code-ai-installer 4.0.0 → 4.0.1-a

package/domains/analytics/locales/en/.agents/skills/pest-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -1,305 +1,324 @@
----
-name: pest-analysis
-description: Macro-environment analysis — political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors
----
-# PEST/PESTEL Analysis — Macro-environment Analysis
-
-## When to Use
-- When assessing the **macro-environment** before entering a new market or launching a new product.
-- During **strategic planning** — to understand external factors affecting the business.
-- When analyzing **regulatory and political risks** in specific regions or industries.
-- When preparing **investment decisions** — assessing country and industry risks.
-
-## Input
-
-| Field | Required | Description |
-|-------|:--------:|-------------|
-| Subject of analysis | ✅ | Company, industry, market, or region |
-| Geographic focus | ✅ | Country / region / global reach |
-| Analysis horizon | ⬚ | Forecast period (default is 3-5 years) |
-| Mode | ⬚ | PEST (4 factors) or PESTEL (6 factors, default) |
-| Industry | ⬚ | Specific industry to narrow down factors |
-| Strategic goals | ⬚ | Context for evaluating factor impact |
-
-> If mandatory fields are not provided — **request them from the user** before starting the analysis. Do not make assumptions.
-
-## Data Sources
-1. National statistical agencies — macroeconomic indicators, demographics.
-2. Central banks and regulators — interest rates, regulatory initiatives.
-3. Industry associations — industry reports, forecasts.
-4. International organizations — World Bank, IMF, WTO, OECD.
-5. Tech insights — Gartner, Forrester, McKinsey, BCG.
-6. Environmental and legal databases — ESG ratings, legislative registries.
-
-> Each fact must be cited with a source and date. Data older than 12 months must be marked with ⚠️ and verified via `web-research`.
-
-### Integration with Other Skills
-| Skill | What We Take | When to Trigger |
-|-------|--------------|-----------------|
-| `swot-analysis` | External Opportunities / Threats are formed from PESTEL factors (step 8) | PESTEL → O/T block in SWOT |
-| `tam-sam-som` | Macro constraints on market size: regulatory, economic (steps 1-2, 6) | If PESTEL reveals constraints on SAM/SOM |
-| `competitive-analysis` | Regulatory barriers to entry for competitors (step 6) | If legal factors affect the competitive landscape |
-| `ansoff-matrix` | Macro risks for growth strategies: new markets, diversification (step 8) | To assess expansion risks |
-| `web-research` | Macro data verification, recent reports | If data is missing or outdated (>12 months) |
-| `trend-analysis` | Trends to substantiate factor dynamics (↑/↓/→) | If deep trend elaboration is needed |
-
-## Protocol
-
-### Step 0 — Context Preparation
-1. Define the subject of analysis and geographic focus.
-2. Clarify the mode: PEST (4 factors) or PESTEL (6 factors).
-3. Set the analysis horizon and strategic context.
-4. Identify key questions the analysis should answer.
-5. Gather available data from sources.
-
-### Step 1 — Political Factors
-1. Assess political stability and form of government.
-2. Analyze current and planned government policies affecting the industry.
-3. Assess trade policy: tariffs, sanctions, trade agreements.
-4. Analyze tax policy and government incentives.
-5. Assess corruption risks and institutional quality.
-6. For each factor, fill out a card:
-
-   | Field | Value |
-   |-------|-------|
-   | Factor | [Description] |
-   | Impact (1-5) | [How strongly it affects the business] |
-   | Probability (1-5) | [Likelihood of realization / intensification] |
-   | Trend | ↑ strengthening / ↓ weakening / → stable |
-   | Nature | 🟢 Opportunity / 🔴 Risk / 🟡 Dual |
-   | Horizon | Short-term (<1y) / Medium-term (1-3y) / Long-term (3-5y) |
-   | Source | [URL / Title, Date] |
-
-   **Nature is determined by the following rule:**
-   - 🟢 **Opportunity** — the factor creates a competitive advantage, lowers barriers, opens the market.
-   - 🔴 **Risk** — the factor restricts, increases costs, creates a threat.
-   - 🟡 **Dual** — depends on strategy: can be both a risk and an opportunity.
-
-### Step 2 — Economic Factors
-1. Analyze macroeconomic indicators: GDP, inflation, unemployment.
