code-ai-installer 4.0.0 → 4.0.1-a

package/domains/analytics/locales/en/.agents/skills/bcg-matrix/SKILL.md

@@ -1,329 +1,345 @@
----
-name: bcg-matrix
-description: Portfolio analysis — distribution of business units by market growth and relative share
----
-# BCG Matrix — Business Unit Portfolio Analysis
-
-## When to use
-- When managing a **portfolio of products or business units** — resource allocation.
-- When making decisions about **investments, divestments, or liquidation** of business lines.
-- When **strategic planning** — balancing the portfolio by lifecycle phases.
-- When preparing for **M&A** — assessing target companies or divisions.
-
-## Input
-
-| Field | Required | Description |
-|------|:-----------:|----------|
-| List of business units | ✅ | Products, brands, divisions, or segments |
-| Market data | ✅ | Market size, growth rates for each segment |
-| Market shares | ✅ | Company's share and the largest competitor's share |
-| Revenue by units | ⬚ | For visualizing bubble sizes and calculating cash flow |
-| Margin by units | ⬚ | For calculating real cash flow (gross margin or contribution margin) |
-| Threshold values | ⬚ | Custom thresholds for growth and share (default: 10% growth, 1.0 share) |
-| Horizon | ⬚ | Analysis period (default — current year + 2-3 year forecast) |
-
-> If required fields are not provided — **ask** the user, do not generate assumptions.
-
-## Data Sources
-1. Internal reporting — revenue, margin, CAPEX by business units.
-2. Market research — market shares, market sizes.
-3. Industry reports — segment growth rates, forecasts.
-4. Competitive intelligence — shares of the main competitors.
-5. Financial models — cash flows, ROI by direction.
-
-### Connection with other skills
-| Skill | What we take | When to call |
-|------|-----------|----------------|
-| `tam-sam-som` | Volume and market potential for each BU (steps 0, 2) | If there is no data on market size or growth |
-| `competitive-analysis` | Competitor shares, positioning (step 1) | If the share of the largest competitor is unknown |
-| `ansoff-matrix` | Growth strategies for Stars and Question Marks (step 5) | After classification — to develop growth strategies |
-| `swot-analysis` | Strengths/weaknesses of BUs for invest/divest decisions (step 5) | When decisions regarding Question Marks are unobvious |
-| `web-research` | Verification of market data, trends | If data is missing or outdated (>12 months) |
-
-## Protocol
-
-### Step 0 — Context Preparation
-1. Define the portfolio: list all analyzed business units (BUs).
-2. Define the relevant market for each BU.
-3. Establish threshold values:
-   - Market growth: boundary high/low (usually 10% or portfolio average).
-   - Relative market share: boundary high/low (usually 1.0 — parity with the leader).
-   - For mature industries (FMCG, manufacturing), it is permissible to lower the growth threshold to 5%.
-4. Collect data: market shares, growth rates, revenue, margin.
-
-> Every market fact  — specifying the source and date. Data older than 12 months — mark with ⚠️ and verify via `web-research`.
-
-### Step 1 — Calculation of Relative Market Share
-1. For each BU, calculate:
-
-   | BU | Company share | Largest competitor's share | **Rel. share** | Interpretation |
-   |----|:-------------:|:--------------------------:|:-------------:|---------------|
-   | [BU1] | XX% | XX% | X.X | Leader / Not a leader |
-
-2. Value > 1.0: company is a market leader.
-3. Value < 1.0: company is not a leader.
-4. In the absence of exact data — use an expert assessment marked with 🔮.
-
-### Step 2 — Determination of Market Growth Rates
-1. For each BU, determine the market CAGR for the last 3 years **and** forecast for 3 years.
-2. Classify: above threshold = high growth, below = low growth.
-3. Record the trend: accelerating ↗, stable →, decelerating ↘.
-
-   | BU | CAGR (fact 3Y) | Forecast (3Y) | Trend | Classification |
-   |----|:--------------:|:------------:|:-----:|:-------------:|
-   | [BU1] | XX% | XX% | ↗/→/↘ | High / Low |
-
-### Step 3 — Quadrant Classification
-1. **Stars** — high growth + high share:
-   - Leaders in growing markets, require significant investments.
-   - When growth slows down, they transform into Cash Cows.
-2. **Cash Cows** — low growth + high share:
-   - Cash generators, require minimal investments.
-   - Finance Stars and Question Marks.
-3. **Question Marks** — high growth + low share:
-   - Have potential, but require major investments to grow share.
-   - Key decision: invest aggressively or exit.
-4. **Dogs** — low growth + low share:
-   - Minimal strategic value.
-   - Candidates for optimization, sale, or liquidation.
