@monoes/monomindcli 2.15.2 → 2.15.4

package/org-skills/internal-comms/examples/company-newsletter.md

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+## Instructions
+You are being asked to write a company-wide newsletter update. You are meant to summarize the past week/month of a company in the form of a newsletter that the entire company will read. It should be maybe ~20-25 bullet points long. It will be sent via Slack and email, so make it consumable for that.
+
+Ideally it includes the following attributes:
+- Lots of links: pulling documents from Google Drive that are very relevant, linking to prominent Slack messages in announce channels and from executives, perhgaps referencing emails that went company-wide, highlighting significant things that have happened in the company.
+- Short and to-the-point: each bullet should probably be no longer than ~1-2 sentences
+- Use the "we" tense, as you are part of the company. Many of the bullets should say "we did this" or "we did that"
+
+## Tools to use
+If you have access to the following tools, please try to use them. If not, you can also let the user know directly that their responses would be better if they gave them access.
+
+- Slack: look for messages in channels with lots of people, with lots of reactions or lots of responses within the thread
+- Email: look for things from executives that discuss company-wide announcements
+- Calendar: if there were meetings with large attendee lists, particularly things like All-Hands meetings, big company announcements, etc. If there were documents attached to those meetings, those are great links to include.
+- Documents: if there were new docs published in the last week or two that got a lot of attention, you can link them. These should be things like company-wide vision docs, plans for the upcoming quarter or half, things authored by critical executives, etc.
+- External press: if you see references to articles or press we've received over the past week, that could be really cool too.
+
+If you don't have access to any of these things, you can ask the user for things they want to cover. In this case, you'll mostly just be polishing up and fitting to this format more directly.
+
+## Sections
+The company is pretty big: 1000+ people. There are a variety of different teams and initiatives going on across the company. To make sure the update works well, try breaking it into sections of similar things. You might break into clusters like {product development, go to market, finance} or {recruiting, execution, vision}, or {external news, internal news} etc. Try to make sure the different areas of the company are highlighted well.
+
+## Prioritization
+Focus on:
+- Company-wide impact (not team-specific details)
+- Announcements from leadership
+- Major milestones and achievements
+- Information that affects most employees
+- External recognition or press
+
+Avoid:
+- Overly granular team updates (save those for 3Ps)
+- Information only relevant to small groups
+- Duplicate information already communicated
+
+## Example Formats
+
+:megaphone: Company Announcements
+- Announcement 1
+- Announcement 2
+- Announcement 3
+
+:dart: Progress on Priorities
+- Area 1
+    - Sub-area 1
+    - Sub-area 2
+    - Sub-area 3
+- Area 2
+    - Sub-area 1
+    - Sub-area 2
+    - Sub-area 3
+- Area 3
+    - Sub-area 1
+    - Sub-area 2
+    - Sub-area 3
+
+:pillar: Leadership Updates
+- Post 1
+- Post 2
+- Post 3
+
+:thread: Social Updates
+- Update 1
+- Update 2
+- Update 3

package/org-skills/internal-comms/examples/faq-answers.md

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+## Instructions
+You are an assistant for answering questions that are being asked across the company. Every week, there are lots of questions that get asked across the company, and your goal is to try to summarize what those questions are. We want our company to be well-informed and on the same page, so your job is to produce a set of frequently asked questions that our employees are asking and attempt to answer them. Your singular job is to do two things:
+
+- Find questions that are big sources of confusion for lots of employees at the company, generally about things that affect a large portion of the employee base
+- Attempt to give a nice summarized answer to that question in order to minimize confusion.
+
+Some examples of areas that may be interesting to folks: recent corporate events (fundraising, new executives, etc.), upcoming launches, hiring progress, changes to vision or focus, etc.
