opencode-skills-collection 4.0.53 → 4.0.54

package/bundled-skills/developer-churn/references/detailed-guide.md

@@ -0,0 +1,639 @@
+# Developer Churn - Detailed Guide
+
+> This file contains the detailed procedure and reference material extracted from `SKILL.md` for focused loading. The root skill defines activation, examples, safety constraints, and limitations.
+
+## Before You Start
+
+1. **Load your developer audience context**:
+   - Check if `.agents/developer-audience-context.md` exists
+   - If not, run the `developer-audience-context` skill first
+   - Understanding your developers' alternatives and pain points is critical for churn analysis
+
+2. **Gather your data**:
+   - Current churn rate by segment
+   - Most recent churned users (last 30-90 days)
+   - Support ticket history for churned users
+   - Usage patterns before churn
+   - Exit survey data (if any)
+
+---
+
+
+## Understanding Developer Churn
+
+Developer churn is different from typical SaaS churn:
+
+| Consumer/SMB SaaS | Developer Tools |
+|-------------------|-----------------|
+| Price sensitivity high | Value sensitivity high |
+| Features drive decisions | DX drives decisions |
+| Support tickets = engagement | Support tickets = friction |
+| Monthly churn cycles | Project-based churn |
+| Competitor marketing works | Peer recommendations work |
+
+**Key insight**: Developers don't leave because of price. They leave because of friction, frustration, or finding something better.
+
+---
+
+
+## The 6 Reasons Developers Churn
+
+### 1. Developer Experience (DX) Issues
+
+**Symptoms**:
+- High time-to-first-value
+- Frequent support tickets on basic tasks
+- Complaints about docs or SDKs
+- "It's too complicated" feedback
+
+**Root causes**:
+- Poor documentation
+- Buggy SDKs
+- Breaking changes without migration paths
+- Confusing authentication
+- Missing quickstarts
+
+**Detection signals**:
+```
+- Support tickets mentioning "confused" or "doesn't work"
+- High signup-to-activation drop-off
+- Long time between signup and first API call
+- Multiple failed API calls before success
+```
+
+### 2. Pricing and Billing Friction
+
+**Symptoms**:
+- Downgrades before cancellation
+- Usage dropping to stay under limits
+- Questions about billing
+- Requests for enterprise/custom pricing
+
+**Root causes**:
+- Unpredictable costs
+- Expensive for early-stage
+- No free tier or too restrictive
+- Poor price-to-value perception
+- Billing surprises
+
+**Detection signals**:
+```
+- Sudden usage reduction after billing cycle
+- Pricing page visits from logged-in users
+- Support tickets about unexpected charges
+- API calls stopping mid-month
+```
+
+### 3. Superior Alternatives
+
+**Symptoms**:
+- Sudden churn (not gradual)
+- Multiple team members churning together
+- Churning without complaints
+- "We're going a different direction"
+
+**Root causes**:
+- Competitor launched better feature
+- Open source alternative matured
+- Bigger player entered your space
+- Their stack changed (new language/framework)
+
+**Detection signals**:
+```
+- Sudden stop in usage (no gradual decline)
+- Competitor mentions in support/feedback
+- Traffic to your docs from competitor domains
+- Social mentions comparing you to alternatives
+```
+
+### 4. Project Death
+
+**Symptoms**:
+- Gradual decline to zero
+- No support contact
+- Ignores all communication
+- Whole company churn
+
+**Root causes**:
+- Their project was cancelled
+- Startup failed
+- Prototype never went to production
+- Budget cuts
+
+**Reality check**: You can't prevent this. Don't waste energy trying.
