code-ai-installer 3.0.0 → 4.0.1-a

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/aarrr-metrics/SKILL.md

@@ -1,433 +1,451 @@
----
-name: aarrr-metrics
-description: Pirate metrics — Acquisition, Activation, Retention, Referral, Revenue — adapted for B2B
----
-# AARRR Metrics (B2B adapted)
-
-> **Category:** Metrics  ·  **Slug:** `aarrr-metrics`
-
-## When to Use
-
-- For funnel analysis and identifying drop-off points.
-- For growth team priorities (which stage is weakest?).
-- For onboarding optimization — Activation as the key stage.
-- For product-led growth strategy.
-
-## Input
-
-| Field | Required | Description |
-|-------|:--------:|-------------|
-| Product analytics | ✅ | Event data, funnel |
-| CRM data | ✅ | Accounts, stages |
-| Usage data | ✅ | Daily/weekly activity |
-| Revenue data | ✅ | Conversion, upgrades |
-
-## Data Sources
-
-1. Product analytics (Amplitude, Mixpanel).
-2. CRM — lead → customer journey.
-3. Marketing analytics — acquisition channels.
-4. Finance — revenue per customer.
-
-### Related Skills
-
-| Skill | What we take | When to call |
-|-------|-------------|--------------|
-| `saas-metrics` | Revenue layer | For R (Revenue) stage |
-| `north-star-metric` | NSM | Usually aligned with one stage |
-| `hypothesis-template` | Per-stage tests | Per stage improvement |
-
-## Five Stages
-
-### A1 — Acquisition
-
-How users find + arrive in the product.
-
-**B2B metrics:**
-- MQLs (marketing qualified leads)
-- SQLs (sales qualified leads)
-- Trial signups
-- Demo requests
-- Direct signups (PLG)
-- By channel: organic, paid, referral, content, outbound
-
-**Channel attribution** — multi-touch attribution is better than last-touch for B2B (long sales cycle).
-
-### A2 — Activation
-
-**First meaningful moment** the user gets value. B2B adapted — not just signup.
-
-**Definition examples:**
-- Team created + ≥3 members invited
-- First integration connected
-- First production deployment
-- First report generated and shared
-- First billing setup
-
-**Activation rate** = activated users / acquired users.
-
-**Time to activate** = signup → activation timeframe.
-
-B2B-specific: activation often takes days/weeks (not minutes like B2C).
-
-### R1 — Retention
-
-Returning to get value.
-
-**B2B retention metrics:**
-- W/W active (teams, users, accounts)
-- M/M active
-- Activity depth (features used, actions/week)
-- Account-level retention curves
-
-**Leading indicator of churn** — if retention drops, churn follows.
-
-### R2 — Referral
-
-Users bringing others.
-
-**B2B referral signals:**
-- In-product invites sent
-- Invite → acceptance rate
-- External referrals (partnership, word-of-mouth)
-- Account expansion (new seats added by existing admins)
-- Case studies / logos (customer advocacy)
-
-**K-factor** = new users per existing user (typically < 1 for B2B, but can be >1 for viral tools).
-
-### R3 — Revenue
-
-Monetization.
-
-**B2B metrics:**
-- Trial → paid conversion
-- Freemium → paid conversion
-- ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account)
-- Expansion revenue (upsells, seat growth, tier upgrade)
-- Revenue per activated user
-
-## Protocol
-
-### Step 0 — Map Funnel to Product
-
-Define each stage for your product specifically. Same AARRR framework, different implementations.
-
-### Step 1 — Instrumentation
-
-Events per stage:
-- A1: `signup`, `demo_requested`, `trial_started`
-- A2: `activation_event_X` (define specific)
-- R1: `active_week` (how defined: ≥1 login or core action?)
-- R2: `invite_sent`, `referral_signup`
-- R3: `trial_to_paid`, `upsell_event`
-
-### Step 2 — Funnel Calculation
-
-```
-Acquisition →  Activation  →  Retention  →  Revenue
-   100           35            27            20
-              (35%          (77%            (74%
-           conversion)    retention)       monetization)
-   
-Referral (parallel): 12% of actives send invites, 30% accept → 4% new from referrals
-```
-
-### Step 3 — Identify Weakest Stage
-
-"One that's the weakest limits them all."
