@oriro/orirocli 0.1.11 → 0.1.12

package/skills/science/sci-statistics/SKILL.md

@@ -1,249 +1,249 @@
----
-watermark: ORIRO
-name: sci-statistics
-provider: ORIRO.ai
-copyright: Copyright (c) 2026 ORIRO.ai
-description: >
-  Statistics and data analysis — probability, distributions, hypothesis testing,
-  regression, study design, and interpreting results. Activate for questions
-  about data analysis, p-values, confidence intervals, statistical significance,
-  sample size, surveys, A/B testing, correlations, or any statistics question.
-  Sources: OpenStax Statistics (CC-BY), Khan Academy Statistics, MIT OCW
-  Statistics for Applications, ASA statistical guidelines.
----
-
-# Statistics
-
-## Descriptive statistics
-
-### Measures of center
-
-**Mean:** Sum of all values ÷ number of values. Sensitive to outliers.
-**Median:** Middle value when sorted. Robust to outliers. Better for skewed data.
-**Mode:** Most frequent value. Useful for categorical data.
-
-When to use which:
-
-- Symmetric distribution: mean ≈ median — use either.
-- Skewed distribution: median more representative than mean.
-- Example: Income distribution is right-skewed. Median income is more informative than mean.
-
-### Measures of spread
-
-**Range:** Max - Min. Sensitive to outliers.
-**Variance:** Average squared deviation from the mean.
-**Standard deviation (SD):** Square root of variance. Same units as the data.
-**IQR (Interquartile Range):** Q3 - Q1. Middle 50% of data. Robust to outliers.
-
-### The 68-95-99.7 rule (normal distribution)
-
-In a normally distributed dataset:
-
-- 68% of data falls within ±1 SD of the mean
-- 95% within ±2 SD
-- 99.7% within ±3 SD
-
-**Outlier identification:** Values more than 1.5×IQR beyond Q1 or Q3 (box plot method). Or > 3 SD from mean.
-
----
-
-## Probability fundamentals
-
-### Basic rules
-
-P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
-P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A) — conditional probability
-If A and B are independent: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
-
-### Bayes' theorem
-
-P(A|B) = [P(B|A) × P(A)] / P(B)
-
-**Medical testing example:**
-
-- Disease prevalence: 1% (P(disease) = 0.01)
-- Test sensitivity: 99% (P(positive|disease) = 0.99)
-- Test specificity: 95% (P(negative|no disease) = 0.95)
-- P(positive|no disease) = 0.05
-
-P(disease|positive test) = (0.99 × 0.01) / [(0.99 × 0.01) + (0.05 × 0.99)]
-= 0.0099 / (0.0099 + 0.0495) = 0.0099 / 0.0594 ≈ 16.7%
-
-Even with a positive test, only 16.7% chance of having the disease.
-This is why mass screening of low-prevalence conditions generates mostly false positives.
-
----
-
-## Statistical inference
-
-### Sampling
-
-**Population:** The entire group you want to know about.
-**Sample:** The subset you actually measure.
-**Random sampling:** Every member of population has equal probability of selection.
-**Sample size:** Larger = more precise estimates; diminishing returns.
-
-**Sampling errors (types of bias):**
-
-- Selection bias: sample not representative of population
-- Non-response bias: non-respondents differ from respondents
-- Volunteer bias: volunteers differ from non-volunteers
-
-### Confidence intervals
-
-A 95% confidence interval means: if we repeated the study 100 times, 95 of those
-intervals would contain the true population parameter.
-
-**It does NOT mean:** There's a 95% probability the true value is in this specific interval.
-
-**Interpreting width:**
-Wide CI = high uncertainty (small sample, high variability)
-Narrow CI = more precision (large sample, low variability)
-
-### Hypothesis testing
-
-**Null hypothesis (H₀):** The default assumption (usually "no effect" or "no difference").
-**Alternative hypothesis (H₁):** What you're trying to show evidence for.
-
-**P-value:** Probability of observing results at least as extreme as yours, IF the null hypothesis were true.
-
-**Common misinterpretation:** p-value is NOT the probability that the null hypothesis is true.
-
-**Significance level (α):** Threshold for rejecting null hypothesis.
-Commonly α = 0.05 (5% false positive rate).
-High-stakes fields use α = 0.01 or 0.001.
-
-**Statistical power:** Probability of detecting a real effect if one exists.
-Convention: power ≥ 0.80 (80% chance of detecting true effect).
-Low power → high false negative rate.