+
+**Detection signals**:
+```
+- Slow decline over weeks/months
+- No login activity
+- No response to any outreach
+- Domain no longer resolves
+```
+
+### 5. Integration Failure
+
+**Symptoms**:
+- High engagement then sudden stop
+- Technical support tickets unresolved
+- "Doesn't work with X" feedback
+- Stuck at implementation phase
+
+**Root causes**:
+- Your product doesn't fit their stack
+- Missing integration they need
+- Technical limitation they hit
+- SDK doesn't support their use case
+
+**Detection signals**:
+```
+- Lots of docs page views on specific integration
+- Support tickets about specific tech stack
+- API calls from testing environment only
+- "Evaluation" mentioned in communications
+```
+
+### 6. Involuntary Churn
+
+**Symptoms**:
+- Churn after failed payment
+- No other warning signs
+- Often surprised when contacted
+
+**Root causes**:
+- Expired credit card
+- Card fraud protection
+- Changed payment method
+- Forgot to update billing
+
+**Detection signals**:
+```
+- Failed payment events
+- Usage continues until hard cutoff
+- Quick reactivation when contacted
+```
+
+---
+
+
+## Identifying At-Risk Developers
+
+### Engagement Scoring
+
+Create a simple health score:
+
+| Signal | Weight | Calculation |
+|--------|--------|-------------|
+| API calls | 30% | This week vs last 4 week avg |
+| Login frequency | 20% | Days since last login |
+| Feature adoption | 20% | % of core features used |
+| Support sentiment | 15% | Positive/negative ticket ratio |
+| Billing health | 15% | Payment success, plan changes |
+
+**Health score thresholds**:
+- **80-100**: Healthy - continue nurturing
+- **60-79**: Watch - proactive outreach
+- **40-59**: At-risk - intervention needed
+- **0-39**: Critical - personal contact
+
+### Early Warning Signs
+
+Monitor for these patterns:
+
+**Usage-based signals**:
+```
+- API calls dropped >50% week-over-week
+- No login in 14+ days
+- Stopped using new features
+- API errors increasing
+- Only using deprecated endpoints
+```
+
+**Support-based signals**:
+```
+- Multiple tickets on same issue
+- Negative sentiment in tickets
+- Questions about data export
+- Asking about contract/cancellation
+- Unusual silence from previously engaged user
+```
+
+**Billing-based signals**:
+```
+- Viewing pricing page while logged in
+- Downgrading plan
+- Removing team members
+- Asking about prorating cancellation
+```
+
+### Building an Alert System
+
+Set up automated alerts:
+
+```
+ALERT: At-risk developer detected
+
+User: [EMAIL/COMPANY]
+Health score: 42 (was 78 last week)
+
+Triggers:
+- API calls down 73% this week
+- 2 unresolved support tickets (both negative sentiment)
+- Viewed pricing page 3 times
+
+Recommended action: Personal outreach from [OWNER]
+```
+
+---
+
+
+## Churn Interviews and Feedback
+
+### The Right Approach
+
+**Do**:
+- Ask genuinely curious questions
+- Accept their decision gracefully
+- Make it about learning, not winning them back
+- Keep it short (5 questions max)
+- Offer something valuable for their time
+
+**Don't**:
+- Try to sell during the interview
+- Get defensive about feedback
+- Promise things to change their mind
+- Make them feel guilty
+- Take longer than 10 minutes
+
+### Exit Survey (Email)
+
+```
+Subject: Quick question about your [PRODUCT] experience
+
+Hey [NAME],
+
+I noticed you've stopped using [PRODUCT]. No worries — these things happen.
+
+If you have 30 seconds, I'd genuinely love to know:
+
+What's the #1 reason you stopped?
+
+[ ] Found a better alternative
+[ ] Too expensive
+[ ] Too complicated to use
+[ ] Missing feature I needed
+[ ] Project ended / no longer needed
+[ ] Other: _____
+
+Your feedback directly shapes our roadmap.
+
+Thanks for giving us a try.
+
+— [NAME], [TITLE] at [COMPANY]
+```
+
+### Exit Interview Questions
+
+If they agree to a call (offer a $50 gift card or donation to their choice):
+
+1. **Opening**: "Thanks for chatting. I'm not here to win you back — just want to understand your experience."
+
+2. **Journey**: "Walk me through your experience with [PRODUCT], from signup to today."
+
+3. **Breaking point**: "Was there a specific moment when you decided to stop using us?"
+
+4. **Alternative**: "What are you using now instead? What made that a better fit?"
+
+5. **Hypothetical**: "If you could wave a magic wand and change one thing about [PRODUCT], what would it be?"
+
+6. **Close**: "Anything else you want us to know?"
+
+### Analyzing Feedback
+
+Track churn reasons by category:
+
+| Category | % of Churn | Actionable? | Priority |
+|----------|------------|-------------|----------|
+| DX issues | 35% | Yes | High |
+| Pricing | 25% | Yes | Medium |
+| Alternatives | 20% | Partially | Medium |
+| Project death | 15% | No | None |
+| Integration gaps | 5% | Yes | Low |
+
+Focus energy on actionable categories with high impact.
+
+---
+
+
+## Win-Back Campaigns
+
+### When to Win Back
+
+**Good candidates**:
+- Churned due to fixable issues (you've since fixed)
+- Left for alternative that's now inferior
+- Project death but new project starting
+- Billing/involuntary churn
+
+**Bad candidates**:
+- Left with strong negative sentiment
+- Fundamental product mismatch
+- Company no longer exists
+- Recently churned (wait at least 30 days)
+
+### Win-Back Sequence
+
+**Timing**: Start 30-60 days after churn. Not sooner.