-
-Calculate stage conversion rates, compare to industry benchmarks:
-- SaaS typical acquisition → activation: 20-40%
-- Typical activation → 30-day retention: 60-80%
-
-Identify gap vs benchmark.
-
-### Step 4 — Per-Segment AARRR
-
-B2B SaaS has wildly different AARRR per segment:
-- SMB: short funnel, higher activation rate, higher churn
-- Enterprise: long sales cycle, slower activation, very low churn
-
-Per-segment funnel gives the actual picture.
-
-### Step 5 — Cohort View
-
-AARRR by cohort (by signup month):
-- Retention curves by cohort
-- Activation rates by cohort
-- Revenue per cohort
-
-Spot trends (onboarding changes? marketing shift?).
-
-### Step 6 — Stage-Specific Playbooks
-
-**If Acquisition weak:**
-- Channel mix review
-- Message-market fit testing
-- SEO / content
-- Paid channel optimization
-
-**If Activation weak:**
-- Onboarding flow
-- In-app guides
-- First-value experience
-- Personalized onboarding by role
-
-**If Retention weak:**
-- Feature adoption drives
-- Re-engagement campaigns
-- Customer health scoring
-- Sticky feature development
-
-**If Referral weak:**
-- In-product invite flow
-- Incentive programs
-- NPS → advocacy pipeline
-
-**If Revenue weak:**
-- Pricing / packaging test
-- Upsell paths
-- Trial conversion optimization
-- Expansion playbooks
-
-### Step 7 — Continuous Reviews
-
-Weekly: funnel metrics trends.
-Monthly: cohort analysis, segment view.
-Quarterly: stage-level deep dives, playbook updates.
-
-## Validation (Quality Gate)
-
-- [ ] All 5 stages defined for product
-- [ ] Events instrumented per stage
-- [ ] Funnel conversion rates computed
-- [ ] Benchmark comparison
-- [ ] Per-segment split
-- [ ] Cohort view
-- [ ] Weakest stage identified
-- [ ] Stage-specific playbook
-
-## Handoff
-
-The result is the input for:
-- **`saas-metrics`** — Revenue stage deep-dive
-- **`north-star-metric`** — NSM tied to one AARRR stage
-- **PM** → prioritize initiatives by weakest stage
-- **Data Analyst** → instrumentation requirements
-
-Format: AARRR funnel doc (numbers + charts). Via `$handoff`.
-
-## Anti-patterns
-
-| Error | Why it's bad | How to do it right |
-|-------|-------------|-------------------|
-| Activation = signup | Trivially high, meaningless | Define meaningful first value |
-| B2C-style K-factor obsession | Unrealistic B2B | K < 1 typical, focus expansion |
-| All focus on Acquisition | Leaky bucket | Fix retention first |
-| No per-segment | Hides truth | Always segment |
-| No cohorts | Survivorship bias | Cohort view always |
-| Ignore downstream stages | Acquisition looks good, churn kills | Review end-to-end |
-
-## Template
-
-```markdown
-# AARRR Funnel — Q2 2026
-
-## Stage Definitions
-- **Acquisition:** signup OR demo requested
-- **Activation:** team ≥ 3 members + 1 integration connected
-- **Retention:** active in any week N+1..N+4 after activation
-- **Referral:** invite sent in-product
-- **Revenue:** trial → paid conversion
-
-## Funnel (last 30 days)
-| Stage | Count | Conversion |
-| Acquisition | 5,000 | — |
-| Activation | 1,800 | 36% |
-| Retention (30d) | 1,200 | 67% |
-| Referral (invite) | 340 | 28% |
-| Revenue (paid) | 420 | 35% |
-
-## Per-Segment
-| Segment | Acq | Activation | Retention | Revenue |
-| SMB | 3,800 | 40% | 60% | 30% |
-| Mid-market | 1,000 | 30% | 75% | 45% |
-| Enterprise | 200 | 20% | 85% | 60% |
-
-## Weakest Stage
-Activation (36%) — below benchmark 50% for SMB.
