code-ai-installer 4.0.0 → 4.0.1-a

package/domains/analytics/locales/en/.agents/skills/trend-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -1,331 +1,347 @@
----
-name: trend-analysis
-description: Identification and evaluation of market trends — strength, impact, timeline, recommendations
----
-# Trend Analysis — Identification and Assessment of Market Trends
-
-## When to use
-- During strategic planning — to understand where the market is heading on a 1-5 year horizon.
-- When searching for new opportunities — to spot emerging trends before they become mainstream.
-- When assessing risks — to identify trends that could disrupt the current business model.
-- When preparing investment materials — trends as justification for market timing.
-
-## Input
-
-| Field | Required | Description |
-|------|:-----------:|----------|
-| Domain / industry | ✅ | Which area to look for trends in |
-| Horizon | ✅ | Time horizon: 1 year / 3 years / 5 years |
-| Product / business | ⬚ | To assess the impact of trends on a specific business |
-| Focus | ⬚ | Technologies / Consumer behavior / Regulation / All |
-| Geography | ⬚ | Global or specific regions |
-| Known trends | ⬚ | What is already being tracked (to expand the list) |
-
-> If mandatory fields are not provided — **ask the user** before starting the analysis. Do not invent.
-
-## Data Sources
-1. **Web Search** — recent analyst reports (McKinsey, BCG, Deloitte, CB Insights, a16z).
-2. **Technological sources** — Gartner Hype Cycle, TechCrunch, Wired, MIT Tech Review.
-3. **Industry reports** — specialized analytical agencies and associations.
-4. **Academic publications** — research from universities and research labs.
-5. **Social signals** — discussions on Reddit, HN, Twitter, specialized conferences.
-6. **Patent databases** — USPTO, EPO (for technological trends).
-
-> For each trend — a minimum of 2 independent sources. Data older than 12 months for fast-changing fields — mark with ⚠️.
-
-### Connection with other skills
-| Skill | What we take | When to call |
-|------|-----------|----------------|
-| `pest-analysis` | Macro factors (P/E/S/T/E/L) as a structured source of trends (step 2) | If a systemic overview of the macro environment is needed |
-| `web-research` | Main tool for gathering trend data (steps 2-4) | At each step — for search and verification |
-| `competitive-analysis` | Technological and strategic trends of competitors (step 3) | To understand who is already adapting |
-| `tam-sam-som` | Size of markets created by trends, CAGR (step 6) | For quantitative impact assessment |
-| `blue-ocean-strategy` | Trends creating new market spaces | If an emerging trend = potential Blue Ocean |
-| `cohort-analysis` | Behavioral trends in retention / engagement (step 3) | For trends in consumer behavior |
-
-## Protocol
-
-### Step 0 — Collect Context
-1. Check the availability of mandatory data.
-2. Determine the breadth of search: narrow domain or broad overview.
-3. Record the horizon and geography.
-4. Define the layers of analysis:
-
-   | Layer | Examples of trends | Sources |
-   |------|----------------|-----------|
-   | Technologies | AI, blockchain, IoT, quantum | Gartner, TechCrunch, patents |
-   | Consumer behavior | Remote work, sustainability, wellness | McKinsey, Reddit, surveys |
-   | Regulation | GDPR, AI Act, ESG requirements | Consultant Plus, EUR-Lex |
-   | Economics | Inflation, recession, EM growth | IMF, World Bank, Central Banks |
-   | Demographics | Aging, urbanization, migration | UN, Rosstat, Eurostat |
-
-### Step 1 — Macro Trends (Mega Trends)
-Via web search, identify 3-5 global macro trends most relevant to the domain:
-- Technological shifts.
-- Demographic changes.
-- Economic factors.
-- Regulatory changes.
-- Social shifts.
-
-> If `$pest-analysis` exists — use factors with a Score ≥ 12 as macro trend candidates.
-
-### Step 2 — Industry Trends
-Dive deep into a specific industry, identifying 5-10 trends:
-- Technological innovations within the industry.
-- New business models and approaches.
-- Changes in the behavior of the target audience.
-- Competitive dynamics (consolidation, new players, disruption).
