@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/SKILL.md

@@ -17,17 +17,12 @@ into investment actions.
 4. Read only the reference modules containing those cards, or print single routed cards
    with `show --id`.
 5. Apply each card’s question, actions, output, and limits.
-6. Return supported, challenged, or unresolved findings using the output contract.
+6. Return supported, challenged, or unresolved findings using the output contract
+   ([workflows](references/09-workflows.md)).
 
-Use the bundled deterministic router when the host gives this role a shell **and** this skill's directory is reachable. Where either is missing — a role-split host that grants no shell, or an install without `scripts/` — skip the router and open the `references/` file for the chosen module directly, using the mapping in *Choose the Workflow* below. The router only decides which file to read; it holds no analysis of its own, so nothing is lost by reading the file.
-From the skill directory, run:
-
-```bash
-python3 scripts/framework.py route --intent financial-analysis --topic insurance
-python3 scripts/framework.py route --intent memo-review --topic acquisition
-python3 scripts/framework.py show --id C08
-python3 scripts/framework.py validate
-```
+The upstream deterministic router needs a shell, which this host's root role does not have: skip it
+and open the `references/` files named below (see [11-deterministic-router](references/11-deterministic-router.md)
+for what it would have done). It only decides which file to read; it holds no analysis of its own.
 
 ## Choose the Workflow
 
@@ -50,89 +45,37 @@ Before writing, count the final card set and make the reported count match the l
 IDs exactly. When replacing a routed card, state the substitution and its evidence
 trigger.
 
-| Module | Load when material evidence concerns | Cards | Reference |
+| Module | Load when material evidence concerns | Cards | Reference files (under `references/`) |
 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
-| Decision posture | competence, ownership, inversion, price, alternatives, concentration, active skill, or speculation | `D01`–`D09` | [Decision posture](references/01-decision-posture.md) |
-| Business economics | business model, moat, capital intensity, reinvestment, or structural change | `B01`–`B07` | [Business economics](references/02-business-economics.md) |
-| Management | conduct, operating execution, incentives, governance, controls, or succession | `M01`–`M08` | [Management and governance](references/03-management-governance.md) |
-| Financial reality | filings, owner cash, normalization, segments, capital returns, or obligations | `F01`–`F07` | [Financial reality](references/04-financial-reality.md) |
-| Valuation | value, method, normalized base, growth, sensitivity, or price discipline | `V01`–`V06` | [Valuation](references/05-valuation.md) |
-| Capital allocation | reserves, retention, payout, repurchase, issuance, or acquisitions | `C01`–`C09` | [Capital allocation](references/06-capital-allocation.md) |
-| Risk | permanent harm, forced action, leverage, contingent claims, inflation, exit, or monitoring | `R01`–`R07` | [Risk and monitoring](references/07-risk-monitoring.md) |
-| Specialized overlay | insurance, banking, consumer, infrastructure, technology, commodities, or special instruments | `S01`–`S12` | [Specialized overlays](references/08-specialized-overlays.md) |
+| Decision posture | competence, ownership, inversion, price, alternatives, concentration, active skill, or speculation | `D01`–`D09` | `01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md`、`01-decision-posture-D05-D09.md` |
+| Business economics | business model, moat, capital intensity, reinvestment, or structural change | `B01`–`B07` | `02-business-economics-B01-B03.md`、`02-business-economics-B04-B07.md` |
+| Management | conduct, operating execution, incentives, governance, controls, or succession | `M01`–`M08` | `03-management-governance-M01-M04.md`、`03-management-governance-M05-M08.md` |
+| Financial reality | filings, owner cash, normalization, segments, capital returns, or obligations | `F01`–`F07` | `04-financial-reality-F01-F03.md`、`04-financial-reality-F04-F07.md` |
+| Valuation | value, method, normalized base, growth, sensitivity, or price discipline | `V01`–`V06` | `05-valuation-V01-V03.md`、`05-valuation-V04-V06.md` |
+| Capital allocation | reserves, retention, payout, repurchase, issuance, or acquisitions | `C01`–`C09` | `06-capital-allocation-C01-C04.md`、`06-capital-allocation-C05-C09.md` |
+| Risk | permanent harm, forced action, leverage, contingent claims, inflation, exit, or monitoring | `R01`–`R07` | `07-risk-monitoring-R01-R03.md`、`07-risk-monitoring-R04-R07.md` |
+| Specialized overlay | insurance, banking, consumer, infrastructure, technology, commodities, or special instruments | `S01`–`S12` | `08-specialized-overlays-S01-S03.md`、`08-specialized-overlays-S04-S06.md`、`08-specialized-overlays-S07-S09.md`、`08-specialized-overlays-S10-S12.md` |
 
