@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/10-analysis-components.md

@@ -0,0 +1,122 @@
+# Analysis Components
+
+Part 1 of 6 for `stock-eval` — Analysis Components; Deep Financial Statement Analysis
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Analysis Components
+
+### 1. Company Overview
+
+- Business model and competitive advantages (moat assessment)
+- Market position, addressable market size, and industry trends
+- Revenue mix by segment and geographic exposure
+- Key products, services, and customer concentration
+- Competitive dynamics and threat of disruption
+
+### 2. Financial Health
+
+- Revenue and earnings growth trends (3-year and 5-year CAGR)
+- Profit margins: gross margin, operating margin, net margin
+- Margin trends: expanding, stable, or compressing
+- Balance sheet strength: cash, total debt, net debt, book value
+- Liquidity: current ratio, quick ratio, cash conversion cycle
+- Cash flow analysis: operating cash flow, free cash flow, FCF yield
+- Capital expenditure requirements (maintenance vs. growth capex)
+- Working capital management efficiency
+
+### 3. Valuation Metrics
+
+| Metric          | Current | 1-Year Ago | 5-Year Avg | Sector Avg |
+|-----------------|---------|------------|------------|------------|
+| P/E (TTM)       |         |            |            |            |
+| P/E (Forward)   |         |            |            |            |
+| PEG Ratio       |         |            |            |            |
+| Price/Book      |         |            |            |            |
+| Price/Sales     |         |            |            |            |
+| EV/EBITDA       |         |            |            |            |
+| EV/FCF          |         |            |            |            |
+| Dividend Yield  |         |            |            |            |
+| Payout Ratio    |         |            |            |            |
+
+### 4. Key Ratios
+
+| Ratio                  | Current | Industry Avg | Assessment |
+|------------------------|---------|--------------|------------|
+| Return on Equity (ROE) |         |              |            |
+| Return on Assets (ROA) |         |              |            |
+| Return on Inv. Capital |         |              |            |
+| Gross Margin           |         |              |            |
+| Operating Margin       |         |              |            |
+| Net Margin             |         |              |            |
+| Current Ratio          |         |              |            |
+| Quick Ratio            |         |              |            |
+| Debt-to-Equity         |         |              |            |
+| Interest Coverage      |         |              |            |
+| Asset Turnover         |         |              |            |
+
+### 5. Peer Comparison
+
+- Direct peer comparison within industry on key valuation multiples
+- Historical valuation trends vs. own 5-year history
+- Sector performance context and relative positioning
+- Market share trends vs. competitors
+
+---
+
+## Deep Financial Statement Analysis
+
+This section provides line-item rigor absorbed from dedicated fundamental analysis workflows. Use when a deeper statement-level breakdown is required.
+
+### Income Statement Line-Item Framework
+
+**Revenue Analysis**
+- Break revenue into organic growth vs. acquisition-driven growth vs. FX tailwind/headwind
+- Identify top revenue segments by size and growth rate; flag any segment growing faster or slower than the consolidated total
+- Assess revenue quality: recurring subscription/contract revenue vs. transactional/one-time revenue
+- Operating leverage test: does revenue growth outpace operating expense growth? Calculate incremental operating margin = ΔOperating Income / ΔRevenue
+
+**Cost Structure Decomposition**
+- COGS breakdown: raw materials, labor, overhead — track each as % of revenue over 5 years
+- SG&A as % of revenue: stable or creeping? Rising SG&A without revenue acceleration signals inefficiency
+- R&D intensity: absolute spend and % of revenue — context-dependent (biotech vs. consumer goods)
+- Non-recurring items to strip from normalized earnings: restructuring charges, asset write-downs, gain/loss on asset sales, one-time tax benefits, litigation settlements
+
+**Operating Leverage Analysis**
+- Fixed vs. variable cost split (estimate from historical margin behavior at different revenue levels)
+- Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL) = % Change in Operating Income / % Change in Revenue
+- High DOL (>3x) amplifies both upside and downside from revenue swings
+
+| Year | Revenue ($M) | Revenue Growth % | EBIT ($M) | EBIT Growth % | DOL |
+|------|-------------|-----------------|-----------|--------------|-----|
+| Y-4  |             |                 |           |              |     |
+| Y-3  |             |                 |           |              |     |
+| Y-2  |             |                 |           |              |     |
+| Y-1  |             |                 |           |              |     |
+| TTM  |             |                 |           |              |     |
+
+### Working Capital Cycle Analysis
+
+Working capital efficiency directly affects how much cash a business consumes or generates as it grows.
