code-ai-installer 3.0.0 → 4.0.1-a

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/saas-metrics/SKILL.md

@@ -1,404 +1,422 @@
----
-name: saas-metrics
-description: B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number
----
-# SaaS Metrics (B2B)
-
-> **Category:** Metrics  ·  **Slug:** `saas-metrics`
-
-## When to Use
-
-- For board / investor reporting — standard SaaS health view.
-- For PRD Success Criteria — how a PM initiative will affect MRR/NRR/churn.
-- For unit economics evaluation — sustainable growth.
-- For strategic decisions — pricing, segment focus, expansion.
-
-## Input
-
-| Field | Required | Description |
-|-------|:--------:|-------------|
-| Finance data | ✅ | Subscription revenue, billing history |
-| CRM data | ✅ | Account status, cohort, upgrades/downgrades |
-| Customer data | ✅ | Cohorts, churn events, contract terms |
-| Costs | ✅ | CAC (S&M spend per acquired), product costs |
-| Period | ✅ | Monthly / quarterly view |
-
-## Data Sources
-
-1. Billing system (Stripe, Chargebee, etc.)
-2. CRM (Salesforce, HubSpot)
-3. Finance (ERP, spreadsheets)
-4. Analytics (usage data for churn prediction)
-
-### Related Skills
-
-| Skill | What we take | When to invoke |
-|-------|-------------|----------------|
-| `aarrr-metrics` | Funnel view | Complement AARRR |
-| `north-star-metric` | NSM alignment | NSM is often a derivative SaaS metric |
-| `hypothesis-template` | Impact modeling | For PRD |
-| `unit-economics` (if available) | Deep unit view | Alternative / complement |
-
-## Core Metrics
-
-### Revenue
-
-- **MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue)** — sum of all active monthly subscriptions (normalized if annual / quarterly)
-  - New MRR (from new customers)
-  - Expansion MRR (upsells, add-ons)
-  - Contraction MRR (downgrades)
-  - Churn MRR (lost to cancellation)
-  - Reactivation MRR (returning customers)
-- **ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)** — MRR × 12
-- **Net New MRR** = New + Expansion − Contraction − Churn
-
-### Churn / Retention
-
-- **Gross Customer Churn** — customers lost / total at start
-- **Net Customer Churn** — (lost − reactivated) / total
-- **Gross Revenue Churn** — MRR lost / total MRR at start
-- **Net Revenue Churn** — (MRR lost − expansion) / total MRR
-  - **Can be negative** (key B2B SaaS metric — «negative churn» = expansion > churn)
-
-### NRR (Net Revenue Retention)
-
-```
-NRR = (Starting MRR + Expansion − Contraction − Churn) / Starting MRR × 100%
-```
-
-**B2B SaaS benchmarks:**
-- 100% = breaking even on existing base
-- 110-120% = healthy B2B
-- 130%+ = world-class (Snowflake, Datadog)
-- < 100% = red flag (shrinking base)
-
-### Unit Economics
-
-- **CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)** — total S&M spend / new customers acquired
-  - Blended: all customers
-  - Paid: acquisition from paid channels only
-- **LTV (Lifetime Value)** — average revenue from customer over their lifetime
-  - Simple: ARPA / gross churn rate
-  - ARPA = Average Revenue Per Account (monthly)
-- **LTV / CAC ratio** — sustainable at 3× or higher
-  - < 1× = destroying value
-  - 1-3× = ok, room for improvement
-  - 3×+ = healthy
-  - 5×+ = possibly under-investing in growth
-- **CAC Payback Period** — months to recover CAC from gross margin
-  - Target: < 12 months (B2B SaaS)
-  - 12-18 months = ok for enterprise
-  - > 24 months = unhealthy
-
-### Growth Health
-
-- **Rule of 40** = Growth Rate (%) + EBITDA Margin (%) ≥ 40%
-  - Trade-off: fast growth allows lower margin, slow growth requires profit
-  - < 40 = not attractive, either grow or profit more
-- **Magic Number** = (ARR this quarter − ARR last quarter) × 4 / Sales & Marketing spend last quarter
-  - > 1 = efficient growth
-  - 0.5-1 = ok
-  - < 0.5 = inefficient S&M
-- **Burn Multiple** = Net Burn / Net New ARR
-  - < 1 = great, more ARR than burn
-  - 1-2 = acceptable
-  - > 2 = worrying
-
-## Protocol
-
-### Step 0 — Period & Scope
-
-- Period: monthly baseline, quarterly for board
-- Scope: all products? per product line? per segment?