 Add a specialized overlay only when the supplied evidence triggers it.
 An industry label does not load every overlay.
 
-## Run Financial Analysis
-
-Require exact filings and periods, policies and notes, segment schedules, cash-flow and
-capital-expenditure data, and material financing and obligation disclosures.
-Treat market price as a separate input only when valuation is in scope.
-
-1. Apply `F01` and `F05` to inventory the package and reconcile reported results into
-   comparable segments without discarding genuine costs.
-2. Apply `F02` to bridge reported earnings to a range of owner earnings.
-   Add `F03` when maintenance, growth, restricted, or distributable capital must be
-   separated. Show every maintenance-capital, working-capital, compensation, and
-   recurring-cost judgment.
-3. Apply `F06`, and `B06` when prospective reinvestment matters, to separate historical
-   returns from the future reinvestment runway.
-4. Add `F07`, `C02`, `R02`, and `R03` as needed to inventory obligations and stress
-   financing, liquidity, collateral, and nonlinear claims.
-5. Add `F04` for material partial ownership and only the triggered `S01`–`S11` overlay
-   for industry-specific accounting or risk.
-
-Return a package inventory, reported-to-analytical bridge, normalized segment base,
-owner-earnings range, capital-return calculations, obligation ledger, assumptions,
-sensitivities, and blocked calculations.
-
-## Review an Investment Memo
-
-Require the complete memo and appendices, cited primary sources and models, decision
-question, horizon, business and management claims, valuation bridge, alternatives,
-risks, and invalidation conditions.
-
-1. Apply `D01` and `D03` to test estimability, separate facts, calculations, and
-   inference, and seek disconfirming evidence.
-   Add `D02` when ownership framing is material.
-2. Apply `B02` to test a claimed moat as a causal mechanism.
-   Add `B01` and only the relevant `B03`–`B07` cards when the memo’s claims require
-   them.
-3. Add only material `M01`–`M08` and `C01`–`C09` cards; use `C09` when a transaction is
-   central.
-4. Apply `V01`, `V05`, and `V06` to reconstruct value and expose sensitivities.
-   Add `V03` when the normalized base is material and `V04` when projected growth
-   contributes materially to value; use `D04` when price action is being treated as
-   business evidence.
-5. Apply `R01` and `R07` to trace owner harm and invalidation.
-   Add `R02` or `R03` only for financing or contingent paths actually present.
-
-Return one row per material claim: claimed consequence, evidence and source quality,
-applicable cards, supported/challenged/unresolved disposition, counterevidence or
-alternate mechanism, and evidence still needed.
-
-## Evaluate a Thesis
-
-Require explicit thesis components and horizon, primary evidence for the claimed
-business and management mechanisms, valuation inputs, financing and risk evidence,
-market price when price versus value is asked, and failure conditions.
-
-1. Apply `D02`, `D03`, and `R07` to rewrite the thesis as testable components while
-   preserving the author’s meaning and invalidation conditions.
-2. Apply `B01`, `B02`, `B06`, and `B07` as relevant to test business mechanisms,
-   incremental-return economics, and structural change.
-3. Add only the `M01`–`M08` and `C01`–`C09` cards needed by stated management or
-   allocation dependencies.
-4. Apply `V01`, `V03`, `V04`, `V05`, and `V06` as relevant to reconstruct value from
-   supplied evidence and keep quality, value, and price as separate judgments.
-5. Add `R01`, `R02`, `R03`, and a triggered `S01`–`S12` overlay to trace owner-harm,
-   financing, contingent, and specialized risks.
-
-Return a component map, evidence and counterevidence table, mechanism tests, valuation
-assumptions and sensitivities, owner-harm paths, invalidation indicators, missing
-evidence, and a separate disposition for each component.
-Do not aggregate component dispositions into an investment recommendation.
+## Load These Files
+
+Card definitions, workflows, and the output contract live in `references/`: the modules are
+listed in the table above, [`09-workflows.md`](references/09-workflows.md) holds the three card
+sequences with their required inputs and the output contract, and [`10-method.md`](references/10-method.md)
+the decomposition method. Open each with `read` **whole, with no line window** — a slice of a part must never be reported as the whole of it. Resolve each name against this skill's base directory.
+Parts are sized to arrive complete in one `read`; if a receipt shows
+`[... tool result middle pruned ...]`, re-read it with `offset` before concluding a card is
+absent, and never reconstruct a card from its ID or from a file you did not open.
+
+Loading this file is not reading the framework: the cards, the workflow steps, and the output
+contract exist only in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not,
+and never report a card or a step you have not read in this session.
+
+## Source and Method
+
+The framework is not affiliated with or endorsed by Warren Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway.
 
