code-ai-installer 4.0.0 → 4.0.1-b

package/domains/analytics/locales/en/.agents/skills/tam-sam-som/SKILL.md

@@ -1,312 +1,329 @@
----
-name: tam-sam-som
-description: Market size estimation — total, serviceable, and obtainable market volume
----
-# TAM/SAM/SOM — Market Size Estimation
-
-## When to use
-- When entering a new market or launching a new product — to justify the potential.
-- When preparing investment materials (pitch deck, business plan) — investors require market size.
-- During strategic planning — choosing between markets, verticals, or geographies.
-- When reviewing strategy — if the market has changed (regulation, technologies, competition).
-
-## Input
-
-| Field | Required | Description |
-|------|:-----------:|----------|
-| Product / service | ✅ | What exactly is being offered to the market |
-| Target geography | ✅ | Countries / regions for estimation |
-| Business model | ✅ | B2B / B2C / B2B2C / SaaS / Marketplace, etc. |
-| Pricing model | ✅ | Subscription / transaction / license / freemium |
-| Average Check (ACV) | ⬚ | If known; otherwise it will be estimated |
-| Target segments | ⬚ | If already defined (company size, industry, demographics) |
-| Competitors | ⬚ | Known players on the market |
-| Forecast horizon | ⬚ | For how many years (default — 3-5 years) |
-
-> If mandatory fields are not provided — **ask the user** before starting the analysis. Do not invent.
-
-## Data Sources
-1. **Web Search** — industry reports (Statista, Grand View Research, Mordor Intelligence, IBISWorld, McKinsey, Gartner).
-2. **Financial data** — public reporting of competitors (SEC filings, annual reports).
-3. **Statistical databases** — government statistical data (Rosstat, Eurostat, Census Bureau, World Bank).
-4. **Industry associations** — field-specific associations, chambers of commerce.
-5. **Data from user** — internal analytics, CRM, current sales.
-
-> Provide source and date for every number. Data older than 24 months — mark with ⚠️ and verify via `web-research`. Extrapolations — mark as 🔮 Assumed.
-
-### Connection with other skills
-| Skill | What we take | When to call |
-|------|-----------|----------------|
-| `web-research` | Industry reports, market sizes, CAGR (steps 2-4) | Main tool — call for each level of the funnel |
-| `pest-analysis` | Macro limitations on TAM: regulatory, economic (step 3) | If regulation or macro environment restricts the market |
-| `competitive-analysis` | Competitors' shares to justify SOM capture rate (step 4) | If the competitive market structure is unknown |
-| `icp-buyer-persona` | SAM filters: ICP defines the target segment (step 3) | If target segments are not defined |
-| `ansoff-matrix` | New market TAM for Market Development and Diversification strategies | After calculation — to evaluate growth strategies |
-| `blue-ocean-strategy` | TAM of new market space (noncustomers) | If the core market is small — evaluate Blue Ocean TAM |
-
-## Protocol
-
-### Step 0 — Collect Context
-1. Check that all mandatory inputs are provided. If something is missing — ask the user.
-2. Determine the unit of measurement (USD, EUR, RUB) and time horizon.
-3. Clearly state the problem the product solves.
-4. Define the market category (industry → subcategory → niche).
-5. Outline the market boundaries: what is included, what is excluded.
-
-### Step 1 — TAM (Total Addressable Market)
-Estimate using **two methods** for cross-validation:
-
-**Top-down:**
-1. Find the total industry volume (from industry reports).
-2. Apply filter for the product category.
-3. Apply geographical filter.
-4. Record: source, year, report methodology.
-
-**Bottom-up:**
-1. Determine the total number of potential customers in the category.
-2. Multiply by the average check (ACV) × purchase frequency per year.
-3. `TAM (bottom-up) = Number of customers × ACV × Frequency`.
-4. Record: data source for number of customers, justification for ACV.
