@saibolla/ada 0.1.2

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Files changed (1432) hide show
  1. package/.ada/SYSTEM.md +81 -0
  2. package/.ada/agents/researcher.md +69 -0
  3. package/.ada/agents/reviewer.md +92 -0
  4. package/.ada/agents/verifier.md +45 -0
  5. package/.ada/agents/writer.md +54 -0
  6. package/.ada/settings.json +32 -0
  7. package/.ada/themes/ada.json +85 -0
  8. package/.env.example +31 -0
  9. package/AGENTS.md +79 -0
  10. package/LICENSE +191 -0
  11. package/README.md +188 -0
  12. package/bin/ada.js +26 -0
  13. package/dist/bootstrap/sync.js +143 -0
  14. package/dist/cli.js +404 -0
  15. package/dist/config/paths.js +32 -0
  16. package/dist/index.js +10 -0
  17. package/dist/model/catalog.js +255 -0
  18. package/dist/model/commands.js +180 -0
  19. package/dist/pi/launch.js +33 -0
  20. package/dist/pi/package-presets.js +55 -0
  21. package/dist/pi/runtime.js +81 -0
  22. package/dist/pi/settings.js +108 -0
  23. package/dist/pi/web-access.js +74 -0
  24. package/dist/search/commands.js +12 -0
  25. package/dist/setup/doctor.js +126 -0
  26. package/dist/setup/preview.js +117 -0
  27. package/dist/setup/prompts.js +34 -0
  28. package/dist/setup/setup.js +98 -0
  29. package/dist/setup/update.js +133 -0
  30. package/dist/system/executables.js +38 -0
  31. package/dist/system/node-version.js +31 -0
  32. package/dist/system/open-url.js +35 -0
  33. package/dist/system/promise-polyfill.js +12 -0
  34. package/dist/ui/terminal.js +64 -0
  35. package/dist/web/launch.js +48 -0
  36. package/dist/web-search.js +1 -0
  37. package/extensions/docparser/constants.ts +62 -0
  38. package/extensions/docparser/deps.ts +584 -0
  39. package/extensions/docparser/doctor.ts +353 -0
  40. package/extensions/docparser/index.ts +9 -0
  41. package/extensions/docparser/input.ts +230 -0
  42. package/extensions/docparser/request.ts +67 -0
  43. package/extensions/docparser/schema.ts +82 -0
  44. package/extensions/docparser/tool.ts +305 -0
  45. package/extensions/docparser/types.ts +99 -0
  46. package/extensions/research-tools/alpha.ts +107 -0
  47. package/extensions/research-tools/header.ts +284 -0
  48. package/extensions/research-tools/help.ts +93 -0
  49. package/extensions/research-tools/project-scaffold.ts +64 -0
  50. package/extensions/research-tools/project.ts +123 -0
  51. package/extensions/research-tools/shared.ts +16 -0
  52. package/extensions/research-tools.ts +42 -0
  53. package/logo.d.mts +3 -0
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  55. package/metadata/commands.d.mts +46 -0
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  63. package/prompts/jobs.md +16 -0
  64. package/prompts/litreview.md +18 -0
  65. package/prompts/log.md +14 -0
  66. package/prompts/replicate.md +24 -0
  67. package/prompts/review.md +18 -0
  68. package/prompts/watch.md +16 -0
  69. package/scripts/build-native-bundle.mjs +349 -0
  70. package/scripts/check-node-version.mjs +35 -0
  71. package/scripts/patch-embedded-pi.mjs +588 -0
  72. package/scripts/prepare-runtime-workspace.mjs +162 -0
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+ # Outcome Analysis and Statistical Methods Guide
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+
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+ ## Overview
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+
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+ Rigorous outcome analysis is essential for clinical decision support documents. This guide covers survival analysis, response assessment, statistical testing, and data visualization for patient cohort analyses and treatment evaluation.
