quantwise 1.2.0 → 1.2.2

package/.claude/skills/scenario-analyzer/references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md

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+# 板块敏感度矩阵
+
+本参考资料以矩阵形式整理了各类事件类型对各板块的敏感度。
+在情景分析时使用，以快速判断哪些板块容易受到影响。
+
+## 图例
+
+**影响度：**
+- `++` : 强正面影响
+- `+` : 正面影响
+- `0` : 中性/影响轻微
+- `-` : 负面影响
+- `--` : 强负面影响
+
+**确信度：**
+- `H` : 高（历史模式一致）
+- `M` : 中（视情况而定）
+- `L` : 低（不确定性高）
+
+---
+
+## 1. 按货币政策事件分类的矩阵
+
+### 加息环境
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 金融（银行） | + | H | JPM, BAC, WFC | 净利息收入增加 |
+| 金融（保险） | + | M | MET, PRU, AIG | 投资收益改善 |
+| 科技 | - | H | AAPL, MSFT, NVDA | 高估值折价 |
+| 非必需消费品 | - | H | AMZN, HD, NKE | 借贷成本上升 |
+| 房地产（REIT） | -- | H | AMT, PLD, EQIX | 利率敏感，融资成本增加 |
+| 公用事业 | - | H | NEE, DUK, SO | 作为债券替代品的吸引力下降 |
+| 医疗保健 | 0 | M | UNH, JNJ, PFE | 相对防御性 |
+| 必需消费品 | 0 | M | PG, KO, WMT | 相对防御性 |
+| 能源 | 0 | L | XOM, CVX, COP | 取决于宏观环境 |
+| 材料 | - | M | LIN, APD, ECL | 周期敏感 |
+| 工业 | - | M | CAT, DE, HON | 资本开支放缓担忧 |
+| 通信服务 | 0 | M | GOOGL, META, DIS | 个股因素影响大 |
+
+### 降息环境
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 科技 | ++ | H | AAPL, MSFT, NVDA | 成长股估值扩张 |
+| 房地产（REIT） | ++ | H | AMT, PLD, EQIX | 融资成本下降 |
+| 公用事业 | + | H | NEE, DUK, SO | 股息收益率相对吸引力提升 |
+| 非必需消费品 | + | H | AMZN, HD, NKE | 刺激消费 |
+| 金融（银行） | - | H | JPM, BAC, WFC | 净利息收入减少 |
+| 医疗保健 | 0 | M | UNH, JNJ, PFE | 相对防御性 |
+| 必需消费品 | 0 | M | PG, KO, WMT | 相对防御性 |
+| 能源 | 0 | L | XOM, CVX, COP | 取决于宏观环境 |
+
+---
+
+## 2. 按地缘政治事件分类的矩阵
+
+### 战争与武装冲突
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 国防 | ++ | H | LMT, RTX, NOC, GD | 军费开支增加 |
+| 能源 | + | H | XOM, CVX, COP | 供应担忧推高价格 |
+| 黄金（金矿） | ++ | H | NEM, GOLD, AEM | 避险资产需求 |
+| 航空 | -- | H | DAL, UAL, AAL | 燃料成本上升，需求减少 |
+| 旅游休闲 | -- | H | MAR, HLT, BKNG | 需求萎缩 |
+| 保险 | - | M | AIG, TRV, ALL | 地缘政治风险拨备 |
+| 半导体 | - | M | NVDA, AMD, INTC | 供应链风险 |
+| 海运 | +/- | L | ZIM, DAC, MATX | 影响因航线而异 |
+
+### 关税与贸易摩擦（对中国）
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 半导体（设备） | -- | H | AMAT, LRCX, KLAC | 中国市场限制 |
+| 消费品（依赖中国） | - | H | NKE, AAPL | 生产和销售两端均受影响 |
+| 农业 | - | H | DE, ADM, BG | 对华出口减少 |
+| 墨西哥生产企业 | + | M | - | 供应链替代受益 |
+| 国内制造企业 | + | M | - | 在岸化受益 |
+
+---
+
+## 3. 按监管与政策变更分类的矩阵
+
+### 环境监管强化
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 可再生能源（太阳能） | ++ | H | ENPH, SEDG, FSLR | 政策支持扩大 |
+| 可再生能源（风力） | ++ | H | NEE, AES | 政策支持扩大 |
+| EV | ++ | H | TSLA, RIVN, LCID | 监管带来的需求增长 |
+| 锂与电池 | ++ | H | ALB, LTHM | EV需求联动 |
+| 石油天然气 | -- | H | XOM, CVX, COP | 搁浅资产风险 |
+| 煤炭 | -- | H | - | 淘汰加速 |
+| 航空 | - | M | DAL, UAL, AAL | 可持续航空燃料强制要求成本 |
+| 汽车（传统型） | - | M | F, GM | EV转型成本 |
+
+### 金融监管强化
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 大型银行 | - | H | JPM, BAC, C | 资本要求增加，收益受压 |
