@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (208) hide show
  1. package/CHANGELOG.md +76 -3
  2. package/README.md +4 -2
  3. package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
  4. package/config/package.json +1 -1
  5. package/lib/agents/bash-guard.d.ts +22 -17
  6. package/lib/agents/bash-guard.js +32 -28
  7. package/lib/agents/root-tool-policy.d.ts +29 -3
  8. package/lib/agents/root-tool-policy.js +100 -14
  9. package/lib/index.js +14 -8
  10. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
  11. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
  12. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
  13. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
  14. package/package.json +1 -1
  15. package/preset/capital-generation/README.md +22 -15
  16. package/preset/capital-generation/agent.patch.yml +20 -4
  17. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-profile/SKILL.md +177 -0
  18. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-protocol/SKILL.md +11 -269
  19. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-query/SKILL.md +109 -0
  20. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-equity-research/SKILL.md +2 -2
  21. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-orchestration/SKILL.md +3 -2
  22. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-evidence/SKILL.md +134 -0
  23. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-protocol/SKILL.md +10 -130
  24. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/UPSTREAM.md +18 -0
  25. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/10k-digest/SKILL.md +10 -296
  26. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/10k-digest/references/10-retrieving-the-filing.md +130 -0
  27. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/10k-digest/references/11-key-metrics-table.md +129 -0
  28. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/10k-digest/references/12-language-mode.md +60 -0
  29. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/SKILL.md +13 -152
  30. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/10-analysis-framework.md +75 -0
  31. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/11-output-and-signal.md +51 -0
  32. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md +44 -0
  33. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +10 -284
  34. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/10-persona.md +113 -0
  35. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/11-section-c-company-specific.md +108 -0
  36. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/references/12-section-f-90-day.md +85 -0
  37. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/SKILL.md +11 -433
  38. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/references/10-overview.md +82 -0
  39. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/references/11-porter-s-five-forces.md +137 -0
  40. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/references/12-innovation-disruption-assessment.md +112 -0
  41. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/competitor-analysis/references/13-input-formats.md +130 -0
  42. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/SKILL.md +12 -639
  43. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/10-analysis-framework.md +138 -0
  44. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/11-dividend-history-and-reliability.md +131 -0
  45. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/12-share-buyback-analysis.md +125 -0
  46. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/13-fcf-deployment-scorecard.md +133 -0
  47. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dividend-analysis/references/14-output.md +149 -0
  48. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/SKILL.md +10 -411
  49. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/10-analysis-framework.md +194 -0
  50. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/11-data-sources.md +196 -0
  51. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md +43 -0
  52. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/SKILL.md +11 -234
  53. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/10-overview.md +86 -0
  54. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/11-phase-4-the-implied.md +60 -0
  55. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/12-output-format.md +83 -0
  56. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/13-standard-signal-output.md +34 -0
  57. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/SKILL.md +10 -304
  58. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/references/10-key-economic-indicators.md +98 -0
  59. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/references/11-credit-market-indicators.md +114 -0
  60. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/references/12-recession-probability-scoring.md +114 -0
  61. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/SKILL.md +11 -236
  62. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/references/10-overview.md +83 -0
  63. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/references/11-phase-5-overlap-with.md +69 -0
  64. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/references/12-output-format.md +79 -0
  65. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/etf-analysis/references/13-standard-signal-output.md +34 -0
  66. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/SKILL.md +11 -243
  67. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/references/10-overview.md +61 -0
  68. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/references/11-phase-2-source-hierarchy.md +54 -0
  69. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/references/12-phase-5-consistency.md +90 -0
  70. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fact-check/references/13-notes.md +68 -0
  71. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/SKILL.md +11 -499
  72. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/references/10-overview.md +143 -0
  73. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/references/11-phase-3-financial-statement.md +167 -0
  74. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/references/12-phase-6-management-tone.md +176 -0
  75. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/financial-report-analyst/references/13-thesis-invalidation.md +43 -0
  76. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/industry-map/SKILL.md +10 -291
  77. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/industry-map/references/10-overview.md +117 -0
  78. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/industry-map/references/11-step-3-position-locator.md +112 -0
  79. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/industry-map/references/12-visualization-support.md +84 -0
  80. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/SKILL.md +10 -457
  81. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/10-analysis-framework.md +185 -0
  82. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/11-pattern-recognition.md +175 -0
  83. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/12-interpretation-guidelines.md +120 -0
  84. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/SKILL.md +11 -503
  85. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/10-analysis-framework.md +132 -0
  86. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/11-ownership-concentration-analysis.md +166 -0
  87. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/12-red-flags-warning-signs.md +192 -0
  88. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/references/13-thesis-invalidation.md +43 -0
  89. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/SKILL.md +11 -264
  90. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/references/10-overview.md +63 -0
  91. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/references/11-phase-2-explanation-card.md +108 -0
  92. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/references/12-output-format.md +88 -0
  93. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/learning-coach/references/13-standard-signal-output.md +34 -0
  94. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/SKILL.md +11 -448
  95. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/references/10-analysis-framework.md +109 -0
  96. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/references/11-implied-volatility-iv-analysis.md +102 -0
  97. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/references/12-earnings-play-analysis.md +109 -0
  98. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/options-analysis/references/13-data-sources.md +159 -0
  99. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/SKILL.md +11 -435
  100. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/references/10-phase-1-portfolio-snapshot.md +124 -0