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+
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+ ## Survival Analysis
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+
9
+ ### Kaplan-Meier Method
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+
11
+ **Overview**
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+ - Non-parametric estimator of survival function from time-to-event data
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+ - Handles censored observations (patients alive at last follow-up)
14
+ - Provides survival probability at each time point
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+ - Generates characteristic step-function survival curves
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+
17
+ **Key Concepts**
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+
19
+ **Censoring**
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+ - **Right censoring**: Most common - patient alive at last follow-up or study end
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+ - **Left censoring**: Rare in clinical studies
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+ - **Interval censoring**: Event occurred between two assessment times
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+ - **Informative vs non-informative**: Censoring should be independent of outcome
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+
25
+ **Survival Function S(t)**
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+ - S(t) = Probability of surviving beyond time t
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+ - S(0) = 1.0 (100% alive at time zero)
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+ - S(t) decreases as time increases
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+ - Step decreases at each event time
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+
31
+ **Median Survival**
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+ - Time point where S(t) = 0.50
33
+ - 50% of patients alive, 50% have had event
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+ - Reported with 95% confidence interval
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+ - "Not reached (NR)" if fewer than 50% events
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+
37
+ **Survival Rates at Fixed Time Points**
38
+ - 1-year survival rate, 2-year survival rate, 5-year survival rate
39
+ - Read from K-M curve at specific time point
40
+ - Report with 95% CI: S(t) ± 1.96 × SE
41
+
42
+ **Calculation Example**
43
+ ```
44
+ Time Events At Risk Survival Probability
45
+ 0 0 100 1.000
46
+ 3 2 100 0.980 (98/100)
47
+ 5 1 95 0.970 (97/100 × 95/98)
48
+ 8 3 87 0.936 (94/100 × 92/95 × 84/87)
49
+ ...
50
+ ```
51
+
52
+ ### Log-Rank Test
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+
54
+ **Purpose**: Compare survival curves between two or more groups
55
+
56
+ **Null Hypothesis**: No difference in survival distributions between groups
57
+
58
+ **Test Statistic**
59
+ - Compares observed vs expected events in each group at each time point
60
+ - Weights all time points equally
61
+ - Follows chi-square distribution with df = k-1 (k groups)
62
+
63
+ **Reporting**
64
+ - Chi-square statistic, degrees of freedom, p-value
65
+ - Example: χ² = 6.82, df = 1, p = 0.009
66
+ - Interpretation: Significant difference in survival curves
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+
68
+ **Assumptions**
69
+ - Censoring is non-informative and independent
70
+ - Proportional hazards (constant HR over time)
71
+ - If non-proportional, consider time-varying effects
72
+
73
+ **Alternatives for Non-Proportional Hazards**
74
+ - **Gehan-Breslow test**: Weights early events more heavily
75
+ - **Peto-Peto test**: Modifies Gehan-Breslow weighting
76
+ - **Restricted mean survival time (RMST)**: Difference in area under K-M curve
77
+
78
+ ### Cox Proportional Hazards Regression
79
+
80