-2. Assess currency risks and exchange rate dynamics.
-3. Analyze interest rates and capital availability.
-4. Assess purchasing power and consumption structure.
-5. Analyze economic cycles and the phase of the business cycle.
-6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
-
-### Step 3 — Social Factors
-1. Analyze demographic trends: age structure, urbanization, migration.
-2. Assess cultural norms and values affecting consumption.
-3. Analyze education levels and workforce qualifications.
-4. Assess changes in lifestyle and consumer preferences.
-5. Analyze social inequality and its impact on markets.
-6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
-
-### Step 4 — Technological Factors
-1. Assess the level of technological development in the region / industry.
-2. Analyze the pace of technological change and disruption.
-3. Assess R&D investments — public and private.
-4. Analyze the level of digitalization and internet penetration.
-5. Assess the impact of automation and AI on the industry.
-6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
-
-### Step 5 — Environmental Factors (PESTEL)
-1. Analyze environmental legislation and regulatory requirements.
-2. Assess climate risks and their impact on the business.
-3. Analyze ESG trends and stakeholder pressure.
-4. Assess the availability and cost of resources (energy, raw materials, water).
-5. Analyze carbon footprints and sustainability requirements.
-6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
-
-### Step 6 — Legal Factors (PESTEL)
-1. Analyze the regulatory context: licensing, certification, compliance.
-2. Assess intellectual property protection and patent law.
-3. Analyze labor legislation and its impact on HR strategy.
-4. Assess data protection and privacy (GDPR, local equivalents).
-5. Analyze antitrust regulation and its impact on the market.
-6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
-
-### Step 7 — Scoring and Prioritization
-1. Calculate the final score for each factor: `Score = Impact × Probability`.
-2. Determine top factors by category (Score ≥ 12).
-3. Build a heatmap:
-
-   | | Probability 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
-   |--|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
-   | **Impact 5** | 5 | 10 | 15 🟡 | 20 🔴 | 25 🔴 |
-   | **4** | 4 | 8 | 12 🟡 | 16 🔴 | 20 🔴 |
-   | **3** | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 🟡 | 15 🟡 |
-   | **2** | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
-   | **1** | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
-
-   🔴 Score ≥ 16: critical — immediate response required.
-   🟡 Score 12-15: significant — monitoring and action plan needed.
-   No marker < 12: background — monitor the trend.
-
-4. Highlight critical factors requiring an immediate response.
-
-### Step 8 — Scenario Analysis
-1. Define 2-3 key uncertainties (factors with high Scores and ambiguous trends).
-2. Build 3 scenarios:
-
-   | Scenario | Key Assumptions | Business Impact | Probability | Strategic Response |
-   |----------|-----------------|-----------------|:-----------:|--------------------|
-   | Optimistic | [Which factors improve] | [What it yields] | XX% | [What to do] |
-   | Base | [Current trends continue] | [What to expect] | XX% | [What to do] |
-   | Pessimistic | [Which factors worsen] | [What the threat is] | XX% | [What to do] |
-
-3. For the pessimistic scenario — define trigger points: under what conditions to activate the contingency plan.
-
-### Step 9 — Synthesis and Recommendations
-1. Formulate the overall macro-environment profile (favorable / neutral / hostile).
-2. Identify key change drivers over the analysis horizon.
-3. Formulate strategic recommendations:
-
-   | # | Factor | Type | Recommendation | Priority | Timeframe |
-   |---|--------|:----:|----------------|:--------:|-----------|
-   | 1 | [Factor] | 🔴 Risk | [What to do for mitigation] | P1 | [When] |
-   | 2 | [Factor] | 🟢 Opp. | [How to leverage] | P2 | [When] |
-
-4. Determine review frequency (quarterly for volatile markets, annually for stable ones).
-
-## Example — EdTech platform, Russian market, 3-year horizon
-
-**Context:** Online corporate learning platform, B2B SaaS, Russia, horizon 2026-2029.
