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opencode-skills-collection 4.0.53 → 4.0.54

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package/bundled-skills/developer-churn/SKILL.md CHANGED Viewed

@@ -11,640 +11,20 @@ license_source: https://github.com/jonathimer/devmarketing-skills/blob/main/LICE
 ---
 # Developer Churn
-## When to Use
-Use this skill when you need when the user wants to understand, reduce, or recover from developer churn. Trigger phrases include "why developers leave," "churn rate," "win-back campaign," "at-risk users," "developer retention," "preventing churn," or "competitor switching.".
-This skill helps you understand why developers leave, identify at-risk users before they churn, and win back those who've already left. No guilt trips or desperate discounts — just honest understanding and genuine value.
----
-## Before You Start
-1. **Load your developer audience context**:
-   - Check if `.agents/developer-audience-context.md` exists
-   - If not, run the `developer-audience-context` skill first
-   - Understanding your developers' alternatives and pain points is critical for churn analysis
-2. **Gather your data**:
-   - Current churn rate by segment
-   - Most recent churned users (last 30-90 days)
-   - Support ticket history for churned users
-   - Usage patterns before churn
-   - Exit survey data (if any)
----
-## Understanding Developer Churn
-Developer churn is different from typical SaaS churn:
-| Consumer/SMB SaaS | Developer Tools |
-|-------------------|-----------------|
-| Price sensitivity high | Value sensitivity high |
-| Features drive decisions | DX drives decisions |
-| Support tickets = engagement | Support tickets = friction |
-| Monthly churn cycles | Project-based churn |
-| Competitor marketing works | Peer recommendations work |
-**Key insight**: Developers don't leave because of price. They leave because of friction, frustration, or finding something better.
----
-## The 6 Reasons Developers Churn
-### 1. Developer Experience (DX) Issues
-**Symptoms**:
-- High time-to-first-value
-- Frequent support tickets on basic tasks
-- Complaints about docs or SDKs
-- "It's too complicated" feedback
-**Root causes**:
-- Poor documentation
-- Buggy SDKs
-- Breaking changes without migration paths
-- Confusing authentication
-- Missing quickstarts
-**Detection signals**:
-```
-- Support tickets mentioning "confused" or "doesn't work"
-- High signup-to-activation drop-off
-- Long time between signup and first API call
-- Multiple failed API calls before success
-```
-### 2. Pricing and Billing Friction
-**Symptoms**:
-- Downgrades before cancellation
-- Usage dropping to stay under limits
-- Questions about billing
-- Requests for enterprise/custom pricing
-**Root causes**:
-- Unpredictable costs
-- Expensive for early-stage
-- No free tier or too restrictive
-- Poor price-to-value perception
-- Billing surprises
-**Detection signals**:
-```
-- Sudden usage reduction after billing cycle
-- Pricing page visits from logged-in users
-- Support tickets about unexpected charges
-- API calls stopping mid-month
-```
-### 3. Superior Alternatives
-**Symptoms**:
-- Sudden churn (not gradual)
-- Multiple team members churning together
-- Churning without complaints
-- "We're going a different direction"
-**Root causes**:
-- Competitor launched better feature
-- Open source alternative matured
-- Bigger player entered your space
-- Their stack changed (new language/framework)
-**Detection signals**:
-```
-- Sudden stop in usage (no gradual decline)
-- Competitor mentions in support/feedback
-- Traffic to your docs from competitor domains
-- Social mentions comparing you to alternatives
-```
-### 4. Project Death
-**Symptoms**:
-- Gradual decline to zero
-- No support contact
-- Ignores all communication
-- Whole company churn
-**Root causes**:
-- Their project was cancelled
-- Startup failed
-- Prototype never went to production
-- Budget cuts
-**Reality check**: You can't prevent this. Don't waste energy trying.