+ **Purpose**: Multivariable survival analysis, estimate hazard ratios adjusting for covariates
81
+
82
+ **Model**: h(t|X) = h₀(t) × exp(β₁X₁ + β₂X₂ + ... + βₚXₚ)
83
+ - h(t|X): Hazard rate for individual with covariates X
84
+ - h₀(t): Baseline hazard function (unspecified)
85
+ - exp(β): Hazard ratio for one-unit change in covariate
86
+
87
+ **Hazard Ratio Interpretation**
88
+ - HR = 1.0: No effect
89
+ - HR > 1.0: Increased risk (harmful)
90
+ - HR < 1.0: Decreased risk (beneficial)
91
+ - HR = 0.50: 50% reduction in hazard (risk of event)
92
+
93
+ **Example Output**
94
+ ```
95
+ Variable HR 95% CI p-value
96
+ Treatment (B vs A) 0.62 0.43-0.89 0.010
97
+ Age (per 10 years) 1.15 1.02-1.30 0.021
98
+ ECOG PS (2 vs 0-1) 1.85 1.21-2.83 0.004
99
+ Biomarker+ (vs -) 0.71 0.48-1.05 0.089
100
+ ```
101
+
102
+ **Proportional Hazards Assumption**
103
+ - Hazard ratio constant over time
104
+ - Test: Schoenfeld residuals, log-minus-log plots
105
+ - Violation: Time-varying effects, consider stratification or time-dependent covariates
106
+
107
+ **Multivariable vs Univariable**
108
+ - **Univariable**: One covariate at a time, unadjusted HRs
109
+ - **Multivariable**: Multiple covariates simultaneously, adjusted HRs
110
+ - Report both: Univariable for all variables, multivariable for final model
111
+
112
+ **Model Selection**
113
+ - **Forward selection**: Start with empty model, add significant variables
114
+ - **Backward elimination**: Start with all variables, remove non-significant
115
+ - **Clinical judgment**: Include known prognostic factors regardless of p-value
116
+ - **Parsimony**: Avoid overfitting, rule of thumb 1 variable per 10-15 events
117
+
118
+ ## Response Assessment
119
+
120
+ ### RECIST v1.1 (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors)
121
+
122
+ **Target Lesions**
123
+ - Select up to 5 lesions total (maximum 2 per organ)
124
+ - Measurable: ≥10 mm longest diameter (≥15 mm for lymph nodes short axis)
125
+ - Sum of longest diameters (SLD) at baseline
126
+
127
+ **Response Categories**
128
+
129
+ **Complete Response (CR)**
130
+ - Disappearance of all target and non-target lesions
131
+ - Lymph nodes must regress to <10 mm short axis
132
+ - Confirmation required at ≥4 weeks
133
+
134
+ **Partial Response (PR)**
135
+ - ≥30% decrease in SLD from baseline
136
+ - No new lesions or unequivocal progression of non-target lesions
137
+ - Confirmation required at ≥4 weeks
138
+
139
+ **Stable Disease (SD)**
140
+ - Neither PR nor PD criteria met
141
+ - Minimum duration typically 6-8 weeks from baseline
142
+
143
+ **Progressive Disease (PD)**
144
+ - ≥20% increase in SLD AND ≥5 mm absolute increase from smallest SLD (nadir)
145
+ - OR appearance of new lesions
146
+ - OR unequivocal progression of non-target lesions
147
+
148
+ **Example Calculation**
149
+ ```
150
+ Baseline SLD: 80 mm (4 target lesions)
151
+ Week 6 SLD: 52 mm
152
+
153
+ Percent change: (52 - 80)/80 × 100% = -35%
154
+ Classification: Partial Response (≥30% decrease)
155
+
156
+ Week 12 SLD: 48 mm (nadir)
157
+ Week 18 SLD: 62 mm
158
+
159
+ Percent change from nadir: (62 - 48)/48 × 100% = +29%
160
+ Absolute change: 62 - 48 = 14 mm
161
+ Classification: Progressive Disease (>20% AND ≥5 mm increase)
162
+ ```
163
+
164
+ ### iRECIST (Immune RECIST)
165
+
166
+ **Purpose**: Account for atypical response patterns with immunotherapy
167
+
168
+ **Modifications from RECIST v1.1**
169
+
170
+ **iUPD (Immune Unconfirmed Progressive Disease)**
171
+ - Initial increase in tumor burden or new lesions
172
+ - Requires confirmation at next assessment (≥4 weeks later)
173
+ - Continue treatment if clinically stable
174
+
175
+ **iCPD (Immune Confirmed Progressive Disease)**
176
+ - Confirmed progression at repeat imaging
177
+ - Discontinue immunotherapy
178
+
179
+ **Pseudoprogression**
180
+ - Initial apparent progression followed by response
181
+ - Mechanism: Immune cell infiltration increases tumor size