 ## Preserve Evidence Boundaries
 
@@ -153,40 +96,6 @@ Do not aggregate component dispositions into an investment recommendation.
 - When a prerequisite is absent, name it, mark the affected branch unresolved, and stop
   that branch.
 
-## Use This Output Contract
-
-Every response must contain:
-
-1. **Question and scope:** task intent, horizon, entity, and exclusions.
-2. **Evidence receipt:** supplied primary evidence, periods, missing inputs, and source
-   limitations.
-3. **Card load:** five to 12 IDs and why each was selected.
-4. **Analytical work:** sourced bridges, calculations, mechanism tests, and
-   sensitivities.
-5. **Findings:** supported, challenged, or unresolved, one decision question at a time.
-6. **Counterevidence and alternatives:** strongest contrary account and competing
-   mechanism.
-7. **Limits and blocked branches:** missing evidence and uncertainty that affect the
-   result.
-8. **Monitoring and invalidation:** observations that would strengthen, weaken, revise,
-   or retire each material finding.
-
-End with an analytical summary, not a buy, sell, hold, entry-price, position-size, or
-trade instruction.
-
-## Source and Method
-
-The 65 cards are an editorial synthesis of published Buffett and Berkshire writings.
-Source material was decomposed into claims, definitions, tactics, examples, and
-references; recurring decision questions were inventoried; overlaps were reconciled by
-analytical consequence; and the result was organized into eight modules and three task
-workflows. The cards provide representative, not exhaustive, coverage of the source
-material. Each card includes one to three readable source notes, abbreviated
-corroboration citations reconciled against the wider published record and resolved in
-the [source key](references/00-source-key.md), and its own preserved limits.
-The framework is not affiliated with or endorsed by Warren Buffett or Berkshire
-Hathaway.
-
 <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
 See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
 -->

package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{01-decision-posture.md → 01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md}

@@ -121,122 +121,3 @@ Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md
 - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.C; OM1996; BH2022.
 