-   - **Exception**: Dogs with high synergy (shared infrastructure, complementarity, anchor customer) — assess separately.
-
-### Step 4 — Building the Matrix
-1. Place each BU on a 2×2 matrix.
-2. Bubble size — proportional to revenue.
-3. Add trend arrows: where the BU is heading over a 2-3 year horizon.
-4. Mark BUs on the boundary of quadrants (±10% of the threshold) — label as "borderline".
-
-### Step 5 — Strategy and Decision Scoring
-1. For each BU, determine the strategic action:
-
-   | Quadrant | Basic strategy | Nuances |
-   |----------|-------------------|--------|
-   | **Stars** | Invest to maintain leadership | If trend is ↘ — prepare transition to Cash Cow mode |
-   | **Cash Cows** | Harvest, minimal investments | If trend is ↗ (market reviving) — consider re-investments |
-   | **Question Marks** | Selective investments **or** divestment | Decision via scoring (see below) |
-   | **Dogs** | Optimize, sell or liquidate | Check synergy before decision |
-
-2. **Scoring for Question Marks** (invest vs divest):
-
-   | Criterion | Weight | Scale | Invest if |
-   |----------|:---:|:-----:|-------------|
-   | Market size (TAM) | 0.20 | 1-10 | ≥ 7 — large market |
-   | Competitive position | 0.20 | 1-10 | ≥ 5 — chance for leadership exists |
-   | Synergy with portfolio | 0.15 | 1-10 | ≥ 6 — shared channels, technologies |
-   | Cost of achieving leadership | 0.20 | 1-10 (invert.) | ≥ 5 — manageable investments |
-   | Strategic importance | 0.15 | 1-10 | ≥ 7 — critical for the future |
-   | Target margin | 0.10 | 1-10 | ≥ 6 — pays off |
-
-   `Score = Σ(weight × score)`. Threshold: **≥ 6.0 → Invest**, **< 6.0 → Divest**.
-
-3. **Scoring for Dogs** (keep vs exit):
-
-   | Criterion | Keep if |
-   |----------|----------|
-   | Synergy with Cows/Stars | High — shared infrastructure, channels |
-   | Cash flow | Positive — does not consume resources |
-   | Exit barrier | High — contractual obligations, reputation |
-   | Strategic anchor | Yes — needed to retain a key customer |
-
-   If no criterion is met — recommend exit.
-
-### Step 6 — Portfolio Cash Flow Quantification
-1. Calculate cash flow for each quadrant:
-
-   | Quadrant | Revenue | Margin | Cash generation | Investments (CAPEX + OPEX) | **Net Cash Flow** |
-   |----------|:-------:|:-----:|:---------------:|:-------------------------:|:-----------------:|
-   | Stars | $XXM | XX% | $XXM | -$XXM | -/+$XXM |
-   | Cash Cows | $XXM | XX% | $XXM | -$XM | +$XXM |
-   | Question Marks | $XXM | XX% | $XM | -$XXM | -$XXM |
-   | Dogs | $XXM | XX% | $XM | -$XM | ±$XM |
-   | **Total** | | | | | **±$XXM** |
-
-2. Check balance: **Net Cash Flow of Cash Cows ≥ Net Cash Drain of Stars + Question Marks**.
-3. If imbalanced — reconsider investments or accelerate divestments.
-
-### Step 7 — Trajectory Analysis and Scenarios
-1. For each BU, forecast migration between quadrants over a 2-3 year horizon:
-
-   | BU | Now | In 2-3 years | Migration driver |
-   |----|:------:|:--------------:|------------------|
-   | [BU1] | ★ Star | $ Cow | Market slows down (CAGR XX% → X%) |
-   | [BU2] | ? Question | ★ Star / ✕ Dog | Depends on investments |
-
-2. Determine **critical forks**: BUs whose fate depends on decisions made now.
-3. For the top-3 critical BUs — 3 scenarios:
-
-   | BU | Scenario | Result in 3 years | Probability | Condition |
-   |----|----------|:----------------------:|:-----------:|---------|
-   | [BU2] | Invest aggressively | ★ Star, share 1.3 | 40% | +$XM investments, market grows ≥ XX% |
-   | [BU2] | Maintain current | ? Question → ✕ Dog | 45% | Share stagnates, competitors grow |
-   | [BU2] | Divest now | Exit with $XM | 15% | If buyer is found |
-
-### Step 8 — Synthesis and Recommendations
-1. Formulate portfolio strategy: overall direction and logic.
-2. Determine TOP priorities for investments and divestments.
-3. Record risks of the current portfolio configuration.
-4. Determine the frequency of review (annually or upon significant market changes).
-5. Establish go/no-go gates for each invest/divest decision.
