quantwise 1.2.0 → 1.2.2

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/.claude/skills/market-news-analyst/references/trusted_news_sources.md

@@ -0,0 +1,510 @@
+# Trusted News Sources for Market Analysis
+
+## Tier 1: Primary Sources (Highest Priority)
+
+### Central Banks and Government Agencies
+
+**Federal Reserve:**
+- FederalReserve.gov - FOMC statements, meeting minutes, economic projections
+- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) - St. Louis Fed database
+- Fed Chair speeches and testimonies
+
+**U.S. Treasury:**
+- Treasury.gov - Debt auctions, policy announcements
+- Treasury International Capital (TIC) data
+
+**Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):**
+- Employment reports (Non-Farm Payrolls)
+- CPI, PPI inflation data
+- Wage statistics
+
+**Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):**
+- GDP reports
+- Personal income and spending data
+- Trade balance
+
+**U.S. Census Bureau:**
+- Retail sales
+- Housing starts and permits
+- Durable goods orders
+
+**European Central Bank (ECB):**
+- ECB.europa.eu - Policy decisions, press conferences
+
+**Bank of Japan (BOJ):**
+- BOJ.or.jp - YCC policy, intervention signals
+
+**People's Bank of China (PBOC):**
+- English.pbc.gov.cn - LPR, RRR decisions
+
+**International Organizations:**
+- International Monetary Fund (IMF.org)
+- World Bank
+- Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
+
+### Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
+
+- SEC.gov/edgar - Corporate filings
+- 10-K/10-Q reports
+- 8-K material events
+- Form 4 insider trading
+- 13-F institutional holdings
+
+## Tier 2: Major Financial News Organizations
+
+### Bloomberg
+
+**Bloomberg.com / Bloomberg Terminal:**
+- Real-time market data
+- Breaking news (high speed)
+- Economic calendar
+- Company-specific news
+- Commodity market coverage
+
+**Strengths:**
+- Speed and accuracy
+- Terminal access for professionals
+- Global coverage
+- Proprietary data/analytics
+
+**Usage Notes:**
+- Subscription required for full access
+- Terminal news (FIRST) most timely
+- Search: "company earnings", "FOMC", "oil prices", "geopolitical"
+
+### Reuters
+
+**Reuters.com:**
+- Wire service speed
+- Global bureaus
+- Political and economic coverage
+- Commodities expertise
+
+**Strengths:**
+- Fact-based reporting
+- International reach
+- Breaking news accuracy
+- Energy/commodity specialization
+
+**Usage Notes:**
+- Search: "central bank", "earnings", "trade war", "sanctions"
+
+### Wall Street Journal (WSJ)
+
+**WSJ.com:**
+- In-depth analysis
+- Corporate investigations
+- Markets section excellent
+- Fed coverage authoritative
+
+**Strengths:**
+- Quality journalism
+- Source credibility
+- Business insights
+- Investigative depth
+
+**Usage Notes:**
+- Paywall (subscription needed)
+- Search markets, economy, tech sections
+- "Heard on the Street" column valuable
+
+### Financial Times (FT)
+
+**FT.com:**
+- European market focus
+- Global economics
+- Central bank coverage
+- Energy/commodities
+
+**Strengths:**
+- International perspective
+- ECB/BOE expertise
+- Emerging markets coverage
+- Quality analysis
+
+**Usage Notes:**
+- Paywall (subscription)
+- Search: "ECB", "emerging markets", "China economy"
+
+### CNBC
+
+**CNBC.com:**
+- Real-time market updates
+- CEO interviews
+- Trader perspectives
+- Options/derivatives coverage
+
+**Strengths:**
+- Market-moving headlines
+- Live coverage during trading hours
+- Accessible (free)
+- Video content
+
+**Usage Notes:**
+- Search: "breaking news", "earnings", "fed", sector-specific
+- "Squawk Box", "Closing Bell" segments notable
+
+### MarketWatch
+
+**MarketWatch.com:**
+- Retail investor focus
+- Market summaries
+- Economic calendar
+- Real-time quotes
+
+**Strengths:**
+- Accessible language
+- Free access
+- Market wrap coverage
+- Economic data releases
+
+### Barron's
+
+**Barrons.com:**
+- Weekend edition analysis
+- Stock picks and pans
+- Macro themes
+- Investor interviews