182
+ - Incidence: 5-10% of patients on immunotherapy
183
+ - Management: Continue treatment if patient clinically stable
184
+
185
+ **New Lesions**
186
+ - Record size and location but continue treatment
187
+ - Do not automatically classify as PD
188
+ - Confirm progression if new lesions grow or additional new lesions appear
189
+
190
+ ### Other Response Criteria
191
+
192
+ **Lugano Classification (Lymphoma)**
193
+ - **PET-based**: Deauville 5-point scale
194
+ - Score 1-3: Negative (metabolic CR)
195
+ - Score 4-5: Positive (residual disease)
196
+ - **CT-based**: If PET not available
197
+ - **Bone marrow**: Required for staging in some lymphomas
198
+
199
+ **RANO (Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology)**
200
+ - **Glioblastoma-specific**: Accounts for pseudoprogression with radiation/temozolomide
201
+ - **Enhancing disease**: Bidimensional measurements (product of perpendicular diameters)
202
+ - **Non-enhancing disease**: FLAIR changes assessed separately
203
+ - **Corticosteroid dose**: Must document, increase may indicate progression
204
+
205
+ **mRECIST (Modified RECIST for HCC)**
206
+ - **Viable tumor**: Enhancing portion only (arterial phase enhancement)
207
+ - **Necrosis**: Non-enhancing areas excluded from measurements
208
+ - **Application**: Hepatocellular carcinoma with arterial enhancement
209
+
210
+ ## Outcome Metrics
211
+
212
+ ### Efficacy Endpoints
213
+
214
+ **Overall Survival (OS)**
215
+ - **Definition**: Time from randomization/treatment start to death from any cause
216
+ - **Advantages**: Objective, not subject to assessment bias, regulatory gold standard
217
+ - **Disadvantages**: Requires long follow-up, affected by subsequent therapies
218
+ - **Censoring**: Last known alive date
219
+ - **Analysis**: Kaplan-Meier, log-rank test, Cox regression
220
+
221
+ **Progression-Free Survival (PFS)**
222
+ - **Definition**: Time from randomization to progression (RECIST) or death
223
+ - **Advantages**: Earlier readout than OS, direct treatment effect
224
+ - **Disadvantages**: Requires regular imaging, subject to assessment timing
225
+ - **Censoring**: Last tumor assessment without progression
226
+ - **Sensitivity Analysis**: Assess impact of censoring assumptions
227
+
228
+ **Objective Response Rate (ORR)**
229
+ - **Definition**: Proportion of patients achieving CR or PR (best response)
230
+ - **Denominator**: Evaluable patients (baseline measurable disease)
231
+ - **Reporting**: Percentage with 95% CI (exact binomial method)
232
+ - **Duration**: Time from first response to progression (DOR)
233
+ - **Advantage**: Binary endpoint, no censoring complications
234
+
235
+ **Disease Control Rate (DCR)**
236
+ - **Definition**: CR + PR + SD (stable disease ≥6-8 weeks)
237
+ - **Less Stringent**: Captures clinical benefit beyond objective response
238
+ - **Reporting**: Percentage with 95% CI
239
+
240
+ **Duration of Response (DOR)**
241
+ - **Definition**: Time from first CR or PR to progression (among responders only)
242
+ - **Population**: Subset analysis of responders
243
+ - **Analysis**: Kaplan-Meier among responders
244
+ - **Reporting**: Median DOR with 95% CI
245
+
246
+ **Time to Treatment Failure (TTF)**
247
+ - **Definition**: Time from start to discontinuation for any reason (progression, toxicity, death, patient choice)
248
+ - **Advantage**: Reflects real-world treatment duration
249
+ - **Components**: PFS + toxicity-related discontinuations
250
+
251
+ ### Safety Endpoints
252
+
253
+ **Adverse Events (CTCAE v5.0)**
254
+
255
+ **Grading**
256
+ - **Grade 1**: Mild, asymptomatic or mild symptoms, clinical intervention not indicated
257
+ - **Grade 2**: Moderate, minimal/local intervention indicated, age-appropriate ADL limitation
258
+ - **Grade 3**: Severe or medically significant, not immediately life-threatening, hospitalization/prolongation indicated, disabling, self-care ADL limitation
259