+
+**Key Working Capital Metrics**
+
+| Metric | Formula | Current | Y-1 | Y-2 | Trend |
+|--------|---------|---------|-----|-----|-------|
+| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | Accounts Receivable / (Revenue / 365) | | | | |
+| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) | Inventory / (COGS / 365) | | | | |
+| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) | Accounts Payable / (COGS / 365) | | | | |
+| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) | DSO + DIO − DPO | | | | |
+| Net Working Capital ($M) | Current Assets − Current Liabilities | | | | |
+| NWC as % of Revenue | NWC / Revenue | | | | |
+
+**Cash Conversion Cycle Interpretation**
+- **CCC declining**: Company is collecting faster, holding less inventory, and/or extending payables — favorable working capital dynamics, cash generation improves as revenue grows
+- **CCC rising**: Working capital is consuming more cash as the business scales — a hidden drag on FCF growth
+- **Negative CCC** (e.g., large retailers, subscription businesses): Customers pay before the company pays suppliers — a structural cash flow advantage
+
+**Working Capital as a Growth Funding Check**
+- Incremental NWC per $1 of new revenue = ΔNWC / ΔRevenue
+- If this ratio exceeds ~15%, rapid revenue growth can strain liquidity even in a profitable business
+
+
+This section is not finished here: `Deep Financial Statement Analysis` continues in `references/11-dupont-decomposition.md`.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/11-dupont-decomposition.md

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+# Deep Financial Statement Analysis(continued)
+
+Part 2 of 6 for `stock-eval` — Deep Financial Statement Analysis
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+### DuPont Decomposition
+
+DuPont analysis decomposes ROE into its constituent drivers to identify whether profitability, efficiency, or leverage is the primary return engine — and whether returns are sustainable.
+
+**3-Factor DuPont**
+
+ROE = Net Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
+
+| Component | Formula | Current | Y-1 | Y-2 |
+|-----------|---------|---------|-----|-----|
+| Net Profit Margin | Net Income / Revenue | | | |
+| Asset Turnover | Revenue / Average Total Assets | | | |
+| Equity Multiplier | Average Total Assets / Average Shareholders' Equity | | | |
+| **ROE** | Margin × Turnover × Multiplier | | | |
+
+**5-Factor DuPont (Extended)**
+
+ROE = Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
+
+| Component | Formula | Current | Y-1 | Y-2 |
+|-----------|---------|---------|-----|-----|
+| Tax Burden | Net Income / Pre-Tax Income | | | |
+| Interest Burden | Pre-Tax Income / EBIT | | | |
+| EBIT Margin | EBIT / Revenue | | | |
+| Asset Turnover | Revenue / Average Total Assets | | | |
+| Equity Multiplier | Average Total Assets / Average Equity | | | |
+| **ROE** | Product of all five | | | |
+
+**DuPont Interpretation**
+- ROE driven by high **margin** (e.g., luxury brands, software): High-quality, sustainable — least risky driver
+- ROE driven by high **asset turnover** (e.g., retailers, distributors): Efficient but thin — watch for margin erosion
+- ROE driven by high **leverage** (equity multiplier > 3x): Amplified returns but magnified downside — assess debt sustainability carefully
+- Declining ROE: diagnose which factor is deteriorating before drawing conclusions
+
+### Competitive Analysis — Porter's Five Forces
+
+| Force | Intensity (H/M/L) | Key Evidence |
+|-------|------------------|--------------|
+| Threat of New Entrants | | Capital requirements, brand moats, regulatory barriers |
+| Bargaining Power of Suppliers | | Supplier concentration, switching costs, input criticality |
+| Bargaining Power of Buyers | | Customer concentration, price sensitivity, alternatives |
+| Threat of Substitutes | | Technology disruption, cross-industry competition |
+| Competitive Rivalry | | Number of peers, market growth rate, differentiation |
+