  101. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/references/11-phase-6-correlation-diversification.md +124 -0
  102. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/references/12-phase-9-rebalancing-decision.md +153 -0
  103. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/portfolio-review/references/13-data-verification.md +62 -0
  104. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/SKILL.md +11 -372
  105. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/references/10-overview.md +102 -0
  106. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/references/11-phase-3-the-trim.md +88 -0
  107. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/references/12-phase-6-the-thesis.md +105 -0
  108. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/position-ladder/references/13-input-formats.md +105 -0
  109. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/risk-stress-test/SKILL.md +10 -250
  110. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/risk-stress-test/references/10-overview.md +92 -0
  111. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/risk-stress-test/references/11-phase-4-correlation-spike.md +116 -0
  112. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/risk-stress-test/references/12-notes.md +65 -0
  113. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/SKILL.md +11 -381
  114. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/references/10-sector-overview.md +123 -0
  115. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/references/11-sector-correlation-matrix.md +90 -0
  116. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/references/12-peer-benchmarking-within-sector.md +92 -0
  117. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/references/13-consumer-staples.md +105 -0
  118. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/short-interest/SKILL.md +10 -352
  119. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/short-interest/references/10-analysis-framework.md +110 -0
  120. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/short-interest/references/11-bearish-thesis-evaluation.md +118 -0
  121. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/short-interest/references/12-data-sources.md +148 -0
  122. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/SKILL.md +16 -603
  123. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/10-analysis-components.md +122 -0
  124. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/11-dupont-decomposition.md +121 -0
  125. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/12-quality-scoring-framework.md +115 -0
  126. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/13-dcf-framework.md +113 -0
  127. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/14-analyst-consensus-tracking.md +127 -0
  128. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-eval/references/15-thesis-invalidation.md +43 -0
  129. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/SKILL.md +13 -177
  130. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/10-scoring-framework.md +85 -0
  131. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/11-output-format.md +58 -0
  132. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/12-invalidation-and-signal.md +51 -0
  133. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/SKILL.md +12 -595
  134. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/10-overview.md +133 -0
  135. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/11-method-2-comparable-company.md +127 -0
  136. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/12-football-field-summary-valuation.md +140 -0
  137. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/13-terminal-value-two-methods.md +121 -0
  138. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-valuation/references/14-when-dcf-is.md +110 -0
  139. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/SKILL.md +12 -304
  140. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/10-overview.md +73 -0
  141. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/11-phase-3-dividends-qualified.md +67 -0
  142. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/12-framework-non-us-module.md +61 -0
  143. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/13-scoring-tax-efficiency-score.md +83 -0
  144. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/tax-lens/references/14-thesis-invalidation.md +55 -0
  145. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/SKILL.md +16 -612
  146. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/10-chart-pattern-analysis.md +172 -0
  147. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/11-chart-visualization-support.md +181 -0
  148. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/12-multi-timeframe-analysis-mtf.md +95 -0
  149. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/13-advanced-indicators-ichimoku-cloud.md +61 -0
  150. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/14-options-flow-integration.md +95 -0
  151. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/15-thesis-invalidation.md +45 -0
  152. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md +10 -274
  153. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/thesis-tracker/references/10-overview.md +94 -0
  154. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/thesis-tracker/references/11-phase-5-the-pre.md +113 -0
  155. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/thesis-tracker/references/12-example.md +90 -0
  156. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
  157. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +18 -184
  158. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/10-catalyst-types.md +64 -0
  159. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/11-workflow-and-calendar.md +131 -0
  160. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/SKILL.md +16 -195
  161. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/references/10-workflow.md +201 -0
  162. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/SKILL.md +17 -156
  163. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/references/10-workflow.md +161 -0
  164. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
  165. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/SKILL.md +31 -122
  166. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{01-decision-posture.md → 01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md} +0 -119
  167. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/01-decision-posture-D05-D09.md +123 -0
  168. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/02-business-economics-B01-B03.md +94 -0
  169. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{02-business-economics.md → 02-business-economics-B04-B07.md} +3 -93
  170. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{03-management-governance.md → 03-management-governance-M01-M04.md} +0 -93
  171. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/03-management-governance-M05-M08.md +97 -0
  172. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/04-financial-reality-F01-F03.md +95 -0
  173. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{04-financial-reality.md → 04-financial-reality-F04-F07.md} +3 -94
  174. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{05-valuation.md → 05-valuation-V01-V03.md} +0 -72
  175. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/05-valuation-V04-V06.md +76 -0
  176. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{06-capital-allocation.md → 06-capital-allocation-C01-C04.md} +0 -115
  177. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/06-capital-allocation-C05-C09.md +119 -0
  178. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{07-risk-monitoring.md → 07-risk-monitoring-R01-R03.md} +0 -94
  179. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/07-risk-monitoring-R04-R07.md +98 -0
  180. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S01-S03.md +99 -0
  181. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S04-S06.md +72 -0
  182. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S07-S09.md +74 -0
  183. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S10-S12.md +76 -0
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  185. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/10-method.md +12 -0
  186. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/11-deterministic-router.md +11 -0
  187. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
  188. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/SKILL.md +12 -86
  189. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/10-workflow.md +94 -0
  190. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-1.md +220 -0
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@@ -118,96 +118,3 @@ Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md
118
118
  - **Corroboration:** EWB §I.E; OM1996; FL2025.