-
-### Step 1 — Revenue Decomposition
-
-Monthly waterfall:
-- Starting MRR (carryover from last month)
-- + New MRR
-- + Expansion MRR
-- − Contraction MRR
-- − Churn MRR
-- = Ending MRR
-
-### Step 2 — Cohort Analysis
-
-Track customer cohorts by signup month:
-- Starting count
-- Retention by month (month 1, 3, 6, 12, 24)
-- Revenue expansion per cohort
-- Gross + Net revenue retention curves
-
-B2B healthy: retention curve stabilizes around 60-85% at 12 months (depends on segment).
-
-### Step 3 — Per-Segment
-
-Split metrics by segment:
-- SMB vs mid-market vs enterprise — radically different metrics
-- SMB: higher churn, lower ARPA, shorter payback
-- Enterprise: lower churn, higher ARPA, longer payback, higher NRR
-
-### Step 4 — Unit Economics Per Segment
-
-| Segment | ARPA | Gross Churn | LTV | CAC | LTV/CAC | Payback |
-|---------|:----:|:-----------:|:---:|:---:|:-------:|:-------:|
-| SMB | $50/mo | 4% | $1,250 | $400 | 3.1× | 10 months |
-| Mid-market | $500/mo | 1.5% | $33,333 | $8,000 | 4.2× | 16 months |
-| Enterprise | $5,000/mo | 0.5% | $1M | $150,000 | 6.7× | 24 months |
-
-### Step 5 — Leading Indicators
-
-Predictors for churn / expansion:
-- Usage frequency (decrease = churn risk)
-- Team seats adoption
-- Feature depth
-- Support ticket pattern
-- Renewal risk score
-
-### Step 6 — Benchmark
-
-Compare to industry:
-- SaaS Capital Index
-- OpenView benchmark reports
-- ChartMogul benchmarks
-- Public SaaS companies (10-K filings)
-
-### Step 7 — Forecasting
-
-Modeling:
-- Base + optimistic + pessimistic scenarios
-- New MRR from channels × conversion
-- Expansion from existing cohorts
-- Churn from historical curves
-
-## Validation (Quality Gate)
-
-- [ ] MRR decomposition (new / exp / contract / churn)
-- [ ] Gross + Net churn separated
-- [ ] NRR calculated
-- [ ] LTV / CAC / Payback per segment
-- [ ] Cohort retention curves
-- [ ] Rule of 40 computed
-- [ ] Segment-split present (not only blended)
-- [ ] Benchmarked against industry
-- [ ] Forecasts scenario-based
-
-## Handoff
-
-The result is input for:
-- **`north-star-metric`** — NSM should relate to NRR / retention
-- **`hypothesis-template`** — expected SaaS metric impact per initiative
-- **PRD Success Criteria** — quantified business impact
-- **Board / Exec reporting**
-
-Format: SaaS metrics dashboard / doc. Via `$handoff`.
-
-## Anti-patterns
-
-| Error | Why it's bad | How to do it right |
-|-------|-------------|-------------------|
-| ARR vs MRR confusion | Wrong numbers | MRR × 12 = ARR only for monthly; otherwise careful |
-| Ignore contraction | Over-reports growth | Separate contraction from churn |
-| Only blended metrics | Hides segment truth | Always per-segment |
-| LTV/CAC without payback | Distorted view | Both together |
-| Cherry-pick cohorts | Survivorship bias | All cohorts |
-| Magic Number alone | Pre-revenue misleading | With Burn Multiple |
-| Gross margin confusion | LTV × wrong margin | Gross margin, not revenue LTV |
-
-## Template
-
-```markdown
-# SaaS Metrics Dashboard — Q2 2026
-
-## Revenue Waterfall
-- Starting MRR: $X
-- + New MRR: $Y
-- + Expansion: $Z
-- − Contraction: $A
-- − Churn: $B
-- = Ending MRR: $C
-- Net New MRR: $D
-
-## Retention
-- Gross Rev Churn: X%
-- Net Rev Retention: Y%
-- Customer Gross Churn: Z%
-- Customer Net Churn: A%
-
-## Unit Economics (per segment)
-| Segment | ARPA | Churn | LTV | CAC | LTV/CAC | Payback |
-| SMB | | | | | | |
-| Mid-market | | | | | | |
-| Enterprise | | | | | | |
-
-## Growth Health
-- Rule of 40: [growth%] + [margin%] = X
-- Magic Number: Y
-- Burn Multiple: Z
-
-## Cohort Retention
-[Curve chart by cohort]
-
-## Benchmarks
-- Industry median NRR: 110%
-- Our NRR: 115% ✅
-- ...