+**Overall Moat Assessment**: Wide / Narrow / None
+- **Wide moat**: Durable competitive advantage expected to persist 20+ years
+- **Narrow moat**: Competitive advantage present but may erode within 10 years
+- **No moat**: Competing primarily on price or operational efficiency
+
+### Visualization Data Tables
+
+When a visual or report output is needed, populate these tables for chart generation (compatible with `/us-stock-analysis:report-generator`):
+
+**Revenue & Earnings Growth**
+```
+Year    Revenue ($M)    Revenue Growth %    Net Income ($M)    EPS ($)
+2020    [value]         [%]                 [value]            [value]
+2021    [value]         [%]                 [value]            [value]
+2022    [value]         [%]                 [value]            [value]
+2023    [value]         [%]                 [value]            [value]
+2024    [value]         [%]                 [value]            [value]
+```
+
+**Profit Margin Trends**
+```
+Year    Gross Margin %    Operating Margin %    Net Margin %    Industry Avg %
+2020    [%]              [%]                   [%]             [%]
+2021    [%]              [%]                   [%]             [%]
+2022    [%]              [%]                   [%]             [%]
+2023    [%]              [%]                   [%]             [%]
+2024    [%]              [%]                   [%]             [%]
+```
+
+**Balance Sheet Composition**
+```
+Year    Current Assets ($M)    Fixed Assets ($M)    Intangibles ($M)    Total Assets ($M)
+2020    [value]               [value]              [value]             [value]
+2021    [value]               [value]              [value]             [value]
+2022    [value]               [value]              [value]             [value]
+2023    [value]               [value]              [value]             [value]
+2024    [value]               [value]              [value]             [value]
+
+Year    Current Liab ($M)    Long-term Debt ($M)    Equity ($M)    Total L+E ($M)
+2020    [value]             [value]                [value]        [value]
+2021    [value]             [value]                [value]        [value]
+2022    [value]             [value]                [value]        [value]
+2023    [value]             [value]                [value]        [value]
+2024    [value]             [value]                [value]        [value]
+```
+
+**Cash Flow Waterfall**
+```
+Component                   Amount ($M)    Notes
+Operating Cash Flow         [value]        Core business generation
+Capital Expenditures        [value]        Investments in assets
+Free Cash Flow             [value]        Available for distribution
+Dividends                  [value]        Shareholder distribution
+Share Buybacks             [value]        Share repurchases
+M&A Activity               [value]        Acquisitions
+Debt Repayment             [value]        Debt reduction
+Net Cash Change            [value]        Bottom line impact
+```
+
+**Valuation Multiples Comparison**
+```
+Metric              Company    Industry Avg    5-Year Avg    Assessment
+P/E Ratio           [value]    [value]         [value]       [Over/Under/Fair]
+P/B Ratio           [value]    [value]         [value]       [Over/Under/Fair]
+P/S Ratio           [value]    [value]         [value]       [Over/Under/Fair]
+EV/EBITDA          [value]    [value]         [value]       [Over/Under/Fair]
+PEG Ratio          [value]    [value]         [value]       [Over/Under/Fair]
+```
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/12-quality-scoring-framework.md

@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
+# Quality Scoring Framework
+
+Part 3 of 6 for `stock-eval` — Quality Scoring Framework; ROIC / WACC Analysis
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Quality Scoring Framework
+
+### Piotroski F-Score (0–9)
+
+The Piotroski F-Score measures financial strength and operating improvement across 9 binary criteria. Each criterion scores 1 (pass) or 0 (fail). Score of 8–9 is strong; 0–2 is weak.