-Playbook: onboarding checklist test (see hypothesis H-027).
-
-## Cohort Retention (Month 1, 3, 6)
-[Chart]
-```
-
-## Worked Example — TeamFlow AARRR Funnel Q2 2026
-
-```markdown
-# AARRR Funnel — TeamFlow Q2 2026 (with AI Tier Launch Impact)
-
-## Stage Definitions (B2B-adapted for TeamFlow)
-
-- **Acquisition:** Company signs up for TeamFlow (trial, demo, or direct signup)
-- **Activation:** Within 14 days of signup:
-  - Account has ≥ 3 managers set up
-  - ≥ 10 employee profiles imported
-  - ≥ 1 team created with ≥ 1 1:1 scheduled
-- **Retention:** Account has ≥ 1 active manager (any 1:1 in past 7 days) in any week post-activation
-- **Referral:** In-product invite sent by existing manager to another manager in their org
-- **Revenue:** Trial → paid conversion, OR existing tier → higher tier (e.g., Team → Enterprise)
-
----
-
-## Full Funnel (Q2 2026, blended)
-
-```
-Acquisition (new accounts)      78 accounts
-   │    61% of signups activate
-   ▼
-Activation (within 14 days)     48 accounts
-   │    82% retain past 30 days
-   ▼
-Retention (30d active)          39 accounts
-   │    64% make in-product invites
-   ▼
-Referral (invites sent)         25 accounts (avg 3 invites each = 75 new manager invites)
-   │    35% of active accounts convert to paid
-   ▼
-Revenue (paid conversion)       17 new paid accounts
-```
-
-**Overall Acquisition → Paid conversion: 17 / 78 = 22%**
-
----
-
-## Per-Segment Breakdown
-
-| Segment | Acquisition | Activation | Activation Rate | Retention 30d | Retention Rate | Revenue Conv | Revenue Rate |
-|---------|:-----------:|:----------:|:---------------:|:-------------:|:--------------:|:------------:|:------------:|
-| **SMB (5-99 employees)** | 58 | 30 | 52% | 22 | 73% | 9 paid | 30% |
-| **Mid-market (100-499)** | 16 | 14 | 88% | 14 | 100% | 6 paid | 43% |
-| **Enterprise (500+)** | 4 | 4 | 100% | 3 | 75%* | 2 paid | 67% |
-
-*Enterprise retention dropped due to 1 deal not closing — shown for transparency
-
-**Observations:**
-- **SMB activation gap:** 52% vs 88% mid-market — major drop-off
-- **Mid-market retention excellent:** 100% retention past 30 days
-- **Enterprise has highest revenue conversion** but smallest absolute numbers
-
----
-
-## Stage-Level Deep Dive
-
-### Acquisition (78 accounts)
-
-| Channel | Acquisitions | % of total | Trend QoQ |
-|---------|:-----------:|:----------:|:---------:|
-| Inbound (organic web) | 34 | 44% | +12% |
-| Paid (Google / LinkedIn) | 18 | 23% | −8% |
-| Referral (existing customers) | 14 | 18% | +35% |
-| Content (blog / webinars) | 8 | 10% | +5% |
-| Outbound sales | 4 | 5% | Flat |
-
-**Insight:** Referral grew 35% QoQ — biggest leading indicator of product-market fit.
-
-### Activation (61% rate — below 70% benchmark)
-
-**Funnel decomposition — why do 30 accounts fail activation?**
-
-| Drop-off Reason | Count | % of drop-offs |
-|-----------------|:-----:|:-------------:|
-| Didn't finish manager setup (only 1-2 managers added) | 14 | 47% |
-| Didn't import employees | 8 | 27% |
-| Created team but no 1:1 scheduled | 6 | 20% |
-| Opened product but <3 logins in 14 days | 2 | 7% |
-
-**Playbook investment:**
-- Onboarding checklist test (EXP-025) aims to drive activation rate to 70%+
-- Integration auto-import from HRIS (Q3 roadmap) for employee import pain
-
-### Retention (82% at 30 days, 71% at 90 days)
-
-**Stickiness indicator:** Manager WAU/MAU
-- **Q1 baseline:** 48% (daily active managers / monthly active managers)
-- **Q2 current:** 52% (trending upward since AI tier launch)
-- **Top-quartile benchmark:** 60%+
-
-**Cohort retention curves:**
-```
-Cohort        Mo 1    Mo 3    Mo 6    Mo 12
-Q1 2025       95%     78%     70%     63%
-Q2 2025       96%     82%     75%     69%
-Q3 2025       94%     80%     73%     (pending)
-Q4 2025       97%     85%     (pending)  
-Q1 2026       95%     (pending)
-```
-
-Improving trend — product gets stickier over time.