 <a id="d05"></a>
-
-### D05 — Use Opportunity Cost Across Action and Inaction
-
-- **Decision question:** Which feasible alternative—the current asset, cash, another
-  asset, or waiting—has the best supported owner outcome after tax, risk, and friction?
-- **Guidance:** Compare action and inaction on a common owner-level basis and treat
-  waiting as an alternative with optionality and opportunity cost.
-- **Use when:** Allocation comparisons or a proposal that omits the best feasible
-  alternative.
-- **Analytical actions:** Define alternatives and horizon; compare owner cash, risk,
-  tax, friction, liquidity, and scale; state assumptions driving the ranking.
-- **Output:** An opportunity-cost table with supported, challenged, or unresolved
-  comparisons.
-- **Limits:** Alternatives may be incommensurable or poorly evidenced; the comparison
-  does not authorize reallocation.
-- **Source basis:**
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1987 annual letter** — *implements*: select by after tax
-    mathematical expectation.
-  - **Warren Buffett’s 2015 50th-anniversary essay** — *qualifies*: consider inaction
-    before selling a prosperous business.
-- **Corroboration:** BPL1963; CM50-2015; BH2014.
-
-<a id="d06"></a>
-
-### D06 — Pair Patient Standards with Decisive Action
-
-- **Decision question:** Are standards being lowered to create activity, or is a
-  supported opportunity being missed because of pressure or hesitation?
-- **Guidance:** Precommit analytical and resilience requirements, wait without relaxing
-  them, and classify a case as analytically ready only when evidence, price, and
-  downside align.
-- **Use when:** Activity pressure, fear or enthusiasm, prolonged inactivity, or a
-  material price dislocation.
-- **Analytical actions:** Record precommitted conditions; test the case against them;
-  explain a ready, not-ready, or unresolved result.
-- **Output:** An analytical-readiness checklist and reasoned no-action, unresolved, or
-  criteria-satisfied finding.
-- **Limits:** Patience is not proof of discipline and contrarian action is not
-  automatically correct; the card does not execute an action.
-- **Source basis:**
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2024 annual letter** — *supports*: wait liquidly and act on
-    compelling opportunities.
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *qualifies*: persistent uncertainty
-    should not paralyze long term investment.
-- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; BH2022.
-
-<a id="d07"></a>
-
-### D07 — Assess Whether Concentration Fits Capability and Portfolio Survival
-
-- **Decision question:** Is concentration supported by understanding, distinct
-  exposures, downside tolerance, liquidity, and survival of a major error?
-- **Guidance:** Evaluate concentration only where conviction is evidence-based and
-  survival does not depend on the thesis being right.
-- **Use when:** A concentrated exposure, correlated portfolio, or claim that conviction
-  alone justifies concentration.
-- **Analytical actions:** Map competence and downside; aggregate common exposures and
-  forced-action paths; identify a major-error survival case.
-- **Output:** A concentration-fit assessment with capability, correlation, liquidity,
-  and survival findings, but no position size.
-- **Limits:** Self-assessed competence may be false; no numeric sizing rule is supplied.
-- **Source basis:**
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1984 annual letter** — *qualifies*: concentration requires
-    exceptional financial strength.
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1993 annual letter** — *implements*: match diversification to
-    investor knowledge.
-- **Corroboration:** BPL1963; OM1996; LOW ch.5 (American Express concentration case).
-
-<a id="d08"></a>
-
-### D08 — Judge Active Skill After Friction, Capacity, and Precommitment
-
-- **Decision question:** Was apparent skill identifiable prospectively, repeatable after
-  costs, and usable at the capital scale under review?
-- **Guidance:** Compare with a suitable low-friction alternative and reject
-  hindsight-selected success unless process, persistence, downside behavior, incentives,
-  and capacity support a prospective claim.
-- **Use when:** Manager selection, strategy evaluation, performance attribution, or
-  extrapolation from a small capital base.
-- **Analytical actions:** Reconstruct after-cost results; examine prospective selection
-  evidence and downside periods; test capacity and incentive effects.
-- **Output:** A skill dossier separating gross result, friction, exposure, capacity, and
-  prospective identifiability.
-- **Limits:** Benchmark, factor, regime, survivorship, and access choices can leave the
-  conclusion unresolved.
-- **Source basis:**
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2016 annual letter** — *qualifies*: skilled managers exist but
-    are rarely identifiable.
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2016 annual letter** — *supports*: asset growth turns
-    investment success into underperformance.
-- **Corroboration:** EWB §III.A; BPL1969; BH2022.
-
-<a id="d09"></a>
-
-### D09 — Detect Reflexive Speculation and Promotional Supply
-
-- **Decision question:** Is expected value grounded in productive cash generation or in
-  leverage, promotion, serial supply, and resale to later buyers?
-- **Guidance:** Treat fee-driven distribution, serial issuance, effortless-gain
-  narratives, and exit-before-others logic as warning mechanisms that require
-  independently supported business value.
-- **Use when:** New-issue booms, promotional markets, nonproductive assets, rapid
-  issuance, or a thesis dominated by resale.
-- **Analytical actions:** Trace cash generation and who funds whom; map issuance,
-  leverage, incentives, and supply; separate productive return from resale.
-- **Output:** A speculation-mechanism map identifying productive support, reflexive
-  dependencies, beneficiaries, and unresolved economics.
-- **Limits:** The warning neither times reversal nor implies that every high valuation,
-  intermediary, or issuance is fraudulent.
-- **Source basis:**
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1990 annual letter** — *supports*: distribution revenue can
-    overpower security merit.
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: bubble markets enable
-    investor extraction business models.
-- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.G; BPL1965; BH2023.
-
-<!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
-See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
--->