-
-### Factor Summary Table (TOP)
-
-| # | Cat. | Factor | Impact | Prob. | Score | Trend | Nature | Horizon |
-|---|------|--------|:------:|:-----:|:-----:|:-----:|:------:|---------|
-| P1 | Political | Gov program "Personnel" — subsidies for corp training | 4 | 4 | **16** | ↑ | 🟢 | Mid-term |
-| P2 | Political | Restrictions on foreign LMS (import substitution) | 4 | 3 | **12** | ↑ | 🟡 | Short-term |
-| E1 | Economic | Inflation 8-10% — pressure on HR budgets | 4 | 5 | **20** | → | 🔴 | Short-term |
-| E2 | Economic | Talent shortage → growing upskilling investments | 5 | 4 | **20** | ↑ | 🟢 | Mid-term |
-| S1 | Social | Gen Z entering workforce — digital-first learning expected | 4 | 5 | **20** | ↑ | 🟢 | Long-term |
-| T1 | Technological | AI personalization in learning — new standard | 5 | 4 | **20** | ↑ | 🟢 | Mid-term |
-| T2 | Technological | LLM content generation — reducing course costs | 4 | 4 | **16** | ↑ | 🟡 | Short-term |
-| L1 | Legal | Personal Data Law — local data storage required | 5 | 5 | **25** | → | 🔴 | Short-term |
-
-### Macro-Environment Profile
-
-| Category | Avg. Score | Trend | Evaluation |
-|----------|:----------:|:-----:|------------|
-| Political | 14.0 | ↑ | 🟡 Dual — subsidies + restrictions |
-| Economic | 20.0 | ↑ | 🟢 Favorable — talent shortage = high demand |
-| Social | 20.0 | ↑ | 🟢 Favorable — digital-first trend |
-| Technological | 18.0 | ↑ | 🟢 Favorable — AI drives differentiation |
-| Legal | 25.0 | → | 🔴 Hostile — high compliance requirements |
-
-**Overall profile:** Favorable macro-environment for EdTech with significant legal constraints.
-
-### Scenario Analysis
-
-| Scenario | Assumptions | Impact | Prob. | Response |
-|----------|-------------|--------|:-----:|----------|
-| Optimistic | Subsidies +50%, AI lowers cost-per-learner | TAM ×1.5, margin +10pp | 25% | Aggressive growth, AI investments |
-| Base | Trends continue, inflation 8% | TAM +15% YoY, margin stable | 50% | Focus on PMF and retention |
-| Pessimistic | HR budgets cut, regulatory barriers rise | TAM flat, churn +5pp | 25% | Focus on compliance, lower CAC |
-
-**Trigger point (Pessimistic):** if HR budgets in >30% of client companies are cut by >20% — activate contingency.
-
-### Strategic Recommendations
-
-| # | Factor | Type | Recommendation | Priority |
-|---|--------|:----:|----------------|:--------:|
-| 1 | L1: Personal Data Law | 🔴 | Migrate to local servers by Q3 | P1 |
-| 2 | T1: AI personalization | 🟢 | Invest in AI module as a differentiator | P1 |
-| 3 | E2: Talent shortage | 🟢 | Position as "ROI on learning" | P2 |
-| 4 | P2: Import substitution | 🟡 | Prepare for inclusion in local software registry | P2 |
-
-## Validation (Quality Gate)
-
-- [ ] All categories (P/E/S/T or P/E/S/T/E/L) are covered with at least 3 factors each
-- [ ] For each factor: impact (1-5), probability (1-5), trend (↑/↓/→), nature (🟢/🔴/🟡), horizon
-- [ ] Nature justified: opportunity / risk / dual — per the protocol rule
-- [ ] Scoring correct: Score = Impact × Probability, top factors (≥12) highlighted
-- [ ] Trends justified with causes and sources
-- [ ] No overlaps between categories
-- [ ] Scenario analysis: 3 scenarios with assumptions, impact, probability, and response
-- [ ] Trigger points defined for the pessimistic scenario
-- [ ] Recommendations are specific, prioritized (P1/P2/P3), and tied to factors
-- [ ] Analysis reflects the specified horizon and geographic focus
-- [ ] Data sources cited; data older than 12 months marked with ⚠️
-
-## Handoff
-The output of `$pest-analysis` serves as input for:
-- **Strategist / Mediator** — macro-environment for strategic decisions and risk assessment.
-- **`swot-analysis`** — external Opportunities and Threats derived from PESTEL factors.