-
-### Step 3 — Validation (Multiple Sources)
-For each trend, verify:
-
-| Check | Criterion | Result |
-|----------|----------|:---------:|
-| Minimum 2 independent sources | Not from the same analytical company | ✅ / ❌ |
-| Quantitative data | Adoption rate, investments, market growth | ✅ / ⚠️ |
-| Geographical breadth | Observed in more than 1 region | ✅ / ⚠️ |
-| Source recency | ≤ 12 months for fast-moving fields | ✅ / ⚠️ |
-| Hype filter | Actual adoption, not just buzz | ✅ / ❌ |
-
-**If ❌ for any criterion — the trend is marked as "unconfirmed" and moved to the Watch-list.**
-
-### Step 4 — Trend Strength Assessment
-Classify each trend by stage:
-
-| Stage | Adoption | Signs | Example |
-|--------|:--------:|----------|--------|
-| **Emerging** | <5% | Early signals, R&D, pilots, venture investments | Quantum computing for business |
-| **Growing** | 5-25% | Gaining momentum, first commercial products, rising investments | AI content generation |
-| **Mature** | >25% | Mass adoption, steady growth, commoditization | Cloud computing |
-| **Declining** | Decreasing | Replaced by new trends, declining investments | On-premise CRM |
-
-For each — evidence (data confirming the stage).
-
-### Step 5 — Impact Assessment and Scoring
-If a specific product / business is specified — assess the impact of each trend:
-
-| Criterion | Weight | Scale | Description |
-|----------|:---:|:-----:|----------|
-| Impact | 0.35 | 1-10 | How strongly it will affect the business |
-| Likelihood | 0.30 | 1-10 | Probability of realization within the given horizon |
-| Readiness | 0.20 | 1-10 | How ready the business is for the trend (inverted: 10 = not ready) |
-| Speed | 0.15 | 1-10 | Speed of onset (10 = sudden) |
-
-`Trend Score = Σ(weight × score)`
-
-| Threshold | Category | Action |
-|:-----:|-----------|----------|
-| ≥ 7.0 | 🔴 **Must-act** | Immediate actions, budget, team |
-| 5.0-6.9 | 🟡 **Must-watch** | Monitoring, trigger for action |
-| 3.0-4.9 | 🔵 **Experiment** | Pilot experiments, low-cost tests |
-| < 3.0 | ⚪ **Ignore** | Irrelevant for the given business |
-
-**Impact on business metrics** (for the top 5 trends):
-
-| Trend | Metric | Current | Forecast (with trend) | Δ |
-|-------|---------|:-------:|:-------------------:|:-:|
-| [Trend 1] | TAM | $XB | $XB | +X% |
-| [Trend 1] | Margin | XX% | XX% | ±Xpp |
-| [Trend 2] | CAC | $XX | $XX | ±X% |
-
-### Step 6 — Timeline and Adoption
-For each key trend (Score ≥ 5.0):
-
-| Element | Description |
-|---------|----------|
-| Current adoption | XX% in [region] |
-| Forecast adoption | XX% in [N years] |
-| Key milestones | [Event 1 → year], [Event 2 → year] |
-| Tipping point | [What needs to happen for a mass transition] |
-| Accelerating factors| [What will speed up the trend] |
-| Decelerating factors| [What will slow it down] |
-| Window of opportunity | [When to enter so as not to be late] |
-
-### Step 7 — Recommendations
-Based on scoring and timeline:
-
-| Category | Trends | Specific actions |
-|-----------|--------|---------------------|
-| 🔴 **Must-act** | [Trends with Score ≥ 7.0] | [Action + budget + deadline + owner] |
-| 🟡 **Must-watch** | [Score 5.0-6.9] | [What to monitor + trigger to transition to Must-act] |
-| 🔵 **Experiment** | [Score 3.0-4.9] | [Experiment + budget + success metric] |
-| ⚪ **Ignore** | [Score < 3.0] | [Why irrelevant + condition for review] |
-
-## Example — EdTech corporate learning market, RF, 3-year horizon
-
-**Context:** AI-powered corporate learning platform, B2B SaaS, RF.
