scipy 1.16.2__cp314-cp314t-win_arm64.whl
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- scipy/__config__.py +161 -0
- scipy/__init__.py +150 -0
- scipy/_cyutility.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/_cyutility.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/_distributor_init.py +18 -0
- scipy/_lib/__init__.py +14 -0
- scipy/_lib/_array_api.py +931 -0
- scipy/_lib/_array_api_compat_vendor.py +9 -0
- scipy/_lib/_array_api_no_0d.py +103 -0
- scipy/_lib/_bunch.py +229 -0
- scipy/_lib/_ccallback.py +251 -0
- scipy/_lib/_ccallback_c.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/_ccallback_c.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/_disjoint_set.py +254 -0
- scipy/_lib/_docscrape.py +761 -0
- scipy/_lib/_elementwise_iterative_method.py +346 -0
- scipy/_lib/_fpumode.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/_fpumode.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/_gcutils.py +105 -0
- scipy/_lib/_pep440.py +487 -0
- scipy/_lib/_sparse.py +41 -0
- scipy/_lib/_test_ccallback.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
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- scipy/_lib/_test_deprecation_call.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
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- scipy/_lib/_test_deprecation_def.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/_test_deprecation_def.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/_testutils.py +373 -0
- scipy/_lib/_threadsafety.py +58 -0
- scipy/_lib/_tmpdirs.py +86 -0
- scipy/_lib/_uarray/LICENSE +29 -0
- scipy/_lib/_uarray/__init__.py +116 -0
- scipy/_lib/_uarray/_backend.py +707 -0
- scipy/_lib/_uarray/_uarray.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/_uarray/_uarray.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/_util.py +1283 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/__init__.py +22 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/_internal.py +59 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/common/__init__.py +1 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/common/_aliases.py +727 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/common/_fft.py +213 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/common/_helpers.py +1058 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/common/_linalg.py +232 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/common/_typing.py +192 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/cupy/__init__.py +13 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/cupy/_aliases.py +156 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/cupy/_info.py +336 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/cupy/_typing.py +31 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/cupy/fft.py +36 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/cupy/linalg.py +49 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/dask/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/dask/array/__init__.py +12 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/dask/array/_aliases.py +376 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/dask/array/_info.py +416 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/dask/array/fft.py +21 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/dask/array/linalg.py +72 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/numpy/__init__.py +28 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/numpy/_aliases.py +190 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/numpy/_info.py +366 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/numpy/_typing.py +30 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/numpy/fft.py +35 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/numpy/linalg.py +143 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/torch/__init__.py +22 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/torch/_aliases.py +855 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/torch/_info.py +369 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/torch/_typing.py +3 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/torch/fft.py +85 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_compat/torch/linalg.py +121 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/__init__.py +38 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_delegation.py +171 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/__init__.py +1 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_at.py +463 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_backends.py +46 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_funcs.py +937 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_lazy.py +357 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_testing.py +278 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_utils/__init__.py +1 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_utils/_compat.py +74 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_utils/_compat.pyi +45 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_utils/_helpers.py +559 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_utils/_typing.py +10 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/_lib/_utils/_typing.pyi +105 -0
- scipy/_lib/array_api_extra/testing.py +359 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/__init__.py +20 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/framework.py +1240 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/main.py +1506 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/models.py +1529 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/problem.py +1296 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/settings.py +132 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/subsolvers/__init__.py +14 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/subsolvers/geometry.py +387 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/subsolvers/optim.py +1203 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/utils/__init__.py +18 -0
- scipy/_lib/cobyqa/utils/exceptions.py +22 -0
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- scipy/_lib/doccer.py +366 -0
- scipy/_lib/messagestream.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/messagestream.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/__init__.py +212 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/cobyla/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/cobyla/cobyla.py +559 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/cobyla/cobylb.py +714 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/cobyla/geometry.py +226 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/cobyla/initialize.py +215 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/cobyla/trustregion.py +492 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/cobyla/update.py +289 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/_bounds.py +34 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/_linear_constraints.py +46 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/_nonlinear_constraints.py +54 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/_project.py +173 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/checkbreak.py +93 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/consts.py +47 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/evaluate.py +99 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/history.py +38 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/infos.py +30 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/linalg.py +435 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/message.py +290 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/powalg.py +131 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/preproc.py +277 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/present.py +5 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/ratio.py +54 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/redrho.py +47 -0
- scipy/_lib/pyprima/common/selectx.py +296 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test__gcutils.py +110 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test__pep440.py +67 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test__testutils.py +32 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test__threadsafety.py +51 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test__util.py +641 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_array_api.py +322 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_bunch.py +169 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_ccallback.py +196 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_config.py +45 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_deprecation.py +10 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_doccer.py +143 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_import_cycles.py +18 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_public_api.py +482 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_scipy_version.py +28 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_tmpdirs.py +48 -0
- scipy/_lib/tests/test_warnings.py +137 -0
- scipy/_lib/uarray.py +31 -0
- scipy/cluster/__init__.py +31 -0
- scipy/cluster/_hierarchy.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/cluster/_hierarchy.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/cluster/_optimal_leaf_ordering.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/cluster/_optimal_leaf_ordering.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/cluster/_vq.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/cluster/_vq.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/cluster/hierarchy.py +4348 -0
- scipy/cluster/tests/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/cluster/tests/hierarchy_test_data.py +145 -0
- scipy/cluster/tests/test_disjoint_set.py +202 -0
- scipy/cluster/tests/test_hierarchy.py +1238 -0
- scipy/cluster/tests/test_vq.py +434 -0
- scipy/cluster/vq.py +832 -0
- scipy/conftest.py +683 -0
- scipy/constants/__init__.py +358 -0
- scipy/constants/_codata.py +2266 -0
- scipy/constants/_constants.py +369 -0
- scipy/constants/codata.py +21 -0
- scipy/constants/constants.py +53 -0
- scipy/constants/tests/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/constants/tests/test_codata.py +78 -0
- scipy/constants/tests/test_constants.py +83 -0
- scipy/datasets/__init__.py +90 -0
- scipy/datasets/_download_all.py +71 -0
- scipy/datasets/_fetchers.py +225 -0
- scipy/datasets/_registry.py +26 -0
- scipy/datasets/_utils.py +81 -0
- scipy/datasets/tests/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/datasets/tests/test_data.py +128 -0
- scipy/differentiate/__init__.py +27 -0
- scipy/differentiate/_differentiate.py +1129 -0
- scipy/differentiate/tests/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/differentiate/tests/test_differentiate.py +694 -0
- scipy/fft/__init__.py +114 -0
- scipy/fft/_backend.py +196 -0
- scipy/fft/_basic.py +1650 -0
- scipy/fft/_basic_backend.py +197 -0
- scipy/fft/_debug_backends.py +22 -0
- scipy/fft/_fftlog.py +223 -0
- scipy/fft/_fftlog_backend.py +200 -0
- scipy/fft/_helper.py +348 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/LICENSE.md +25 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/__init__.py +9 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/basic.py +251 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/helper.py +249 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/pypocketfft.cp314t-win_arm64.lib +0 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/pypocketfft.cp314t-win_arm64.pyd +0 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/realtransforms.py +109 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/tests/__init__.py +0 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/tests/test_basic.py +1011 -0
- scipy/fft/_pocketfft/tests/test_real_transforms.py +505 -0
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- scipy/fft/_realtransforms_backend.py +63 -0
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- scipy/fft/tests/test_helper.py +558 -0
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- scipy/fftpack/tests/test_pseudo_diffs.py +388 -0
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- scipy/integrate/__init__.py +122 -0
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- scipy/integrate/_ivp/__init__.py +8 -0
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- scipy/integrate/_lebedev.py +5450 -0
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- scipy/integrate/_ode.py +1395 -0
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- scipy/integrate/tests/test_tanhsinh.py +1171 -0
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scipy/stats/_fit.py
ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,1351 @@
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import warnings
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from collections import namedtuple
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import numpy as np
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from scipy import optimize, stats
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from scipy._lib._util import check_random_state, _transition_to_rng
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def _combine_bounds(name, user_bounds, shape_domain, integral):
|
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"""Intersection of user-defined bounds and distribution PDF/PMF domain"""
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user_bounds = np.atleast_1d(user_bounds)
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if user_bounds[0] > user_bounds[1]:
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message = (f"There are no values for `{name}` on the interval "
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f"{list(user_bounds)}.")
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raise ValueError(message)
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bounds = (max(user_bounds[0], shape_domain[0]),
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min(user_bounds[1], shape_domain[1]))
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if integral and (np.ceil(bounds[0]) > np.floor(bounds[1])):
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message = (f"There are no integer values for `{name}` on the interval "
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f"defined by the user-provided bounds and the domain "
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"of the distribution.")
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raise ValueError(message)
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elif not integral and (bounds[0] > bounds[1]):
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message = (f"There are no values for `{name}` on the interval "
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f"defined by the user-provided bounds and the domain "
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"of the distribution.")
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raise ValueError(message)
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if not np.all(np.isfinite(bounds)):
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message = (f"The intersection of user-provided bounds for `{name}` "
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f"and the domain of the distribution is not finite. Please "
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f"provide finite bounds for shape `{name}` in `bounds`.")
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raise ValueError(message)
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return bounds
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class FitResult:
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r"""Result of fitting a discrete or continuous distribution to data
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Attributes
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----------
|
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params : namedtuple
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A namedtuple containing the maximum likelihood estimates of the
|
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shape parameters, location, and (if applicable) scale of the
|
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distribution.
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success : bool or None
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Whether the optimizer considered the optimization to terminate
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successfully or not.
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message : str or None
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Any status message provided by the optimizer.