119
119
 
120
120
  <a id="m05"></a>
121
-
122
- ### M05 — Test Culture and the Institutional Imperative Through Behavior
123
-
124
- - **Decision question:** Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract,
125
- reward, normalize, and reproduce?
126
- - **Guidance:** Treat culture as a system expressed through hiring, incentives,
127
- forecasts, costs, imitation, and reactions to mistakes—not declared values.
128
- - **Use when:** A thesis depends on durable organizational behavior, acquisition
129
- appetite, cost discipline, forecasting, or decentralization.
130
- - **Analytical actions:** Identify repeated behaviors; trace reinforcing mechanisms;
131
- search for actions contradicting the declared culture.
132
- - **Output:** A culture-mechanism map with reinforcing behaviors, contradictions, and
133
- change indicators.
134
- - **Limits:** Culture is neither automatic nor irreversible; leave durability unresolved
135
- when evidence is anecdotal or leader dependent.
136
- - **Source basis:**
137
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *defines*: institutional imperative.
138
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: long term growth forecasts
139
- can corrupt managerial behavior.
140
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BH2002; BH2014.
141
-
142
- <a id="m06"></a>
143
-
144
- ### M06 — Assess Decentralization, Controls, and Bad-News Flow
145
-
146
- - **Decision question:** Does authority sit with capable operators while audit,
147
- compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective?
148
- - **Guidance:** Evaluate autonomy and control together; decentralization requires
149
- capable managers, protected escalation, and explicit retained controls.
150
- - **Use when:** Decentralized groups, holding companies, autonomous subsidiaries, or
151
- multilayer information flow.
152
- - **Analytical actions:** Map delegated and retained authorities; test audit,
153
- compliance, whistleblower, and bad-news channels; review detection and correction of
154
- errors.
155
- - **Output:** An authority-and-control matrix with escalation paths, failure examples,
156
- and unresolved dependencies.
157
- - **Limits:** Centralization can also fail and visible mistakes may be an accepted cost;
158
- absent incident evidence leaves control quality unresolved.
159
- - **Source basis:**
160
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1991 annual letter** — *implements*: decentralize operations
161
- centralize capital allocation.
162
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2004 annual letter** — *qualifies*: decentralized companies
163
- need protected whistleblower channel.
164
- - **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; LOW ch.15 (two-level control structure).
165
-
166
- <a id="m07"></a>
167
-
168
- ### M07 — Test Substantive Board Independence and Power
169
-
170
- - **Decision question:** Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management
171
- when owner interests require it?
172
- - **Guidance:** Judge independence by competence, economic independence, information,
173
- deliberation, and willingness to oppose or replace management—not formal labels.
174
- - **Use when:** Board oversight, CEO power, deals, compensation, conflicts, or
175
- controlling ownership affects the thesis.
176
- - **Analytical actions:** Map skills, ties, information, and voting power; inspect
177
- dissent mechanisms; review behavior during conflicts or underperformance.
178
- - **Output:** A board-power assessment separating formal status from demonstrated
179
- capability and action.
180
- - **Limits:** Ownership and private sessions do not create judgment; unobservable
181
- conflict behavior leaves independence unresolved.
182
- - **Source basis:**
183
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *supports*: business savvy is
184
- indispensable for corporate directors.
185
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2019 annual letter** — *implements*: boards should hear
186
- informed opposition to acquisitions.
187
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §I.B; BH2014; FL2025.
188
-
189
- <a id="m08"></a>
190
-
191
- ### M08 — Assess Role-Specific Succession and Control Continuity
192
-
193
- - **Decision question:** Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles
194
- transfer without losing capability or fair treatment?
195
- - **Guidance:** Assess succession by role, horizon, emergency readiness, delegated
196
- experience, and control-transfer mechanics; a name is not proof.
197
- - **Use when:** Key-person dependence, controlling ownership, aging leadership, estate
198
- plans, voting arrangements, or role concentration.
199
- - **Analytical actions:** Separate role successions; inspect emergency and long-term
200
- plans and staged responsibility; map voting, estate, and sale mechanics.
201
- - **Output:** A role-specific continuity map with successor evidence, control
202
- transitions, triggers, and unresolved dependencies.
203
- - **Limits:** Private plans may remain undisclosed and legal or tax mechanics can
204
- change; names or assurances alone leave readiness unresolved.
205
- - **Source basis:**
206
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: succession role separation.
207
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *implements*: document emergency
208
- successors with strengths and weaknesses.
209
- - **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; FL2025.
210
-
211
- <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
212
- See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
213
- -->
@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
1
+ # Management, Governance, and Culture · Part 2 of 2 (M05-M08)
2
+
3
+ Cards M05, M06, M07, M08 of this module. Part 1 (`03-management-governance-M01-M04.md`) holds the module title and card index.
4
+ Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
5
+
6
+ ### M05 — Test Culture and the Institutional Imperative Through Behavior
7
+
8
+ - **Decision question:** Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract,
9
+ reward, normalize, and reproduce?
10
+ - **Guidance:** Treat culture as a system expressed through hiring, incentives,
11
+ forecasts, costs, imitation, and reactions to mistakes—not declared values.
12
+ - **Use when:** A thesis depends on durable organizational behavior, acquisition
13
+ appetite, cost discipline, forecasting, or decentralization.
14
+ - **Analytical actions:** Identify repeated behaviors; trace reinforcing mechanisms;
15
+ search for actions contradicting the declared culture.
16
+ - **Output:** A culture-mechanism map with reinforcing behaviors, contradictions, and
17
+ change indicators.
