quantwise 1.2.0 → 1.2.2

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (362) hide show
  1. package/.claude/skills/README.md +80 -0
  2. package/.claude/skills/backtest-expert/SKILL.md +206 -0
  3. package/.claude/skills/backtest-expert/references/failed_tests.md +236 -0
  4. package/.claude/skills/backtest-expert/references/methodology.md +227 -0
  5. package/.claude/skills/breadth-chart-analyst/SKILL.md +583 -0
  6. package/.claude/skills/breadth-chart-analyst/assets/SP500_Breadth_Index_200MA_8MA.jpeg +0 -0
  7. package/.claude/skills/breadth-chart-analyst/assets/US_Stock_Market_Uptrend_Ratio.jpeg +0 -0
  8. package/.claude/skills/breadth-chart-analyst/assets/breadth_analysis_template.md +558 -0
  9. package/.claude/skills/breadth-chart-analyst/references/breadth_chart_methodology.md +590 -0
  10. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/SKILL.md +599 -0
  11. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/references/canslim_methodology.md +606 -0
  12. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/references/fmp_api_endpoints.md +707 -0
  13. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/references/interpretation_guide.md +516 -0
  14. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/references/scoring_system.md +597 -0
  15. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/calculators/earnings_calculator.py +343 -0
  16. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/calculators/growth_calculator.py +334 -0
  17. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/calculators/institutional_calculator.py +347 -0
  18. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/calculators/leadership_calculator.py +380 -0
  19. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/calculators/market_calculator.py +244 -0
  20. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/calculators/new_highs_calculator.py +194 -0
  21. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/calculators/supply_demand_calculator.py +221 -0
  22. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/finviz_stock_client.py +227 -0
  23. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/fmp_client.py +393 -0
  24. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/report_generator.py +405 -0
  25. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/scorer.py +625 -0
  26. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/screen_canslim.py +361 -0
  27. package/.claude/skills/canslim-screener/scripts/test_institutional_endpoint.py +109 -0
  28. package/.claude/skills/chart/SKILL.md +20 -0
  29. package/.claude/skills/dividend-growth-pullback-screener/SKILL.md +322 -0
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  33. package/.claude/skills/dividend-growth-pullback-screener/scripts/screen_dividend_growth_rsi.py +1155 -0
  34. package/.claude/skills/earnings-calendar/SKILL.md +721 -0
  35. package/.claude/skills/earnings-calendar/assets/earnings_report_template.md +102 -0
  36. package/.claude/skills/earnings-calendar/references/fmp_api_guide.md +590 -0
  37. package/.claude/skills/earnings-calendar/scripts/fetch_earnings_fmp.py +443 -0
  38. package/.claude/skills/earnings-calendar/scripts/generate_report.py +366 -0
  39. package/.claude/skills/economic-calendar-fetcher/SKILL.md +365 -0
  40. package/.claude/skills/economic-calendar-fetcher/references/fmp_api_documentation.md +345 -0
  41. package/.claude/skills/economic-calendar-fetcher/scripts/get_economic_calendar.py +267 -0
  42. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/SKILL.md +147 -0
  43. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/references/ftd_methodology.md +188 -0
  44. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/references/post_ftd_guide.md +185 -0
  45. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/fmp_client.py +158 -0
  46. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/ftd_detector.py +280 -0
  47. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/post_ftd_monitor.py +404 -0
  48. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/rally_tracker.py +508 -0
  49. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/report_generator.py +341 -0
  50. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/tests/conftest.py +9 -0
  51. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/tests/helpers.py +107 -0
  52. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/tests/test_post_ftd_monitor.py +311 -0
  53. package/.claude/skills/ftd-detector/scripts/tests/test_rally_tracker.py +302 -0
  54. package/.claude/skills/institutional-flow-tracker/README.md +362 -0
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  56. package/.claude/skills/institutional-flow-tracker/references/13f_filings_guide.md +383 -0
  57. package/.claude/skills/institutional-flow-tracker/references/institutional_investor_types.md +580 -0
  58. package/.claude/skills/institutional-flow-tracker/references/interpretation_framework.md +573 -0
  59. package/.claude/skills/institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/analyze_single_stock.py +457 -0
  60. package/.claude/skills/institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institution_portfolio.py +108 -0
  61. package/.claude/skills/institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institutional_flow.py +450 -0
  62. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/SKILL.md +86 -0
  63. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/references/historical_regimes.md +124 -0
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  66. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/calculators/__init__.py +1 -0
  67. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/calculators/concentration_calculator.py +165 -0
  68. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/calculators/credit_conditions_calculator.py +124 -0
  69. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/calculators/equity_bond_calculator.py +198 -0
  70. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/calculators/sector_rotation_calculator.py +123 -0
  71. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/calculators/size_factor_calculator.py +131 -0
  72. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/calculators/utils.py +347 -0
  73. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/calculators/yield_curve_calculator.py +279 -0