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"""
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def __init__(self, dist, data, discrete, res):
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self._dist = dist
|
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self._data = data
|
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self.discrete = discrete
|
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self.pxf = getattr(dist, "pmf", None) or getattr(dist, "pdf", None)
|
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shape_names = [] if dist.shapes is None else dist.shapes.split(", ")
|
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if not discrete:
|
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FitParams = namedtuple('FitParams', shape_names + ['loc', 'scale'])
|
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else:
|
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FitParams = namedtuple('FitParams', shape_names + ['loc'])
|
69
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+
|
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self.params = FitParams(*res.x)
|
71
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+
|
72
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+
# Optimizer can report success even when nllf is infinite
|
73
|
+
if res.success and not np.isfinite(self.nllf()):
|
74
|
+
res.success = False
|
75
|
+
res.message = ("Optimization converged to parameter values that "
|
76
|
+
"are inconsistent with the data.")
|
77
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+
self.success = getattr(res, "success", None)
|
78
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+
self.message = getattr(res, "message", None)
|
79
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+
|
80
|
+
def __repr__(self):
|
81
|
+
keys = ["params", "success", "message"]
|
82
|
+
m = max(map(len, keys)) + 1
|
83
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+
return '\n'.join([key.rjust(m) + ': ' + repr(getattr(self, key))
|
84
|
+
for key in keys if getattr(self, key) is not None])
|
85
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+
|
86
|
+
def nllf(self, params=None, data=None):
|
87
|
+
"""Negative log-likelihood function
|
88
|
+
|
89
|
+
Evaluates the negative of the log-likelihood function of the provided
|
90
|
+
data at the provided parameters.
|
91
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+
|
92
|
+
Parameters
|
93
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+
----------
|
94
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+
params : tuple, optional
|
95
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+
The shape parameters, location, and (if applicable) scale of the
|
96
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+
distribution as a single tuple. Default is the maximum likelihood
|
97
|
+
estimates (``self.params``).
|
98
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+
data : array_like, optional
|
99
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+
The data for which the log-likelihood function is to be evaluated.
|
100
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+
Default is the data to which the distribution was fit.
|
101
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+
|
102
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+
Returns
|
103
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+
-------
|
104
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+
nllf : float
|
105
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+
The negative of the log-likelihood function.
|
106
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+
|
107
|
+
"""
|
108
|
+
params = params if params is not None else self.params
|
109
|
+
data = data if data is not None else self._data
|
110
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+
return self._dist.nnlf(theta=params, x=data)
|
111
|
+
|
112
|
+
def plot(self, ax=None, *, plot_type="hist"):
|
113
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+
"""Visually compare the data against the fitted distribution.
|
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|
115
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+
Available only if `matplotlib` is installed.
|
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|
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Parameters
|
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----------
|
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ax : `matplotlib.axes.Axes`
|
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Axes object to draw the plot onto, otherwise uses the current Axes.
|
121
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plot_type : {"hist", "qq", "pp", "cdf"}
|
122
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+
Type of plot to draw. Options include:
|
123
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+
|
124
|
+
- "hist": Superposes the PDF/PMF of the fitted distribution
|
125
|
+
over a normalized histogram of the data.
|
126
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+
- "qq": Scatter plot of theoretical quantiles against the
|
127
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+
empirical quantiles. Specifically, the x-coordinates are the
|
128
|
+
values of the fitted distribution PPF evaluated at the
|
129
|
+
percentiles ``(np.arange(1, n) - 0.5)/n``, where ``n`` is the
|
130
|
+
number of data points, and the y-coordinates are the sorted
|
131
|
+
data points.
|
132
|
+
- "pp": Scatter plot of theoretical percentiles against the
|
133
|
+
observed percentiles. Specifically, the x-coordinates are the
|
134
|
+
percentiles ``(np.arange(1, n) - 0.5)/n``, where ``n`` is
|
135
|
+
the number of data points, and the y-coordinates are the values
|
136
|
+
of the fitted distribution CDF evaluated at the sorted
|
137
|
+
data points.
|
138
|
+
- "cdf": Superposes the CDF of the fitted distribution over the
|
139
|
+
empirical CDF. Specifically, the x-coordinates of the empirical
|
140
|
+
CDF are the sorted data points, and the y-coordinates are the
|
141
|
+
percentiles ``(np.arange(1, n) - 0.5)/n``, where ``n`` is
|
142
|
+
the number of data points.
|
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+
|
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+
Returns
|
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+
-------
|
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ax : `matplotlib.axes.Axes`
|
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+
The matplotlib Axes object on which the plot was drawn.
|
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+
|
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+
Examples
|
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+
--------
|
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+
>>> import numpy as np
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+
>>> from scipy import stats
|
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+
>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # matplotlib must be installed
|
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+
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng()
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+
>>> data = stats.nbinom(5, 0.5).rvs(size=1000, random_state=rng)
|
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+
>>> bounds = [(0, 30), (0, 1)]
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+
>>> res = stats.fit(stats.nbinom, data, bounds)
|
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+
>>> ax = res.plot() # save matplotlib Axes object
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+
|
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+
The `matplotlib.axes.Axes` object can be used to customize the plot.
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+
See `matplotlib.axes.Axes` documentation for details.
|
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+
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>>> ax.set_xlabel('number of trials') # customize axis label
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>>> ax.get_children()[0].set_linewidth(5) # customize line widths
|
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+
>>> ax.legend()
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+
>>> plt.show()
|
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+
"""
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try:
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import matplotlib # noqa: F401
|
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+
except ModuleNotFoundError as exc:
|
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+
message = "matplotlib must be installed to use method `plot`."
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raise ModuleNotFoundError(message) from exc
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+
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plots = {'histogram': self._hist_plot, 'qq': self._qq_plot,
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'pp': self._pp_plot, 'cdf': self._cdf_plot,
|
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'hist': self._hist_plot}
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+
if plot_type.lower() not in plots:
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message = f"`plot_type` must be one of {set(plots.keys())}"
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raise ValueError(message)
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+
plot = plots[plot_type.lower()]
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+
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+
if ax is None:
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+
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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ax = plt.gca()
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+
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+
fit_params = np.atleast_1d(self.params)
|
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+
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return plot(ax=ax, fit_params=fit_params)
|
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+
|
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+
def _hist_plot(self, ax, fit_params):
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+
from matplotlib.ticker import MaxNLocator
|
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+
|
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+
support = self._dist.support(*fit_params)
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+
lb = support[0] if np.isfinite(support[0]) else min(self._data)
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+
ub = support[1] if np.isfinite(support[1]) else max(self._data)
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+
pxf = "PMF" if self.discrete else "PDF"
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+
|
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|
+
if self.discrete:
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+
x = np.arange(lb, ub + 2)
|
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|
+
y = self.pxf(x, *fit_params)
|
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|
+
ax.vlines(x[:-1], 0, y[:-1], label='Fitted Distribution PMF',
|
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+
color='C0')
|
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|
+
options = dict(density=True, bins=x, align='left', color='C1')
|
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|
+
ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(MaxNLocator(integer=True))
|
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+
ax.set_xlabel('k')
|
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|
+
ax.set_ylabel('PMF')
|
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|
+
else:
|
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|
+
x = np.linspace(lb, ub, 200)
|
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|
+
y = self.pxf(x, *fit_params)
|
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|
+
ax.plot(x, y, '--', label='Fitted Distribution PDF', color='C0')
|
211
|
+
options = dict(density=True, bins=50, align='mid', color='C1')
|
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|
+
ax.set_xlabel('x')
|
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|
+
ax.set_ylabel('PDF')
|
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|
+
|
215
|
+
if len(self._data) > 50 or self.discrete:
|
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|
+
ax.hist(self._data, label="Histogram of Data", **options)
|
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|
+
else:
|
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|
+
ax.plot(self._data, np.zeros_like(self._data), "*",
|
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|
+
label='Data', color='C1')
|
220
|
+
|
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|
+
ax.set_title(rf"Fitted $\tt {self._dist.name}$ {pxf} and Histogram")
|
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|
+
ax.legend(*ax.get_legend_handles_labels())
|
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|
+
return ax
|
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|
+
|
225
|
+
def _qp_plot(self, ax, fit_params, qq):
|
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|
+
data = np.sort(self._data)
|
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|
+
ps = self._plotting_positions(len(self._data))
|
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|
+
|
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|
+
if qq:
|
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|
+
qp = "Quantiles"
|
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|
+
plot_type = 'Q-Q'
|
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|
+
x = self._dist.ppf(ps, *fit_params)
|
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|
+
y = data
|
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|
+
else:
|
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|
+
qp = "Percentiles"
|
236
|
+
plot_type = 'P-P'
|
237
|
+
x = ps
|
238
|
+
y = self._dist.cdf(data, *fit_params)
|
239
|
+
|
240
|
+
ax.plot(x, y, '.', label=f'Fitted Distribution {plot_type}',
|
241
|
+
color='C0', zorder=1)
|
242
|
+
xlim = ax.get_xlim()
|
243
|
+
ylim = ax.get_ylim()
|
244
|
+
lim = [min(xlim[0], ylim[0]), max(xlim[1], ylim[1])]
|
245
|
+
if not qq:
|
246
|
+
lim = max(lim[0], 0), min(lim[1], 1)
|
247
|
+
|
248
|
+
if self.discrete and qq:
|
249
|
+
q_min, q_max = int(lim[0]), int(lim[1]+1)
|
250
|
+
q_ideal = np.arange(q_min, q_max)
|
251
|
+
# q_ideal = np.unique(self._dist.ppf(ps, *fit_params))
|
252
|
+
ax.plot(q_ideal, q_ideal, 'o', label='Reference', color='k',
|
253
|
+
alpha=0.25, markerfacecolor='none', clip_on=True)
|
254
|
+
elif self.discrete and not qq:
|
255
|
+
# The intent of this is to match the plot that would be produced
|
256
|
+
# if x were continuous on [0, 1] and y were cdf(ppf(x)).
|
257
|
+
# It can be approximated by letting x = np.linspace(0, 1, 1000),
|
258
|
+
# but this might not look great when zooming in. The vertical
|
259
|
+
# portions are included to indicate where the transition occurs
|
260
|
+
# where the data completely obscures the horizontal portions.
|
261
|
+
p_min, p_max = lim
|
262
|
+
a, b = self._dist.support(*fit_params)
|
263
|
+
p_min = max(p_min, 0 if np.isfinite(a) else 1e-3)
|
264
|
+
p_max = min(p_max, 1 if np.isfinite(b) else 1-1e-3)
|
265
|
+
q_min, q_max = self._dist.ppf([p_min, p_max], *fit_params)
|
266
|
+
qs = np.arange(q_min-1, q_max+1)
|
267
|
+
ps = self._dist.cdf(qs, *fit_params)
|
268
|
+
ax.step(ps, ps, '-', label='Reference', color='k', alpha=0.25,
|
269
|
+
clip_on=True)
|
270
|
+
else:
|
271
|
+
ax.plot(lim, lim, '-', label='Reference', color='k', alpha=0.25,
|
272
|
+
clip_on=True)
|
273
|
+
|
274
|
+
ax.set_xlim(lim)
|
275
|
+
ax.set_ylim(lim)
|
276
|
+
ax.set_xlabel(rf"Fitted $\tt {self._dist.name}$ Theoretical {qp}")
|
277
|
+
ax.set_ylabel(f"Data {qp}")
|
278
|
+
ax.set_title(rf"Fitted $\tt {self._dist.name}$ {plot_type} Plot")
|
279
|
+
ax.legend(*ax.get_legend_handles_labels())
|
280
|
+
ax.set_aspect('equal')
|
281
|
+
return ax
|
282
|
+
|
283
|
+
def _qq_plot(self, **kwargs):
|
284
|
+
return self._qp_plot(qq=True, **kwargs)
|
285
|
+
|
286
|
+
def _pp_plot(self, **kwargs):
|
287
|
+
return self._qp_plot(qq=False, **kwargs)
|
288
|
+
|
289
|
+
def _plotting_positions(self, n, a=.5):
|
290
|
+
# See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q%E2%80%93Q_plot#Plotting_positions
|
291
|
+
k = np.arange(1, n+1)
|
292
|
+
return (k-a) / (n + 1 - 2*a)
|
293
|
+
|
294
|
+
def _cdf_plot(self, ax, fit_params):
|
295
|
+
data = np.sort(self._data)
|
296
|
+
ecdf = self._plotting_positions(len(self._data))
|
297
|
+
ls = '--' if len(np.unique(data)) < 30 else '.'