+| 地方银行 | -- | H | - | 合规成本负担大 |
+| 金融科技 | +/- | M | SQ, PYPL | 视监管内容受益或受损 |
+| 加密资产相关 | - | M | COIN | 监管不确定性 |
+
+### 反垄断法强化
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 大型科技 | - | M | GOOGL, META, AMZN, AAPL | 业务拆分风险 |
+| 通信 | - | M | T, VZ | 并购阻止风险 |
+| 中小型科技 | + | M | - | 竞争环境改善受益 |
+
+---
+
+## 4. 按科技转型分类的矩阵
+
+### AI革命加速
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 半导体（GPU） | ++ | H | NVDA, AMD | AI训练/推理芯片需求 |
+| 半导体（内存） | ++ | H | MU, WDC | HBM需求 |
+| 云基础设施 | ++ | H | MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL | AI基础设施提供 |
+| 企业软件 | + | H | CRM, NOW, ADBE | AI功能集成 |
+| 数据中心REIT | ++ | H | EQIX, DLR | 需求急增 |
+| 电力公司 | + | M | NEE, SO | 数据中心电力需求 |
+| BPO/外包 | -- | M | - | AI自动化替代 |
+
+### EV普及加速
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| EV制造 | ++ | H | TSLA, RIVN | 市场扩大 |
+| 电池/锂 | ++ | H | ALB, LTHM, LAC | 材料需求 |
+| 充电基础设施 | ++ | H | CHPT, BLNK | 基础设施投资 |
+| 电力公司 | + | M | NEE, SO | 电力需求增长 |
+| 传统汽车 | - | M | F, GM | 转型成本 |
+| 汽车零部件（发动机） | -- | H | - | 需求结构变化 |
+| 石油精炼 | - | M | VLO, PSX | 汽油需求减少 |
+
+---
+
+## 5. 按大宗商品冲击分类的矩阵
+
+### 原油价格飙升（$100+/桶）
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 石油巨头 | ++ | H | XOM, CVX, COP | 收益急增 |
+| 页岩企业 | ++ | H | PXD, EOG, DVN | 盈利能力大幅改善 |
+| 油田服务 | ++ | H | SLB, HAL, BKR | 钻探活动增加 |
+| 航空 | -- | H | DAL, UAL, AAL | 燃料成本急增 |
+| 运输 | -- | H | UPS, FDX | 燃料成本增加 |
+| 化工 | - | H | DOW, LYB | 原材料成本增加 |
+| 消费品 | - | M | 全部 | 消费者购买力下降 |
+
+### 原油价格暴跌（$50-/桶）
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 石油巨头 | -- | H | XOM, CVX, COP | 收益减少，资本开支削减 |
+| 页岩企业 | -- | H | PXD, EOG, DVN | 盈亏平衡风险 |
+| 航空 | ++ | H | DAL, UAL, AAL | 燃料成本减少 |
+| 消费品 | + | M | 全部 | 可支配收入增加 |
+| 化工 | + | M | DOW, LYB | 原材料成本减少 |
+
+### 黄金价格飙升
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 金矿股 | ++ | H | NEM, GOLD, AEM | 杠杆效应 |
+| 银矿股 | ++ | H | PAAS, AG, HL | 贵金属联动 |
+| 珠宝 | 0 | M | SIG, TIF | 需求下降与库存升值相抵消 |
+
+---
+
+## 6. 按经济周期分类的矩阵
+
+### 经济扩张期
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 科技 | ++ | H | AAPL, MSFT, NVDA | 企业IT投资增加 |
+| 非必需消费品 | ++ | H | AMZN, HD, NKE | 消费扩大 |
+| 工业 | ++ | H | CAT, DE, HON | 资本开支增加 |
+| 材料 | + | H | LIN, APD, FCX | 需求增加 |
+| 金融 | + | H | JPM, BAC, GS | 信贷扩张，并购活跃 |
+
+### 经济衰退期
+
+| 板块 | 影响 | 确信度 | 代表个股 | 备注 |
+|---------|------|--------|-----------|------|
+| 必需消费品 | + | H | PG, KO, WMT | 防御性 |
+| 医疗保健 | + | H | UNH, JNJ, PFE | 非可选支出 |
+| 公用事业 | + | H | NEE, DUK, SO | 稳定股息 |
+| 非必需消费品 | -- | H | AMZN, HD, NKE | 可选支出削减 |
+| 工业 | -- | H | CAT, DE, HON | 资本开支冻结 |
+| 金融 | - | H | JPM, BAC | 坏账增加担忧 |
+
+---
+
+## 使用方法
+
+1. **识别事件类型**：从标题判断事件类别
+2. **参考对应矩阵**：从上述中选择适当的矩阵
+3. **确认影响度和确信度**：把握各板块的影响
