quantwise 1.2.0 → 1.2.2

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/skills/us-stock-analysis/references/financial-metrics.md

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+# Financial Metrics Reference
+
+## Profitability Metrics
+
+**Gross Profit Margin**
+- Formula: (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue × 100
+- Measures: Production efficiency and pricing power
+- Higher is better; compare to industry average
+
+**Operating Profit Margin**
+- Formula: Operating Income / Revenue × 100
+- Measures: Operational efficiency
+- Excludes financing and tax effects
+
+**Net Profit Margin**
+- Formula: Net Income / Revenue × 100
+- Measures: Overall profitability after all expenses
+- Bottom line efficiency
+
+**Return on Equity (ROE)**
+- Formula: Net Income / Shareholders' Equity × 100
+- Measures: Profitability relative to shareholder investment
+- DuPont Analysis: ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
+
+**Return on Assets (ROA)**
+- Formula: Net Income / Total Assets × 100
+- Measures: Efficiency in using assets to generate profit
+
+**Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)**
+- Formula: NOPAT / Invested Capital × 100
+- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Tax
+- Invested Capital = Total Debt + Total Equity - Cash
+- Measures: Return on all capital (debt + equity)
+
+## Valuation Metrics
+
+**Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**
+- Formula: Stock Price / Earnings Per Share
+- Trailing P/E: Uses past 12 months earnings
+- Forward P/E: Uses estimated future earnings
+- Interpretation: Higher P/E = higher growth expectations or overvaluation
+
+**Price-to-Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio**
+- Formula: P/E Ratio / Earnings Growth Rate
+- Interpretation: PEG < 1 potentially undervalued; PEG > 1 potentially overvalued
+
+**Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**
+- Formula: Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
+- Book Value = Total Assets - Total Liabilities
+- Useful for asset-heavy industries
+
+**Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio**
+- Formula: Market Cap / Total Revenue
+- Useful for unprofitable companies or comparing revenue multiples
+
+**Enterprise Value (EV)**
+- Formula: Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
+- Represents total company value
+
+**EV/EBITDA**
+- Formula: Enterprise Value / EBITDA
+- EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization
+- Capital structure neutral valuation metric
+
+**EV/Sales**
+- Formula: Enterprise Value / Revenue
+- Useful when comparing companies with different profitability
+
+**Dividend Yield**
+- Formula: Annual Dividend Per Share / Stock Price × 100
+- Measures: Income return from stock
+
+## Growth Metrics
+
+**Revenue Growth Rate**
+- Formula: (Current Revenue - Prior Revenue) / Prior Revenue × 100
+- YoY (Year-over-Year), QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter)
+
+**Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth**
+- Formula: (Current EPS - Prior EPS) / Prior EPS × 100
+- Track both reported and adjusted EPS
+
+**Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)**
+- Formula: (Ending Value / Beginning Value)^(1/Years) - 1
+- Smoothed growth rate over multiple years
+
+## Liquidity Metrics
+
+**Current Ratio**
+- Formula: Current Assets / Current Liabilities
+- Measures: Short-term liquidity
+- > 1.5 generally considered healthy
+
+**Quick Ratio (Acid-Test)**
+- Formula: (Current Assets - Inventory) / Current Liabilities
+- More conservative than current ratio
+- > 1.0 generally considered healthy
+
+**Cash Ratio**
+- Formula: Cash and Cash Equivalents / Current Liabilities
+- Most conservative liquidity measure
+
+## Leverage Metrics
+
+**Debt-to-Equity (D/E) Ratio**
+- Formula: Total Debt / Total Equity
+- Measures: Financial leverage
+- Industry-dependent; lower generally safer
+
+**Debt-to-Assets Ratio**
+- Formula: Total Debt / Total Assets
+- Shows proportion of assets financed by debt
+
+**Interest Coverage Ratio**
+- Formula: EBIT / Interest Expense
+- Measures: Ability to pay interest
+- > 2.5 generally considered safe
+
+## Efficiency Metrics
+
+**Asset Turnover**
+- Formula: Revenue / Average Total Assets
+- Measures: Efficiency in using assets to generate sales
+
+**Inventory Turnover**
+- Formula: COGS / Average Inventory
+- Higher = more efficient inventory management
+
+**Receivables Turnover**
+- Formula: Revenue / Average Accounts Receivable
+- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) = 365 / Receivables Turnover
+
+## Cash Flow Metrics
+
+**Free Cash Flow (FCF)**
+- Formula: Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
+- Available cash for dividends, buybacks, debt repayment
+
+**FCF Yield**
+- Formula: Free Cash Flow Per Share / Stock Price × 100
+- Similar to dividend yield but for total cash generation
+
+**Cash Conversion Rate**
+- Formula: Free Cash Flow / Net Income
+- Should be close to or > 100%
+- Lower ratio may indicate earnings quality issues
+
+## Per Share Metrics
+
+**Earnings Per Share (EPS)**
+- Formula: Net Income / Weighted Average Shares Outstanding
+- Basic EPS vs Diluted EPS (includes options, convertibles)
+
+**Book Value Per Share**
+- Formula: (Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares Outstanding
+
+**Cash Flow Per Share**
+- Formula: Operating Cash Flow / Shares Outstanding
+
+## Share Metrics
+
+**Shares Outstanding**
+- Total shares issued and held by investors
+- Track dilution over time
+
+**Float**
+- Shares available for public trading
+- Excludes insider and restricted shares
+
+**Share Buybacks**
+- Track net share reduction/increase
+- Buybacks can boost EPS without earnings growth