-
-## Forecast
-| Scenario | Q3 ARR | Q4 ARR |
-| Base | | |
-| Optimistic | | |
-| Pessimistic | | |
-```
-
-## Worked Example — TeamFlow SaaS Metrics Dashboard Q2 2026
-
-```markdown
-# SaaS Metrics Dashboard — TeamFlow Q2 2026
-
-## Company Snapshot
-- **Stage:** Series B, 5 years post-founding, $8M ARR
-- **Customers:** 200 active (120 SMB + 70 mid-market + 10 enterprise)
-- **Headcount:** 45
-- **Period:** Q2 2026 (April 1 – June 30)
-
----
-
-## Revenue Waterfall (Q2 2026)
-
-| Line Item | Amount | Notes |
-|-----------|--------|-------|
-| **Starting MRR (April 1)** | **$667K** | $8M ARR ÷ 12 |
-| + New MRR (new customers) | +$140K | 14 new customer logos, blended ACV ~$3.3K/mo avg |
-| + Expansion MRR (existing) | +$213K | 38 accounts added seats / upgraded tier (AI Tier early upgrades) |
-| − Contraction MRR | −$20K | 8 accounts downgraded (SMB price sensitivity) |
-| − Churn MRR | −$160K | 5 customer logos churned (matches 2.5% quarterly = ~8% annual gross churn anchor) |
-| = **Ending MRR (June 30)** | **$840K** | |
-| **Net New MRR** | **+$173K** | Health measure: +26% QoQ MRR growth |
-
-Annualized: ARR end of Q2 = $10.08M (12 × $840K). QoQ annualized growth rate: ~26% → trailing annualized ~125% if sustained (optimistic, actual will moderate as AI Tier early-adopter burst fades).
-
-**NRR verification:** (Start − Churn − Contraction + Expansion) / Start = (667 − 160 − 20 + 213) / 667 = 700 / 667 = **105.0%** ✓ matches stated NRR
-
----
-
-## Retention Metrics
-
-| Metric | Value | Benchmark (B2B SaaS median) | Status |
-|--------|:-----:|:--------------------------:|:------:|
-| **Gross Revenue Churn** (Q2) | 2.1% (annualized ~8.4%) | 10-15% annual | ✅ healthy |
-| **Net Revenue Retention (NRR)** | 105% (from 108% Q1) | 115% median | ⚠️ declining |
-| **Customer Gross Churn** (Q2) | 2.5% logo churn (annualized ~10%) | 8-12% annual | ✅ on target |
-| **Customer Net Churn** | −1.5% net (5 churned, 12 expansion reactivation, +9 net) | N/A | |
-
-**Key insight:** NRR dropped 3pp QoQ. Investigation: SMB tier price sensitivity + insufficient expansion motion. **AI tier launch (Q2 late) expected to revert by Q3.**
-
----
-
-## Unit Economics — Per Segment
-
-> All LTV/CAC computed with 80% gross margin (SaaS standard). Segment ARPAs chosen so total ARR ≈ $8M: SMB $432K + Mid $4.2M + Ent $3.6M = $8.23M ≈ $8M anchor.
-
-| Segment | ARPA/mo | ARPA/yr | Gross Churn (annual) | LTV (GM 80%) | CAC | LTV/CAC | CAC Payback |
-|---------|:-------:|:-------:|:--------------------:|:------------:|:---:|:-------:|:-----------:|
-| **SMB** (120 customers) | $300 | $3,600 | 20% | $14,400 | $4,800 | **3.0×** | 24 mo |
-| **Mid-market** (70 customers) | $5,000 | $60,000 | 10% | $480,000 | $80,000 | **6.0×** | 20 mo |
-| **Enterprise** (10 customers) | $30,000 | $360,000 | 5% | $5,760,000 | $600,000 | **9.6×** | 25 mo |
-| **Blended (weighted)** | $3,333 | $40,000 | ~10% | ~$320,000 | ~$60,000 | **~5.3×** | ~22 mo |
-
-**LTV formula:** `LTV = ARPA_annual × gross_margin / annual_gross_churn` (standard B2B SaaS).
-
-**Key insights:**
-- **Enterprise economics excellent** — 9.6× LTV/CAC justifies aggressive investment in enterprise GTM.
-- **SMB at 3× threshold** — healthy but sensitive to churn deterioration; SMB price tier needs ongoing optimization.
-- **Blended 5.3×** — above industry median (3.0×), room for continued S&M expansion.
-- **Strategic question:** double down on SMB volume or shift mix to mid+ where unit economics sing?