-**Detection signals**:
-```
-- Slow decline over weeks/months
-- No login activity
-- No response to any outreach
-- Domain no longer resolves
-```
-### 5. Integration Failure
-**Symptoms**:
-- High engagement then sudden stop
-- Technical support tickets unresolved
-- "Doesn't work with X" feedback
-- Stuck at implementation phase
-**Root causes**:
-- Your product doesn't fit their stack
-- Missing integration they need
-- Technical limitation they hit
-- SDK doesn't support their use case
-**Detection signals**:
-```
-- Lots of docs page views on specific integration
-- Support tickets about specific tech stack
-- API calls from testing environment only
-- "Evaluation" mentioned in communications
-```
-### 6. Involuntary Churn
-**Symptoms**:
-- Churn after failed payment
-- No other warning signs
-- Often surprised when contacted
-**Root causes**:
-- Expired credit card
-- Card fraud protection
-- Changed payment method
-- Forgot to update billing
-**Detection signals**:
-```
-- Failed payment events
-- Usage continues until hard cutoff
-- Quick reactivation when contacted
-```
----
-## Identifying At-Risk Developers
-### Engagement Scoring
-Create a simple health score:
-| Signal | Weight | Calculation |
-|--------|--------|-------------|
-| API calls | 30% | This week vs last 4 week avg |
-| Login frequency | 20% | Days since last login |
-| Feature adoption | 20% | % of core features used |
-| Support sentiment | 15% | Positive/negative ticket ratio |
-| Billing health | 15% | Payment success, plan changes |
-**Health score thresholds**:
-- **80-100**: Healthy - continue nurturing
-- **60-79**: Watch - proactive outreach
-- **40-59**: At-risk - intervention needed
-- **0-39**: Critical - personal contact
-### Early Warning Signs
-Monitor for these patterns:
-**Usage-based signals**:
-```
-- API calls dropped >50% week-over-week
-- No login in 14+ days
-- Stopped using new features
-- API errors increasing
-- Only using deprecated endpoints
-```
-**Support-based signals**:
-```
-- Multiple tickets on same issue
-- Negative sentiment in tickets
-- Questions about data export
-- Asking about contract/cancellation
-- Unusual silence from previously engaged user
-```
-**Billing-based signals**:
-```
-- Viewing pricing page while logged in
-- Downgrading plan
-- Removing team members
-- Asking about prorating cancellation
-```
-### Building an Alert System
-Set up automated alerts:
-```
-ALERT: At-risk developer detected
-User: [EMAIL/COMPANY]
-Health score: 42 (was 78 last week)
-Triggers:
-- API calls down 73% this week
-- 2 unresolved support tickets (both negative sentiment)
-- Viewed pricing page 3 times
-Recommended action: Personal outreach from [OWNER]
-```
----
-## Churn Interviews and Feedback
-### The Right Approach
-**Do**:
-- Ask genuinely curious questions
-- Accept their decision gracefully
-- Make it about learning, not winning them back
-- Keep it short (5 questions max)
-- Offer something valuable for their time
-**Don't**:
-- Try to sell during the interview
-- Get defensive about feedback
-- Promise things to change their mind
-- Make them feel guilty
-- Take longer than 10 minutes
-### Exit Survey (Email)
-```
-Subject: Quick question about your [PRODUCT] experience
-Hey [NAME],
-I noticed you've stopped using [PRODUCT]. No worries — these things happen.
-If you have 30 seconds, I'd genuinely love to know:
-What's the #1 reason you stopped?
-[ ] Found a better alternative
-[ ] Too expensive
-[ ] Too complicated to use
-[ ] Missing feature I needed
-[ ] Project ended / no longer needed
-[ ] Other: _____
-Your feedback directly shapes our roadmap.
-Thanks for giving us a try.
-— [NAME], [TITLE] at [COMPANY]
-```
-### Exit Interview Questions
-If they agree to a call (offer a $50 gift card or donation to their choice):
-1. **Opening**: "Thanks for chatting. I'm not here to win you back — just want to understand your experience."
-2. **Journey**: "Walk me through your experience with [PRODUCT], from signup to today."
-3. **Breaking point**: "Was there a specific moment when you decided to stop using us?"
-4. **Alternative**: "What are you using now instead? What made that a better fit?"
-5. **Hypothetical**: "If you could wave a magic wand and change one thing about [PRODUCT], what would it be?"
-6. **Close**: "Anything else you want us to know?"
-### Analyzing Feedback
-Track churn reasons by category:
-| Category | % of Churn | Actionable? | Priority |
-|----------|------------|-------------|----------|
-| DX issues | 35% | Yes | High |
-| Pricing | 25% | Yes | Medium |
-| Alternatives | 20% | Partially | Medium |
-| Project death | 15% | No | None |
-| Integration gaps | 5% | Yes | Low |
-Focus energy on actionable categories with high impact.