-
-**Cross-check:**
-
-| Condition | Action |
-|---------|----------|
-| Variance < 30% | Use the average. Normal discrepancy |
-| Variance 30-100% | Investigate reason. Record both figures, justify choice of the final one |
-| Variance > 100% | 🔴 Problem: redefine market boundaries or sources. Do not average — find the error |
-
-### Step 2 — SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)
-Apply filters to TAM:
-
-| # | Filter | Description | Multiplier | Justification | Source |
-|---|--------|----------|:---------:|-------------|----------|
-| 1 | Geography | Where we actually operate | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
-| 2 | Segment | B2B: size, industry; B2C: demographics | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
-| 3 | Regulation | Licenses, certifications, bans | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
-| 4 | Technologies | Language, platform, integrations | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
-
-`SAM = TAM × Filter₁ × Filter₂ × ... × FilterN`
-
-> If `$icp-buyer-persona` exists — use ICP criteria as SAM filters (ideal + acceptable).
-
-### Step 3 — SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
-Determine a realistic share of SAM:
-
-1. Estimate the capture rate:
-
-   | Stage | Typical capture rate | Justification |
-   |--------|:---------------------:|-------------|
-   | Pre-product (idea) | 0.5-1% | No product, no customers |
-   | Startup (MVP, <$1M ARR) | 1-3% | First customers, seeking PMF |
-   | Growing ($1M-10M ARR) | 3-5% | PMF found, scaling |
-   | Mature (>$10M ARR) | 5-15% | Established brand and channels |
-   | Market leader | 15-30% | Dominant position |
-
-2. Factor in competitive intensity:
-   - If `$competitive-analysis` exists — use competitors' market shares for justification.
-   - If not — evaluate based on the number and size of players.
-
-3. `SOM = SAM × Capture Rate`.
-4. Calculate for 3 horizons: year 1, year 3, year 5.
-
-### Step 4 — Sensitivity Analysis
-Estimate how SOM changes when varying key parameters:
-
-| Parameter | Variation | Effect on SOM |
-|----------|:--------:|:--------------:|
-| ACV | ±20% | SOM ±20% |
-| Capture rate | ±50% | SOM ±50% |
-| Target segment size | ±30% | SAM/SOM ±30% |
-
-3 scenarios:
-
-| Scenario | TAM | SAM | SOM (year 3) | Key Assumption |
-|----------|:---:|:---:|:-----------:|---------------------|
-| Optimistic | $XB | $XM | $XM | [What must come true] |
-| Base | $XB | $XM | $XM | [Current trends] |
-| Pessimistic | $XB | $XM | $XM | [What might go wrong] |
-
-### Step 5 — Dynamics and Growth (YoY)
-1. Determine the market's CAGR (historical + forecast).
-2. Growth drivers: technologies, regulation, consumer behavior.
-3. Hindrance factors: saturation, substitution, crises.
-4. Forecast TAM/SAM/SOM for the 3-5 year horizon.
-
-## Example — B2B SaaS: Corporate Learning Platform, RF
-
-**Context:** AI-powered corporate training platform, B2B SaaS, per seat subscription, RF. ACV is $6K/yr. Horizon: 2026-2031.
-
-### TAM
-
-**Top-down:**
-- EdTech Market RF = $4.2B (Smart Ranking, 2026) ✅
-- Corporate learning = 43% of EdTech = $1.8B (HSE, 2026) ✅
-- **TAM (top-down) = $1.8B**
-
-**Bottom-up:**
-- Companies in RF with 50+ employees: ~85,000 (Rosstat, 2025) ✅
-- Average training budget: $18K/yr (HH.ru Research, 2026) ⚠️ (1 source)
-- **TAM (bottom-up) = 85,000 × $18K = $1.53B**
-
-**Cross-check:** 15% variance ($1.53B vs $1.8B) — normal. **TAM = $1.65B** (average).