|
298
|
+
xlabel = 'k' if self.discrete else 'x'
|
299
|
+
ax.step(data, ecdf, ls, label='Empirical CDF', color='C1', zorder=0)
|
300
|
+
|
301
|
+
xlim = ax.get_xlim()
|
302
|
+
q = np.linspace(*xlim, 300)
|
303
|
+
tcdf = self._dist.cdf(q, *fit_params)
|
304
|
+
|
305
|
+
ax.plot(q, tcdf, label='Fitted Distribution CDF', color='C0', zorder=1)
|
306
|
+
ax.set_xlim(xlim)
|
307
|
+
ax.set_ylim(0, 1)
|
308
|
+
ax.set_xlabel(xlabel)
|
309
|
+
ax.set_ylabel("CDF")
|
310
|
+
ax.set_title(rf"Fitted $\tt {self._dist.name}$ and Empirical CDF")
|
311
|
+
handles, labels = ax.get_legend_handles_labels()
|
312
|
+
ax.legend(handles[::-1], labels[::-1])
|
313
|
+
return ax
|
314
|
+
|
315
|
+
|
316
|
+
def fit(dist, data, bounds=None, *, guess=None, method='mle',
|
317
|
+
optimizer=optimize.differential_evolution):
|
318
|
+
r"""Fit a discrete or continuous distribution to data
|
319
|
+
|
320
|
+
Given a distribution, data, and bounds on the parameters of the
|
321
|
+
distribution, return maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters.
|
322
|
+
|
323
|
+
Parameters
|
324
|
+
----------
|
325
|
+
dist : `scipy.stats.rv_continuous` or `scipy.stats.rv_discrete`
|
326
|
+
The object representing the distribution to be fit to the data.
|
327
|
+
data : 1D array_like
|
328
|
+
The data to which the distribution is to be fit. If the data contain
|
329
|
+
any of ``np.nan``, ``np.inf``, or -``np.inf``, the fit method will
|
330
|
+
raise a ``ValueError``.
|
331
|
+
bounds : dict or sequence of tuples, optional
|
332
|
+
If a dictionary, each key is the name of a parameter of the
|
333
|
+
distribution, and the corresponding value is a tuple containing the
|
334
|
+
lower and upper bound on that parameter. If the distribution is
|
335
|
+
defined only for a finite range of values of that parameter, no entry
|
336
|
+
for that parameter is required; e.g., some distributions have
|
337
|
+
parameters which must be on the interval [0, 1]. Bounds for parameters
|
338
|
+
location (``loc``) and scale (``scale``) are optional; by default,
|
339
|
+
they are fixed to 0 and 1, respectively.
|
340
|
+
|
341
|
+
If a sequence, element *i* is a tuple containing the lower and upper
|
342
|
+
bound on the *i*\ th parameter of the distribution. In this case,
|
343
|
+
bounds for *all* distribution shape parameters must be provided.
|
344
|
+
Optionally, bounds for location and scale may follow the
|
345
|
+
distribution shape parameters.
|
346
|
+
|
347
|
+
If a shape is to be held fixed (e.g. if it is known), the
|
348
|
+
lower and upper bounds may be equal. If a user-provided lower or upper
|
349
|
+
bound is beyond a bound of the domain for which the distribution is
|
350
|
+
defined, the bound of the distribution's domain will replace the
|
351
|
+
user-provided value. Similarly, parameters which must be integral
|
352
|
+
will be constrained to integral values within the user-provided bounds.
|
353
|
+
guess : dict or array_like, optional
|
354
|
+
If a dictionary, each key is the name of a parameter of the
|
355
|
+
distribution, and the corresponding value is a guess for the value
|
356
|
+
of the parameter.
|
357
|
+
|
358
|
+
If a sequence, element *i* is a guess for the *i*\ th parameter of the
|
359
|
+
distribution. In this case, guesses for *all* distribution shape
|
360
|
+
parameters must be provided.
|
361
|
+
|
362
|
+
If `guess` is not provided, guesses for the decision variables will
|
363
|
+
not be passed to the optimizer. If `guess` is provided, guesses for
|
364
|
+
any missing parameters will be set at the mean of the lower and
|
365
|
+
upper bounds. Guesses for parameters which must be integral will be
|
366
|
+
rounded to integral values, and guesses that lie outside the
|
367
|
+
intersection of the user-provided bounds and the domain of the
|
368
|
+
distribution will be clipped.
|
369
|
+
method : {'mle', 'mse'}
|
370
|
+
With ``method="mle"`` (default), the fit is computed by minimizing
|
371
|
+
the negative log-likelihood function. A large, finite penalty
|
372
|
+
(rather than infinite negative log-likelihood) is applied for
|
373
|
+
observations beyond the support of the distribution.
|
374
|
+
With ``method="mse"``, the fit is computed by minimizing
|
375
|
+
the negative log-product spacing function. The same penalty is applied
|
376
|
+
for observations beyond the support. We follow the approach of [1]_,
|
377
|
+
which is generalized for samples with repeated observations.
|
378
|
+
optimizer : callable, optional
|
379
|
+
`optimizer` is a callable that accepts the following positional
|
380
|
+
argument.
|
381
|
+
|
382
|
+
fun : callable
|
383
|
+
The objective function to be optimized. `fun` accepts one argument
|
384
|
+
``x``, candidate shape parameters of the distribution, and returns
|
385
|
+
the objective function value given ``x``, `dist`, and the provided
|
386
|
+
`data`.
|
387
|
+
The job of `optimizer` is to find values of the decision variables
|
388
|
+
that minimizes `fun`.
|
389
|
+
|
390
|
+
`optimizer` must also accept the following keyword argument.
|
391
|
+
|
392
|
+
bounds : sequence of tuples
|
393
|
+
The bounds on values of the decision variables; each element will
|
394
|
+
be a tuple containing the lower and upper bound on a decision
|
395
|
+
variable.
|
396
|
+
|
397
|
+
If `guess` is provided, `optimizer` must also accept the following
|
398
|
+
keyword argument.
|
399
|
+
|
400
|
+
x0 : array_like
|
401
|
+
The guesses for each decision variable.
|
402
|
+
|
403
|
+
If the distribution has any shape parameters that must be integral or
|
404
|
+
if the distribution is discrete and the location parameter is not
|
405
|
+
fixed, `optimizer` must also accept the following keyword argument.
|
406
|
+
|
407
|
+
integrality : array_like of bools
|
408
|
+
For each decision variable, True if the decision variable
|
409
|
+
must be constrained to integer values and False if the decision
|
410
|
+
variable is continuous.
|
411
|
+
|
412
|
+
`optimizer` must return an object, such as an instance of
|
413
|
+
`scipy.optimize.OptimizeResult`, which holds the optimal values of
|
414
|
+
the decision variables in an attribute ``x``. If attributes
|
415
|
+
``fun``, ``status``, or ``message`` are provided, they will be
|
416
|
+
included in the result object returned by `fit`.
|
417
|
+
|
418
|
+
Returns
|
419
|
+
-------
|
420
|
+
result : `~scipy.stats._result_classes.FitResult`
|
421
|
+
An object with the following fields.
|
422
|
+
|
423
|
+
params : namedtuple
|
424
|
+
A namedtuple containing the maximum likelihood estimates of the
|
425
|
+
shape parameters, location, and (if applicable) scale of the
|
426
|
+
distribution.
|
427
|
+
success : bool or None
|
428
|
+
Whether the optimizer considered the optimization to terminate
|
429
|
+
successfully or not.
|
430
|
+
message : str or None
|
431
|
+
Any status message provided by the optimizer.
|
432
|
+
|
433
|
+
The object has the following method:
|
434
|
+
|
435
|
+
nllf(params=None, data=None)
|
436
|
+
By default, the negative log-likelihood function at the fitted
|
437
|
+
`params` for the given `data`. Accepts a tuple containing
|
438
|
+
alternative shapes, location, and scale of the distribution and
|
439
|
+
an array of alternative data.
|
440
|
+
|
441
|
+
plot(ax=None)
|
442
|
+
Superposes the PDF/PMF of the fitted distribution over a normalized
|
443
|
+
histogram of the data.
|
444
|
+
|
445
|
+
See Also
|
446
|
+
--------
|
447
|
+
rv_continuous, rv_discrete
|
448
|
+
|
449
|
+
Notes
|
450
|
+
-----
|
451
|
+
Optimization is more likely to converge to the maximum likelihood estimate
|
452
|
+
when the user provides tight bounds containing the maximum likelihood
|
453
|
+
estimate. For example, when fitting a binomial distribution to data, the
|
454
|
+
number of experiments underlying each sample may be known, in which case
|
455
|
+
the corresponding shape parameter ``n`` can be fixed.
|
456
|
+
|
457
|
+
References
|
458
|
+
----------
|
459
|
+
.. [1] Shao, Yongzhao, and Marjorie G. Hahn. "Maximum product of spacings
|
460
|
+
method: a unified formulation with illustration of strong
|
461
|
+
consistency." Illinois Journal of Mathematics 43.3 (1999): 489-499.