-
-### Macro Trends
-
-| # | Trend | Layer | Stage | Evidence |
-|---|-------|------|:------:|---------|
-| M1 | AI transformation of all industries | Technologies | Growing (15-20%) | $184B AI market by 2030, CAGR 37% (Grand View Research, 2025) ✅ |
-| M2 | Shortage of qualified personnel | Demographics | Mature (>30%) | 2.5M unfilled vacancies in RF (HH.ru, Q1 2026) ✅ |
-| M3 | AI and data regulation | Regulation | Emerging (<5%) | EU AI Act took effect, RF preparing analog (Kommersant, 2026) ⚠️ |
-
-### Industry Trends
-
-| # | Trend | Stage | Adoption | Evidence | Sources |
-|---|-------|:------:|:--------:|---------|-----------|
-| I1 | AI personalization of learning | Growing | 12% | Duolingo +40% retention with AI (TechCrunch, 2025) | TechCrunch, Gartner ✅ |
-| I2 | LLM generation of learning content | Emerging | 3% | Course cost reduction ×5 (a16z, 2026) | a16z, CB Insights ✅ |
-| I3 | Micro-certifications instead of diplomas | Growing | 18% | Google, IBM, Amazon drop diploma requirement | McKinsey, LinkedIn ✅ |
-| I4 | VR/AR for practical learning | Emerging | 2% | Walmart trains 1M emp. via VR (Forbes, 2025) | Forbes, Gartner ⚠️ |
-| I5 | Cohort-based learning (CBC) | Growing | 8% | Maven, Reforge — $100M+ GMV (CB Insights) | CB Insights ✅ |
-
-### Scoring
-
-| # | Trend | Impact | Likelih. | Readiness (inv.) | Speed | **Score** | Category |
-|---|-------|:------:|:--------:|:-----------------:|:-----:|:---------:|:---------:|
-| I1 | AI personalization | 9 | 8 | 3 | 6 | **7.2** | 🔴 Must-act |
-| M2 | Personnel shortage | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | **7.0** | 🔴 Must-act |
-| I2 | LLM content generation | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | **7.5** | 🔴 Must-act |
-| I3 | Micro-certifications | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | **5.9** | 🟡 Must-watch |
-| M3 | AI regulation | 7 | 5 | 8 | 3 | **6.0** | 🟡 Must-watch |
-| I4 | VR/AR learning | 5 | 3 | 9 | 2 | **4.8** | 🔵 Experiment |
-| I5 | CBC | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | **4.3** | 🔵 Experiment |
-
-### Impact on business metrics (top-3)
-
-| Trend | Metric | Current | With trend (3 years) | Δ |
-|-------|---------|:-------:|:------------------:|:-:|
-| I1: AI personalization | Retention M6 | 48% | 62% | +14pp |
-| I2: LLM generation | Cost per course | $5K | $1K | -80% |
-| M2: Personnel shortage | TAM corp. learning | $1.8B | $2.7B | +50% |
-
-### Recommendations
-
-| Category | Trend | Action | Budget | Deadline |
-|:---------:|-------|----------|:------:|------|
-| 🔴 Must-act | I1: AI personalization | Launch adaptive learning paths | $200K | Q2 2026 |
-| 🔴 Must-act | I2: LLM generation | MVP of course generator on GPT-4 | $80K | Q3 2026 |
-| 🔴 Must-act | M2: Personnel shortage | Position as "ROI on upskilling" | $30K | Q2 2026 |
-| 🟡 Must-watch | I3: Micro-certifications | Monitor adoption in RF. Trigger: >25% of companies accept | — | Quarterly |
-| 🟡 Must-watch | M3: AI regulation | Track draft law. Trigger: first reading in Duma | — | Monthly |
-| 🔵 Experiment | I4: VR/AR | Pilot with 1 client (VR module for safety training) | $20K | Q4 2026 |
-
-## Validation (Quality Gate)
-
-- [ ] Identified at least 3 macro trends and 5 industry trends
-- [ ] For each trend — minimum 2 independent sources; unvalidated ones moved to Watch-list
-- [ ] Each trend classified by stage (Emerging / Growing / Mature / Declining) with adoption %
-- [ ] Trend Score calculated by formula (Impact × 0.35 + Likelihood × 0.30 + Readiness × 0.20 + Speed × 0.15)
-- [ ] Trends categorized: must-act (≥7.0) / must-watch (5.0-6.9) / experiment (3.0-4.9) / ignore (<3.0)
-- [ ] For must-act trends: impact on specific business metrics (TAM, margin, CAC, retention)
-- [ ] Timeline and tipping points defined for trends with Score ≥ 5.0
-- [ ] Hype filter passed: trends without actual adoption filtered out
-- [ ] Recommendations are specific: action + budget + deadline (must-act), trigger (must-watch), experiment (experiment)
-- [ ] Sources are current (≤ 12 months for fast-moving fields); outdated marked ⚠️
-
-> If validation fails — iterate until it passes, do not hand off further.
-
-## Handoff
-The output of `$trend-analysis` acts as input for:
-- **Strategist / Mediator** — trends as context for strategic decisions.
-- **`tam-sam-som`** — market growth based on trends (CAGR, drivers).
-- **`competitive-analysis`** — trends shaping competitive dynamics.
-- **`pest-analysis`** — enriching macro factors with trend data.