+
+**Profitability Signals (4 criteria):**
+
+| # | Criterion | Formula | Pass Condition | Score |
+|---|-----------|---------|----------------|-------|
+| 1 | ROA > 0 | Net Income / Total Assets | Positive ROA in current year | 0 or 1 |
+| 2 | Operating Cash Flow > 0 | CFO from cash flow statement | Positive CFO | 0 or 1 |
+| 3 | Change in ROA | ROA(t) − ROA(t-1) | ROA improved year-over-year | 0 or 1 |
+| 4 | Accruals (quality) | CFO / Total Assets > ROA | Cash earnings exceed reported earnings | 0 or 1 |
+
+**Leverage, Liquidity & Source of Funds (3 criteria):**
+
+| # | Criterion | Formula | Pass Condition | Score |
+|---|-----------|---------|----------------|-------|
+| 5 | Change in Leverage | Long-term Debt / Avg Assets | Leverage decreased YoY | 0 or 1 |
+| 6 | Change in Liquidity | Current Ratio(t) vs (t-1) | Current ratio improved YoY | 0 or 1 |
+| 7 | No New Shares Issued | Diluted shares outstanding | No new equity issuance in past year | 0 or 1 |
+
+**Operating Efficiency (2 criteria):**
+
+| # | Criterion | Formula | Pass Condition | Score |
+|---|-----------|---------|----------------|-------|
+| 8 | Change in Gross Margin | Gross Margin(t) vs (t-1) | Gross margin expanded YoY | 0 or 1 |
+| 9 | Change in Asset Turnover | Revenue / Total Assets | Asset turnover improved YoY | 0 or 1 |
+
+**F-Score Interpretation:**
+- **8–9**: Strong financial position — high-quality candidate
+- **5–7**: Average quality — neutral
+- **0–2**: Weak financial position — high risk of deterioration
+
+### Earnings Quality Score
+
+- **Accruals Ratio**: (Net Income − CFO) / Average Total Assets. Low or negative accruals indicate high earnings quality (cash-backed profits).
+- **Cash Conversion Rate**: CFO / Net Income. Ratio consistently above 1.0x is positive. Below 0.7x signals potential earnings inflation.
+- **Non-Recurring Items**: Identify and strip out restructuring charges, asset write-downs, gains on asset sales, and one-time tax benefits from normalized earnings.
+- **Revenue Recognition Risk**: Assess channel stuffing, bill-and-hold arrangements, and aggressive deferred revenue recognition.
+
+---
+
+## ROIC / WACC Analysis
+
+### ROIC Calculation
+
+**ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital**
+
+- **NOPAT** (Net Operating Profit After Tax) = EBIT × (1 − effective tax rate)
+- **Invested Capital** = Total Equity + Total Debt − Cash and Cash Equivalents
+- Alternatively: Invested Capital = Net PP&E + Net Working Capital + Goodwill + Other Long-term Operating Assets
+
+| Component                | Value |
+|--------------------------|-------|
+| EBIT                     |       |
+| Effective Tax Rate       |       |
+| NOPAT                    |       |
+| Total Equity             |       |
+| Total Debt               |       |
+| Less: Cash               |       |
+| Invested Capital         |       |
+| **ROIC**                 |       |
+
+### WACC Calculation
+
+**WACC = (E/V) × Re + (D/V) × Rd × (1 − T)**
+
+- **Cost of Equity (Re)** via CAPM: Re = Rf + β × (Rm − Rf)
+  - Rf: Risk-free rate (current 10-year Treasury yield)
+  - β: Stock beta (5-year monthly vs. S&P 500)
+  - (Rm − Rf): Equity risk premium (historical ~5–6%)
+- **Cost of Debt (Rd)**: Weighted average interest rate on outstanding debt
+- **Capital Structure Weights**: E/V = market cap / (market cap + total debt), D/V = total debt / (market cap + total debt)
+- **Tax Shield**: Multiply Rd by (1 − marginal tax rate) to reflect interest deductibility
+
+| Component              | Value |
+|------------------------|-------|
+| Risk-Free Rate (Rf)    |       |
+| Beta (β)               |       |
+| Equity Risk Premium    |       |
+| Cost of Equity (Re)    |       |
+| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt   |       |
+| Tax Rate               |       |
+| After-Tax Cost of Debt |       |
+| Equity Weight (E/V)    |       |
+| Debt Weight (D/V)      |       |
+| **WACC**               |       |
+
+### Economic Value Added (EVA)
+
+**EVA = (ROIC − WACC) × Invested Capital**
+
+- **ROIC > WACC**: Company is creating economic value — every dollar invested earns more than its cost. Strong positive signal.