18
+ - **Limits:** Culture is neither automatic nor irreversible; leave durability unresolved
19
+ when evidence is anecdotal or leader dependent.
20
+ - **Source basis:**
21
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *defines*: institutional imperative.
22
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: long term growth forecasts
23
+ can corrupt managerial behavior.
24
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BH2002; BH2014.
25
+
26
+ <a id="m06"></a>
27
+
28
+ ### M06 — Assess Decentralization, Controls, and Bad-News Flow
29
+
30
+ - **Decision question:** Does authority sit with capable operators while audit,
31
+ compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective?
32
+ - **Guidance:** Evaluate autonomy and control together; decentralization requires
33
+ capable managers, protected escalation, and explicit retained controls.
34
+ - **Use when:** Decentralized groups, holding companies, autonomous subsidiaries, or
35
+ multilayer information flow.
36
+ - **Analytical actions:** Map delegated and retained authorities; test audit,
37
+ compliance, whistleblower, and bad-news channels; review detection and correction of
38
+ errors.
39
+ - **Output:** An authority-and-control matrix with escalation paths, failure examples,
40
+ and unresolved dependencies.
41
+ - **Limits:** Centralization can also fail and visible mistakes may be an accepted cost;
42
+ absent incident evidence leaves control quality unresolved.
43
+ - **Source basis:**
44
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1991 annual letter** — *implements*: decentralize operations
45
+ centralize capital allocation.
46
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2004 annual letter** — *qualifies*: decentralized companies
47
+ need protected whistleblower channel.
48
+ - **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; LOW ch.15 (two-level control structure).
49
+
50
+ <a id="m07"></a>
51
+
52
+ ### M07 — Test Substantive Board Independence and Power
53
+
54
+ - **Decision question:** Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management
55
+ when owner interests require it?
56
+ - **Guidance:** Judge independence by competence, economic independence, information,
57
+ deliberation, and willingness to oppose or replace management—not formal labels.
58
+ - **Use when:** Board oversight, CEO power, deals, compensation, conflicts, or
59
+ controlling ownership affects the thesis.
60
+ - **Analytical actions:** Map skills, ties, information, and voting power; inspect
61
+ dissent mechanisms; review behavior during conflicts or underperformance.
62
+ - **Output:** A board-power assessment separating formal status from demonstrated
63
+ capability and action.
64
+ - **Limits:** Ownership and private sessions do not create judgment; unobservable
65
+ conflict behavior leaves independence unresolved.
66
+ - **Source basis:**
67
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *supports*: business savvy is
68
+ indispensable for corporate directors.
69
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2019 annual letter** — *implements*: boards should hear
70
+ informed opposition to acquisitions.
71
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §I.B; BH2014; FL2025.
72
+
73
+ <a id="m08"></a>
74
+
75
+ ### M08 — Assess Role-Specific Succession and Control Continuity
76
+
77
+ - **Decision question:** Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles
78
+ transfer without losing capability or fair treatment?
79
+ - **Guidance:** Assess succession by role, horizon, emergency readiness, delegated
80
+ experience, and control-transfer mechanics; a name is not proof.
81
+ - **Use when:** Key-person dependence, controlling ownership, aging leadership, estate
82
+ plans, voting arrangements, or role concentration.
83
+ - **Analytical actions:** Separate role successions; inspect emergency and long-term
84
+ plans and staged responsibility; map voting, estate, and sale mechanics.
85
+ - **Output:** A role-specific continuity map with successor evidence, control
86
+ transitions, triggers, and unresolved dependencies.
87
+ - **Limits:** Private plans may remain undisclosed and legal or tax mechanics can
88
+ change; names or assurances alone leave readiness unresolved.
89
+ - **Source basis:**
90
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: succession role separation.
91
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *implements*: document emergency
92
+ successors with strengths and weaknesses.
93
+ - **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; FL2025.
94
+
95
+ <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
96
+ See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
97
+ -->
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
1
+ # Financial Reality and Owner Economics
2
+
3
+ Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
4
+ Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
5
+ return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
6
+
7
+ Read this file when reconciling filings, owner earnings, segments, capital returns, or
8
+ obligations. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole module by
9
+ default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
10
+ [source key](00-source-key.md).
11
+
12
+ ## Card Index
13
+
14
+ | Card | Decision question |
15
+ | --- | --- |
16
+ | [F01](#f01) | What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind the reported result? |
17
+ | [F02](#f02) | How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive position or unit volume? |
18
+ | [F03](#f03) | Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains trapped, or is actually distributable? |
19
+ | [F04](#f04) | What economics accrue through minority interests, segments, and holding structures despite reported presentation? |
20
+ | [F05](#f05) | What recurring earning power belongs to each distinct business across a representative period? |
21
+ | [F06](#f06) | What normalized unleveraged returns does the business earn on required tangible capital, and what has additional capital produced? |
22
+ | [F07](#f07) | What disclosed or implied claims could absorb cash materially beyond reported earnings or liabilities? |
23
+
24
+ ## Complete Cards
25
+
26
+ <a id="f01"></a>
27
+
28
+ ### F01 — Reconstruct Economic Substance from Accounting
29
+
30
+ - **Decision question:** What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind
31
+ the reported result?
32
+ - **Guidance:** Begin with audited figures and reconcile every adjustment back to them;
33
+ accounting rules are inputs, not permission to discard costs.