  74. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/fmp_client.py +134 -0
  75. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/macro_regime_detector.py +278 -0
  76. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/report_generator.py +327 -0
  77. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/scorer.py +574 -0
  78. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/conftest.py +9 -0
  79. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_concentration.py +78 -0
  80. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_credit_conditions.py +59 -0
  81. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_equity_bond.py +74 -0
  82. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_helpers.py +90 -0
  83. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_scorer.py +439 -0
  84. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_sector_rotation.py +78 -0
  85. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_size_factor.py +59 -0
  86. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_utils.py +126 -0
  87. package/.claude/skills/macro-regime-detector/scripts/tests/test_yield_curve.py +64 -0
  88. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/SKILL.md +121 -0
  89. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/references/breadth_analysis_methodology.md +168 -0
  90. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/calculators/__init__.py +1 -0
  91. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/calculators/bearish_signal_calculator.py +150 -0
  92. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/calculators/cycle_calculator.py +168 -0
  93. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/calculators/divergence_calculator.py +119 -0
  94. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/calculators/historical_context_calculator.py +120 -0
  95. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/calculators/ma_crossover_calculator.py +115 -0
  96. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/calculators/trend_level_calculator.py +103 -0
  97. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/csv_client.py +225 -0
  98. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/market_breadth_analyzer.py +307 -0
  99. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/report_generator.py +330 -0
  100. package/.claude/skills/market-breadth-analyzer/scripts/scorer.py +271 -0
  101. package/.claude/skills/market-environment-analysis/SKILL.md +139 -0
  102. package/.claude/skills/market-environment-analysis/references/analysis_patterns.md +124 -0
  103. package/.claude/skills/market-environment-analysis/references/indicators.md +99 -0
  104. package/.claude/skills/market-environment-analysis/scripts/market_utils.py +127 -0
  105. package/.claude/skills/market-news-analyst/SKILL.md +714 -0
  106. package/.claude/skills/market-news-analyst/references/corporate_news_impact.md +446 -0
  107. package/.claude/skills/market-news-analyst/references/geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md +499 -0
  108. package/.claude/skills/market-news-analyst/references/market_event_patterns.md +393 -0
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  110. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md +159 -0
  111. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/references/distribution_day_guide.md +100 -0
  112. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/references/historical_tops.md +142 -0
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  114. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/calculators/__init__.py +17 -0
  115. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/calculators/breadth_calculator.py +116 -0
  116. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/calculators/defensive_rotation_calculator.py +127 -0
  117. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/calculators/distribution_day_calculator.py +161 -0
  118. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/calculators/index_technical_calculator.py +254 -0
  119. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/calculators/leading_stock_calculator.py +198 -0
  120. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/calculators/sentiment_calculator.py +213 -0
  121. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/fmp_client.py +158 -0
  122. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/market_top_detector.py +349 -0
  123. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/report_generator.py +314 -0
  124. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/scorer.py +473 -0
  125. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/tests/conftest.py +9 -0
  126. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/tests/helpers.py +49 -0
  127. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/tests/test_breadth.py +62 -0
  128. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/tests/test_defensive_rotation.py +56 -0
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  130. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/tests/test_index_technical.py +73 -0
  131. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/tests/test_leading_stock.py +57 -0
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  133. package/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/scripts/tests/test_sentiment.py +64 -0
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+ # Druckenmiller 投资决策案例集
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+
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+ ## 历史性成功案例
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+
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+ ### 1. 1981年 Volcker 主席的货币紧缩
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+ **背景**:通胀率达到两位数,美联储主席 Paul Volcker 实施强力货币紧缩
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+
8
+ **Druckenmiller 的分析**:
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+ - 「这个人(Volcker)绝对不会容忍通胀」,坚定确信
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+ - 市场共识预期通胀将持续
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+ - 14%的长期利率尚未消化未来的去通胀
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+
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+ **投资行动**:
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+ - 将基金50%的资金集中投资于年利率14%的长期国债
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+ - 与市场预期的通胀持续情景反向操作