+4. **以代表个股为起点**：作为进一步深入分析的起点
+5. **复合情景参考多个矩阵**：涉及多个事件时整合多个矩阵
+
+## 注意事项
+
+- **个股情况**：板块影响和个股影响可能不同
+- **时机**：区分即时影响和滞后影响
+- **规模**：事件规模不同影响程度不同
+- **市场定价程度**：市场已定价时反应有限

package/.claude/skills/sector-analyst/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: sector-analyst
+description: This skill should be used when analyzing sector and industry performance charts to assess market positioning and rotation patterns. Use this skill when the user provides performance chart images (1-week or 1-month timeframes) for sectors or industries and requests market cycle assessment, sector rotation analysis, or strategic positioning recommendations based on performance data. All analysis and output are conducted in English.
+---
+
+# Sector Analyst
+
+## Overview
+
+This skill enables comprehensive analysis of sector and industry performance charts to identify market cycle positioning and predict likely rotation scenarios. The analysis combines observed performance data with established sector rotation principles to provide objective market assessment and probabilistic scenario forecasting.
+
+## When to Use This Skill
+
+Use this skill when:
+- User provides sector performance charts (typically 1-week and 1-month timeframes)
+- User provides industry performance charts showing relative performance data
+- User requests analysis of current market cycle positioning
+- User asks for sector rotation assessment or predictions
+- User needs probability-weighted scenarios for market positioning
+
+Example user requests:
+- "Analyze these sector performance charts and tell me where we are in the market cycle"
+- "Based on these performance charts, what sectors should outperform next?"
+- "What's the probability of a defensive rotation based on this data?"
+- "Review these sector and industry charts and provide scenario analysis"
+
+## Analysis Workflow
+
+Follow this structured workflow when analyzing sector/industry performance charts:
+
+### Step 1: Data Collection and Observation
+
+First, carefully examine all provided chart images to extract:
+- **Sector-level performance**: Identify which sectors (Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, etc.) are outperforming/underperforming
+- **Industry-level performance**: Note specific industries showing strength or weakness
+- **Timeframe comparison**: Compare 1-week vs 1-month performance to identify trend consistency or divergence
+- **Magnitude of moves**: Assess the size of relative performance differences
+- **Breadth of movement**: Determine if performance is concentrated or broad-based
+
+Think in English while analyzing the charts. Document specific numerical performance figures for key sectors and industries.