34
+ - **Use when:** Accounting form, rule changes, acquisition accounting, noncash charges,
35
+ consolidation, or management metrics may obscure economics.
36
+ - **Analytical actions:** Inventory policies and changes; reconcile totals to the
37
+ analytical view; explain the economic reason for every adjustment.
38
+ - **Output:** A reported-to-economic bridge with source, amount, rationale, and
39
+ unresolved items for each adjustment.
40
+ - **Limits:** Adjustments can introduce bias and false precision; unsupported
41
+ substitutions or an unreconciled bridge remain unresolved.
42
+ - **Source basis:**
43
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *supports*: accounting numbers begin not
44
+ end valuation.
45
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2001 annual letter** — *illustrates*: goodwill rule change
46
+ raises reported not economic earnings.
47
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; EWB §V.D; OM1996; BH2014.
48
+
49
+ <a id="f02"></a>
50
+
51
+ ### F02 — Estimate Owner Earnings After All Real Costs
52
+
53
+ - **Decision question:** How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive
54
+ position or unit volume?
55
+ - **Guidance:** Restore noncash charges only when they are not economic depletion and
56
+ subtract maintenance capital, required working capital, compensation, and recurring
57
+ costs; use supported ranges.
58
+ - **Use when:** Cash removability or distributable earning power matters to valuation,
59
+ reinvestment, or payout analysis.
60
+ - **Analytical actions:** Show every adjustment; estimate maintenance capital and
61
+ working capital across a representative period; sensitize judgmental components.
62
+ - **Output:** A reconciled owner-earnings range with assumptions, sensitivities, and
63
+ blocked components.
64
+ - **Limits:** Maintenance and growth overlap and depreciation or amortization may
65
+ misstate depletion; unbounded material needs leave the result unresolved.
66
+ - **Source basis:**
67
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
68
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: depreciation represents real
69
+ maintenance capital cost.
70
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.D; BH2002; BH2014; BH2023.
71
+
72
+ <a id="f03"></a>
73
+
74
+ ### F03 — Separate Maintenance, Growth, Restricted, and Distributable Capital
75
+
76
+ - **Decision question:** Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains
77
+ trapped, or is actually distributable?
78
+ - **Guidance:** Classify capital by economic function before treating cash flow as owner
79
+ value; required, catch-up, restricted, or low-return reinvestment is not freely
80
+ distributable.
81
+ - **Use when:** Capital-intensive, regulated, cyclical, rapidly growing, or structurally
82
+ restricted businesses.
83
+ - **Analytical actions:** Classify spending and working capital; reconcile restrictions
84
+ and reserves; test whether claimed growth spending only preserves economics.
85
+ - **Output:** A schedule of maintenance, growth, catch-up, restricted, and distributable
86
+ amounts or ranges.
87
+ - **Limits:** Categories overlap and management labels may be unreliable; unbounded
88
+ maintenance or restrictions leave distributability unresolved.
89
+ - **Source basis:**
90
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
91
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: rapid growth low return
92
+ capital hunger is worst business model.
93
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; OM1996; BH2023.
94
+
95
+ <a id="f04"></a>
@@ -1,98 +1,7 @@
1
- # Financial Reality and Owner Economics
1
+ # Financial Reality and Owner Economics · Part 2 of 2 (F04-F07)
2
2
 
3
- Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
4
- Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
5
- return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
6
-
7
- Read this file when reconciling filings, owner earnings, segments, capital returns, or
8
- obligations. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole module by
9
- default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
10
- [source key](00-source-key.md).
11
-
12
- ## Card Index
13
-
14
- | Card | Decision question |
15
- | --- | --- |
16
- | [F01](#f01) | What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind the reported result? |
17
- | [F02](#f02) | How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive position or unit volume? |
18
- | [F03](#f03) | Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains trapped, or is actually distributable? |
19
- | [F04](#f04) | What economics accrue through minority interests, segments, and holding structures despite reported presentation? |
20
- | [F05](#f05) | What recurring earning power belongs to each distinct business across a representative period? |
21
- | [F06](#f06) | What normalized unleveraged returns does the business earn on required tangible capital, and what has additional capital produced? |
22
- | [F07](#f07) | What disclosed or implied claims could absorb cash materially beyond reported earnings or liabilities? |
23
-
24
- ## Complete Cards
25
-
26
- <a id="f01"></a>
27
-
28
- ### F01 — Reconstruct Economic Substance from Accounting
29
-
30
- - **Decision question:** What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind
31
- the reported result?
32
- - **Guidance:** Begin with audited figures and reconcile every adjustment back to them;
33
- accounting rules are inputs, not permission to discard costs.
34
- - **Use when:** Accounting form, rule changes, acquisition accounting, noncash charges,
35
- consolidation, or management metrics may obscure economics.
36
- - **Analytical actions:** Inventory policies and changes; reconcile totals to the
37
- analytical view; explain the economic reason for every adjustment.
38
- - **Output:** A reported-to-economic bridge with source, amount, rationale, and
39
- unresolved items for each adjustment.
40
- - **Limits:** Adjustments can introduce bias and false precision; unsupported
41
- substitutions or an unreconciled bridge remain unresolved.
42
- - **Source basis:**
43
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *supports*: accounting numbers begin not
44
- end valuation.
45
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2001 annual letter** — *illustrates*: goodwill rule change
46
- raises reported not economic earnings.
47
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; EWB §V.D; OM1996; BH2014.