-- **`tam-sam-som`** — macro constraints on market size (regulatory, economic).
-- **`ansoff-matrix`** — macro risks for growth strategies in new markets.
-- **`competitive-analysis`** — regulatory barriers to entry for competitors.
-
-Handoff format: factor summary table + macro-environment profile + scenario analysis + recommendations. Use `$handoff` to transfer context.
-
-## Anti-patterns
-
-| Error | Why it's bad | Correct Approach |
-|-------|--------------|------------------|
-| Listing factors without scoring | An unprioritized list is useless | Each factor gets Score = Impact × Probability |
-| Ignoring trends | A static snapshot ignores dynamics | Provide Trend ↑/↓/→ + horizon + cause |
-| Confusing categories | Putting a legal factor under "Political" muddles the analysis| Strictly separate by PESTEL categories |
-| Focusing solely on negative factors | Opportunities get lost | Nature: 🟢 opportunity / 🔴 risk / 🟡 dual |
-| Lack of geographic focus | Factors vary by country | Always specify region / country |
-| Identical scores for all factors | No differentiation, no priorities | Use the full 1-5 scale, justify each score |
-| Scenarios without trigger points | Unclear when to activate contingency | Trigger: specific condition → specific action |
-| Factors without sources | Cannot be verified, subjective opinions | Each fact must have source and date; >12mo = ⚠️ |
-
-## Output Template
-
-```markdown
-## PEST/PESTEL Analysis: [Subject of Analysis]
-**Region:** [Geography]  |  **Horizon:** [Period]  |  **Mode:** PEST / PESTEL  |  **Date:** [Date]
-
-### Factor Summary Table
-
-| # | Cat. | Factor | Impact (1-5) | Prob. (1-5) | Score | Trend | Nature | Horizon | Source |
-|---|------|--------|:------------:|:-----------:|:-----:|:-----:|:------:|---------|--------|
-| 1 | P | [Factor] | X | X | XX | ↑/↓/→ | 🟢/🔴/🟡 | Short/Mid/Long | [Source] |
-
-### Heatmap (TOP Factors)
-
-| Factor | Score | Trend | Cat. | Nature | Recommendation |
-|--------|:-----:|:-----:|------|:------:|----------------|
-| [Factor] | XX 🔴 | ↑ | [X] | Risk | [Action] |
-
-Thresholds: 🔴 ≥ 16 critical | 🟡 12-15 significant | < 12 background
-
-### Macro-Environment Profile
-
-| Category | Avg. Score | Trend | Evaluation |
-|----------|:----------:|:-----:|------------|
-| Political | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | 🟢 Favorable / 🟡 Neutral / 🔴 Hostile |
-| Economic | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
-| Social | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
-| Technological | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
-| Environmental | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
-| Legal | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
-
-**Overall profile:** [1-2 sentences]
-
-### Scenario Analysis
-
-| Scenario | Key Assumptions | Business Impact | Probability | Strategic Response |
-|----------|-----------------|-----------------|:-----------:|--------------------|
-| Optimistic | [Which factors improve] | [What it yields] | XX% | [What to do] |
-| Base | [Current trends continue] | [What to expect] | XX% | [What to do] |
-| Pessimistic | [Which factors worsen] | [What the threat is] | XX% | [What to do] |
-
-**Trigger points (pessimistic):** [Under what condition → what action]
-
-### Strategic Recommendations
-
-| # | Factor | Type | Recommendation | Priority | Timeframe |
-|---|--------|:----:|----------------|:--------:|-----------|
-| 1 | [Factor] | 🔴 | [Mitigation] | P1 | [When] |
-| 2 | [Factor] | 🟢 | [How to leverage] | P2 | [When] |
-
-**Review Frequency:** [quarterly / annually]
-
-### Sources and Assumptions
-
-| # | Fact / Assumption | Source | Date | Reliability |
-|---|-------------------|--------|------|:-----------:|
-| 1 | [Fact] | [Source] | [Date] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
-
-Legend: ✅ Verified (2+ sources) | ⚠️ Estimated (1 source) | 🔮 Assumed (expert assessment)
-```
+---
+name: pest-analysis
+description: Macro-environment analysis — political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors
+type: triggered
+domain: analytics
+owners:
+  - strategist
+  - mediator
+gates:
+  - STRATEGIST
+  - MEDIATOR
+tech: []
+topic: []
+triggers:
+  - pest-analysis
+  - PEST
+  - PESTEL
+  - ПЕСТ
+  - макроанализ
+related: []
+budget_lines: 324
+schema_version: 1
+---
+# PEST/PESTEL Analysis — Macro-environment Analysis
+
+## When to Use
+- When assessing the **macro-environment** before entering a new market or launching a new product.
