quantwise 1.2.0 → 1.2.2

package/.claude/skills/technical-analyst/assets/analysis_template.md

@@ -0,0 +1,183 @@
+# Technical Analysis Report
+
+**Ticker/Symbol**: [Symbol Name]
+**Timeframe**: Weekly
+**Analysis Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD]
+**Analyst**: Claude Technical Analyst
+
+---
+
+## 1. Chart Overview
+
+[Brief description of what the chart shows - instrument type, current price level, etc.]
+
+---
+
+## 2. Trend Analysis
+
+### Current Trend
+- **Direction**: [Uptrend / Downtrend / Sideways]
+- **Strength**: [Strong / Moderate / Weak]
+- **Duration**: [How long has this trend been in place]
+
+### Trend Details
+[Detailed analysis of the trend structure - higher highs/lows, lower highs/lows, etc.]
+
+---
+
+## 3. Support and Resistance Levels
+
+### Key Support Levels
+1. **[Price Level 1]**: [Description - why this level is significant]
+2. **[Price Level 2]**: [Description]
+3. **[Price Level 3]**: [Description]
+
+### Key Resistance Levels
+1. **[Price Level 1]**: [Description - why this level is significant]
+2. **[Price Level 2]**: [Description]
+3. **[Price Level 3]**: [Description]
+
+### Support/Resistance Notes
+[Additional observations about S/R dynamics, role reversals, or confluence zones]
+
+---
+
+## 4. Moving Average Analysis
+
+### Current MA Structure
+- **Price vs 20-week MA**: [Above / Below / At] - [Current relationship]
+- **Price vs 50-week MA**: [Above / Below / At] - [Current relationship]
+- **Price vs 200-week MA**: [Above / Below / At] - [Current relationship]
+
+### MA Configuration
+- **Alignment**: [Bullish / Bearish / Neutral]
+- **Slope**: [Rising / Falling / Flat]
+- **Crossovers**: [Any recent or pending crossovers]
+
+### MA as Support/Resistance
+[Observations about MAs acting as dynamic support or resistance]
+
+---
+
+## 5. Volume Analysis
+
+### Volume Trend
+[Description of recent volume patterns - increasing, decreasing, or stable]
+
+### Volume Observations
+- [Key observation 1 - e.g., volume spike at support]
+- [Key observation 2 - e.g., declining volume on rally]
+- [Key observation 3 - e.g., volume divergence]
+
+### Volume Confirmation
+[Assessment of whether volume confirms or contradicts the price action]
+
+---
+
+## 6. Chart Patterns and Price Action
+
+### Identified Patterns
+[List any chart patterns, candlestick patterns, or notable price action]
+
+- **Pattern 1**: [Name and description]
+- **Pattern 2**: [Name and description]
+
+### Price Action Notes
+[Additional observations about recent price behavior, breakouts, rejections, etc.]
+
+---
+
+## 7. Current Market Assessment
+
+### Overall Structure
+[Synthesize all the above elements into a coherent view of the current chart structure]
+
+### Key Observations
+1. [Most important observation]
+2. [Second important observation]
+3. [Third important observation]
+
+---
+
+## 8. Scenario Analysis
+
+### Scenario 1: [Scenario Name] - **[XX]% Probability**
+
+**Description**: [What this scenario entails]
+
+**Supporting Factors**:
+- [Factor 1]
+- [Factor 2]
+- [Factor 3]
+
+**Target Levels**: [Upside or downside targets if this scenario plays out]
+
+**Invalidation Level**: [Price level that would negate this scenario]
+
+---
+
+### Scenario 2: [Scenario Name] - **[XX]% Probability**
+
+**Description**: [What this scenario entails]
+
+**Supporting Factors**:
+- [Factor 1]
+- [Factor 2]
+- [Factor 3]
+
+**Target Levels**: [Upside or downside targets if this scenario plays out]
+
+**Invalidation Level**: [Price level that would negate this scenario]
+
+---
+
+### Scenario 3: [Scenario Name] - **[XX]% Probability**
+
+**Description**: [What this scenario entails]
+
+**Supporting Factors**:
+- [Factor 1]
+- [Factor 2]
+- [Factor 3]
+
+**Target Levels**: [Upside or downside targets if this scenario plays out]
+
+**Invalidation Level**: [Price level that would negate this scenario]
+
+---
+
+### Scenario 4 (Optional): [Scenario Name] - **[XX]% Probability**
+
+**Description**: [What this scenario entails]
+
+**Supporting Factors**:
+- [Factor 1]
+- [Factor 2]
+
+**Target Levels**: [Upside or downside targets if this scenario plays out]
+
+**Invalidation Level**: [Price level that would negate this scenario]
+
+---
+
+## 9. Summary
+
+### Most Likely Outcome
+[Brief statement of the highest probability scenario]
+
+### Key Levels to Watch
+- **Critical Support**: [Level]
+- **Critical Resistance**: [Level]
+
+### Risk Considerations
+[Important caveats, limitations of the analysis, or factors that could disrupt scenarios]
+
+---
+
+## 10. Disclaimer
+
+This analysis is based purely on technical chart data and does not consider fundamental factors, news, or market sentiment. It represents a probabilistic assessment of potential scenarios, not a prediction or investment recommendation. All probabilities are estimates based on technical factors and subject to change as new data emerges.