48
-
49
- <a id="f02"></a>
50
-
51
- ### F02 — Estimate Owner Earnings After All Real Costs
52
-
53
- - **Decision question:** How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive
54
- position or unit volume?
55
- - **Guidance:** Restore noncash charges only when they are not economic depletion and
56
- subtract maintenance capital, required working capital, compensation, and recurring
57
- costs; use supported ranges.
58
- - **Use when:** Cash removability or distributable earning power matters to valuation,
59
- reinvestment, or payout analysis.
60
- - **Analytical actions:** Show every adjustment; estimate maintenance capital and
61
- working capital across a representative period; sensitize judgmental components.
62
- - **Output:** A reconciled owner-earnings range with assumptions, sensitivities, and
63
- blocked components.
64
- - **Limits:** Maintenance and growth overlap and depreciation or amortization may
65
- misstate depletion; unbounded material needs leave the result unresolved.
66
- - **Source basis:**
67
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
68
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: depreciation represents real
69
- maintenance capital cost.
70
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.D; BH2002; BH2014; BH2023.
71
-
72
- <a id="f03"></a>
73
-
74
- ### F03 — Separate Maintenance, Growth, Restricted, and Distributable Capital
75
-
76
- - **Decision question:** Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains
77
- trapped, or is actually distributable?
78
- - **Guidance:** Classify capital by economic function before treating cash flow as owner
79
- value; required, catch-up, restricted, or low-return reinvestment is not freely
80
- distributable.
81
- - **Use when:** Capital-intensive, regulated, cyclical, rapidly growing, or structurally
82
- restricted businesses.
83
- - **Analytical actions:** Classify spending and working capital; reconcile restrictions
84
- and reserves; test whether claimed growth spending only preserves economics.
85
- - **Output:** A schedule of maintenance, growth, catch-up, restricted, and distributable
86
- amounts or ranges.
87
- - **Limits:** Categories overlap and management labels may be unreliable; unbounded
88
- maintenance or restrictions leave distributability unresolved.
89
- - **Source basis:**
90
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
91
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: rapid growth low return
92
- capital hunger is worst business model.
93
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; OM1996; BH2023.
94
-
95
- <a id="f04"></a>
3
+ Cards F04, F05, F06, F07 of this module. Part 1 (`04-financial-reality-F01-F03.md`) holds the module title and card index.
4
+ Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
96
5
 
97
6
  ### F04 — Look Through Partial Ownership, Segments, and Holding Structures
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7
 
@@ -92,75 +92,3 @@ Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md
92
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  - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; BH2002; BH2023.
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93
 
94
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  <a id="v04"></a>
95
-
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- ### V04 — Value Growth Only Through Incremental Capital Economics
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-
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- - **Decision question:** Does projected growth increase future owner cash after funding
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- its capital requirements?
100
- - **Guidance:** Credit growth only through supported changes in owner cash and
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- incremental returns; reduce expectations for capital hunger or return decay.
102
- - **Use when:** Growth contributes materially to valuation or thesis.
103
- - **Analytical actions:** Reconcile growth with incremental capital and owner cash;
104
- compare returns with opportunity cost; sensitize scale, runway, and funding.
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- - **Output:** A growth-value bridge separating revenue growth, required capital,
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- incremental return, and owner-cash contribution.
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- - **Limits:** Future returns are unobserved; unbounded funding or incremental returns
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- leave growth value unresolved.
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- - **Source basis:**
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- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: growth creates value only
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- above cost of incremental capital.
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- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
113
- through cash flow economics.
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- - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; EWB §III.C; CM50-2015; LOW ch.10 (cable-TV rejection
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- case).
116
-
117
- <a id="v05"></a>
118
-
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- ### V05 — Expose Assumptions, Sensitivities, and Missing Evidence
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-
121
- - **Decision question:** Which assumptions drive the range, how fragile are they, and
122
- which missing facts block a conclusion?
123
- - **Guidance:** Make operating, reinvestment, discounting, and terminal assumptions
124
- explicit; test plausible combinations and identify invalidating evidence.
125
- - **Use when:** Every material valuation, especially when forecast or model dependence
126
- is high.
127
- - **Analytical actions:** Rank drivers by impact and uncertainty; run supported scenario
128
- combinations; map each missing input to the blocked conclusion.
129
- - **Output:** A sensitivity and missing-evidence register tied to the value range and
130
- invalidation conditions.
131
- - **Limits:** Sensitivity cannot validate bad assumptions or assign unsupported
132
- probabilities; unsupported bounds require no value conclusion.
133
- - **Source basis:**
134
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1999 annual letter** — *implements*: estimate intrinsic value
135
- as a range.
136
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Precision Castparts
137
- overpayment from earnings overestimate.
138
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; BH2002; BH2014.
139
-
140
- <a id="v06"></a>
141
-
142
- ### V06 — Require a Margin of Safety Proportionate to Uncertainty
143
-
144
- - **Decision question:** Is the price-value gap adequate for uncertainty, resilience,
145
- financing, and downside shown by the evidence?
146
- - **Guidance:** Compare price with the conservative end of a supported range and require
147
- more room for greater uncertainty; a discount cannot cure fragility.
148
- - **Use when:** A defensible value range and downside analysis exist and price is in
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- scope.
150
- - **Analytical actions:** Quantify scenario gaps; tie required room to named
151
- uncertainty; test whether the discount survives adverse assumptions.
152
- - **Output:** A price-value table with scenario gaps, uncertainty drivers, and an
153
- adequate, inadequate, or unresolved analytical finding.