----
-## Win-Back Campaigns
-### When to Win Back
-**Good candidates**:
-- Churned due to fixable issues (you've since fixed)
-- Left for alternative that's now inferior
-- Project death but new project starting
-- Billing/involuntary churn
-**Bad candidates**:
-- Left with strong negative sentiment
-- Fundamental product mismatch
-- Company no longer exists
-- Recently churned (wait at least 30 days)
-### Win-Back Sequence
-**Timing**: Start 30-60 days after churn. Not sooner.
+## Detailed Guide
-**Email 1: What's new (Day 30)**
+Read [the detailed guide](references/detailed-guide.md) before executing this skill. It retains the complete procedure and reference material. Treat its safety, prerequisites, and validation requirements as mandatory. For focused work, load the relevant sections; for end-to-end work, read the guide completely.
-```
-Subject: [PRODUCT] update: [SPECIFIC THING THEY CARED ABOUT]
-Hey [NAME],
-I know you moved on from [PRODUCT] a while back. Totally respect that.
-Quick update: We [SPECIFIC IMPROVEMENT RELEVANT TO THEIR CHURN REASON].
-[1-2 sentence details with link to changelog/announcement]
-If your situation has changed, we'd be happy to have you back.
-If not, no worries — hope you're building great things.
-— [NAME]
-```
-**Email 2: Social proof (Day 45)**
-```
-Subject: How [COMPANY SIMILAR TO THEIRS] uses [PRODUCT] now
-Hey [NAME],
-Thought you might find this interesting — [SIMILAR COMPANY]
-just shared how they're using [PRODUCT] to [RELEVANT USE CASE].
-[Link to case study or technical post]
-Might spark some ideas for your current project.
-— [NAME]
-```
-**Email 3: Direct offer (Day 60)**
-```
-Subject: Would 30 days free help?
-Hey [NAME],
-Last note from me.
-If you've been thinking about giving [PRODUCT] another shot,
-I can set you up with 30 days free on whatever plan you need.
-Just reply and I'll make it happen.
-If not, I'll stop emailing. Thanks for reading this far.
-— [NAME]
-```
-### Win-Back Offers
-Appropriate offers for developers:
-| Offer | When to Use |
-|-------|-------------|
-| Extended free tier | Price-sensitive churners |
-| Free upgrade for 30 days | Feature-gap churners |
-| 1:1 technical help | DX-issue churners |
-| Early access to new feature | Competitor-switch churners |
-| Nothing (just information) | Project-death churners |
-**What NOT to offer**:
-- Permanent discounts (sets bad precedent)
-- Desperate "please come back" messaging
-- Anything to project-death churners
----
-## Monitoring Competitor Switches
-### Social Listening Setup
-Set up monitoring for:
-1. **Direct mentions**:
-   - "[Your product] vs [Competitor]"
-   - "Switching from [Your product] to [Competitor]"
-   - "Migrating away from [Your product]"
-2. **Problem space discussions**:
-   - Monitor conversations in your category
-   - See what alternatives people recommend
-   - Track sentiment about your product vs others
-3. **Competitor momentum**:
-   - Track competitor mentions and sentiment
-   - New features they're launching
-   - Developer reactions to their updates
-### Competitive Intelligence Workflow
-```
-Weekly review:
-1. Check social listening tools for:
-   - Any mentions of switching from you
-   - Competitor launches or announcements
-   - Developer complaints about your category
-2. Analyze patterns:
-   - Are switches going to one competitor?
-   - What features/issues drive switches?
-   - What's competitor doing that resonates?
-3. Update churn prevention:
-   - Add new at-risk signals
-   - Prioritize features that prevent switches
-   - Address common complaints
-```
----
-## Reducing Involuntary Churn
-Involuntary churn (payment failures) is often 20-40% of total churn. Fix it.
-### Prevention
-| Strategy | Implementation |
-|----------|----------------|
-| Card expiration warnings | Email 30 and 7 days before |
-| Multiple payment methods | Allow card + PayPal + ACH |
-| Annual billing incentives | 2 months free for annual |
-| Dunning emails | 3-4 emails over 14 days |
-| Grace period | 7-14 days before hard cutoff |
-| In-app warnings | Banner when payment method needs update |
-### Dunning Sequence
-**Email 1: Immediate**
-```
-Subject: Payment failed — update your card
-Hey [NAME],
-We couldn't process your payment for [PRODUCT].
-Update your card: [LINK]
-Your account is still active. We'll retry in 3 days.