+
+**Strengths:**
+- Thoughtful analysis
+- Long-term perspective
+- Contrarian views
+- Technical analysis
+
+## Tier 3: Specialized Sources
+
+### Energy and Commodities
+
+**S&P Global Platts:**
+- Oil price assessments
+- Energy market data
+- Commodity analytics
+
+**Rigzone:**
+- Oil & gas industry news
+- Upstream/downstream coverage
+
+**Mining.com:**
+- Metals and mining news
+- Production data
+- M&A coverage
+
+**AgWeb / Farm Journal:**
+- Agricultural markets
+- Weather impacts
+- USDA data analysis
+
+### Technology
+
+**The Information:**
+- Tech industry scoops
+- Startup coverage
+- Big Tech investigations
+- Subscription investigative journalism
+
+**TechCrunch:**
+- Startup funding
+- Product launches
+- Tech M&A
+
+**Ars Technica:**
+- Deep technical analysis
+- Hardware/semiconductor coverage
+
+**AnandTech:**
+- Semiconductor deep dives
+- Chip architecture
+
+### Emerging Markets
+
+**Emerging Markets.com:**
+- EM debt and equity
+- Currency analysis
+- Political risk
+
+**Africa Report, LatAm Reports:**
+- Regional focus
+- Mining, agriculture coverage
+
+### China-Specific
+
+**Caixin Global:**
+- Independent Chinese business news
+- Economic data analysis
+- English language
+
+**South China Morning Post (SCMP):**
+- Hong Kong perspective
+- Greater China coverage
+- Business section
+
+**China Daily (State Media):**
+- Official government view
+- Policy direction signals
+- Use with awareness of bias
+
+### Cryptocurrency/Digital Assets
+
+**CoinDesk:**
+- Crypto market news
+- Regulatory developments
+- Blockchain technology
+
+**The Block:**
+- Crypto investigative journalism
+- Industry analysis
+
+## Tier 4: Analysis and Research
+
+### Independent Research
+
+**Strategas Research Partners:**
+- Washington policy analysis
+- Political impact on markets
+
+**BCA Research:**
+- Global macro strategy
+- Asset allocation
+
+**Gavekal Research:**
+- Macro analysis
+- China expertise
+
+### Central Bank Researchers
+
+**Federal Reserve Bank Publications:**
+- New York Fed (Liberty Street Economics blog)
+- San Francisco Fed (Economic Letter)
+- Cleveland Fed (Inflation expectations)
+
+### Think Tanks
+
+**Peterson Institute (PIIE):**
+- International economics
+- Trade policy
+
+**Brookings Institution:**
+- Economic policy research
+
+**Council on Foreign Relations (CFR):**
+- Geopolitical analysis
+
+## Search and Aggregation Tools
+
+### News Aggregators
+
+**Google Finance:**
+- Company-specific news aggregation
+- Stock screeners
+
+**Yahoo Finance:**
+- Free real-time quotes
+- News aggregation
+- Earnings calendar
+
+**Seeking Alpha:**
+- Crowdsourced analysis
+- Earnings call transcripts
+- Varied quality (user-generated)
+
+### Economic Calendars
+
+**Forex Factory:**
+- Economic event calendar
+- Impact ratings
+- Consensus estimates
+
+**Investing.com:**
+- Global economic calendar
+- Real-time data
+- Multi-asset coverage
+
+**TradingEconomics.com:**
+- Historical economic data
+- Forecasts
+- Country-specific
+
+## News Source Quality Assessment
+
+### Reliability Indicators
+
+**Positive Signals:**
+- Named sources
+- Corroborating reports from multiple outlets
+- Official statements/documents referenced
+- Transparent corrections policy
+- Separation of news and opinion
+
+**Red Flags:**
+- Anonymous sources only
+- Single-source stories
+- Sensational headlines mismatching content
+- Lack of verification
+- Ideological bias overwhelming facts
+
+### Speed vs. Accuracy Trade-off
+
+**Fastest (Use for Alerts, Verify Later):**
+- Bloomberg Terminal (FIRST function)
+- Reuters wire
+- Twitter/X (major news organizations' verified accounts)
+
+**Most Accurate (Use for Analysis):**
+- WSJ, FT investigative pieces
+- Official government data releases
+- SEC filings
+- Central bank statements
+
+**Balanced (Speed + Reliability):**
+- Bloomberg web
+- Reuters web
+- CNBC breaking news
+
+## Source Selection by News Type
+
+### Monetary Policy (Fed, ECB, BOJ)
+
+**Primary:**