+
+### Step 2: Market Cycle Assessment
+
+Load the sector rotation knowledge base to inform analysis:
+- Read `references/sector_rotation.md` to access market cycle and sector rotation frameworks
+- Compare observed performance patterns against expected patterns for each cycle phase:
+  - Early Cycle Recovery
+  - Mid Cycle Expansion
+  - Late Cycle
+  - Recession
+
+Identify which cycle phase best matches current observations by:
+- Mapping outperforming sectors to typical cycle leaders
+- Mapping underperforming sectors to typical cycle laggards
+- Assessing consistency across multiple sectors
+- Evaluating alignment with defensive vs cyclical sector performance
+
+### Step 3: Current Situation Analysis
+
+Synthesize observations into an objective assessment:
+- State which market cycle phase current performance most closely resembles
+- Highlight supporting evidence (which sectors/industries confirm this view)
+- Note any contradictory signals or unusual patterns
+- Assess confidence level based on consistency of signals
+
+Use data-driven language and specific references to performance figures.
+
+### Step 4: Scenario Development
+
+Based on sector rotation principles and current positioning, develop 2-4 potential scenarios for the next phase:
+
+For each scenario:
+- Describe the market cycle transition
+- Identify which sectors would likely outperform
+- Identify which sectors would likely underperform
+- Specify the catalysts or conditions that would confirm this scenario
+- Assign a probability (see Probability Assessment Framework in sector_rotation.md)
+
+Scenarios should range from most likely (highest probability) to alternative/contrarian scenarios.
+
+### Step 5: Output Generation
+
+Create a structured Markdown document with the following sections:
+
+**Required Sections:**
+1. **Executive Summary**: 2-3 sentence overview of key findings
+2. **Current Situation**: Detailed analysis of current performance patterns and market cycle positioning
+3. **Supporting Evidence**: Specific sector and industry performance data supporting the cycle assessment
+4. **Scenario Analysis**: 2-4 scenarios with descriptions and probability assignments
+5. **Recommended Positioning**: Strategic and tactical positioning recommendations based on scenario probabilities
+6. **Key Risks**: Notable risks or contradictory signals to monitor
+
+## Output Format
+
+Save analysis results as a Markdown file with naming convention: `sector_analysis_YYYY-MM-DD.md`
+
+Use this structure:
+
+```markdown
+# Sector Performance Analysis - [Date]
+
+## Executive Summary
+
+[2-3 sentences summarizing key findings]
+
+## Current Situation
+
+### Market Cycle Assessment
+[Which cycle phase and why]
+
+### Performance Patterns Observed
+
+#### 1-Week Performance
+[Analysis of recent performance]
+
+#### 1-Month Performance
+[Analysis of medium-term trends]
+
+#### Sector-Level Analysis
+[Detailed breakdown by sector]
+
+#### Industry-Level Analysis
+[Notable industry-specific observations]
+
+## Supporting Evidence
+
+### Confirming Signals
+- [List data points supporting cycle assessment]
+
+### Contradictory Signals
+- [List any conflicting indicators]
+
+## Scenario Analysis
+
+### Scenario 1: [Name] (Probability: XX%)
+**Description**: [What happens]
+**Outperformers**: [Sectors/industries]
+**Underperformers**: [Sectors/industries]
+**Catalysts**: [What would confirm this scenario]
+
+### Scenario 2: [Name] (Probability: XX%)
+[Repeat structure]
+
+[Additional scenarios as appropriate]
+
+## Recommended Positioning
+
+### Strategic Positioning (Medium-term)
+[Sector allocation recommendations]
+
+### Tactical Positioning (Short-term)
+[Specific adjustments or opportunities]
+
+## Key Risks and Monitoring Points
+
+[What to watch that could invalidate the analysis]
+
+---
+*Analysis Date: [Date]*
+*Data Period: [Timeframe of charts analyzed]*
+```
+
+## Key Analysis Principles
+
+When conducting analysis:
+
+1. **Objectivity First**: Let the data guide conclusions, not preconceptions
+2. **Probabilistic Thinking**: Express uncertainty through probability ranges
+3. **Multiple Timeframes**: Compare 1-week and 1-month data for trend confirmation
+4. **Relative Performance**: Focus on relative strength, not absolute returns
+5. **Breadth Matters**: Broad-based moves are more significant than isolated movements
+6. **No Absolutes**: Markets rarely follow textbook patterns exactly
+7. **Historical Context**: Reference typical rotation patterns but acknowledge uniqueness
+
+## Probability Guidelines
+
+Apply these probability ranges based on evidence strength:
+
+- **70-85%**: Strong evidence with multiple confirming signals across sectors and timeframes
+- **50-70%**: Moderate evidence with some confirming signals but mixed indicators
+- **30-50%**: Weak evidence with limited or conflicting signals
+- **15-30%**: Speculative scenario contrary to current indicators but possible
+
+Total probabilities across all scenarios should sum to approximately 100%.