-
----
-
-## Growth Health Metrics
-
-| Metric | Value | Target | Status |
-|--------|:-----:|:------:|:------:|
-| **Rule of 40** = Growth% + EBITDA% | 52% + (−15%) = **37%** | ≥ 40% | ⚠️ just below |
-| **Magic Number** (S&M efficiency) | **1.15** | > 1.0 | ✅ efficient |
-| **Burn Multiple** (Net Burn / Net New ARR) | **1.8×** | < 1.5× | ⚠️ slightly high |
-| **Pipeline Coverage** (pipeline / quota) | 3.2× | ≥ 3× | ✅ healthy |
-
-**Investor narrative:**
-- Rule of 40 at 37% — «tight but growing»; AI tier launch strategy aims to add 5pp to growth rate without increasing burn
-- Magic Number 1.15 supports continued S&M investment
-- Burn Multiple 1.8× reflects R&D investment in AI — justified, will normalize post-MVP
-
----
-
-## Cohort Retention Curves
-
-**Q1 2025 cohort retention (by month):**
-
-| Month | # Remaining | Retention | Revenue Retention |
-|:-----:|:-----------:|:---------:|:-----------------:|
-| Month 1 | 38 of 40 | 95% | 98% |
-| Month 3 | 34 | 85% | 92% |
-| Month 6 | 31 | 78% | 105% (expansion >churn) |
-| Month 12 | 28 | 70% | 118% |
-| Month 24 | 25 | 63% | 142% |
-
-**Interpretation:**
-- **Logo retention decays** (63% at 24 mo)
-- **Revenue retention grows** (142% at 24 mo) — strong expansion per retained account
-- **Pattern typical for B2B SaaS** — few big accounts expand aggressively, offset logo loss
-
-**Cohort comparison:**
-- **Q2 2024 cohort:** 60% at 24mo (slightly worse) — improving over time
-- **Q1 2026 cohort:** 95% at 3mo (much stronger) — new motion paying off
-
----
-
-## Key Metric: «Sticky Manager Ratio» (NSM Tracking)
-
-- **Baseline (pre-AI tier):** 0% (feature not existing)
-- **90-day target (post AI tier launch):** 20%
-- **Current (projected):** on track for 18% by end Q2, pull back 2pp to target with continued GTM
-
----
-
-## Benchmark Comparison (Industry)
-
-| Metric | TeamFlow | Median B2B SaaS | Top Quartile |
-|--------|:--------:|:--------------:|:------------:|
-| NRR | 105% | 110% | 125%+ |
-| Gross Churn | 8% | 10% | <6% |
-| LTV/CAC (blended) | 2.8× | 3.0× | 5.0×+ |
-| Rule of 40 | 37% | 40% | 60%+ |
-| Magic Number | 1.15 | 0.9 | 1.5+ |
-
-**Overall position:** Middle of pack. Magic Number above median, but NRR / LTV-CAC below. AI tier strategy aims to pull all three into top-quartile by Q4 2026.
-
----
-
-## Scenario Forecasts (Q3-Q4 2026)
-
-| Scenario | Q3 ARR | Q4 ARR | Key Assumptions |
-|----------|:------:|:------:|-----------------|
-| **Base** | $9.5M | $10.8M | AI tier adoption hits 15% by Q3, 25% by Q4; NRR climbs to 110% |
-| **Optimistic** | $10.2M | $12.5M | AI tier adoption 20%+ by Q3, 5 new Enterprise deals, NRR 115% |
-| **Pessimistic** | $8.8M | $9.5M | AI tier adoption <10%, continued SMB churn, NRR stays 105% |
-
-**Factors for base/optimistic pivot:**
-- H-001 (WTP) validation — if WTP confirmed, optimistic scenario triggered
-- LLM quality H-002 pass — if passes, all scenarios possible; fail pushes to pessimistic
-- Enterprise tier conversion — 5 deals in Q2 is base; 10+ triggers optimistic
-
----
-
-## Action Items (for Leadership)
-
-1. **NRR decline watch:** weekly tracking, intervention plan prepared if NRR <100% at any week
-2. **SMB churn deep-dive:** cash flow analysis of 14 Q2 churn events — patterns?
-3. **AI tier launch execution:** on track, but marketing amplification needed (CRO ownership)
-4. **Enterprise tier pipeline:** 8 deals in active negotiation — 5 closing target by Q2 end; ensure SOC 2 attestation unblocks them
-5. **Q3 planning:** post-H-002 validation, allocate R&D between AI iteration vs Enterprise tier features
-```
-
-> **saas-metrics lesson:** Blended metrics **hide** segment realities — Enterprise 11× LTV/CAC vs SMB 2.87× requires completely different strategies. **Cohort analysis reveals time-dynamics** — logo churn looks bad, but revenue retention growth compensates (typical B2B). **NRR trend (not absolute)** matters more than point value — 108→105 is worth investigating even though 105 acceptable. **Scenario forecasts** tied to **validated/pending hypotheses** — not random assumptions. Dashboard tells story: «we're middle-pack, AI tier is our move to top-quartile, here are the leading indicators».