-
-### SAM
-
-| # | Filter | Multiplier | Justification | Source |
-|---|--------|:---------:|-------------|----------|
-| 1 | Only SaaS solutions (no trainers, no offline) | ×35% | 35% of budgets go to digital | HSE, 2026 ✅ |
-| 2 | Companies 50-2000 ppl (our sweet spot) | ×60% | Ent >2000 — SAP/Oracle; <50 — don't buy | CRM + benchmark |
-| 3 | IT, fintech, retail, manufacturing | ×70% | Other industries — low digitization | Rosstat ⚠️ |
-
-**SAM = $1.65B × 0.35 × 0.60 × 0.70 = $243M**
-
-### SOM
-
-| Horizon | Capture Rate | SOM | Justification |
-|:--------:|:-----------:|:---:|-------------|
-| Year 1 | 1.5% | $3.6M | Startup, 50 clients, $6K ACV |
-| Year 3 | 4% | $9.7M | PMF found, 160 clients |
-| Year 5 | 8% | $19.4M | Leader in the AI training niche |
-
-### Sensitivity Analysis (SOM year 3)
-
-| Scenario | TAM | SAM | SOM | Assumption |
-|----------|:---:|:---:|:---:|-----------|
-| Optimistic | $2.1B | $310M | $15.5M | CAGR 25% + state subsidies up 50% |
-| Base | $1.65B | $243M | $9.7M | CAGR 18%, current competition |
-| Pessimistic | $1.3B | $182M | $5.5M | Inflation squeezes budgets, capture 3% |
-
-### Dynamics
-
-| Year | TAM | CAGR | SAM | SOM |
-|:---:|:---:|:----:|:---:|:---:|
-| 2026 | $1.65B | — | $243M | $3.6M |
-| 2027 | $1.95B | 18% | $287M | $5.7M |
-| 2029 | $2.71B | 18% | $399M | $15.9M |
-| 2031 | $3.77B | 18% | $555M | $44.4M |
-
-**Growth drivers:** personnel shortage (HR budgets ↑), AI personalization, "Kadry" state program.
-**Hindrance factors:** inflation (8-10%), competition (Yandex, Skillbox), regulatory barriers (FZ-152).
-
-## Validation (Quality Gate)
-
-- [ ] TAM calculated via two methods (top-down + bottom-up)
-- [ ] Variance between methods recorded and handled by rule (<30% / 30-100% / >100%)
-- [ ] SAM has clear filters, each justified with a multiplier and source
-- [ ] SOM based on a realistic capture rate, justified by the company's stage
-- [ ] SOM calculated for 3 horizons (year 1 / 3 / 5)
-- [ ] Sensitivity analysis: 3 scenarios varying ACV, capture rate, segment
-- [ ] CAGR and 3-5 year forecast with growth and hindrance factors
-- [ ] TAM ≥ SAM ≥ SOM (no internal contradictions)
-- [ ] Units of measurement and currency are consistent
-- [ ] All figures cited; >24 mo = ⚠️; extrapolations = 🔮
-- [ ] Conflicting sources documented explaining the choice made
-
-> If validation fails — iterate until it passes, do not hand off further.
-
-## Handoff
-The output of `$tam-sam-som` acts as input for:
-- **Strategist / Mediator** — market size as a factor when choosing strategy.
-- **`unit-economics`** — market size to calculate potential revenue.
-- **`competitive-analysis`** — competitors' market shares for benchmarking.
-- **`ansoff-matrix`** — new market TAM for Market Development strategies.
-- **`bcg-matrix`** — market growth to classify business units.
-- **`blue-ocean-strategy`** — TAM of new space (noncustomers).
-
-Output format: TAM/SAM/SOM funnel + filters + sensitivity + dynamics + assumptions. When handing off — use `$handoff`.