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+
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+ **结果**:
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+ - 通胀率迅速下降
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+ - 长期国债价格大幅上涨
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+ - 获得巨额回报
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+
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+ **教训**:正确评估央行的政策决心,与市场共识反向大胆下注
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+
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+ ### 2. 1992年 英镑危机(黑色星期三)
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+ **背景**:英国在欧洲汇率机制(ERM)中勉强维持英镑高位
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+
27
+ **Druckenmiller 的分析**:
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+ - 英国的经济基本面疲弱
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+ - 高利率政策不可持续
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+ - 与德国的利差与经济实态严重背离
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+
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+ **投资行动**:
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+ - 向 Soros 进言「应该下更大的注」
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+ - 构建100亿美元规模的英镑空头仓位
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+
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+ **结果**:
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+ - 英国被迫退出 ERM
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+ - 英镑急跌
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+ - 获利超过10亿美元
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+
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+ **教训**:不可持续的政策必然崩溃。有确信时,巨大的仓位也是合理的
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+
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+ ### 3. 2007-2008年 金融危机
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+ **背景**:2003-2004年美联储的低利率政策催生了房地产泡沫
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+
46
+ **Druckenmiller 的分析**:
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+ - 美联储「长期低利率」的承诺明显过度
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+ - 房价上涨不可持续
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+ - 金融体系积累了严重的扭曲
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+
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+ **投资行动**:
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+ - 约2005年起预见房地产市场崩盘并提前准备
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+ - 做多债券,做空金融股
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+ - 转向安全资产
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+
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+ **结果**:
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+ - 2008年依然实现正收益
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+ - 在市场暴跌中守住并增加了资产
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+
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+ **教训**:央行的政策失误会在数年后引发重大危机。早期察觉并做好准备至关重要
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+
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+ ### 4. 2023年 维持谨慎姿态
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+ **背景**:通胀、利率上升、地缘政治风险等高度不确定环境
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+
65
+ **Druckenmiller 的分析**:
66
+ - 「历史上前所未有的复杂环境」
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+ - 看不到明确的投资机会(fat pitch)
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+ - 风险回报不明确
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+
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+ **投资行动**:
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+ - 尽量压缩仓位
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+ - 将日度波动率控制在0.3-0.4%
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+ - 保持高现金比例
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+
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+ **教训**:看不清时不要勉强出手。等待机会也是重要的策略
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+
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+ ## 投资决策模式分析
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+
79
+ ### 模式1:政策转向的先行预判
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+ **特征**:
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+ - 央行政策接近转折点
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+ - 市场仍在消化旧政策的延续
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+ - 比其他人更早认识到转向后的影响
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+
85
+ **行动**:
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+ - 识别政策转向后受益/受损最大的资产
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+ - 在市场察觉之前建仓
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+ - 转向明确后追加投资
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+
90
+ ### 模式2:发现不可持续的扭曲
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+ **特征**:
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+ - 价格或政策与经济实态脱节
93
+ - 当局或市场参与者过度自信
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+ - 崩溃的催化剂开始显现
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+
96
+ **行动**:
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+ - 建立在扭曲消除时获利的仓位
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+ - 时机灵活把握(有时会过早)
99
+ - 崩溃开始后积极追击
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+
101
+ ### 模式3:极端情绪的逆向操作
102
+ **特征**:
103
+ - 市场极端地偏向一个方向
104
+ - 恐惧或贪婪扭曲了判断
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+ - 基本面被忽视
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+
107
+ **行动**:
108
+ - 站在情绪化交易的对立面
109
+ - 分步建仓
110
+ - 等待情绪转换的征兆
111
+
112
+ ### 模式4:高度不确定时的观望
113
+ **特征**:
114
+ - 存在多个可能的情景
115
+ - 难以预测市场方向
116
+ - 风险回报不明确
117
+
118
+ **行动**:
119
+ - 最小化仓位
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+ - 确保流动性
121
+ - 等到形势明朗再出手
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+
123
+ ## 实时应用方法
124
+
125
+ ### 步骤1:现状分析
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+ 1. 当前处于哪个经济/政策周期?
127
+ 2. 市场共识是什么?
128
+ 3. 是否存在不可持续的扭曲?
129
+
130
+ ### 步骤2:18个月前瞻
131
+ 1. 当前的政策/趋势是否可持续?
132
+ 2. 可能成为转折点的催化剂是什么?
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+ 3. 市场尚未消化什么?
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+
135
+ ### 步骤3:投资机会评估
136
+ 1. 风险回报是否有吸引力?
137
+ 2. 确信度有多高?
138
+ 3. 时机是否合适?
139
+
140
+ ### 步骤4:仓位决策
141
+ 1. 根据确信度设定仓位规模
142
+ 2. 设想并确认可承受的最大亏损
143
+ 3. 预先设定出场条件
144
+
145
+ ### 步骤5:持续监控
146
+ 1. 投资逻辑是否仍然有效?
147
+ 2. 是否有新信息需要修正判断?
148
+ 3. 是否出现了更好的机会?