-
-**Type I error (α):** Reject null when it's actually true. (False positive)
-**Type II error (β):** Fail to reject null when it's actually false. (False negative)
-
-### What p < 0.05 actually means
-
-Statistical significance ≠ practical significance.
-With a large enough sample, even trivially small effects are "statistically significant."
-
-**Always ask:** Effect size — how large is the difference in practical terms?
-**Cohen's d:** Effect size for means comparison.
-d = 0.2 (small), 0.5 (medium), 0.8 (large)
-
----
-
-## Common statistical tests
-
-### Choosing the right test
-
-| Data type              | Two groups             | Multiple groups | Correlation |
-| ---------------------- | ---------------------- | --------------- | ----------- |
-| Continuous, normal     | t-test                 | ANOVA           | Pearson r   |
-| Continuous, non-normal | Mann-Whitney U         | Kruskal-Wallis  | Spearman ρ  |
-| Categorical            | Chi-square             | Chi-square      | Chi-square  |
-| Proportions            | Z-test for proportions | —               | —           |
-
-### t-test (compare two group means)
-
-One-sample: Does sample mean differ from a known value?
-Independent samples: Do two groups differ from each other?
-Paired: Does the same group change before vs. after?
-
-### Chi-square test (categorical data)
-
-Tests if observed frequencies differ from expected.
-Or tests independence between two categorical variables.
-
-### ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)
-
-Compares means of three or more groups simultaneously.
-If significant: post-hoc tests (Tukey, Bonferroni) identify which groups differ.
-
-### Correlation
-
-**Pearson r:** Linear relationship between two continuous variables.
-r = +1: perfect positive correlation
-r = 0: no linear relationship
-r = -1: perfect negative correlation
-
-**Correlation ≠ causation.** Classic error in statistics communication.
-Both could be caused by a third variable (confounding).
-Spurious correlations: ice cream sales and drowning deaths (both caused by summer).
-
----
-
-## Regression
-
-### Simple linear regression
-
-y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
-y = outcome (dependent variable)
-x = predictor (independent variable)
-β₁ = slope (change in y per unit change in x)
-β₀ = intercept
-
-**R²:** Proportion of variance in y explained by x.
-R² = 0.70 means: 70% of variation in the outcome is explained by the model.
-
-### Multiple regression
-
-y = β₀ + β₁x₁ + β₂x₂ + ... + βₙxₙ + ε
-Each β interpreted as effect of that variable, holding all others constant.
-Critical for controlling confounders.
-
-### Assumptions of linear regression
-
-1. Linearity: relationship between x and y is linear
-2. Independence: observations are independent
-3. Homoscedasticity: variance of residuals is constant
-4. Normality of residuals: residuals approximately normally distributed
-5. No perfect multicollinearity
-
----
-
-## Study design
-
-### Observational studies
-
-**Cross-sectional:** Snapshot at one point in time. Good for prevalence.
-**Case-control:** Compare people with/without outcome; look backward at exposures.
-**Cohort:** Follow people over time; compare those with/without exposure.
-Prospective: follow forward. Retrospective: look at historical records.
-
-### Experimental studies
-
-**Randomized controlled trial (RCT):** Gold standard.
-Random assignment to treatment/control eliminates selection bias.
-
-**Blinding:**
-Single-blind: participants don't know which group.
-Double-blind: participants AND investigators don't know.
-Reduces performance bias, detection bias, and placebo effects.
-
-### A/B Testing (web analytics context)
-
-Randomize users to version A or version B.
-Collect enough data to reach statistical significance.
-
-**Common errors:**
-
-- Peeking: stopping test early when you see significance (inflates false positives)
-- Multiple testing: testing many variations simultaneously inflates false positive rate
-- Novelty effect: new design performs well initially but regresses
-
-**Minimum sample size:**
-n ≥ (Z*α/2 + Z*β)² × 2σ² / Δ²
-For binary outcomes: use online calculators with power = 0.80, α = 0.05.
-
----
-
-## Simpson's Paradox
-
-A trend appears in subgroups but disappears or reverses when combined.
-Example: Treatment A has better survival rates in both severe and mild cases,
-but Treatment B has a better overall survival rate because more mild cases got Treatment B.
-
-**Solution:** Always stratify by relevant confounders. Never trust aggregated data alone.