-
-## Anti-patterns
-
-| Mistake | Why it hurts | How to do it right |
-|--------|-------------|---------------|
-| Top-down only | One methodology gives a skewed picture | Always use two methods: top-down + bottom-up + cross-check |
-| TAM = entire industry | Inflating by 10x+, loss of trust | Clearly bound the product category |
-| SOM without capture rate | Pure fantasy instead of forecast | Justify capture rate by company stage and competitive environment |
-| Old data | Markets change quickly | Sources ≤ 24 mo; older = ⚠️ + verify |
-| No sensitivity analysis | False precision — one number instead of a range | 3 scenarios: ACV ±20%, capture ±50%, segment ±30% |
-| SAM = TAM | No filtering, useless estimate | Filters: geo, segment, regulation, tech — each with a multiplier |
-| Not stating assumptions | Impossible to assess estimation reliability | Each assumption — with its impact on the result |
-| Top-down & bottom-up differ > 100% | One method is flawed, cannot be averaged | Find the error source, do not average |
-
-## Output Template
-
-```
-### Market Size Estimation — [Product / Service]
-
-**Market Category:** [industry → subcategory → niche]
-**Geography:** [regions]
-**Business Model:** [model]
-**Currency:** [USD / EUR / RUB]
-**Horizon:** [year — year]
-**Assessment Date:** [date]
-
----
-
-#### TAM → SAM → SOM Funnel
-
-| Metric | Volume | Method | Source | Confidence |
-|---------|:-----:|-------|----------|:-------------:|
-| **TAM** (top-down) | $[X]B | [method] | [source, year] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
-| **TAM** (bottom-up) | $[Y]B | [quantity] × [ACV] × [frequency] | [source] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
-| **TAM** (final) | $[Z]B | [Average / weighted / choice] | Variance: X% | |
-| **SAM** | $[X]M | TAM × filters | [sources] | |
-| **SOM** (year 1) | $[X]M | SAM × [X]% capture | [justification] | |
-| **SOM** (year 3) | $[X]M | SAM × [X]% capture | [justification] | |
-| **SOM** (year 5) | $[X]M | SAM × [X]% capture | [justification] | |
-
----
-
-#### SAM Filters
-
-| # | Filter | Multiplier | Justification | Source |
-|---|--------|:---------:|-------------|----------|
-| 1 | [Geo] | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
-| 2 | [Segment] | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
-
-`SAM = TAM × F₁ × F₂ × ... = $[X]M`
-
----
-
-#### Capture Rate (SOM)
-
-| Horizon | Capture Rate | SOM | Justification |
-|:--------:|:-----------:|:---:|-------------|
-| Year 1 | X% | $XM | [Stage + competition] |
-| Year 3 | X% | $XM | [Stage + competition] |
-| Year 5 | X% | $XM | [Stage + competition] |
-
----
-
-#### Sensitivity Analysis
-
-| Scenario | TAM | SAM | SOM (year 3) | Key Assumption |
-|----------|:---:|:---:|:-----------:|---------------------|
-| Optimistic | $XB | $XM | $XM | [What must come true] |
-| Base | $XB | $XM | $XM | [Current trends] |
-| Pessimistic | $XB | $XM | $XM | [What might go wrong] |
-
----
-
-#### Market Dynamics (YoY)
-
-| Year | TAM | CAGR | SAM | SOM |
-|:---:|:---:|:----:|:---:|:---:|
-| [current] | $XB | — | $XM | $XM |
-| [+1] | $XB | X% | $XM | $XM |
-| [+3] | $XB | X% | $XM | $XM |
-| [+5] | $XB | X% | $XM | $XM |
-
-**Growth drivers:** [list]
-**Hindrance factors:** [list]
-
----
-
-#### Sources and Assumptions
-
-| # | Fact / Assumption | Source | Date | Confidence |
-|---|-------------------|----------|------|:-------------:|
-| 1 | [Fact] | [Source] | [Date] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
-
-Legend: ✅ Verified (2+ sources) | ⚠️ Estimated (1 source) | 🔮 Assumed (extrapolation / calculation)
-```
+---
+name: tam-sam-som
+description: Market size estimation — total, serviceable, and obtainable market volume
+type: triggered
+domain: analytics
+owners:
+  - strategist
+gates:
+  - STRATEGIST
+tech: []
+topic: []
+triggers:
+  - "tam-sam-som"
+  - "TAM"
+  - "SAM"
+  - "SOM"
+  - "размер рынка"
+related: []
+budget_lines: 329
+schema_version: 1
+---
+# TAM/SAM/SOM — Market Size Estimation
+
+## When to use
+- When entering a new market or launching a new product — to justify the potential.