-
-### Referral (64% of retained accounts sent invites)
-
-**Referral K-factor:** 0.23 (new accounts from referrals / existing accounts × period)
-- **Typical B2B SaaS:** K 0.1-0.3
-- **Our position:** healthy
-
-**Invite-to-signup rate:** 28% (invites sent → person signs up as manager)
-- Mostly internal growth (adding more managers within existing customer)
-- ~15% external (to another org entirely)
-
-### Revenue (35% conversion)
-
-**Trial → Paid conversion rate:** 35% overall
-
-| Trigger | Accounts | % of conversions |
-|---------|:--------:|:----------------:|
-| Manual sales outreach | 6 | 35% |
-| In-product trial expiry prompt | 5 | 29% |
-| Tier upgrade from free tier | 4 | 24% |
-| Self-serve at signup | 2 | 12% |
-
-**Expansion revenue (existing → higher tier):**
-- Core → Team tier: 11 accounts conversion (first full quarter of AI tier availability)
-- Team → Enterprise: 2 accounts (OKR target was 5 for full Q2 — progress)
-
----
-
-## Weakest Stage Analysis
-
-**Weakest stage:** Activation — 61% overall vs 70% benchmark.
-
-**Per-segment diagnosis:**
-- Mid-market/enterprise: already at healthy 88-100% — no action needed
-- **SMB: 52% activation is the ONE leak** — biggest absolute impact
-
-**SMB Activation Playbook (Q3):**
-1. **Onboarding checklist A/B test** (EXP-025) — expect +7pp lift
-2. **HRIS auto-import integration** — remove employee import friction
-3. **Templated 1:1 creation** — "you have teammates, let's schedule your first 1:1 now" prompt
-4. **Sales-assisted onboarding** for SMB <10 managers accounts — call within 48 hours
-5. **Content onboarding**: "Your first week with TeamFlow" email series
-
-**Expected impact:** SMB activation 52% → 65% (+13pp) → ~6 more activated SMB accounts per quarter
-
----
-
-## Growth Playbook Prioritization
-
-Ranked by (impact × ease):
-
-1. **Activation improvement (SMB)** — high impact, medium ease → **PRIMARY FOCUS**
-2. **Retention improvement (SMB 73%)** — high impact, high ease (AI tier will boost) → **SECONDARY**
-3. **Referral amplification** — medium impact, high ease (share prompts + incentives) → **TERTIARY**
-4. **Acquisition channel optimization** (more paid, SEO) — medium impact, medium ease → **LATER**
-5. **Revenue (trial → paid)** — low incremental impact already at 35%, hard → **MAINTAIN**
-
----
-
-## Overall Business Health Signal
-
-Funnel points to healthy growth trajectory with one clear bottleneck (SMB activation). AI tier launch mid-Q2 is already lifting retention but activation gap persists. Q3 focus should primarily be onboarding optimization — which also sets up AI tier adoption ceiling.
-```
-
-> **AARRR lesson:** B2B-adapted stages differ significantly from B2C. Activation ≠ signup — requires meaningful first-value event. Referral K-factor 0.23 is "healthy B2B" — would be disaster for B2C. **Per-segment analysis** crucial — blended activation 61% hides SMB 52% vs mid-market 88% radical difference. **Weakest stage ≠ lowest conversion** — it's **segment-specific bottleneck** where intervention has biggest impact. Stage playbook prioritized by impact × ease, not equal attention.