+---
+name: saas-metrics
+description: B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number
+type: triggered
+domain: product
+owners:
+  - data_analyst
+gates:
+  - DATA_ANALYST
+tech: []
+topic: []
+triggers:
+  - "saas-metrics"
+  - "SaaS-метрики (B2B)"
+  - "MRR ARR"
+  - "churn"
+  - "LTV CAC"
+  - "Rule of 40"
+related: []
+budget_lines: 422
+schema_version: 1
+---
+# SaaS Metrics (B2B)
+
+> **Category:** Metrics  ·  **Slug:** `saas-metrics`
+
+## When to Use
+
+- For board / investor reporting — standard SaaS health view.
+- For PRD Success Criteria — how a PM initiative will affect MRR/NRR/churn.
+- For unit economics evaluation — sustainable growth.
+- For strategic decisions — pricing, segment focus, expansion.
+
+## Input
+
+| Field | Required | Description |
+|-------|:--------:|-------------|
+| Finance data | ✅ | Subscription revenue, billing history |
+| CRM data | ✅ | Account status, cohort, upgrades/downgrades |
+| Customer data | ✅ | Cohorts, churn events, contract terms |
+| Costs | ✅ | CAC (S&M spend per acquired), product costs |
+| Period | ✅ | Monthly / quarterly view |
+
+## Data Sources
+
+1. Billing system (Stripe, Chargebee, etc.)
+2. CRM (Salesforce, HubSpot)
+3. Finance (ERP, spreadsheets)
+4. Analytics (usage data for churn prediction)
+
+### Related Skills
+
+| Skill | What we take | When to invoke |
+|-------|-------------|----------------|
+| `aarrr-metrics` | Funnel view | Complement AARRR |
+| `north-star-metric` | NSM alignment | NSM is often a derivative SaaS metric |
+| `hypothesis-template` | Impact modeling | For PRD |
+| `unit-economics` (if available) | Deep unit view | Alternative / complement |
+
+## Core Metrics
+
+### Revenue
+
+- **MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue)** — sum of all active monthly subscriptions (normalized if annual / quarterly)
+  - New MRR (from new customers)
+  - Expansion MRR (upsells, add-ons)
+  - Contraction MRR (downgrades)
+  - Churn MRR (lost to cancellation)
+  - Reactivation MRR (returning customers)
+- **ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)** — MRR × 12
+- **Net New MRR** = New + Expansion − Contraction − Churn
+
+### Churn / Retention
+
+- **Gross Customer Churn** — customers lost / total at start
+- **Net Customer Churn** — (lost − reactivated) / total
+- **Gross Revenue Churn** — MRR lost / total MRR at start
+- **Net Revenue Churn** — (MRR lost − expansion) / total MRR
+  - **Can be negative** (key B2B SaaS metric — «negative churn» = expansion > churn)
+
+### NRR (Net Revenue Retention)
+
+```
+NRR = (Starting MRR + Expansion − Contraction − Churn) / Starting MRR × 100%
+```
+
+**B2B SaaS benchmarks:**
+- 100% = breaking even on existing base
+- 110-120% = healthy B2B
+- 130%+ = world-class (Snowflake, Datadog)
+- < 100% = red flag (shrinking base)
+
+### Unit Economics
+
+- **CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)** — total S&M spend / new customers acquired
+  - Blended: all customers
+  - Paid: acquisition from paid channels only
+- **LTV (Lifetime Value)** — average revenue from customer over their lifetime
+  - Simple: ARPA / gross churn rate
+  - ARPA = Average Revenue Per Account (monthly)
+- **LTV / CAC ratio** — sustainable at 3× or higher
+  - < 1× = destroying value
+  - 1-3× = ok, room for improvement
+  - 3×+ = healthy
+  - 5×+ = possibly under-investing in growth
+- **CAC Payback Period** — months to recover CAC from gross margin
+  - Target: < 12 months (B2B SaaS)
+  - 12-18 months = ok for enterprise
+  - > 24 months = unhealthy
+
+### Growth Health
+
+- **Rule of 40** = Growth Rate (%) + EBITDA Margin (%) ≥ 40%
+  - Trade-off: fast growth allows lower margin, slow growth requires profit
+  - < 40 = not attractive, either grow or profit more
+- **Magic Number** = (ARR this quarter − ARR last quarter) × 4 / Sales & Marketing spend last quarter
+  - > 1 = efficient growth
+  - 0.5-1 = ok
+  - < 0.5 = inefficient S&M
+- **Burn Multiple** = Net Burn / Net New ARR
+  - < 1 = great, more ARR than burn
+  - 1-2 = acceptable
+  - > 2 = worrying
+
+## Protocol
+
+### Step 0 — Period & Scope
+
+- Period: monthly baseline, quarterly for board
+- Scope: all products? per product line? per segment?