+- **ROIC = WACC**: Company is breaking even economically — no value creation or destruction.
+- **ROIC < WACC**: Company is destroying shareholder value — capital is deployed below its opportunity cost. Significant warning sign.
+
+ROIC vs. WACC spread trend (expanding = improving value creation, compressing = deteriorating):
+
+| Year    | ROIC | WACC | Spread | EVA |
+|---------|------|------|--------|-----|
+| Current |      |      |        |     |
+| -1 Year |      |      |        |     |
+| -2 Year |      |      |        |     |
+| -3 Year |      |      |        |     |
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/13-dcf-framework.md

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+# DCF Framework
+
+Part 4 of 6 for `stock-eval` — DCF Framework; Management Quality Assessment
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## DCF Framework
+
+### Step-by-Step DCF Methodology
+
+**Step 1 — Project Free Cash Flow (Years 1–10)**
+- Start with current year base FCF = Operating Cash Flow − Maintenance Capex
+- Apply revenue growth rate assumptions (differentiate Phase 1: high growth, Phase 2: fade to stable)
+- Apply operating margin assumptions (expanding/stable/compressing)
+- Deduct taxes and changes in net working capital
+- FCF = NOPAT + D&A − Change in Working Capital − Capex
+
+**Step 2 — Terminal Value Calculation**
+- Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF(Year 10) × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)
+- Exit Multiple Method: TV = EBITDA(Year 10) × Terminal EV/EBITDA multiple
+- Terminal growth rate (g): typically 2–3% (in line with long-run nominal GDP growth)
+- Cross-check both methods for reasonableness
+
+**Step 3 — Discount to Present Value**
+- Discount each year's FCF: PV(FCFt) = FCFt / (1 + WACC)^t
+- Discount terminal value: PV(TV) = TV / (1 + WACC)^10
+- Enterprise Value = Sum of all discounted FCFs + PV(Terminal Value)
+- Equity Value = Enterprise Value − Net Debt
+- Intrinsic Value Per Share = Equity Value / Diluted Shares Outstanding
+
+### Key Assumptions
+
+| Assumption             | Base Case | Bull Case | Bear Case |
+|------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
+| Revenue Growth Yr 1–5  |           |           |           |
+| Revenue Growth Yr 6–10 |           |           |           |
+| Operating Margin       |           |           |           |
+| Tax Rate               |           |           |           |
+| Capex (% Revenue)      |           |           |           |
+| WACC                   |           |           |           |
+| Terminal Growth Rate   |           |           |           |
+| Terminal EV/EBITDA     |           |           |           |
+
+### Sensitivity Table
+
+Intrinsic value per share at various WACC and terminal growth rate combinations:
+
+| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 1.5%  | 2.0%  | 2.5%  | 3.0%  | 3.5%  |
+|------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|
+| 7%                     |       |       |       |       |       |
+| 8%                     |       |       |       |       |       |
+| 9%                     |       |       |       |       |       |
+| 10%                    |       |       |       |       |       |
+| 11%                    |       |       |       |       |       |
+
+### Margin of Safety Assessment
+
+- **Intrinsic Value (Base Case)**:
+- **Current Market Price**:
+- **Premium / (Discount) to Intrinsic Value**:
+- **Margin of Safety**: (Intrinsic Value − Market Price) / Intrinsic Value × 100%
+  - > 30% discount: Significant margin of safety — compelling value
+  - 10–30% discount: Moderate margin of safety — attractive
+  - 0–10% discount: Limited margin of safety — fairly valued
+  - Trading at premium: No margin of safety — risk of capital loss if assumptions miss
+
+---
+
+## Management Quality Assessment
+
+### Capital Allocation Track Record
+
+- **ROIC Trend**: Is management generating returns above cost of capital consistently? Review 5-year ROIC history.