+---
+name: aarrr-metrics
+description: Pirate metrics — Acquisition, Activation, Retention, Referral, Revenue — adapted for B2B
+type: triggered
+domain: product
+owners:
+  - pm
+  - data_analyst
+gates:
+  - PM
+  - DATA_ANALYST
+tech: []
+topic: []
+triggers:
+  - "aarrr-metrics"
+  - "AARRR"
+  - "pirate metrics"
+  - "funnel metrics"
+related: []
+budget_lines: 451
+schema_version: 1
+---
+# AARRR Metrics (B2B adapted)
+
+> **Category:** Metrics  ·  **Slug:** `aarrr-metrics`
+
+## When to Use
+
+- For funnel analysis and identifying drop-off points.
+- For growth team priorities (which stage is weakest?).
+- For onboarding optimization — Activation as the key stage.
+- For product-led growth strategy.
+
+## Input
+
+| Field | Required | Description |
+|-------|:--------:|-------------|
+| Product analytics | ✅ | Event data, funnel |
+| CRM data | ✅ | Accounts, stages |
+| Usage data | ✅ | Daily/weekly activity |
+| Revenue data | ✅ | Conversion, upgrades |
+
+## Data Sources
+
+1. Product analytics (Amplitude, Mixpanel).
+2. CRM — lead → customer journey.
+3. Marketing analytics — acquisition channels.
+4. Finance — revenue per customer.
+
+### Related Skills
+
+| Skill | What we take | When to call |
+|-------|-------------|--------------|
+| `saas-metrics` | Revenue layer | For R (Revenue) stage |
+| `north-star-metric` | NSM | Usually aligned with one stage |
+| `hypothesis-template` | Per-stage tests | Per stage improvement |
+
+## Five Stages
+
+### A1 — Acquisition
+
+How users find + arrive in the product.
+
+**B2B metrics:**
+- MQLs (marketing qualified leads)
+- SQLs (sales qualified leads)
+- Trial signups
+- Demo requests
+- Direct signups (PLG)
+- By channel: organic, paid, referral, content, outbound
+
+**Channel attribution** — multi-touch attribution is better than last-touch for B2B (long sales cycle).
+
+### A2 — Activation
+
+**First meaningful moment** the user gets value. B2B adapted — not just signup.
+
+**Definition examples:**
+- Team created + ≥3 members invited
+- First integration connected
+- First production deployment
+- First report generated and shared
+- First billing setup
+
+**Activation rate** = activated users / acquired users.
+
+**Time to activate** = signup → activation timeframe.
+
+B2B-specific: activation often takes days/weeks (not minutes like B2C).
+
+### R1 — Retention
+
+Returning to get value.
+
+**B2B retention metrics:**
+- W/W active (teams, users, accounts)
+- M/M active
+- Activity depth (features used, actions/week)
+- Account-level retention curves
+
+**Leading indicator of churn** — if retention drops, churn follows.
+
+### R2 — Referral
+
+Users bringing others.
+
+**B2B referral signals:**
+- In-product invites sent
+- Invite → acceptance rate
+- External referrals (partnership, word-of-mouth)
+- Account expansion (new seats added by existing admins)
+- Case studies / logos (customer advocacy)
+
+**K-factor** = new users per existing user (typically < 1 for B2B, but can be >1 for viral tools).
+
+### R3 — Revenue
+
+Monetization.
+
+**B2B metrics:**
+- Trial → paid conversion
+- Freemium → paid conversion
+- ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account)
+- Expansion revenue (upsells, seat growth, tier upgrade)
+- Revenue per activated user
+
+## Protocol
+
+### Step 0 — Map Funnel to Product
+
+Define each stage for your product specifically. Same AARRR framework, different implementations.
+
+### Step 1 — Instrumentation
+
+Events per stage:
+- A1: `signup`, `demo_requested`, `trial_started`
+- A2: `activation_event_X` (define specific)
+- R1: `active_week` (how defined: ≥1 login or core action?)
+- R2: `invite_sent`, `referral_signup`
+- R3: `trial_to_paid`, `upsell_event`
+
+### Step 2 — Funnel Calculation
+
+```
+Acquisition →  Activation  →  Retention  →  Revenue
+   100           35            27            20
+              (35%          (77%            (74%
+           conversion)    retention)       monetization)
+   
+Referral (parallel): 12% of actives send invites, 30% accept → 4% new from referrals
+```
+
+### Step 3 — Identify Weakest Stage
+
+"One that's the weakest limits them all."