|
462
|
+
|
463
|
+
Examples
|
464
|
+
--------
|
465
|
+
Suppose we wish to fit a distribution to the following data.
|
466
|
+
|
467
|
+
>>> import numpy as np
|
468
|
+
>>> from scipy import stats
|
469
|
+
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng()
|
470
|
+
>>> dist = stats.nbinom
|
471
|
+
>>> shapes = (5, 0.5)
|
472
|
+
>>> data = dist.rvs(*shapes, size=1000, random_state=rng)
|
473
|
+
|
474
|
+
Suppose we do not know how the data were generated, but we suspect that
|
475
|
+
it follows a negative binomial distribution with parameters *n* and *p*\.
|
476
|
+
(See `scipy.stats.nbinom`.) We believe that the parameter *n* was fewer
|
477
|
+
than 30, and we know that the parameter *p* must lie on the interval
|
478
|
+
[0, 1]. We record this information in a variable `bounds` and pass
|
479
|
+
this information to `fit`.
|
480
|
+
|
481
|
+
>>> bounds = [(0, 30), (0, 1)]
|
482
|
+
>>> res = stats.fit(dist, data, bounds)
|
483
|
+
|
484
|
+
`fit` searches within the user-specified `bounds` for the
|
485
|
+
values that best match the data (in the sense of maximum likelihood
|
486
|
+
estimation). In this case, it found shape values similar to those
|
487
|
+
from which the data were actually generated.
|
488
|
+
|
489
|
+
>>> res.params
|
490
|
+
FitParams(n=5.0, p=0.5028157644634368, loc=0.0) # may vary
|
491
|
+
|
492
|
+
We can visualize the results by superposing the probability mass function
|
493
|
+
of the distribution (with the shapes fit to the data) over a normalized
|
494
|
+
histogram of the data.
|
495
|
+
|
496
|
+
>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # matplotlib must be installed to plot
|
497
|
+
>>> res.plot()
|
498
|
+
>>> plt.show()
|
499
|
+
|
500
|
+
Note that the estimate for *n* was exactly integral; this is because
|
501
|
+
the domain of the `nbinom` PMF includes only integral *n*, and the `nbinom`
|
502
|
+
object "knows" that. `nbinom` also knows that the shape *p* must be a
|
503
|
+
value between 0 and 1. In such a case - when the domain of the distribution
|
504
|
+
with respect to a parameter is finite - we are not required to specify
|
505
|
+
bounds for the parameter.
|
506
|
+
|
507
|
+
>>> bounds = {'n': (0, 30)} # omit parameter p using a `dict`
|
508
|
+
>>> res2 = stats.fit(dist, data, bounds)
|
509
|
+
>>> res2.params
|
510
|
+
FitParams(n=5.0, p=0.5016492009232932, loc=0.0) # may vary
|
511
|
+
|
512
|
+
If we wish to force the distribution to be fit with *n* fixed at 6, we can
|
513
|
+
set both the lower and upper bounds on *n* to 6. Note, however, that the
|
514
|
+
value of the objective function being optimized is typically worse (higher)
|
515
|
+
in this case.
|
516
|
+
|
517
|
+
>>> bounds = {'n': (6, 6)} # fix parameter `n`
|
518
|
+
>>> res3 = stats.fit(dist, data, bounds)
|
519
|
+
>>> res3.params
|
520
|
+
FitParams(n=6.0, p=0.5486556076755706, loc=0.0) # may vary
|
521
|
+
>>> res3.nllf() > res.nllf()
|
522
|
+
True # may vary
|
523
|
+
|
524
|
+
Note that the numerical results of the previous examples are typical, but
|
525
|
+
they may vary because the default optimizer used by `fit`,
|
526
|
+
`scipy.optimize.differential_evolution`, is stochastic. However, we can
|
527
|
+
customize the settings used by the optimizer to ensure reproducibility -
|
528
|
+
or even use a different optimizer entirely - using the `optimizer`
|
529
|
+
parameter.
|
530
|
+
|
531
|
+
>>> from scipy.optimize import differential_evolution
|
532
|
+
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng(767585560716548)
|
533
|
+
>>> def optimizer(fun, bounds, *, integrality):
|
534
|
+
... return differential_evolution(fun, bounds, strategy='best2bin',
|
535
|
+
... rng=rng, integrality=integrality)
|
536
|
+
>>> bounds = [(0, 30), (0, 1)]
|
537
|
+
>>> res4 = stats.fit(dist, data, bounds, optimizer=optimizer)
|
538
|
+
>>> res4.params
|
539
|
+
FitParams(n=5.0, p=0.5015183149259951, loc=0.0)
|
540
|
+
|
541
|
+
"""
|
542
|
+
# --- Input Validation / Standardization --- #
|
543
|
+
user_bounds = bounds
|
544
|
+
user_guess = guess
|
545
|
+
|
546
|
+
# distribution input validation and information collection
|
547
|
+
if hasattr(dist, "pdf"): # can't use isinstance for types
|
548
|
+
default_bounds = {'loc': (0, 0), 'scale': (1, 1)}
|
549
|
+
discrete = False
|
550
|
+
elif hasattr(dist, "pmf"):
|
551
|
+
default_bounds = {'loc': (0, 0)}
|
552
|
+
discrete = True
|
553
|
+
else:
|
554
|
+
message = ("`dist` must be an instance of `rv_continuous` "
|
555
|
+
"or `rv_discrete.`")
|
556
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
557
|
+
|
558
|
+
try:
|
559
|
+
param_info = dist._param_info()
|
560
|
+
except AttributeError as e:
|
561
|
+
message = (f"Distribution `{dist.name}` is not yet supported by "
|
562
|
+
"`scipy.stats.fit` because shape information has "
|
563
|
+
"not been defined.")
|
564
|
+
raise ValueError(message) from e
|
565
|
+
|
566
|
+
# data input validation
|
567
|
+
data = np.asarray(data)
|
568
|
+
if data.ndim != 1:
|
569
|
+
message = "`data` must be exactly one-dimensional."
|
570
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
571
|
+
if not (np.issubdtype(data.dtype, np.number)
|
572
|
+
and np.all(np.isfinite(data))):
|
573
|
+
message = "All elements of `data` must be finite numbers."
|
574
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
575
|
+
|
576
|
+
# bounds input validation and information collection
|
577
|
+
n_params = len(param_info)
|
578
|
+
n_shapes = n_params - (1 if discrete else 2)
|
579
|
+
param_list = [param.name for param in param_info]
|
580
|
+
param_names = ", ".join(param_list)
|
581
|
+
shape_names = ", ".join(param_list[:n_shapes])
|
582
|
+
|
583
|
+
if user_bounds is None:
|
584
|
+
user_bounds = {}
|
585
|
+
|
586
|
+
if isinstance(user_bounds, dict):
|
587
|
+
default_bounds.update(user_bounds)
|
588
|
+
user_bounds = default_bounds
|
589
|
+
user_bounds_array = np.empty((n_params, 2))
|
590
|
+
for i in range(n_params):
|
591
|
+
param_name = param_info[i].name
|
592
|
+
user_bound = user_bounds.pop(param_name, None)
|
593
|
+
if user_bound is None:
|
594
|
+
user_bound = param_info[i].domain
|
595
|
+
user_bounds_array[i] = user_bound
|
596
|
+
if user_bounds:
|
597
|
+
message = ("Bounds provided for the following unrecognized "
|
598
|
+
f"parameters will be ignored: {set(user_bounds)}")
|
599
|
+
warnings.warn(message, RuntimeWarning, stacklevel=2)
|
600
|
+
|
601
|
+
else:
|
602
|
+
try:
|
603
|
+
user_bounds = np.asarray(user_bounds, dtype=float)
|
604
|
+
if user_bounds.size == 0:
|
605
|
+
user_bounds = np.empty((0, 2))
|
606
|
+
except ValueError as e:
|
607
|
+
message = ("Each element of a `bounds` sequence must be a tuple "
|
608
|
+
"containing two elements: the lower and upper bound of "
|
609
|
+
"a distribution parameter.")
|
610
|
+
raise ValueError(message) from e
|
611
|
+
if (user_bounds.ndim != 2 or user_bounds.shape[1] != 2):
|
612
|
+
message = ("Each element of `bounds` must be a tuple specifying "
|
613
|
+
"the lower and upper bounds of a shape parameter")
|
614
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
615
|
+
if user_bounds.shape[0] < n_shapes:
|
616
|
+
message = (f"A `bounds` sequence must contain at least {n_shapes} "
|
617
|
+
"elements: tuples specifying the lower and upper "
|
618
|
+
f"bounds of all shape parameters {shape_names}.")
|
619
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
620
|
+
if user_bounds.shape[0] > n_params:
|
621
|
+
message = ("A `bounds` sequence may not contain more than "
|
622
|
+
f"{n_params} elements: tuples specifying the lower and "
|
623
|
+
"upper bounds of distribution parameters "
|
624
|
+
f"{param_names}.")
|
625
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
626
|
+
|
627
|
+
user_bounds_array = np.empty((n_params, 2))
|
628
|
+
user_bounds_array[n_shapes:] = list(default_bounds.values())
|
629
|
+
user_bounds_array[:len(user_bounds)] = user_bounds
|
630
|
+
|
631
|
+
user_bounds = user_bounds_array
|
632
|
+
validated_bounds = []
|
633
|
+
for i in range(n_params):
|
634
|
+
name = param_info[i].name
|
635
|
+
user_bound = user_bounds_array[i]
|
636
|
+
param_domain = param_info[i].domain
|
637
|
+
integral = param_info[i].integrality
|
638
|
+
combined = _combine_bounds(name, user_bound, param_domain, integral)
|
639
|
+
validated_bounds.append(combined)
|
640
|
+
|
641
|
+
bounds = np.asarray(validated_bounds)
|
642
|
+
integrality = [param.integrality for param in param_info]
|
643
|
+
|
644
|
+
# guess input validation
|
645
|
+
|
646
|
+
if user_guess is None:
|
647
|
+
guess_array = None
|
648
|
+
elif isinstance(user_guess, dict):
|
649
|
+
default_guess = {param.name: np.mean(bound)
|
650
|
+
for param, bound in zip(param_info, bounds)}
|
651
|
+
unrecognized = set(user_guess) - set(default_guess)
|
652
|
+
if unrecognized:
|
653
|
+
message = ("Guesses provided for the following unrecognized "
|
654
|
+
f"parameters will be ignored: {unrecognized}")
|
655
|
+
warnings.warn(message, RuntimeWarning, stacklevel=2)
|
656
|
+
default_guess.update(user_guess)
|
657
|
+
|
658
|
+
message = ("Each element of `guess` must be a scalar "
|
659
|
+
"guess for a distribution parameter.")
