@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology.md

@@ -11,185 +11,11 @@
 
 ***
 
-## 2) Diagnostic Profile (No Single Category)
+This guide is split into 2 files so each one arrives complete in a single `read`.
+Open the part you need with `read`, resolved against this skill's base directory:
 
-Report the following traits independently.  
-For each trait, give:
-- **State**
-- **Conviction**: Low / Medium / High
-- **Evidence**: 1 short sentence
+- `methodology-1.md` — ?; ?
+- `methodology-2.md` — ?; ?; ?
 
-Use this compact bullet format:
-
-- Cyclicality: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
-- Turnaround status: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
-- Growth profile: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
-- Business maturity: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
-- Asset angle: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
-- Dominant analytical lenses: [list up to 2 traits that should dominate the rest of the analysis]
-
-### 2.1 Cyclicality
-
-States:
-- **High**
-- **Moderate**
-- **Low**
-
-Rules:
-- **High** if:
-  - at least **2 full EPS cycles** in the last 10 years (**peak → trough → peak**),
-  - peaks had positive EPS,
-  - swings were **≥30%**
-- **Moderate** if:
-  - 1 clear cycle, or
-  - repeated earnings swings of roughly **15–30%**, or
-  - the industry is clearly cyclical but the financial history is too short for a High rating
-- **Low** otherwise
-
-### 2.2 Turnaround Status
-
-States:
-- **None**
-- **Active**
-- **Recovering**
-
-Rules:
-- **Active** if any of the following are true:
-  - EPS declined **2+ consecutive years**
-  - revenue contracted **>5%** and margins compressed
-  - EPS is **≥30% below prior peak**
-  - and the deterioration is **not mainly normal cyclicality**
-- **Recovering** if the business recently met Active criteria but revenue, margins, or EPS have now stabilized or started improving
-- **None** otherwise
-
-### 2.3 Growth Profile
-
-States:
-- **Fast**
-- **Stalwart-like**
-- **Slow**
-- **Moderate/Other**
-- **Declining**
-
-Rules:
-- **Fast** if:
-  - **2Y EPS CAGR ≥20%**
-  - revenue growth confirms
-  - growth is **not mainly a cyclical rebound**
-  - growth is **not merely recovery from a distressed base**
-- **Stalwart-like** if:
-  - **2Y EPS CAGR = 8–12%**
-  - margins are stable
-  - no 2-year EPS decline
-  - no revenue contraction >5%
-  - and cyclicality is **not High**
-- **Slow** if:
-  - **2Y EPS CAGR = 2–5%**
-  - and the business appears **large/mature**
-  - and there is no obvious distress
-- **Moderate/Other** if results fall between bands or are mixed (treat with caution — weaker conviction category)
-- **Declining** if EPS CAGR is below 2% or negative
-
-**Guardrail:** If EPS growth is mostly from buybacks, cost cutting, or recovery off a depressed base, say growth quality is weaker.
-
-### 2.4 Business Maturity
-
-States:
-- **Early**
-- **Scaling**
-- **Mature**
-
-Rules:
-- **Early** — still proving the model; concentrated geography/product; evidence base limited
-- **Scaling** — model proven and expanding into more markets/products; meaningful whitespace remains
-- **Mature** — broad penetration, lower whitespace, and capital allocation/dividends/buybacks matter more
-
-### 2.5 Asset Angle
-
-States:
-- **None**
-- **Possible**
-- **Strong**
-
-Rules:
-- **Strong** if verifiable after-tax asset value exceeds market cap by **≥30%**
-- **Possible** if hidden assets appear meaningful but valuation or catalyst is incomplete
-- **None** otherwise
-
-### 2.6 Dominant Analytical Lenses
-
-Choose **up to 2** traits that should dominate the rest of the analysis.  
-Examples:
-- High cyclicality
-- Active turnaround
-- Recovering turnaround
-- Fast growth
-- Strong asset angle
-- Mature slow-growth economics
-