+
+**Email 1: What's new (Day 30)**
+
+```
+Subject: [PRODUCT] update: [SPECIFIC THING THEY CARED ABOUT]
+
+Hey [NAME],
+
+I know you moved on from [PRODUCT] a while back. Totally respect that.
+
+Quick update: We [SPECIFIC IMPROVEMENT RELEVANT TO THEIR CHURN REASON].
+
+[1-2 sentence details with link to changelog/announcement]
+
+If your situation has changed, we'd be happy to have you back.
+If not, no worries — hope you're building great things.
+
+— [NAME]
+```
+
+**Email 2: Social proof (Day 45)**
+
+```
+Subject: How [COMPANY SIMILAR TO THEIRS] uses [PRODUCT] now
+
+Hey [NAME],
+
+Thought you might find this interesting — [SIMILAR COMPANY]
+just shared how they're using [PRODUCT] to [RELEVANT USE CASE].
+
+[Link to case study or technical post]
+
+Might spark some ideas for your current project.
+
+— [NAME]
+```
+
+**Email 3: Direct offer (Day 60)**
+
+```
+Subject: Would 30 days free help?
+
+Hey [NAME],
+
+Last note from me.
+
+If you've been thinking about giving [PRODUCT] another shot,
+I can set you up with 30 days free on whatever plan you need.
+
+Just reply and I'll make it happen.
+
+If not, I'll stop emailing. Thanks for reading this far.
+
+— [NAME]
+```
+
+### Win-Back Offers
+
+Appropriate offers for developers:
+
+| Offer | When to Use |
+|-------|-------------|
+| Extended free tier | Price-sensitive churners |
+| Free upgrade for 30 days | Feature-gap churners |
+| 1:1 technical help | DX-issue churners |
+| Early access to new feature | Competitor-switch churners |
+| Nothing (just information) | Project-death churners |
+
+**What NOT to offer**:
+- Permanent discounts (sets bad precedent)
+- Desperate "please come back" messaging
+- Anything to project-death churners
+
+---
+
+
+## Monitoring Competitor Switches
+
+### Social Listening Setup
+
+Set up monitoring for:
+
+1. **Direct mentions**:
+   - "[Your product] vs [Competitor]"
+   - "Switching from [Your product] to [Competitor]"
+   - "Migrating away from [Your product]"
+
+2. **Problem space discussions**:
+   - Monitor conversations in your category
+   - See what alternatives people recommend
+   - Track sentiment about your product vs others
+
+3. **Competitor momentum**:
+   - Track competitor mentions and sentiment
+   - New features they're launching
+   - Developer reactions to their updates
+
+### Competitive Intelligence Workflow
+
+```
+Weekly review:
+
+1. Check social listening tools for:
+   - Any mentions of switching from you
+   - Competitor launches or announcements
+   - Developer complaints about your category
+
+2. Analyze patterns:
+   - Are switches going to one competitor?
+   - What features/issues drive switches?
+   - What's competitor doing that resonates?
+
+3. Update churn prevention:
+   - Add new at-risk signals
+   - Prioritize features that prevent switches
+   - Address common complaints
+```
+
+---
+
+
+## Reducing Involuntary Churn
+
+Involuntary churn (payment failures) is often 20-40% of total churn. Fix it.
+
+### Prevention
+
+| Strategy | Implementation |
+|----------|----------------|
+| Card expiration warnings | Email 30 and 7 days before |
+| Multiple payment methods | Allow card + PayPal + ACH |
+| Annual billing incentives | 2 months free for annual |
+| Dunning emails | 3-4 emails over 14 days |
+| Grace period | 7-14 days before hard cutoff |
+| In-app warnings | Banner when payment method needs update |
+
+### Dunning Sequence
+
+**Email 1: Immediate**
+
+```
+Subject: Payment failed — update your card
+
+Hey [NAME],
+
+We couldn't process your payment for [PRODUCT].
+
+Update your card: [LINK]
+
+Your account is still active. We'll retry in 3 days.
+
+— [PRODUCT]
+```
+
+**Email 2: Day 3**
+
+```
+Subject: Second attempt failed — action needed
+
+Hey [NAME],
+
+Still can't process your payment. Your service will be
+interrupted on [DATE] if we can't charge a valid card.
+
+Update now: [LINK]
+
+Having trouble? Reply and we'll help.
+
+— [PRODUCT]
+```
+
+**Email 3: Day 7**
+
+```
+Subject: Your [PRODUCT] account will be paused in 3 days
+
+Hey [NAME],
+
+Final notice: Your account will be paused on [DATE].