-
-## Example — IT Holding with 5 products
-
-**Context:** IT holding, 5 products. Growth threshold: 10%, share threshold: 1.0. Total revenue $85M.
-
-| BU | Market | Share | Leader's share | Rel. share | CAGR | Revenue | Quadrant |
-|----|-------|:----:|:-----------:|:---------:|:----:|:-------:|:--------:|
-| CRM platform | CRM for SMB | 28% | 22% | **1.27** | 8% | $30M | $ Cow |
-| Cloud analytics | BI/Analytics | 15% | 35% | **0.43** | 22% | $18M | ? Question |
-| Cybersecurity | SMB Security | 32% | 25% | **1.28** | 18% | $20M | ★ Star |
-| Corp. messenger | Team Comms | 5% | 40% | **0.13** | 4% | $7M | ✕ Dog |
-| AI assistant | AI Productivity | 12% | 18% | **0.67** | 35% | $10M | ? Question |
-
-**Scoring Question Marks:**
-
-| Criterion | Cloud analytics | AI assistant |
-|----------|:------------------:|:------------:|
-| Market size | 7 | 9 |
-| Competitive position | 4 | 6 |
-| Synergy | 8 (+ CRM, + Security) | 7 (+ CRM) |
-| Cost of leadership (inv.) | 3 (expensive, leader is far) | 6 (fragmented market) |
-| Strategic importance | 6 | 9 |
-| Target margin | 7 | 5 |
-| **Score** | **5.5 → Divest** | **7.0 → Invest** |
-
-**Scoring Dog — Corp. messenger:**
-- Synergy: low (separate infrastructure) — no
-- Cash flow: weakly positive (+$0.3M) — weak "yes"
-- Exit barrier: low — no
-- Strategic anchor: no → **Recommendation: exit (sale)**
-
-**Cash flow balance:**
-- Cows generate: +$12M → Star consumes -$6M, AI assistant -$4M → Balance: +$2M ✅
-
-**Decisions:**
-1. CRM platform (Cow): harvest, allocate $12M to Star and AI
-2. Cybersecurity (Star): invest $6M, maintain leadership
-3. AI assistant (Question → Invest): $4M, goal — share 1.0 in 2 years
-4. Cloud analytics (Question → Divest): sell or partner
-5. Corp. messenger (Dog → Exit): sell, expected price $5-8M
-
-## Validation (Quality Gate)
-
-- [ ] All business units are classified into quadrants with numerical data
-- [ ] Relative market share calculated correctly (share / largest competitor's share)
-- [ ] Market growth rates backed by data (CAGR fact + forecast)
-- [ ] Threshold values are set and justified for the industry
-- [ ] Question Marks evaluated via scoring model (invest vs divest)
-- [ ] Dogs checked for synergy prior to exit decision
-- [ ] Portfolio cash flow is quantified: Cows cover Stars + Question Marks
-- [ ] Migration trajectories defined for each BU over a 2-3 year horizon
-- [ ] Scenario analysis conducted for top-3 critical BUs
-- [ ] Trends and dynamics accounted for (arrows ↗/→/↘)
-- [ ] Data sources indicated; data older than 12 months marked with ⚠️
-- [ ] Go/no-go gates defined for each invest/divest decision
-
-## Handoff
-Result is handed over to:
-- **Strategist / Mediator** — to formulate the portfolio strategy and budgeting.
-- **`ansoff-matrix`** — to develop growth strategies for Stars and invested Question Marks.
-- **`unit-economics`** — to calculate detailed unit economics per BU.
-- **`competitive-analysis`** — for in-depth competitor analysis in low-share quadrants.
-
-Handoff format: filled output template + Question Marks scoring + cash flow table + scenario analysis.
