@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/CHANGELOG.md +76 -3
- package/README.md +4 -2
- package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
- package/config/package.json +1 -1
- package/lib/agents/bash-guard.d.ts +22 -17
- package/lib/agents/bash-guard.js +32 -28
- package/lib/agents/root-tool-policy.d.ts +29 -3
- package/lib/agents/root-tool-policy.js +100 -14
- package/lib/index.js +14 -8
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
- package/package.json +1 -1
- package/preset/capital-generation/README.md +22 -15
- package/preset/capital-generation/agent.patch.yml +20 -4
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-profile/SKILL.md +177 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-protocol/SKILL.md +11 -269
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-query/SKILL.md +109 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-equity-research/SKILL.md +2 -2
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-orchestration/SKILL.md +3 -2
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-evidence/SKILL.md +134 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-protocol/SKILL.md +10 -130
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/UPSTREAM.md +18 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/10k-digest/SKILL.md +10 -296
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/10k-digest/references/10-retrieving-the-filing.md +130 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/10k-digest/references/11-key-metrics-table.md +129 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/10k-digest/references/12-language-mode.md +60 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/SKILL.md +13 -152
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/10-analysis-framework.md +75 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/11-output-and-signal.md +51 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md +44 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +10 -284
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/10-persona.md +113 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/11-section-c-company-specific.md +108 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/12-section-f-90-day.md +85 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/SKILL.md +11 -433
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/references/10-overview.md +82 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/references/11-porter-s-five-forces.md +137 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/references/12-innovation-disruption-assessment.md +112 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/references/13-input-formats.md +130 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/SKILL.md +12 -639
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/10-analysis-framework.md +138 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/11-dividend-history-and-reliability.md +131 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/12-share-buyback-analysis.md +125 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/13-fcf-deployment-scorecard.md +133 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/14-output.md +149 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/SKILL.md +10 -411
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/10-analysis-framework.md +194 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/11-data-sources.md +196 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md +43 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/SKILL.md +11 -234
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/10-overview.md +86 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/11-phase-4-the-implied.md +60 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/12-output-format.md +83 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/13-standard-signal-output.md +34 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/SKILL.md +10 -304
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/references/10-key-economic-indicators.md +98 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/references/11-credit-market-indicators.md +114 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/references/12-recession-probability-scoring.md +114 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/SKILL.md +11 -236
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/references/10-overview.md +83 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/references/11-phase-5-overlap-with.md +69 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/references/12-output-format.md +79 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/references/13-standard-signal-output.md +34 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/SKILL.md +11 -243
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/references/10-overview.md +61 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/references/11-phase-2-source-hierarchy.md +54 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/references/12-phase-5-consistency.md +90 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/references/13-notes.md +68 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/SKILL.md +11 -499
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/references/10-overview.md +143 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/references/11-phase-3-financial-statement.md +167 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/references/12-phase-6-management-tone.md +176 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/references/13-thesis-invalidation.md +43 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/industry-map/SKILL.md +10 -291
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/industry-map/references/10-overview.md +117 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/industry-map/references/11-step-3-position-locator.md +112 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/industry-map/references/12-visualization-support.md +84 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/SKILL.md +10 -457
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/10-analysis-framework.md +185 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/11-pattern-recognition.md +175 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/12-interpretation-guidelines.md +120 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/SKILL.md +11 -503
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/10-analysis-framework.md +132 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/11-ownership-concentration-analysis.md +166 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/12-red-flags-warning-signs.md +192 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/13-thesis-invalidation.md +43 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/SKILL.md +11 -264
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/references/10-overview.md +63 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/references/11-phase-2-explanation-card.md +108 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/references/12-output-format.md +88 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/references/13-standard-signal-output.md +34 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/SKILL.md +11 -448
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/references/10-analysis-framework.md +109 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/references/11-implied-volatility-iv-analysis.md +102 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/references/12-earnings-play-analysis.md +109 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/references/13-data-sources.md +159 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/SKILL.md +11 -435
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/references/10-phase-1-portfolio-snapshot.md +124 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/references/11-phase-6-correlation-diversification.md +124 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/references/12-phase-9-rebalancing-decision.md +153 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/references/13-data-verification.md +62 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/SKILL.md +11 -372
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/references/10-overview.md +102 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/references/11-phase-3-the-trim.md +88 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/references/12-phase-6-the-thesis.md +105 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/references/13-input-formats.md +105 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/risk-stress-test/SKILL.md +10 -250
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/risk-stress-test/references/10-overview.md +92 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/risk-stress-test/references/11-phase-4-correlation-spike.md +116 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/risk-stress-test/references/12-notes.md +65 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/SKILL.md +11 -381
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/references/10-sector-overview.md +123 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/references/11-sector-correlation-matrix.md +90 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/references/12-peer-benchmarking-within-sector.md +92 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/references/13-consumer-staples.md +105 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/short-interest/SKILL.md +10 -352
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/short-interest/references/10-analysis-framework.md +110 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/short-interest/references/11-bearish-thesis-evaluation.md +118 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/short-interest/references/12-data-sources.md +148 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/SKILL.md +16 -603
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/10-analysis-components.md +122 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/11-dupont-decomposition.md +121 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/12-quality-scoring-framework.md +115 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/13-dcf-framework.md +113 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/14-analyst-consensus-tracking.md +127 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/15-thesis-invalidation.md +43 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/SKILL.md +13 -177
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/10-scoring-framework.md +85 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/11-output-format.md +58 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/12-invalidation-and-signal.md +51 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/SKILL.md +12 -595