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/skills/us-stock-analysis/references/fundamental-analysis.md

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+# Fundamental Analysis Reference
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+### 1. Business Quality Assessment
+
+**Competitive Advantages (Moats)**
+- Brand strength
+- Network effects
+- Cost advantages
+- Switching costs
+- Patents and intellectual property
+- Regulatory barriers
+
+**Management Quality**
+- Track record of capital allocation
+- Insider ownership
+- Compensation structure alignment
+- Communication transparency
+
+**Business Model**
+- Revenue streams diversity
+- Scalability
+- Margin sustainability
+- Customer concentration risk
+
+### 2. Financial Health Analysis
+
+**Profitability Analysis**
+- Gross margin trends
+- Operating margin trends
+- Net margin trends
+- Return on Equity (ROE) trends
+- Return on Assets (ROA) trends
+- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) trends
+
+**Growth Analysis**
+- Revenue growth (YoY, QoQ)
+- Earnings growth (YoY, QoQ)
+- Free cash flow growth
+- Market share trends
+- Geographic/segment growth breakdown
+
+**Balance Sheet Strength**
+- Debt-to-Equity ratio
+- Current ratio
+- Quick ratio
+- Interest coverage ratio
+- Cash position vs debt
+- Working capital trends
+
+**Cash Flow Analysis**
+- Operating cash flow consistency
+- Free cash flow (OCF - CapEx)
+- Cash conversion rate
+- Capital expenditure trends
+- Dividend sustainability
+
+### 3. Valuation Analysis
+
+**Relative Valuation Metrics**
+- P/E ratio (vs historical, vs peers, vs sector)
+- Forward P/E
+- PEG ratio (P/E / growth rate)
+- P/B ratio (Price-to-Book)
+- P/S ratio (Price-to-Sales)
+- EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value / EBITDA)
+- EV/Sales
+
+**Absolute Valuation**
+- Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) principles
+- Estimate intrinsic value range
+- Margin of safety calculation
+
+### 4. Industry and Market Analysis
+
+**Industry Dynamics**
+- Industry growth rate
+- Industry lifecycle stage
+- Competitive landscape
+- Barriers to entry
+- Regulatory environment
+- Technological disruption risk
+
+**Market Position**
+- Market share
+- Competitive positioning
+- Customer loyalty metrics
+- Pricing power
+
+### 5. Risk Assessment
+
+**Company-Specific Risks**
+- Key person dependency
+- Customer concentration
+- Supplier concentration
+- Product concentration
+- Litigation risks
+- Regulatory risks
+
+**Market Risks**
+- Economic sensitivity
+- Interest rate sensitivity
+- Currency exposure
+- Commodity price exposure
+
+## Analysis Workflow
+
+1. **Understand the business** (what they do, how they make money)
+2. **Assess competitive position** (moats, market share)
+3. **Analyze financial statements** (trends over 3-5 years)
+4. **Calculate key metrics** (profitability, growth, leverage)
+5. **Compare to peers** (relative positioning)
+6. **Value the company** (multiple approaches)
+7. **Identify risks** (company and market level)
+8. **Determine investment thesis** (bull and bear cases)
+
+## Red Flags to Watch For
+
+- Declining margins
+- Consistently negative or declining free cash flow
+- Rising debt without revenue growth
+- Frequent non-GAAP adjustments
+- High executive turnover
+- Customer concentration > 10% from single customer
+- Inconsistent accounting changes
+- Poor cash conversion (earnings growth >> cash flow growth)
+- Deteriorating working capital
+- Rising accounts receivable/inventory faster than revenue