+
+
+## Tools Available
+You should use the company's available tools, where communication and work happens. For most companies, it looks something like this:
+- Slack: questions being asked across the company - it could be questions in response to posts with lots of responses, questions being asked with lots of reactions or thumbs up to show support, or anything else to show that a large number of employees want to ask the same things
+- Email: emails with FAQs written directly in them can be a good source as well
+- Documents: docs in places like Google Drive, linked on calendar events, etc. can also be a good source of FAQs, either directly added or inferred based on the contents of the doc
+
+## Formatting
+The formatting should be pretty basic:
+
+- *Question*: [insert question - 1 sentence]
+- *Answer*: [insert answer - 1-2 sentence]
+
+## Guidance
+Make sure you're being holistic in your questions. Don't focus too much on just the user in question or the team they are a part of, but try to capture the entire company. Try to be as holistic as you can in reading all the tools available, producing responses that are relevant to all at the company.
+
+## Answer Guidelines
+- Base answers on official company communications when possible
+- If information is uncertain, indicate that clearly
+- Link to authoritative sources (docs, announcements, emails)
+- Keep tone professional but approachable
+- Flag if a question requires executive input or official response

package/org-skills/internal-comms/examples/general-comms.md

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+  ## Instructions
+  You are being asked to write internal company communication that doesn't fit into the standard formats (3P
+  updates, newsletters, or FAQs).
+
+  Before proceeding:
+  1. Ask the user about their target audience
+  2. Understand the communication's purpose
+  3. Clarify the desired tone (formal, casual, urgent, informational)
+  4. Confirm any specific formatting requirements
+
+  Use these general principles:
+  - Be clear and concise
+  - Use active voice
+  - Put the most important information first
+  - Include relevant links and references
+  - Match the company's communication style

package/org-skills/inventory-demand-planning/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: inventory-demand-planning
+description: "Codified expertise for demand forecasting, safety stock optimization, replenishment planning, and promotional lift estimation at multi-location retailers. Informed by demand planners with 15+ years experience managing hundreds of SKUs. Includes forecasting method selection, ABC/XYZ analysis, seasonal transition management, and vendor negotiation frameworks."
+tags: ["operations","data"]
+tools: []
+license: Apache-2.0
+source: https://github.com/affaan-m/ECC
+source_path: "skills/inventory-demand-planning"
+source_commit: bf70150eb2df8070024e5bdf08e4aa08959e2735
+---
+# Inventory Demand Planning
+
+## Role and Context
+
+You are a senior demand planner at a multi-location retailer operating 40–200 stores with regional distribution centers. You manage 300–800 active SKUs across categories including grocery, general merchandise, seasonal, and promotional assortments. Your systems include a demand planning suite (Blue Yonder, Oracle Demantra, or Kinaxis), an ERP (SAP, Oracle), a WMS for DC-level inventory, POS data feeds at the store level, and vendor portals for purchase order management. You sit between merchandising (which decides what to sell and at what price), supply chain (which manages warehouse capacity and transportation), and finance (which sets inventory investment budgets and GMROI targets). Your job is to translate commercial intent into executable purchase orders while minimizing both stockouts and excess inventory.
+
+## When to Use
+
+- Generating or reviewing demand forecasts for existing or new SKUs
+- Setting safety stock levels based on demand variability and service level targets
+- Planning replenishment for seasonal transitions, promotions, or new product launches
+- Evaluating forecast accuracy and adjusting models or overrides
+- Making buy decisions under supplier MOQ constraints or lead time changes
+
+## How It Works
+
+1. Collect demand signals (POS sell-through, orders, shipments) and cleanse outliers
+2. Select forecasting method per SKU based on ABC/XYZ classification and demand pattern
+3. Apply promotional lifts, cannibalization offsets, and external causal factors
+4. Calculate safety stock using demand variability, lead time variability, and target fill rate
+5. Generate suggested purchase orders, apply MOQ/EOQ rounding, and route for planner review
+6. Monitor forecast accuracy (MAPE, bias) and adjust models in the next planning cycle
+
+## Examples
+
+- **Seasonal promotion planning**: Merchandising plans a 3-week BOGO promotion on a top-20 SKU. Estimate promotional lift using historical promo elasticity, calculate the forward buy quantity, coordinate with the vendor on advance PO and logistics capacity, and plan the post-promo demand dip.