-
-Sources: OpenStax Statistics (CC-BY, openstax.org), Khan Academy Statistics (CC-BY-NC-SA),
-MIT OCW 18.650 Statistics for Applications, American Statistical Association
-guidelines on p-values (2016 statement)
+---
+watermark: ORIRO
+name: sci-statistics
+provider: ORIRO.ai
+copyright: Copyright (c) 2026 ORIRO.ai
+description: >
+  Statistics and data analysis — probability, distributions, hypothesis testing,
+  regression, study design, and interpreting results. Activate for questions
+  about data analysis, p-values, confidence intervals, statistical significance,
+  sample size, surveys, A/B testing, correlations, or any statistics question.
+  Sources: OpenStax Statistics (CC-BY), Khan Academy Statistics, MIT OCW
+  Statistics for Applications, ASA statistical guidelines.
+---
+
+# Statistics
+
+## Descriptive statistics
+
+### Measures of center
+
+**Mean:** Sum of all values ÷ number of values. Sensitive to outliers.
+**Median:** Middle value when sorted. Robust to outliers. Better for skewed data.
+**Mode:** Most frequent value. Useful for categorical data.
+
+When to use which:
+
+- Symmetric distribution: mean ≈ median — use either.
+- Skewed distribution: median more representative than mean.
+- Example: Income distribution is right-skewed. Median income is more informative than mean.
+
+### Measures of spread
+
+**Range:** Max - Min. Sensitive to outliers.
+**Variance:** Average squared deviation from the mean.
+**Standard deviation (SD):** Square root of variance. Same units as the data.
+**IQR (Interquartile Range):** Q3 - Q1. Middle 50% of data. Robust to outliers.
+
+### The 68-95-99.7 rule (normal distribution)
+
+In a normally distributed dataset:
+
+- 68% of data falls within ±1 SD of the mean
+- 95% within ±2 SD
+- 99.7% within ±3 SD
+
+**Outlier identification:** Values more than 1.5×IQR beyond Q1 or Q3 (box plot method). Or > 3 SD from mean.
+
+---
+
+## Probability fundamentals
+
+### Basic rules
+
+P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
+P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A) — conditional probability
+If A and B are independent: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
+
+### Bayes' theorem
+
+P(A|B) = [P(B|A) × P(A)] / P(B)
+
+**Medical testing example:**
+
+- Disease prevalence: 1% (P(disease) = 0.01)
+- Test sensitivity: 99% (P(positive|disease) = 0.99)
+- Test specificity: 95% (P(negative|no disease) = 0.95)
+- P(positive|no disease) = 0.05
+
+P(disease|positive test) = (0.99 × 0.01) / [(0.99 × 0.01) + (0.05 × 0.99)]
+= 0.0099 / (0.0099 + 0.0495) = 0.0099 / 0.0594 ≈ 16.7%
+
+Even with a positive test, only 16.7% chance of having the disease.
+This is why mass screening of low-prevalence conditions generates mostly false positives.
+
+---
+
+## Statistical inference
+
+### Sampling
+
+**Population:** The entire group you want to know about.
+**Sample:** The subset you actually measure.
+**Random sampling:** Every member of population has equal probability of selection.
+**Sample size:** Larger = more precise estimates; diminishing returns.
+
+**Sampling errors (types of bias):**
+
+- Selection bias: sample not representative of population
+- Non-response bias: non-respondents differ from respondents
+- Volunteer bias: volunteers differ from non-volunteers
+
+### Confidence intervals
+
+A 95% confidence interval means: if we repeated the study 100 times, 95 of those
+intervals would contain the true population parameter.
+
+**It does NOT mean:** There's a 95% probability the true value is in this specific interval.
+
+**Interpreting width:**
+Wide CI = high uncertainty (small sample, high variability)
+Narrow CI = more precision (large sample, low variability)
+
+### Hypothesis testing
+
+**Null hypothesis (H₀):** The default assumption (usually "no effect" or "no difference").
+**Alternative hypothesis (H₁):** What you're trying to show evidence for.
+
+**P-value:** Probability of observing results at least as extreme as yours, IF the null hypothesis were true.
+
+**Common misinterpretation:** p-value is NOT the probability that the null hypothesis is true.
+
+**Significance level (α):** Threshold for rejecting null hypothesis.
+Commonly α = 0.05 (5% false positive rate).
+High-stakes fields use α = 0.01 or 0.001.
+
+**Statistical power:** Probability of detecting a real effect if one exists.
+Convention: power ≥ 0.80 (80% chance of detecting true effect).
+Low power → high false negative rate.