+ - **Grade 4**: Life-threatening consequences, urgent intervention indicated
260
+ - **Grade 5**: Death related to adverse event
261
+
262
+ **Reporting Standards**
263
+ ```
264
+ Adverse Event Summary Table:
265
+
266
+ AE Term (MedDRA) Any Grade, n (%) Grade 3-4, n (%) Grade 5, n (%)
267
+ Trt A Trt B Trt A Trt B Trt A Trt B
268
+ ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
269
+ Hematologic
270
+ Anemia 45 (90%) 42 (84%) 8 (16%) 6 (12%) 0 0
271
+ Neutropenia 35 (70%) 38 (76%) 15 (30%) 18 (36%) 0 0
272
+ Thrombocytopenia 28 (56%) 25 (50%) 6 (12%) 4 (8%) 0 0
273
+ Febrile neutropenia 4 (8%) 6 (12%) 4 (8%) 6 (12%) 0 0
274
+
275
+ Gastrointestinal
276
+ Nausea 42 (84%) 40 (80%) 2 (4%) 1 (2%) 0 0
277
+ Diarrhea 31 (62%) 28 (56%) 5 (10%) 3 (6%) 0 0
278
+ Mucositis 18 (36%) 15 (30%) 3 (6%) 2 (4%) 0 0
279
+
280
+ Any AE 50 (100%) 50 (100%) 38 (76%) 35 (70%) 1 (2%) 0
281
+ ```
282
+
283
+ **Serious Adverse Events (SAEs)**
284
+ - SAE incidence and type
285
+ - Relationship to treatment (related vs unrelated)
286
+ - Outcome (resolved, ongoing, fatal)
287
+ - Causality assessment (definite, probable, possible, unlikely, unrelated)
288
+
289
+ **Treatment Modifications**
290
+ - Dose reductions: n (%), reason
291
+ - Dose delays: n (%), duration
292
+ - Discontinuations: n (%), reason (toxicity vs progression vs other)
293
+ - Relative dose intensity: (actual dose delivered / planned dose) × 100%
294
+
295
+ ## Statistical Analysis Methods
296
+
297
+ ### Comparing Continuous Outcomes
298
+
299
+ **Independent Samples t-test**
300
+ - **Application**: Compare means between two independent groups (normally distributed)
301
+ - **Assumptions**: Normal distribution, equal variances (or use Welch's t-test)
302
+ - **Reporting**: Mean ± SD for each group, mean difference (95% CI), t-statistic, df, p-value
303
+ - **Example**: Mean age 62.3 ± 8.4 vs 58.7 ± 9.1 years, difference 3.6 years (95% CI 0.2-7.0, p=0.038)
304
+
305
+ **Mann-Whitney U Test (Wilcoxon Rank-Sum)**
306
+ - **Application**: Compare medians between two groups (non-normal distribution)
307
+ - **Non-parametric**: No distributional assumptions
308
+ - **Reporting**: Median [IQR] for each group, median difference, U-statistic, p-value
309
+ - **Example**: Median time to response 6.2 [4.1-8.3] vs 8.5 [5.9-11.2] weeks, p=0.042
310
+
311
+ **ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)**
312
+ - **Application**: Compare means across three or more groups
313
+ - **Output**: F-statistic, p-value (overall test)
314
+ - **Post-hoc**: If significant, pairwise comparisons with Tukey or Bonferroni correction
315
+ - **Example**: Treatment effect varied by biomarker subgroup (F=4.32, df=2, p=0.016)
316
+
317
+ ### Comparing Categorical Outcomes
318
+
319
+ **Chi-Square Test for Independence**
320
+ - **Application**: Compare proportions between two or more groups
321
+ - **Assumptions**: Expected count ≥5 in at least 80% of cells
322
+ - **Reporting**: n (%) for each cell, χ², df, p-value
323
+ - **Example**: ORR 45% vs 30%, χ²=6.21, df=1, p=0.013
324
+
325
+ **Fisher's Exact Test**
326
+ - **Application**: 2×2 tables when expected count <5
327
+ - **Exact p-value**: No large-sample approximation
328
+ - **Two-sided vs one-sided**: Typically report two-sided
329
+ - **Example**: SAE rate 3/20 (15%) vs 8/22 (36%), Fisher's exact p=0.083
330
+
331
+ **McNemar's Test**
332
+ - **Application**: Paired categorical data (before/after, matched pairs)
333
+ - **Example**: Response before vs after treatment switch in same patients
334
+
335
+ ### Sample Size and Power
336
+
337
+ **Power Analysis Components**
338
+ - **Alpha (α)**: Type I error rate, typically 0.05 (two-sided)
339
+ - **Beta (β)**: Type II error rate, typically 0.10 or 0.20
340
+ - **Power**: 1 - β, typically 0.80 or 0.90 (80-90% power)
341
+ - **Effect size**: Expected difference (HR, mean difference, proportion difference)
342