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/10-overview.md +133 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/11-method-2-comparable-company.md +127 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/12-football-field-summary-valuation.md +140 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/13-terminal-value-two-methods.md +121 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/14-when-dcf-is.md +110 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/SKILL.md +12 -304
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/10-overview.md +73 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/11-phase-3-dividends-qualified.md +67 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/12-framework-non-us-module.md +61 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/13-scoring-tax-efficiency-score.md +83 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/14-thesis-invalidation.md +55 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/SKILL.md +16 -612
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/10-chart-pattern-analysis.md +172 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/11-chart-visualization-support.md +181 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/12-multi-timeframe-analysis-mtf.md +95 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/13-advanced-indicators-ichimoku-cloud.md +61 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/14-options-flow-integration.md +95 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/15-thesis-invalidation.md +45 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md +10 -274
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/thesis-tracker/references/10-overview.md +94 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/thesis-tracker/references/11-phase-5-the-pre.md +113 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/thesis-tracker/references/12-example.md +90 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +18 -184
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/10-catalyst-types.md +64 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/11-workflow-and-calendar.md +131 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/SKILL.md +16 -195
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/references/10-workflow.md +201 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/SKILL.md +17 -156
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/references/10-workflow.md +161 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/SKILL.md +31 -122
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{01-decision-posture.md → 01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md} +0 -119
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/01-decision-posture-D05-D09.md +123 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/02-business-economics-B01-B03.md +94 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{02-business-economics.md → 02-business-economics-B04-B07.md} +3 -93
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{03-management-governance.md → 03-management-governance-M01-M04.md} +0 -93
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/03-management-governance-M05-M08.md +97 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/04-financial-reality-F01-F03.md +95 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{04-financial-reality.md → 04-financial-reality-F04-F07.md} +3 -94
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{05-valuation.md → 05-valuation-V01-V03.md} +0 -72
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/05-valuation-V04-V06.md +76 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{06-capital-allocation.md → 06-capital-allocation-C01-C04.md} +0 -115
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/06-capital-allocation-C05-C09.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{07-risk-monitoring.md → 07-risk-monitoring-R01-R03.md} +0 -94
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/07-risk-monitoring-R04-R07.md +98 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S01-S03.md +99 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S04-S06.md +72 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S07-S09.md +74 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S10-S12.md +76 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/09-workflows.md +96 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/10-method.md +12 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/11-deterministic-router.md +11 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/SKILL.md +12 -86
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/10-workflow.md +94 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-1.md +220 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-2.md +146 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-3.md +114 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-4.md +113 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology.md +8 -521
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-1.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-2.md +82 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-3.md +158 -0
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- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research.md +8 -454
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-1.md +155 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-2.md +43 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology.md +6 -180
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-1.md +114 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-2.md +180 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-3.md +92 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research.md +7 -359
- package/watchlist/package.json +1 -1
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays.md +0 -309
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### M05 — Test Culture and the Institutional Imperative Through Behavior
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- **Decision question:** Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract,
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reward, normalize, and reproduce?
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forecasts, costs, imitation, and reactions to mistakes—not declared values.
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change indicators.
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- **Limits:** Culture is neither automatic nor irreversible; leave durability unresolved
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when evidence is anecdotal or leader dependent.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *defines*: institutional imperative.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BH2002; BH2014.
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### M06 — Assess Decentralization, Controls, and Bad-News Flow
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- **Decision question:** Does authority sit with capable operators while audit,
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compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective?
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- **Guidance:** Evaluate autonomy and control together; decentralization requires
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capable managers, protected escalation, and explicit retained controls.
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- **Use when:** Decentralized groups, holding companies, autonomous subsidiaries, or
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multilayer information flow.
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- **Analytical actions:** Map delegated and retained authorities; test audit,
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compliance, whistleblower, and bad-news channels; review detection and correction of
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errors.
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- **Output:** An authority-and-control matrix with escalation paths, failure examples,
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and unresolved dependencies.
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- **Limits:** Centralization can also fail and visible mistakes may be an accepted cost;
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absent incident evidence leaves control quality unresolved.
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- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; LOW ch.15 (two-level control structure).
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<a id="m07"></a>
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### M07 — Test Substantive Board Independence and Power
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- **Decision question:** Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management
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when owner interests require it?
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- **Guidance:** Judge independence by competence, economic independence, information,
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deliberation, and willingness to oppose or replace management—not formal labels.
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- **Use when:** Board oversight, CEO power, deals, compensation, conflicts, or
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controlling ownership affects the thesis.
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- **Analytical actions:** Map skills, ties, information, and voting power; inspect
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dissent mechanisms; review behavior during conflicts or underperformance.
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- **Output:** A board-power assessment separating formal status from demonstrated
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capability and action.
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- **Limits:** Ownership and private sessions do not create judgment; unobservable
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conflict behavior leaves independence unresolved.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *supports*: business savvy is
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indispensable for corporate directors.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2019 annual letter** — *implements*: boards should hear
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informed opposition to acquisitions.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.B; BH2014; FL2025.
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<a id="m08"></a>
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### M08 — Assess Role-Specific Succession and Control Continuity
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- **Decision question:** Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles
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transfer without losing capability or fair treatment?