+
+**Type I error (α):** Reject null when it's actually true. (False positive)
+**Type II error (β):** Fail to reject null when it's actually false. (False negative)
+
+### What p < 0.05 actually means
+
+Statistical significance ≠ practical significance.
+With a large enough sample, even trivially small effects are "statistically significant."
+
+**Always ask:** Effect size — how large is the difference in practical terms?
+**Cohen's d:** Effect size for means comparison.
+d = 0.2 (small), 0.5 (medium), 0.8 (large)
+
+---
+
+## Common statistical tests
+
+### Choosing the right test
+
+| Data type              | Two groups             | Multiple groups | Correlation |
+| ---------------------- | ---------------------- | --------------- | ----------- |
+| Continuous, normal     | t-test                 | ANOVA           | Pearson r   |
+| Continuous, non-normal | Mann-Whitney U         | Kruskal-Wallis  | Spearman ρ  |
+| Categorical            | Chi-square             | Chi-square      | Chi-square  |
+| Proportions            | Z-test for proportions | —               | —           |
+
+### t-test (compare two group means)
+
+One-sample: Does sample mean differ from a known value?
+Independent samples: Do two groups differ from each other?
+Paired: Does the same group change before vs. after?
+
+### Chi-square test (categorical data)
+
+Tests if observed frequencies differ from expected.
+Or tests independence between two categorical variables.
+
+### ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)
+
+Compares means of three or more groups simultaneously.
+If significant: post-hoc tests (Tukey, Bonferroni) identify which groups differ.
+
+### Correlation
+
+**Pearson r:** Linear relationship between two continuous variables.
+r = +1: perfect positive correlation
+r = 0: no linear relationship
+r = -1: perfect negative correlation
+
+**Correlation ≠ causation.** Classic error in statistics communication.
+Both could be caused by a third variable (confounding).
+Spurious correlations: ice cream sales and drowning deaths (both caused by summer).
+
+---
+
+## Regression
+
+### Simple linear regression
+
+y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
+y = outcome (dependent variable)
+x = predictor (independent variable)
+β₁ = slope (change in y per unit change in x)
+β₀ = intercept
+
+**R²:** Proportion of variance in y explained by x.
+R² = 0.70 means: 70% of variation in the outcome is explained by the model.
+
+### Multiple regression
+
+y = β₀ + β₁x₁ + β₂x₂ + ... + βₙxₙ + ε
+Each β interpreted as effect of that variable, holding all others constant.
+Critical for controlling confounders.
+
+### Assumptions of linear regression
+
+1. Linearity: relationship between x and y is linear
+2. Independence: observations are independent
+3. Homoscedasticity: variance of residuals is constant
+4. Normality of residuals: residuals approximately normally distributed
+5. No perfect multicollinearity
+
+---
+
+## Study design
+
+### Observational studies
+
+**Cross-sectional:** Snapshot at one point in time. Good for prevalence.
+**Case-control:** Compare people with/without outcome; look backward at exposures.
+**Cohort:** Follow people over time; compare those with/without exposure.
+Prospective: follow forward. Retrospective: look at historical records.
+
+### Experimental studies
+
+**Randomized controlled trial (RCT):** Gold standard.
+Random assignment to treatment/control eliminates selection bias.
+
+**Blinding:**
+Single-blind: participants don't know which group.
+Double-blind: participants AND investigators don't know.
+Reduces performance bias, detection bias, and placebo effects.
+
+### A/B Testing (web analytics context)
+
+Randomize users to version A or version B.
+Collect enough data to reach statistical significance.
+
+**Common errors:**
+
+- Peeking: stopping test early when you see significance (inflates false positives)
+- Multiple testing: testing many variations simultaneously inflates false positive rate
+- Novelty effect: new design performs well initially but regresses
+
+**Minimum sample size:**
+n ≥ (Z*α/2 + Z*β)² × 2σ² / Δ²
+For binary outcomes: use online calculators with power = 0.80, α = 0.05.
+
+---
+
+## Simpson's Paradox
+
+A trend appears in subgroups but disappears or reverses when combined.
+Example: Treatment A has better survival rates in both severe and mild cases,
+but Treatment B has a better overall survival rate because more mild cases got Treatment B.
+
+**Solution:** Always stratify by relevant confounders. Never trust aggregated data alone.
+
+Sources: OpenStax Statistics (CC-BY, openstax.org), Khan Academy Statistics (CC-BY-NC-SA),
+MIT OCW 18.650 Statistics for Applications, American Statistical Association
+guidelines on p-values (2016 statement)