+
+---
+
+**End of Analysis**

package/.claude/skills/technical-analyst/references/technical_analysis_framework.md

@@ -0,0 +1,282 @@
+# Technical Analysis Framework
+
+This reference provides the methodology for conducting objective, chart-based technical analysis of weekly price charts.
+
+## Core Principles
+
+1. **Chart-Only Analysis**: Base all analysis purely on chart data. Ignore external news, fundamental data, and market sentiment.
+2. **Objectivity**: Focus on observable patterns and data rather than subjective interpretations.
+3. **Weekly Timeframe**: All analysis uses weekly charts for medium to long-term perspective.
+4. **Probability-Based**: Express future scenarios as probabilities rather than certainties.
+
+## 1. Trend Analysis
+
+### Trend Classification
+
+**Uptrend Criteria:**
+- Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern
+- Price trading above key moving averages
+- Moving averages aligned in bullish order (shorter MA > longer MA)
+
+**Downtrend Criteria:**
+- Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern
+- Price trading below key moving averages
+- Moving averages aligned in bearish order (shorter MA < longer MA)
+
+**Sideways/Range-bound:**
+- No clear higher high/low or lower high/low pattern
+- Price oscillating between defined support and resistance levels
+- Moving averages flat or intertwined
+
+### Trend Strength Assessment
+
+**Strong Trend:**
+- Clear, consecutive higher highs/lows (uptrend) or lower highs/lows (downtrend)
+- Minimal retracements
+- Volume confirming price direction
+
+**Weak Trend:**
+- Irregular higher/lower highs and lows
+- Deep retracements (>50% of prior move)
+- Divergence between price and volume
+
+**Trend Exhaustion Signals:**
+- Decreasing momentum on new highs/lows
+- Volume declining as trend progresses
+- Extended distance from moving averages
+- Candlestick reversal patterns (e.g., shooting star, hammer, engulfing)
+
+## 2. Support and Resistance Analysis
+
+### Identifying Support Levels
+
+Support represents price levels where buying interest has historically prevented further decline.
+
+**Criteria for Valid Support:**
+- Price has bounced from the level at least 2-3 times
+- Volume spikes during bounces
+- Longer timeframe support carries more weight
+- Round numbers (psychological levels) often act as support
+
+**Support Types:**
+- **Horizontal Support**: Previous lows aligning at similar price levels
+- **Trendline Support**: Upward-sloping line connecting higher lows
+- **Moving Average Support**: Dynamic support from key MAs (e.g., 20-week, 50-week)
+
+### Identifying Resistance Levels
+
+Resistance represents price levels where selling interest has historically prevented further advance.