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- **Guidance:** Assess succession by role, horizon, emergency readiness, delegated
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experience, and control-transfer mechanics; a name is not proof.
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- **Use when:** Key-person dependence, controlling ownership, aging leadership, estate
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plans, voting arrangements, or role concentration.
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- **Analytical actions:** Separate role successions; inspect emergency and long-term
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plans and staged responsibility; map voting, estate, and sale mechanics.
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- **Output:** A role-specific continuity map with successor evidence, control
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transitions, triggers, and unresolved dependencies.
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- **Limits:** Private plans may remain undisclosed and legal or tax mechanics can
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change; names or assurances alone leave readiness unresolved.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: succession role separation.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *implements*: document emergency
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successors with strengths and weaknesses.
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- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; FL2025.
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# Management, Governance, and Culture · Part 2 of 2 (M05-M08)
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Cards M05, M06, M07, M08 of this module. Part 1 (`03-management-governance-M01-M04.md`) holds the module title and card index.
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Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
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### M05 — Test Culture and the Institutional Imperative Through Behavior
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- **Decision question:** Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract,
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reward, normalize, and reproduce?
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10
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- **Guidance:** Treat culture as a system expressed through hiring, incentives,
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forecasts, costs, imitation, and reactions to mistakes—not declared values.
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12
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- **Use when:** A thesis depends on durable organizational behavior, acquisition
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appetite, cost discipline, forecasting, or decentralization.
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14
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- **Analytical actions:** Identify repeated behaviors; trace reinforcing mechanisms;
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search for actions contradicting the declared culture.
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16
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- **Output:** A culture-mechanism map with reinforcing behaviors, contradictions, and
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17
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change indicators.
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18
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- **Limits:** Culture is neither automatic nor irreversible; leave durability unresolved
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when evidence is anecdotal or leader dependent.
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20
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- **Source basis:**
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21
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *defines*: institutional imperative.
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22
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: long term growth forecasts
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23
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can corrupt managerial behavior.
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24
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BH2002; BH2014.
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<a id="m06"></a>
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### M06 — Assess Decentralization, Controls, and Bad-News Flow
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- **Decision question:** Does authority sit with capable operators while audit,
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compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective?
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- **Guidance:** Evaluate autonomy and control together; decentralization requires
|
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33
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capable managers, protected escalation, and explicit retained controls.
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34
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- **Use when:** Decentralized groups, holding companies, autonomous subsidiaries, or
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35
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multilayer information flow.
|
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36
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- **Analytical actions:** Map delegated and retained authorities; test audit,
|
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37
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+
compliance, whistleblower, and bad-news channels; review detection and correction of
|
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38
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errors.
|
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39
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- **Output:** An authority-and-control matrix with escalation paths, failure examples,
|
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40
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and unresolved dependencies.
|
|
41
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+
- **Limits:** Centralization can also fail and visible mistakes may be an accepted cost;
|
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42
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absent incident evidence leaves control quality unresolved.
|
|
43
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
44
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1991 annual letter** — *implements*: decentralize operations
|
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45
|
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centralize capital allocation.
|
|
46
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2004 annual letter** — *qualifies*: decentralized companies
|
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47
|
+
need protected whistleblower channel.
|
|
48
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- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; LOW ch.15 (two-level control structure).
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49
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50
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<a id="m07"></a>
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51
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|
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52
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### M07 — Test Substantive Board Independence and Power
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53
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|
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54
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- **Decision question:** Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management
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55
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when owner interests require it?
|
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56
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- **Guidance:** Judge independence by competence, economic independence, information,
|
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57
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deliberation, and willingness to oppose or replace management—not formal labels.
|
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58
|
+
- **Use when:** Board oversight, CEO power, deals, compensation, conflicts, or
|
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59
|
+
controlling ownership affects the thesis.
|
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60
|
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- **Analytical actions:** Map skills, ties, information, and voting power; inspect
|
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61
|
+
dissent mechanisms; review behavior during conflicts or underperformance.
|
|
62
|
+
- **Output:** A board-power assessment separating formal status from demonstrated
|
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63
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capability and action.
|
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64
|
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- **Limits:** Ownership and private sessions do not create judgment; unobservable
|
|
65
|
+
conflict behavior leaves independence unresolved.
|
|
66
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *supports*: business savvy is
|
|
68
|
+
indispensable for corporate directors.
|
|
69
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2019 annual letter** — *implements*: boards should hear
|
|
70
|
+
informed opposition to acquisitions.
|
|
71
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.B; BH2014; FL2025.
|
|
72
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+
|
|
73
|
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<a id="m08"></a>
|
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74
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|
|
75
|
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### M08 — Assess Role-Specific Succession and Control Continuity
|
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76
|
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|
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77
|
+
- **Decision question:** Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles
|
|
78
|
+
transfer without losing capability or fair treatment?
|
|
79
|
+
- **Guidance:** Assess succession by role, horizon, emergency readiness, delegated
|
|
80
|
+
experience, and control-transfer mechanics; a name is not proof.
|
|
81
|
+
- **Use when:** Key-person dependence, controlling ownership, aging leadership, estate
|
|
82
|
+
plans, voting arrangements, or role concentration.
|
|
83
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Separate role successions; inspect emergency and long-term
|
|
84
|
+
plans and staged responsibility; map voting, estate, and sale mechanics.