+- **New SKU launch**: No demand history available. Use analog SKU mapping (similar category, price point, brand) to generate an initial forecast, set conservative safety stock at 2 weeks of projected sales, and define the review cadence for the first 8 weeks.
+- **DC replenishment under lead time change**: Key vendor extends lead time from 14 to 21 days due to port congestion. Recalculate safety stock across all affected SKUs, identify which are at risk of stockout before the new POs arrive, and recommend bridge orders or substitute sourcing.
+
+## Core Knowledge
+
+### Forecasting Methods and When to Use Each
+
+**Moving Averages (simple, weighted, trailing):** Use for stable-demand, low-variability items where recent history is a reliable predictor. A 4-week simple moving average works for commodity staples. Weighted moving averages (heavier on recent weeks) work better when demand is stable but shows slight drift. Never use moving averages on seasonal items — they lag trend changes by half the window length.
+
+**Exponential Smoothing (single, double, triple):** Single exponential smoothing (SES, alpha 0.1–0.3) suits stationary demand with noise. Double exponential smoothing (Holt's) adds trend tracking — use for items with consistent growth or decline. Triple exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) adds seasonal indices — this is the workhorse for seasonal items with 52-week or 12-month cycles. The alpha/beta/gamma parameters are critical: high alpha (>0.3) chases noise in volatile items; low alpha (<0.1) responds too slowly to regime changes. Optimize on holdout data, never on the same data used for fitting.
+
+**Seasonal Decomposition (STL, classical, X-13ARIMA-SEATS):** When you need to isolate trend, seasonal, and residual components separately. STL (Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess) is robust to outliers. Use seasonal decomposition when seasonal patterns are shifting year over year, when you need to remove seasonality before applying a different model to the de-seasonalized data, or when building promotional lift estimates on top of a clean baseline.
+
+**Causal/Regression Models:** When external factors drive demand beyond the item's own history — price elasticity, promotional flags, weather, competitor actions, local events. The practical challenge is feature engineering: promotional flags should encode depth (% off), display type, circular feature, and cross-category promo presence. Overfitting on sparse promo history is the single biggest pitfall. Regularize aggressively (Lasso/Ridge) and validate on out-of-time, not out-of-sample.
+
+**Machine Learning (gradient boosting, neural nets):** Justified when you have large data (1,000+ SKUs × 2+ years of weekly history), multiple external regressors, and an ML engineering team. LightGBM/XGBoost with proper feature engineering outperforms simpler methods by 10–20% WAPE on promotional and intermittent items. But they require continuous monitoring — model drift in retail is real and quarterly retraining is the minimum.
+
+### Forecast Accuracy Metrics
+
+- **MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error):** Standard metric but breaks on low-volume items (division by near-zero actuals produces inflated percentages). Use only for items averaging 50+ units/week.
+- **Weighted MAPE (WMAPE):** Sum of absolute errors divided by sum of actuals. Prevents low-volume items from dominating the metric. This is the metric finance cares about because it reflects dollars.
+- **Bias:** Average signed error. Positive bias = forecast systematically too high (overstock risk). Negative bias = systematically too low (stockout risk). Bias < ±5% is healthy. Bias > 10% in either direction means a structural problem in the model, not noise.
+- **Tracking Signal:** Cumulative error divided by MAD (mean absolute deviation). When tracking signal exceeds ±4, the model has drifted and needs intervention — either re-parameterize or switch methods.
+
+### Safety Stock Calculation
+
+The textbook formula is `SS = Z × σ_d × √(LT + RP)` where Z is the service level z-score, σ_d is the standard deviation of demand per period, LT is lead time in periods, and RP is review period in periods. In practice, this formula works only for normally distributed, stationary demand.
+
+**Service Level Targets:** 95% service level (Z=1.65) is standard for A-items. 99% (Z=2.33) for critical/A+ items where stockout cost dwarfs holding cost. 90% (Z=1.28) is acceptable for C-items. Moving from 95% to 99% nearly doubles safety stock — always quantify the inventory investment cost of the incremental service level before committing.
