quantwise 1.2.0 → 1.2.2

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/skills/us-market-bubble-detector/references/bubble_framework.md

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+# Detailed Bubble Theory Framework
+
+## Table of Contents
+1. [Core Concept](#core-concept)
+2. [Minsky/Kindleberger Model](#minskykindleberger-model)
+3. [Behavioral Psychology Elements](#behavioral-psychology-elements)
+4. [Quantitative Indicators for Detection](#quantitative-indicators-for-detection)
+5. [Practical Response Strategies](#practical-response-strategies)
+
+---
+
+## Core Concept
+
+### The Essence of Bubbles: Social Norm Inversion Through Social Contagion
+
+True bubbles are determined not by **price levels** but by **the phase of crowd psychology**.
+
+#### Core Characteristics
+
+1. **Critical Information Cascade**
+   - Spread to all layers (including non-investors) is complete
+   - FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) becomes social norm
+   - Social cost of being skeptical is maximized
+
+2. **Social Calculation Inversion**
+   ```
+   Normal state: Conformity pressure < Value of independent judgment
+   Bubble state: Conformity pressure > Value of independent judgment
+   ```
+   Completion is near when "pain of not conforming < pain of holding contrarian views"
+
+3. **Institutionalized Confirmation Bias**
+   - Media, experts, and laypeople repeat the same narrative
+   - Counterevidence is ignored or excluded
+   - "This time is different" becomes the mantra
+
+### Signal Example: Taxi Driver Investment Talk
+
+Modern version of Joe Kennedy selling before the 1929 crash after hearing a shoeshine boy talk stocks.
+
+**Why this is a decisive signal:**
+- Information reaches the final tier = cascade complete
+- "Last buyer" cohort enters = demand exhaustion near
+- "Sure to profit" perception without expertise = peak risk ignorance
+
+---
+
+## Minsky/Kindleberger Model
+
+5-stage bubble progression model (Hyman Minsky / Charles Kindleberger)
+
+### 1. Displacement (Trigger)
+
+**Characteristics:**
+- Structural changes like new technology, institutional reform, monetary easing
+- Legitimate investment opportunities emerge
+- Rational price rises
+
+**Real Examples:**
+- 1990s: Internet revolution
+- 2010s: Mobile/cloud
+- 2020-21: Pandemic-response ultra-easing + remote work technology
+
+### 2. Boom (Expansion)
+
+**Characteristics:**
+- Self-reinforcing loop: price rise → media exposure → new participants → liquidity expansion
+- Positive expert views increase
+- Valuations high but "explainable by growth expectations"
+
+**Psychology:**
+- Availability bias: Success stories dominate
+- Herding: Even institutional investors feel pressure to join
+
+**Detection Indicators:**
+- Sustained trading volume increase
+- Accelerating new account openings
+- Annual returns in 75-90th percentile
+
+### 3. Euphoria (Exuberance)
+
+**Characteristics:**
+- Narrative becomes "common sense," dissent labeled "outdated"
+- Leverage increases (margin trading, futures, derivatives)
+- New issuances proliferate (IPO/ICO/SPAC)
+- Even low-quality stocks rally
+
+**Psychology:**
+- Overconfidence: "I'm special"
+- Confirmation bias: Accept only favorable information
+- Regret aversion: Overly fear "missing gains after selling"
+
+**Detection Indicators:**
+- VIX falls (risk dismissal)
+- Extreme Put/Call ratio bias
+- Margin balances at all-time highs
+- Proliferation of "XX-related" products
+
+### 4. Profit Taking (Exit Begins)
+
+**Characteristics:**
+- Early participants (smart money) begin taking profits
+- But crowd continues chasing with FOMO
+- Volatility (price fluctuation) increases
+
+**Psychological Divergence:**
+- Smart money: Loss aversion (prioritize securing gains)
+- Crowd: FOMO peaks ("don't miss out")
+
+**Detection Indicators:**
+- Volume surges + increased price swings
+- Insider selling increases
+- Short interest rises (sophisticated skepticism)
+
+### 5. Panic (Reversal)
+
+**Characteristics:**
+- Objective confirmation of trend breakdown (failure to make new highs, MA breaks)
+- Forced liquidations → liquidation cascade
+- Liquidity evaporates
+
+**Psychology:**
+- Loss aversion reverses: "don't want to realize loss" → "must avoid further loss by panic selling"
+- Herding reverses: buying crowd → selling crowd
+
+**Detection Indicators:**
+- Circuit breakers triggered
+- Chain of margin calls
+- Mark-to-market losses at all-time worst levels
+
+---
+
+## Behavioral Psychology Elements
+
+### 1. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
+
+**Mechanism:**
+- Social proof: "Everyone's buying → must be right"
+- Regret aversion: "regret of missing out" > "regret of losing money"
+
+**Bubble Condition:**
+FOMO elevates from individual psychology to **social norm** → non-conformity becomes professional/social risk
+
+### 2. Confirmation Bias
+
+**Bubble-Period Amplification:**
+- Media echo chambers
+- Social media algorithm filter bubbles
+- Expert conformity pressure (contrarianism = career risk)
+
+### 3. Overconfidence
+
+**Bubble-Period Characteristics:**
+- "Only I can sell at the top"
+- "This time is different"
+- Risk management neglect
+
+### 4. Dangerous Combination: Loss Aversion × Regret Aversion
+
+**Most Dangerous Phase:**
+Investors who experienced "rapid rise after early profit-taking"
+
+1. Take profit → price rises further → regret
+2. Re-enter → buy high → can't cut loss due to loss aversion
+3. Further rise → illusion of being "right" reinforces
+4. Miss exit when reversal comes
+
+---
+
+## Quantitative Indicators for Detection
+
+### Category 1: Social Penetration
+
+| Indicator | Data Source | Alert Threshold |
+|-----------|------------|----------------|
+| Google Search Trends | Google Trends API | 5x+ normal |
+| Social Media Mentions | Twitter/Reddit API | z-score > +3 |
+| New Account Openings | Brokerage data | 200%+ YoY |
+| Media Coverage | News APIs | Weekly article count 10x normal |
+
+### Category 2: Price Dynamics
+
+| Indicator | Calculation | Alert Threshold |
+|-----------|------------|----------------|
+| Annualized Return | Annualize 90-day return | Exceeds 95th percentile |
+| Price Acceleration | 2nd derivative sign and magnitude | Positive and increasing |
+| Volatility Skew | Put/Call ratio | < 0.5 (extreme optimism) |
+| Distance from 52W High | (Current - 52W High) / 52W High | Within -5%, clustering |
+
+### Category 3: Leverage & Positioning
+
+| Indicator | Data Source | Alert Threshold |
+|-----------|------------|----------------|
+| Margin Balance | FINRA | All-time high |
+| Mark-to-Market P&L | Exchange data | Extreme unrealized gains (reversal risk) |
+| Futures Positioning | CFTC COT | Speculators extremely long |
+| Funding Rate | Crypto exchanges | 50%+ annual sustained |
+
+### Category 4: New Issuance & Entry
+
+| Indicator | Data Source | Alert Threshold |
+|-----------|------------|----------------|
+| IPO Count | Renaissance IPO Index | 100%+ YoY |
+| SPAC Formation | SPAC statistics | 100+ per quarter |
+| Theme ETF Launches | ETF.com | 5+ "XX-related" per month |
+
+### Category 5: Valuation
+
+| Indicator | Calculation | Alert Threshold |
+|-----------|------------|----------------|
+| Shiller CAPE | P/E using 10-year real earnings average | >30 (historically high) |
+| Buffett Indicator | Market cap / GDP | >150% (overheating) |
+| Sector Divergence | Top sector vs bottom sector P/E difference | 3x+ gap |
+
+---
+
+## Practical Response Strategies
+
+### Offense: Profit-Taking Strategy
+
+#### 1. Mechanical Stair-Step Profit-Taking
+
+```
+Target Return    Profit %    Remaining Position
++20%             25%         75%
++40%             25%         50%
++60%             25%         25%
++80%             25%         0%
+```
+
+**Benefits:**
+- Eliminates psychological pressure
+- Mitigates "post-sale rise" regret
+- Guarantees partial profit capture
+
+#### 2. Time-Diversified Exit
+
+**NG Pattern:**
+Concentrate profit-taking on specific events (earnings, product launch, index inclusion)
+
+**Recommended:**
+- Sell 10% daily over 2 weeks
+- Distribute before/during/after events
+
+#### 3. Trailing Stop (Volatility-Adjusted)
+
+```python
+stop_price = current_price - (ATR × coefficient)
+# ATR: Average True Range (20-day average fluctuation)
+# Coefficient: 2.0 (normal), 1.5 (bubble zone, tightened)
+```
+
+### Defense: Risk Management
+
+#### 1. Pre-Determined Drawdown Tolerance
+
+```
+Expected Max DD    Position Size
+-10%               100% (full position)
+-20%               50%
+-30%               33%
+-40%               25%
+```
+
+#### 2. Risk Budget by Bubble Stage (REVISED v2.1)
+
+| Bubble Stage | Score | Total Risk Budget | New Entry | Stop Coefficient |
+|-------------|-------|------------------|-----------|-----------------|
+| Normal | 0-4 | 100% | Normal | 2.0 ATR |
+| Caution | 5-7 | 70-80% | 50% reduced | 1.8 ATR |
+| Elevated Risk | 8-9 | 50-70% | Selective | 1.6 ATR |
+| Euphoria | 10-12 | 40-50% | Stop | 1.5 ATR |
+| Critical | 13-15 | 20-30% | Stop | 1.2 ATR |
+
+**Key Changes in v2.1:**
+- Added "Elevated Risk" phase (8-9 points) for more granular risk management
+- Adjusted risk budgets to be less extreme at 9-point level
+- Maximum score reduced to 15 (Phase 2: 12 max, Phase 3: 3 max with strict criteria)
+
+#### 3. Short-Selling Timing (Critical)
+
+**NG Pattern:**
+- Early shorts based on subjective "too high"
+- Bubbles "last longer than expected" ("Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent")
+
+**Recommended Conditions (Composite):**
+1. Weekly chart shows clear lower highs
+2. Volume peaks out (enters declining trend)
+3. Funding rate drops sharply (crypto) / margin balance declines (stocks)
+4. Media/search trends peak out
+5. Weak stocks within sector start breaking down first
+
+Consider starting when minimum 3 conditions met.
+
+#### 4. Separate Cash Accounts
+
+- **Long-term investment account**: Buy & hold, dividend reinvestment, rebalancing only
+- **Trading account**: Short-term trading, bubble profit-taking, reversal shorts
+
+**Purpose:** Prevent decision confusion, maintain psychological stability
+
+### Practical Daily Checklist
+
+Check every morning before market open:
+
+- [ ] Update Bubble-O-Meter (score 8 indicators)
+- [ ] Update ATR trailing stops for held positions
+- [ ] Verify planned new entries are appropriate given bubble stage
+- [ ] Check for sudden media/social media trend changes
+- [ ] Confirm major indices' distance from 52-week highs
+- [ ] Check leverage indicators (margin balance, funding rate)
+- [ ] Check VIX level and Put/Call ratio
+- [ ] Check sector breadth (broad rally or selective)
+
+---
+
+## Summary: Golden Rules for Practice
+
+1. **"See process, not price"**
+   Evaluate bubbles not by levels but by crowd psychology phase transitions
+
+2. **"When taxi drivers talk stocks, exit"**
+   Last buyer cohort entry = demand exhaustion near
+
+3. **"'This time is different' is always the same"**
+   When "This time is different" becomes the mantra, be very cautious
+
+4. **"Mechanical rules protect psychology"**
+   When conformity pressure peaks, strict adherence to pre-determined rules is lifeline
+
+5. **"Short after confirmation, take profits early"**
+   Bubble collapses come late but suddenly. Contrarian shorts dangerous. Profits mechanically.
+
+6. **"When skepticism hurts, the end begins"**
+   The moment social cost exceeds independent judgment is the critical point

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/skills/us-market-bubble-detector/references/historical_cases.md

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+# Historical Bubble Cases and Pattern Analysis
+
+## Table of Contents
+1. [Late 1990s: Dotcom Bubble](#dotcom-bubble)
+2. [Late 2017: Crypto Bubble](#crypto-bubble)
+3. [2020-21: Pandemic Bubble Complex](#pandemic-bubble)
+4. [Common Patterns and Lessons](#common-patterns)
+
+---
+
+## Dotcom Bubble (1995-2000)
+
+### Timeline
+
+**1995-1997: Displacement (Trigger)**
+- Netscape IPO (August 1995): More than doubled on first day
+- Internet penetration: US 5% → 20%
+- Legitimate technological innovation and investment opportunities
+
+**1998-Early 1999: Boom (Expansion)**
+- NASDAQ 100: Sustained +40% annual growth
+- Adding ".com" to name alone drove stock prices up ("the .com effect")
+- IPO first-day returns averaged +70%
+
+**Late 1999-March 2000: Euphoria (Exuberance)**
+- "Old Economy vs New Economy" binary opposition
+- "Clicks vs Bricks" (online is invincible)
+- Valuation metrics ignored: "P/E is outdated"
+
+**March 10, 2000: Peak (NASDAQ 5,048.62)**
+
+**March 2000-October 2002: Panic & Crash**
+- NASDAQ: -78% (5,048 → 1,114)
+- Many bankruptcies: Pets.com, Webvan, eToys, etc.
+
+### Bubble-O-Meter Score Estimate (March 2000)
+
+| Indicator | Score | Rationale |
+|-----------|-------|-----------|
+| Mass Penetration | 2 | Family/friends entering "day trading" |
+| Media Saturation | 2 | Time magazine cover "Amazon.com", CNBC ratings surge |
+| New Entrants | 2 | Online brokerage accounts +300% YoY |
+| Issuance Flood | 2 | 457 IPOs (1999), many low-quality |
+| Leverage | 1 | Margin trading increased, but not to mortgage levels |
+| Price Acceleration | 2 | NASDAQ +85% annual (1999) |
+| Valuation Disconnect | 2 | "Profits unnecessary, only revenue growth matters" |
+| Correlation & Breadth | 2 | Even unprofitable companies rallying, no quality selection |
+
+**Total: 15/16 points (Critical Zone)**
+
+### Lessons
+
+1. **The Magic of the ".com" Suffix**
+   Name change alone drove +50%+ stock price gains (e.g., Zapata → Zap.com)
+
+2. **IPO Mania Danger**
+   First-day returns of +100%+ becoming normal = abnormal demand overheating
+
+3. **"Growth Without Profits" Limits**
+   Many "Get Big Fast" strategies failed, ignoring cash flow consequences
+
+4. **Fed Rate Hikes as Trigger**
+   Consecutive rate hikes 1999-2000 → funding cost rise → valuation justification impossible
+
+---
+
+## Crypto Bubble (2017)
+
+### Timeline
+
+**2016-Early 2017: Displacement & Boom**
+- Bitcoin: $1,000 → $3,000 (June 2017)
+- Emergence of ICO (Initial Coin Offering)
+- Rise of altcoins like Ethereum, Ripple
+
+**August-November 2017: Accelerating Boom**
+- Bitcoin: $3,000 → $10,000
+- Coinbase app #1 on US App Store
+- "Blockchain revolution" narrative spreads
+
+**December 2017: Euphoria Peak**
+- Bitcoin: $10,000 → $19,783 (December 17 peak)
+- **Taxi drivers preaching crypto** (iconic episode from text)
+- University lectures producing "instant experts"
+- Family gatherings dominated by investment talk
+
+**December 18, 2017-December 2018: Crash**
+- Bitcoin: $19,783 → $3,200 (-84%)
+- ICO scams exposed, regulatory crackdown
+
+### Bubble-O-Meter Score Estimate (Mid-December 2017)
+
+| Indicator | Score | Rationale |
+|-----------|-------|-----------|
+| Mass Penetration | 2 | Taxi drivers, grandparents asserting "must buy" |
+| Media Saturation | 2 | Google searches for "Bitcoin" at all-time high, daily CNBC specials |
+| New Entrants | 2 | Coinbase new accounts exceeding 300k/day |
+| Issuance Flood | 2 | 966 ICOs (2017), majority fraudulent |
+| Leverage | 2 | 100x leverage trading on BitMEX etc. surging |
+| Price Acceleration | 2 | Doubled in one month ($10k→$20k), acceleration positive and increasing |
+| Valuation Disconnect | 2 | "Digital gold," "end of fiat currency" narratives dominant |
+| Correlation & Breadth | 2 | Even obscure altcoins +1000%+ |
+
+**Total: 16/16 points (Critical Zone - Perfect Score)**
+
+### Lessons
+
+1. **"Most Dangerous Phase: Rapid Rise After Selling"**
+   Example from text: Took profit at $8k→$13k → 10 days later approaching $20k → regret and re-entry impulse
+
+2. **Leverage Destructive Power**
+   100x leverage = total loss on 5% adverse move, liquidation cascade accelerates crash
+
+3. **ICO Scam Proliferation**
+   Raised billions with only whitepapers → many absconded
+
+4. **Regulatory Risk Underestimation**
+   "Impossible to regulate" narrative → collapse when China/Korea closed exchanges
+
+---
+
+## Pandemic Bubble (2020-2021)
+
+### Timeline
+
+**March-June 2020: Displacement**
+- COVID-19 panic → historic monetary easing
+- Fed asset purchases, zero rates, fiscal support
+- "TINA" (There Is No Alternative): No investment alternative to stocks
+
+**July 2020-Early 2021: Boom**
+- NASDAQ 100: +50% (2020 full year)
+- Work-from-home/DX stocks lead (Zoom, Peloton, Shopify)
+- Robinhood account openings surge, "Stonks" meme culture
+
+**Early 2021: Euphoria**
+- Meme stocks (GME, AMC) wild swings
+- SPAC boom (Q1 2021: 298 formations)
+- NFT mania (Beeple artwork $69M, "Bored Ape" etc.)
+- Crypto resurgence (BTC $64k, "DeFi Summer")
+
+**November 2021: Peak (NASDAQ 16,057)**
+
+**2022: Reversal**
+- Fed hawkish pivot (inflation response)
+- Interest rate rises → growth stock plunge
+- NASDAQ: -33% (2022 full year)
+- Crypto bubble collapse (Luna, FTX failures)
+
+### Bubble-O-Meter Score Estimate (November 2021)
+
+| Indicator | Score | Rationale |
+|-----------|-------|-----------|
+| Mass Penetration | 2 | WallStreetBets, TikTok investment influencers proliferating |
+| Media Saturation | 2 | CNBC ratings surge, housewife investment specials |
+| New Entrants | 2 | Young demographic accounts 3x on Robinhood etc. |
+| Issuance Flood | 2 | 613 SPACs (2021 full year), many low-quality |
+| Leverage | 1 | Individual options trading surged, but not excessive mortgage levels |
+| Price Acceleration | 2 | Numerous growth stocks +100%+ annual |
+| Valuation Disconnect | 2 | Extreme DCF assuming "zero discount rate," profit ignored |
+| Correlation & Breadth | 1 | Concentrated in FAANG etc., not broad rally |
+
+**Total: 14/16 points (Critical Zone)**
+
+### Special Factors
+
+1. **Composite Bubble**
+   Stocks, crypto, NFTs, SPACs simultaneously erupting, capital swirling
+
+2. **Memeification**
+   Investment decisions shift from "fundamentals" to "memes" and "community" (GME, DOGE)
+
+3. **Zero-Rate Side Effects**
+   "Risk-free rate = 0" → illusion that theoretical price of all assets approaches ∞
+
+### Lessons
+
+1. **End of Monetary Easing = Bubble Collapse Trigger**
+   Reversal moment Fed turned hawkish (November 2021)
+
+2. **Multi-Asset Simultaneous Bubbles Amplify Danger**
+   Correlation approaches 1.0 → diversification benefit vanishes
+
+3. **Meme Investment Limits**
+   Short-term crowd frenzy unsustainable, fundamental reversion inevitable
+
+---
+
+## Common Patterns
+
+### Pattern 1: Trigger Always "Monetary Policy Shift"
+
+| Bubble | Peak Timing | Policy Shift | Time Lag |
+|--------|------------|--------------|----------|
+| Dotcom | March 2000 | Fed rate hikes (1999-2000) | Immediate |
+| Crypto 2017 | December 2017 | China regulatory crackdown | 1 month |
+| Pandemic | November 2021 | Fed hawkish signal | Immediate |
+
+### Pattern 2: Bubble Stage Time Allocation
+
+```
+Typical Bubble Cycle (total 18-36 months):
+Displacement:   20% of duration (tech innovation, policy change)
+Boom:           40% of duration (rational expansion)
+Euphoria:       30% of duration (exuberance)
+Profit Taking:  5% of duration (caution period)
+Panic:          5% of duration (crash)
+```
+
+**Important:** Euphoria occupies 1/3 of total = source of "lasts too long" impression
+
+### Pattern 3: Staged Social Penetration Expansion
+
+```
+Phase 1: Experts, early adopters (institutional investors, tech enthusiasts)
+    ↓ 1-2 years
+Phase 2: Educated class, white-collar workers (doctors, lawyers, salarymen)
+    ↓ 6-12 months
+Phase 3: General public (taxi drivers, housewives, students)
+    ↓ 1-3 months
+Peak reached
+```
+
+**Lesson:** When Phase 3 detected, 1-3 months remaining
+
+### Pattern 4: Media Role
+
+**Boom Period:**
+- Cautiously optimistic "expert views"