|
|
85
|
+
- **Output:** A role-specific continuity map with successor evidence, control
|
|
86
|
+
transitions, triggers, and unresolved dependencies.
|
|
87
|
+
- **Limits:** Private plans may remain undisclosed and legal or tax mechanics can
|
|
88
|
+
change; names or assurances alone leave readiness unresolved.
|
|
89
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
90
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: succession role separation.
|
|
91
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *implements*: document emergency
|
|
92
|
+
successors with strengths and weaknesses.
|
|
93
|
+
- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; FL2025.
|
|
94
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|
|
95
|
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# Financial Reality and Owner Economics
|
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2
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+
|
|
3
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Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
|
|
4
|
+
Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
|
|
5
|
+
return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
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|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
Read this file when reconciling filings, owner earnings, segments, capital returns, or
|
|
8
|
+
obligations. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole module by
|
|
9
|
+
default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
|
|
10
|
+
[source key](00-source-key.md).
|
|
11
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+
|
|
12
|
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## Card Index
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|
13
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|
|
14
|
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| Card | Decision question |
|
|
15
|
+
| --- | --- |
|
|
16
|
+
| [F01](#f01) | What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind the reported result? |
|
|
17
|
+
| [F02](#f02) | How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive position or unit volume? |
|
|
18
|
+
| [F03](#f03) | Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains trapped, or is actually distributable? |
|
|
19
|
+
| [F04](#f04) | What economics accrue through minority interests, segments, and holding structures despite reported presentation? |
|
|
20
|
+
| [F05](#f05) | What recurring earning power belongs to each distinct business across a representative period? |
|
|
21
|
+
| [F06](#f06) | What normalized unleveraged returns does the business earn on required tangible capital, and what has additional capital produced? |
|
|
22
|
+
| [F07](#f07) | What disclosed or implied claims could absorb cash materially beyond reported earnings or liabilities? |
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
## Complete Cards
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
<a id="f01"></a>
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
### F01 — Reconstruct Economic Substance from Accounting
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
- **Decision question:** What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind
|
|
31
|
+
the reported result?
|
|
32
|
+
- **Guidance:** Begin with audited figures and reconcile every adjustment back to them;
|
|
33
|
+
accounting rules are inputs, not permission to discard costs.
|
|
34
|
+
- **Use when:** Accounting form, rule changes, acquisition accounting, noncash charges,
|
|
35
|
+
consolidation, or management metrics may obscure economics.
|
|
36
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Inventory policies and changes; reconcile totals to the
|
|
37
|
+
analytical view; explain the economic reason for every adjustment.
|
|
38
|
+
- **Output:** A reported-to-economic bridge with source, amount, rationale, and
|
|
39
|
+
unresolved items for each adjustment.
|
|
40
|
+
- **Limits:** Adjustments can introduce bias and false precision; unsupported
|
|
41
|
+
substitutions or an unreconciled bridge remain unresolved.
|
|
42
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
43
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *supports*: accounting numbers begin not
|
|
44
|
+
end valuation.
|
|
45
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2001 annual letter** — *illustrates*: goodwill rule change
|
|
46
|
+
raises reported not economic earnings.
|
|
47
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; EWB §V.D; OM1996; BH2014.
|
|
48
|
+
|
|
49
|
+
<a id="f02"></a>
|
|
50
|
+
|
|
51
|
+
### F02 — Estimate Owner Earnings After All Real Costs
|
|
52
|
+
|
|
53
|
+
- **Decision question:** How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive
|
|
54
|
+
position or unit volume?
|
|
55
|
+
- **Guidance:** Restore noncash charges only when they are not economic depletion and
|
|
56
|
+
subtract maintenance capital, required working capital, compensation, and recurring
|
|
57
|
+
costs; use supported ranges.
|
|
58
|
+
- **Use when:** Cash removability or distributable earning power matters to valuation,
|
|
59
|
+
reinvestment, or payout analysis.
|
|
60
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Show every adjustment; estimate maintenance capital and
|
|
61
|
+
working capital across a representative period; sensitize judgmental components.
|
|
62
|
+
- **Output:** A reconciled owner-earnings range with assumptions, sensitivities, and
|
|
63
|
+
blocked components.
|
|
64
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+
- **Limits:** Maintenance and growth overlap and depreciation or amortization may
|
|
65
|
+
misstate depletion; unbounded material needs leave the result unresolved.
|
|
66
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
|
|
68
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: depreciation represents real
|
|
69
|
+
maintenance capital cost.
|
|
70
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.D; BH2002; BH2014; BH2023.
|
|
71
|
+
|
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72
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+
<a id="f03"></a>
|
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73
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+
|
|
74
|
+
### F03 — Separate Maintenance, Growth, Restricted, and Distributable Capital
|
|
75
|
+
|
|
76
|
+
- **Decision question:** Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains
|
|
77
|
+
trapped, or is actually distributable?
|
|
78
|
+
- **Guidance:** Classify capital by economic function before treating cash flow as owner
|
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79
|
+
value; required, catch-up, restricted, or low-return reinvestment is not freely
|
|
80
|
+
distributable.
|
|
81
|
+
- **Use when:** Capital-intensive, regulated, cyclical, rapidly growing, or structurally
|
|
82
|
+
restricted businesses.