+ - **Sample size**: Number of patients or events needed
343
+
344
+ **Survival Study Sample Size**
345
+ - Events-driven: Need sufficient events (deaths, progressions)
346
+ - Rule of thumb: 80% power requires approximately 165 events for HR=0.70 (α=0.05, two-sided)
347
+ - Accrual time + follow-up time determines calendar time
348
+
349
+ **Response Rate Study**
350
+ ```
351
+ Example: Detect ORR difference 45% vs 30% (15 percentage points)
352
+ - α = 0.05 (two-sided)
353
+ - Power = 0.80
354
+ - Sample size: n = 94 per group (188 total)
355
+ - With 10% dropout: n = 105 per group (210 total)
356
+ ```
357
+
358
+ ## Data Visualization
359
+
360
+ ### Survival Curves
361
+
362
+ **Kaplan-Meier Plot Best Practices**
363
+
364
+ ```python
365
+ # Key elements for publication-quality survival curve
366
+ 1. X-axis: Time (months or years), starts at 0
367
+ 2. Y-axis: Survival probability (0 to 1.0 or 0% to 100%)
368
+ 3. Step function: Survival curve with steps at event times
369
+ 4. 95% CI bands: Shaded region around survival curve (optional but recommended)
370
+ 5. Number at risk table: Below x-axis showing n at risk at time intervals
371
+ 6. Censoring marks: Vertical tick marks (|) at censored observations
372
+ 7. Legend: Clearly identify each curve
373
+ 8. Log-rank p-value: Prominently displayed
374
+ 9. Median survival: Horizontal line at 0.50, labeled
375
+ 10. Follow-up: Median follow-up time reported
376
+ ```
377
+
378
+ **Number at Risk Table Format**
379
+ ```
380
+ Number at risk
381
+ Group A 50 42 35 28 18 10 5
382
+ Group B 48 38 29 19 12 6 2
383
+ Time 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 (months)
384
+ ```
385
+
386
+ **Hazard Ratio Annotation**
387
+ ```
388
+ On plot: HR 0.62 (95% CI 0.43-0.89), p=0.010
389
+ Or in caption: Log-rank test p=0.010; Cox model HR=0.62 (95% CI 0.43-0.89)
390
+ ```
391
+
392
+ ### Waterfall Plots
393
+
394
+ **Purpose**: Visualize individual patient responses to treatment
395
+
396
+ **Construction**
397
+ - **X-axis**: Individual patients (anonymized patient IDs)
398
+ - **Y-axis**: Best % change from baseline tumor burden
399
+ - **Bars**: Vertical bars, one per patient
400
+ - Positive values: Tumor growth
401
+ - Negative values: Tumor shrinkage
402
+ - **Ordering**: Sorted from best response (left) to worst (right)
403
+ - **Color coding**:
404
+ - Green/blue: CR or PR (≥30% decrease)
405
+ - Yellow: SD (-30% to +20%)
406
+ - Red: PD (≥20% increase)
407
+ - **Reference lines**: Horizontal lines at +20% (PD), -30% (PR)
408
+ - **Annotations**: Biomarker status, response duration (symbols)
409
+
410
+ **Example Annotations**
411
+ ```
412
+ ■ = Biomarker-positive
413
+ ○ = Biomarker-negative
414
+ * = Ongoing response
415
+ † = Progressed
416
+ ```
417
+
418
+ ### Forest Plots
419
+
420
+ **Purpose**: Display subgroup analyses with hazard ratios and confidence intervals
421
+
422
+ **Construction**
423
+ - **Y-axis**: Subgroup categories
424
+ - **X-axis**: Hazard ratio (log scale), vertical line at HR=1.0
425
+ - **Points**: HR estimate for each subgroup
426
+ - **Horizontal lines**: 95% confidence interval
427
+ - **Square size**: Proportional to sample size or precision
428
+ - **Overall effect**: Diamond at bottom, width represents 95% CI
429
+
430
+ **Subgroups to Display**
431
+ ```
432
+ Subgroup n HR (95% CI) Favors A Favors B
433
+ ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
434
+ Overall 300 0.65 (0.48-0.88) ●────┤
435
+ Age
436
+ <65 years 180 0.58 (0.39-0.86) ●────┤
437
+ ≥65 years 120 0.78 (0.49-1.24) ●──────┤
438
+ Sex
439
+ Male 175 0.62 (0.43-0.90) ●────┤
440
+ Female 125 0.70 (0.44-1.12) ●─────┤
441
+ Biomarker Status
442
+ Positive 140 0.45 (0.28-0.72) ●───┤
443
+ Negative 160 0.89 (0.59-1.34) ●──────┤
444
+ p-interaction=0.041
445
+
446
+ 0.25 0.5 1.0 2.0
447
+ Hazard Ratio
448
+ ```
449
+
450
+ **Interaction Testing**
451
+ - Test whether treatment effect differs across subgroups
452