154
- - **Limits:** No universal discount applies; missing price or value leaves the result
155
- unresolved, and the finding is not trade authority.
156
- - **Source basis:**
157
- - **Warren Buffett’s 1984 essay “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville”** —
158
- *defines*: margin of safety.
159
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Precision Castparts
160
- overpayment from earnings overestimate.
161
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; BH2025; LOW ch.5 (franchise-value margin evolution); LOW
162
- ch.8 (Washington Post discount case).
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-
164
- <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
165
- See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
166
- -->
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
1
+ # Valuation and Price Discipline · Part 2 of 2 (V04-V06)
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+
3
+ Cards V04, V05, V06 of this module. Part 1 (`05-valuation-V01-V03.md`) holds the module title and card index.
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+ Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
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+
6
+ ### V04 — Value Growth Only Through Incremental Capital Economics
7
+
8
+ - **Decision question:** Does projected growth increase future owner cash after funding
9
+ its capital requirements?
10
+ - **Guidance:** Credit growth only through supported changes in owner cash and
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+ incremental returns; reduce expectations for capital hunger or return decay.
12
+ - **Use when:** Growth contributes materially to valuation or thesis.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** Reconcile growth with incremental capital and owner cash;
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+ compare returns with opportunity cost; sensitize scale, runway, and funding.
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+ - **Output:** A growth-value bridge separating revenue growth, required capital,
16
+ incremental return, and owner-cash contribution.
17
+ - **Limits:** Future returns are unobserved; unbounded funding or incremental returns
18
+ leave growth value unresolved.
19
+ - **Source basis:**
20
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: growth creates value only
21
+ above cost of incremental capital.
22
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
23
+ through cash flow economics.
24
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; EWB §III.C; CM50-2015; LOW ch.10 (cable-TV rejection
25
+ case).
26
+
27
+ <a id="v05"></a>
28
+
29
+ ### V05 — Expose Assumptions, Sensitivities, and Missing Evidence
30
+
31
+ - **Decision question:** Which assumptions drive the range, how fragile are they, and
32
+ which missing facts block a conclusion?
33
+ - **Guidance:** Make operating, reinvestment, discounting, and terminal assumptions
34
+ explicit; test plausible combinations and identify invalidating evidence.
35
+ - **Use when:** Every material valuation, especially when forecast or model dependence
36
+ is high.
37
+ - **Analytical actions:** Rank drivers by impact and uncertainty; run supported scenario
38
+ combinations; map each missing input to the blocked conclusion.
39
+ - **Output:** A sensitivity and missing-evidence register tied to the value range and
40
+ invalidation conditions.
41
+ - **Limits:** Sensitivity cannot validate bad assumptions or assign unsupported
42
+ probabilities; unsupported bounds require no value conclusion.
43
+ - **Source basis:**
44
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1999 annual letter** — *implements*: estimate intrinsic value
45
+ as a range.
46
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Precision Castparts
47
+ overpayment from earnings overestimate.
48
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; BH2002; BH2014.
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+
50
+ <a id="v06"></a>
51
+
52
+ ### V06 — Require a Margin of Safety Proportionate to Uncertainty
53
+
54
+ - **Decision question:** Is the price-value gap adequate for uncertainty, resilience,
55
+ financing, and downside shown by the evidence?
56
+ - **Guidance:** Compare price with the conservative end of a supported range and require
57
+ more room for greater uncertainty; a discount cannot cure fragility.
58
+ - **Use when:** A defensible value range and downside analysis exist and price is in
59
+ scope.
60
+ - **Analytical actions:** Quantify scenario gaps; tie required room to named
61
+ uncertainty; test whether the discount survives adverse assumptions.
62
+ - **Output:** A price-value table with scenario gaps, uncertainty drivers, and an
63
+ adequate, inadequate, or unresolved analytical finding.
64
+ - **Limits:** No universal discount applies; missing price or value leaves the result
65
+ unresolved, and the finding is not trade authority.
66
+ - **Source basis:**
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+ - **Warren Buffett’s 1984 essay “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville”** —
68
+ *defines*: margin of safety.
69
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Precision Castparts
70
+ overpayment from earnings overestimate.
71
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.D; BH2025; LOW ch.5 (franchise-value margin evolution); LOW
72
+ ch.8 (Washington Post discount case).
73
+
74
+ <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
75
+ See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
76
+ -->
@@ -121,118 +121,3 @@ Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md
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121
  - **Corroboration:** EWB §III.C; OM1996; BH2014; LOW ch.15 (subsidiary retention test).
122
122
 
123
123
  <a id="c05"></a>
124
-
125
- ### C05 — Return Surplus Capital When No Better Use Exists
126
-
127
- - **Decision question:** After protected reserves and productive uses, is capital
128
- genuinely surplus?
129
- - **Guidance:** Treat payout as the consequence of no better supported deployment, not a
130
- fixed preference; distinguish distribution from central redeployment.
131
- - **Use when:** Mature or capital-light operations generate cash beyond maintenance,
132
- growth, obligations, and resilience needs.
133
- - **Analytical actions:** Reconcile distributable cash after C02; compare C03
134
- alternatives; show tax, control, and owner-treatment effects of payout channels.
135
- - **Output:** A surplus-capital ledger with amounts blocked, deployable, distributable,
136
- or unresolved.