+
+## Resources
+
+### references/
+- `sector_rotation.md` - Comprehensive knowledge base covering market cycle phases, typical sector performance patterns, and probability assessment frameworks
+
+### assets/
+Sample charts demonstrating the expected input format:
+- `sector_performance.jpeg` - Example sector-level performance chart (1-week and 1-month)
+- `industory_performance_1.jpeg` - Example industry performance chart (outperformers)
+- `industory_performance_2.jpeg` - Example industry performance chart (underperformers)
+
+These samples illustrate the type of visual data this skill analyzes. User-provided charts may vary in format but should contain similar relative performance information.
+
+## Important Notes
+
+- All analysis thinking should be conducted in English
+- Output Markdown files must be in English
+- Reference the sector rotation knowledge base for each analysis
+- Maintain objectivity and avoid confirmation bias
+- Update probability assessments if new data becomes available
+- Charts typically show performance over 1-week and 1-month periods

package/.claude/skills/sector-analyst/references/sector_rotation.md

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+# Sector Rotation Knowledge Base
+
+## Market Cycle Framework
+
+The economic cycle can be divided into four primary phases, each characterized by distinct economic conditions and sector performance patterns.
+
+### 1. Early Cycle Recovery
+
+**Economic Characteristics:**
+- Economy begins recovering from recession
+- GDP growth accelerates from negative/low to positive
+- Interest rates remain low
+- Central banks maintain accommodative policy
+- Credit conditions begin to ease
+- Consumer and business confidence starts improving
+
+**Outperforming Sectors:**
+- **Technology**: Benefits from improving economic outlook and investment spending
+- **Consumer Cyclical/Discretionary**: Rebounds as consumer confidence returns
+- **Industrials**: Early beneficiary of economic recovery and capital spending
+- **Financials**: Benefits from steepening yield curve and improving credit conditions
+- **Real Estate**: Low interest rates support property valuations
+
+**Underperforming Sectors:**
+- **Utilities**: Low growth characteristics become less attractive
+- **Consumer Defensive/Staples**: Defensive qualities less valued in recovery
+- **Healthcare**: Stable growth profile less appealing in early recovery
+
+### 2. Mid Cycle Expansion
+
+**Economic Characteristics:**
+- Strong GDP growth continues
+- Corporate earnings growth robust
+- Employment gains accelerating
+- Interest rates begin rising from lows
+- Credit spreads narrow
+- Inflation remains moderate
+
+**Outperforming Sectors:**
+- **Technology**: Continued strong earnings growth
+- **Industrials**: Peak capital spending and economic activity
+- **Consumer Discretionary**: Strong consumer spending continues
+- **Materials**: Strong demand from construction and manufacturing
+- **Energy**: Rising economic activity drives energy demand
+
+**Underperforming Sectors:**
+- **Utilities**: Rising rates pressure valuations
+- **Consumer Staples**: Growth acceleration favors cyclical exposure