-- **`jtbd-analysis`** — new Jobs spawned by trends.
-- **`blue-ocean-strategy`** — emerging trends as a source of new market spaces.
-
-Output format: trend matrix with Trend Score + impact on metrics + recommendations by categories. When handing off — use `$handoff`.
-
-## Anti-patterns
-
-| Mistake | Why it hurts | How to do it right |
-|--------|-------------|---------------|
-| One source per trend | Risk of mistaking hype for a trend | Minimum 2 independent sources; 1 = ⚠️ |
-| No stage classification | Unclear how to react | Emerging / Growing / Mature / Declining + adoption % |
-| Trends without quantitative data | Impossible to assess scale | Adoption rate, investments, market growth |
-| Only technological trends | Missed regulatory and social ones | 5 layers: tech, behavior, regulation, economics, demographics |
-| No timeline | Unclear when to act | Timeline + tipping point + window of opportunity |
-| All trends = must-act | No prioritization, paralysis | Scoring → 4 categories with thresholds |
-| Outdated sources | Trends change quickly | ≤ 12 months for fast-moving fields |
-| Impact without metrics | "Strong impact" is not actionable | Impact on TAM (±X%), margin (±Xpp), CAC (±X%) |
-| Hype without substance | Buzz ≠ trend | Hype filter: real adoption, 2+ sources, >1 region |
-
-## Output Template
-
-```
-### Trend Analysis — [Domain / Industry]
-
-**Horizon:** [1 / 3 / 5 years]
-**Geography:** [global / regions]
-**Focus:** [tech / behavior / regulation / all]
-**Assessment Date:** [date]
-
----
-
-#### Trend Matrix
-
-| # | Trend | Layer | Stage | Adoption | Impact | Likelih. | Readiness | Speed | **Score** | Category |
-|---|-------|------|:------:|:--------:|:------:|:--------:|:---------:|:-----:|:---------:|:---------:|
-| 1 | [trend] | [layer] | [stage] | XX% | X | X | X | X | **X.X** | 🔴/🟡/🔵/⚪ |
-
-Thresholds: 🔴 Must-act (≥7.0) | 🟡 Must-watch (5.0-6.9) | 🔵 Experiment (3.0-4.9) | ⚪ Ignore (<3.0)
-
----
-
-#### Macro Trends
-
-##### 1. [Name] — [Stage]
-- **Description:** [2-3 sentences]
-- **Evidence:** [data, numbers]
-- **Sources:** [source 1 ✅], [source 2 ✅]
-- **Timeline:** [mass adoption by what year]
-- **Impact:** [threat / opportunity — description]
-
----
-
-#### Industry Trends
-
-##### 1. [Name] — [Stage]
-- **Description:** [2-3 sentences]
-- **Adoption:** [current % → forecast %]
-- **Key players:** [who is driving the trend]
-- **Tipping point:** [what needs to happen]
-- **Window of opportunity:** [when to enter]
-- **Sources:** [source 1], [source 2]
-
----
-
-#### Impact on Business Metrics (top-5)
-
-| Trend | Metric | Current | With trend | Δ |
-|-------|---------|:-------:|:---------:|:-:|
-| [trend] | [TAM / margin / CAC / retention] | [value] | [value] | [±X%/pp] |
-
----
-
-#### Recommendations
-
-**🔴 Must-act:**
-| # | Trend | Action | Budget | Deadline | Owner |
-|---|-------|----------|:------:|------|---------------|
-| 1 | [trend] | [action] | $XK | [when] | [who] |
-
-**🟡 Must-watch:**
-| # | Trend | What to monitor | Trigger for Must-act |
-|---|-------|----------------|----------------------|
-| 1 | [trend] | [metric / event] | [condition] |
-
-**🔵 Experiment:**
-| # | Trend | Experiment | Budget | Success metric |
-|---|-------|-------------|:------:|----------------|
-| 1 | [trend] | [pilot] | $XK | [what to measure] |
-
-**⚪ Ignore:**
-| # | Trend | Why | Review condition |
-|---|-------|-------|---------------------|
-| 1 | [trend] | [reason] | [when to review] |
-
----
-
-#### Sources and Assumptions
-
-| # | Fact / Assumption | Source | Date | Confidence |
-|---|-------------------|----------|------|:-------------:|
-| 1 | [Fact] | [Source] | [Date] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
-
-Legend: ✅ Verified (2+ sources) | ⚠️ Estimated (1 source) | 🔮 Assumed (expert estimate)
-```
+---
+name: trend-analysis
+description: Identification and evaluation of market trends — strength, impact, timeline, recommendations
+type: triggered
+domain: analytics
+owners:
+  - data_analyst
+gates:
+  - DATA_ANALYST
+tech: []
+topic: []
+triggers:
+  - trend-analysis
+  - анализ трендов
+  - тренды
+  - trend identification
+related: []
+budget_lines: 347
+schema_version: 1
+---
+# Trend Analysis — Identification and Assessment of Market Trends
+
+## When to use
+- During strategic planning — to understand where the market is heading on a 1-5 year horizon.