+
+Calculate stage conversion rates, compare to industry benchmarks:
+- SaaS typical acquisition → activation: 20-40%
+- Typical activation → 30-day retention: 60-80%
+
+Identify gap vs benchmark.
+
+### Step 4 — Per-Segment AARRR
+
+B2B SaaS has wildly different AARRR per segment:
+- SMB: short funnel, higher activation rate, higher churn
+- Enterprise: long sales cycle, slower activation, very low churn
+
+Per-segment funnel gives the actual picture.
+
+### Step 5 — Cohort View
+
+AARRR by cohort (by signup month):
+- Retention curves by cohort
+- Activation rates by cohort
+- Revenue per cohort
+
+Spot trends (onboarding changes? marketing shift?).
+
+### Step 6 — Stage-Specific Playbooks
+
+**If Acquisition weak:**
+- Channel mix review
+- Message-market fit testing
+- SEO / content
+- Paid channel optimization
+
+**If Activation weak:**
+- Onboarding flow
+- In-app guides
+- First-value experience
+- Personalized onboarding by role
+
+**If Retention weak:**
+- Feature adoption drives
+- Re-engagement campaigns
+- Customer health scoring
+- Sticky feature development
+
+**If Referral weak:**
+- In-product invite flow
+- Incentive programs
+- NPS → advocacy pipeline
+
+**If Revenue weak:**
+- Pricing / packaging test
+- Upsell paths
+- Trial conversion optimization
+- Expansion playbooks
+
+### Step 7 — Continuous Reviews
+
+Weekly: funnel metrics trends.
+Monthly: cohort analysis, segment view.
+Quarterly: stage-level deep dives, playbook updates.
+
+## Validation (Quality Gate)
+
+- [ ] All 5 stages defined for product
+- [ ] Events instrumented per stage
+- [ ] Funnel conversion rates computed
+- [ ] Benchmark comparison
+- [ ] Per-segment split
+- [ ] Cohort view
+- [ ] Weakest stage identified
+- [ ] Stage-specific playbook
+
+## Handoff
+
+The result is the input for:
+- **`saas-metrics`** — Revenue stage deep-dive
+- **`north-star-metric`** — NSM tied to one AARRR stage
+- **PM** → prioritize initiatives by weakest stage
+- **Data Analyst** → instrumentation requirements
+
+Format: AARRR funnel doc (numbers + charts). Via `$handoff`.
+
+## Anti-patterns
+
+| Error | Why it's bad | How to do it right |
+|-------|-------------|-------------------|
+| Activation = signup | Trivially high, meaningless | Define meaningful first value |
+| B2C-style K-factor obsession | Unrealistic B2B | K < 1 typical, focus expansion |
+| All focus on Acquisition | Leaky bucket | Fix retention first |
+| No per-segment | Hides truth | Always segment |
+| No cohorts | Survivorship bias | Cohort view always |
+| Ignore downstream stages | Acquisition looks good, churn kills | Review end-to-end |
+
+## Template
+
+```markdown
+# AARRR Funnel — Q2 2026
+
+## Stage Definitions
+- **Acquisition:** signup OR demo requested
+- **Activation:** team ≥ 3 members + 1 integration connected
+- **Retention:** active in any week N+1..N+4 after activation
+- **Referral:** invite sent in-product
+- **Revenue:** trial → paid conversion
+
+## Funnel (last 30 days)
+| Stage | Count | Conversion |
+| Acquisition | 5,000 | — |
+| Activation | 1,800 | 36% |
+| Retention (30d) | 1,200 | 67% |
+| Referral (invite) | 340 | 28% |
+| Revenue (paid) | 420 | 35% |
+
+## Per-Segment
+| Segment | Acq | Activation | Retention | Revenue |
+| SMB | 3,800 | 40% | 60% | 30% |
+| Mid-market | 1,000 | 30% | 75% | 45% |
+| Enterprise | 200 | 20% | 85% | 60% |
+
+## Weakest Stage
+Activation (36%) — below benchmark 50% for SMB.