+- **Telecommunications**: Low growth profile less attractive
+
+### 3. Late Cycle
+
+**Economic Characteristics:**
+- GDP growth begins decelerating but remains positive
+- Interest rates peak or plateau at higher levels
+- Inflation pressures build
+- Labor markets tight, wage pressures increase
+- Credit conditions begin tightening
+- Economic indicators show signs of slowing
+
+**Outperforming Sectors:**
+- **Energy**: Benefits from inflation and commodity price strength
+- **Materials**: Inflation hedge characteristics
+- **Financials**: Higher interest rates support net interest margins
+- **Healthcare**: Defensive qualities become attractive as growth slows
+- **Consumer Staples**: Defensive positioning as uncertainty rises
+
+**Underperforming Sectors:**
+- **Technology**: High valuations pressured by rising rates
+- **Consumer Discretionary**: Weakening consumer confidence
+- **Real Estate**: High interest rates pressure valuations
+- **Industrials**: Capital spending begins to slow
+
+### 4. Recession
+
+**Economic Characteristics:**
+- GDP contracts (negative growth)
+- Rising unemployment
+- Interest rates cut by central banks
+- Credit spreads widen significantly
+- Corporate earnings decline
+- Consumer and business confidence deteriorate
+
+**Outperforming Sectors:**
+- **Utilities**: Defensive, stable cash flows attractive
+- **Consumer Staples**: Essential goods demand remains stable
+- **Healthcare**: Non-discretionary spending, defensive characteristics
+- **Telecommunications/Communication Services**: Stable revenue streams
+
+**Underperforming Sectors:**
+- **Financials**: Credit losses and economic stress
+- **Consumer Discretionary**: Discretionary spending cuts
+- **Industrials**: Sharp decline in capital spending
+- **Materials**: Demand destruction
+- **Energy**: Economic weakness reduces demand
+- **Real Estate**: Economic stress and potential defaults
+
+## Sector Characteristics Summary
+
+### Cyclical Sectors (Outperform in Early/Mid Cycle)
+- Technology
+- Consumer Discretionary
+- Industrials
+- Materials
+- Financials (with varying timing)
+- Energy (stronger in Mid/Late Cycle)
+
+### Defensive Sectors (Outperform in Late Cycle/Recession)
+- Utilities
+- Consumer Staples
+- Healthcare
+- Communication Services
+
+### Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors
+- **Benefit from Rising Rates**: Financials (banks)
+- **Hurt by Rising Rates**: Utilities, Real Estate, Technology (high growth)
+
+## Industry-Level Nuances
+
+Within each sector, industry-level performance can vary:
+
+### Technology Sector
+- **Early/Mid Cycle Leaders**: Software, Semiconductors, Hardware
+- **Late Cycle/Defensive**: IT Services, Enterprise Software (recurring revenue models)
+
+### Consumer Discretionary
+- **Early/Mid Cycle Leaders**: Auto Manufacturers, Homebuilders, Retail, Leisure
+- **More Resilient**: Education, Entertainment (streaming)
+
+### Financials
+- **Early Cycle**: Diversified Banks, Investment Banks
+- **Mid/Late Cycle**: Insurance, Asset Managers
+- **Recession Vulnerable**: Regional Banks, Consumer Finance
+
+### Industrials