+1. Central bank official websites
+2. WSJ Fed coverage
+3. Reuters central bank desk
+4. FT central banking section
+
+**Supplementary:**
+- Bloomberg central bank reporters (specific journalists)
+- CNBC live Fed coverage
+
+### Corporate Earnings
+
+**Primary:**
+1. Company press releases (IR websites)
+2. SEC filings (10-Q, 8-K)
+3. Bloomberg earnings coverage
+4. WSJ company coverage
+
+**Supplementary:**
+- Seeking Alpha transcripts
+- CNBC earnings alerts
+- MarketWatch summaries
+
+### Geopolitical Events
+
+**Primary:**
+1. Reuters international desk
+2. FT geopolitical coverage
+3. Bloomberg geopolitical news
+4. BBC (for initial breaking news)
+
+**Supplementary:**
+- CFR analysis (for context)
+- Energy-specific: Platts, Rigzone (if energy-related)
+
+### Commodity Markets
+
+**Primary:**
+1. Reuters commodity desk
+2. S&P Global Platts
+3. Bloomberg commodity coverage
+
+**Supplementary:**
+- Mining.com (metals)
+- AgWeb (agriculture)
+- Rigzone (energy)
+
+### Technology Sector
+
+**Primary:**
+1. Bloomberg tech
+2. WSJ tech section
+3. The Information (scoops)
+4. Reuters tech coverage
+
+**Supplementary:**
+- TechCrunch (startups)
+- Ars Technica (semiconductors)
+- Company blogs (for product launches)
+
+## Recommended News Search Strategy
+
+### For Comprehensive 10-Day Analysis
+
+**Day 1-2: Broad Search**
+- Search terms: "stock market", "federal reserve", "inflation", "oil prices", "earnings", "geopolitical"
+- Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ
+- Identify major themes
+
+**Day 3-5: Deep Dive on Major Events**
+- Identified themes: Search specific (e.g., "FOMC meeting", "NVIDIA earnings", "Israel conflict oil")
+- Sources: Add FT, CNBC, specialized (Platts for commodities)
+- Read original statements/filings when available
+
+**Day 6-7: Impact Analysis**
+- Market reaction search: "[Event] market reaction", "S&P 500 response", sector impacts
+- Sources: MarketWatch, Barron's, Seeking Alpha (for varied perspectives)
+- Analyst commentary
+
+**Day 8-10: Synthesis**
+- Connect dots between events
+- Look for contrary indicators
+- Verify facts across multiple sources
+
+### WebSearch Query Recommendations
+
+**For Recent News (Past 10 Days):**
+- "stock market news past week"
+- "FOMC meeting [current month]"
+- "major earnings reports [current month]"
+- "geopolitical events impacting markets [current month]"
+- "oil prices news last 10 days"
+- "Federal Reserve policy [current month]"
+
+**For Specific Events:**
+- "[Company] earnings [quarter] [year]"
+- "FOMC statement [date]"
+- "[Geopolitical event] commodity prices"
+- "[Country] central bank decision [date]"
+
+**For Market Reactions:**
+- "[Event] market reaction"
+- "S&P 500 [date] why"
+- "[Sector] stocks [event]"
+
+## Source Credibility Framework
+
+### Tier 1 (Official, Primary Sources):
+- Use for facts, data, official policy
+- No interpretation needed, direct information
+
+### Tier 2 (Major Financial Press):
+- Use for breaking news, broad coverage
+- Cross-check major scoops
+- Trust for market-moving headlines
+
+### Tier 3 (Specialized):
+- Use for domain-specific deep dives
+- Valuable for niche sectors
+- Supplement Tier 1 & 2
+
+### Tier 4 (Analysis):
+- Use for interpretation, context
+- Understand potential biases
+- Compare multiple viewpoints
+
+## Red Flag News Sources (Avoid or Use with Extreme Caution)
+
+- Unverified social media rumors
+- Clickbait financial sites
+- Pump-and-dump stock promoters
+- Anonymous blogs without editorial standards
+- News aggregators without source verification
+- AI-generated content farms (without human editorial)
+
+## Best Practices
+
+1. **Primary Source First**: Always seek official statements, filings, data releases
+2. **Multiple Confirmation**: Major news should appear in 2+ Tier 2 sources
+3. **Speed vs Accuracy**: Use fast sources for alerts, authoritative for analysis
+4. **Bias Awareness**: Understand each source's perspective (US-centric, China-focused, etc.)