-
-## Anti-patterns
-
-| Error | Why it's bad | How to do it correctly |
-|--------|-------------|---------------|
-| Using absolute share instead of relative | Does not show position vs leader | Relative = share / largest competitor's share |
-| Incorrect quadrant boundaries | All BUs end up in a single quadrant | Calibrate thresholds to the industry (mature = 5%, growing = 10-15%) |
-| Ignoring BU size | A tiny "Star" and a huge "Dog" aren't equal | Bubble size = revenue, cash flow by quadrants |
-| Static analysis without trends | Unclear where BU connects — snapshot-based decisions | Migration arrows + scenario analysis for 2-3 years |
-| Automatic Dog liquidation | Some Dogs create synergy or retain clients | Keep/exit scoring: synergy, cash flow, exit barrier, anchor |
-| Lack of portfolio balance | Decisions per BU made in isolation — no system | Portfolio cash flow: Cows must finance Stars + QM |
-| Intuitive invest/divest for Question Marks | Toughest quadrant — intuition scales poorly | Scoring model with 6 criteria and a ≥ 6.0 threshold |
-| Data without sources and dates | Impossible to verify, quickly becomes outdated | Every fact — with source and date; >12 months = ⚠️ |
-
-## Output Template
-
-```
-## BCG Matrix: [Company / portfolio name]
-**Period:** [year]  |  **Growth threshold:** [X%]  |  **Share threshold:** [X.X]  |  **Date:** [date]
-**Review:** [next review date]
-
-### Initial Data
-
-| # | Business Unit | Market | Share | Leader's share | Rel. share | CAGR (fact) | CAGR (forecast) | Revenue | Margin |
-|---|---------------|-------|:----:|:-----------:|:---------:|:-----------:|:--------------:|:-------:|:-----:|
-| 1 | [BU1] | [Market] | XX% | XX% | X.X | XX% | XX% | $XXM | XX% |
-
-### 2×2 Matrix
-
-|  | High rel. share (> [threshold]) | Low rel. share (< [threshold]) |
-|--|:-----------------------------:|:----------------------------:|
-| **High growth (> [threshold]%)** | ★ **Stars** | ? **Question Marks** |
-|  | [BU1] (share: X.X, growth: X%) | [BU3] (share: X.X, growth: X%) |
-| **Low growth (< [threshold]%)** | $ **Cash Cows** | ✕ **Dogs** |
-|  | [BU5] (share: X.X, growth: X%) | [BU7] (share: X.X, growth: X%) |
-
-### Business Unit Breakdown
-
-| # | Business Unit | Quadrant | Rel. share | Market growth | Revenue | Trend | Strategy |
-|---|---------------|----------|:---------:|:----------:|:-------:|:-----:|-----------|
-| 1 | [BU1] | Star | 1.8 | 15% ↗ | $XXM | → $ | Invest |
-
-### Question Marks Scoring
-
-| Criterion (weight) | [QM1] | [QM2] |
-|----------------|:-----:|:-----:|
-| Market size (0.20) | X | X |
-| Competitive position (0.20) | X | X |
-| Synergy with portfolio (0.15) | X | X |
-| Cost of leadership (0.20, inv.) | X | X |
-| Strategic importance (0.15) | X | X |
-| Margin (0.10) | X | X |
-| **Score** | **X.X** | **X.X** |
-| **Decision** | Invest / Divest | Invest / Divest |
-
-### Portfolio Cash Flow
-
-| Quadrant | Revenue | Margin | Cash generation | Investments | **Net Cash Flow** |
-|----------|:-------:|:-----:|:---------------:|:----------:|:-----------------:|
-| Stars | $XXM | XX% | $XXM | -$XXM | -/+$XXM |
-| Cash Cows | $XXM | XX% | $XXM | -$XM | +$XXM |
-| Question Marks | $XXM | XX% | $XM | -$XXM | -$XXM |
-| Dogs | $XXM | XX% | $XM | -$XM | ±$XM |
-| **Total** | **$XXM** | | | | **±$XXM** |
-
-Balance: Cows ([+$XXM]) vs Stars + QM ([-$XXM]) → [Balanced ✅ / Deficit ⚠️]
-
-### Migration Trajectories (2-3 years)
-
-| BU | Now | Forecast | Driver | Action |
-|----|:------:|:-------:|---------|----------|
-| [BU1] | ★ | → $ | Market slows down | Prepare harvest mode |
-
-### Scenario Analysis (top-3 critical BUs)
-
-| BU | Scenario | Result | Probability | Condition |
-|----|----------|-----------|:-----------:|---------|
-| [BU] | Optimistic | [Quadrant], share X.X | XX% | [What must come true] |
-| [BU] | Base | [Quadrant], share X.X | XX% | [Current trends] |
-| [BU] | Pessimistic | [Quadrant], share X.X | XX% | [What could go wrong] |
-
-### Portfolio Strategy
-[1-2 paragraphs: overall logic, resources from where to where, TOP priorities, key risks]
-
-### Recommendations and go/no-go gates
-
-| # | BU | Action | Investments | Go/No-go gate | Timeframe |
-|---|-----|----------|:----------:|---------------|------|
-| 1 | [BU] | [Invest / Harvest / Divest / Exit] | $XM | [Review condition] | [When] |
-
-### Sources and Assumptions
-
-| # | Fact / assumption | Source | Date | Reliability |
-|---|-------------------|----------|------|:-------------:|
-| 1 | [Fact] | [Source] | [Date] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
-
-Legend: ✅ Verified (2+ sources) | ⚠️ Estimated (1 source) | 🔮 Assumed (expert assessment)
-```
+---
+name: bcg-matrix
+description: Portfolio analysis — distribution of business units by market growth and relative share
+type: triggered
+domain: analytics
+owners:
+  - strategist
+gates:
+  - STRATEGIST
+tech: []
+topic: []
+triggers:
+  - "bcg-matrix"
+  - "BCG"
+  - "матрица BCG"
+  - "бостонская матрица"
+related: []
+budget_lines: 345
+schema_version: 1
+---
+# BCG Matrix — Business Unit Portfolio Analysis
+
+## When to use
+- When managing a **portfolio of products or business units** — resource allocation.