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/skills/us-stock-analysis/references/report-template.md

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+# Stock Analysis Report Template
+
+## Report Structure
+
+### 1. Executive Summary
+Brief 2-3 paragraph overview that can stand alone:
+- Company overview (1 sentence)
+- Investment thesis (bull case in 2-3 sentences)
+- Key risks (1-2 sentences)
+- Valuation summary (current vs fair value estimate)
+- Recommendation (Buy/Hold/Sell) with conviction level
+
+### 2. Company Overview
+- **Business Description**: What the company does, main products/services
+- **Industry**: Sector classification and industry dynamics
+- **Market Position**: Market cap, rank in industry
+- **Key Statistics**: Quick reference table
+  - Ticker, Exchange
+  - Market Cap
+  - Current Price
+  - 52-Week Range
+  - Average Volume
+
+### 3. Investment Thesis
+**Bull Case** (Why to invest):
+- 3-5 strongest positive factors
+- Support each with data/evidence
+- Quantify when possible
+
+**Bear Case** (Risks and concerns):
+- 3-5 main risk factors
+- Alternative scenarios where investment doesn't work
+- Probability assessment when possible
+
+### 4. Fundamental Analysis
+
+**Business Quality**
+- Competitive advantages/moats
+- Management quality assessment
+- Business model sustainability
+
+**Financial Performance** (Use tables for clarity)
+- Revenue trends (3-5 years)
+- Profitability metrics trends
+- Balance sheet strength
+- Cash flow analysis
+- Key ratios
+
+**Growth Analysis**
+- Historical growth rates
+- Growth drivers
+- Future growth prospects
+- Market opportunity size
+
+### 5. Valuation Analysis
+
+**Current Valuation Metrics** (Table format)
+- P/E (current, forward, 5-year avg)
+- PEG
+- P/B
+- P/S
+- EV/EBITDA
+- EV/Sales
+- Dividend Yield (if applicable)
+
+**Peer Comparison** (Table format)
+Compare key metrics against 3-5 direct competitors
+
+**Fair Value Estimate**
+- Valuation methodology used
+- Key assumptions
+- Fair value range (conservative to optimistic)
+- Margin of safety vs current price
+- Target price with timeframe
+
+### 6. Technical Analysis
+
+**Trend Analysis**
+- Current trend direction
+- Key support/resistance levels
+- Moving average positions
+
+**Indicator Summary**
+- RSI reading and interpretation
+- MACD status
+- Volume trends
+- Other relevant indicators
+
+**Chart Patterns**
+- Notable patterns forming or completed
+- Breakout/breakdown levels to watch
+
+**Technical Outlook**
+- Short-term (1-3 months)
+- Medium-term (3-6 months)
+
+### 7. Risk Assessment
+
+**Company-Specific Risks** (Prioritized)
+1. [Highest risk with impact and probability]
+2. [Second risk]
+3. [Third risk]
+
+**Market/Macro Risks**
+- Economic sensitivity
+- Interest rate impact
+- Regulatory changes
+- Industry disruption
+
+**Risk Mitigation**
+- Company's risk management
+- Diversification considerations
+- Position sizing recommendations
+
+### 8. Catalysts and Timeline
+
+**Positive Catalysts** (with expected timing)
+- Upcoming events that could drive price up
+- Product launches, earnings, regulatory approvals
+
+**Negative Risks** (with timing)
+- Events that could drive price down
+- Lockup expirations, debt maturities
+
+### 9. Recommendation
+
+**Rating**: Buy / Hold / Sell
+**Conviction Level**: High / Medium / Low
+**Target Price**: $XX (timeframe: X months)
+**Upside/Downside**: +/-XX%
+
+**For Buy Recommendations**:
+- Entry strategy (all at once, DCA, wait for pullback)
+- Position sizing suggestion
+- Stop-loss consideration
+- Target prices (multiple levels)
+
+**For Hold Recommendations**:
+- Conditions to upgrade to Buy
+- Conditions to downgrade to Sell
+- Monitoring priorities
+
+**For Sell Recommendations**:
+- Exit strategy (immediate, gradual)
+- Alternative investments to consider
+
+### 10. Conclusion
+- Summarize key points (3-4 bullets)
+- Reiterate recommendation
+- Next review date or monitoring triggers
+
+---
+
+## Formatting Guidelines
+
+**Use Tables for:**
+- Financial data comparisons
+- Peer comparisons
+- Key statistics
+- Valuation metrics
+
+**Use Bullet Points for:**
+- Lists of factors/risks
+- Key highlights
+- Qualitative assessments
+
+**Use Headers to:**
+- Clearly separate sections
+- Make report scannable
+- Enable quick navigation
+
+**Data Presentation:**
+- Always include timeframe context
+- Show trends (arrows, YoY%)
+- Cite sources for all data
+- Use consistent formatting (e.g., $B for billions)
+
+**Writing Style:**
+- Be direct and concise
+- Quantify when possible
+- Avoid jargon unless necessary
+- Support opinions with evidence
+- Balance bullish and bearish perspectives
+
+## Comparison Report Structure
+
+For "Compare Stock A vs Stock B" requests:
+
+### 1. Side-by-Side Overview Table
+Company metrics in columns for easy comparison
+
+### 2. Relative Strengths Analysis
+- Where each company excels
+- Quantified advantages
+
+### 3. Valuation Comparison
+- Metrics comparison table
+- Which appears cheaper and why
+
+### 4. Technical Comparison
+- Relative strength analysis
+- Chart pattern comparison
+
+### 5. Recommendation
+- Which to buy/prefer and why
+- Portfolio allocation suggestion
+- Risk-adjusted return assessment