+- **Acquisition History**: Evaluate past M&A for value creation. Did acquired assets earn above WACC? Were goodwill impairments taken post-acquisition?
+- **Buyback Timing**: Did management repurchase shares below intrinsic value? Assess buyback price vs. subsequent performance.
+- **Dividend Policy**: Sustainable payout ratio? Dividend growth track record. Balance between dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
+- **Capex Discipline**: Differentiate growth capex vs. maintenance capex. Asset-light vs. capital-intensive business assessment.
+
+### Guidance Accuracy History (Last 8 Quarters)
+
+| Quarter  | EPS Guidance | EPS Actual | Beat/Miss | Revenue Guidance | Revenue Actual | Beat/Miss |
+|----------|-------------|------------|-----------|------------------|----------------|-----------|
+| Q1       |             |            |           |                  |                |           |
+| Q2       |             |            |           |                  |                |           |
+| Q3       |             |            |           |                  |                |           |
+| Q4       |             |            |           |                  |                |           |
+| Q5       |             |            |           |                  |                |           |
+| Q6       |             |            |           |                  |                |           |
+| Q7       |             |            |           |                  |                |           |
+| Q8       |             |            |           |                  |                |           |
+| **Rate** |             |            | X/8       |                  |                | X/8       |
+
+- Beat rate above 75% (6+/8) is strong. Below 50% suggests overpromising or deteriorating visibility.
+- Assess guidance conservatism (sandbagging tendency) vs. optimism bias.
+
+### Insider Ownership Alignment
+
+- **CEO ownership** (% of shares outstanding): > 3% meaningful, > 10% highly aligned
+- **Board ownership**: Independent directors with meaningful personal stakes indicate alignment
+- **Recent insider transactions**: Open-market buys are strongly positive; sells can be routine diversification
+- **Insider buy/sell ratio** over past 12 months
+- **10b5-1 plan activity**: Scheduled plan sales are less informative than discretionary transactions
+
+### Compensation Structure
+
+- **Pay-for-performance alignment**: Are bonuses and equity vesting tied to ROIC, FCF, and total shareholder return (TSR)?
+- **Long-term equity grants**: Stock option or RSU vesting periods (3+ years preferred)
+- **CEO pay ratio**: Context for compensation relative to company size and peers
+- **Say-on-pay vote**: Shareholder approval percentage in most recent proxy vote
+- **Excessive compensation red flags**: Guaranteed bonuses, repriced options, change-of-control severance packages
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/14-analyst-consensus-tracking.md

@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+# Analyst Consensus Tracking
+
+Part 5 of 6 for `stock-eval` — Analyst Consensus Tracking; Risk Assessment Matrix; Output Format; Standard Signal Output
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Analyst Consensus Tracking
+
+### Current Consensus Summary
+
+| Metric               | Value |
+|----------------------|-------|
+| Buy Ratings          | X (X%) |
+| Hold Ratings         | X (X%) |
+| Sell Ratings         | X (X%) |
+| Mean Price Target    |       |
+| High Price Target    |       |
+| Low Price Target     |       |
+| Current Price        |       |
+| Upside to Mean Target|       |
+| # of Analysts        |       |
+
+**Consensus interpretation:**
+- >70% Buy with >20% upside to mean target: Strong consensus support
+- Mixed ratings with tight price target range: Consensus uncertainty
+- >30% Sell ratings or mean target below current price: Consensus cautious
+
+### Estimate Revision Trend
+
+Track the direction of earnings estimate changes over time:
+
+| Period       | EPS Estimate (Current FY) | Change vs. 30 Days Ago | Change vs. 90 Days Ago |
+|--------------|--------------------------|------------------------|------------------------|
+| Current FY   |                          |                        |                        |
+| Next FY      |                          |                        |                        |
+| Revenue (FY) |                          |                        |                        |
+
+- **Estimates rising**: Positive revision momentum — analysts upgrading expectations
+- **Estimates falling**: Negative revision momentum — earnings risk, watch for guidance cuts
+- **Stable estimates**: Predictable business with low estimate volatility
+
+### Earnings Estimate Revision Momentum (ERM Signal)
+
+- ERM = (Number of upward revisions − Number of downward revisions) / Total revisions over 30 days
+- **ERM > +0.3**: Strong positive momentum — bullish signal
+- **ERM −0.3 to +0.3**: Neutral
+- **ERM < −0.3**: Negative momentum — bearish signal
+- Most reliable when combined with price momentum confirmation
+
+---
+
+## Risk Assessment Matrix
+
+### Business Risk
+
+| Risk Factor        | Level (L/M/H) | Notes |
+|--------------------|---------------|-------|
+| Industry cyclicality |             |       |
+| Competitive intensity |            |       |
+| Disruption threat  |               |       |
+| Customer concentration |           |       |
+| Supplier concentration |           |       |
+| Regulatory exposure |              |       |
+| ESG / litigation   |               |       |
+
+### Financial Risk
+
+| Risk Factor        | Level (L/M/H) | Notes |
+|--------------------|---------------|-------|
+| Leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA) |       |       |
+| Liquidity (Current Ratio) |        |       |
+| Refinancing risk (near-term maturities) |  | |
+| Covenant compliance |              |       |
+| Pension obligations |              |       |
+| Off-balance-sheet items |          |       |
+
+**Leverage thresholds (Net Debt/EBITDA):**
+- < 1.0x: Conservative, strong balance sheet
+- 1.0–2.5x: Moderate, manageable
+- 2.5–4.0x: Elevated, monitor closely
+- > 4.0x: High financial risk, limited flexibility
+
+### Valuation Risk
+
+| Scenario                  | Implied Multiple | Notes |
+|---------------------------|-----------------|-------|
+| Bull case intrinsic value  |                |       |
+| Base case intrinsic value  |                |       |
+| Bear case intrinsic value  |                |       |
+| Current market price       |                |       |
+| Premium to bear case       |                |       |
+
+- **Multiple compression scenario**: If sector re-rates to lower multiples (e.g., in rising rate environment), what is the downside?
+- **Earnings miss scenario**: What happens to price if EPS misses by 10%? By 20%?
+- **Sentiment shift risk**: High-multiple, high-expectation stocks carry disproportionate downside on minor guidance cuts.
+
+### Macro Risk
+
+| Factor              | Impact Level | Current Exposure |
+|---------------------|-------------|-----------------|
+| Interest rate sensitivity |       |                 |
+| USD/FX exposure     |             |                 |
+| Commodity cost exposure |         |                 |
+| Tariff / trade risk |             |                 |
+| Geopolitical exposure |           |                 |
+| Regulatory / antitrust |          |                 |
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+Provide clear, actionable insights structured as follows:
+
+1. **Investment Thesis Summary** (2–3 sentences capturing the core bull or bear case)
+2. **Valuation Assessment**: Undervalued / Fairly Valued / Overvalued, with DCF and multiple-based support
+3. **Quality Score**: Piotroski F-Score, Earnings Quality, ROIC vs. WACC verdict
+4. **Management Assessment**: Capital allocator quality, guidance credibility, ownership alignment
+5. **Analyst Consensus**: Current ratings, price target vs. market, estimate revision direction
+6. **Key Risks**: Top 3 risks that could invalidate the thesis
+7. **Price Targets**: Bull / Base / Bear case with probability weighting
+8. **Recommended Entry Zone**: Based on margin of safety and technical support levels
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/15-thesis-invalidation.md

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+# Thesis Invalidation
+
+Part 6 of 6 for `stock-eval` — Thesis Invalidation
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- Piotroski F-Score drops below 3 OR ROIC falls below WACC for 2 quarters
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- F-Score improves to 7+ AND ROIC/WACC spread widens >300bps
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+
+