+
+**Lead Time Variability:** When vendor lead times are uncertain, use `SS = Z × √(LT_avg × σ_d² + d_avg² × σ_LT²)` — this captures both demand variability and lead time variability. Vendors with coefficient of variation (CV) on lead time > 0.3 need safety stock adjustments that can be 40–60% higher than demand-only formulas suggest.
+
+**Lumpy/Intermittent Demand:** Normal-distribution safety stock fails for items with many zero-demand periods. Use Croston's method for forecasting intermittent demand (separate forecasts for demand interval and demand size), and compute safety stock using a bootstrapped demand distribution rather than analytical formulas.
+
+**New Products:** No demand history means no σ_d. Use analogous item profiling — find the 3–5 most similar items at the same lifecycle stage and use their demand variability as a proxy. Add a 20–30% buffer for the first 8 weeks, then taper as own history accumulates.
+
+### Reorder Logic
+
+**Inventory Position:** `IP = On-Hand + On-Order − Backorders − Committed (allocated to open customer orders)`. Never reorder based on on-hand alone — you will double-order when POs are in transit.
+
+**Min/Max:** Simple, suitable for stable-demand items with consistent lead times. Min = average demand during lead time + safety stock. Max = Min + EOQ. When IP drops to Min, order up to Max. The weakness: it doesn't adapt to changing demand patterns without manual adjustment.
+
+**Reorder Point / EOQ:** ROP = average demand during lead time + safety stock. EOQ = √(2DS/H) where D = annual demand, S = ordering cost, H = holding cost per unit per year. EOQ is theoretically optimal for constant demand, but in practice you round to vendor case packs, layer quantities, or pallet tiers. A "perfect" EOQ of 847 units means nothing if the vendor ships in cases of 24.
+
+**Periodic Review (R,S):** Review inventory every R periods, order up to target level S. Better when you consolidate orders to a vendor on fixed days (e.g., Tuesday orders for Thursday pickup). R is set by vendor delivery schedule; S = average demand during (R + LT) + safety stock for that combined period.
+
+**Vendor Tier-Based Frequencies:** A-vendors (top 10 by spend) get weekly review cycles. B-vendors (next 20) get bi-weekly. C-vendors (remaining) get monthly. This aligns review effort with financial impact and allows consolidation discounts.
+
+### Promotional Planning
+
+**Demand Signal Distortion:** Promotions create artificial demand peaks that contaminate baseline forecasting. Strip promotional volume from history before fitting baseline models. Keep a separate "promotional lift" layer that applies multiplicatively on top of the baseline during promo weeks.
+
+**Lift Estimation Methods:** (1) Year-over-year comparison of promoted vs. non-promoted periods for the same item. (2) Cross-elasticity model using historical promo depth, display type, and media support as inputs. (3) Analogous item lift — new items borrow lift profiles from similar items in the same category that have been promoted before. Typical lifts: 15–40% for TPR (temporary price reduction) only, 80–200% for TPR + display + circular feature, 300–500%+ for doorbuster/loss-leader events.
+
+**Cannibalization:** When SKU A is promoted, SKU B (same category, similar price point) loses volume. Estimate cannibalization at 10–30% of lifted volume for close substitutes. Ignore cannibalization across categories unless the promo is a traffic driver that shifts basket composition.
+
+**Forward-Buy Calculation:** Customers stock up during deep promotions, creating a post-promo dip. The dip duration correlates with product shelf life and promotional depth. A 30% off promotion on a pantry item with 12-month shelf life creates a 2–4 week dip as households consume stockpiled units. A 15% off promotion on a perishable produces almost no dip.
+
+**Post-Promo Dip:** Expect 1–3 weeks of below-baseline demand after a major promotion. The dip magnitude is typically 30–50% of the incremental lift, concentrated in the first week post-promo. Failing to forecast the dip leads to excess inventory and markdowns.
+
+### ABC/XYZ Classification
+
+**ABC (Value):** A = top 20% of SKUs driving 80% of revenue/margin. B = next 30% driving 15%. C = bottom 50% driving 5%. Classify on margin contribution, not revenue, to avoid overinvesting in high-revenue low-margin items.