|
660
|
+
try:
|
661
|
+
guess_array = np.asarray([default_guess[param.name]
|
662
|
+
for param in param_info], dtype=float)
|
663
|
+
except ValueError as e:
|
664
|
+
raise ValueError(message) from e
|
665
|
+
|
666
|
+
else:
|
667
|
+
message = ("Each element of `guess` must be a scalar "
|
668
|
+
"guess for a distribution parameter.")
|
669
|
+
try:
|
670
|
+
user_guess = np.asarray(user_guess, dtype=float)
|
671
|
+
except ValueError as e:
|
672
|
+
raise ValueError(message) from e
|
673
|
+
if user_guess.ndim != 1:
|
674
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
675
|
+
if user_guess.shape[0] < n_shapes:
|
676
|
+
message = (f"A `guess` sequence must contain at least {n_shapes} "
|
677
|
+
"elements: scalar guesses for the distribution shape "
|
678
|
+
f"parameters {shape_names}.")
|
679
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
680
|
+
if user_guess.shape[0] > n_params:
|
681
|
+
message = ("A `guess` sequence may not contain more than "
|
682
|
+
f"{n_params} elements: scalar guesses for the "
|
683
|
+
f"distribution parameters {param_names}.")
|
684
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
685
|
+
|
686
|
+
guess_array = np.mean(bounds, axis=1)
|
687
|
+
guess_array[:len(user_guess)] = user_guess
|
688
|
+
|
689
|
+
if guess_array is not None:
|
690
|
+
guess_rounded = guess_array.copy()
|
691
|
+
|
692
|
+
guess_rounded[integrality] = np.round(guess_rounded[integrality])
|
693
|
+
rounded = np.where(guess_rounded != guess_array)[0]
|
694
|
+
for i in rounded:
|
695
|
+
message = (f"Guess for parameter `{param_info[i].name}` "
|
696
|
+
f"rounded from {guess_array[i]} to {guess_rounded[i]}.")
|
697
|
+
warnings.warn(message, RuntimeWarning, stacklevel=2)
|
698
|
+
|
699
|
+
guess_clipped = np.clip(guess_rounded, bounds[:, 0], bounds[:, 1])
|
700
|
+
clipped = np.where(guess_clipped != guess_rounded)[0]
|
701
|
+
for i in clipped:
|
702
|
+
message = (f"Guess for parameter `{param_info[i].name}` "
|
703
|
+
f"clipped from {guess_rounded[i]} to "
|
704
|
+
f"{guess_clipped[i]}.")
|
705
|
+
warnings.warn(message, RuntimeWarning, stacklevel=2)
|
706
|
+
|
707
|
+
guess = guess_clipped
|
708
|
+
else:
|
709
|
+
guess = None
|
710
|
+
|
711
|
+
# --- Fitting --- #
|
712
|
+
def nllf(free_params, data=data): # bind data NOW
|
713
|
+
with np.errstate(invalid='ignore', divide='ignore'):
|
714
|
+
return dist._penalized_nnlf(free_params, data)
|
715
|
+
|
716
|
+
def nlpsf(free_params, data=data): # bind data NOW
|
717
|
+
with np.errstate(invalid='ignore', divide='ignore'):
|
718
|
+
return dist._penalized_nlpsf(free_params, data)
|
719
|
+
|
720
|
+
methods = {'mle': nllf, 'mse': nlpsf}
|
721
|
+
objective = methods[method.lower()]
|
722
|
+
|
723
|
+
with np.errstate(invalid='ignore', divide='ignore'):
|
724
|
+
kwds = {}
|
725
|
+
if bounds is not None:
|
726
|
+
kwds['bounds'] = bounds
|
727
|
+
if np.any(integrality):
|
728
|
+
kwds['integrality'] = integrality
|
729
|
+
if guess is not None:
|
730
|
+
kwds['x0'] = guess
|
731
|
+
res = optimizer(objective, **kwds)
|
732
|
+
|
733
|
+
return FitResult(dist, data, discrete, res)
|
734
|
+
|
735
|
+
|
736
|
+
GoodnessOfFitResult = namedtuple('GoodnessOfFitResult',
|
737
|
+
('fit_result', 'statistic', 'pvalue',
|
738
|
+
'null_distribution'))
|
739
|
+
|
740
|
+
|
741
|
+
@_transition_to_rng('random_state')
|
742
|
+
def goodness_of_fit(dist, data, *, known_params=None, fit_params=None,
|
743
|
+
guessed_params=None, statistic='ad', n_mc_samples=9999,
|
744
|
+
rng=None):
|
745
|
+
r"""
|
746
|
+
Perform a goodness of fit test comparing data to a distribution family.
|
747
|
+
|
748
|
+
Given a distribution family and data, perform a test of the null hypothesis
|
749
|
+
that the data were drawn from a distribution in that family. Any known
|
750
|
+
parameters of the distribution may be specified. Remaining parameters of
|
751
|
+
the distribution will be fit to the data, and the p-value of the test
|
752
|
+
is computed accordingly. Several statistics for comparing the distribution
|
753
|
+
to data are available.
|
754
|
+
|
755
|
+
Parameters
|
756
|
+
----------
|
757
|
+
dist : `scipy.stats.rv_continuous`
|
758
|
+
The object representing the distribution family under the null
|
759
|
+
hypothesis.
|
760
|
+
data : 1D array_like
|
761
|
+
Finite, uncensored data to be tested.
|
762
|
+
known_params : dict, optional
|
763
|
+
A dictionary containing name-value pairs of known distribution
|
764
|
+
parameters. Monte Carlo samples are randomly drawn from the
|
765
|
+
null-hypothesized distribution with these values of the parameters.
|
766
|
+
Before the statistic is evaluated for the observed `data` and each
|
767
|
+
Monte Carlo sample, only remaining unknown parameters of the
|
768
|
+
null-hypothesized distribution family are fit to the samples; the
|
769
|
+
known parameters are held fixed. If all parameters of the distribution
|
770
|
+
family are known, then the step of fitting the distribution family to
|
771
|
+
each sample is omitted.
|
772
|
+
fit_params : dict, optional
|
773
|
+
A dictionary containing name-value pairs of distribution parameters
|
774
|
+
that have already been fit to the data, e.g. using `scipy.stats.fit`
|
775
|
+
or the ``fit`` method of `dist`. Monte Carlo samples are drawn from the
|
776
|
+
null-hypothesized distribution with these specified values of the
|
777
|
+
parameter. However, these and all other unknown parameters of the
|
778
|
+
null-hypothesized distribution family are always fit to the sample,
|
779
|
+
whether that is the observed `data` or a Monte Carlo sample, before
|
780
|
+
the statistic is evaluated.
|
781
|
+
guessed_params : dict, optional
|
782
|
+
A dictionary containing name-value pairs of distribution parameters
|
783
|
+
which have been guessed. These parameters are always considered as
|
784
|
+
free parameters and are fit both to the provided `data` as well as
|
785
|
+
to the Monte Carlo samples drawn from the null-hypothesized
|
786
|
+
distribution. The purpose of these `guessed_params` is to be used as
|
787
|
+
initial values for the numerical fitting procedure.
|
788
|
+
statistic : {"ad", "ks", "cvm", "filliben"} or callable, optional
|
789
|
+
The statistic used to compare data to a distribution after fitting
|
790
|
+
unknown parameters of the distribution family to the data. The
|
791
|
+
Anderson-Darling ("ad") [1]_, Kolmogorov-Smirnov ("ks") [1]_,
|
792
|
+
Cramer-von Mises ("cvm") [1]_, and Filliben ("filliben") [7]_
|
793
|
+
statistics are available. Alternatively, a callable with signature
|
794
|
+
``(dist, data, axis)`` may be supplied to compute the statistic. Here
|
795
|
+
``dist`` is a frozen distribution object (potentially with array
|
796
|
+
parameters), ``data`` is an array of Monte Carlo samples (of
|
797
|
+
compatible shape), and ``axis`` is the axis of ``data`` along which
|
798
|
+
the statistic must be computed.
|
799
|
+
n_mc_samples : int, default: 9999
|
800
|
+
The number of Monte Carlo samples drawn from the null hypothesized
|
801
|
+
distribution to form the null distribution of the statistic. The
|
802
|
+
sample size of each is the same as the given `data`.
|
803
|
+
rng : `numpy.random.Generator`, optional
|
804
|
+
Pseudorandom number generator state. When `rng` is None, a new
|
805
|
+
`numpy.random.Generator` is created using entropy from the
|
806
|
+
operating system. Types other than `numpy.random.Generator` are
|
807
|
+
passed to `numpy.random.default_rng` to instantiate a ``Generator``.
|
808
|
+
|
809
|
+
Returns
|
810
|
+
-------
|
811
|
+
res : GoodnessOfFitResult
|
812
|
+
An object with the following attributes.
|
813
|
+
|
814
|
+
fit_result : `~scipy.stats._result_classes.FitResult`
|
815
|
+
An object representing the fit of the provided `dist` to `data`.
|
816
|
+
This object includes the values of distribution family parameters
|
817
|
+
that fully define the null-hypothesized distribution, that is,
|
818
|
+
the distribution from which Monte Carlo samples are drawn.
|
819
|
+
statistic : float
|
820
|
+
The value of the statistic comparing provided `data` to the
|
821
|
+
null-hypothesized distribution.
|
822
|
+
pvalue : float
|
823
|
+
The proportion of elements in the null distribution with
|
824
|
+
statistic values at least as extreme as the statistic value of the
|
825
|
+
provided `data`.
|
826
|
+
null_distribution : ndarray
|
827
|
+
The value of the statistic for each Monte Carlo sample
|
828
|
+
drawn from the null-hypothesized distribution.