+5. **Date Verification**: Ensure news is actually recent (past 10 days for this analysis)
+6. **Update Cycle**: Some news develops over days (FOMC speculation → decision → reaction)

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/.claude/skills/sector-analyst/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,206 @@
+---
+name: sector-analyst
+description: This skill should be used when analyzing sector and industry performance charts to assess market positioning and rotation patterns. Use this skill when the user provides performance chart images (1-week or 1-month timeframes) for sectors or industries and requests market cycle assessment, sector rotation analysis, or strategic positioning recommendations based on performance data. All analysis and output are conducted in English.
+---
+
+# Sector Analyst
+
+## Overview
+
+This skill enables comprehensive analysis of sector and industry performance charts to identify market cycle positioning and predict likely rotation scenarios. The analysis combines observed performance data with established sector rotation principles to provide objective market assessment and probabilistic scenario forecasting.
+
+## When to Use This Skill
+
+Use this skill when:
+- User provides sector performance charts (typically 1-week and 1-month timeframes)
+- User provides industry performance charts showing relative performance data
+- User requests analysis of current market cycle positioning
+- User asks for sector rotation assessment or predictions
+- User needs probability-weighted scenarios for market positioning
+
+Example user requests:
+- "Analyze these sector performance charts and tell me where we are in the market cycle"
+- "Based on these performance charts, what sectors should outperform next?"
+- "What's the probability of a defensive rotation based on this data?"
+- "Review these sector and industry charts and provide scenario analysis"
+
+## Analysis Workflow
+
+Follow this structured workflow when analyzing sector/industry performance charts:
+
+### Step 1: Data Collection and Observation
+
+First, carefully examine all provided chart images to extract:
+- **Sector-level performance**: Identify which sectors (Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, etc.) are outperforming/underperforming
+- **Industry-level performance**: Note specific industries showing strength or weakness
+- **Timeframe comparison**: Compare 1-week vs 1-month performance to identify trend consistency or divergence
+- **Magnitude of moves**: Assess the size of relative performance differences
+- **Breadth of movement**: Determine if performance is concentrated or broad-based
+
+Think in English while analyzing the charts. Document specific numerical performance figures for key sectors and industries.
+
+### Step 2: Market Cycle Assessment
+
+Load the sector rotation knowledge base to inform analysis:
+- Read `references/sector_rotation.md` to access market cycle and sector rotation frameworks
+- Compare observed performance patterns against expected patterns for each cycle phase:
+  - Early Cycle Recovery
+  - Mid Cycle Expansion
+  - Late Cycle
+  - Recession
+
+Identify which cycle phase best matches current observations by:
+- Mapping outperforming sectors to typical cycle leaders
+- Mapping underperforming sectors to typical cycle laggards
+- Assessing consistency across multiple sectors
+- Evaluating alignment with defensive vs cyclical sector performance
+
+### Step 3: Current Situation Analysis
+
+Synthesize observations into an objective assessment:
+- State which market cycle phase current performance most closely resembles
+- Highlight supporting evidence (which sectors/industries confirm this view)
+- Note any contradictory signals or unusual patterns
+- Assess confidence level based on consistency of signals
+
+Use data-driven language and specific references to performance figures.
+
+### Step 4: Scenario Development
+
+Based on sector rotation principles and current positioning, develop 2-4 potential scenarios for the next phase:
+
+For each scenario:
+- Describe the market cycle transition
+- Identify which sectors would likely outperform
+- Identify which sectors would likely underperform
+- Specify the catalysts or conditions that would confirm this scenario
+- Assign a probability (see Probability Assessment Framework in sector_rotation.md)
+
+Scenarios should range from most likely (highest probability) to alternative/contrarian scenarios.