|
|
83
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Classify spending and working capital; reconcile restrictions
|
|
84
|
+
and reserves; test whether claimed growth spending only preserves economics.
|
|
85
|
+
- **Output:** A schedule of maintenance, growth, catch-up, restricted, and distributable
|
|
86
|
+
amounts or ranges.
|
|
87
|
+
- **Limits:** Categories overlap and management labels may be unreliable; unbounded
|
|
88
|
+
maintenance or restrictions leave distributability unresolved.
|
|
89
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
90
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
|
|
91
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: rapid growth low return
|
|
92
|
+
capital hunger is worst business model.
|
|
93
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; OM1996; BH2023.
|
|
94
|
+
|
|
95
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+
<a id="f04"></a>
|
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@@ -1,98 +1,7 @@
|
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1
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-
# Financial Reality and Owner Economics
|
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1
|
+
# Financial Reality and Owner Economics · Part 2 of 2 (F04-F07)
|
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2
2
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3
|
-
|
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4
|
-
|
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5
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-
return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
|
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6
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-
|
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7
|
-
Read this file when reconciling filings, owner earnings, segments, capital returns, or
|
|
8
|
-
obligations. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole module by
|
|
9
|
-
default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
|
|
10
|
-
[source key](00-source-key.md).
|
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11
|
-
|
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12
|
-
## Card Index
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13
|
-
|
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14
|
-
| Card | Decision question |
|
|
15
|
-
| --- | --- |
|
|
16
|
-
| [F01](#f01) | What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind the reported result? |
|
|
17
|
-
| [F02](#f02) | How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive position or unit volume? |
|
|
18
|
-
| [F03](#f03) | Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains trapped, or is actually distributable? |
|
|
19
|
-
| [F04](#f04) | What economics accrue through minority interests, segments, and holding structures despite reported presentation? |
|
|
20
|
-
| [F05](#f05) | What recurring earning power belongs to each distinct business across a representative period? |
|
|
21
|
-
| [F06](#f06) | What normalized unleveraged returns does the business earn on required tangible capital, and what has additional capital produced? |
|
|
22
|
-
| [F07](#f07) | What disclosed or implied claims could absorb cash materially beyond reported earnings or liabilities? |
|
|
23
|
-
|
|
24
|
-
## Complete Cards
|
|
25
|
-
|
|
26
|
-
<a id="f01"></a>
|
|
27
|
-
|
|
28
|
-
### F01 — Reconstruct Economic Substance from Accounting
|
|
29
|
-
|
|
30
|
-
- **Decision question:** What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind
|
|
31
|
-
the reported result?
|
|
32
|
-
- **Guidance:** Begin with audited figures and reconcile every adjustment back to them;
|
|
33
|
-
accounting rules are inputs, not permission to discard costs.
|
|
34
|
-
- **Use when:** Accounting form, rule changes, acquisition accounting, noncash charges,
|
|
35
|
-
consolidation, or management metrics may obscure economics.
|
|
36
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Inventory policies and changes; reconcile totals to the
|
|
37
|
-
analytical view; explain the economic reason for every adjustment.
|
|
38
|
-
- **Output:** A reported-to-economic bridge with source, amount, rationale, and
|
|
39
|
-
unresolved items for each adjustment.
|
|
40
|
-
- **Limits:** Adjustments can introduce bias and false precision; unsupported
|
|
41
|
-
substitutions or an unreconciled bridge remain unresolved.
|
|
42
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
43
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *supports*: accounting numbers begin not
|
|
44
|
-
end valuation.
|
|
45
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2001 annual letter** — *illustrates*: goodwill rule change
|
|
46
|
-
raises reported not economic earnings.
|
|
47
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; EWB §V.D; OM1996; BH2014.
|
|
48
|
-
|
|
49
|
-
<a id="f02"></a>
|
|
50
|
-
|
|
51
|
-
### F02 — Estimate Owner Earnings After All Real Costs
|
|
52
|
-
|
|
53
|
-
- **Decision question:** How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive
|
|
54
|
-
position or unit volume?
|
|
55
|
-
- **Guidance:** Restore noncash charges only when they are not economic depletion and
|
|
56
|
-
subtract maintenance capital, required working capital, compensation, and recurring
|
|
57
|
-
costs; use supported ranges.
|
|
58
|
-
- **Use when:** Cash removability or distributable earning power matters to valuation,
|
|
59
|
-
reinvestment, or payout analysis.
|
|
60
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Show every adjustment; estimate maintenance capital and
|
|
61
|
-
working capital across a representative period; sensitize judgmental components.
|
|
62
|
-
- **Output:** A reconciled owner-earnings range with assumptions, sensitivities, and
|
|
63
|
-
blocked components.
|
|
64
|
-
- **Limits:** Maintenance and growth overlap and depreciation or amortization may
|
|
65
|
-
misstate depletion; unbounded material needs leave the result unresolved.
|
|
66
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
|
|
68
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: depreciation represents real
|
|
69
|
-
maintenance capital cost.
|
|
70
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.D; BH2002; BH2014; BH2023.
|
|
71
|
-
|
|
72
|
-
<a id="f03"></a>
|
|
73
|
-
|
|
74
|
-
### F03 — Separate Maintenance, Growth, Restricted, and Distributable Capital
|
|
75
|
-
|
|
76
|
-
- **Decision question:** Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains
|
|
77
|
-
trapped, or is actually distributable?