137
- - **Limits:** Legal, tax, contractual, and balance-sheet limits may block payout; an
138
- incomplete reserve or opportunity set means no surplus finding.
139
- - **Source basis:**
140
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1984 annual letter** — *implements*: Berkshire dividend policy
141
- uses value creation threshold.
142
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: redeploy cash from high
143
- return low reinvestment businesses.
144
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §III.C; BH2014; LOW ch.15 (distribution threshold case).
145
-
146
- <a id="c06"></a>
147
-
148
- ### C06 — Repurchase Only Below Value with Surplus Capacity and Material Effect
149
-
150
- - **Decision question:** Will repurchase materially improve continuing-owner value
151
- without weakening resilience or unfairly transferring value?
152
- - **Guidance:** Require conservative undervaluation, protected liquidity, fair
153
- disclosure, superior alternatives, and meaningful per-share effect.
154
- - **Use when:** An issuer proposes, conducts, or defends a material repurchase.
155
- - **Analytical actions:** Compare price with value; recheck capacity and alternatives;
156
- quantify shares retired, financing, per-share effect, and transfers.
157
- - **Output:** A repurchase worksheet with value, capacity, materiality, fairness,
158
- alternatives, and unresolved assumptions.
159
- - **Limits:** Value is uncertain and above-value purchases can transfer wealth; the
160
- worksheet authorizes no repurchase or trade.
161
- - **Source basis:**
162
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1980 annual letter** — *implements*: repurchase below intrinsic
163
- value.
164
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1999 annual letter** — *qualifies*: above value repurchases
165
- transfer wealth from continuing owners.
166
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §IV.B; BH2014; BH2022; LOW ch.10 (Washington Post repurchases).
167
-
168
- <a id="c07"></a>
169
-
170
- ### C07 — Issue Shares Only Value for Value
171
-
172
- - **Decision question:** Does issuing equity give owners at least as much durable value
173
- and resilience as the interest surrendered?
174
- - **Guidance:** Analyze issuance as a partial sale of owner assets and compare value
175
- surrendered with assets, claims extinguished, or resilience received.
176
- - **Use when:** Stock-financed acquisitions, compensation issuance, conversion,
177
- recapitalization, or balance-sheet repair.
178
- - **Analytical actions:** Estimate value and ownership surrendered; value consideration
179
- and resilience received; reconcile to continuing-owner value rather than optics.
180
- - **Output:** An issuance exchange bridge with ownership transfer, proceeds, financing
181
- effects, and per-share result.
182
- - **Limits:** Issuance can rationally improve resilience and both sides are uncertain;
183
- missing estimates leave the exchange unresolved.
184
- - **Source basis:**
185
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *implements*: share issuance value for
186
- value rule.
187
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *illustrates*: stock financed bank deal
188
- destroyed value.
189
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §IV.A; OM1996; LOW ch.12 (stock-deal dilution cases).
190
-
191
- <a id="c08"></a>
192
-
193
- ### C08 — Evaluate Acquisitions by Quality, Price, Financing, Alternatives, and Postmortems
194
-
195
- - **Decision question:** Does the complete exchange improve continuing-owner value under
196
- defensible stand-alone and downside cases?
197
- - **Guidance:** Evaluate target economics, management, price, financing, dilution,
198
- alternatives, and realized outcomes together, not EPS or size.
199
- - **Use when:** A proposed or completed acquisition, merger, or major asset purchase.
200
- - **Analytical actions:** Underwrite stand-alone quality and owner cash; build a value
201
- exchange and financing bridge; preserve assumptions for post-closing comparison.
202
- - **Output:** An acquisition sheet with stand-alone value, consideration, financing,
203
- alternatives, downside, per-share effect, and postmortem fields.
204
- - **Limits:** Good businesses can be overpaid for and synergies may matter; unbounded
205
- economics or consideration leaves the assessment unresolved.
206
- - **Source basis:**
207
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1985 annual letter** — *implements*: Berkshire whole business
208
- acquisition criteria.
209
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2017 annual letter** — *implements*: evaluate acquisitions on
210
- all equity basis.
211
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §IV.D; OM1996; BH2014.
212
-
213
- <a id="c09"></a>
214
-
215
- ### C09 — Counter Acquisition-Process Bias
216
-
217
- - **Decision question:** Has commitment manufactured confidence through selective
218
- information, incentives, or optimistic assumptions?
219
- - **Guidance:** Require an informed opposing case challenging seller information,
220
- forecasts, turnarounds, synergies, adviser incentives, and deal hunger.
221
- - **Use when:** A material transaction with committed leadership, seller-controlled
222
- information, or synergy and turnaround dependence.
223
- - **Analytical actions:** Build the stand-alone downside before synergies; map
224
- incentives and information; run a premortem and preserve assumptions.
225
- - **Output:** An independent deal-challenge memo listing contested assumptions,
226
- adverse-selection risks, opposing evidence, and unresolved conditions.
227
- - **Limits:** Seller advantage does not imply fraud, deals do not universally fail, and
228
- broad acquisition priors cannot determine a specific case.
229
- - **Source basis:**
230
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *supports*: most acquisitions damage
231
- buyers and seller projections mislead.
232
- - **Berkshire Hathaway 2017 annual letter** — *supports*: deal hunger recruits biased
233
- forecasts and synergies.
234
- - **Corroboration:** EWB §IV.A; EWB §IV.D; BH2014; LOW ch.12 (acquisition ego cases).
235
-
236
- <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
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- See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
238
- -->