+- When searching for new opportunities — to spot emerging trends before they become mainstream.
+- When assessing risks — to identify trends that could disrupt the current business model.
+- When preparing investment materials — trends as justification for market timing.
+
+## Input
+
+| Field | Required | Description |
+|------|:-----------:|----------|
+| Domain / industry | ✅ | Which area to look for trends in |
+| Horizon | ✅ | Time horizon: 1 year / 3 years / 5 years |
+| Product / business | ⬚ | To assess the impact of trends on a specific business |
+| Focus | ⬚ | Technologies / Consumer behavior / Regulation / All |
+| Geography | ⬚ | Global or specific regions |
+| Known trends | ⬚ | What is already being tracked (to expand the list) |
+
+> If mandatory fields are not provided — **ask the user** before starting the analysis. Do not invent.
+
+## Data Sources
+1. **Web Search** — recent analyst reports (McKinsey, BCG, Deloitte, CB Insights, a16z).
+2. **Technological sources** — Gartner Hype Cycle, TechCrunch, Wired, MIT Tech Review.
+3. **Industry reports** — specialized analytical agencies and associations.
+4. **Academic publications** — research from universities and research labs.
+5. **Social signals** — discussions on Reddit, HN, Twitter, specialized conferences.
+6. **Patent databases** — USPTO, EPO (for technological trends).
+
+> For each trend — a minimum of 2 independent sources. Data older than 12 months for fast-changing fields — mark with ⚠️.
+
+### Connection with other skills
+| Skill | What we take | When to call |
+|------|-----------|----------------|
+| `pest-analysis` | Macro factors (P/E/S/T/E/L) as a structured source of trends (step 2) | If a systemic overview of the macro environment is needed |
+| `web-research` | Main tool for gathering trend data (steps 2-4) | At each step — for search and verification |
+| `competitive-analysis` | Technological and strategic trends of competitors (step 3) | To understand who is already adapting |
+| `tam-sam-som` | Size of markets created by trends, CAGR (step 6) | For quantitative impact assessment |
+| `blue-ocean-strategy` | Trends creating new market spaces | If an emerging trend = potential Blue Ocean |
+| `cohort-analysis` | Behavioral trends in retention / engagement (step 3) | For trends in consumer behavior |
+
+## Protocol
+
+### Step 0 — Collect Context
+1. Check the availability of mandatory data.
+2. Determine the breadth of search: narrow domain or broad overview.
+3. Record the horizon and geography.
+4. Define the layers of analysis:
+
+   | Layer | Examples of trends | Sources |
+   |------|----------------|-----------|
+   | Technologies | AI, blockchain, IoT, quantum | Gartner, TechCrunch, patents |
+   | Consumer behavior | Remote work, sustainability, wellness | McKinsey, Reddit, surveys |
+   | Regulation | GDPR, AI Act, ESG requirements | Consultant Plus, EUR-Lex |
+   | Economics | Inflation, recession, EM growth | IMF, World Bank, Central Banks |
+   | Demographics | Aging, urbanization, migration | UN, Rosstat, Eurostat |
+
+### Step 1 — Macro Trends (Mega Trends)
+Via web search, identify 3-5 global macro trends most relevant to the domain:
+- Technological shifts.
+- Demographic changes.
+- Economic factors.
+- Regulatory changes.
+- Social shifts.
+
+> If `$pest-analysis` exists — use factors with a Score ≥ 12 as macro trend candidates.
+
+### Step 2 — Industry Trends
+Dive deep into a specific industry, identifying 5-10 trends:
+- Technological innovations within the industry.
+- New business models and approaches.
+- Changes in the behavior of the target audience.
+- Competitive dynamics (consolidation, new players, disruption).