-## 3) Fatal Flaw Check
-
-Look for **dealbreakers only**:
-
-1. **EPS trend**: Is the 5-year direction acceptable for the category?
-    - Reject if: fast growth company with flat EPS, slow-growth company trading at high P/E, cyclical company at peak earnings without margin of safety
-2. **Debt danger**: Debt-to-Equity ratio
-    - **Fast growth company**: D/E > 33% — red flag (debt constrains growth flexibility)
-    - **Turnaround company / Cyclical business**: D/E > 50% — red flag (debt can kill recovery or amplify cycle damage)
-    - **All others**: D/E > 80% — red flag
-
-    Use **interest‑bearing debt only**: short‑term borrowings + long‑term debt + current portion of long‑term debt. Do NOT use total liabilities. It will distort brokers, banks, insurers,
-    and high working‑capital businesses.
-
-3. **Valuation**: Current P/E ÷ expected growth rate (PEG)
-    - Reject if: PEG >2.5, or P/E >40 without exceptional growth story
-    - Perfect for fast growth company is P/E at or near the growth rate (PEG ~1.0)
-4. **Recent trend break**: Any significant deterioration in last 2 quarters that contradicts the 5-year story?
-5. **Cash flow red flag**: Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow − Capex) persistently lags net income, OR net income rises while OCF/FCF weakens
-   - This suggests potential earnings quality issues or accounting games
-6. **Dividend**: IF slow growth company: Reject if no dividend or dividend has been cut in the last 5 years.
-7. **Growth risk**: Growth >25% annually: proceed with extra caution (hot industry risk, unsustainable pace).
-
-**If any metric is disqualifying, explain and mark SKIP.**
-
-***
-
-## 4) Category specific check
-
-- **Skip** this section for Stalwart-like companies unless an obvious concern exists.
-- **Required** for Cyclicals, Turnarounds, and Asset Plays:
-  - Cyclical: Are we at cycle peak with full valuation?
-  - Turnaround: 
-        1. Does the balance sheet support 12+ months without profit?
-        2. A turnaround trading at a depressed Low P/E (or negative earnings) is the classic setup. A company with turnaround-level problems but a sky-high P/E is a **valuation mismatch** the market is already pricing in a successful company before evidence exists. Flag this as a major risk: you are paying fast-grower prices for turnaround fundamentals.
-  - Asset Play: Is the hidden asset confirmed, quantified, and not already priced in the share value?
-  - Slow growth companies: 
-        1. Have little interest in these unless deeply undervalued.
-        2. Pays generous, consistent dividends (the main reason to own it)
-
-***
-
-## 5) Bonus Points
-Note if ANY of these apply (each adds conviction):
-- Recent **corporate insider** buying (officers, directors, or >10% 
-  shareholders — not institutional or political disclosures) in last 6 months
-- Active share buyback program reducing share count
-- Low institutional ownership (<30%)
-- Company buying back stock near 52-week lows
-- Stock price near or below net cash per share (cash minus total debt, divided by shares outstanding).
-
-***
-
-## 6) Decision
-
-Choose ONE:
-
-- **SKIP** — Not investable now. State the single most important dealbreaker (1 sentence).
-
-- **WATCHLIST** — Potentially attractive but currently not investable due to one missing element.
-    - State what is missing (1 sentence)
-    - Define a clear trigger for revisit (e.g., next earnings, valuation level, margin stabilization)
-
-- **DEEP RESEARCH** — Passes all filters and warrants full analysis.
-    - State the strongest reason (1 sentence)
-    - State category fit (e.g., Fast Growth, Turnaround, Cyclical, Asset Play)
+This index is not the guide: name which parts you opened, and never report a step, a
+threshold, or a template you have not read in this session.

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-1.md

@@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
+# Quick Web Research Workflow
+
+Quick Research is a triage workflow. It answers:
+
+* SKIP
+* WATCHLIST
+* DEEP RESEARCH
+
+The goal is not full due diligence. Gather only enough evidence for a
+responsible screening decision.
+
+This file is self-contained. Do not read `references/filing-rules.md` for
+normal Quick Research. Quick uses reputable financial-data aggregator pages,
+not regulator/XBRL extraction. Read filing rules only if the company identity
+cannot be resolved without regulator context, or if an aggregator clearly mixes
+ADR, secondary-listing, or specialized-financial-company data in a way that
+blocks the screen.
+
+## Minimum Source Rules
+
+Use reputable aggregator sources for Quick Research. Preferred source types:
+
+1. financial-data aggregators with multi-year statements and key ratios, such
+   as Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, GuruFocus, or
+   similar public financial-data pages
+2. market-data aggregators with quote, market capitalization, P/E, dividend,
+   and 52-week range data, such as CompaniesMarketCap, Nasdaq, Yahoo Finance,
+   MarketWatch, StockAnalysis, GuruFocus, or similar pages
+3. aggregator or quote/profile pages that include a short business description,
+   sector, industry, exchange, and country
+
+Do not use annual report PDFs, full 10-K / 10-Q / 20-F extraction, SEC filing
+detail pages, company quarterly reports, or long investor-relations documents
+for Quick Research. Those belong to Deep Research.
+
+Never use anonymous blogs, forums, social media posts, or unsourced pages for
+financial numbers. Do not use news articles as the primary source for standard
+financial metrics when an aggregator table is available.
+
+Every retrieval request must fill a Source Ledger slot, resolve a
+decision-critical conflict, or support a triggered check. Do not ask for another
+source out of curiosity.
+
+Do not ask source-by-source per fiscal year or per metric when one
+aggregator table can answer the question. Extract revenue, earnings per share
+(EPS), margins, cash, debt, shares, dividends, buybacks, and cash-flow lines
+from aggregator pages.
+
+Before asking for a fourth source after the third Quick retrieval, ask internally:
+
+* What decision-critical fact is missing?
+* Can another section of an existing aggregator source answer it?
+* Which reputable aggregator is most likely to contain the missing metric?
+
+Ask for more only if another aggregator is needed to complete the existing Quick
+methodology responsibly.
+
+If aggregator sources conflict, prefer the source that is more recent, more
+complete, and more directly tied to the metric. Note material conflicts in the
+brief. Do not resolve normal Quick conflicts by opening full filings; if the
+conflict is decision-critical, ask for another reputable aggregator or move the
+decision to WATCHLIST / DEEP RESEARCH with the conflict stated.
+
+Every important number in the research brief must include metric, period/date,
+value, currency/units, source ID(s), and label: `Reported`, `Calculated`, or
+`Inference`.
+
+Final report citations must use Source Ledger URLs and this format:
+
+`source: [Source name](https://...)`
+
+## Budget
+
+Practical default:
+
+* **1-3 aggregator sources**
+* **2-3 retrieval requests**
+* **2-3 page fetches**
+
+Expand only when another reputable aggregator is needed for missing required
+Quick evidence, ambiguous identity, live valuation, a possible fatal flaw, a
+triggered special check, or a decision-critical conflict.
+
+## Default Source Set
+
+Use the smallest aggregator source set that completes the screen:
+
+1. One aggregator with financial statements or financial history.
+2. One aggregator with live valuation and market data.
+3. One aggregator profile/summary source only if the first two do not cover
+   identity, business description, sector, industry, or exchange.
+
+Ownership, insider, competitor, or industry aggregator sources are allowed only
+when the existing Quick methodology needs that evidence and it could affect
+conviction.
+
+## Query Pack
+
+Each line below is one thing to ask the host's retrieval channel for, not a page
+to go and open from here. Work through them in order and stop as soon as the
+Source Ledger covers required Quick evidence:
+
+* `"{ticker}" Yahoo Finance financials statistics profile`
+* `"{ticker}" StockAnalysis financials balance sheet cash flow ratios`
+* `"{ticker}" MarketWatch financials income balance sheet cash flow`
+* `"{ticker}" Macrotrends revenue EPS cash flow debt`
+* `"{ticker}" CompaniesMarketCap market cap PE ratio dividend 52 week range`
+* `"{ticker}" Nasdaq quote financials institutional insider`
+
+If the company has a non-US listing, add exchange, country, or reporting
+currency. If the ticker is ambiguous, ask for ticker plus exchange name and use
+aggregator profile pages to resolve the traded entity.
+
+Do not run the full pack automatically.

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-2.md

@@ -0,0 +1,180 @@
+# Quick Web Research Workflow · Part 2 of 3
+
+Part 2/3 of `references/quick/web-research.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/quick/web-research-1.md` for the whole guide.
+
+## Quick Evidence Needed
+
+A Quick decision normally needs:
+
+* identity verified from an aggregator profile, exchange-style quote page, or
+  reputable market-data page
+* simple business model
+* one concrete growth driver
+* revenue and earnings per share (EPS) direction
+* cash-flow quality signal
+* balance-sheet risk signal
+* live valuation snapshot
+* recent trend evidence from aggregator financials, trailing twelve-month
+  metrics, recent quarterly data, or an aggregator news/earnings summary
+* triggered special evidence only if methodology requires it
+
+Do not mark required Quick evidence as `unknown` merely to save tokens. If one
+aggregator lacks a required Quick metric, ask for another reputable aggregator.
+
+If a clear fatal flaw is verified, stop gathering optional data and write the
+SKIP decision.
+
+Fatal flaw examples:
+
+* dangerous leverage
+* heavy dilution
+* persistently negative free cash flow without credible investment explanation
+* severe revenue / EPS deterioration with no credible stabilization evidence
+* valuation obviously excessive relative to weak growth
+
+## Core Extraction
+
+Gather from the Source Ledger first. Ask for a new source only when the current
+ledger cannot answer a required screening item.
+
+### Identity
+
+Gather:
+
+* company name
+* ticker / exchange
+* country / region
+* sector / industry
+* company website from an aggregator profile, if available
+* short business description
+
+### Business Model
+
+Gather:
+
+* what the company sells
+* main customers
+* main products / services
+* main geographies
+* main segment or product mix if easily available
+* one specific 3-5 year growth driver
+
+Avoid vague drivers such as “innovation,” “AI,” “digital transformation,”
+“brand strength,” or “large market opportunity” unless tied to revenue, margins,
+or EPS.
+
+### Revenue, EPS, And Margins
+
+Gather:
+
+* revenue trend, preferably 5 years
+* diluted EPS trend, preferably 5 years
+* 2-year revenue and EPS growth
+* major drops, spikes, or recoveries
+* gross, operating, or net margin direction if available
+
+Do not build a full margin table unless immediately available.
+
+### Cash Flow Quality
+
+Gather:
+
+* operating cash flow, preferably 3-5 years
+* capital expenditures, preferably 3-5 years
+* free cash flow, preferably 3-5 years
+* whether free cash flow broadly confirms net income
+* whether net income rises while operating cash flow or free cash flow weakens
+
+Free cash flow = operating cash flow - capital expenditures.
+
+### Balance Sheet Safety
+
+Gather:
+
+* cash and cash equivalents
+* short-term borrowings
+* current portion of long-term debt
+* long-term debt
+* shareholders' equity
+* interest expense if available
+
+Use interest-bearing debt only:
+
+`Total interest-bearing debt = short-term borrowings + current portion of long-term debt + long-term debt`
+
+Debt-to-equity means:
+
+`interest-bearing debt / shareholders' equity`
+
+### Valuation Snapshot
+
+Use one market-data source by default.
+
+Gather:
+
+* current share price
+* market capitalization
+* trailing P/E
+* forward P/E if available
+* PEG if available
+* EV/EBITDA if available
+* 52-week range
+
+If forward P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, or another methodology-relevant valuation
+metric is missing from the current source, use another reputable aggregator.
+Do not omit a valuation metric merely to save tokens.
+
+### Recent Trend Check
+
+Prefer aggregator trailing twelve-month data, recent quarterly financials, or
+earnings/news summaries as a combined source for:
+
+* revenue growth or decline
+* EPS / profit trend
+* margin pressure or recovery
+* guidance cut, warning, or major deterioration
+
+Do not ask for a separate source per recent-trend metric if one aggregator
+source covers them.
+
+## Triggered Extra Evidence
+
+Do not ask for every possible detail. Ask for extra only when methodology
+needs it.
+
+### Cyclicality
+
+Triggered by large EPS/margin swings or clearly cyclical industry.
+
+Gather up to 10-year EPS history if easily available. If not, use 5-year data
+and lower conviction.
+
+### Turnaround
+
+Triggered by 2+ years of EPS decline, revenue contraction plus margin
+compression, or EPS 30%+ below prior peak.
+
+Gather stabilization evidence, liquidity, debt risk, margin recovery evidence,
+and whether valuation already prices in recovery.
+
+### Fast Growth
+
+Triggered by 2-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%+.
+
+Check whether revenue confirms EPS growth, whether growth came from buybacks or
+cost cuts, and whether valuation is reasonable.
+
+### Slow Growth / Mature
+
+Triggered by low EPS growth and mature business profile.
+
+Gather dividend per share, dividend consistency, dividend cuts, buybacks, and
+whether valuation is low enough to justify interest.
+
+### Asset Angle
+
+Triggered by net-cash, asset-heavy, real-estate, subsidiary, equity-stake, or
+large book-value-discount situations.
+
+Gather asset evidence only if it could materially affect downside or the
+decision.

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-3.md

@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+# Quick Web Research Workflow · Part 3 of 3
+
+Part 3/3 of `references/quick/web-research.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/quick/web-research-1.md` for the whole guide.
+
+## Bonus Evidence
+
+Only collect after the core screen is not a clear SKIP. Use aggregator sources
+for bonus evidence.
+
+Bonus examples:
+
+* recent corporate insider buying in the last 6 months
+* active buybacks reducing share count
+* institutional ownership below 30%
+* buybacks near 52-week lows
+* stock price near or below net cash per share
+
+## Quick Research Brief
+
+Compile a compact internal brief before writing:
+
+```md
+
+## Quick Research Brief
+
+### Identity
+- Company:
+- Ticker / exchange:
+- Country / reporting currency:
+- Sector / industry:
+- Aggregator identity/profile URL:
+
+### Source Ledger
+- [S1] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+- [S2] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+- [S3] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+- [S4 optional] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+
+### Business Model
+- What it sells:
+- Main customers/geographies:
+- Specific 3-5 year growth driver:
+- Evidence label:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Screening Financials
+- Revenue trend:
+- EPS trend:
+- Margin trend:
+- Operating cash flow / free cash flow signal:
+- Balance sheet signal:
+
+### Live Valuation
+- Data gathered:
+- Share price:
+- Market cap:
+- Trailing P/E:
+- Forward P/E:
+- PEG or growth proxy:
+- EV/EBITDA:
+- 52-week range:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Recent Trend Check
+- Latest period:
+- Revenue/profit/margin trend:
+- Guidance cut, warning, or deterioration:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Diagnostic Triggers
+- Cyclicality:
+- Turnaround:
+- Fast growth:
+- Slow-growth / mature:
+- Asset angle:
+
+### Fatal Flaw Candidates
+- [candidate] — [evidence]
+
+### Bonus Points
+- [bonus item or none found]
+
+### Missing Decision-Critical Data
+- [item] — [sources checked]
+
+### Decision
+- SKIP / WATCHLIST / DEEP RESEARCH:
+- Main reason:
+- Revisit trigger, if WATCHLIST:
+```
+
+The final Quick report must be based on this brief, not raw retrieval results.