+- Risks also mentioned
+
+**Euphoria Period:**
+- FOMO incitement: "Don't miss out"
+- Over-exposure of success stories
+- Risk warners labeled "outdated"
+
+**Panic Period:**
+- Flip to pessimism
+- "Who's to blame" witch hunt
+
+### Pattern 5: Price Patterns
+
+**Uptrend:**
+```
+Stage 1: Gradual rise (+15-25% annual)
+Stage 2: Acceleration (+40-60% annual)
+Stage 3: Parabolic (100%+ in months)
+         ↑ Public entry here
+```
+
+**Downtrend:**
+```
+Stage 1: Correction (-10-15%) → "buying opportunity" perception
+Stage 2: Failed bounce, double top forms
+Stage 3: Collapse (-50%+) → Panic
+```
+
+### Pattern 6: "This Time Is Different" Excuse Patterns
+
+| Bubble | "This Time Is Different" Reason | Reality |
+|--------|--------------------------------|---------|
+| Dotcom | Internet revolution, Old Economy over | Growth without profits unsustainable |
+| Housing 2008 | Housing prices never fall, securitization spreads risk | Subprime collapse |
+| Crypto 2017 | End of fiat, governments can't regulate | Regulatory crackdown causes crash |
+| Pandemic | Infinite QE, perpetual zero rates, no inflation | Inflation surge → tightening |
+
+**Lesson:** When "this time is different" becomes the mantra, historical repetition is near
+
+---
+
+## Application to Practice
+
+### Case Study: Ideal Response During 2017 Crypto Bubble
+
+**Premise:** Purchased Bitcoin in January 2017 at $1k with $1,000
+
+**Actual Price Progression:**
+- June: $3k (+200%)
+- August: $5k (+400%)
+- November: $10k (+900%)
+- December 17: $19.8k (+1,880%, peak)
+- December 2018: $3.2k (-84% from peak)
+
+#### Scenario A: "Perfect Timing" Illusion (Impossible to Execute)
+
+Sell everything at $19.8k = $19,800 profit
+
+**Problem:** Cannot predict peak in advance, pure luck
+
+#### Scenario B: Stair-Step Profit-Taking (Executable)
+
+```
+$3k   → Sell 25% = $750 (remaining $2,250 invested)
+$5k   → Sell 25% = $1,250 (remaining $1,500 invested)
+$10k  → Sell 25% = $2,500 (remaining $750 invested)
+$15k  → Sell 25% = $3,750 (position fully closed)
+```
+
+**Total Profit:** $8,250
+**vs Peak:** 42% (less than half of perfect)
+**But:** Reliably executable, psychologically stable
+
+#### Scenario C: ATR Trailing Stop (Executable + Upside Capture)
+
+- Early December 2017, ATR (20-day) ≈ $1,500
+- Using coefficient 1.5: Stop = $10,000 - ($1,500 × 1.5) = $7,750
+- December 17 peak $19,800 → Stop updated: $19,800 - $2,250 = $17,550
+- Decline starts → Sell all at $17,550
+
+**Total Profit:** $16,550 (-11% from peak exit)
+**Benefits:** Maximum upside capture, early decline exit
+
+### Integrated Lessons
+
+1. **Abandon "Perfection"**
+   Peak selling impossible. Aim for "satisfaction" with stair-step profit-taking
+
+2. **Mechanical Rule Superiority**
+   ATR trailing eliminates emotion, exits early in bubble collapse
+
+3. **Flexibility by Bubble Stage**
+   - Boom period: Stair-step profit-taking (conservative)
+   - Euphoria period: ATR trailing (aggressive)
+   - Panic signs: Immediate exit (defensive)
+
+4. **Managing Post-Hoc Regret**
+   Evaluation criterion: "secure profit capture" not "could have made more"