+- When preparing investment materials (pitch deck, business plan) — investors require market size.
+- During strategic planning — choosing between markets, verticals, or geographies.
+- When reviewing strategy — if the market has changed (regulation, technologies, competition).
+
+## Input
+
+| Field | Required | Description |
+|------|:-----------:|----------|
+| Product / service | ✅ | What exactly is being offered to the market |
+| Target geography | ✅ | Countries / regions for estimation |
+| Business model | ✅ | B2B / B2C / B2B2C / SaaS / Marketplace, etc. |
+| Pricing model | ✅ | Subscription / transaction / license / freemium |
+| Average Check (ACV) | ⬚ | If known; otherwise it will be estimated |
+| Target segments | ⬚ | If already defined (company size, industry, demographics) |
+| Competitors | ⬚ | Known players on the market |
+| Forecast horizon | ⬚ | For how many years (default — 3-5 years) |
+
+> If mandatory fields are not provided — **ask the user** before starting the analysis. Do not invent.
+
+## Data Sources
+1. **Web Search** — industry reports (Statista, Grand View Research, Mordor Intelligence, IBISWorld, McKinsey, Gartner).
+2. **Financial data** — public reporting of competitors (SEC filings, annual reports).
+3. **Statistical databases** — government statistical data (Rosstat, Eurostat, Census Bureau, World Bank).
+4. **Industry associations** — field-specific associations, chambers of commerce.
+5. **Data from user** — internal analytics, CRM, current sales.
+
+> Provide source and date for every number. Data older than 24 months — mark with ⚠️ and verify via `web-research`. Extrapolations — mark as 🔮 Assumed.
+
+### Connection with other skills
+| Skill | What we take | When to call |
+|------|-----------|----------------|
+| `web-research` | Industry reports, market sizes, CAGR (steps 2-4) | Main tool — call for each level of the funnel |
+| `pest-analysis` | Macro limitations on TAM: regulatory, economic (step 3) | If regulation or macro environment restricts the market |
+| `competitive-analysis` | Competitors' shares to justify SOM capture rate (step 4) | If the competitive market structure is unknown |
+| `icp-buyer-persona` | SAM filters: ICP defines the target segment (step 3) | If target segments are not defined |
+| `ansoff-matrix` | New market TAM for Market Development and Diversification strategies | After calculation — to evaluate growth strategies |
+| `blue-ocean-strategy` | TAM of new market space (noncustomers) | If the core market is small — evaluate Blue Ocean TAM |
+
+## Protocol
+
+### Step 0 — Collect Context
+1. Check that all mandatory inputs are provided. If something is missing — ask the user.
+2. Determine the unit of measurement (USD, EUR, RUB) and time horizon.
+3. Clearly state the problem the product solves.
+4. Define the market category (industry → subcategory → niche).
+5. Outline the market boundaries: what is included, what is excluded.
+
+### Step 1 — TAM (Total Addressable Market)
+Estimate using **two methods** for cross-validation:
+
+**Top-down:**
+1. Find the total industry volume (from industry reports).
+2. Apply filter for the product category.
+3. Apply geographical filter.
+4. Record: source, year, report methodology.
+
+**Bottom-up:**
+1. Determine the total number of potential customers in the category.
+2. Multiply by the average check (ACV) × purchase frequency per year.
+3. `TAM (bottom-up) = Number of customers × ACV × Frequency`.
+4. Record: data source for number of customers, justification for ACV.