+
+This means:
+- API keys will stop working
+- Webhooks will be disabled
+- Your data stays safe (we keep it for 90 days)
+
+Update your payment: [LINK]
+
+— [PRODUCT]
+```
+
+**Email 4: Day 10**
+
+```
+Subject: Your account has been paused
+
+Hey [NAME],
+
+Your [PRODUCT] account is now paused due to payment failure.
+
+To reactivate:
+1. Update your payment method: [LINK]
+2. Your service will resume immediately
+
+Your data is safe and will be kept for 90 days.
+
+Questions? Reply to this email.
+
+— [PRODUCT]
+```
+
+### Recovery Tactics
+
+| Tactic | Impact |
+|--------|--------|
+| Smart retries | Retry 3-5 times over 2 weeks at different times |
+| Card updater services | Automatically update expired cards |
+| Alternative payment request | "Try a different card?" |
+| Payment link in dunning | Direct link, not "log in to update" |
+| Phone/SMS for enterprise | High-value accounts get personal contact |
+
+---
+
+
+## Churn Metrics Dashboard
+
+### Key Metrics
+
+| Metric | How to Calculate | Target |
+|--------|------------------|--------|
+| Monthly churn rate | Churned users / Starting users | <5% |
+| Net revenue churn | Lost revenue - expansion / Starting MRR | <2% |
+| Time to churn | Avg days from signup to churn | Increasing |
+| Win-back rate | Returned users / Churned users | >5% |
+| Involuntary churn % | Payment churn / Total churn | <20% |
+
+### Cohort Analysis
+
+Track retention by:
+- **Signup month**: Are recent cohorts retaining better?
+- **Acquisition source**: Which channels produce sticky users?
+- **Plan type**: Do paid users retain better than free?
+- **Activation status**: Do activated users retain better?
+
+### Health Score Tracking
+
+```
+Weekly health score distribution:
+
+Healthy (80-100): 65% of users
+Watch (60-79):    20% of users
+At-risk (40-59):  10% of users
+Critical (0-39):   5% of users
+
+Trend: At-risk increased 3% this week (investigate)
+```
+
+---
+
+
+## Common Mistakes
+
+| Mistake | Why It Fails | Fix |
+|---------|--------------|-----|
+| Ignoring project death | Wasting resources on unwinnable users | Accept it and focus on actionable churn |
+| Offering discounts first | Trains users to threaten churn for discounts | Lead with value, not price |
+| Win-back too soon | Feels desperate, annoys recently churned | Wait 30+ days |
+| Not listening to feedback | Repeating the same mistakes | Actually fix what they complained about |
+| Generic win-back campaigns | Irrelevant messages get ignored | Personalize based on churn reason |
+| Blaming developers | "They just didn't get it" | Your DX is the problem |
+
+---
+
+
+## Tools
+
+| Tool | Use Case |
+|------|----------|
+| **[Octolens](https://octolens.com)** | Monitor competitor switches, track developer sentiment, detect early warning signs from social mentions |
+| **Segment** | Track usage events for health scoring |
+| **Amplitude/Mixpanel** | Cohort analysis and retention tracking |
+| **Customer.io** | Automated at-risk and win-back sequences |
+| **Stripe** | Dunning management for involuntary churn |
+| **Profitwell Retain** | Specialized churn reduction for payments |
+
+---
+
+
+## Related Skills
+
+- `developer-audience-context` — Understand alternatives and pain points
+- `developer-email-sequences` — Re-engagement and win-back emails
+- `competitor-tracking` — Monitor competitive landscape
+- `developer-listening` — Capture feedback before churn
+- `developer-onboarding` — Prevent churn at the source

package/bundled-skills/developer-listening/SKILL.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 ---
 name: developer-listening
-description: "Monitor what developers say about your brand, competitors, and the problems they're solving. Track mentions and conversations across GitHub, Hacker News, Reddit, Stack Overflow, Twitter, and Discord. Trigger phrases: \"developer listening\", \"monitor developer conversations\", \"track..."
+description: "Monitor what developers say about your brand, competitors, and the problems they're solving. Track mentions and conversations across GitHub, Hacker News, Reddit, Stack Overflow, Twitter, and Discord."
 risk: critical
 source: https://github.com/jonathimer/devmarketing-skills/tree/main/skills/developer-listening
 source_repo: jonathimer/devmarketing-skills
@@ -225,6 +225,12 @@ Use a monitoring tool that tracks developer platforms. Key capabilities to look
 - **alternatives-pages** - Convert competitive insights into comparison content
 - **community-engagement** - Best practices for responding to developer conversations
 
+## Example
+
+**User request:**
+
+> Monitor what developers say about your brand, competitors, and the problems they're solving.
+
 ## Limitations
 
 - Use this skill only when the task clearly matches its upstream source and local project context.