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/skills/us-stock-analysis/references/technical-analysis.md

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+# Technical Analysis Reference
+
+## Key Technical Indicators
+
+### Trend Indicators
+
+**Moving Averages (MA)**
+- SMA (Simple Moving Average): Average price over N periods
+- EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Weighted towards recent prices
+- Common periods: 20-day, 50-day, 200-day
+- Golden Cross: 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA (bullish)
+- Death Cross: 50-day MA crosses below 200-day MA (bearish)
+
+**MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**
+- MACD Line: 12-day EMA - 26-day EMA
+- Signal Line: 9-day EMA of MACD
+- Histogram: MACD - Signal
+- Bullish: MACD crosses above signal line
+- Bearish: MACD crosses below signal line
+
+### Momentum Indicators
+
+**RSI (Relative Strength Index)**
+- Range: 0-100
+- Overbought: > 70
+- Oversold: < 30
+- Divergence: Price makes new high/low but RSI doesn't (reversal signal)
+
+**Stochastic Oscillator**
+- %K and %D lines
+- Range: 0-100
+- Overbought: > 80
+- Oversold: < 20
+
+### Volatility Indicators
+
+**Bollinger Bands**
+- Middle Band: 20-day SMA
+- Upper Band: Middle + (2 × standard deviation)
+- Lower Band: Middle - (2 × standard deviation)
+- Squeeze: Bands narrow (low volatility, potential breakout)
+- Expansion: Bands widen (high volatility)
+
+**ATR (Average True Range)**
+- Measures volatility
+- Higher ATR = higher volatility
+- Used for stop-loss placement
+
+### Volume Indicators
+
+**OBV (On-Balance Volume)**
+- Cumulative volume indicator
+- Rising OBV + rising price = strong uptrend
+- Divergence between OBV and price = potential reversal
+
+**Volume Moving Average**
+- Compare current volume to average
+- High volume breakout = stronger signal
+
+## Chart Patterns
+
+### Reversal Patterns
+- Head and Shoulders (bearish)
+- Inverse Head and Shoulders (bullish)
+- Double Top (bearish)
+- Double Bottom (bullish)
+
+### Continuation Patterns
+- Flags and Pennants
+- Triangles (ascending, descending, symmetrical)
+- Rectangles
+
+## Support and Resistance
+
+**Support**: Price level where buying pressure prevents further decline
+**Resistance**: Price level where selling pressure prevents further rise
+
+**Key Levels to Identify:**
+- Previous highs and lows
+- Round numbers (psychological levels)
+- Moving averages
+- Fibonacci retracement levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%)
+
+## Analysis Workflow
+
+1. **Identify the trend** (uptrend, downtrend, sideways)
+2. **Locate support/resistance levels**
+3. **Check multiple timeframes** (daily, weekly, monthly)
+4. **Confirm with indicators** (don't rely on single indicator)
+5. **Look for divergences** (price vs indicators)
+6. **Assess volume** (confirms trend strength)
+7. **Identify chart patterns**
+8. **Determine risk/reward ratio**

package/.mcp.json

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+{
+  "mcpServers": {}
+}