+
+**Cross-check:**
+
+| Condition | Action |
+|---------|----------|
+| Variance < 30% | Use the average. Normal discrepancy |
+| Variance 30-100% | Investigate reason. Record both figures, justify choice of the final one |
+| Variance > 100% | 🔴 Problem: redefine market boundaries or sources. Do not average — find the error |
+
+### Step 2 — SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)
+Apply filters to TAM:
+
+| # | Filter | Description | Multiplier | Justification | Source |
+|---|--------|----------|:---------:|-------------|----------|
+| 1 | Geography | Where we actually operate | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
+| 2 | Segment | B2B: size, industry; B2C: demographics | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
+| 3 | Regulation | Licenses, certifications, bans | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
+| 4 | Technologies | Language, platform, integrations | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
+
+`SAM = TAM × Filter₁ × Filter₂ × ... × FilterN`
+
+> If `$icp-buyer-persona` exists — use ICP criteria as SAM filters (ideal + acceptable).
+
+### Step 3 — SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
+Determine a realistic share of SAM:
+
+1. Estimate the capture rate:
+
+   | Stage | Typical capture rate | Justification |
+   |--------|:---------------------:|-------------|
+   | Pre-product (idea) | 0.5-1% | No product, no customers |
+   | Startup (MVP, <$1M ARR) | 1-3% | First customers, seeking PMF |
+   | Growing ($1M-10M ARR) | 3-5% | PMF found, scaling |
+   | Mature (>$10M ARR) | 5-15% | Established brand and channels |
+   | Market leader | 15-30% | Dominant position |
+
+2. Factor in competitive intensity:
+   - If `$competitive-analysis` exists — use competitors' market shares for justification.
+   - If not — evaluate based on the number and size of players.
+
+3. `SOM = SAM × Capture Rate`.
+4. Calculate for 3 horizons: year 1, year 3, year 5.
+
+### Step 4 — Sensitivity Analysis
+Estimate how SOM changes when varying key parameters:
+
+| Parameter | Variation | Effect on SOM |
+|----------|:--------:|:--------------:|
+| ACV | ±20% | SOM ±20% |
+| Capture rate | ±50% | SOM ±50% |
+| Target segment size | ±30% | SAM/SOM ±30% |
+
+3 scenarios:
+
+| Scenario | TAM | SAM | SOM (year 3) | Key Assumption |
+|----------|:---:|:---:|:-----------:|---------------------|
+| Optimistic | $XB | $XM | $XM | [What must come true] |
+| Base | $XB | $XM | $XM | [Current trends] |
+| Pessimistic | $XB | $XM | $XM | [What might go wrong] |
+
+### Step 5 — Dynamics and Growth (YoY)
+1. Determine the market's CAGR (historical + forecast).
+2. Growth drivers: technologies, regulation, consumer behavior.
+3. Hindrance factors: saturation, substitution, crises.
+4. Forecast TAM/SAM/SOM for the 3-5 year horizon.
+
+## Example — B2B SaaS: Corporate Learning Platform, RF
+
+**Context:** AI-powered corporate training platform, B2B SaaS, per seat subscription, RF. ACV is $6K/yr. Horizon: 2026-2031.
+
+### TAM
+
+**Top-down:**
+- EdTech Market RF = $4.2B (Smart Ranking, 2026) ✅
+- Corporate learning = 43% of EdTech = $1.8B (HSE, 2026) ✅
+- **TAM (top-down) = $1.8B**
+
+**Bottom-up:**
+- Companies in RF with 50+ employees: ~85,000 (Rosstat, 2025) ✅
+- Average training budget: $18K/yr (HH.ru Research, 2026) ⚠️ (1 source)
+- **TAM (bottom-up) = 85,000 × $18K = $1.53B**
+
+**Cross-check:** 15% variance ($1.53B vs $1.8B) — normal. **TAM = $1.65B** (average).