+- During **strategic planning** — to understand external factors affecting the business.
+- When analyzing **regulatory and political risks** in specific regions or industries.
+- When preparing **investment decisions** — assessing country and industry risks.
+
+## Input
+
+| Field | Required | Description |
+|-------|:--------:|-------------|
+| Subject of analysis | ✅ | Company, industry, market, or region |
+| Geographic focus | ✅ | Country / region / global reach |
+| Analysis horizon | ⬚ | Forecast period (default is 3-5 years) |
+| Mode | ⬚ | PEST (4 factors) or PESTEL (6 factors, default) |
+| Industry | ⬚ | Specific industry to narrow down factors |
+| Strategic goals | ⬚ | Context for evaluating factor impact |
+
+> If mandatory fields are not provided — **request them from the user** before starting the analysis. Do not make assumptions.
+
+## Data Sources
+1. National statistical agencies — macroeconomic indicators, demographics.
+2. Central banks and regulators — interest rates, regulatory initiatives.
+3. Industry associations — industry reports, forecasts.
+4. International organizations — World Bank, IMF, WTO, OECD.
+5. Tech insights — Gartner, Forrester, McKinsey, BCG.
+6. Environmental and legal databases — ESG ratings, legislative registries.
+
+> Each fact must be cited with a source and date. Data older than 12 months must be marked with ⚠️ and verified via `web-research`.
+
+### Integration with Other Skills
+| Skill | What We Take | When to Trigger |
+|-------|--------------|-----------------|
+| `swot-analysis` | External Opportunities / Threats are formed from PESTEL factors (step 8) | PESTEL → O/T block in SWOT |
+| `tam-sam-som` | Macro constraints on market size: regulatory, economic (steps 1-2, 6) | If PESTEL reveals constraints on SAM/SOM |
+| `competitive-analysis` | Regulatory barriers to entry for competitors (step 6) | If legal factors affect the competitive landscape |
+| `ansoff-matrix` | Macro risks for growth strategies: new markets, diversification (step 8) | To assess expansion risks |
+| `web-research` | Macro data verification, recent reports | If data is missing or outdated (>12 months) |
+| `trend-analysis` | Trends to substantiate factor dynamics (↑/↓/→) | If deep trend elaboration is needed |
+
+## Protocol
+
+### Step 0 — Context Preparation
+1. Define the subject of analysis and geographic focus.
+2. Clarify the mode: PEST (4 factors) or PESTEL (6 factors).
+3. Set the analysis horizon and strategic context.
+4. Identify key questions the analysis should answer.
+5. Gather available data from sources.
+
+### Step 1 — Political Factors
+1. Assess political stability and form of government.
+2. Analyze current and planned government policies affecting the industry.
+3. Assess trade policy: tariffs, sanctions, trade agreements.
+4. Analyze tax policy and government incentives.
+5. Assess corruption risks and institutional quality.
+6. For each factor, fill out a card:
+
+   | Field | Value |
+   |-------|-------|
+   | Factor | [Description] |
+   | Impact (1-5) | [How strongly it affects the business] |
+   | Probability (1-5) | [Likelihood of realization / intensification] |
+   | Trend | ↑ strengthening / ↓ weakening / → stable |
+   | Nature | 🟢 Opportunity / 🔴 Risk / 🟡 Dual |
+   | Horizon | Short-term (<1y) / Medium-term (1-3y) / Long-term (3-5y) |
+   | Source | [URL / Title, Date] |
+
+   **Nature is determined by the following rule:**
+   - 🟢 **Opportunity** — the factor creates a competitive advantage, lowers barriers, opens the market.
+   - 🔴 **Risk** — the factor restricts, increases costs, creates a threat.
+   - 🟡 **Dual** — depends on strategy: can be both a risk and an opportunity.