|
|
78
|
-
- **Guidance:** Classify capital by economic function before treating cash flow as owner
|
|
79
|
-
value; required, catch-up, restricted, or low-return reinvestment is not freely
|
|
80
|
-
distributable.
|
|
81
|
-
- **Use when:** Capital-intensive, regulated, cyclical, rapidly growing, or structurally
|
|
82
|
-
restricted businesses.
|
|
83
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Classify spending and working capital; reconcile restrictions
|
|
84
|
-
and reserves; test whether claimed growth spending only preserves economics.
|
|
85
|
-
- **Output:** A schedule of maintenance, growth, catch-up, restricted, and distributable
|
|
86
|
-
amounts or ranges.
|
|
87
|
-
- **Limits:** Categories overlap and management labels may be unreliable; unbounded
|
|
88
|
-
maintenance or restrictions leave distributability unresolved.
|
|
89
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
90
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
|
|
91
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: rapid growth low return
|
|
92
|
-
capital hunger is worst business model.
|
|
93
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; OM1996; BH2023.
|
|
94
|
-
|
|
95
|
-
<a id="f04"></a>
|
|
3
|
+
Cards F04, F05, F06, F07 of this module. Part 1 (`04-financial-reality-F01-F03.md`) holds the module title and card index.
|
|
4
|
+
Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
|
|
96
5
|
|
|
97
6
|
### F04 — Look Through Partial Ownership, Segments, and Holding Structures
|
|
98
7
|
|
|
@@ -92,75 +92,3 @@ Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md
|
|
|
92
92
|
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; BH2002; BH2023.
|
|
93
93
|
|
|
94
94
|
<a id="v04"></a>
|
|
95
|
-
|
|
96
|
-
### V04 — Value Growth Only Through Incremental Capital Economics
|
|
97
|
-
|
|
98
|
-
- **Decision question:** Does projected growth increase future owner cash after funding
|
|
99
|
-
its capital requirements?
|
|
100
|
-
- **Guidance:** Credit growth only through supported changes in owner cash and
|
|
101
|
-
incremental returns; reduce expectations for capital hunger or return decay.
|
|
102
|
-
- **Use when:** Growth contributes materially to valuation or thesis.
|
|
103
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Reconcile growth with incremental capital and owner cash;
|
|
104
|
-
compare returns with opportunity cost; sensitize scale, runway, and funding.
|
|
105
|
-
- **Output:** A growth-value bridge separating revenue growth, required capital,
|
|
106
|
-
incremental return, and owner-cash contribution.
|
|
107
|
-
- **Limits:** Future returns are unobserved; unbounded funding or incremental returns
|
|
108
|
-
leave growth value unresolved.
|
|
109
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
110
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: growth creates value only
|
|
111
|
-
above cost of incremental capital.
|
|
112
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
|
|
113
|
-
through cash flow economics.
|
|
114
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; EWB §III.C; CM50-2015; LOW ch.10 (cable-TV rejection
|
|
115
|
-
case).
|
|
116
|
-
|
|
117
|
-
<a id="v05"></a>
|
|
118
|
-
|
|
119
|
-
### V05 — Expose Assumptions, Sensitivities, and Missing Evidence
|
|
120
|
-
|
|
121
|
-
- **Decision question:** Which assumptions drive the range, how fragile are they, and
|
|
122
|
-
which missing facts block a conclusion?
|
|
123
|
-
- **Guidance:** Make operating, reinvestment, discounting, and terminal assumptions
|
|
124
|
-
explicit; test plausible combinations and identify invalidating evidence.
|
|
125
|
-
- **Use when:** Every material valuation, especially when forecast or model dependence
|
|
126
|
-
is high.
|
|
127
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Rank drivers by impact and uncertainty; run supported scenario
|
|
128
|
-
combinations; map each missing input to the blocked conclusion.
|
|
129
|
-
- **Output:** A sensitivity and missing-evidence register tied to the value range and
|
|
130
|
-
invalidation conditions.
|
|
131
|
-
- **Limits:** Sensitivity cannot validate bad assumptions or assign unsupported
|
|
132
|
-
probabilities; unsupported bounds require no value conclusion.
|
|
133
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
134
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1999 annual letter** — *implements*: estimate intrinsic value
|
|
135
|
-
as a range.
|
|
136
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Precision Castparts
|
|
137
|
-
overpayment from earnings overestimate.
|
|
138
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; BH2002; BH2014.
|
|
139
|
-
|
|
140
|
-
<a id="v06"></a>
|
|
141
|
-
|
|
142
|
-
### V06 — Require a Margin of Safety Proportionate to Uncertainty
|
|
143
|
-
|
|
144
|
-
- **Decision question:** Is the price-value gap adequate for uncertainty, resilience,
|
|
145
|
-
financing, and downside shown by the evidence?
|
|
146
|
-
- **Guidance:** Compare price with the conservative end of a supported range and require
|
|
147
|
-
more room for greater uncertainty; a discount cannot cure fragility.
|
|
148
|
-
- **Use when:** A defensible value range and downside analysis exist and price is in
|
|
149
|
-
scope.
|
|
150
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Quantify scenario gaps; tie required room to named
|
|
151
|
-
uncertainty; test whether the discount survives adverse assumptions.