@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
1
+ # Druckenmiller 的投资哲学与策略
2
+
3
+ ## 1. 仓位构建与风险管理原则
4
+
5
+ ### 集中投资哲学
6
+ - **"做一头猪(pig)"**:对高确信度的机会大胆集中投资
7
+ - **否定分散投资**:「分散投资是商学院教的最错误的概念」
8
+ - **等待策略**:每年等待1-2次绝佳机会,然后重仓出击
9
+ - **格言**:「把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里,然后仔细看好那个篮子」
10
+
11
+ ### 资金管理铁律
12
+ - **资本保全最优先**:绝对避免大幅回撤
13
+ - **亏损的数学**:「亏损50%需要100%的收益才能回本」
14
+ - **张弛有度的投资**:
15
+ - 平时:将亏损控制在零到几个百分点
16
+ - 有确信时:追求+50~60%的大胜
17
+ - **根据确信度调整仓位**:看不清时不挥棒
18
+
19
+ ### 止损的贯彻
20
+ - **即刻撤退**:投资逻辑崩塌时立即平仓
21
+ - **Soros 的教诲**:从「史上最伟大的止损高手」那里学到止损的重要性
22
+ - **否定对冲**:「如果一个仓位需要对冲,那一开始就不应该持有」
23
+ - **盈利时加仓**:利润在手时更积极进攻
24
+
25
+ ## 2. 市场观点形成过程
26
+
27
+ ### 宏观经济分析视角
28
+ - **看未来18个月**:「不要投资现在,要投资未来」
29
+ - **流动性至上**:「驱动市场的不是企业盈利,而是央行和流动性」
30
+ - **预期的重要性**:「重要的是人们接下来会对这家公司抱有什么样的期待」
31
+
32
+ ### 央行政策分析
33
+ - **察觉政策失误**:看穿央行过度的政策
34
+ - **预判转折点**:提前预读货币政策的重大转折
35
+ - **历史案例**:
36
+ - 1980年代初:确信 Volcker 主席的通胀抑制决心,集中投资长期国债
37
+ - 2003-2004年:警惕美联储低利率政策的过度
38
+ - 2007-2008年:预见住房泡沫破裂并做好准备
39
+
40
+ ### 全球多资产视角
41
+ - **5-6个资产篮子**:俯瞰股票、债券、外汇、大宗商品
42
+ - **选择最优战场**:选择最有利的市场和资产
43
+ - **等待也是交易**:没有明确机会时提高现金比例
44
+ - **波动率管理**:将日度波动控制在0.3-0.4%左右
45
+
46
+ ## 3. 熊市策略
47
+
48
+ ### 弱势市场中的优势
49
+ - **业绩**:「大约80%的利润是在熊市中赚到的」
50
+ - **机会来源**:利用央行政策失误造成的市场扭曲
51
+
52
+ ### 具体战术
53
+ - **做空的难度**:认识到「股票做空非常困难」
54
+ - **做多债券**:在经济衰退阶段通过做多长期国债获利
55
+ - **转向安全资产**:切换到国债、黄金、稳定货币
56
+ - **利用扭曲**:将过度悲观产生的价格扭曲作为进攻机会
57
+
58
+ ### 熊市铁律
59
+ 1. **早期察觉**:尽早捕捉危机征兆
60
+ 2. **防御姿态**:急速减少股票敞口
61
+ 3. **逆向投资的勇气**:押注过度反应造成的扭曲
62
+ 4. **生存最优先**:避免大亏,活到下一次机会
63
+
64
+ ## 4. 投资决策的心态
65
+
66
+ ### 开放心态与灵活性
67
+ - **倾听市场的声音**:不固执于自己的预测
68
+ - **即刻修正**:发现错误时立即转向
69
+ - **谦逊**:对市场保持敬畏
70
+
71
+ ### 心理管理
72
+ - **自我认知**:「要自觉状态好和状态差的时候」
73
+ - **根据状态调整**:
74
+ - 状态不好时:只打安打
75
+ - 状态好时:追求全垒打
76
+
77
+ ### 长期成功的秘诀
78
+ - **大胆与谨慎并存**:攻守张弛有度
79
+ - **耐心**:等待机会的能力
80
+ - **决断力**:看到机会时承担最大风险的勇气
@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
1
+ # Druckenmiller 式市场分析指南
2
+
3
+ ## 宏观经济分析框架
4
+
5
+ ### 1. 央行政策评估
6
+
7
+ #### 分析要点
8
+ - **利率政策方向**:处于宽松、中性还是紧缩周期的哪个位置
9
+ - **流动性变化**:货币供应量、QE/QT 动向
10
+ - **政策可持续性**:寻找政策过度的征兆
11
+ - **与市场预期的偏差**:央行意图与市场理解之间的差距
12
+
13
+ #### 需要警惕的政策失误信号