+
+### SAM
+
+| # | Filter | Multiplier | Justification | Source |
+|---|--------|:---------:|-------------|----------|
+| 1 | Only SaaS solutions (no trainers, no offline) | ×35% | 35% of budgets go to digital | HSE, 2026 ✅ |
+| 2 | Companies 50-2000 ppl (our sweet spot) | ×60% | Ent >2000 — SAP/Oracle; <50 — don't buy | CRM + benchmark |
+| 3 | IT, fintech, retail, manufacturing | ×70% | Other industries — low digitization | Rosstat ⚠️ |
+
+**SAM = $1.65B × 0.35 × 0.60 × 0.70 = $243M**
+
+### SOM
+
+| Horizon | Capture Rate | SOM | Justification |
+|:--------:|:-----------:|:---:|-------------|
+| Year 1 | 1.5% | $3.6M | Startup, 50 clients, $6K ACV |
+| Year 3 | 4% | $9.7M | PMF found, 160 clients |
+| Year 5 | 8% | $19.4M | Leader in the AI training niche |
+
+### Sensitivity Analysis (SOM year 3)
+
+| Scenario | TAM | SAM | SOM | Assumption |
+|----------|:---:|:---:|:---:|-----------|
+| Optimistic | $2.1B | $310M | $15.5M | CAGR 25% + state subsidies up 50% |
+| Base | $1.65B | $243M | $9.7M | CAGR 18%, current competition |
+| Pessimistic | $1.3B | $182M | $5.5M | Inflation squeezes budgets, capture 3% |
+
+### Dynamics
+
+| Year | TAM | CAGR | SAM | SOM |
+|:---:|:---:|:----:|:---:|:---:|
+| 2026 | $1.65B | — | $243M | $3.6M |
+| 2027 | $1.95B | 18% | $287M | $5.7M |
+| 2029 | $2.71B | 18% | $399M | $15.9M |
+| 2031 | $3.77B | 18% | $555M | $44.4M |
+
+**Growth drivers:** personnel shortage (HR budgets ↑), AI personalization, "Kadry" state program.
+**Hindrance factors:** inflation (8-10%), competition (Yandex, Skillbox), regulatory barriers (FZ-152).
+
+## Validation (Quality Gate)
+
+- [ ] TAM calculated via two methods (top-down + bottom-up)
+- [ ] Variance between methods recorded and handled by rule (<30% / 30-100% / >100%)
+- [ ] SAM has clear filters, each justified with a multiplier and source
+- [ ] SOM based on a realistic capture rate, justified by the company's stage
+- [ ] SOM calculated for 3 horizons (year 1 / 3 / 5)
+- [ ] Sensitivity analysis: 3 scenarios varying ACV, capture rate, segment
+- [ ] CAGR and 3-5 year forecast with growth and hindrance factors
+- [ ] TAM ≥ SAM ≥ SOM (no internal contradictions)
+- [ ] Units of measurement and currency are consistent
+- [ ] All figures cited; >24 mo = ⚠️; extrapolations = 🔮
+- [ ] Conflicting sources documented explaining the choice made
+
+> If validation fails — iterate until it passes, do not hand off further.
+
+## Handoff
+The output of `$tam-sam-som` acts as input for:
+- **Strategist / Mediator** — market size as a factor when choosing strategy.
+- **`unit-economics`** — market size to calculate potential revenue.
+- **`competitive-analysis`** — competitors' market shares for benchmarking.
+- **`ansoff-matrix`** — new market TAM for Market Development strategies.
+- **`bcg-matrix`** — market growth to classify business units.
+- **`blue-ocean-strategy`** — TAM of new space (noncustomers).
+
+Output format: TAM/SAM/SOM funnel + filters + sensitivity + dynamics + assumptions. When handing off — use `$handoff`.