|
829
|
+
|
830
|
+
Notes
|
831
|
+
-----
|
832
|
+
This is a generalized Monte Carlo goodness-of-fit procedure, special cases
|
833
|
+
of which correspond with various Anderson-Darling tests, Lilliefors' test,
|
834
|
+
etc. The test is described in [2]_, [3]_, and [4]_ as a parametric
|
835
|
+
bootstrap test. This is a Monte Carlo test in which parameters that
|
836
|
+
specify the distribution from which samples are drawn have been estimated
|
837
|
+
from the data. We describe the test using "Monte Carlo" rather than
|
838
|
+
"parametric bootstrap" throughout to avoid confusion with the more familiar
|
839
|
+
nonparametric bootstrap, and describe how the test is performed below.
|
840
|
+
|
841
|
+
*Traditional goodness of fit tests*
|
842
|
+
|
843
|
+
Traditionally, critical values corresponding with a fixed set of
|
844
|
+
significance levels are pre-calculated using Monte Carlo methods. Users
|
845
|
+
perform the test by calculating the value of the test statistic only for
|
846
|
+
their observed `data` and comparing this value to tabulated critical
|
847
|
+
values. This practice is not very flexible, as tables are not available for
|
848
|
+
all distributions and combinations of known and unknown parameter values.
|
849
|
+
Also, results can be inaccurate when critical values are interpolated from
|
850
|
+
limited tabulated data to correspond with the user's sample size and
|
851
|
+
fitted parameter values. To overcome these shortcomings, this function
|
852
|
+
allows the user to perform the Monte Carlo trials adapted to their
|
853
|
+
particular data.
|
854
|
+
|
855
|
+
*Algorithmic overview*
|
856
|
+
|
857
|
+
In brief, this routine executes the following steps:
|
858
|
+
|
859
|
+
1. Fit unknown parameters to the given `data`, thereby forming the
|
860
|
+
"null-hypothesized" distribution, and compute the statistic of
|
861
|
+
this pair of data and distribution.
|
862
|
+
2. Draw random samples from this null-hypothesized distribution.
|
863
|
+
3. Fit the unknown parameters to each random sample.
|
864
|
+
4. Calculate the statistic between each sample and the distribution that
|
865
|
+
has been fit to the sample.
|
866
|
+
5. Compare the value of the statistic corresponding with `data` from (1)
|
867
|
+
against the values of the statistic corresponding with the random
|
868
|
+
samples from (4). The p-value is the proportion of samples with a
|
869
|
+
statistic value greater than or equal to the statistic of the observed
|
870
|
+
data.
|
871
|
+
|
872
|
+
In more detail, the steps are as follows.
|
873
|
+
|
874
|
+
First, any unknown parameters of the distribution family specified by
|
875
|
+
`dist` are fit to the provided `data` using maximum likelihood estimation.
|
876
|
+
(One exception is the normal distribution with unknown location and scale:
|
877
|
+
we use the bias-corrected standard deviation ``np.std(data, ddof=1)`` for
|
878
|
+
the scale as recommended in [1]_.)
|
879
|
+
These values of the parameters specify a particular member of the
|
880
|
+
distribution family referred to as the "null-hypothesized distribution",
|
881
|
+
that is, the distribution from which the data were sampled under the null
|
882
|
+
hypothesis. The `statistic`, which compares data to a distribution, is
|
883
|
+
computed between `data` and the null-hypothesized distribution.
|
884
|
+
|
885
|
+
Next, many (specifically `n_mc_samples`) new samples, each containing the
|
886
|
+
same number of observations as `data`, are drawn from the
|
887
|
+
null-hypothesized distribution. All unknown parameters of the distribution
|
888
|
+
family `dist` are fit to *each resample*, and the `statistic` is computed
|
889
|
+
between each sample and its corresponding fitted distribution. These
|
890
|
+
values of the statistic form the Monte Carlo null distribution (not to be
|
891
|
+
confused with the "null-hypothesized distribution" above).
|
892
|
+
|
893
|
+
The p-value of the test is the proportion of statistic values in the Monte
|
894
|
+
Carlo null distribution that are at least as extreme as the statistic value
|
895
|
+
of the provided `data`. More precisely, the p-value is given by
|
896
|
+
|
897
|
+
.. math::
|
898
|
+
|
899
|
+
p = \frac{b + 1}
|
900
|
+
{m + 1}
|
901
|
+
|
902
|
+
where :math:`b` is the number of statistic values in the Monte Carlo null
|
903
|
+
distribution that are greater than or equal to the statistic value
|
904
|
+
calculated for `data`, and :math:`m` is the number of elements in the
|
905
|
+
Monte Carlo null distribution (`n_mc_samples`). The addition of :math:`1`
|
906
|
+
to the numerator and denominator can be thought of as including the
|
907
|
+
value of the statistic corresponding with `data` in the null distribution,
|
908
|
+
but a more formal explanation is given in [5]_.
|
909
|
+
|
910
|
+
*Limitations*
|
911
|
+
|
912
|
+
The test can be very slow for some distribution families because unknown
|
913
|
+
parameters of the distribution family must be fit to each of the Monte
|
914
|
+
Carlo samples, and for most distributions in SciPy, distribution fitting
|
915
|
+
performed via numerical optimization.
|
916
|
+
|
917
|
+
*Anti-Pattern*
|
918
|
+
|
919
|
+
For this reason, it may be tempting
|
920
|
+
to treat parameters of the distribution pre-fit to `data` (by the user)
|
921
|
+
as though they were `known_params`, as specification of all parameters of
|
922
|
+
the distribution precludes the need to fit the distribution to each Monte
|
923
|
+
Carlo sample. (This is essentially how the original Kilmogorov-Smirnov
|
924
|
+
test is performed.) Although such a test can provide evidence against the
|
925
|
+
null hypothesis, the test is conservative in the sense that small p-values
|
926
|
+
will tend to (greatly) *overestimate* the probability of making a type I
|
927
|
+
error (that is, rejecting the null hypothesis although it is true), and the
|
928
|
+
power of the test is low (that is, it is less likely to reject the null
|
929
|
+
hypothesis even when the null hypothesis is false).
|
930
|
+
This is because the Monte Carlo samples are less likely to agree with the
|
931
|
+
null-hypothesized distribution as well as `data`. This tends to increase
|
932
|
+
the values of the statistic recorded in the null distribution, so that a
|
933
|
+
larger number of them exceed the value of statistic for `data`, thereby
|
934
|
+
inflating the p-value.
|
935
|
+
|
936
|
+
References
|
937
|
+
----------
|
938
|
+
.. [1] M. A. Stephens (1974). "EDF Statistics for Goodness of Fit and
|
939
|
+
Some Comparisons." Journal of the American Statistical Association,
|
940
|
+
Vol. 69, pp. 730-737.
|
941
|
+
.. [2] W. Stute, W. G. Manteiga, and M. P. Quindimil (1993).
|
942
|
+
"Bootstrap based goodness-of-fit-tests." Metrika 40.1: 243-256.
|
943
|
+
.. [3] C. Genest, & B Rémillard. (2008). "Validity of the parametric
|
944
|
+
bootstrap for goodness-of-fit testing in semiparametric models."
|
945
|
+
Annales de l'IHP Probabilités et statistiques. Vol. 44. No. 6.
|
946
|
+
.. [4] I. Kojadinovic and J. Yan (2012). "Goodness-of-fit testing based on
|
947
|
+
a weighted bootstrap: A fast large-sample alternative to the
|
948
|
+
parametric bootstrap." Canadian Journal of Statistics 40.3: 480-500.
|
949
|
+
.. [5] B. Phipson and G. K. Smyth (2010). "Permutation P-values Should
|
950
|
+
Never Be Zero: Calculating Exact P-values When Permutations Are
|
951
|
+
Randomly Drawn." Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular
|
952
|
+
Biology 9.1.
|
953
|
+
.. [6] H. W. Lilliefors (1967). "On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for
|
954
|
+
normality with mean and variance unknown." Journal of the American
|
955
|
+
statistical Association 62.318: 399-402.
|
956
|
+
.. [7] Filliben, James J. "The probability plot correlation coefficient
|
957
|
+
test for normality." Technometrics 17.1 (1975): 111-117.
|
958
|
+
|
959
|
+
Examples
|
960
|
+
--------
|
961
|
+
A well-known test of the null hypothesis that data were drawn from a
|
962
|
+
given distribution is the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, available in SciPy
|
963
|
+
as `scipy.stats.ks_1samp`. Suppose we wish to test whether the following
|
964
|
+
data:
|
965
|
+
|
966
|
+
>>> import numpy as np
|
967
|
+
>>> from scipy import stats
|
968
|
+
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng()
|
969
|
+
>>> x = stats.uniform.rvs(size=75, random_state=rng)
|
970
|
+
|
971
|
+
were sampled from a normal distribution. To perform a KS test, the
|
972
|
+
empirical distribution function of the observed data will be compared
|
973
|
+
against the (theoretical) cumulative distribution function of a normal
|
974
|
+
distribution. Of course, to do this, the normal distribution under the null
|
975
|
+
hypothesis must be fully specified. This is commonly done by first fitting
|
976
|
+
the ``loc`` and ``scale`` parameters of the distribution to the observed
|
977
|
+
data, then performing the test.
|
978
|
+
|
979
|
+
>>> loc, scale = np.mean(x), np.std(x, ddof=1)
|
980
|
+
>>> cdf = stats.norm(loc, scale).cdf
|
981
|
+
>>> stats.ks_1samp(x, cdf)
|
982
|
+
KstestResult(statistic=0.1119257570456813,
|
983
|
+
pvalue=0.2827756409939257,
|
984
|
+
statistic_location=0.7751845155861765,
|
985
|
+
statistic_sign=-1)
|
986
|
+
|
987
|
+
An advantage of the KS-test is that the p-value - the probability of
|
988
|
+
obtaining a value of the test statistic under the null hypothesis as
|
989
|
+
extreme as the value obtained from the observed data - can be calculated
|
990
|
+
exactly and efficiently. `goodness_of_fit` can only approximate these
|
991
|
+
results.
|
992
|
+
|
993
|
+
>>> known_params = {'loc': loc, 'scale': scale}
|
994
|
+
>>> res = stats.goodness_of_fit(stats.norm, x, known_params=known_params,
|
995
|
+
... statistic='ks', rng=rng)
|
996
|
+
>>> res.statistic, res.pvalue
|
997
|
+
(0.1119257570456813, 0.2788)
|
998
|
+
|
999
|
+
The statistic matches exactly, but the p-value is estimated by forming
|
1000
|
+
a "Monte Carlo null distribution", that is, by explicitly drawing random
|
1001
|
+
samples from `scipy.stats.norm` with the provided parameters and
|
1002
|
+
calculating the stastic for each. The fraction of these statistic values
|
1003
|
+
at least as extreme as ``res.statistic`` approximates the exact p-value
|
1004
|
+
calculated by `scipy.stats.ks_1samp`.