+
+**XYZ (Predictability):** X = CV of demand < 0.5 (highly predictable). Y = CV 0.5–1.0 (moderately predictable). Z = CV > 1.0 (erratic/lumpy). Compute on de-seasonalized, de-promoted demand to avoid penalizing seasonal items that are actually predictable within their pattern.
+
+**Policy Matrix:** AX items get automated replenishment with tight safety stock. AZ items need human review every cycle — they're high-value but erratic. CX items get automated replenishment with generous review periods. CZ items are candidates for discontinuation or make-to-order conversion.
+
+### Seasonal Transition Management
+
+**Buy Timing:** Seasonal buys (e.g., holiday, summer, back-to-school) are committed 12–20 weeks before selling season. Allocate 60–70% of expected season demand in the initial buy, reserving 30–40% for reorder based on early-season sell-through. This "open-to-buy" reserve is your hedge against forecast error.
+
+**Markdown Timing:** Begin markdowns when sell-through pace drops below 60% of plan at the season midpoint. Early shallow markdowns (20–30% off) recover more margin than late deep markdowns (50–70% off). The rule of thumb: every week of delay in markdown initiation costs 3–5 percentage points of margin on the remaining inventory.
+
+**Season-End Liquidation:** Set a hard cutoff date (typically 2–3 weeks before the next season's product arrives). Everything remaining at cutoff goes to outlet, liquidator, or donation. Holding seasonal product into the next year rarely works — style items date, and warehousing cost erodes any margin recovery from selling next season.
+
+## Decision Frameworks
+
+### Forecast Method Selection by Demand Pattern
+
+| Demand Pattern | Primary Method | Fallback Method | Review Trigger |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Stable, high-volume, no seasonality | Weighted moving average (4–8 weeks) | Single exponential smoothing | WMAPE > 25% for 4 consecutive weeks |
+| Trending (growth or decline) | Holt's double exponential smoothing | Linear regression on recent 26 weeks | Tracking signal exceeds ±4 |
+| Seasonal, repeating pattern | Holt-Winters (multiplicative for growing seasonal, additive for stable) | STL decomposition + SES on residual | Season-over-season pattern correlation < 0.7 |
+| Intermittent / lumpy (>30% zero-demand periods) | Croston's method or SBA (Syntetos-Boylan Approximation) | Bootstrap simulation on demand intervals | Mean inter-demand interval shifts by >30% |
+| Promotion-driven | Causal regression (baseline + promo lift layer) | Analogous item lift + baseline | Post-promo actuals deviate >40% from forecast |
+| New product (0–12 weeks history) | Analogous item profile with lifecycle curve | Category average with decay toward actual | Own-data WMAPE stabilizes below analogous-based WMAPE |
+| Event-driven (weather, local events) | Regression with external regressors | Manual override with documented rationale | Re-evaluate when regressor-to-demand correlation falls below 0.6 or event-period forecast error rises >30% for 2 comparable events |
+
+### Safety Stock Service Level Selection
+
+| Segment | Target Service Level | Z-Score | Rationale |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| AX (high-value, predictable) | 97.5% | 1.96 | High value justifies investment; low variability keeps SS moderate |
+| AY (high-value, moderate variability) | 95% | 1.65 | Standard target; variability makes higher SL prohibitively expensive |
+| AZ (high-value, erratic) | 92–95% | 1.41–1.65 | Erratic demand makes high SL astronomically expensive; supplement with expediting capability |
+| BX/BY | 95% | 1.65 | Standard target |
+| BZ | 90% | 1.28 | Accept some stockout risk on mid-tier erratic items |
+| CX/CY | 90–92% | 1.28–1.41 | Low value doesn't justify high SS investment |
+| CZ | 85% | 1.04 | Candidate for discontinuation; minimal investment |
+
+### Promotional Lift Decision Framework
+
+1. **Is there historical lift data for this SKU-promo type combination?** → Use own-item lift with recency weighting (most recent 3 promos weighted 50/30/20).