+Playbook: onboarding checklist test (see hypothesis H-027).
+
+## Cohort Retention (Month 1, 3, 6)
+[Chart]
+```
+
+## Worked Example — TeamFlow AARRR Funnel Q2 2026
+
+```markdown
+# AARRR Funnel — TeamFlow Q2 2026 (with AI Tier Launch Impact)
+
+## Stage Definitions (B2B-adapted for TeamFlow)
+
+- **Acquisition:** Company signs up for TeamFlow (trial, demo, or direct signup)
+- **Activation:** Within 14 days of signup:
+  - Account has ≥ 3 managers set up
+  - ≥ 10 employee profiles imported
+  - ≥ 1 team created with ≥ 1 1:1 scheduled
+- **Retention:** Account has ≥ 1 active manager (any 1:1 in past 7 days) in any week post-activation
+- **Referral:** In-product invite sent by existing manager to another manager in their org
+- **Revenue:** Trial → paid conversion, OR existing tier → higher tier (e.g., Team → Enterprise)
+
+---
+
+## Full Funnel (Q2 2026, blended)
+
+```
+Acquisition (new accounts)      78 accounts
+   │    61% of signups activate
+   ▼
+Activation (within 14 days)     48 accounts
+   │    82% retain past 30 days
+   ▼
+Retention (30d active)          39 accounts
+   │    64% make in-product invites
+   ▼
+Referral (invites sent)         25 accounts (avg 3 invites each = 75 new manager invites)
+   │    35% of active accounts convert to paid
+   ▼
+Revenue (paid conversion)       17 new paid accounts
+```
+
+**Overall Acquisition → Paid conversion: 17 / 78 = 22%**
+
+---
+
+## Per-Segment Breakdown
+
+| Segment | Acquisition | Activation | Activation Rate | Retention 30d | Retention Rate | Revenue Conv | Revenue Rate |
+|---------|:-----------:|:----------:|:---------------:|:-------------:|:--------------:|:------------:|:------------:|
+| **SMB (5-99 employees)** | 58 | 30 | 52% | 22 | 73% | 9 paid | 30% |
+| **Mid-market (100-499)** | 16 | 14 | 88% | 14 | 100% | 6 paid | 43% |
+| **Enterprise (500+)** | 4 | 4 | 100% | 3 | 75%* | 2 paid | 67% |
+
+*Enterprise retention dropped due to 1 deal not closing — shown for transparency
+
+**Observations:**
+- **SMB activation gap:** 52% vs 88% mid-market — major drop-off
+- **Mid-market retention excellent:** 100% retention past 30 days
+- **Enterprise has highest revenue conversion** but smallest absolute numbers
+
+---
+
+## Stage-Level Deep Dive
+
+### Acquisition (78 accounts)
+
+| Channel | Acquisitions | % of total | Trend QoQ |
+|---------|:-----------:|:----------:|:---------:|
+| Inbound (organic web) | 34 | 44% | +12% |
+| Paid (Google / LinkedIn) | 18 | 23% | −8% |
+| Referral (existing customers) | 14 | 18% | +35% |
+| Content (blog / webinars) | 8 | 10% | +5% |
+| Outbound sales | 4 | 5% | Flat |
+
+**Insight:** Referral grew 35% QoQ — biggest leading indicator of product-market fit.
+
+### Activation (61% rate — below 70% benchmark)
+
+**Funnel decomposition — why do 30 accounts fail activation?**
+
+| Drop-off Reason | Count | % of drop-offs |
+|-----------------|:-----:|:-------------:|
+| Didn't finish manager setup (only 1-2 managers added) | 14 | 47% |
+| Didn't import employees | 8 | 27% |
+| Created team but no 1:1 scheduled | 6 | 20% |
+| Opened product but <3 logins in 14 days | 2 | 7% |
+
+**Playbook investment:**
+- Onboarding checklist test (EXP-025) aims to drive activation rate to 70%+
+- Integration auto-import from HRIS (Q3 roadmap) for employee import pain
+
+### Retention (82% at 30 days, 71% at 90 days)
+
+**Stickiness indicator:** Manager WAU/MAU
+- **Q1 baseline:** 48% (daily active managers / monthly active managers)
+- **Q2 current:** 52% (trending upward since AI tier launch)
+- **Top-quartile benchmark:** 60%+
+
+**Cohort retention curves:**
+```
+Cohort        Mo 1    Mo 3    Mo 6    Mo 12
+Q1 2025       95%     78%     70%     63%
+Q2 2025       96%     82%     75%     69%
+Q3 2025       94%     80%     73%     (pending)
+Q4 2025       97%     85%     (pending)  
+Q1 2026       95%     (pending)
+```
+
+Improving trend — product gets stickier over time.