|
|
152
|
-
- **Output:** A price-value table with scenario gaps, uncertainty drivers, and an
|
|
153
|
-
adequate, inadequate, or unresolved analytical finding.
|
|
154
|
-
- **Limits:** No universal discount applies; missing price or value leaves the result
|
|
155
|
-
unresolved, and the finding is not trade authority.
|
|
156
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
157
|
-
- **Warren Buffett’s 1984 essay “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville”** —
|
|
158
|
-
*defines*: margin of safety.
|
|
159
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Precision Castparts
|
|
160
|
-
overpayment from earnings overestimate.
|
|
161
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; BH2025; LOW ch.5 (franchise-value margin evolution); LOW
|
|
162
|
-
ch.8 (Washington Post discount case).
|
|
163
|
-
|
|
164
|
-
<!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
|
|
165
|
-
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|
|
166
|
-
-->
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Valuation and Price Discipline · Part 2 of 2 (V04-V06)
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Cards V04, V05, V06 of this module. Part 1 (`05-valuation-V01-V03.md`) holds the module title and card index.
|
|
4
|
+
Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
### V04 — Value Growth Only Through Incremental Capital Economics
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
- **Decision question:** Does projected growth increase future owner cash after funding
|
|
9
|
+
its capital requirements?
|
|
10
|
+
- **Guidance:** Credit growth only through supported changes in owner cash and
|
|
11
|
+
incremental returns; reduce expectations for capital hunger or return decay.
|
|
12
|
+
- **Use when:** Growth contributes materially to valuation or thesis.
|
|
13
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Reconcile growth with incremental capital and owner cash;
|
|
14
|
+
compare returns with opportunity cost; sensitize scale, runway, and funding.
|
|
15
|
+
- **Output:** A growth-value bridge separating revenue growth, required capital,
|
|
16
|
+
incremental return, and owner-cash contribution.
|
|
17
|
+
- **Limits:** Future returns are unobserved; unbounded funding or incremental returns
|
|
18
|
+
leave growth value unresolved.
|
|
19
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
20
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: growth creates value only
|
|
21
|
+
above cost of incremental capital.
|
|
22
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
|
|
23
|
+
through cash flow economics.
|
|
24
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; EWB §III.C; CM50-2015; LOW ch.10 (cable-TV rejection
|
|
25
|
+
case).
|
|
26
|
+
|
|
27
|
+
<a id="v05"></a>
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
### V05 — Expose Assumptions, Sensitivities, and Missing Evidence
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
- **Decision question:** Which assumptions drive the range, how fragile are they, and
|
|
32
|
+
which missing facts block a conclusion?
|
|
33
|
+
- **Guidance:** Make operating, reinvestment, discounting, and terminal assumptions
|
|
34
|
+
explicit; test plausible combinations and identify invalidating evidence.
|
|
35
|
+
- **Use when:** Every material valuation, especially when forecast or model dependence
|
|
36
|
+
is high.
|
|
37
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Rank drivers by impact and uncertainty; run supported scenario
|
|
38
|
+
combinations; map each missing input to the blocked conclusion.
|
|
39
|
+
- **Output:** A sensitivity and missing-evidence register tied to the value range and
|
|
40
|
+
invalidation conditions.
|
|
41
|
+
- **Limits:** Sensitivity cannot validate bad assumptions or assign unsupported
|
|
42
|
+
probabilities; unsupported bounds require no value conclusion.
|
|
43
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
44
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1999 annual letter** — *implements*: estimate intrinsic value
|
|
45
|
+
as a range.
|
|
46
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Precision Castparts
|
|
47
|
+
overpayment from earnings overestimate.
|
|
48
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; BH2002; BH2014.
|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
<a id="v06"></a>
|
|
51
|
+
|
|
52
|
+
### V06 — Require a Margin of Safety Proportionate to Uncertainty
|
|
53
|
+
|
|
54
|
+
- **Decision question:** Is the price-value gap adequate for uncertainty, resilience,
|
|
55
|
+
financing, and downside shown by the evidence?
|
|
56
|
+
- **Guidance:** Compare price with the conservative end of a supported range and require
|
|
57
|
+
more room for greater uncertainty; a discount cannot cure fragility.
|
|
58
|
+
- **Use when:** A defensible value range and downside analysis exist and price is in
|
|
59
|
+
scope.
|
|
60
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Quantify scenario gaps; tie required room to named
|
|
61
|
+
uncertainty; test whether the discount survives adverse assumptions.
|
|
62
|
+
- **Output:** A price-value table with scenario gaps, uncertainty drivers, and an
|
|
63
|
+
adequate, inadequate, or unresolved analytical finding.
|
|
64
|
+
- **Limits:** No universal discount applies; missing price or value leaves the result
|
|
65
|
+
unresolved, and the finding is not trade authority.
|
|
66
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
+
- **Warren Buffett’s 1984 essay “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville”** —
|
|
68
|
+
*defines*: margin of safety.
|
|
69
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Precision Castparts
|
|
70
|
+
overpayment from earnings overestimate.
|
|
71
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; BH2025; LOW ch.5 (franchise-value margin evolution); LOW
|
|
72
|
+
ch.8 (Washington Post discount case).
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
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|
|
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|
+
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|
+
-->
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@@ -121,118 +121,3 @@ Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §III.C; OM1996; BH2014; LOW ch.15 (subsidiary retention test).