+
+### Step 2 — Economic Factors
+1. Analyze macroeconomic indicators: GDP, inflation, unemployment.
+2. Assess currency risks and exchange rate dynamics.
+3. Analyze interest rates and capital availability.
+4. Assess purchasing power and consumption structure.
+5. Analyze economic cycles and the phase of the business cycle.
+6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
+
+### Step 3 — Social Factors
+1. Analyze demographic trends: age structure, urbanization, migration.
+2. Assess cultural norms and values affecting consumption.
+3. Analyze education levels and workforce qualifications.
+4. Assess changes in lifestyle and consumer preferences.
+5. Analyze social inequality and its impact on markets.
+6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
+
+### Step 4 — Technological Factors
+1. Assess the level of technological development in the region / industry.
+2. Analyze the pace of technological change and disruption.
+3. Assess R&D investments — public and private.
+4. Analyze the level of digitalization and internet penetration.
+5. Assess the impact of automation and AI on the industry.
+6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
+
+### Step 5 — Environmental Factors (PESTEL)
+1. Analyze environmental legislation and regulatory requirements.
+2. Assess climate risks and their impact on the business.
+3. Analyze ESG trends and stakeholder pressure.
+4. Assess the availability and cost of resources (energy, raw materials, water).
+5. Analyze carbon footprints and sustainability requirements.
+6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
+
+### Step 6 — Legal Factors (PESTEL)
+1. Analyze the regulatory context: licensing, certification, compliance.
+2. Assess intellectual property protection and patent law.
+3. Analyze labor legislation and its impact on HR strategy.
+4. Assess data protection and privacy (GDPR, local equivalents).
+5. Analyze antitrust regulation and its impact on the market.
+6. For each factor — fill out a card (same as step 1).
+
+### Step 7 — Scoring and Prioritization
+1. Calculate the final score for each factor: `Score = Impact × Probability`.
+2. Determine top factors by category (Score ≥ 12).
+3. Build a heatmap:
+
+   | | Probability 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
+   |--|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
+   | **Impact 5** | 5 | 10 | 15 🟡 | 20 🔴 | 25 🔴 |
+   | **4** | 4 | 8 | 12 🟡 | 16 🔴 | 20 🔴 |
+   | **3** | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 🟡 | 15 🟡 |
+   | **2** | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
+   | **1** | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
+
+   🔴 Score ≥ 16: critical — immediate response required.
+   🟡 Score 12-15: significant — monitoring and action plan needed.
+   No marker < 12: background — monitor the trend.
+
+4. Highlight critical factors requiring an immediate response.
+
+### Step 8 — Scenario Analysis
+1. Define 2-3 key uncertainties (factors with high Scores and ambiguous trends).
+2. Build 3 scenarios:
+
+   | Scenario | Key Assumptions | Business Impact | Probability | Strategic Response |
+   |----------|-----------------|-----------------|:-----------:|--------------------|
+   | Optimistic | [Which factors improve] | [What it yields] | XX% | [What to do] |
+   | Base | [Current trends continue] | [What to expect] | XX% | [What to do] |
+   | Pessimistic | [Which factors worsen] | [What the threat is] | XX% | [What to do] |
+
+3. For the pessimistic scenario — define trigger points: under what conditions to activate the contingency plan.
+
+### Step 9 — Synthesis and Recommendations
+1. Formulate the overall macro-environment profile (favorable / neutral / hostile).
+2. Identify key change drivers over the analysis horizon.
+3. Formulate strategic recommendations:
+
+   | # | Factor | Type | Recommendation | Priority | Timeframe |
+   |---|--------|:----:|----------------|:--------:|-----------|
+   | 1 | [Factor] | 🔴 Risk | [What to do for mitigation] | P1 | [When] |
+   | 2 | [Factor] | 🟢 Opp. | [How to leverage] | P2 | [When] |
+
+4. Determine review frequency (quarterly for volatile markets, annually for stable ones).
+
+## Example — EdTech platform, Russian market, 3-year horizon
+
+**Context:** Online corporate learning platform, B2B SaaS, Russia, horizon 2026-2029.