+
+### Referral (64% of retained accounts sent invites)
+
+**Referral K-factor:** 0.23 (new accounts from referrals / existing accounts × period)
+- **Typical B2B SaaS:** K 0.1-0.3
+- **Our position:** healthy
+
+**Invite-to-signup rate:** 28% (invites sent → person signs up as manager)
+- Mostly internal growth (adding more managers within existing customer)
+- ~15% external (to another org entirely)
+
+### Revenue (35% conversion)
+
+**Trial → Paid conversion rate:** 35% overall
+
+| Trigger | Accounts | % of conversions |
+|---------|:--------:|:----------------:|
+| Manual sales outreach | 6 | 35% |
+| In-product trial expiry prompt | 5 | 29% |
+| Tier upgrade from free tier | 4 | 24% |
+| Self-serve at signup | 2 | 12% |
+
+**Expansion revenue (existing → higher tier):**
+- Core → Team tier: 11 accounts conversion (first full quarter of AI tier availability)
+- Team → Enterprise: 2 accounts (OKR target was 5 for full Q2 — progress)
+
+---
+
+## Weakest Stage Analysis
+
+**Weakest stage:** Activation — 61% overall vs 70% benchmark.
+
+**Per-segment diagnosis:**
+- Mid-market/enterprise: already at healthy 88-100% — no action needed
+- **SMB: 52% activation is the ONE leak** — biggest absolute impact
+
+**SMB Activation Playbook (Q3):**
+1. **Onboarding checklist A/B test** (EXP-025) — expect +7pp lift
+2. **HRIS auto-import integration** — remove employee import friction
+3. **Templated 1:1 creation** — "you have teammates, let's schedule your first 1:1 now" prompt
+4. **Sales-assisted onboarding** for SMB <10 managers accounts — call within 48 hours
+5. **Content onboarding**: "Your first week with TeamFlow" email series
+
+**Expected impact:** SMB activation 52% → 65% (+13pp) → ~6 more activated SMB accounts per quarter
+
+---
+
+## Growth Playbook Prioritization
+
+Ranked by (impact × ease):
+
+1. **Activation improvement (SMB)** — high impact, medium ease → **PRIMARY FOCUS**
+2. **Retention improvement (SMB 73%)** — high impact, high ease (AI tier will boost) → **SECONDARY**
+3. **Referral amplification** — medium impact, high ease (share prompts + incentives) → **TERTIARY**
+4. **Acquisition channel optimization** (more paid, SEO) — medium impact, medium ease → **LATER**
+5. **Revenue (trial → paid)** — low incremental impact already at 35%, hard → **MAINTAIN**
+
+---
+
+## Overall Business Health Signal
+
+Funnel points to healthy growth trajectory with one clear bottleneck (SMB activation). AI tier launch mid-Q2 is already lifting retention but activation gap persists. Q3 focus should primarily be onboarding optimization — which also sets up AI tier adoption ceiling.
+```
+
+> **AARRR lesson:** B2B-adapted stages differ significantly from B2C. Activation ≠ signup — requires meaningful first-value event. Referral K-factor 0.23 is "healthy B2B" — would be disaster for B2C. **Per-segment analysis** crucial — blended activation 61% hides SMB 52% vs mid-market 88% radical difference. **Weakest stage ≠ lowest conversion** — it's **segment-specific bottleneck** where intervention has biggest impact. Stage playbook prioritized by impact × ease, not equal attention.