+
+### Step 5: Output Generation
+
+Create a structured Markdown document with the following sections:
+
+**Required Sections:**
+1. **Executive Summary**: 2-3 sentence overview of key findings
+2. **Current Situation**: Detailed analysis of current performance patterns and market cycle positioning
+3. **Supporting Evidence**: Specific sector and industry performance data supporting the cycle assessment
+4. **Scenario Analysis**: 2-4 scenarios with descriptions and probability assignments
+5. **Recommended Positioning**: Strategic and tactical positioning recommendations based on scenario probabilities
+6. **Key Risks**: Notable risks or contradictory signals to monitor
+
+## Output Format
+
+Save analysis results as a Markdown file with naming convention: `sector_analysis_YYYY-MM-DD.md`
+
+Use this structure:
+
+```markdown
+# Sector Performance Analysis - [Date]
+
+## Executive Summary
+
+[2-3 sentences summarizing key findings]
+
+## Current Situation
+
+### Market Cycle Assessment
+[Which cycle phase and why]
+
+### Performance Patterns Observed
+
+#### 1-Week Performance
+[Analysis of recent performance]
+
+#### 1-Month Performance
+[Analysis of medium-term trends]
+
+#### Sector-Level Analysis
+[Detailed breakdown by sector]
+
+#### Industry-Level Analysis
+[Notable industry-specific observations]
+
+## Supporting Evidence
+
+### Confirming Signals
+- [List data points supporting cycle assessment]
+
+### Contradictory Signals
+- [List any conflicting indicators]
+
+## Scenario Analysis
+
+### Scenario 1: [Name] (Probability: XX%)
+**Description**: [What happens]
+**Outperformers**: [Sectors/industries]
+**Underperformers**: [Sectors/industries]
+**Catalysts**: [What would confirm this scenario]
+
+### Scenario 2: [Name] (Probability: XX%)
+[Repeat structure]
+
+[Additional scenarios as appropriate]
+
+## Recommended Positioning
+
+### Strategic Positioning (Medium-term)
+[Sector allocation recommendations]
+
+### Tactical Positioning (Short-term)
+[Specific adjustments or opportunities]
+
+## Key Risks and Monitoring Points
+
+[What to watch that could invalidate the analysis]
+
+---
+*Analysis Date: [Date]*
+*Data Period: [Timeframe of charts analyzed]*
+```
+
+## Key Analysis Principles
+
+When conducting analysis:
+
+1. **Objectivity First**: Let the data guide conclusions, not preconceptions
+2. **Probabilistic Thinking**: Express uncertainty through probability ranges
+3. **Multiple Timeframes**: Compare 1-week and 1-month data for trend confirmation
+4. **Relative Performance**: Focus on relative strength, not absolute returns
+5. **Breadth Matters**: Broad-based moves are more significant than isolated movements
+6. **No Absolutes**: Markets rarely follow textbook patterns exactly
+7. **Historical Context**: Reference typical rotation patterns but acknowledge uniqueness
+
+## Probability Guidelines
+
+Apply these probability ranges based on evidence strength:
+
+- **70-85%**: Strong evidence with multiple confirming signals across sectors and timeframes
+- **50-70%**: Moderate evidence with some confirming signals but mixed indicators
+- **30-50%**: Weak evidence with limited or conflicting signals
+- **15-30%**: Speculative scenario contrary to current indicators but possible
+
+Total probabilities across all scenarios should sum to approximately 100%.
+
+## Resources
+
+### references/
+- `sector_rotation.md` - Comprehensive knowledge base covering market cycle phases, typical sector performance patterns, and probability assessment frameworks
+
+### assets/
+Sample charts demonstrating the expected input format:
+- `sector_performance.jpeg` - Example sector-level performance chart (1-week and 1-month)
+- `industory_performance_1.jpeg` - Example industry performance chart (outperformers)
+- `industory_performance_2.jpeg` - Example industry performance chart (underperformers)
+
+These samples illustrate the type of visual data this skill analyzes. User-provided charts may vary in format but should contain similar relative performance information.
+
+## Important Notes
+
+- All analysis thinking should be conducted in English
+- Output Markdown files must be in English
+- Reference the sector rotation knowledge base for each analysis
+- Maintain objectivity and avoid confirmation bias
+- Update probability assessments if new data becomes available
+- Charts typically show performance over 1-week and 1-month periods