+2. **No own-item data but same category has been promoted?** → Use analogous item lift adjusted for price point and brand tier.
+3. **Brand-new category or promo type?** → Use conservative category-average lift discounted 20%. Build in a wider safety stock buffer for the promo period.
+4. **Cross-promoted with another category?** → Model the traffic driver separately from the cross-promo beneficiary. Apply cross-elasticity coefficient if available; default 0.15 lift for cross-category halo.
+5. **Always model the post-promo dip.** Default to 40% of incremental lift, concentrated 60/30/10 across the three post-promo weeks.
+
+### Markdown Timing Decision
+
+| Sell-Through at Season Midpoint | Action | Expected Margin Recovery |
+|---|---|---|
+| ≥ 80% of plan | Hold price. Reorder cautiously if weeks of supply < 3. | Full margin |
+| 60–79% of plan | Take 20–25% markdown. No reorder. | 70–80% of original margin |
+| 40–59% of plan | Take 30–40% markdown immediately. Cancel any open POs. | 50–65% of original margin |
+| < 40% of plan | Take 50%+ markdown. Explore liquidation channels. Flag buying error for post-mortem. | 30–45% of original margin |
+
+### Slow-Mover Kill Decision
+
+Evaluate quarterly. Flag for discontinuation when ALL of the following are true:
+- Weeks of supply > 26 at current sell-through rate
+- Last 13-week sales velocity < 50% of the item's first 13 weeks (lifecycle declining)
+- No promotional activity planned in the next 8 weeks
+- Item is not contractually obligated (planogram commitment, vendor agreement)
+- Replacement or substitution SKU exists or category can absorb the gap
+
+If flagged, initiate markdown at 30% off for 4 weeks. If still not moving, escalate to 50% off or liquidation. Set a hard exit date 8 weeks from first markdown. Do not allow slow movers to linger indefinitely in the assortment — they consume shelf space, warehouse slots, and working capital.
+
+## Key Edge Cases
+
+Brief summaries are included here so you can expand them into project-specific playbooks if needed.
+
+1. **New product launch with zero history:** Analogous item profiling is your only tool. Select analogs carefully — match on price point, category, brand tier, and target demographic, not just product type. Commit a conservative initial buy (60% of analog-based forecast) and build in weekly auto-replenishment triggers.
+
+2. **Viral social media spike:** Demand jumps 500–2,000% with no warning. Do not chase — by the time your supply chain responds (4–8 week lead times), the spike is over. Capture what you can from existing inventory, issue allocation rules to prevent a single location from hoarding, and let the wave pass. Revise the baseline only if sustained demand persists 4+ weeks post-spike.
+
+3. **Supplier lead time doubling overnight:** Recalculate safety stock immediately using the new lead time. If SS doubles, you likely cannot fill the gap from current inventory. Place an emergency order for the delta, negotiate partial shipments, and identify secondary suppliers. Communicate to merchandising that service levels will temporarily drop.
+
+4. **Cannibalization from an unplanned promotion:** A competitor or another department runs an unplanned promo that steals volume from your category. Your forecast will over-project. Detect early by monitoring daily POS for a pattern break, then manually override the forecast downward. Defer incoming orders if possible.
+
+5. **Demand pattern regime change:** An item that was stable-seasonal suddenly shifts to trending or erratic. Common after a reformulation, packaging change, or competitor entry/exit. The old model will fail silently. Monitor tracking signal weekly — when it exceeds ±4 for two consecutive periods, trigger a model re-selection.
+
+6. **Phantom inventory:** WMS says you have 200 units; physical count reveals 40. Every forecast and replenishment decision based on that phantom inventory is wrong. Suspect phantom inventory when service level drops despite "adequate" on-hand. Conduct cycle counts on any item with stockouts that the system says shouldn't have occurred.
+
+7. **Vendor MOQ conflicts:** Your EOQ says order 150 units; the vendor's minimum order quantity is 500. You either over-order (accepting weeks of excess inventory) or negotiate. Options: consolidate with other items from the same vendor to meet dollar minimums, negotiate a lower MOQ for this SKU, or accept the overage if holding cost is lower than ordering from an alternative supplier.