14
+ - 长期维持极端低利率
15
+ - 无视通胀压力继续宽松
16
+ - 过于急剧的政策转向
17
+ - 与市场沟通失败
18
+
19
+ ### 2. 18个月前瞻预测
20
+
21
+ #### 预测的构成要素
22
+ 1. **经济周期位置**
23
+ - 处于扩张初期、中期、后期、减速还是衰退阶段
24
+ - 下一个转折点大约在什么时候
25
+
26
+ 2. **与政策周期的关系**
27
+ - 货币政策是领先经济还是滞后
28
+ - 财政政策的影响程度
29
+
30
+ 3. **市场预期的消化程度**
31
+ - 共识预期是乐观还是悲观
32
+ - 可能出现意外的地方在哪里
33
+
34
+ ### 3. 全球资产配置决策
35
+
36
+ #### 各资产类别评估标准
37
+
38
+ **股票**
39
+ - 流动性环境(宽松还是紧缩)
40
+ - 企业盈利方向(改善还是恶化)
41
+ - 估值水平(偏高还是偏低)
42
+ - 市场情绪(乐观还是悲观)
43
+
44
+ **债券**
45
+ - 利率方向预测
46
+ - 收益率曲线形态
47
+ - 信用利差动向
48
+ - 通胀预期
49
+
50
+ **外汇**
51
+ - 利差动向
52
+ - 经常账户状况
53
+ - 政治稳定性
54
+ - 资本流动方向
55
+
56
+ **大宗商品**
57
+ - 供需平衡
58
+ - 美元强弱
59
+ - 通胀/通缩压力
60
+ - 地缘政治风险
61
+
62
+ ## 仓位构建实践
63
+
64
+ ### 确信度评估标准
65
+
66
+ #### 高确信度(重仓出击)条件
67
+ 1. **多个因素指向同一方向**("鸭子排成一列")
68
+ 2. **与市场共识存在重大偏差**
69
+ 3. **风险回报比非常有利**
70
+ 4. **存在明确的催化剂**
71
+
72
+ #### 低确信度(观望)信号
73
+ - 相互矛盾的信号混杂
74
+ - 不确定性极高
75
+ - 风险回报不明确
76
+ - 时机无法判断
77
+
78
+ ### 入场与出场判断
79
+
80
+ #### 入场条件
81
+ 1. **技术面确认**:确认趋势处于初期阶段
82
+ 2. **基本面**:投资主题明确
83
+ 3. **情绪面**:存在过度乐观或悲观
84
+ 4. **风险管理**:最大亏损在可承受范围内
85
+
86
+ #### 出场条件
87
+ - **投资逻辑消失**:初始情景已崩塌
88
+ - **目标达成**:达到预期收益
89
+ - **更好的机会**:出现更有吸引力的投资机会
90
+ - **风险环境变化**:市场环境发生重大变化
91
+
92
+ ## 危机应对方案
93
+
94
+ ### 熊市来临的征兆
95
+
96
+ 1. **货币政策转折点**
97
+ - 从宽松到紧缩的明确转向
98
+ - 流动性急速收缩
99
+
100
+ 2. **信用市场压力**
101
+ - 信用利差急剧扩大
102
+ - 银行间市场功能失灵
103
+
104
+ 3. **情绪极度乐观**
105
+ - 所有人都看多
106
+ - 风险被低估
107
+ - 杠杆过度使用
108
+
109
+ ### 危机时的行动指南
110
+
111
+ 1. **立即转入防御**
112
+ - 减少风险资产
113
+ - 解除杠杆
114
+ - 确保流动性
115
+
116
+ 2. **转向安全资产**
117
+ - 长期国债
118
+ - 黄金
119
+ - 避险货币(日元、瑞士法郎等)
120
+
121
+ 3. **寻找逆向机会**
122
+ - 过度抛售造成的扭曲
123
+ - 避险情绪导致优质资产被低估
124
+ - 政策应对带来的转折点
125
+
126
+ ## 日常监控项目
127
+
128
+ ### 每日检查指标
129
+ - 主要国家利率动向
130
+ - 股市内部结构(上涨/下跌家数等)
131
+ - 外汇市场动态
132
+ - VIX 等波动率指标
133
+ - 信用市场动向
134
+
135
+ ### 每周/每月复盘项目
136
+ - 经济指标预期与实际的偏差
137
+ - 央行官员发言基调
138
+ - 资金流数据
139
+ - 持仓数据
140
+ - 情绪指标
141
+
142
+ ### 每季度宏观格局检查
143
+ - 投资主题的有效性确认
144
+ - 18个月前瞻预测的修正
145
+ - 组合整体风险评估
146
+ - 发掘新的投资机会
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
1
+ # Notion Database Setup for Stock Analysis
2
+
3
+ Run this in a new QuantWise session where Notion MCP is connected.