package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/01-decision-posture-D05-D09.md

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+# Decision Posture and Opportunity Cost · Part 2 of 2 (D05-D09)
+
+Cards D05, D06, D07, D08, D09 of this module. Part 1 (`01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md`) holds the module title and card index.
+Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
+
+### D05 — Use Opportunity Cost Across Action and Inaction
+
+- **Decision question:** Which feasible alternative—the current asset, cash, another
+  asset, or waiting—has the best supported owner outcome after tax, risk, and friction?
+- **Guidance:** Compare action and inaction on a common owner-level basis and treat
+  waiting as an alternative with optionality and opportunity cost.
+- **Use when:** Allocation comparisons or a proposal that omits the best feasible
+  alternative.
+- **Analytical actions:** Define alternatives and horizon; compare owner cash, risk,
+  tax, friction, liquidity, and scale; state assumptions driving the ranking.
+- **Output:** An opportunity-cost table with supported, challenged, or unresolved
+  comparisons.
+- **Limits:** Alternatives may be incommensurable or poorly evidenced; the comparison
+  does not authorize reallocation.
+- **Source basis:**
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1987 annual letter** — *implements*: select by after tax
+    mathematical expectation.
+  - **Warren Buffett’s 2015 50th-anniversary essay** — *qualifies*: consider inaction
+    before selling a prosperous business.
+- **Corroboration:** BPL1963; CM50-2015; BH2014.
+
+<a id="d06"></a>
+
+### D06 — Pair Patient Standards with Decisive Action
+
+- **Decision question:** Are standards being lowered to create activity, or is a
+  supported opportunity being missed because of pressure or hesitation?
+- **Guidance:** Precommit analytical and resilience requirements, wait without relaxing
+  them, and classify a case as analytically ready only when evidence, price, and
+  downside align.
+- **Use when:** Activity pressure, fear or enthusiasm, prolonged inactivity, or a
+  material price dislocation.
+- **Analytical actions:** Record precommitted conditions; test the case against them;
+  explain a ready, not-ready, or unresolved result.
+- **Output:** An analytical-readiness checklist and reasoned no-action, unresolved, or
+  criteria-satisfied finding.
+- **Limits:** Patience is not proof of discipline and contrarian action is not
+  automatically correct; the card does not execute an action.
+- **Source basis:**
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2024 annual letter** — *supports*: wait liquidly and act on
+    compelling opportunities.
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *qualifies*: persistent uncertainty
+    should not paralyze long term investment.
+- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; BH2022.
+
+<a id="d07"></a>
+
+### D07 — Assess Whether Concentration Fits Capability and Portfolio Survival
+
+- **Decision question:** Is concentration supported by understanding, distinct
+  exposures, downside tolerance, liquidity, and survival of a major error?
+- **Guidance:** Evaluate concentration only where conviction is evidence-based and
+  survival does not depend on the thesis being right.
+- **Use when:** A concentrated exposure, correlated portfolio, or claim that conviction
+  alone justifies concentration.
+- **Analytical actions:** Map competence and downside; aggregate common exposures and
+  forced-action paths; identify a major-error survival case.