+
+**Criteria for Valid Resistance:**
+- Price has been rejected from the level at least 2-3 times
+- Volume spikes during rejections
+- Previous significant highs
+- Round numbers often act as resistance
+
+**Resistance Types:**
+- **Horizontal Resistance**: Previous highs aligning at similar price levels
+- **Trendline Resistance**: Downward-sloping line connecting lower highs
+- **Moving Average Resistance**: Dynamic resistance from key MAs
+
+### Support/Resistance Significance
+
+**Strong S/R Levels:**
+- Tested multiple times (3+ touches)
+- Long-standing (months to years)
+- High volume at previous touches
+- Confluence with other technical factors (Fibonacci, round numbers, moving averages)
+
+**Weak S/R Levels:**
+- Only 1-2 touches
+- Recent formation
+- Low volume at touches
+
+### Support-Resistance Flip
+
+When broken, support often becomes resistance and vice versa. This "role reversal" is a key concept:
+- **Broken Support → Resistance**: After downside break, previous support acts as new resistance on retests
+- **Broken Resistance → Support**: After upside break, previous resistance acts as new support on pullbacks
+
+## 3. Moving Average Analysis
+
+### Key Moving Averages for Weekly Charts
+
+- **20-week MA**: Short-term trend indicator (approximately 4 months)
+- **50-week MA**: Medium-term trend indicator (approximately 1 year)
+- **200-week MA**: Long-term trend indicator (approximately 4 years)
+
+### Moving Average Interpretations
+
+**Price Position Relative to MAs:**
+- **Above all MAs**: Strong bullish structure
+- **Below all MAs**: Strong bearish structure
+- **Between MAs**: Transitional phase, trend unclear
+
+**Moving Average Crossovers:**
+- **Golden Cross**: 20-week MA crosses above 50-week MA (bullish signal)
+- **Death Cross**: 20-week MA crosses below 50-week MA (bearish signal)
+
+**Moving Average Slope:**
+- **Rising MAs**: Bullish momentum
+- **Falling MAs**: Bearish momentum
+- **Flat MAs**: Consolidation, lack of directional momentum
+
+**Moving Average as Support/Resistance:**
+- In uptrends, MAs (especially 20-week and 50-week) often provide dynamic support
+- In downtrends, MAs often provide dynamic resistance
+- Repeated bounces or rejections from MA increase its significance
+
+### Moving Average Confluence
+
+When multiple MAs cluster together or align:
+- **Bullish Alignment**: 20-week > 50-week > 200-week (all rising)
+- **Bearish Alignment**: 20-week < 50-week < 200-week (all falling)
+- **Compressed/Converging MAs**: Often precedes significant directional move
+
+## 4. Volume Analysis
+
+Volume confirms the strength or weakness of price movements.
+
+### Volume Interpretation Principles
+
+**Volume Confirms Price:**
+- **Rising prices + Rising volume**: Healthy uptrend, strong buying
+- **Falling prices + Rising volume**: Healthy downtrend, strong selling
+- **Rising prices + Falling volume**: Weak uptrend, lack of conviction
+- **Falling prices + Falling volume**: Weak downtrend, selling exhaustion possible
+
+### Key Volume Patterns
+
+**Volume Spikes:**
+- **At Support**: High volume bounce suggests strong buying interest (bullish)
+- **At Resistance**: High volume rejection suggests strong selling interest (bearish)
+- **On Breakout**: High volume breakout validates the move
+- **Low Volume Breakout**: Often leads to failed breakout (false signal)
+
+**Volume Trends:**
+- **Increasing Volume in Trend Direction**: Confirms trend strength
+- **Decreasing Volume in Trend Direction**: Warns of potential trend exhaustion
+- **Volume Climax**: Extremely high volume often marks trend extremes (capitulation or euphoria)
+
+**Volume Divergence:**
+- **Bullish Divergence**: Price making new lows but volume declining (selling exhaustion)
+- **Bearish Divergence**: Price making new highs but volume declining (buying exhaustion)
+
+## 5. Chart Patterns and Candlestick Analysis
+
+### Reversal Patterns
+
+**Bullish Reversal:**
+- **Hammer**: Long lower wick, small body at top, appears at support
+- **Bullish Engulfing**: Large green candle fully engulfing previous red candle
+- **Morning Star**: Three-candle pattern (down, small, up)
+- **Double/Triple Bottom**: Price tests support 2-3 times then reverses
+
+**Bearish Reversal:**
+- **Shooting Star**: Long upper wick, small body at bottom, appears at resistance