4
+
5
+ ## Create Database
6
+
7
+ Use `mcp__notion__notion-create-database` to create:
8
+
9
+ **Database: Stock Analysis**
10
+
11
+ Properties:
12
+ | Property | Type | Description |
13
+ |----------|------|-------------|
14
+ | Symbol | Title | 股票代码 (e.g., AAPL) |
15
+ | Price | Number | 当前价格 |
16
+ | Change % | Number | 涨跌幅 |
17
+ | Market Cap | Number | 市值 |
18
+ | PE Ratio | Number | 市盈率 |
19
+ | Volume | Number | 成交量 |
20
+ | Analysis Type | Select | technical / fundamental / screener |
21
+ | Recommendation | Select | buy / sell / hold |
22
+ | Summary | Rich Text | 分析摘要 |
23
+ | Fetched At | Date | 数据获取时间 |
24
+
25
+ ## Quick Command
26
+
27
+ In a new session, say:
28
+ ```
29
+ Create a Notion database called "Stock Analysis" with these properties:
30
+ Symbol (title), Price (number), Change % (number), Market Cap (number),
31
+ PE Ratio (number), Volume (number), Analysis Type (select: technical/fundamental/screener),
32
+ Recommendation (select: buy/sell/hold), Summary (rich text), Fetched At (date)
33
+ ```
@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
1
+ ---
2
+ name: stock
3
+ description: "股票分析工作站。查询实时行情、技术分析、终端K线图、存入Notion。当用户询问股票、行情、分析、交易时使用。"
4
+ user-invocable: true
5
+ allowed-tools: [Bash, mcp__stock-analysis__get_stock_quote, mcp__notion__notion-create-pages, mcp__notion__notion-search, mcp__notion__notion-query-database-view]
6
+ context: inline
7
+ argument-hint: "AAPL 或 chart AAPL / save AAPL / history AAPL / analyze AAPL"
8
+ ---
9
+
10
+ ## 股票分析工作站
11
+
12
+ 根据用户参数执行对应操作:
13
+
14
+ ### 命令路由
15
+
16
+ 1. **`/stock <SYMBOL>`** — 查询实时行情
17
+ - 调用 `mcp__stock-analysis__get_stock_quote` 获取 ticker 为 $ARGUMENTS 的数据
18
+ - 格式化展示:价格、涨跌幅、市值、PE、成交量
19
+
20
+ 2. **`/stock chart <SYMBOL>`** — 终端 K 线图
21
+ - 获取 OHLCV 数据
22
+ - 写入 /tmp/chart_<SYMBOL>.json,格式:[{open, high, low, close, volume, timestamp, type}]
23
+ - 执行 Bash: `candlestick-cli -f /tmp/chart_<SYMBOL>.json -t "<SYMBOL>" --height 25`
24
+
25
+ 3. **`/stock save <SYMBOL>`** — 存入 Notion
26
+ - 获取实时数据后,用 `mcp__notion__notion-create-pages` 写入 Stock Analysis 数据库
27
+ - 填充所有属性字段
28
+
29
+ 4. **`/stock history <SYMBOL>`** — 查询历史
30
+ - 用 `mcp__notion__notion-search` 搜索该 symbol 的历史记录
31
+ - 表格形式展示
32
+
33
+ 5. **`/stock analyze <SYMBOL>`** — 深度分析
34
+ - 获取数据后,运用技术分析和基本面知识进行综合分析
35
+ - 输出买卖建议和信心评级
36
+ - 自动存入 Notion
37
+
38
+ 如果参数不匹配以上命令,默认执行查询实时行情。
@@ -0,0 +1,238 @@
1
+ ---
2
+ name: technical-analyst
3
+ description: This skill should be used when analyzing weekly price charts for stocks, stock indices, cryptocurrencies, or forex pairs. Use this skill when the user provides chart images and requests technical analysis, trend identification, support/resistance levels, scenario planning, or probability assessments based purely on chart data without consideration of news or fundamental factors.
4
+ ---
5
+
6
+ # Technical Analyst
7
+
8
+ ## Overview
9
+
10
+ This skill enables comprehensive technical analysis of weekly price charts. Analyze chart images to identify trends, support and resistance levels, moving average relationships, volume patterns, and develop probabilistic scenarios for future price movement. All analysis is conducted objectively using only chart data, without influence from news, fundamentals, or market sentiment.