+- **Output:** A concentration-fit assessment with capability, correlation, liquidity,
+  and survival findings, but no position size.
+- **Limits:** Self-assessed competence may be false; no numeric sizing rule is supplied.
+- **Source basis:**
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1984 annual letter** — *qualifies*: concentration requires
+    exceptional financial strength.
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1993 annual letter** — *implements*: match diversification to
+    investor knowledge.
+- **Corroboration:** BPL1963; OM1996; LOW ch.5 (American Express concentration case).
+
+<a id="d08"></a>
+
+### D08 — Judge Active Skill After Friction, Capacity, and Precommitment
+
+- **Decision question:** Was apparent skill identifiable prospectively, repeatable after
+  costs, and usable at the capital scale under review?
+- **Guidance:** Compare with a suitable low-friction alternative and reject
+  hindsight-selected success unless process, persistence, downside behavior, incentives,
+  and capacity support a prospective claim.
+- **Use when:** Manager selection, strategy evaluation, performance attribution, or
+  extrapolation from a small capital base.
+- **Analytical actions:** Reconstruct after-cost results; examine prospective selection
+  evidence and downside periods; test capacity and incentive effects.
+- **Output:** A skill dossier separating gross result, friction, exposure, capacity, and
+  prospective identifiability.
+- **Limits:** Benchmark, factor, regime, survivorship, and access choices can leave the
+  conclusion unresolved.
+- **Source basis:**
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2016 annual letter** — *qualifies*: skilled managers exist but
+    are rarely identifiable.
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2016 annual letter** — *supports*: asset growth turns
+    investment success into underperformance.
+- **Corroboration:** EWB §III.A; BPL1969; BH2022.
+
+<a id="d09"></a>
+
+### D09 — Detect Reflexive Speculation and Promotional Supply
+
+- **Decision question:** Is expected value grounded in productive cash generation or in
+  leverage, promotion, serial supply, and resale to later buyers?
+- **Guidance:** Treat fee-driven distribution, serial issuance, effortless-gain
+  narratives, and exit-before-others logic as warning mechanisms that require
+  independently supported business value.
+- **Use when:** New-issue booms, promotional markets, nonproductive assets, rapid
+  issuance, or a thesis dominated by resale.
+- **Analytical actions:** Trace cash generation and who funds whom; map issuance,
+  leverage, incentives, and supply; separate productive return from resale.
+- **Output:** A speculation-mechanism map identifying productive support, reflexive
+  dependencies, beneficiaries, and unresolved economics.
+- **Limits:** The warning neither times reversal nor implies that every high valuation,
+  intermediary, or issuance is fraudulent.
+- **Source basis:**
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1990 annual letter** — *supports*: distribution revenue can
+    overpower security merit.
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: bubble markets enable
+    investor extraction business models.
+- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.G; BPL1965; BH2023.
+
+<!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
+See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
+-->

package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/02-business-economics-B01-B03.md