+
+### Step 1 — Revenue Decomposition
+
+Monthly waterfall:
+- Starting MRR (carryover from last month)
+- + New MRR
+- + Expansion MRR
+- − Contraction MRR
+- − Churn MRR
+- = Ending MRR
+
+### Step 2 — Cohort Analysis
+
+Track customer cohorts by signup month:
+- Starting count
+- Retention by month (month 1, 3, 6, 12, 24)
+- Revenue expansion per cohort
+- Gross + Net revenue retention curves
+
+B2B healthy: retention curve stabilizes around 60-85% at 12 months (depends on segment).
+
+### Step 3 — Per-Segment
+
+Split metrics by segment:
+- SMB vs mid-market vs enterprise — radically different metrics
+- SMB: higher churn, lower ARPA, shorter payback
+- Enterprise: lower churn, higher ARPA, longer payback, higher NRR
+
+### Step 4 — Unit Economics Per Segment
+
+| Segment | ARPA | Gross Churn | LTV | CAC | LTV/CAC | Payback |
+|---------|:----:|:-----------:|:---:|:---:|:-------:|:-------:|
+| SMB | $50/mo | 4% | $1,250 | $400 | 3.1× | 10 months |
+| Mid-market | $500/mo | 1.5% | $33,333 | $8,000 | 4.2× | 16 months |
+| Enterprise | $5,000/mo | 0.5% | $1M | $150,000 | 6.7× | 24 months |
+
+### Step 5 — Leading Indicators
+
+Predictors for churn / expansion:
+- Usage frequency (decrease = churn risk)
+- Team seats adoption
+- Feature depth
+- Support ticket pattern
+- Renewal risk score
+
+### Step 6 — Benchmark
+
+Compare to industry:
+- SaaS Capital Index
+- OpenView benchmark reports
+- ChartMogul benchmarks
+- Public SaaS companies (10-K filings)
+
+### Step 7 — Forecasting
+
+Modeling:
+- Base + optimistic + pessimistic scenarios
+- New MRR from channels × conversion
+- Expansion from existing cohorts
+- Churn from historical curves
+
+## Validation (Quality Gate)
+
+- [ ] MRR decomposition (new / exp / contract / churn)
+- [ ] Gross + Net churn separated
+- [ ] NRR calculated
+- [ ] LTV / CAC / Payback per segment
+- [ ] Cohort retention curves
+- [ ] Rule of 40 computed
+- [ ] Segment-split present (not only blended)
+- [ ] Benchmarked against industry
+- [ ] Forecasts scenario-based
+
+## Handoff
+
+The result is input for:
+- **`north-star-metric`** — NSM should relate to NRR / retention
+- **`hypothesis-template`** — expected SaaS metric impact per initiative
+- **PRD Success Criteria** — quantified business impact
+- **Board / Exec reporting**
+
+Format: SaaS metrics dashboard / doc. Via `$handoff`.
+
+## Anti-patterns
+
+| Error | Why it's bad | How to do it right |
+|-------|-------------|-------------------|
+| ARR vs MRR confusion | Wrong numbers | MRR × 12 = ARR only for monthly; otherwise careful |
+| Ignore contraction | Over-reports growth | Separate contraction from churn |
+| Only blended metrics | Hides segment truth | Always per-segment |
+| LTV/CAC without payback | Distorted view | Both together |
+| Cherry-pick cohorts | Survivorship bias | All cohorts |
+| Magic Number alone | Pre-revenue misleading | With Burn Multiple |
+| Gross margin confusion | LTV × wrong margin | Gross margin, not revenue LTV |
+
+## Template
+
+```markdown
+# SaaS Metrics Dashboard — Q2 2026
+
+## Revenue Waterfall
+- Starting MRR: $X
+- + New MRR: $Y
+- + Expansion: $Z
+- − Contraction: $A
+- − Churn: $B
+- = Ending MRR: $C
+- Net New MRR: $D
+
+## Retention
+- Gross Rev Churn: X%
+- Net Rev Retention: Y%
+- Customer Gross Churn: Z%
+- Customer Net Churn: A%
+
+## Unit Economics (per segment)
+| Segment | ARPA | Churn | LTV | CAC | LTV/CAC | Payback |
+| SMB | | | | | | |
+| Mid-market | | | | | | |
+| Enterprise | | | | | | |
+
+## Growth Health
+- Rule of 40: [growth%] + [margin%] = X
+- Magic Number: Y
+- Burn Multiple: Z
+
+## Cohort Retention
+[Curve chart by cohort]
+
+## Benchmarks
+- Industry median NRR: 110%
+- Our NRR: 115% ✅
+- ...