11
+
12
+ ## Core Principles
13
+
14
+ 1. **Pure Chart Analysis**: Base all conclusions exclusively on technical data visible in the chart
15
+ 2. **Systematic Approach**: Follow a structured methodology for each chart analysis
16
+ 3. **Objective Assessment**: Avoid subjective bias; focus on observable patterns and data
17
+ 4. **Probabilistic Scenarios**: Express future possibilities as probability-weighted scenarios
18
+ 5. **Sequential Processing**: Analyze each chart individually and document findings immediately
19
+
20
+ ## Analysis Workflow
21
+
22
+ ### Step 1: Receive Chart Images
23
+
24
+ When the user provides one or more weekly chart images for analysis:
25
+
26
+ 1. Confirm receipt of all chart images
27
+ 2. Identify the number of charts to analyze
28
+ 3. Note any specific focus areas requested by the user
29
+ 4. Proceed to analyze charts sequentially, one at a time
30
+
31
+ ### Step 2: Load Technical Analysis Framework
32
+
33
+ Before beginning analysis, read the comprehensive technical analysis methodology:
34
+
35
+ ```
36
+ Read: references/technical_analysis_framework.md
37
+ ```
38
+
39
+ This reference contains detailed guidance on:
40
+ - Trend analysis and classification
41
+ - Support and resistance identification
42
+ - Moving average interpretation
43
+ - Volume analysis
44
+ - Chart patterns and candlestick analysis
45
+ - Scenario development and probability assignment
46
+ - Analysis discipline and objectivity
47
+
48
+ ### Step 3: Analyze Each Chart Systematically
49
+
50
+ For each chart image, conduct a systematic analysis following this sequence:
51
+
52
+ #### 3.1 Trend Analysis
53
+ - Identify trend direction (uptrend, downtrend, sideways)
54
+ - Assess trend strength (strong, moderate, weak)
55
+ - Note trend duration and potential exhaustion signals
56
+ - Examine higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows pattern
57
+
58
+ #### 3.2 Support and Resistance Analysis
59
+ - Mark significant horizontal support levels
60
+ - Mark significant horizontal resistance levels
61
+ - Identify trendline support/resistance
62
+ - Note any support-resistance role reversals
63
+ - Assess confluence zones where multiple S/R levels align
64
+
65
+ #### 3.3 Moving Average Analysis
66
+ - Determine price position relative to 20-week, 50-week, and 200-week MAs
67
+ - Assess MA alignment (bullish, bearish, or neutral configuration)
68
+ - Note MA slope (rising, falling, flat)
69
+ - Identify any recent or pending MA crossovers
70
+ - Observe MAs acting as dynamic support or resistance
71
+
72
+ #### 3.4 Volume Analysis
73
+ - Assess overall volume trend (increasing, decreasing, stable)
74
+ - Identify volume spikes and their context (at support/resistance, on breakouts)
75
+ - Check for volume confirmation or divergence with price
76
+ - Note any volume climax or exhaustion patterns
77
+
78
+ #### 3.5 Chart Patterns and Price Action
79
+ - Identify any reversal patterns (hammers, shooting stars, engulfing patterns, etc.)
80
+ - Identify any continuation patterns (flags, triangles, etc.)
81
+ - Note significant candlestick formations
82
+ - Observe recent breakouts or breakdowns
83
+
84
+ #### 3.6 Synthesize Observations
85
+ - Integrate all technical elements into coherent current assessment
86
+ - Identify the most significant factors influencing the chart
87
+ - Note any conflicting signals or ambiguity
88
+ - Establish key levels that will determine future direction
89
+
90
+ ### Step 4: Develop Probabilistic Scenarios
91
+
92
+ For each analyzed chart, create 2-4 distinct scenarios for future price movement:
93
+
94
+ #### Scenario Structure
95
+
96
+ Each scenario must include:
97
+ 1. **Scenario Name**: Clear, descriptive title (e.g., "Bull Case: Breakout Above Resistance")
98
+ 2. **Probability Estimate**: Percentage likelihood based on technical factors (must sum to 100% across all scenarios)
99
+ 3. **Description**: What this scenario entails and how it would unfold
100
+ 4. **Supporting Factors**: Technical evidence supporting this scenario (minimum 2-3 factors)
101
+ 5. **Target Levels**: Expected price levels if scenario plays out
102
+ 6. **Invalidation Level**: Specific price level that would negate this scenario
103
+
104
+ #### Typical Scenario Framework
105
+
106
+ - **Base Case Scenario (40-60%)**: Most likely outcome based on current structure
107
+ - **Bull Case Scenario (20-40%)**: Optimistic scenario requiring upside breakout
108
+ - **Bear Case Scenario (20-40%)**: Pessimistic scenario requiring downside breakdown
109
+ - **Alternative Scenario (5-15%)**: Lower probability but technically plausible outcome
110
+
111
+ Adjust probabilities based on strength of supporting technical factors. Ensure probabilities are realistic and sum to 100%.