|
1005
|
+
|
1006
|
+
However, in many cases, we would prefer to test only that the data were
|
1007
|
+
sampled from one of *any* member of the normal distribution family, not
|
1008
|
+
specifically from the normal distribution with the location and scale
|
1009
|
+
fitted to the observed sample. In this case, Lilliefors [6]_ argued that
|
1010
|
+
the KS test is far too conservative (that is, the p-value overstates
|
1011
|
+
the actual probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis) and thus lacks
|
1012
|
+
power - the ability to reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis
|
1013
|
+
is actually false.
|
1014
|
+
Indeed, our p-value above is approximately 0.28, which is far too large
|
1015
|
+
to reject the null hypothesis at any common significance level.
|
1016
|
+
|
1017
|
+
Consider why this might be. Note that in the KS test above, the statistic
|
1018
|
+
always compares data against the CDF of a normal distribution fitted to the
|
1019
|
+
*observed data*. This tends to reduce the value of the statistic for the
|
1020
|
+
observed data, but it is "unfair" when computing the statistic for other
|
1021
|
+
samples, such as those we randomly draw to form the Monte Carlo null
|
1022
|
+
distribution. It is easy to correct for this: whenever we compute the KS
|
1023
|
+
statistic of a sample, we use the CDF of a normal distribution fitted
|
1024
|
+
to *that sample*. The null distribution in this case has not been
|
1025
|
+
calculated exactly and is tyically approximated using Monte Carlo methods
|
1026
|
+
as described above. This is where `goodness_of_fit` excels.
|
1027
|
+
|
1028
|
+
>>> res = stats.goodness_of_fit(stats.norm, x, statistic='ks',
|
1029
|
+
... rng=rng)
|
1030
|
+
>>> res.statistic, res.pvalue
|
1031
|
+
(0.1119257570456813, 0.0196)
|
1032
|
+
|
1033
|
+
Indeed, this p-value is much smaller, and small enough to (correctly)
|
1034
|
+
reject the null hypothesis at common significance levels, including 5% and
|
1035
|
+
2.5%.
|
1036
|
+
|
1037
|
+
However, the KS statistic is not very sensitive to all deviations from
|
1038
|
+
normality. The original advantage of the KS statistic was the ability
|
1039
|
+
to compute the null distribution theoretically, but a more sensitive
|
1040
|
+
statistic - resulting in a higher test power - can be used now that we can
|
1041
|
+
approximate the null distribution
|
1042
|
+
computationally. The Anderson-Darling statistic [1]_ tends to be more
|
1043
|
+
sensitive, and critical values of the this statistic have been tabulated
|
1044
|
+
for various significance levels and sample sizes using Monte Carlo methods.
|
1045
|
+
|
1046
|
+
>>> res = stats.anderson(x, 'norm')
|
1047
|
+
>>> print(res.statistic)
|
1048
|
+
1.2139573337497467
|
1049
|
+
>>> print(res.critical_values)
|
1050
|
+
[0.549 0.625 0.75 0.875 1.041]
|
1051
|
+
>>> print(res.significance_level)
|
1052
|
+
[15. 10. 5. 2.5 1. ]
|
1053
|
+
|
1054
|
+
Here, the observed value of the statistic exceeds the critical value
|
1055
|
+
corresponding with a 1% significance level. This tells us that the p-value
|
1056
|
+
of the observed data is less than 1%, but what is it? We could interpolate
|
1057
|
+
from these (already-interpolated) values, but `goodness_of_fit` can
|
1058
|
+
estimate it directly.
|
1059
|
+
|
1060
|
+
>>> res = stats.goodness_of_fit(stats.norm, x, statistic='ad',
|
1061
|
+
... rng=rng)
|
1062
|
+
>>> res.statistic, res.pvalue
|
1063
|
+
(1.2139573337497467, 0.0034)
|
1064
|
+
|
1065
|
+
A further advantage is that use of `goodness_of_fit` is not limited to
|
1066
|
+
a particular set of distributions or conditions on which parameters
|
1067
|
+
are known versus which must be estimated from data. Instead,
|
1068
|
+
`goodness_of_fit` can estimate p-values relatively quickly for any
|
1069
|
+
distribution with a sufficiently fast and reliable ``fit`` method. For
|
1070
|
+
instance, here we perform a goodness of fit test using the Cramer-von Mises
|
1071
|
+
statistic against the Rayleigh distribution with known location and unknown
|
1072
|
+
scale.
|
1073
|
+
|
1074
|
+
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng()
|
1075
|
+
>>> x = stats.chi(df=2.2, loc=0, scale=2).rvs(size=1000, random_state=rng)
|
1076
|
+
>>> res = stats.goodness_of_fit(stats.rayleigh, x, statistic='cvm',
|
1077
|
+
... known_params={'loc': 0}, rng=rng)
|
1078
|
+
|
1079
|
+
This executes fairly quickly, but to check the reliability of the ``fit``
|
1080
|
+
method, we should inspect the fit result.
|
1081
|
+
|
1082
|
+
>>> res.fit_result # location is as specified, and scale is reasonable
|
1083
|
+
params: FitParams(loc=0.0, scale=2.1026719844231243)
|
1084
|
+
success: True
|
1085
|
+
message: 'The fit was performed successfully.'
|
1086
|
+
>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # matplotlib must be installed to plot
|
1087
|
+
>>> res.fit_result.plot()
|
1088
|
+
>>> plt.show()
|
1089
|
+
|
1090
|
+
If the distribution is not fit to the observed data as well as possible,
|
1091
|
+
the test may not control the type I error rate, that is, the chance of
|
1092
|
+
rejecting the null hypothesis even when it is true.
|
1093
|
+
|
1094
|
+
We should also look for extreme outliers in the null distribution that
|
1095
|
+
may be caused by unreliable fitting. These do not necessarily invalidate
|
1096
|
+
the result, but they tend to reduce the test's power.
|
1097
|
+
|
1098
|
+
>>> _, ax = plt.subplots()
|
1099
|
+
>>> ax.hist(np.log10(res.null_distribution))
|
1100
|
+
>>> ax.set_xlabel("log10 of CVM statistic under the null hypothesis")
|
1101
|
+
>>> ax.set_ylabel("Frequency")
|
1102
|
+
>>> ax.set_title("Histogram of the Monte Carlo null distribution")
|
1103
|
+
>>> plt.show()
|
1104
|
+
|
1105
|
+
This plot seems reassuring.
|
1106
|
+
|
1107
|
+
If ``fit`` method is working reliably, and if the distribution of the test
|
1108
|
+
statistic is not particularly sensitive to the values of the fitted
|
1109
|
+
parameters, then the p-value provided by `goodness_of_fit` is expected to
|
1110
|
+
be a good approximation.
|
1111
|
+
|
1112
|
+
>>> res.statistic, res.pvalue
|
1113
|
+
(0.2231991510248692, 0.0525)
|
1114
|
+
|
1115
|
+
"""
|
1116
|
+
args = _gof_iv(dist, data, known_params, fit_params, guessed_params,
|
1117
|
+
statistic, n_mc_samples, rng)
|
1118
|
+
(dist, data, fixed_nhd_params, fixed_rfd_params, guessed_nhd_params,
|
1119
|
+
guessed_rfd_params, statistic, n_mc_samples_int, rng) = args
|
1120
|
+
|
1121
|
+
# Fit null hypothesis distribution to data
|
1122
|
+
nhd_fit_fun = _get_fit_fun(dist, data, guessed_nhd_params,
|
1123
|
+
fixed_nhd_params)
|
1124
|
+
nhd_vals = nhd_fit_fun(data)
|
1125
|
+
nhd_dist = dist(*nhd_vals)
|
1126
|
+
|
1127
|
+
def rvs(size):
|
1128
|
+
return nhd_dist.rvs(size=size, random_state=rng)
|
1129
|
+
|
1130
|
+
# Define statistic
|
1131
|
+
fit_fun = _get_fit_fun(dist, data, guessed_rfd_params, fixed_rfd_params)
|
1132
|
+
if callable(statistic):
|
1133
|
+
compare_fun = statistic
|
1134
|
+
else:
|
1135
|
+
compare_fun = _compare_dict[statistic]
|
1136
|
+
alternative = getattr(compare_fun, 'alternative', 'greater')
|
1137
|
+
|
1138
|
+
def statistic_fun(data, axis):
|
1139
|
+
# Make things simple by always working along the last axis.
|
1140
|
+
data = np.moveaxis(data, axis, -1)
|
1141
|
+
rfd_vals = fit_fun(data)
|
1142
|
+
rfd_dist = dist(*rfd_vals)
|
1143
|
+
return compare_fun(rfd_dist, data, axis=-1)
|
1144
|
+
|
1145
|
+
res = stats.monte_carlo_test(data, rvs, statistic_fun, vectorized=True,
|
1146
|
+
n_resamples=n_mc_samples, axis=-1,
|
1147
|
+
alternative=alternative)
|
1148
|
+
opt_res = optimize.OptimizeResult()
|
1149
|
+
opt_res.success = True
|
1150
|
+
opt_res.message = "The fit was performed successfully."