@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+# Business Economics and Competitive Position
+
+Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
+Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
+return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
+
+Read this file when mapping the business, testing moat mechanisms, reinvestment, or
+structural change. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole
+module by default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
+[source key](00-source-key.md).
+
+## Card Index
+
+| Card | Decision question |
+| --- | --- |
+| [B01](#b01) | How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash, required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash? |
+| [B02](#b02) | What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or eroding? |
+| [B03](#b03) | Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing support durable economics? |
+| [B04](#b04) | Does a non-brand mechanism durably alter delivered cost, customer switching, competitor entry, or network utility? |
+| [B05](#b05) | Will price-taking, excess capacity, and required reinvestment consume apparent earnings or growth? |
+| [B06](#b06) | Can the business deploy material additional capital at attractive normalized returns for long enough to affect owner value? |
+| [B07](#b07) | Is weakness temporary and bounded, or caused by persistent economics that additional effort and capital are unlikely to repair? |
+
+## Complete Cards
+
+<a id="b01"></a>
+
+### B01 — Map How the Business Earns and Converts a Dollar
+
+- **Decision question:** How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash,
+  required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash?
+- **Guidance:** Build a causal model from transaction and unit economics through working
+  capital, maintenance, growth funding, and owner cash, then reconcile it to reported
+  totals.
+- **Use when:** Initial analysis, a changed business model, unexplained cash conversion,
+  or a forecast with unclear operating mechanics.
+- **Analytical actions:** Map revenue drivers, unit economics, and costs; trace required
+  and optional reinvestment; reconcile to reported cash and segments.
+- **Output:** A one-page business-model map and dollar-conversion bridge with explicit
+  gaps.
+- **Limits:** A coherent map does not prove durability or value; unresolved segment,
+  unit, or reinvestment data leave the map unresolved.
+- **Source basis:**
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
+    through cash flow economics.
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1977 annual letter** — *illustrates*: See’s capital light
+    earnings growth.
+- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; EWB §V.D; OM1996.
+
+<a id="b02"></a>
+
+### B02 — Identify a Causal Moat and Track Its Direction
+
+- **Decision question:** What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or
+  eroding?
+- **Guidance:** Name the mechanism, behavior it changes, and economics it protects;
+  track direction with business-specific evidence rather than labels.
+- **Use when:** A thesis claims durable quality, excess returns, franchise value, or
+  competitive advantage.
+- **Analytical actions:** State the mechanism and protected benefit; describe the
+  strongest plausible attack; track strengthening and erosion indicators.
+- **Output:** A causal moat map with mechanism, protected economics, attack path,
+  indicators, and unresolved links.
+- **Limits:** Reputation, market share, and historical returns do not alone prove a
+  moat.
+- **Source basis:**
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: widening the moat.
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *illustrates*: GEICO direct distribution
+    created structural cost advantage.
+- **Corroboration:** BH1981; BH2007; BH2014; LOW ch.3 (GEICO cost-advantage discovery).
+
+<a id="b03"></a>
+
+### B03 — Test Pricing Power, Brand, and Distribution Strength
+
+- **Decision question:** Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing
+  support durable economics?
+- **Guidance:** Treat brand and distribution as mechanisms only when price realization,
+  retention, volume, utility, and channel evidence show a durable behavioral effect.
+- **Use when:** Brand, loyalty, distribution, or pricing power is central to the thesis.
+- **Analytical actions:** Decompose price, volume, mix, retention, and elasticity;
+  examine channels and utility; test inflation, scarcity, and promotion as alternatives.
+- **Output:** A pricing-and-distribution scorecard with mechanism evidence,
+  alternatives, and direction.
+- **Limits:** Price increases can reflect inflation or scarcity; awareness and past
+  margins are insufficient.
+- **Source basis:**
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1983 annual letter** — *supports*: consumer franchise and low
+    cost position create goodwill.
+  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1993 annual letter** — *supports*: brands products and
+    distribution create protective moats.
+- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; BH2014; BH2023; LOW ch.9 (See’s brand pricing case).
+
+<a id="b04"></a>

package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{02-business-economics.md → 02-business-economics-B04-B07.md}

@@ -1,97 +1,7 @@
-# Business Economics and Competitive Position
+# Business Economics and Competitive Position · Part 2 of 2 (B04-B07)
 
-Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
-Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
-return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
-
-Read this file when mapping the business, testing moat mechanisms, reinvestment, or
-structural change. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole
-module by default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
-[source key](00-source-key.md).
-
-## Card Index
-
-| Card | Decision question |
-| --- | --- |
-| [B01](#b01) | How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash, required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash? |
-| [B02](#b02) | What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or eroding? |
-| [B03](#b03) | Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing support durable economics? |
-| [B04](#b04) | Does a non-brand mechanism durably alter delivered cost, customer switching, competitor entry, or network utility? |
-| [B05](#b05) | Will price-taking, excess capacity, and required reinvestment consume apparent earnings or growth? |
-| [B06](#b06) | Can the business deploy material additional capital at attractive normalized returns for long enough to affect owner value? |
-| [B07](#b07) | Is weakness temporary and bounded, or caused by persistent economics that additional effort and capital are unlikely to repair? |
-
-## Complete Cards
-
-<a id="b01"></a>
-
-### B01 — Map How the Business Earns and Converts a Dollar
-
-- **Decision question:** How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash,
-  required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash?
-- **Guidance:** Build a causal model from transaction and unit economics through working
-  capital, maintenance, growth funding, and owner cash, then reconcile it to reported
-  totals.
-- **Use when:** Initial analysis, a changed business model, unexplained cash conversion,
-  or a forecast with unclear operating mechanics.
-- **Analytical actions:** Map revenue drivers, unit economics, and costs; trace required
-  and optional reinvestment; reconcile to reported cash and segments.
-- **Output:** A one-page business-model map and dollar-conversion bridge with explicit
-  gaps.
-- **Limits:** A coherent map does not prove durability or value; unresolved segment,
-  unit, or reinvestment data leave the map unresolved.
-- **Source basis:**
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
-    through cash flow economics.
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1977 annual letter** — *illustrates*: See’s capital light
-    earnings growth.
-- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; EWB §V.D; OM1996.
-
-<a id="b02"></a>
-
-### B02 — Identify a Causal Moat and Track Its Direction
-
-- **Decision question:** What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or
-  eroding?
-- **Guidance:** Name the mechanism, behavior it changes, and economics it protects;
-  track direction with business-specific evidence rather than labels.
-- **Use when:** A thesis claims durable quality, excess returns, franchise value, or
-  competitive advantage.
-- **Analytical actions:** State the mechanism and protected benefit; describe the
-  strongest plausible attack; track strengthening and erosion indicators.
-- **Output:** A causal moat map with mechanism, protected economics, attack path,
-  indicators, and unresolved links.
-- **Limits:** Reputation, market share, and historical returns do not alone prove a
-  moat.
-- **Source basis:**
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: widening the moat.
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *illustrates*: GEICO direct distribution
-    created structural cost advantage.
-- **Corroboration:** BH1981; BH2007; BH2014; LOW ch.3 (GEICO cost-advantage discovery).
-
-<a id="b03"></a>
-
-### B03 — Test Pricing Power, Brand, and Distribution Strength
-
-- **Decision question:** Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing
-  support durable economics?
-- **Guidance:** Treat brand and distribution as mechanisms only when price realization,
-  retention, volume, utility, and channel evidence show a durable behavioral effect.
-- **Use when:** Brand, loyalty, distribution, or pricing power is central to the thesis.
-- **Analytical actions:** Decompose price, volume, mix, retention, and elasticity;
-  examine channels and utility; test inflation, scarcity, and promotion as alternatives.
-- **Output:** A pricing-and-distribution scorecard with mechanism evidence,
-  alternatives, and direction.
-- **Limits:** Price increases can reflect inflation or scarcity; awareness and past
-  margins are insufficient.
-- **Source basis:**
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1983 annual letter** — *supports*: consumer franchise and low
-    cost position create goodwill.
-  - **Berkshire Hathaway 1993 annual letter** — *supports*: brands products and
-    distribution create protective moats.
-- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; BH2014; BH2023; LOW ch.9 (See’s brand pricing case).
-
-<a id="b04"></a>
+Cards B04, B05, B06, B07 of this module. Part 1 (`02-business-economics-B01-B03.md`) holds the module title and card index.
+Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
 
 ### B04 — Test Cost, Scale, Switching, Network, and Efficient-Scale Advantages