+
+### Step 3 — Validation (Multiple Sources)
+For each trend, verify:
+
+| Check | Criterion | Result |
+|----------|----------|:---------:|
+| Minimum 2 independent sources | Not from the same analytical company | ✅ / ❌ |
+| Quantitative data | Adoption rate, investments, market growth | ✅ / ⚠️ |
+| Geographical breadth | Observed in more than 1 region | ✅ / ⚠️ |
+| Source recency | ≤ 12 months for fast-moving fields | ✅ / ⚠️ |
+| Hype filter | Actual adoption, not just buzz | ✅ / ❌ |
+
+**If ❌ for any criterion — the trend is marked as "unconfirmed" and moved to the Watch-list.**
+
+### Step 4 — Trend Strength Assessment
+Classify each trend by stage:
+
+| Stage | Adoption | Signs | Example |
+|--------|:--------:|----------|--------|
+| **Emerging** | <5% | Early signals, R&D, pilots, venture investments | Quantum computing for business |
+| **Growing** | 5-25% | Gaining momentum, first commercial products, rising investments | AI content generation |
+| **Mature** | >25% | Mass adoption, steady growth, commoditization | Cloud computing |
+| **Declining** | Decreasing | Replaced by new trends, declining investments | On-premise CRM |
+
+For each — evidence (data confirming the stage).
+
+### Step 5 — Impact Assessment and Scoring
+If a specific product / business is specified — assess the impact of each trend:
+
+| Criterion | Weight | Scale | Description |
+|----------|:---:|:-----:|----------|
+| Impact | 0.35 | 1-10 | How strongly it will affect the business |
+| Likelihood | 0.30 | 1-10 | Probability of realization within the given horizon |
+| Readiness | 0.20 | 1-10 | How ready the business is for the trend (inverted: 10 = not ready) |
+| Speed | 0.15 | 1-10 | Speed of onset (10 = sudden) |
+
+`Trend Score = Σ(weight × score)`
+
+| Threshold | Category | Action |
+|:-----:|-----------|----------|
+| ≥ 7.0 | 🔴 **Must-act** | Immediate actions, budget, team |
+| 5.0-6.9 | 🟡 **Must-watch** | Monitoring, trigger for action |
+| 3.0-4.9 | 🔵 **Experiment** | Pilot experiments, low-cost tests |
+| < 3.0 | ⚪ **Ignore** | Irrelevant for the given business |
+
+**Impact on business metrics** (for the top 5 trends):
+
+| Trend | Metric | Current | Forecast (with trend) | Δ |
+|-------|---------|:-------:|:-------------------:|:-:|
+| [Trend 1] | TAM | $XB | $XB | +X% |
+| [Trend 1] | Margin | XX% | XX% | ±Xpp |
+| [Trend 2] | CAC | $XX | $XX | ±X% |
+
+### Step 6 — Timeline and Adoption
+For each key trend (Score ≥ 5.0):
+
+| Element | Description |
+|---------|----------|
+| Current adoption | XX% in [region] |
+| Forecast adoption | XX% in [N years] |
+| Key milestones | [Event 1 → year], [Event 2 → year] |
+| Tipping point | [What needs to happen for a mass transition] |
+| Accelerating factors| [What will speed up the trend] |
+| Decelerating factors| [What will slow it down] |
+| Window of opportunity | [When to enter so as not to be late] |
+
+### Step 7 — Recommendations
+Based on scoring and timeline:
+
+| Category | Trends | Specific actions |
+|-----------|--------|---------------------|
+| 🔴 **Must-act** | [Trends with Score ≥ 7.0] | [Action + budget + deadline + owner] |
+| 🟡 **Must-watch** | [Score 5.0-6.9] | [What to monitor + trigger to transition to Must-act] |
+| 🔵 **Experiment** | [Score 3.0-4.9] | [Experiment + budget + success metric] |
+| ⚪ **Ignore** | [Score < 3.0] | [Why irrelevant + condition for review] |
+
+## Example — EdTech corporate learning market, RF, 3-year horizon
+
+**Context:** AI-powered corporate learning platform, B2B SaaS, RF.