+
+## Forecast
+| Scenario | Q3 ARR | Q4 ARR |
+| Base | | |
+| Optimistic | | |
+| Pessimistic | | |
+```
+
+## Worked Example — TeamFlow SaaS Metrics Dashboard Q2 2026
+
+```markdown
+# SaaS Metrics Dashboard — TeamFlow Q2 2026
+
+## Company Snapshot
+- **Stage:** Series B, 5 years post-founding, $8M ARR
+- **Customers:** 200 active (120 SMB + 70 mid-market + 10 enterprise)
+- **Headcount:** 45
+- **Period:** Q2 2026 (April 1 – June 30)
+
+---
+
+## Revenue Waterfall (Q2 2026)
+
+| Line Item | Amount | Notes |
+|-----------|--------|-------|
+| **Starting MRR (April 1)** | **$667K** | $8M ARR ÷ 12 |
+| + New MRR (new customers) | +$140K | 14 new customer logos, blended ACV ~$3.3K/mo avg |
+| + Expansion MRR (existing) | +$213K | 38 accounts added seats / upgraded tier (AI Tier early upgrades) |
+| − Contraction MRR | −$20K | 8 accounts downgraded (SMB price sensitivity) |
+| − Churn MRR | −$160K | 5 customer logos churned (matches 2.5% quarterly = ~8% annual gross churn anchor) |
+| = **Ending MRR (June 30)** | **$840K** | |
+| **Net New MRR** | **+$173K** | Health measure: +26% QoQ MRR growth |
+
+Annualized: ARR end of Q2 = $10.08M (12 × $840K). QoQ annualized growth rate: ~26% → trailing annualized ~125% if sustained (optimistic, actual will moderate as AI Tier early-adopter burst fades).
+
+**NRR verification:** (Start − Churn − Contraction + Expansion) / Start = (667 − 160 − 20 + 213) / 667 = 700 / 667 = **105.0%** ✓ matches stated NRR
+
+---
+
+## Retention Metrics
+
+| Metric | Value | Benchmark (B2B SaaS median) | Status |
+|--------|:-----:|:--------------------------:|:------:|
+| **Gross Revenue Churn** (Q2) | 2.1% (annualized ~8.4%) | 10-15% annual | ✅ healthy |
+| **Net Revenue Retention (NRR)** | 105% (from 108% Q1) | 115% median | ⚠️ declining |
+| **Customer Gross Churn** (Q2) | 2.5% logo churn (annualized ~10%) | 8-12% annual | ✅ on target |
+| **Customer Net Churn** | −1.5% net (5 churned, 12 expansion reactivation, +9 net) | N/A | |
+
+**Key insight:** NRR dropped 3pp QoQ. Investigation: SMB tier price sensitivity + insufficient expansion motion. **AI tier launch (Q2 late) expected to revert by Q3.**
+
+---
+
+## Unit Economics — Per Segment
+
+> All LTV/CAC computed with 80% gross margin (SaaS standard). Segment ARPAs chosen so total ARR ≈ $8M: SMB $432K + Mid $4.2M + Ent $3.6M = $8.23M ≈ $8M anchor.
+
+| Segment | ARPA/mo | ARPA/yr | Gross Churn (annual) | LTV (GM 80%) | CAC | LTV/CAC | CAC Payback |
+|---------|:-------:|:-------:|:--------------------:|:------------:|:---:|:-------:|:-----------:|
+| **SMB** (120 customers) | $300 | $3,600 | 20% | $14,400 | $4,800 | **3.0×** | 24 mo |
+| **Mid-market** (70 customers) | $5,000 | $60,000 | 10% | $480,000 | $80,000 | **6.0×** | 20 mo |
+| **Enterprise** (10 customers) | $30,000 | $360,000 | 5% | $5,760,000 | $600,000 | **9.6×** | 25 mo |
+| **Blended (weighted)** | $3,333 | $40,000 | ~10% | ~$320,000 | ~$60,000 | **~5.3×** | ~22 mo |
+
+**LTV formula:** `LTV = ARPA_annual × gross_margin / annual_gross_churn` (standard B2B SaaS).
+
+**Key insights:**
+- **Enterprise economics excellent** — 9.6× LTV/CAC justifies aggressive investment in enterprise GTM.
+- **SMB at 3× threshold** — healthy but sensitive to churn deterioration; SMB price tier needs ongoing optimization.
+- **Blended 5.3×** — above industry median (3.0×), room for continued S&M expansion.
+- **Strategic question:** double down on SMB volume or shift mix to mid+ where unit economics sing?