112
+
113
+ ### Step 5: Generate Analysis Report
114
+
115
+ For each chart analyzed, create a comprehensive markdown report using the template structure:
116
+
117
+ ```
118
+ Read and use as template: assets/analysis_template.md
119
+ ```
120
+
121
+ The report must include all sections:
122
+ 1. Chart Overview
123
+ 2. Trend Analysis
124
+ 3. Support and Resistance Levels
125
+ 4. Moving Average Analysis
126
+ 5. Volume Analysis
127
+ 6. Chart Patterns and Price Action
128
+ 7. Current Market Assessment
129
+ 8. Scenario Analysis (2-4 scenarios with probabilities)
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+ 9. Summary
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+ 10. Disclaimer
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+
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+ **File Naming Convention**: Save each analysis as `[SYMBOL]_technical_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
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+
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+ Example: `SPY_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md`
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+
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+ ### Step 6: Repeat for Multiple Charts
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+
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+ If multiple charts are provided:
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+
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+ 1. Complete the full analysis workflow (Steps 3-5) for the first chart
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+ 2. Save the analysis report
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+ 3. Proceed to the next chart
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+ 4. Repeat until all charts have been analyzed and documented
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+
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+ Do not batch analyses. Complete and save each report before moving to the next chart.
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+
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+ ## Quality Standards
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+
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+ ### Objectivity Requirements
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+
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+ - Base all analysis strictly on observable chart data
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+ - Avoid incorporating external information (news, fundamentals, sentiment)
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+ - Do not use subjective language like "I think" or "I feel"
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+ - Express uncertainty clearly when signals are ambiguous
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+ - Present both bullish and bearish possibilities to avoid confirmation bias
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+
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+ ### Completeness Requirements
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+
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+ - Address all sections of the analysis template
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+ - Provide specific price levels for support, resistance, and targets
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+ - Justify probability estimates with technical factors
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+ - Include invalidation levels for each scenario
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+ - Note any limitations or caveats to the analysis
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+
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+ ### Clarity Requirements
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+
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+ - Use precise technical terminology correctly
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+ - Write in clear, professional language
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+ - Structure information logically
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+ - Include specific price levels (not vague descriptions)
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+ - Make scenarios distinct and mutually exclusive
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+
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+ ## Example Usage Scenarios
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+
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+ **Example 1: Single Chart Analysis**
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+ ```
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+ User: "Please analyze this weekly chart of the S&P 500"
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+ [Provides chart image]
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+
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+ Analyst:
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+ 1. Confirms receipt of chart image
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+ 2. Reads technical_analysis_framework.md for methodology
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+ 3. Conducts systematic analysis (trend, S/R, MA, volume, patterns)
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+ 4. Develops 3 scenarios with probabilities (e.g., 55% bullish continuation, 30% consolidation, 15% reversal)
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+ 5. Generates comprehensive analysis report using template
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+ 6. Saves as SPY_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md
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+ ```
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+
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+ **Example 2: Multiple Chart Analysis**
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+ ```
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+ User: "Analyze these three charts: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Nasdaq"
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+ [Provides 3 chart images]
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+
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+ Analyst:
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+ 1. Confirms receipt of 3 charts
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+ 2. Reads technical_analysis_framework.md
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+ 3. Analyzes Bitcoin chart completely → Generates report → Saves as BTC_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md
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+ 4. Analyzes Ethereum chart completely → Generates report → Saves as ETH_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md
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+ 5. Analyzes Nasdaq chart completely → Generates report → Saves as NDX_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md
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+ 6. Notifies user that all three analyses are complete
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+ ```
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+
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+ **Example 3: Focused Analysis Request**
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+ ```
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+ User: "I'm particularly interested in whether this stock will break above resistance. Analyze the chart."
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+ [Provides chart image]
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+
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+ Analyst:
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+ 1. Conducts full systematic analysis
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+ 2. Pays special attention to resistance levels and breakout probability
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+ 3. Develops scenarios with emphasis on breakout vs. rejection possibilities
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+ 4. Assigns probabilities based on volume, trend strength, and proximity to resistance
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+ 5. Generates complete report with focused scenario analysis
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+ ```
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+
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+ ## Resources
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+
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+ This skill includes the following bundled resources:
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+
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+ ### references/technical_analysis_framework.md
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+
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+ Comprehensive methodology for technical analysis including:
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+ - Trend analysis criteria and classification
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+ - Support and resistance identification techniques
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+ - Moving average interpretation guidelines
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+ - Volume analysis principles
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+ - Chart pattern recognition
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+ - Scenario development and probability assignment framework
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+ - Objectivity and discipline reminders
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+
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+ **Usage**: Read this file before conducting analysis to ensure systematic, objective approach.
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+
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+ ### assets/analysis_template.md
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+
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+ Structured template for technical analysis reports with all required sections.
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+
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+ **Usage**: Use this template structure for every analysis report. Copy the format and populate with specific findings for each chart.