+
+### Macro Trends
+
+| # | Trend | Layer | Stage | Evidence |
+|---|-------|------|:------:|---------|
+| M1 | AI transformation of all industries | Technologies | Growing (15-20%) | $184B AI market by 2030, CAGR 37% (Grand View Research, 2025) ✅ |
+| M2 | Shortage of qualified personnel | Demographics | Mature (>30%) | 2.5M unfilled vacancies in RF (HH.ru, Q1 2026) ✅ |
+| M3 | AI and data regulation | Regulation | Emerging (<5%) | EU AI Act took effect, RF preparing analog (Kommersant, 2026) ⚠️ |
+
+### Industry Trends
+
+| # | Trend | Stage | Adoption | Evidence | Sources |
+|---|-------|:------:|:--------:|---------|-----------|
+| I1 | AI personalization of learning | Growing | 12% | Duolingo +40% retention with AI (TechCrunch, 2025) | TechCrunch, Gartner ✅ |
+| I2 | LLM generation of learning content | Emerging | 3% | Course cost reduction ×5 (a16z, 2026) | a16z, CB Insights ✅ |
+| I3 | Micro-certifications instead of diplomas | Growing | 18% | Google, IBM, Amazon drop diploma requirement | McKinsey, LinkedIn ✅ |
+| I4 | VR/AR for practical learning | Emerging | 2% | Walmart trains 1M emp. via VR (Forbes, 2025) | Forbes, Gartner ⚠️ |
+| I5 | Cohort-based learning (CBC) | Growing | 8% | Maven, Reforge — $100M+ GMV (CB Insights) | CB Insights ✅ |
+
+### Scoring
+
+| # | Trend | Impact | Likelih. | Readiness (inv.) | Speed | **Score** | Category |
+|---|-------|:------:|:--------:|:-----------------:|:-----:|:---------:|:---------:|
+| I1 | AI personalization | 9 | 8 | 3 | 6 | **7.2** | 🔴 Must-act |
+| M2 | Personnel shortage | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | **7.0** | 🔴 Must-act |
+| I2 | LLM content generation | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | **7.5** | 🔴 Must-act |
+| I3 | Micro-certifications | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | **5.9** | 🟡 Must-watch |
+| M3 | AI regulation | 7 | 5 | 8 | 3 | **6.0** | 🟡 Must-watch |
+| I4 | VR/AR learning | 5 | 3 | 9 | 2 | **4.8** | 🔵 Experiment |
+| I5 | CBC | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | **4.3** | 🔵 Experiment |
+
+### Impact on business metrics (top-3)
+
+| Trend | Metric | Current | With trend (3 years) | Δ |
+|-------|---------|:-------:|:------------------:|:-:|
+| I1: AI personalization | Retention M6 | 48% | 62% | +14pp |
+| I2: LLM generation | Cost per course | $5K | $1K | -80% |
+| M2: Personnel shortage | TAM corp. learning | $1.8B | $2.7B | +50% |
+
+### Recommendations
+
+| Category | Trend | Action | Budget | Deadline |
+|:---------:|-------|----------|:------:|------|
+| 🔴 Must-act | I1: AI personalization | Launch adaptive learning paths | $200K | Q2 2026 |
+| 🔴 Must-act | I2: LLM generation | MVP of course generator on GPT-4 | $80K | Q3 2026 |
+| 🔴 Must-act | M2: Personnel shortage | Position as "ROI on upskilling" | $30K | Q2 2026 |
+| 🟡 Must-watch | I3: Micro-certifications | Monitor adoption in RF. Trigger: >25% of companies accept | — | Quarterly |
+| 🟡 Must-watch | M3: AI regulation | Track draft law. Trigger: first reading in Duma | — | Monthly |
+| 🔵 Experiment | I4: VR/AR | Pilot with 1 client (VR module for safety training) | $20K | Q4 2026 |
+
+## Validation (Quality Gate)
+
+- [ ] Identified at least 3 macro trends and 5 industry trends
+- [ ] For each trend — minimum 2 independent sources; unvalidated ones moved to Watch-list
+- [ ] Each trend classified by stage (Emerging / Growing / Mature / Declining) with adoption %
+- [ ] Trend Score calculated by formula (Impact × 0.35 + Likelihood × 0.30 + Readiness × 0.20 + Speed × 0.15)
+- [ ] Trends categorized: must-act (≥7.0) / must-watch (5.0-6.9) / experiment (3.0-4.9) / ignore (<3.0)
+- [ ] For must-act trends: impact on specific business metrics (TAM, margin, CAC, retention)
+- [ ] Timeline and tipping points defined for trends with Score ≥ 5.0
+- [ ] Hype filter passed: trends without actual adoption filtered out
+- [ ] Recommendations are specific: action + budget + deadline (must-act), trigger (must-watch), experiment (experiment)
+- [ ] Sources are current (≤ 12 months for fast-moving fields); outdated marked ⚠️
+
+> If validation fails — iterate until it passes, do not hand off further.
+
+## Handoff
+The output of `$trend-analysis` acts as input for:
+- **Strategist / Mediator** — trends as context for strategic decisions.
+- **`tam-sam-som`** — market growth based on trends (CAGR, drivers).
+- **`competitive-analysis`** — trends shaping competitive dynamics.