+
+## Anti-patterns
+
+| Mistake | Why it hurts | How to do it right |
+|--------|-------------|---------------|
+| Top-down only | One methodology gives a skewed picture | Always use two methods: top-down + bottom-up + cross-check |
+| TAM = entire industry | Inflating by 10x+, loss of trust | Clearly bound the product category |
+| SOM without capture rate | Pure fantasy instead of forecast | Justify capture rate by company stage and competitive environment |
+| Old data | Markets change quickly | Sources ≤ 24 mo; older = ⚠️ + verify |
+| No sensitivity analysis | False precision — one number instead of a range | 3 scenarios: ACV ±20%, capture ±50%, segment ±30% |
+| SAM = TAM | No filtering, useless estimate | Filters: geo, segment, regulation, tech — each with a multiplier |
+| Not stating assumptions | Impossible to assess estimation reliability | Each assumption — with its impact on the result |
+| Top-down & bottom-up differ > 100% | One method is flawed, cannot be averaged | Find the error source, do not average |
+
+## Output Template
+
+```
+### Market Size Estimation — [Product / Service]
+
+**Market Category:** [industry → subcategory → niche]
+**Geography:** [regions]
+**Business Model:** [model]
+**Currency:** [USD / EUR / RUB]
+**Horizon:** [year — year]
+**Assessment Date:** [date]
+
+---
+
+#### TAM → SAM → SOM Funnel
+
+| Metric | Volume | Method | Source | Confidence |
+|---------|:-----:|-------|----------|:-------------:|
+| **TAM** (top-down) | $[X]B | [method] | [source, year] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
+| **TAM** (bottom-up) | $[Y]B | [quantity] × [ACV] × [frequency] | [source] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
+| **TAM** (final) | $[Z]B | [Average / weighted / choice] | Variance: X% | |
+| **SAM** | $[X]M | TAM × filters | [sources] | |
+| **SOM** (year 1) | $[X]M | SAM × [X]% capture | [justification] | |
+| **SOM** (year 3) | $[X]M | SAM × [X]% capture | [justification] | |
+| **SOM** (year 5) | $[X]M | SAM × [X]% capture | [justification] | |
+
+---
+
+#### SAM Filters
+
+| # | Filter | Multiplier | Justification | Source |
+|---|--------|:---------:|-------------|----------|
+| 1 | [Geo] | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
+| 2 | [Segment] | ×XX% | [Why] | [Source] |
+
+`SAM = TAM × F₁ × F₂ × ... = $[X]M`
+
+---
+
+#### Capture Rate (SOM)
+
+| Horizon | Capture Rate | SOM | Justification |
+|:--------:|:-----------:|:---:|-------------|
+| Year 1 | X% | $XM | [Stage + competition] |
+| Year 3 | X% | $XM | [Stage + competition] |
+| Year 5 | X% | $XM | [Stage + competition] |
+
+---
+
+#### Sensitivity Analysis
+
+| Scenario | TAM | SAM | SOM (year 3) | Key Assumption |
+|----------|:---:|:---:|:-----------:|---------------------|
+| Optimistic | $XB | $XM | $XM | [What must come true] |
+| Base | $XB | $XM | $XM | [Current trends] |
+| Pessimistic | $XB | $XM | $XM | [What might go wrong] |
+
+---
+
+#### Market Dynamics (YoY)
+
+| Year | TAM | CAGR | SAM | SOM |
+|:---:|:---:|:----:|:---:|:---:|
+| [current] | $XB | — | $XM | $XM |
+| [+1] | $XB | X% | $XM | $XM |
+| [+3] | $XB | X% | $XM | $XM |
+| [+5] | $XB | X% | $XM | $XM |
+
+**Growth drivers:** [list]
+**Hindrance factors:** [list]
+
+---
+
+#### Sources and Assumptions
+
+| # | Fact / Assumption | Source | Date | Confidence |
+|---|-------------------|----------|------|:-------------:|
+| 1 | [Fact] | [Source] | [Date] | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔮 |
+
+Legend: ✅ Verified (2+ sources) | ⚠️ Estimated (1 source) | 🔮 Assumed (extrapolation / calculation)
+```