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<a id="c05"></a>
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### C05 — Return Surplus Capital When No Better Use Exists
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- **Decision question:** After protected reserves and productive uses, is capital
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genuinely surplus?
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- **Guidance:** Treat payout as the consequence of no better supported deployment, not a
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fixed preference; distinguish distribution from central redeployment.
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- **Use when:** Mature or capital-light operations generate cash beyond maintenance,
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growth, obligations, and resilience needs.
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- **Analytical actions:** Reconcile distributable cash after C02; compare C03
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alternatives; show tax, control, and owner-treatment effects of payout channels.
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- **Output:** A surplus-capital ledger with amounts blocked, deployable, distributable,
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or unresolved.
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- **Limits:** Legal, tax, contractual, and balance-sheet limits may block payout; an
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incomplete reserve or opportunity set means no surplus finding.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1984 annual letter** — *implements*: Berkshire dividend policy
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uses value creation threshold.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: redeploy cash from high
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return low reinvestment businesses.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §III.C; BH2014; LOW ch.15 (distribution threshold case).
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<a id="c06"></a>
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### C06 — Repurchase Only Below Value with Surplus Capacity and Material Effect
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- **Decision question:** Will repurchase materially improve continuing-owner value
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without weakening resilience or unfairly transferring value?
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- **Guidance:** Require conservative undervaluation, protected liquidity, fair
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disclosure, superior alternatives, and meaningful per-share effect.
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- **Use when:** An issuer proposes, conducts, or defends a material repurchase.
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- **Analytical actions:** Compare price with value; recheck capacity and alternatives;
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quantify shares retired, financing, per-share effect, and transfers.
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- **Output:** A repurchase worksheet with value, capacity, materiality, fairness,
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alternatives, and unresolved assumptions.
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- **Limits:** Value is uncertain and above-value purchases can transfer wealth; the
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worksheet authorizes no repurchase or trade.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1980 annual letter** — *implements*: repurchase below intrinsic
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value.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1999 annual letter** — *qualifies*: above value repurchases
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transfer wealth from continuing owners.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §IV.B; BH2014; BH2022; LOW ch.10 (Washington Post repurchases).
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<a id="c07"></a>
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### C07 — Issue Shares Only Value for Value
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- **Decision question:** Does issuing equity give owners at least as much durable value
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and resilience as the interest surrendered?
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- **Guidance:** Analyze issuance as a partial sale of owner assets and compare value
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surrendered with assets, claims extinguished, or resilience received.
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- **Use when:** Stock-financed acquisitions, compensation issuance, conversion,
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recapitalization, or balance-sheet repair.
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- **Analytical actions:** Estimate value and ownership surrendered; value consideration
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and resilience received; reconcile to continuing-owner value rather than optics.
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- **Output:** An issuance exchange bridge with ownership transfer, proceeds, financing
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effects, and per-share result.
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- **Limits:** Issuance can rationally improve resilience and both sides are uncertain;
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missing estimates leave the exchange unresolved.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *implements*: share issuance value for
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value rule.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *illustrates*: stock financed bank deal
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destroyed value.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §IV.A; OM1996; LOW ch.12 (stock-deal dilution cases).
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<a id="c08"></a>
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### C08 — Evaluate Acquisitions by Quality, Price, Financing, Alternatives, and Postmortems
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- **Decision question:** Does the complete exchange improve continuing-owner value under
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defensible stand-alone and downside cases?
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- **Guidance:** Evaluate target economics, management, price, financing, dilution,
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alternatives, and realized outcomes together, not EPS or size.
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- **Use when:** A proposed or completed acquisition, merger, or major asset purchase.
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- **Analytical actions:** Underwrite stand-alone quality and owner cash; build a value
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exchange and financing bridge; preserve assumptions for post-closing comparison.
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- **Output:** An acquisition sheet with stand-alone value, consideration, financing,
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alternatives, downside, per-share effect, and postmortem fields.
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- **Limits:** Good businesses can be overpaid for and synergies may matter; unbounded
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economics or consideration leaves the assessment unresolved.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1985 annual letter** — *implements*: Berkshire whole business
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acquisition criteria.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2017 annual letter** — *implements*: evaluate acquisitions on
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all equity basis.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §IV.D; OM1996; BH2014.
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<a id="c09"></a>
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### C09 — Counter Acquisition-Process Bias
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- **Decision question:** Has commitment manufactured confidence through selective
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information, incentives, or optimistic assumptions?
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- **Guidance:** Require an informed opposing case challenging seller information,
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forecasts, turnarounds, synergies, adviser incentives, and deal hunger.
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- **Use when:** A material transaction with committed leadership, seller-controlled
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information, or synergy and turnaround dependence.
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- **Analytical actions:** Build the stand-alone downside before synergies; map
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incentives and information; run a premortem and preserve assumptions.
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- **Output:** An independent deal-challenge memo listing contested assumptions,
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adverse-selection risks, opposing evidence, and unresolved conditions.
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- **Limits:** Seller advantage does not imply fraud, deals do not universally fail, and
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broad acquisition priors cannot determine a specific case.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *supports*: most acquisitions damage
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buyers and seller projections mislead.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2017 annual letter** — *supports*: deal hunger recruits biased
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forecasts and synergies.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §IV.A; EWB §IV.D; BH2014; LOW ch.12 (acquisition ego cases).
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