+- **`pest-analysis`** — enriching macro factors with trend data.
+- **`jtbd-analysis`** — new Jobs spawned by trends.
+- **`blue-ocean-strategy`** — emerging trends as a source of new market spaces.
+
+Output format: trend matrix with Trend Score + impact on metrics + recommendations by categories. When handing off — use `$handoff`.
+
+## Anti-patterns
+
+| Mistake | Why it hurts | How to do it right |
+|--------|-------------|---------------|
+| One source per trend | Risk of mistaking hype for a trend | Minimum 2 independent sources; 1 = ⚠️ |
+| No stage classification | Unclear how to react | Emerging / Growing / Mature / Declining + adoption % |
+| Trends without quantitative data | Impossible to assess scale | Adoption rate, investments, market growth |
+| Only technological trends | Missed regulatory and social ones | 5 layers: tech, behavior, regulation, economics, demographics |
+| No timeline | Unclear when to act | Timeline + tipping point + window of opportunity |
+| All trends = must-act | No prioritization, paralysis | Scoring → 4 categories with thresholds |
+| Outdated sources | Trends change quickly | ≤ 12 months for fast-moving fields |
+| Impact without metrics | "Strong impact" is not actionable | Impact on TAM (±X%), margin (±Xpp), CAC (±X%) |
+| Hype without substance | Buzz ≠ trend | Hype filter: real adoption, 2+ sources, >1 region |
+
+## Output Template
+
+```
+### Trend Analysis — [Domain / Industry]
+
+**Horizon:** [1 / 3 / 5 years]
+**Geography:** [global / regions]
+**Focus:** [tech / behavior / regulation / all]
+**Assessment Date:** [date]
+
+---
+
+#### Trend Matrix
+
+| # | Trend | Layer | Stage | Adoption | Impact | Likelih. | Readiness | Speed | **Score** | Category |
+|---|-------|------|:------:|:--------:|:------:|:--------:|:---------:|:-----:|:---------:|:---------:|
+| 1 | [trend] | [layer] | [stage] | XX% | X | X | X | X | **X.X** | 🔴/🟡/🔵/⚪ |
+
+Thresholds: 🔴 Must-act (≥7.0) | 🟡 Must-watch (5.0-6.9) | 🔵 Experiment (3.0-4.9) | ⚪ Ignore (<3.0)
+
+---
+
+#### Macro Trends
+
+##### 1. [Name] — [Stage]
+- **Description:** [2-3 sentences]
+- **Evidence:** [data, numbers]
+- **Sources:** [source 1 ✅], [source 2 ✅]
+- **Timeline:** [mass adoption by what year]
+- **Impact:** [threat / opportunity — description]
+
+---
+
+#### Industry Trends
+
+##### 1. [Name] — [Stage]
+- **Description:** [2-3 sentences]
+- **Adoption:** [current % → forecast %]
+- **Key players:** [who is driving the trend]
+- **Tipping point:** [what needs to happen]
+- **Window of opportunity:** [when to enter]
+- **Sources:** [source 1], [source 2]
+
+---
+
+#### Impact on Business Metrics (top-5)
+
+| Trend | Metric | Current | With trend | Δ |
+|-------|---------|:-------:|:---------:|:-:|
+| [trend] | [TAM / margin / CAC / retention] | [value] | [value] | [±X%/pp] |
+
+---
+
+#### Recommendations
+
+**🔴 Must-act:**
+| # | Trend | Action | Budget | Deadline | Owner |
+|---|-------|----------|:------:|------|---------------|
+| 1 | [trend] | [action] | $XK | [when] | [who] |
+
+**🟡 Must-watch:**
+| # | Trend | What to monitor | Trigger for Must-act |
+|---|-------|----------------|----------------------|
+| 1 | [trend] | [metric / event] | [condition] |
+
+**🔵 Experiment:**
+| # | Trend | Experiment | Budget | Success metric |
+|---|-------|-------------|:------:|----------------|
+| 1 | [trend] | [pilot] | $XK | [what to measure] |
+
+**⚪ Ignore:**
+| # | Trend | Why | Review condition |
+|---|-------|-------|---------------------|
+| 1 | [trend] | [reason] | [when to review] |
+
+---
+
+#### Sources and Assumptions
+
+| # | Fact / Assumption | Source | Date | Confidence |
+|---|-------------------|----------|------|:-------------:|
+| 1 | [Fact] | [Source] | [Date] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
+
+Legend: ✅ Verified (2+ sources) | ⚠️ Estimated (1 source) | 🔮 Assumed (expert estimate)
+```