+- **Early/Mid Cycle**: Construction, Machinery, Transportation
+- **More Defensive**: Aerospace & Defense, Waste Management
+
+### Healthcare
+- **Cyclical Elements**: Elective procedures, Medical Devices
+- **Defensive Elements**: Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare Plans, Hospitals
+
+### Materials
+- **Early/Mid Cycle**: Construction Materials, Chemicals
+- **Late Cycle/Inflation Hedge**: Precious Metals (Gold, Silver)
+
+## Key Analysis Principles
+
+1. **No Cycle is Identical**: While patterns repeat, timing and magnitude vary
+2. **Multiple Indicators**: Combine sector performance with economic indicators
+3. **Rotation is Gradual**: Transitions between cycles occur over months, not days
+4. **Relative Performance**: Focus on relative strength vs absolute returns
+5. **Leading vs Lagging**: Some sectors lead cycle transitions, others lag
+6. **Global Factors**: International economic conditions affect sector performance
+7. **Policy Impact**: Central bank and fiscal policy can accelerate or delay rotations
+
+## Probability Assessment Framework
+
+When assessing future scenarios, consider:
+
+- **Strong Evidence (70-85% probability)**: Multiple confirming indicators across sectors
+- **Moderate Evidence (50-70% probability)**: Some confirming signals but mixed data
+- **Weak Evidence (30-50% probability)**: Limited or conflicting signals
+- **Speculative (15-30% probability)**: Contrary to current indicators but possible
+
+Probabilities should reflect:
+- Consistency of sector rotation signals
+- Breadth of performance patterns
+- Alignment with economic indicators
+- Historical precedent strength

package/.claude/skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: stanley-druckenmiller-investment
+description: "Stanley Druckenmiller 投资顾问。基于30年无亏损、年化近30%回报的传奇投资家思维，提供宏观经济分析、风险管理、仓位构建、市场周期判断等实战指导。用于投资决策、市场分析、风险管理、组合构建等咨询。"
+user-invocable: true
+argument-hint: "市场分析主题或投资问题"
+---
+
+# Stanley Druckenmiller 投资顾问
+
+基于 Druckenmiller 的投资哲学和30年实战经验，提供实践性投资建议。
+
+## 核心投资原则
+
+- **集中投资与耐心**：每年等待1-2次绝佳机会，有确信时重仓出击
+- **资本保全**：「亏损50%需要100%的收益才能回本」——避免大幅亏损
+- **面向未来**：「不要投资现在，要投资18个月后的未来」
+- **流动性至上**：「驱动市场的不是企业盈利，而是央行和流动性」
+- **灵活应变**：发现错误时立即转向
+
+## 使用方法
+
+### 咨询类型
+
+1. **市场分析**
+   - 当前市场环境评估
+   - 18个月前瞻预测
+   - 投资机会识别
+
+2. **风险管理**
+   - 仓位规模决策
+   - 止损点设置
+   - 组合防御策略
+
+3. **投资策略**
+   - 入场时机判断
+   - 资产配置建议
+   - 市场周期判断
+
+### 参考资料
+
+深度分析和具体方法详见参考文件：
+
+- **投资哲学详解**：`references/investment-philosophy.md`
+  - 仓位构建、风险管理、熊市策略等
+- **市场分析方法**：`references/market-analysis-guide.md`
+  - 宏观经济分析、央行政策评估、资产配置决策等
+- **实战案例**：`references/case-studies.md`
+  - 历史成功案例、投资决策模式、实践应用等
+
+## 建议提供方式
+
+### 1. 从现状分析入手
+- 理解用户的投资目标和约束
+- 评估当前市场环境
+- 确认风险承受能力
+
+### 2. 提供 Druckenmiller 视角
+- 着眼18个月后的分析
+- 央行政策与流动性的影响
+- 指出与市场共识的偏差
+
+### 3. 给出具体行动指引
+- 基于确信度的仓位规模
+- 入场和出场条件
+- 具体风控措施
+
+### 4. 包含重要警示
+- 「看不清时不要出手」原则
+- 避免大幅亏损的重要性
+- 保持灵活性的必要性
+
+## 回答风格
+
+- **明确实用**：不仅讲理论，更给出具体行动指引
+- **风险意识**：始终考虑下行风险
+- **保持谦逊**：对市场保持敬畏
+- **灵活调整**：强调随形势变化进行修正
+
+## 注意事项
+
+1. **投资自负**：本建议仅供教育目的，投资决策由个人负责
+2. **不推荐个股**：聚焦于投资思维和分析方法
+3. **强调风险**：始终传达 Druckenmiller 强调的「资本保全」理念
+4. **考虑时代背景**：将历史经验在当代语境下解读