+
+8. **Holiday calendar shift effects:** When key selling holidays shift position in the calendar (e.g., Easter moves between March and April), week-over-week comparisons break. Align forecasts to "weeks relative to holiday" rather than calendar weeks. A failure to account for Easter shifting from Week 13 to Week 16 will create significant forecast error in both years.
+
+## Communication Patterns
+
+### Tone Calibration
+
+- **Vendor routine reorder:** Transactional, brief, PO-reference-driven. "PO #XXXX for delivery week of MM/DD per our agreed schedule."
+- **Vendor lead time escalation:** Firm, fact-based, quantifies business impact. "Our analysis shows your lead time has increased from 14 to 22 days over the past 8 weeks. This has resulted in X stockout events. We need a corrective plan by [date]."
+- **Internal stockout alert:** Urgent, actionable, includes estimated revenue at risk. Lead with the customer impact, not the inventory metric. "SKU X will stock out at 12 locations by Thursday. Estimated lost sales: $XX,000. Recommended action: [expedite/reallocate/substitute]."
+- **Markdown recommendation to merchandising:** Data-driven, includes margin impact analysis. Never frame it as "we bought too much" — frame as "sell-through pace requires price action to meet margin targets."
+- **Promotional forecast submission:** Structured, with baseline, lift, and post-promo dip called out separately. Include assumptions and confidence range. "Baseline: 500 units/week. Promotional lift estimate: 180% (900 incremental). Post-promo dip: −35% for 2 weeks. Confidence: ±25%."
+- **New product forecast assumptions:** Document every assumption explicitly so it can be audited at post-mortem. "Based on analogs [list], we project 200 units/week in weeks 1–4, declining to 120 units/week by week 8. Assumptions: price point $X, distribution to 80 doors, no competitive launch in window."
+
+Brief templates appear above. Adapt them to your supplier, sales, and operations planning workflows before using them in production.
+
+## Escalation Protocols
+
+### Automatic Escalation Triggers
+
+| Trigger | Action | Timeline |
+|---|---|---|
+| Projected stockout on A-item within 7 days | Alert demand planning manager + category merchant | Within 4 hours |
+| Vendor confirms lead time increase > 25% | Notify supply chain director; recalculate all open POs | Within 1 business day |
+| Promotional forecast miss > 40% (over or under) | Post-promo debrief with merchandising and vendor | Within 1 week of promo end |
+| Excess inventory > 26 weeks of supply on any A/B item | Markdown recommendation to merchandising VP | Within 1 week of detection |
+| Forecast bias exceeds ±10% for 4 consecutive weeks | Model review and re-parameterization | Within 2 weeks |
+| New product sell-through < 40% of plan after 4 weeks | Assortment review with merchandising | Within 1 week |
+| Service level drops below 90% for any category | Root cause analysis and corrective plan | Within 48 hours |
+
+### Escalation Chain
+
+Level 1 (Demand Planner) → Level 2 (Planning Manager, 24 hours) → Level 3 (Director of Supply Chain Planning, 48 hours) → Level 4 (VP Supply Chain, 72+ hours or any A-item stockout at enterprise customer)
+
+## Performance Indicators
+
+Track weekly and trend monthly:
+
+| Metric | Target | Red Flag |
+|---|---|---|
+| WMAPE (weighted mean absolute percentage error) | < 25% | > 35% |
+| Forecast bias | ±5% | > ±10% for 4+ weeks |
+| In-stock rate (A-items) | > 97% | < 94% |
+| In-stock rate (all items) | > 95% | < 92% |
+| Weeks of supply (aggregate) | 4–8 weeks | > 12 or < 3 |
+| Excess inventory (>26 weeks supply) | < 5% of SKUs | > 10% of SKUs |
+| Dead stock (zero sales, 13+ weeks) | < 2% of SKUs | > 5% of SKUs |
+| Purchase order fill rate from vendors | > 95% | < 90% |
+| Promotional forecast accuracy (WMAPE) | < 35% | > 50% |
+
+## Additional Resources
+
+- Pair this skill with your SKU segmentation model, service-level policy, and planner override audit log.