+- When making decisions about **investments, divestments, or liquidation** of business lines.
+- When **strategic planning** — balancing the portfolio by lifecycle phases.
+- When preparing for **M&A** — assessing target companies or divisions.
+
+## Input
+
+| Field | Required | Description |
+|------|:-----------:|----------|
+| List of business units | ✅ | Products, brands, divisions, or segments |
+| Market data | ✅ | Market size, growth rates for each segment |
+| Market shares | ✅ | Company's share and the largest competitor's share |
+| Revenue by units | ⬚ | For visualizing bubble sizes and calculating cash flow |
+| Margin by units | ⬚ | For calculating real cash flow (gross margin or contribution margin) |
+| Threshold values | ⬚ | Custom thresholds for growth and share (default: 10% growth, 1.0 share) |
+| Horizon | ⬚ | Analysis period (default — current year + 2-3 year forecast) |
+
+> If required fields are not provided — **ask** the user, do not generate assumptions.
+
+## Data Sources
+1. Internal reporting — revenue, margin, CAPEX by business units.
+2. Market research — market shares, market sizes.
+3. Industry reports — segment growth rates, forecasts.
+4. Competitive intelligence — shares of the main competitors.
+5. Financial models — cash flows, ROI by direction.
+
+### Connection with other skills
+| Skill | What we take | When to call |
+|------|-----------|----------------|
+| `tam-sam-som` | Volume and market potential for each BU (steps 0, 2) | If there is no data on market size or growth |
+| `competitive-analysis` | Competitor shares, positioning (step 1) | If the share of the largest competitor is unknown |
+| `ansoff-matrix` | Growth strategies for Stars and Question Marks (step 5) | After classification — to develop growth strategies |
+| `swot-analysis` | Strengths/weaknesses of BUs for invest/divest decisions (step 5) | When decisions regarding Question Marks are unobvious |
+| `web-research` | Verification of market data, trends | If data is missing or outdated (>12 months) |
+
+## Protocol
+
+### Step 0 — Context Preparation
+1. Define the portfolio: list all analyzed business units (BUs).
+2. Define the relevant market for each BU.
+3. Establish threshold values:
+   - Market growth: boundary high/low (usually 10% or portfolio average).
+   - Relative market share: boundary high/low (usually 1.0 — parity with the leader).
+   - For mature industries (FMCG, manufacturing), it is permissible to lower the growth threshold to 5%.
+4. Collect data: market shares, growth rates, revenue, margin.
+
+> Every market fact  — specifying the source and date. Data older than 12 months — mark with ⚠️ and verify via `web-research`.
+
+### Step 1 — Calculation of Relative Market Share
+1. For each BU, calculate:
+
+   | BU | Company share | Largest competitor's share | **Rel. share** | Interpretation |
+   |----|:-------------:|:--------------------------:|:-------------:|---------------|
+   | [BU1] | XX% | XX% | X.X | Leader / Not a leader |
+
+2. Value > 1.0: company is a market leader.
+3. Value < 1.0: company is not a leader.
+4. In the absence of exact data — use an expert assessment marked with 🔮.
+
+### Step 2 — Determination of Market Growth Rates
+1. For each BU, determine the market CAGR for the last 3 years **and** forecast for 3 years.
+2. Classify: above threshold = high growth, below = low growth.
+3. Record the trend: accelerating ↗, stable →, decelerating ↘.
+
+   | BU | CAGR (fact 3Y) | Forecast (3Y) | Trend | Classification |
+   |----|:--------------:|:------------:|:-----:|:-------------:|
+   | [BU1] | XX% | XX% | ↗/→/↘ | High / Low |
+
+### Step 3 — Quadrant Classification
+1. **Stars** — high growth + high share:
+   - Leaders in growing markets, require significant investments.
+   - When growth slows down, they transform into Cash Cows.
+2. **Cash Cows** — low growth + high share:
+   - Cash generators, require minimal investments.
+   - Finance Stars and Question Marks.
+3. **Question Marks** — high growth + low share:
+   - Have potential, but require major investments to grow share.
+   - Key decision: invest aggressively or exit.
+4. **Dogs** — low growth + low share:
+   - Minimal strategic value.