+ - p-interaction <0.05 suggests heterogeneity
453
+ - Pre-specify subgroups to avoid data mining
454
+
455
+ ### Spider Plots
456
+
457
+ **Purpose**: Display longitudinal tumor burden changes over time for individual patients
458
+
459
+ **Construction**
460
+ - **X-axis**: Time from treatment start (weeks or months)
461
+ - **Y-axis**: % change from baseline tumor burden
462
+ - **Lines**: One line per patient connecting assessments
463
+ - **Color coding**: By response category or biomarker status
464
+ - **Reference lines**: 0% (no change), +20% (PD threshold), -30% (PR threshold)
465
+
466
+ **Clinical Insights**
467
+ - Identify delayed responders (initial SD then PR)
468
+ - Detect early progression (rapid upward trajectory)
469
+ - Assess depth of response (maximum tumor shrinkage)
470
+ - Duration visualization (when lines cross PD threshold)
471
+
472
+ ### Swimmer Plots
473
+
474
+ **Purpose**: Display treatment duration and response for individual patients
475
+
476
+ **Construction**
477
+ - **X-axis**: Time from treatment start (weeks or months)
478
+ - **Y-axis**: Individual patients (one row per patient)
479
+ - **Bars**: Horizontal bars representing treatment duration
480
+ - **Symbols**:
481
+ - ● Start of treatment
482
+ - ▼ Ongoing treatment (arrow)
483
+ - ■ Progressive disease (end of bar)
484
+ - ◆ Death
485
+ - | Dose modification
486
+ - **Color**: Response status (CR=green, PR=blue, SD=yellow, PD=red)
487
+
488
+ **Example**
489
+ ```
490
+ Patient ID |0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 months
491
+ ──────────────|──────────────────────────────────────────
492
+ Pt-001 ●═══PR═══════════|════════PR══════════▼
493
+ Pt-002 ●═══PR═══════════════PD■
494
+ Pt-003 ●══════SD══════════PD■
495
+ Pt-004 ●PR══════════════════════════════════PR▼
496
+ ...
497
+ ```
498
+
499
+ ## Confidence Intervals
500
+
501
+ ### Interpretation
502
+
503
+ **95% Confidence Interval**
504
+ - Range of plausible values for true population parameter
505
+ - If study repeated 100 times, 95 of the 95% CIs would contain true value
506
+ - **Not**: 95% probability true value within this interval (frequentist, not Bayesian)
507
+
508
+ **Relationship to p-value**
509
+ - If 95% CI excludes null value (HR=1.0, difference=0), p<0.05
510
+ - If 95% CI includes null value, p≥0.05
511
+ - CI provides more information: magnitude and precision of effect
512
+
513
+ **Precision**
514
+ - **Narrow CI**: High precision, large sample size
515
+ - **Wide CI**: Low precision, small sample size or high variability
516
+ - **Example**: HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.62-0.68) very precise; HR 0.65 (0.30-1.40) imprecise
517
+
518
+ ### Calculation Methods
519
+
520
+ **Hazard Ratio CI**
521
+ - From Cox regression output
522
+ - Standard error of log(HR) → exp(log(HR) ± 1.96×SE)
523
+ - Example: HR=0.62, SE(logHR)=0.185 → 95% CI (0.43, 0.89)
524
+
525
+ **Survival Rate CI (Greenwood Formula)**
526
+ - SE(S(t)) = S(t) × sqrt(Σ[d_i / (n_i × (n_i - d_i))])
527
+ - 95% CI: S(t) ± 1.96 × SE(S(t))
528
+ - Can use complementary log-log transformation for better properties
529
+
530
+ **Proportion CI (Exact Binomial)**
531
+ - For ORR, DCR: Use exact method (Clopper-Pearson) for small samples
532
+ - Wilson score interval: Better properties than normal approximation
533
+ - Example: 12/30 responses → ORR 40% (95% CI 22.7-59.4%)
534
+
535
+ ## Censoring and Missing Data
536
+
537
+ ### Types of Censoring
538
+
539
+ **Right Censoring**
540
+ - **End of study**: Patient alive at study termination (administrative censoring)
541
+ - **Loss to follow-up**: Patient stops attending visits
542
+ - **Withdrawal**: Patient withdraws consent
543
+ - **Competing risk**: Death from unrelated cause (in disease-specific survival)
544
+
545
+ **Handling Censoring**
546
+ - **Assumption**: Non-informative - censoring independent of event probability
547
+ - **Sensitivity Analysis**: Assess impact if assumption violated