+
+### Factor Summary Table (TOP)
+
+| # | Cat. | Factor | Impact | Prob. | Score | Trend | Nature | Horizon |
+|---|------|--------|:------:|:-----:|:-----:|:-----:|:------:|---------|
+| P1 | Political | Gov program "Personnel" — subsidies for corp training | 4 | 4 | **16** | ↑ | 🟢 | Mid-term |
+| P2 | Political | Restrictions on foreign LMS (import substitution) | 4 | 3 | **12** | ↑ | 🟡 | Short-term |
+| E1 | Economic | Inflation 8-10% — pressure on HR budgets | 4 | 5 | **20** | → | 🔴 | Short-term |
+| E2 | Economic | Talent shortage → growing upskilling investments | 5 | 4 | **20** | ↑ | 🟢 | Mid-term |
+| S1 | Social | Gen Z entering workforce — digital-first learning expected | 4 | 5 | **20** | ↑ | 🟢 | Long-term |
+| T1 | Technological | AI personalization in learning — new standard | 5 | 4 | **20** | ↑ | 🟢 | Mid-term |
+| T2 | Technological | LLM content generation — reducing course costs | 4 | 4 | **16** | ↑ | 🟡 | Short-term |
+| L1 | Legal | Personal Data Law — local data storage required | 5 | 5 | **25** | → | 🔴 | Short-term |
+
+### Macro-Environment Profile
+
+| Category | Avg. Score | Trend | Evaluation |
+|----------|:----------:|:-----:|------------|
+| Political | 14.0 | ↑ | 🟡 Dual — subsidies + restrictions |
+| Economic | 20.0 | ↑ | 🟢 Favorable — talent shortage = high demand |
+| Social | 20.0 | ↑ | 🟢 Favorable — digital-first trend |
+| Technological | 18.0 | ↑ | 🟢 Favorable — AI drives differentiation |
+| Legal | 25.0 | → | 🔴 Hostile — high compliance requirements |
+
+**Overall profile:** Favorable macro-environment for EdTech with significant legal constraints.
+
+### Scenario Analysis
+
+| Scenario | Assumptions | Impact | Prob. | Response |
+|----------|-------------|--------|:-----:|----------|
+| Optimistic | Subsidies +50%, AI lowers cost-per-learner | TAM ×1.5, margin +10pp | 25% | Aggressive growth, AI investments |
+| Base | Trends continue, inflation 8% | TAM +15% YoY, margin stable | 50% | Focus on PMF and retention |
+| Pessimistic | HR budgets cut, regulatory barriers rise | TAM flat, churn +5pp | 25% | Focus on compliance, lower CAC |
+
+**Trigger point (Pessimistic):** if HR budgets in >30% of client companies are cut by >20% — activate contingency.
+
+### Strategic Recommendations
+
+| # | Factor | Type | Recommendation | Priority |
+|---|--------|:----:|----------------|:--------:|
+| 1 | L1: Personal Data Law | 🔴 | Migrate to local servers by Q3 | P1 |
+| 2 | T1: AI personalization | 🟢 | Invest in AI module as a differentiator | P1 |
+| 3 | E2: Talent shortage | 🟢 | Position as "ROI on learning" | P2 |
+| 4 | P2: Import substitution | 🟡 | Prepare for inclusion in local software registry | P2 |
+
+## Validation (Quality Gate)
+
+- [ ] All categories (P/E/S/T or P/E/S/T/E/L) are covered with at least 3 factors each
+- [ ] For each factor: impact (1-5), probability (1-5), trend (↑/↓/→), nature (🟢/🔴/🟡), horizon
+- [ ] Nature justified: opportunity / risk / dual — per the protocol rule
+- [ ] Scoring correct: Score = Impact × Probability, top factors (≥12) highlighted
+- [ ] Trends justified with causes and sources
+- [ ] No overlaps between categories
+- [ ] Scenario analysis: 3 scenarios with assumptions, impact, probability, and response
+- [ ] Trigger points defined for the pessimistic scenario
+- [ ] Recommendations are specific, prioritized (P1/P2/P3), and tied to factors
+- [ ] Analysis reflects the specified horizon and geographic focus
+- [ ] Data sources cited; data older than 12 months marked with ⚠️
+
+## Handoff
+The output of `$pest-analysis` serves as input for:
+- **Strategist / Mediator** — macro-environment for strategic decisions and risk assessment.