+   - Candidates for optimization, sale, or liquidation.
+   - **Exception**: Dogs with high synergy (shared infrastructure, complementarity, anchor customer) — assess separately.
+
+### Step 4 — Building the Matrix
+1. Place each BU on a 2×2 matrix.
+2. Bubble size — proportional to revenue.
+3. Add trend arrows: where the BU is heading over a 2-3 year horizon.
+4. Mark BUs on the boundary of quadrants (±10% of the threshold) — label as "borderline".
+
+### Step 5 — Strategy and Decision Scoring
+1. For each BU, determine the strategic action:
+
+   | Quadrant | Basic strategy | Nuances |
+   |----------|-------------------|--------|
+   | **Stars** | Invest to maintain leadership | If trend is ↘ — prepare transition to Cash Cow mode |
+   | **Cash Cows** | Harvest, minimal investments | If trend is ↗ (market reviving) — consider re-investments |
+   | **Question Marks** | Selective investments **or** divestment | Decision via scoring (see below) |
+   | **Dogs** | Optimize, sell or liquidate | Check synergy before decision |
+
+2. **Scoring for Question Marks** (invest vs divest):
+
+   | Criterion | Weight | Scale | Invest if |
+   |----------|:---:|:-----:|-------------|
+   | Market size (TAM) | 0.20 | 1-10 | ≥ 7 — large market |
+   | Competitive position | 0.20 | 1-10 | ≥ 5 — chance for leadership exists |
+   | Synergy with portfolio | 0.15 | 1-10 | ≥ 6 — shared channels, technologies |
+   | Cost of achieving leadership | 0.20 | 1-10 (invert.) | ≥ 5 — manageable investments |
+   | Strategic importance | 0.15 | 1-10 | ≥ 7 — critical for the future |
+   | Target margin | 0.10 | 1-10 | ≥ 6 — pays off |
+
+   `Score = Σ(weight × score)`. Threshold: **≥ 6.0 → Invest**, **< 6.0 → Divest**.
+
+3. **Scoring for Dogs** (keep vs exit):
+
+   | Criterion | Keep if |
+   |----------|----------|
+   | Synergy with Cows/Stars | High — shared infrastructure, channels |
+   | Cash flow | Positive — does not consume resources |
+   | Exit barrier | High — contractual obligations, reputation |
+   | Strategic anchor | Yes — needed to retain a key customer |
+
+   If no criterion is met — recommend exit.
+
+### Step 6 — Portfolio Cash Flow Quantification
+1. Calculate cash flow for each quadrant:
+
+   | Quadrant | Revenue | Margin | Cash generation | Investments (CAPEX + OPEX) | **Net Cash Flow** |
+   |----------|:-------:|:-----:|:---------------:|:-------------------------:|:-----------------:|
+   | Stars | $XXM | XX% | $XXM | -$XXM | -/+$XXM |
+   | Cash Cows | $XXM | XX% | $XXM | -$XM | +$XXM |
+   | Question Marks | $XXM | XX% | $XM | -$XXM | -$XXM |
+   | Dogs | $XXM | XX% | $XM | -$XM | ±$XM |
+   | **Total** | | | | | **±$XXM** |
+
+2. Check balance: **Net Cash Flow of Cash Cows ≥ Net Cash Drain of Stars + Question Marks**.
+3. If imbalanced — reconsider investments or accelerate divestments.
+
+### Step 7 — Trajectory Analysis and Scenarios
+1. For each BU, forecast migration between quadrants over a 2-3 year horizon:
+
+   | BU | Now | In 2-3 years | Migration driver |
+   |----|:------:|:--------------:|------------------|
+   | [BU1] | ★ Star | $ Cow | Market slows down (CAGR XX% → X%) |
+   | [BU2] | ? Question | ★ Star / ✕ Dog | Depends on investments |
+
+2. Determine **critical forks**: BUs whose fate depends on decisions made now.
+3. For the top-3 critical BUs — 3 scenarios:
+
+   | BU | Scenario | Result in 3 years | Probability | Condition |
+   |----|----------|:----------------------:|:-----------:|---------|
+   | [BU2] | Invest aggressively | ★ Star, share 1.3 | 40% | +$XM investments, market grows ≥ XX% |
+   | [BU2] | Maintain current | ? Question → ✕ Dog | 45% | Share stagnates, competitors grow |
+   | [BU2] | Divest now | Exit with $XM | 15% | If buyer is found |
+
+### Step 8 — Synthesis and Recommendations
+1. Formulate portfolio strategy: overall direction and logic.
+2. Determine TOP priorities for investments and divestments.
+3. Record risks of the current portfolio configuration.
+4. Determine the frequency of review (annually or upon significant market changes).
+5. Establish go/no-go gates for each invest/divest decision.
+
+## Example — IT Holding with 5 products
+
+**Context:** IT holding, 5 products. Growth threshold: 10%, share threshold: 1.0. Total revenue $85M.
+
+| BU | Market | Share | Leader's share | Rel. share | CAGR | Revenue | Quadrant |
+|----|-------|:----:|:-----------:|:---------:|:----:|:-------:|:--------:|
+| CRM platform | CRM for SMB | 28% | 22% | **1.27** | 8% | $30M | $ Cow |
+| Cloud analytics | BI/Analytics | 15% | 35% | **0.43** | 22% | $18M | ? Question |
+| Cybersecurity | SMB Security | 32% | 25% | **1.28** | 18% | $20M | ★ Star |
+| Corp. messenger | Team Comms | 5% | 40% | **0.13** | 4% | $7M | ✕ Dog |
+| AI assistant | AI Productivity | 12% | 18% | **0.67** | 35% | $10M | ? Question |
+
+**Scoring Question Marks:**
+
+| Criterion | Cloud analytics | AI assistant |
+|----------|:------------------:|:------------:|
+| Market size | 7 | 9 |
+| Competitive position | 4 | 6 |
+| Synergy | 8 (+ CRM, + Security) | 7 (+ CRM) |
+| Cost of leadership (inv.) | 3 (expensive, leader is far) | 6 (fragmented market) |
+| Strategic importance | 6 | 9 |
+| Target margin | 7 | 5 |
+| **Score** | **5.5 → Divest** | **7.0 → Invest** |
+
+**Scoring Dog — Corp. messenger:**
+- Synergy: low (separate infrastructure) — no
+- Cash flow: weakly positive (+$0.3M) — weak "yes"
+- Exit barrier: low — no
+- Strategic anchor: no → **Recommendation: exit (sale)**
+
+**Cash flow balance:**
+- Cows generate: +$12M → Star consumes -$6M, AI assistant -$4M → Balance: +$2M ✅
+
+**Decisions:**
+1. CRM platform (Cow): harvest, allocate $12M to Star and AI
+2. Cybersecurity (Star): invest $6M, maintain leadership
+3. AI assistant (Question → Invest): $4M, goal — share 1.0 in 2 years
+4. Cloud analytics (Question → Divest): sell or partner
+5. Corp. messenger (Dog → Exit): sell, expected price $5-8M
+
+## Validation (Quality Gate)
+
+- [ ] All business units are classified into quadrants with numerical data
+- [ ] Relative market share calculated correctly (share / largest competitor's share)
+- [ ] Market growth rates backed by data (CAGR fact + forecast)
+- [ ] Threshold values are set and justified for the industry
+- [ ] Question Marks evaluated via scoring model (invest vs divest)
+- [ ] Dogs checked for synergy prior to exit decision
+- [ ] Portfolio cash flow is quantified: Cows cover Stars + Question Marks
+- [ ] Migration trajectories defined for each BU over a 2-3 year horizon
+- [ ] Scenario analysis conducted for top-3 critical BUs
+- [ ] Trends and dynamics accounted for (arrows ↗/→/↘)
+- [ ] Data sources indicated; data older than 12 months marked with ⚠️
+- [ ] Go/no-go gates defined for each invest/divest decision
+
+## Handoff
+Result is handed over to:
+- **Strategist / Mediator** — to formulate the portfolio strategy and budgeting.
+- **`ansoff-matrix`** — to develop growth strategies for Stars and invested Question Marks.
+- **`unit-economics`** — to calculate detailed unit economics per BU.
+- **`competitive-analysis`** — for in-depth competitor analysis in low-share quadrants.
+
+Handoff format: filled output template + Question Marks scoring + cash flow table + scenario analysis.