+- **Bearish Engulfing**: Large red candle fully engulfing previous green candle
+- **Evening Star**: Three-candle pattern (up, small, down)
+- **Double/Triple Top**: Price tests resistance 2-3 times then reverses
+
+### Continuation Patterns
+
+**Bullish Continuation:**
+- **Bull Flag**: Consolidation after strong move up, then breakout higher
+- **Ascending Triangle**: Higher lows with flat resistance, breaks up
+
+**Bearish Continuation:**
+- **Bear Flag**: Consolidation after strong move down, then breakdown
+- **Descending Triangle**: Lower highs with flat support, breaks down
+
+### Pattern Significance
+
+Patterns carry more weight when:
+- Forming at key support/resistance levels
+- Accompanied by appropriate volume (high on breakout)
+- Confirmed by moving averages and trend structure
+- Occurring on longer timeframes (weekly > daily)
+
+## 6. Scenario Development and Probability Assignment
+
+### Scenario Development Process
+
+For each chart analysis, develop 2-4 potential scenarios:
+
+1. **Base Case Scenario**: Most likely outcome based on current chart structure
+2. **Bull Case Scenario**: Optimistic scenario if key resistance breaks
+3. **Bear Case Scenario**: Pessimistic scenario if key support breaks
+4. **Alternative Scenario** (optional): Lower probability but plausible outcome
+
+### Probability Assignment Framework
+
+Assign probabilities based on:
+
+**High Probability (50-70%):**
+- Scenario aligned with current trend
+- Multiple confirming factors (trend, S/R, MA, volume)
+- Recent price action supports scenario
+- Clear invalidation level
+
+**Medium Probability (25-45%):**
+- Scenario requires trend change or major breakout
+- Some supporting factors but not all
+- Depends on key level holding/breaking
+
+**Low Probability (5-20%):**
+- Scenario contrary to most technical factors
+- Requires significant shift in structure
+- Limited supporting evidence but technically possible
+
+### Probability Assignment Example
+
+Current Structure: Uptrend, above all MAs, holding support
+
+- **Bull Case (60%)**: Continuation higher after pullback to support
+  - Reasoning: Trend intact, holding key support, volume confirming
+
+- **Base Case (30%)**: Consolidation/range before next move
+  - Reasoning: Approaching resistance, some profit-taking visible
+
+- **Bear Case (10%)**: Break below support, trend reversal
+  - Reasoning: No clear reversal signals yet, but always possible
+
+**Note**: Probabilities should sum to 100%. Adjust based on strength of supporting factors.
+
+### Invalidation Levels
+
+For each scenario, define a specific price level that would invalidate it:
+- **Bull Scenario Invalidation**: Break below key support
+- **Bear Scenario Invalidation**: Break above key resistance
+- **Base Case Invalidation**: Breakout from range in either direction
+
+## 7. Analysis Structure and Discipline
+
+### Analysis Checklist
+
+For each chart, systematically evaluate:
+
+1. ✓ **Current Trend**: Identify direction, strength, and duration
+2. ✓ **Support Levels**: Mark significant horizontal and dynamic support
+3. ✓ **Resistance Levels**: Mark significant horizontal and dynamic resistance
+4. ✓ **Moving Averages**: Note position, slope, and crossovers
+5. ✓ **Volume Pattern**: Assess if volume confirms or contradicts price
+6. ✓ **Chart Patterns**: Identify any significant patterns forming or completing
+7. ✓ **Scenarios**: Develop 2-4 scenarios with probability estimates
+8. ✓ **Invalidation Levels**: Define what would negate each scenario
+
+### Objectivity Reminders
+
+- Avoid confirmation bias: Consider both bullish and bearish scenarios
+- Let the chart speak: Don't force patterns or signals
+- Update analysis as new data emerges: Charts are dynamic
+- Admit uncertainty: Not every chart provides clear signals
+- Focus on probabilities, not predictions: No scenario is 100% certain
+
+### Common Pitfalls to Avoid
+
+- **Overcomplicating**: Too many indicators can lead to analysis paralysis
+- **Ignoring Volume**: Price without volume is incomplete picture
+- **Forcing Patterns**: Seeing patterns that aren't clearly there
+- **Disregarding Timeframe**: Weekly chart may differ from daily
+- **Neglecting Context**: Each chart in isolation, but overall market matters
+- **Being Too Certain**: Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic