quantwise 1.2.0 → 1.2.2

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/.claude/skills/technical-analyst/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: technical-analyst
+description: This skill should be used when analyzing weekly price charts for stocks, stock indices, cryptocurrencies, or forex pairs. Use this skill when the user provides chart images and requests technical analysis, trend identification, support/resistance levels, scenario planning, or probability assessments based purely on chart data without consideration of news or fundamental factors.
+---
+
+# Technical Analyst
+
+## Overview
+
+This skill enables comprehensive technical analysis of weekly price charts. Analyze chart images to identify trends, support and resistance levels, moving average relationships, volume patterns, and develop probabilistic scenarios for future price movement. All analysis is conducted objectively using only chart data, without influence from news, fundamentals, or market sentiment.
+
+## Core Principles
+
+1. **Pure Chart Analysis**: Base all conclusions exclusively on technical data visible in the chart
+2. **Systematic Approach**: Follow a structured methodology for each chart analysis
+3. **Objective Assessment**: Avoid subjective bias; focus on observable patterns and data
+4. **Probabilistic Scenarios**: Express future possibilities as probability-weighted scenarios
+5. **Sequential Processing**: Analyze each chart individually and document findings immediately
+
+## Analysis Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Receive Chart Images
+
+When the user provides one or more weekly chart images for analysis:
+
+1. Confirm receipt of all chart images
+2. Identify the number of charts to analyze
+3. Note any specific focus areas requested by the user
+4. Proceed to analyze charts sequentially, one at a time
+
+### Step 2: Load Technical Analysis Framework
+
+Before beginning analysis, read the comprehensive technical analysis methodology:
+
+```
+Read: references/technical_analysis_framework.md
+```
+
+This reference contains detailed guidance on:
+- Trend analysis and classification
+- Support and resistance identification
+- Moving average interpretation
+- Volume analysis
+- Chart patterns and candlestick analysis
+- Scenario development and probability assignment
+- Analysis discipline and objectivity
+
+### Step 3: Analyze Each Chart Systematically
+
+For each chart image, conduct a systematic analysis following this sequence:
+
+#### 3.1 Trend Analysis
+- Identify trend direction (uptrend, downtrend, sideways)
+- Assess trend strength (strong, moderate, weak)
+- Note trend duration and potential exhaustion signals
+- Examine higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows pattern
+
+#### 3.2 Support and Resistance Analysis
+- Mark significant horizontal support levels
+- Mark significant horizontal resistance levels
+- Identify trendline support/resistance
+- Note any support-resistance role reversals
+- Assess confluence zones where multiple S/R levels align
+
+#### 3.3 Moving Average Analysis
+- Determine price position relative to 20-week, 50-week, and 200-week MAs
+- Assess MA alignment (bullish, bearish, or neutral configuration)
+- Note MA slope (rising, falling, flat)
+- Identify any recent or pending MA crossovers
+- Observe MAs acting as dynamic support or resistance
+
+#### 3.4 Volume Analysis
+- Assess overall volume trend (increasing, decreasing, stable)
+- Identify volume spikes and their context (at support/resistance, on breakouts)
+- Check for volume confirmation or divergence with price
+- Note any volume climax or exhaustion patterns
+
+#### 3.5 Chart Patterns and Price Action
+- Identify any reversal patterns (hammers, shooting stars, engulfing patterns, etc.)
+- Identify any continuation patterns (flags, triangles, etc.)
+- Note significant candlestick formations
+- Observe recent breakouts or breakdowns
+
+#### 3.6 Synthesize Observations
+- Integrate all technical elements into coherent current assessment
+- Identify the most significant factors influencing the chart
+- Note any conflicting signals or ambiguity
+- Establish key levels that will determine future direction
+
+### Step 4: Develop Probabilistic Scenarios
+
+For each analyzed chart, create 2-4 distinct scenarios for future price movement:
+
+#### Scenario Structure
+
+Each scenario must include:
+1. **Scenario Name**: Clear, descriptive title (e.g., "Bull Case: Breakout Above Resistance")
+2. **Probability Estimate**: Percentage likelihood based on technical factors (must sum to 100% across all scenarios)
+3. **Description**: What this scenario entails and how it would unfold
+4. **Supporting Factors**: Technical evidence supporting this scenario (minimum 2-3 factors)
+5. **Target Levels**: Expected price levels if scenario plays out
+6. **Invalidation Level**: Specific price level that would negate this scenario
+
+#### Typical Scenario Framework
+
+- **Base Case Scenario (40-60%)**: Most likely outcome based on current structure
+- **Bull Case Scenario (20-40%)**: Optimistic scenario requiring upside breakout
+- **Bear Case Scenario (20-40%)**: Pessimistic scenario requiring downside breakdown
+- **Alternative Scenario (5-15%)**: Lower probability but technically plausible outcome
+
+Adjust probabilities based on strength of supporting technical factors. Ensure probabilities are realistic and sum to 100%.
+
+### Step 5: Generate Analysis Report
+
+For each chart analyzed, create a comprehensive markdown report using the template structure:
+
+```
+Read and use as template: assets/analysis_template.md
+```
+
+The report must include all sections:
+1. Chart Overview
+2. Trend Analysis
+3. Support and Resistance Levels
+4. Moving Average Analysis
+5. Volume Analysis
+6. Chart Patterns and Price Action
+7. Current Market Assessment
+8. Scenario Analysis (2-4 scenarios with probabilities)
+9. Summary
+10. Disclaimer
+
+**File Naming Convention**: Save each analysis as `[SYMBOL]_technical_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
+
+Example: `SPY_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md`
+
+### Step 6: Repeat for Multiple Charts
+
+If multiple charts are provided:
+
+1. Complete the full analysis workflow (Steps 3-5) for the first chart
+2. Save the analysis report
+3. Proceed to the next chart
+4. Repeat until all charts have been analyzed and documented
+
+Do not batch analyses. Complete and save each report before moving to the next chart.
+
+## Quality Standards
+
+### Objectivity Requirements
+
+- Base all analysis strictly on observable chart data
+- Avoid incorporating external information (news, fundamentals, sentiment)
+- Do not use subjective language like "I think" or "I feel"
+- Express uncertainty clearly when signals are ambiguous
+- Present both bullish and bearish possibilities to avoid confirmation bias
+
+### Completeness Requirements
+
+- Address all sections of the analysis template
+- Provide specific price levels for support, resistance, and targets
+- Justify probability estimates with technical factors
+- Include invalidation levels for each scenario
+- Note any limitations or caveats to the analysis
+
+### Clarity Requirements
+
+- Use precise technical terminology correctly
+- Write in clear, professional language
+- Structure information logically
+- Include specific price levels (not vague descriptions)
+- Make scenarios distinct and mutually exclusive
+
+## Example Usage Scenarios
+
+**Example 1: Single Chart Analysis**
+```
+User: "Please analyze this weekly chart of the S&P 500"
+[Provides chart image]
+
+Analyst:
+1. Confirms receipt of chart image
+2. Reads technical_analysis_framework.md for methodology
+3. Conducts systematic analysis (trend, S/R, MA, volume, patterns)
+4. Develops 3 scenarios with probabilities (e.g., 55% bullish continuation, 30% consolidation, 15% reversal)
+5. Generates comprehensive analysis report using template
+6. Saves as SPY_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md
+```
+
+**Example 2: Multiple Chart Analysis**
+```
+User: "Analyze these three charts: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Nasdaq"
+[Provides 3 chart images]
+
+Analyst:
+1. Confirms receipt of 3 charts
+2. Reads technical_analysis_framework.md
+3. Analyzes Bitcoin chart completely → Generates report → Saves as BTC_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md
+4. Analyzes Ethereum chart completely → Generates report → Saves as ETH_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md
+5. Analyzes Nasdaq chart completely → Generates report → Saves as NDX_technical_analysis_2025-11-02.md
+6. Notifies user that all three analyses are complete
+```
+
+**Example 3: Focused Analysis Request**
+```
+User: "I'm particularly interested in whether this stock will break above resistance. Analyze the chart."
+[Provides chart image]
+
+Analyst:
+1. Conducts full systematic analysis
+2. Pays special attention to resistance levels and breakout probability
+3. Develops scenarios with emphasis on breakout vs. rejection possibilities
+4. Assigns probabilities based on volume, trend strength, and proximity to resistance
+5. Generates complete report with focused scenario analysis
+```
+
+## Resources
+
+This skill includes the following bundled resources:
+
+### references/technical_analysis_framework.md
+
+Comprehensive methodology for technical analysis including:
+- Trend analysis criteria and classification
+- Support and resistance identification techniques
+- Moving average interpretation guidelines
+- Volume analysis principles
+- Chart pattern recognition
+- Scenario development and probability assignment framework
+- Objectivity and discipline reminders
+
+**Usage**: Read this file before conducting analysis to ensure systematic, objective approach.
+
+### assets/analysis_template.md
+
+Structured template for technical analysis reports with all required sections.
+
+**Usage**: Use this template structure for every analysis report. Copy the format and populate with specific findings for each chart.

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/.claude/skills/technical-analyst/assets/analysis_template.md

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+# Technical Analysis Report
+
+**Ticker/Symbol**: [Symbol Name]
+**Timeframe**: Weekly
+**Analysis Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD]
+**Analyst**: Claude Technical Analyst
+
+---
+
+## 1. Chart Overview
+
+[Brief description of what the chart shows - instrument type, current price level, etc.]
+
+---
+
+## 2. Trend Analysis
+
+### Current Trend
+- **Direction**: [Uptrend / Downtrend / Sideways]
+- **Strength**: [Strong / Moderate / Weak]
+- **Duration**: [How long has this trend been in place]
+
+### Trend Details
+[Detailed analysis of the trend structure - higher highs/lows, lower highs/lows, etc.]
+
+---
+
+## 3. Support and Resistance Levels
+
+### Key Support Levels
+1. **[Price Level 1]**: [Description - why this level is significant]
+2. **[Price Level 2]**: [Description]
+3. **[Price Level 3]**: [Description]
+
+### Key Resistance Levels
+1. **[Price Level 1]**: [Description - why this level is significant]
+2. **[Price Level 2]**: [Description]
+3. **[Price Level 3]**: [Description]
+
+### Support/Resistance Notes
+[Additional observations about S/R dynamics, role reversals, or confluence zones]
+
+---
+
+## 4. Moving Average Analysis
+
+### Current MA Structure
+- **Price vs 20-week MA**: [Above / Below / At] - [Current relationship]
+- **Price vs 50-week MA**: [Above / Below / At] - [Current relationship]
+- **Price vs 200-week MA**: [Above / Below / At] - [Current relationship]
+
+### MA Configuration
+- **Alignment**: [Bullish / Bearish / Neutral]
+- **Slope**: [Rising / Falling / Flat]
+- **Crossovers**: [Any recent or pending crossovers]
+
+### MA as Support/Resistance
+[Observations about MAs acting as dynamic support or resistance]
+
+---
+
+## 5. Volume Analysis
+
+### Volume Trend
+[Description of recent volume patterns - increasing, decreasing, or stable]
+
+### Volume Observations
+- [Key observation 1 - e.g., volume spike at support]
+- [Key observation 2 - e.g., declining volume on rally]
+- [Key observation 3 - e.g., volume divergence]
+
+### Volume Confirmation
+[Assessment of whether volume confirms or contradicts the price action]
+
+---
+
+## 6. Chart Patterns and Price Action
+
+### Identified Patterns
+[List any chart patterns, candlestick patterns, or notable price action]
+
+- **Pattern 1**: [Name and description]
+- **Pattern 2**: [Name and description]
+
+### Price Action Notes
+[Additional observations about recent price behavior, breakouts, rejections, etc.]
+
+---
+
+## 7. Current Market Assessment
+
+### Overall Structure
+[Synthesize all the above elements into a coherent view of the current chart structure]
+
+### Key Observations
+1. [Most important observation]
+2. [Second important observation]
+3. [Third important observation]
+
+---
+
+## 8. Scenario Analysis
+
+### Scenario 1: [Scenario Name] - **[XX]% Probability**
+
+**Description**: [What this scenario entails]
+
+**Supporting Factors**:
+- [Factor 1]
+- [Factor 2]
+- [Factor 3]
+
+**Target Levels**: [Upside or downside targets if this scenario plays out]
+
+**Invalidation Level**: [Price level that would negate this scenario]
+
+---
+
+### Scenario 2: [Scenario Name] - **[XX]% Probability**
+
+**Description**: [What this scenario entails]
+
+**Supporting Factors**:
+- [Factor 1]
+- [Factor 2]
+- [Factor 3]
+
+**Target Levels**: [Upside or downside targets if this scenario plays out]
+
+**Invalidation Level**: [Price level that would negate this scenario]
+
+---
+
+### Scenario 3: [Scenario Name] - **[XX]% Probability**
+
+**Description**: [What this scenario entails]
+
+**Supporting Factors**:
+- [Factor 1]
+- [Factor 2]
+- [Factor 3]
+
+**Target Levels**: [Upside or downside targets if this scenario plays out]
+
+**Invalidation Level**: [Price level that would negate this scenario]
+
+---
+
+### Scenario 4 (Optional): [Scenario Name] - **[XX]% Probability**
+
+**Description**: [What this scenario entails]
+
+**Supporting Factors**:
+- [Factor 1]
+- [Factor 2]
+
+**Target Levels**: [Upside or downside targets if this scenario plays out]
+
+**Invalidation Level**: [Price level that would negate this scenario]
+
+---
+
+## 9. Summary
+
+### Most Likely Outcome
+[Brief statement of the highest probability scenario]
+
+### Key Levels to Watch
+- **Critical Support**: [Level]
+- **Critical Resistance**: [Level]
+
+### Risk Considerations
+[Important caveats, limitations of the analysis, or factors that could disrupt scenarios]
+
+---
+
+## 10. Disclaimer
+
+This analysis is based purely on technical chart data and does not consider fundamental factors, news, or market sentiment. It represents a probabilistic assessment of potential scenarios, not a prediction or investment recommendation. All probabilities are estimates based on technical factors and subject to change as new data emerges.
+
+---
+
+**End of Analysis**

package/.claude/skills/weekly-trade-strategy/.claude/skills/technical-analyst/references/technical_analysis_framework.md

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+# Technical Analysis Framework
+
+This reference provides the methodology for conducting objective, chart-based technical analysis of weekly price charts.
+
+## Core Principles
+
+1. **Chart-Only Analysis**: Base all analysis purely on chart data. Ignore external news, fundamental data, and market sentiment.
+2. **Objectivity**: Focus on observable patterns and data rather than subjective interpretations.
+3. **Weekly Timeframe**: All analysis uses weekly charts for medium to long-term perspective.
+4. **Probability-Based**: Express future scenarios as probabilities rather than certainties.
+
+## 1. Trend Analysis
+
+### Trend Classification
+
+**Uptrend Criteria:**
+- Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern
+- Price trading above key moving averages
+- Moving averages aligned in bullish order (shorter MA > longer MA)
+
+**Downtrend Criteria:**
+- Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern
+- Price trading below key moving averages
+- Moving averages aligned in bearish order (shorter MA < longer MA)
+
+**Sideways/Range-bound:**
+- No clear higher high/low or lower high/low pattern
+- Price oscillating between defined support and resistance levels
+- Moving averages flat or intertwined
+
+### Trend Strength Assessment
+
+**Strong Trend:**
+- Clear, consecutive higher highs/lows (uptrend) or lower highs/lows (downtrend)
+- Minimal retracements
+- Volume confirming price direction
+
+**Weak Trend:**
+- Irregular higher/lower highs and lows
+- Deep retracements (>50% of prior move)
+- Divergence between price and volume
+
+**Trend Exhaustion Signals:**
+- Decreasing momentum on new highs/lows
+- Volume declining as trend progresses
+- Extended distance from moving averages
+- Candlestick reversal patterns (e.g., shooting star, hammer, engulfing)
+
+## 2. Support and Resistance Analysis
+
+### Identifying Support Levels
+
+Support represents price levels where buying interest has historically prevented further decline.
+
+**Criteria for Valid Support:**
+- Price has bounced from the level at least 2-3 times
+- Volume spikes during bounces
+- Longer timeframe support carries more weight
+- Round numbers (psychological levels) often act as support
+
+**Support Types:**
+- **Horizontal Support**: Previous lows aligning at similar price levels
+- **Trendline Support**: Upward-sloping line connecting higher lows
+- **Moving Average Support**: Dynamic support from key MAs (e.g., 20-week, 50-week)
+
+### Identifying Resistance Levels
+
+Resistance represents price levels where selling interest has historically prevented further advance.