+
+---
+
+## Growth Health Metrics
+
+| Metric | Value | Target | Status |
+|--------|:-----:|:------:|:------:|
+| **Rule of 40** = Growth% + EBITDA% | 52% + (−15%) = **37%** | ≥ 40% | ⚠️ just below |
+| **Magic Number** (S&M efficiency) | **1.15** | > 1.0 | ✅ efficient |
+| **Burn Multiple** (Net Burn / Net New ARR) | **1.8×** | < 1.5× | ⚠️ slightly high |
+| **Pipeline Coverage** (pipeline / quota) | 3.2× | ≥ 3× | ✅ healthy |
+
+**Investor narrative:**
+- Rule of 40 at 37% — «tight but growing»; AI tier launch strategy aims to add 5pp to growth rate without increasing burn
+- Magic Number 1.15 supports continued S&M investment
+- Burn Multiple 1.8× reflects R&D investment in AI — justified, will normalize post-MVP
+
+---
+
+## Cohort Retention Curves
+
+**Q1 2025 cohort retention (by month):**
+
+| Month | # Remaining | Retention | Revenue Retention |
+|:-----:|:-----------:|:---------:|:-----------------:|
+| Month 1 | 38 of 40 | 95% | 98% |
+| Month 3 | 34 | 85% | 92% |
+| Month 6 | 31 | 78% | 105% (expansion >churn) |
+| Month 12 | 28 | 70% | 118% |
+| Month 24 | 25 | 63% | 142% |
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- **Logo retention decays** (63% at 24 mo)
+- **Revenue retention grows** (142% at 24 mo) — strong expansion per retained account
+- **Pattern typical for B2B SaaS** — few big accounts expand aggressively, offset logo loss
+
+**Cohort comparison:**
+- **Q2 2024 cohort:** 60% at 24mo (slightly worse) — improving over time
+- **Q1 2026 cohort:** 95% at 3mo (much stronger) — new motion paying off
+
+---
+
+## Key Metric: «Sticky Manager Ratio» (NSM Tracking)
+
+- **Baseline (pre-AI tier):** 0% (feature not existing)
+- **90-day target (post AI tier launch):** 20%
+- **Current (projected):** on track for 18% by end Q2, pull back 2pp to target with continued GTM
+
+---
+
+## Benchmark Comparison (Industry)
+
+| Metric | TeamFlow | Median B2B SaaS | Top Quartile |
+|--------|:--------:|:--------------:|:------------:|
+| NRR | 105% | 110% | 125%+ |
+| Gross Churn | 8% | 10% | <6% |
+| LTV/CAC (blended) | 2.8× | 3.0× | 5.0×+ |
+| Rule of 40 | 37% | 40% | 60%+ |
+| Magic Number | 1.15 | 0.9 | 1.5+ |
+
+**Overall position:** Middle of pack. Magic Number above median, but NRR / LTV-CAC below. AI tier strategy aims to pull all three into top-quartile by Q4 2026.
+
+---
+
+## Scenario Forecasts (Q3-Q4 2026)
+
+| Scenario | Q3 ARR | Q4 ARR | Key Assumptions |
+|----------|:------:|:------:|-----------------|
+| **Base** | $9.5M | $10.8M | AI tier adoption hits 15% by Q3, 25% by Q4; NRR climbs to 110% |
+| **Optimistic** | $10.2M | $12.5M | AI tier adoption 20%+ by Q3, 5 new Enterprise deals, NRR 115% |
+| **Pessimistic** | $8.8M | $9.5M | AI tier adoption <10%, continued SMB churn, NRR stays 105% |
+
+**Factors for base/optimistic pivot:**
+- H-001 (WTP) validation — if WTP confirmed, optimistic scenario triggered
+- LLM quality H-002 pass — if passes, all scenarios possible; fail pushes to pessimistic
+- Enterprise tier conversion — 5 deals in Q2 is base; 10+ triggers optimistic
+
+---
+
+## Action Items (for Leadership)
+
+1. **NRR decline watch:** weekly tracking, intervention plan prepared if NRR <100% at any week
+2. **SMB churn deep-dive:** cash flow analysis of 14 Q2 churn events — patterns?
+3. **AI tier launch execution:** on track, but marketing amplification needed (CRO ownership)
+4. **Enterprise tier pipeline:** 8 deals in active negotiation — 5 closing target by Q2 end; ensure SOC 2 attestation unblocks them
+5. **Q3 planning:** post-H-002 validation, allocate R&D between AI iteration vs Enterprise tier features
+```
+
+> **saas-metrics lesson:** Blended metrics **hide** segment realities — Enterprise 11× LTV/CAC vs SMB 2.87× requires completely different strategies. **Cohort analysis reveals time-dynamics** — logo churn looks bad, but revenue retention growth compensates (typical B2B). **NRR trend (not absolute)** matters more than point value — 108→105 is worth investigating even though 105 acceptable. **Scenario forecasts** tied to **validated/pending hypotheses** — not random assumptions. Dashboard tells story: «we're middle-pack, AI tier is our move to top-quartile, here are the leading indicators».