+
+## Anti-patterns
+
+| Error | Why it's bad | How to do it correctly |
+|--------|-------------|---------------|
+| Using absolute share instead of relative | Does not show position vs leader | Relative = share / largest competitor's share |
+| Incorrect quadrant boundaries | All BUs end up in a single quadrant | Calibrate thresholds to the industry (mature = 5%, growing = 10-15%) |
+| Ignoring BU size | A tiny "Star" and a huge "Dog" aren't equal | Bubble size = revenue, cash flow by quadrants |
+| Static analysis without trends | Unclear where BU connects — snapshot-based decisions | Migration arrows + scenario analysis for 2-3 years |
+| Automatic Dog liquidation | Some Dogs create synergy or retain clients | Keep/exit scoring: synergy, cash flow, exit barrier, anchor |
+| Lack of portfolio balance | Decisions per BU made in isolation — no system | Portfolio cash flow: Cows must finance Stars + QM |
+| Intuitive invest/divest for Question Marks | Toughest quadrant — intuition scales poorly | Scoring model with 6 criteria and a ≥ 6.0 threshold |
+| Data without sources and dates | Impossible to verify, quickly becomes outdated | Every fact — with source and date; >12 months = ⚠️ |
+
+## Output Template
+
+```
+## BCG Matrix: [Company / portfolio name]
+**Period:** [year]  |  **Growth threshold:** [X%]  |  **Share threshold:** [X.X]  |  **Date:** [date]
+**Review:** [next review date]
+
+### Initial Data
+
+| # | Business Unit | Market | Share | Leader's share | Rel. share | CAGR (fact) | CAGR (forecast) | Revenue | Margin |
+|---|---------------|-------|:----:|:-----------:|:---------:|:-----------:|:--------------:|:-------:|:-----:|
+| 1 | [BU1] | [Market] | XX% | XX% | X.X | XX% | XX% | $XXM | XX% |
+
+### 2×2 Matrix
+
+|  | High rel. share (> [threshold]) | Low rel. share (< [threshold]) |
+|--|:-----------------------------:|:----------------------------:|
+| **High growth (> [threshold]%)** | ★ **Stars** | ? **Question Marks** |
+|  | [BU1] (share: X.X, growth: X%) | [BU3] (share: X.X, growth: X%) |
+| **Low growth (< [threshold]%)** | $ **Cash Cows** | ✕ **Dogs** |
+|  | [BU5] (share: X.X, growth: X%) | [BU7] (share: X.X, growth: X%) |
+
+### Business Unit Breakdown
+
+| # | Business Unit | Quadrant | Rel. share | Market growth | Revenue | Trend | Strategy |
+|---|---------------|----------|:---------:|:----------:|:-------:|:-----:|-----------|
+| 1 | [BU1] | Star | 1.8 | 15% ↗ | $XXM | → $ | Invest |
+
+### Question Marks Scoring
+
+| Criterion (weight) | [QM1] | [QM2] |
+|----------------|:-----:|:-----:|
+| Market size (0.20) | X | X |
+| Competitive position (0.20) | X | X |
+| Synergy with portfolio (0.15) | X | X |
+| Cost of leadership (0.20, inv.) | X | X |
+| Strategic importance (0.15) | X | X |
+| Margin (0.10) | X | X |
+| **Score** | **X.X** | **X.X** |
+| **Decision** | Invest / Divest | Invest / Divest |
+
+### Portfolio Cash Flow
+
+| Quadrant | Revenue | Margin | Cash generation | Investments | **Net Cash Flow** |
+|----------|:-------:|:-----:|:---------------:|:----------:|:-----------------:|
+| Stars | $XXM | XX% | $XXM | -$XXM | -/+$XXM |
+| Cash Cows | $XXM | XX% | $XXM | -$XM | +$XXM |
+| Question Marks | $XXM | XX% | $XM | -$XXM | -$XXM |
+| Dogs | $XXM | XX% | $XM | -$XM | ±$XM |
+| **Total** | **$XXM** | | | | **±$XXM** |
+
+Balance: Cows ([+$XXM]) vs Stars + QM ([-$XXM]) → [Balanced ✅ / Deficit ⚠️]
+
+### Migration Trajectories (2-3 years)
+
+| BU | Now | Forecast | Driver | Action |
+|----|:------:|:-------:|---------|----------|
+| [BU1] | ★ | → $ | Market slows down | Prepare harvest mode |
+
+### Scenario Analysis (top-3 critical BUs)
+
+| BU | Scenario | Result | Probability | Condition |
+|----|----------|-----------|:-----------:|---------|
+| [BU] | Optimistic | [Quadrant], share X.X | XX% | [What must come true] |
+| [BU] | Base | [Quadrant], share X.X | XX% | [Current trends] |
+| [BU] | Pessimistic | [Quadrant], share X.X | XX% | [What could go wrong] |
+
+### Portfolio Strategy
+[1-2 paragraphs: overall logic, resources from where to where, TOP priorities, key risks]
+
+### Recommendations and go/no-go gates
+
+| # | BU | Action | Investments | Go/No-go gate | Timeframe |
+|---|-----|----------|:----------:|---------------|------|
+| 1 | [BU] | [Invest / Harvest / Divest / Exit] | $XM | [Review condition] | [When] |
+
+### Sources and Assumptions
+
+| # | Fact / assumption | Source | Date | Reliability |
+|---|-------------------|----------|------|:-------------:|
+| 1 | [Fact] | [Source] | [Date] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
+
+Legend: ✅ Verified (2+ sources) | ⚠️ Estimated (1 source) | 🔮 Assumed (expert assessment)
+```