548
+ - Best case: All censored patients never progress
549
+ - Worst case: All censored patients progress immediately after censoring
550
+ - Actual result should fall between best/worst case
551
+
552
+ ### Missing Data
553
+
554
+ **Mechanisms**
555
+ - **MCAR (Missing Completely at Random)**: Missingness unrelated to any variable
556
+ - **MAR (Missing at Random)**: Missingness related to observed but not unobserved variables
557
+ - **NMAR (Not Missing at Random)**: Missingness related to the missing value itself
558
+
559
+ **Handling Strategies**
560
+ - **Complete case analysis**: Exclude patients with missing data (biased if not MCAR)
561
+ - **Multiple imputation**: Generate multiple plausible datasets, analyze each, pool results
562
+ - **Maximum likelihood**: Estimate parameters using all available data
563
+ - **Sensitivity analysis**: Assess robustness to missing data assumptions
564
+
565
+ **Response Assessment Missing Data**
566
+ - **Unevaluable for response**: Baseline measurable disease but post-baseline assessment missing
567
+ - Exclude from ORR denominator or count as non-responder (sensitivity analysis)
568
+ - **PFS censoring**: Last adequate tumor assessment date if later assessments missing
569
+
570
+ ## Reporting Standards
571
+
572
+ ### CONSORT Statement (RCTs)
573
+
574
+ **Flow Diagram**
575
+ - Assessed for eligibility (n=)
576
+ - Randomized (n=)
577
+ - Allocated to intervention (n=)
578
+ - Lost to follow-up (n=, reasons)
579
+ - Discontinued intervention (n=, reasons)
580
+ - Analyzed (n=)
581
+
582
+ **Baseline Table**
583
+ - Demographics and clinical characteristics
584
+ - Baseline prognostic factors
585
+ - Show balance between arms
586
+
587
+ **Outcomes Table**
588
+ - Primary endpoint results with CI and p-value
589
+ - Secondary endpoints
590
+ - Safety summary
591
+
592
+ ### STROBE Statement (Observational Studies)
593
+
594
+ **Study Design**: Cohort, case-control, or cross-sectional
595
+
596
+ **Participants**: Eligibility, sources, selection methods, sample size
597
+
598
+ **Variables**: Clearly define outcomes, exposures, predictors, confounders
599
+
600
+ **Statistical Methods**: Describe all methods, handling of missing data, sensitivity analyses
601
+
602
+ **Results**: Participant flow, descriptive data, outcome data, main results, other analyses
603
+
604
+ ### Reproducible Research Practices
605
+
606
+ **Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP)**
607
+ - Pre-specify all analyses before data lock
608
+ - Primary and secondary endpoints
609
+ - Analysis populations (ITT, per-protocol, safety)
610
+ - Statistical tests and models
611
+ - Subgroup analyses (pre-specified)
612
+ - Interim analyses (if planned)
613
+ - Multiple testing procedures
614
+
615
+ **Transparency**
616
+ - Report all pre-specified analyses
617
+ - Distinguish pre-specified from post-hoc exploratory
618
+ - Report both positive and negative results
619
+ - Provide access to anonymized individual patient data (when possible)
620
+
621
+ ## Software and Tools
622
+
623
+ ### R Packages for Survival Analysis
624
+ - **survival**: Core package (Surv, survfit, coxph, survdiff)
625
+ - **survminer**: Publication-ready Kaplan-Meier plots (ggsurvplot)
626
+ - **rms**: Regression modeling strategies
627
+ - **flexsurv**: Flexible parametric survival models
628
+
629
+ ### Python Libraries
630
+ - **lifelines**: Kaplan-Meier, Cox regression, survival curves
631
+ - **scikit-survival**: Machine learning for survival analysis
632
+ - **matplotlib**: Custom survival curve plotting
633
+
634
+ ### Statistical Software
635
+ - **R**: Most comprehensive for survival analysis
636
+ - **Stata**: Medical statistics, good for epidemiology
637
+ - **SAS**: Industry standard for clinical trials
638
+ - **GraphPad Prism**: User-friendly for basic analyses
639
+ - **SPSS**: Point-and-click interface, limited survival features
640
+