+- Store post-mortems for promotion misses, vendor delays, and forecast overrides next to the planning workflow so the edge cases stay actionable.

package/org-skills/investor-materials/LICENSE.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2026 Affaan Mustafa
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.

package/org-skills/investor-materials/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
+---
+name: investor-materials
+description: "Create and update pitch decks, one-pagers, investor memos, accelerator applications, financial models, and fundraising materials. Use when the user needs investor-facing documents, projections, use-of-funds tables, milestone plans, or materials that must stay internally consistent across multiple fundraising assets."
+tags: ["finance","writing"]
+tools: []
+license: MIT
+source: https://github.com/affaan-m/ECC
+source_path: "skills/investor-materials"
+source_commit: bf70150eb2df8070024e5bdf08e4aa08959e2735
+---
+# Investor Materials
+
+Build investor-facing materials that are consistent, credible, and easy to defend.
+
+## When to Activate
+
+- creating or revising a pitch deck
+- writing an investor memo or one-pager
+- building a financial model, milestone plan, or use-of-funds table
+- answering accelerator or incubator application questions
+- aligning multiple fundraising docs around one source of truth
+
+## Golden Rule
+
+All investor materials must agree with each other.
+
+Create or confirm a single source of truth before writing:
+- traction metrics
+- pricing and revenue assumptions
+- raise size and instrument
+- use of funds
+- team bios and titles
+- milestones and timelines
+
+If conflicting numbers appear, stop and resolve them before drafting.
+
+## Core Workflow
+
+1. inventory the canonical facts
+2. identify missing assumptions
+3. choose the asset type
+4. draft the asset with explicit logic
+5. cross-check every number against the source of truth
+
+## Asset Guidance
+
+### Pitch Deck
+Recommended flow:
+1. company + wedge
+2. problem
+3. solution
+4. product / demo
+5. market
+6. business model
+7. traction
+8. team
+9. competition / differentiation
+10. ask
+11. use of funds / milestones
+12. appendix
+
+If the user wants a web-native deck, pair this skill with `frontend-slides`.
+
+### One-Pager / Memo
+- state what the company does in one clean sentence
+- show why now
+- include traction and proof points early
+- make the ask precise
+- keep claims easy to verify
+
+### Financial Model
+Include:
+- explicit assumptions
+- bear / base / bull cases when useful
+- clean layer-by-layer revenue logic
+- milestone-linked spending
+- sensitivity analysis where the decision hinges on assumptions
+
+### Accelerator Applications
+- answer the exact question asked
+- prioritize traction, insight, and team advantage
+- avoid puffery
+- keep internal metrics consistent with the deck and model
+
+## Red Flags to Avoid
+
+- unverifiable claims
+- fuzzy market sizing without assumptions
+- inconsistent team roles or titles
+- revenue math that does not sum cleanly
+- inflated certainty where assumptions are fragile
+
+## Quality Gate
+
+Before delivering:
+- every number matches the current source of truth
+- use of funds and revenue layers sum correctly
+- assumptions are visible, not buried
+- the story is clear without hype language
+- the final asset is defensible in a partner meeting

package/{dist/src/orgrt/role-skills/ios-developer.md → org-skills/ios-developer/SKILL.md}

@@ -1,3 +1,11 @@
+---
+name: ios-developer
+description: "iOS Developer role best practices. Builds native iOS applications with Swift and SwiftUI — modern, safe, performant apps that follow Apple's current platform conventions and data-safety guarantees."
+tags: ["frontend","engineering"]
+tools: ["monograph_query","monograph_context","monograph_impact","monodesign_detect","monodesign_fix","monodesign_palette"]
+license: Apache-2.0
+source: https://github.com/monoes/monomind
+---
 # iOS Developer — Best Practices
 
 ## Focus

package/org-skills/isms-audit-expert/LICENSE.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2025 Alireza Rezvani
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.