-— [PRODUCT]
-```
-**Email 2: Day 3**
-```
-Subject: Second attempt failed — action needed
-Hey [NAME],
-Still can't process your payment. Your service will be
-interrupted on [DATE] if we can't charge a valid card.
-Update now: [LINK]
-Having trouble? Reply and we'll help.
-— [PRODUCT]
-```
-**Email 3: Day 7**
-```
-Subject: Your [PRODUCT] account will be paused in 3 days
-Hey [NAME],
-Final notice: Your account will be paused on [DATE].
-This means:
-- API keys will stop working
-- Webhooks will be disabled
-- Your data stays safe (we keep it for 90 days)
-Update your payment: [LINK]
-— [PRODUCT]
-```
-**Email 4: Day 10**
-```
-Subject: Your account has been paused
-Hey [NAME],
-Your [PRODUCT] account is now paused due to payment failure.
-To reactivate:
-1. Update your payment method: [LINK]
-2. Your service will resume immediately
-Your data is safe and will be kept for 90 days.
-Questions? Reply to this email.
-— [PRODUCT]
-```
-### Recovery Tactics
-| Tactic | Impact |
-|--------|--------|
-| Smart retries | Retry 3-5 times over 2 weeks at different times |
-| Card updater services | Automatically update expired cards |
-| Alternative payment request | "Try a different card?" |
-| Payment link in dunning | Direct link, not "log in to update" |
-| Phone/SMS for enterprise | High-value accounts get personal contact |
----
-## Churn Metrics Dashboard
-### Key Metrics
-| Metric | How to Calculate | Target |
-|--------|------------------|--------|
-| Monthly churn rate | Churned users / Starting users | <5% |
-| Net revenue churn | Lost revenue - expansion / Starting MRR | <2% |
-| Time to churn | Avg days from signup to churn | Increasing |
-| Win-back rate | Returned users / Churned users | >5% |
-| Involuntary churn % | Payment churn / Total churn | <20% |
-### Cohort Analysis
-Track retention by:
-- **Signup month**: Are recent cohorts retaining better?
-- **Acquisition source**: Which channels produce sticky users?
-- **Plan type**: Do paid users retain better than free?
-- **Activation status**: Do activated users retain better?
-### Health Score Tracking
-```
-Weekly health score distribution:
-Healthy (80-100): 65% of users
-Watch (60-79):    20% of users
-At-risk (40-59):  10% of users
-Critical (0-39):   5% of users
-Trend: At-risk increased 3% this week (investigate)
-```
----
-## Common Mistakes
-| Mistake | Why It Fails | Fix |
-|---------|--------------|-----|
-| Ignoring project death | Wasting resources on unwinnable users | Accept it and focus on actionable churn |
-| Offering discounts first | Trains users to threaten churn for discounts | Lead with value, not price |
-| Win-back too soon | Feels desperate, annoys recently churned | Wait 30+ days |
-| Not listening to feedback | Repeating the same mistakes | Actually fix what they complained about |
-| Generic win-back campaigns | Irrelevant messages get ignored | Personalize based on churn reason |
-| Blaming developers | "They just didn't get it" | Your DX is the problem |
+## When to Use
----
+Use this skill when you need when the user wants to understand, reduce, or recover from developer churn. Trigger phrases include "why developers leave," "churn rate," "win-back campaign," "at-risk users," "developer retention," "preventing churn," or "competitor switching.".
-## Tools
-| Tool | Use Case |
-|------|----------|
-| **[Octolens](https://octolens.com)** | Monitor competitor switches, track developer sentiment, detect early warning signs from social mentions |
-| **Segment** | Track usage events for health scoring |
-| **Amplitude/Mixpanel** | Cohort analysis and retention tracking |
-| **Customer.io** | Automated at-risk and win-back sequences |
-| **Stripe** | Dunning management for involuntary churn |
-| **Profitwell Retain** | Specialized churn reduction for payments |
+This skill helps you understand why developers leave, identify at-risk users before they churn, and win back those who've already left. No guilt trips or desperate discounts — just honest understanding and genuine value.
 ---
-## Related Skills
-- `developer-audience-context` — Understand alternatives and pain points
-- `developer-email-sequences` — Re-engagement and win-back emails
-- `competitor-tracking` — Monitor competitive landscape
-- `developer-listening` — Capture feedback before churn
-- `developer-onboarding` — Prevent churn at the source
 ## Limitations
 - Use this skill only when the task clearly matches its upstream source and local project context.