+- **`swot-analysis`** — external Opportunities and Threats derived from PESTEL factors.
+- **`tam-sam-som`** — macro constraints on market size (regulatory, economic).
+- **`ansoff-matrix`** — macro risks for growth strategies in new markets.
+- **`competitive-analysis`** — regulatory barriers to entry for competitors.
+
+Handoff format: factor summary table + macro-environment profile + scenario analysis + recommendations. Use `$handoff` to transfer context.
+
+## Anti-patterns
+
+| Error | Why it's bad | Correct Approach |
+|-------|--------------|------------------|
+| Listing factors without scoring | An unprioritized list is useless | Each factor gets Score = Impact × Probability |
+| Ignoring trends | A static snapshot ignores dynamics | Provide Trend ↑/↓/→ + horizon + cause |
+| Confusing categories | Putting a legal factor under "Political" muddles the analysis| Strictly separate by PESTEL categories |
+| Focusing solely on negative factors | Opportunities get lost | Nature: 🟢 opportunity / 🔴 risk / 🟡 dual |
+| Lack of geographic focus | Factors vary by country | Always specify region / country |
+| Identical scores for all factors | No differentiation, no priorities | Use the full 1-5 scale, justify each score |
+| Scenarios without trigger points | Unclear when to activate contingency | Trigger: specific condition → specific action |
+| Factors without sources | Cannot be verified, subjective opinions | Each fact must have source and date; >12mo = ⚠️ |
+
+## Output Template
+
+```markdown
+## PEST/PESTEL Analysis: [Subject of Analysis]
+**Region:** [Geography]  |  **Horizon:** [Period]  |  **Mode:** PEST / PESTEL  |  **Date:** [Date]
+
+### Factor Summary Table
+
+| # | Cat. | Factor | Impact (1-5) | Prob. (1-5) | Score | Trend | Nature | Horizon | Source |
+|---|------|--------|:------------:|:-----------:|:-----:|:-----:|:------:|---------|--------|
+| 1 | P | [Factor] | X | X | XX | ↑/↓/→ | 🟢/🔴/🟡 | Short/Mid/Long | [Source] |
+
+### Heatmap (TOP Factors)
+
+| Factor | Score | Trend | Cat. | Nature | Recommendation |
+|--------|:-----:|:-----:|------|:------:|----------------|
+| [Factor] | XX 🔴 | ↑ | [X] | Risk | [Action] |
+
+Thresholds: 🔴 ≥ 16 critical | 🟡 12-15 significant | < 12 background
+
+### Macro-Environment Profile
+
+| Category | Avg. Score | Trend | Evaluation |
+|----------|:----------:|:-----:|------------|
+| Political | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | 🟢 Favorable / 🟡 Neutral / 🔴 Hostile |
+| Economic | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
+| Social | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
+| Technological | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
+| Environmental | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
+| Legal | X.X | ↑/↓/→ | ... |
+
+**Overall profile:** [1-2 sentences]
+
+### Scenario Analysis
+
+| Scenario | Key Assumptions | Business Impact | Probability | Strategic Response |
+|----------|-----------------|-----------------|:-----------:|--------------------|
+| Optimistic | [Which factors improve] | [What it yields] | XX% | [What to do] |
+| Base | [Current trends continue] | [What to expect] | XX% | [What to do] |
+| Pessimistic | [Which factors worsen] | [What the threat is] | XX% | [What to do] |
+
+**Trigger points (pessimistic):** [Under what condition → what action]
+
+### Strategic Recommendations
+
+| # | Factor | Type | Recommendation | Priority | Timeframe |
+|---|--------|:----:|----------------|:--------:|-----------|
+| 1 | [Factor] | 🔴 | [Mitigation] | P1 | [When] |
+| 2 | [Factor] | 🟢 | [How to leverage] | P2 | [When] |
+
+**Review Frequency:** [quarterly / annually]
+
+### Sources and Assumptions
+
+| # | Fact / Assumption | Source | Date | Reliability |
+|---|-------------------|--------|------|:-----------:|
+| 1 | [Fact] | [Source] | [Date] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
+
+Legend: ✅ Verified (2+ sources) | ⚠️ Estimated (1 source) | 🔮 Assumed (expert assessment)
+```