|
1151
|
+
opt_res.x = nhd_vals
|
1152
|
+
# Only continuous distributions for now, hence discrete=False
|
1153
|
+
# There's no fundamental limitation; it's just that we're not using
|
1154
|
+
# stats.fit, discrete distributions don't have `fit` method, and
|
1155
|
+
# we haven't written any vectorized fit functions for a discrete
|
1156
|
+
# distribution yet.
|
1157
|
+
return GoodnessOfFitResult(FitResult(dist, data, False, opt_res),
|
1158
|
+
res.statistic, res.pvalue,
|
1159
|
+
res.null_distribution)
|
1160
|
+
|
1161
|
+
|
1162
|
+
def _get_fit_fun(dist, data, guessed_params, fixed_params):
|
1163
|
+
|
1164
|
+
shape_names = [] if dist.shapes is None else dist.shapes.split(", ")
|
1165
|
+
param_names = shape_names + ['loc', 'scale']
|
1166
|
+
fparam_names = ['f'+name for name in param_names]
|
1167
|
+
all_fixed = not set(fparam_names).difference(fixed_params)
|
1168
|
+
guessed_shapes = [guessed_params.pop(x, None)
|
1169
|
+
for x in shape_names if x in guessed_params]
|
1170
|
+
|
1171
|
+
if all_fixed:
|
1172
|
+
def fit_fun(data):
|
1173
|
+
return [fixed_params[name] for name in fparam_names]
|
1174
|
+
# Define statistic, including fitting distribution to data
|
1175
|
+
elif dist in _fit_funs:
|
1176
|
+
def fit_fun(data):
|
1177
|
+
params = _fit_funs[dist](data, **fixed_params)
|
1178
|
+
params = np.asarray(np.broadcast_arrays(*params))
|
1179
|
+
if params.ndim > 1:
|
1180
|
+
params = params[..., np.newaxis]
|
1181
|
+
return params
|
1182
|
+
else:
|
1183
|
+
def fit_fun_1d(data):
|
1184
|
+
return dist.fit(data, *guessed_shapes, **guessed_params,
|
1185
|
+
**fixed_params)
|
1186
|
+
|
1187
|
+
def fit_fun(data):
|
1188
|
+
params = np.apply_along_axis(fit_fun_1d, axis=-1, arr=data)
|
1189
|
+
if params.ndim > 1:
|
1190
|
+
params = params.T[..., np.newaxis]
|
1191
|
+
return params
|
1192
|
+
|
1193
|
+
return fit_fun
|
1194
|
+
|
1195
|
+
|
1196
|
+
# Vectorized fitting functions. These are to accept ND `data` in which each
|
1197
|
+
# row (slice along last axis) is a sample to fit and scalar fixed parameters.
|
1198
|
+
# They return a tuple of shape parameter arrays, each of shape data.shape[:-1].
|
1199
|
+
def _fit_norm(data, floc=None, fscale=None):
|
1200
|
+
loc = floc
|
1201
|
+
scale = fscale
|
1202
|
+
if loc is None and scale is None:
|
1203
|
+
loc = np.mean(data, axis=-1)
|
1204
|
+
scale = np.std(data, ddof=1, axis=-1)
|
1205
|
+
elif loc is None:
|
1206
|
+
loc = np.mean(data, axis=-1)
|
1207
|
+
elif scale is None:
|
1208
|
+
scale = np.sqrt(((data - loc)**2).mean(axis=-1))
|
1209
|
+
return loc, scale
|
1210
|
+
|
1211
|
+
|
1212
|
+
_fit_funs = {stats.norm: _fit_norm} # type: ignore[attr-defined]
|
1213
|
+
|
1214
|
+
|
1215
|
+
# Vectorized goodness of fit statistic functions. These accept a frozen
|
1216
|
+
# distribution object and `data` in which each row (slice along last axis) is
|
1217
|
+
# a sample.
|
1218
|
+
|
1219
|
+
|
1220
|
+
def _anderson_darling(dist, data, axis):
|
1221
|
+
x = np.sort(data, axis=-1)
|
1222
|
+
n = data.shape[-1]
|
1223
|
+
i = np.arange(1, n+1)
|
1224
|
+
Si = (2*i - 1)/n * (dist.logcdf(x) + dist.logsf(x[..., ::-1]))
|
1225
|
+
S = np.sum(Si, axis=-1)
|
1226
|
+
return -n - S
|
1227
|
+
|
1228
|
+
|
1229
|
+
def _compute_dplus(cdfvals): # adapted from _stats_py before gh-17062
|
1230
|
+
n = cdfvals.shape[-1]
|
1231
|
+
return (np.arange(1.0, n + 1) / n - cdfvals).max(axis=-1)
|
1232
|
+
|
1233
|
+
|
1234
|
+
def _compute_dminus(cdfvals):
|
1235
|
+
n = cdfvals.shape[-1]
|
1236
|
+
return (cdfvals - np.arange(0.0, n)/n).max(axis=-1)
|
1237
|
+
|
1238
|
+
|
1239
|
+
def _kolmogorov_smirnov(dist, data, axis=-1):
|
1240
|
+
x = np.sort(data, axis=axis)
|
1241
|
+
cdfvals = dist.cdf(x)
|
1242
|
+
cdfvals = np.moveaxis(cdfvals, axis, -1)
|
1243
|
+
Dplus = _compute_dplus(cdfvals) # always works along last axis
|
1244
|
+
Dminus = _compute_dminus(cdfvals)
|
1245
|
+
return np.maximum(Dplus, Dminus)
|
1246
|
+
|
1247
|
+
|
1248
|
+
def _corr(X, M):
|
1249
|
+
# Correlation coefficient r, simplified and vectorized as we need it.
|
1250
|
+
# See [7] Equation (2). Lemma 1/2 are only for distributions symmetric
|
1251
|
+
# about 0.
|
1252
|
+
Xm = X.mean(axis=-1, keepdims=True)
|
1253
|
+
Mm = M.mean(axis=-1, keepdims=True)
|
1254
|
+
num = np.sum((X - Xm) * (M - Mm), axis=-1)
|
1255
|
+
den = np.sqrt(np.sum((X - Xm)**2, axis=-1) * np.sum((M - Mm)**2, axis=-1))
|
1256
|
+
return num/den
|
1257
|
+
|
1258
|
+
|
1259
|
+
def _filliben(dist, data, axis):
|
1260
|
+
# [7] Section 8 # 1
|
1261
|
+
X = np.sort(data, axis=-1)
|
1262
|
+
|
1263
|
+
# [7] Section 8 # 2
|
1264
|
+
n = data.shape[-1]
|
1265
|
+
k = np.arange(1, n+1)
|
1266
|
+
# Filliben used an approximation for the uniform distribution order
|
1267
|
+
# statistic medians.
|
1268
|
+
# m = (k - .3175)/(n + 0.365)
|
1269
|
+
# m[-1] = 0.5**(1/n)
|
1270
|
+
# m[0] = 1 - m[-1]
|
1271
|
+
# We can just as easily use the (theoretically) exact values. See e.g.
|
1272
|
+
# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_statistic
|
1273
|
+
# "Order statistics sampled from a uniform distribution"
|
1274
|
+
m = stats.beta(k, n + 1 - k).median()
|
1275
|
+
|
1276
|
+
# [7] Section 8 # 3
|
1277
|
+
M = dist.ppf(m)
|
1278
|
+
|
1279
|
+
# [7] Section 8 # 4
|
1280
|
+
return _corr(X, M)
|
1281
|
+
_filliben.alternative = 'less' # type: ignore[attr-defined]
|
1282
|
+
|
1283
|
+
|
1284
|
+
def _cramer_von_mises(dist, data, axis):
|
1285
|
+
x = np.sort(data, axis=-1)
|
1286
|
+
n = data.shape[-1]
|
1287
|
+
cdfvals = dist.cdf(x)
|
1288
|
+
u = (2*np.arange(1, n+1) - 1)/(2*n)
|
1289
|
+
w = 1 / (12*n) + np.sum((u - cdfvals)**2, axis=-1)
|
1290
|
+
return w
|
1291
|
+
|
1292
|
+
|
1293
|
+
_compare_dict = {"ad": _anderson_darling, "ks": _kolmogorov_smirnov,
|
1294
|
+
"cvm": _cramer_von_mises, "filliben": _filliben}
|
1295
|
+
|
1296
|
+
|
1297
|
+
def _gof_iv(dist, data, known_params, fit_params, guessed_params, statistic,
|
1298
|
+
n_mc_samples, rng):
|
1299
|
+
|
1300
|
+
if not isinstance(dist, stats.rv_continuous):
|
1301
|
+
message = ("`dist` must be a (non-frozen) instance of "
|
1302
|
+
"`stats.rv_continuous`.")
|
1303
|
+
raise TypeError(message)
|
1304
|
+
|
1305
|
+
data = np.asarray(data, dtype=float)
|
1306
|
+
if not data.ndim == 1:
|
1307
|
+
message = "`data` must be a one-dimensional array of numbers."
|
1308
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
1309
|
+
|
1310
|
+
# Leave validation of these key/value pairs to the `fit` method,
|
1311
|
+
# but collect these into dictionaries that will be used
|
1312
|
+
known_params = known_params or dict()
|
1313
|
+
fit_params = fit_params or dict()
|
1314
|
+
guessed_params = guessed_params or dict()
|
1315
|
+
|
1316
|
+
known_params_f = {("f"+key): val for key, val in known_params.items()}
|
1317
|
+
fit_params_f = {("f"+key): val for key, val in fit_params.items()}
|
1318
|
+
|
1319
|
+
# These are the values of parameters of the null distribution family
|
1320
|
+
# with which resamples are drawn
|
1321
|
+
fixed_nhd_params = known_params_f.copy()
|
1322
|
+
fixed_nhd_params.update(fit_params_f)
|
1323
|
+
|
1324
|
+
# These are fixed when fitting the distribution family to resamples
|
1325
|
+
fixed_rfd_params = known_params_f.copy()
|
1326
|
+
|
1327
|
+
# These are used as guesses when fitting the distribution family to
|
1328
|
+
# the original data
|
1329
|
+
guessed_nhd_params = guessed_params.copy()
|
1330
|
+
|
1331
|
+
# These are used as guesses when fitting the distribution family to
|
1332
|
+
# resamples
|
1333
|
+
guessed_rfd_params = fit_params.copy()
|
1334
|
+
guessed_rfd_params.update(guessed_params)
|
1335
|
+
|
1336
|
+
if not callable(statistic):
|
1337
|
+
statistic = statistic.lower()
|
1338
|
+
statistics = {'ad', 'ks', 'cvm', 'filliben'}
|
1339
|
+
if statistic not in statistics:
|
1340
|
+
message = f"`statistic` must be one of {statistics}."
|
1341
|
+
raise ValueError(message)
|
1342
|
+
|
1343
|
+
n_mc_samples_int = int(n_mc_samples)
|
1344
|
+
if n_mc_samples_int != n_mc_samples:
|
1345
|
+
message = "`n_mc_samples` must be an integer."
|
1346
|
+
raise TypeError(message)
|
1347
|
+
|
1348
|
+
rng = check_random_state(rng)
|
1349
|
+
|
1350
|
+
return (dist, data, fixed_nhd_params, fixed_rfd_params, guessed_nhd_params,
|
1351
|
+
guessed_rfd_params, statistic, n_mc_samples_int, rng)
|