+
+**Criteria for Valid Resistance:**
+- Price has been rejected from the level at least 2-3 times
+- Volume spikes during rejections
+- Previous significant highs
+- Round numbers often act as resistance
+
+**Resistance Types:**
+- **Horizontal Resistance**: Previous highs aligning at similar price levels
+- **Trendline Resistance**: Downward-sloping line connecting lower highs
+- **Moving Average Resistance**: Dynamic resistance from key MAs
+
+### Support/Resistance Significance
+
+**Strong S/R Levels:**
+- Tested multiple times (3+ touches)
+- Long-standing (months to years)
+- High volume at previous touches
+- Confluence with other technical factors (Fibonacci, round numbers, moving averages)
+
+**Weak S/R Levels:**
+- Only 1-2 touches
+- Recent formation
+- Low volume at touches
+
+### Support-Resistance Flip
+
+When broken, support often becomes resistance and vice versa. This "role reversal" is a key concept:
+- **Broken Support → Resistance**: After downside break, previous support acts as new resistance on retests
+- **Broken Resistance → Support**: After upside break, previous resistance acts as new support on pullbacks
+
+## 3. Moving Average Analysis
+
+### Key Moving Averages for Weekly Charts
+
+- **20-week MA**: Short-term trend indicator (approximately 4 months)
+- **50-week MA**: Medium-term trend indicator (approximately 1 year)
+- **200-week MA**: Long-term trend indicator (approximately 4 years)
+
+### Moving Average Interpretations
+
+**Price Position Relative to MAs:**
+- **Above all MAs**: Strong bullish structure
+- **Below all MAs**: Strong bearish structure
+- **Between MAs**: Transitional phase, trend unclear
+
+**Moving Average Crossovers:**
+- **Golden Cross**: 20-week MA crosses above 50-week MA (bullish signal)
+- **Death Cross**: 20-week MA crosses below 50-week MA (bearish signal)
+
+**Moving Average Slope:**
+- **Rising MAs**: Bullish momentum
+- **Falling MAs**: Bearish momentum
+- **Flat MAs**: Consolidation, lack of directional momentum
+
+**Moving Average as Support/Resistance:**
+- In uptrends, MAs (especially 20-week and 50-week) often provide dynamic support
+- In downtrends, MAs often provide dynamic resistance
+- Repeated bounces or rejections from MA increase its significance
+
+### Moving Average Confluence
+
+When multiple MAs cluster together or align:
+- **Bullish Alignment**: 20-week > 50-week > 200-week (all rising)
+- **Bearish Alignment**: 20-week < 50-week < 200-week (all falling)
+- **Compressed/Converging MAs**: Often precedes significant directional move
+
+## 4. Volume Analysis
+
+Volume confirms the strength or weakness of price movements.
+
+### Volume Interpretation Principles
+
+**Volume Confirms Price:**
+- **Rising prices + Rising volume**: Healthy uptrend, strong buying
+- **Falling prices + Rising volume**: Healthy downtrend, strong selling
+- **Rising prices + Falling volume**: Weak uptrend, lack of conviction
+- **Falling prices + Falling volume**: Weak downtrend, selling exhaustion possible
+
+### Key Volume Patterns
+
+**Volume Spikes:**
+- **At Support**: High volume bounce suggests strong buying interest (bullish)
+- **At Resistance**: High volume rejection suggests strong selling interest (bearish)
+- **On Breakout**: High volume breakout validates the move
+- **Low Volume Breakout**: Often leads to failed breakout (false signal)
+
+**Volume Trends:**
+- **Increasing Volume in Trend Direction**: Confirms trend strength
+- **Decreasing Volume in Trend Direction**: Warns of potential trend exhaustion
+- **Volume Climax**: Extremely high volume often marks trend extremes (capitulation or euphoria)
+
+**Volume Divergence:**
+- **Bullish Divergence**: Price making new lows but volume declining (selling exhaustion)
+- **Bearish Divergence**: Price making new highs but volume declining (buying exhaustion)
+
+## 5. Chart Patterns and Candlestick Analysis
+
+### Reversal Patterns
+
+**Bullish Reversal:**
+- **Hammer**: Long lower wick, small body at top, appears at support
+- **Bullish Engulfing**: Large green candle fully engulfing previous red candle
+- **Morning Star**: Three-candle pattern (down, small, up)
+- **Double/Triple Bottom**: Price tests support 2-3 times then reverses
+
+**Bearish Reversal:**
+- **Shooting Star**: Long upper wick, small body at bottom, appears at resistance
+- **Bearish Engulfing**: Large red candle fully engulfing previous green candle
+- **Evening Star**: Three-candle pattern (up, small, down)
+- **Double/Triple Top**: Price tests resistance 2-3 times then reverses
+
+### Continuation Patterns
+
+**Bullish Continuation:**
+- **Bull Flag**: Consolidation after strong move up, then breakout higher
+- **Ascending Triangle**: Higher lows with flat resistance, breaks up
+
+**Bearish Continuation:**
+- **Bear Flag**: Consolidation after strong move down, then breakdown
+- **Descending Triangle**: Lower highs with flat support, breaks down
+
+### Pattern Significance
+
+Patterns carry more weight when:
+- Forming at key support/resistance levels
+- Accompanied by appropriate volume (high on breakout)
+- Confirmed by moving averages and trend structure
+- Occurring on longer timeframes (weekly > daily)
+
+## 6. Scenario Development and Probability Assignment
+
+### Scenario Development Process
+
+For each chart analysis, develop 2-4 potential scenarios:
+
+1. **Base Case Scenario**: Most likely outcome based on current chart structure
+2. **Bull Case Scenario**: Optimistic scenario if key resistance breaks
+3. **Bear Case Scenario**: Pessimistic scenario if key support breaks
+4. **Alternative Scenario** (optional): Lower probability but plausible outcome
+
+### Probability Assignment Framework
+
+Assign probabilities based on:
+
+**High Probability (50-70%):**
+- Scenario aligned with current trend
+- Multiple confirming factors (trend, S/R, MA, volume)
+- Recent price action supports scenario
+- Clear invalidation level
+
+**Medium Probability (25-45%):**
+- Scenario requires trend change or major breakout
+- Some supporting factors but not all
+- Depends on key level holding/breaking
+
+**Low Probability (5-20%):**
+- Scenario contrary to most technical factors
+- Requires significant shift in structure
+- Limited supporting evidence but technically possible
+
+### Probability Assignment Example
+
+Current Structure: Uptrend, above all MAs, holding support
+
+- **Bull Case (60%)**: Continuation higher after pullback to support
+  - Reasoning: Trend intact, holding key support, volume confirming
+
+- **Base Case (30%)**: Consolidation/range before next move
+  - Reasoning: Approaching resistance, some profit-taking visible
+
+- **Bear Case (10%)**: Break below support, trend reversal
+  - Reasoning: No clear reversal signals yet, but always possible
+
+**Note**: Probabilities should sum to 100%. Adjust based on strength of supporting factors.
+
+### Invalidation Levels
+
+For each scenario, define a specific price level that would invalidate it:
+- **Bull Scenario Invalidation**: Break below key support
+- **Bear Scenario Invalidation**: Break above key resistance
+- **Base Case Invalidation**: Breakout from range in either direction
+
+## 7. Analysis Structure and Discipline
+
+### Analysis Checklist
+
+For each chart, systematically evaluate:
+
+1. ✓ **Current Trend**: Identify direction, strength, and duration
+2. ✓ **Support Levels**: Mark significant horizontal and dynamic support
+3. ✓ **Resistance Levels**: Mark significant horizontal and dynamic resistance
+4. ✓ **Moving Averages**: Note position, slope, and crossovers
+5. ✓ **Volume Pattern**: Assess if volume confirms or contradicts price
+6. ✓ **Chart Patterns**: Identify any significant patterns forming or completing
+7. ✓ **Scenarios**: Develop 2-4 scenarios with probability estimates
+8. ✓ **Invalidation Levels**: Define what would negate each scenario
+
+### Objectivity Reminders
+
+- Avoid confirmation bias: Consider both bullish and bearish scenarios
+- Let the chart speak: Don't force patterns or signals
+- Update analysis as new data emerges: Charts are dynamic
+- Admit uncertainty: Not every chart provides clear signals
+- Focus on probabilities, not predictions: No scenario is 100% certain
+
+### Common Pitfalls to Avoid
+
+- **Overcomplicating**: Too many indicators can lead to analysis paralysis
+- **Ignoring Volume**: Price without volume is incomplete picture
+- **Forcing Patterns**: Seeing patterns that aren't clearly there
+- **Disregarding Timeframe**: Weekly chart may differ from daily
+- **Neglecting Context**: Each chart in isolation, but overall market matters
+- **Being Too Certain**: Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic