@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/11-data-sources.md

@@ -0,0 +1,196 @@
+# Data Sources
+
+Part 2 of 3 for `earnings-call-analysis` — Data Sources; Input Formats; Output; Analysis Guidelines; Usage Examples; Integration Notes; Standard Signal Output
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Data Sources
+
+Reference the following sources when analyzing earnings calls:
+
+### Primary Sources
+- **SEC EDGAR 8-K Filings**: Official transcripts filed within 4 days of call
+  - Search: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
+  - Look for: Item 2.02 (Results of Operations and Financial Condition)
+
+- **Company Investor Relations**: Live webcasts and archived recordings
+  - Typically at: [company-website.com]/investors/earnings
+  - May include slides and supplemental materials
+
+### Transcript Services
+- **Seeking Alpha**: Free transcript archive with searchable database
+  - Format: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/[TICKER]/earnings/transcripts
+
+- **AlphaSense**: Premium transcript service with AI search (paid)
+- **Bloomberg Terminal**: Real-time transcripts and historical archive (paid)
+- **FactSet**: Transcript archive with analytics (paid)
+
+### Supplementary Information
+- **Earnings Press Release**: Published before call, contains prepared financial results
+- **Investor Presentation Slides**: Visual aids referenced during call
+- **10-Q/10-K Filings**: Detailed financials for context
+- **Prior Quarter Calls**: For comparison and trend analysis
+
+## Input Formats
+
+Accept earnings call data in the following formats:
+
+### Format 1: Transcript Text
+```
+Paste the full transcript text from the earnings call, including:
+- Corporate Participants section
+- Prepared Remarks
+- Q&A Session
+- Forward-Looking Statements disclaimer (if present)
+```
+
+### Format 2: Transcript URL
+```
+Provide URL to transcript:
+- Seeking Alpha URL
+- Company IR page URL
+- SEC EDGAR filing link
+```
+
+### Format 3: Call Details for Manual Analysis
+```
+Company: [Name]
+Ticker: [SYMBOL]
+Quarter: Q[1-4] [YEAR]
+Call Date: [MM/DD/YYYY]
+
+Key Questions to Focus On:
+- [Specific aspects to analyze]
+```
+
+## Output
+
+Provide comprehensive earnings call analysis report with:
+
+### 1. Call Metadata
+- Company name and ticker
+- Quarter and fiscal year
+- Call date and time
+- Participating executives
+- Transcript source
+
+### 2. Executive Summary (1-2 paragraphs)
+- Overall assessment and sentiment
+- Key takeaways (3-5 bullet points)
+- Investment implication (Buy/Hold/Sell)
+
+### 3. Management Tone Rating
+- Confidence Level: High / Medium / Low
+- Transparency: Excellent / Good / Fair / Poor
+- Notable tone characteristics
+- Supporting evidence (quotes)
+
+### 4. Key Themes (Ranked by Importance)
+For each theme:
+- Description
+- Management's stance
+- Supporting quotes
+- Investment relevance
+
+### 5. Guidance Analysis
+- Detailed guidance breakdown
+- Changes from prior guidance
+- Comparison to consensus estimates
+- Credibility assessment
+
+### 6. Q&A Insights
+- Top 5 analyst questions
+- Quality of management responses
+- New information revealed
+- Questions avoided or deflected
+
+### 7. Red Flags & Concerns
+- Identified warning signs (if any)
+- Severity assessment
+- Historical context
+- Recommended monitoring items
+
+### 8. Quarter-over-Quarter Changes
+- Messaging shifts
+- Tone differences
+- Strategic pivots
+- Performance vs. prior commitments
+
+### 9. Investment Recommendation
+- Overall sentiment: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
+- Confidence level: High / Medium / Low
+- Key investment drivers (bullish case)
+- Key risks (bearish case)
+- Suggested action with rationale
+- Time horizon
+
+### 10. Notable Quotes
+5-10 most significant quotes from management with context
+
+## Analysis Guidelines
+
+### Best Practices
+
+1. **Read the Entire Transcript**: Don't rely only on prepared remarks; Q&A often reveals more
+2. **Compare to Prior Calls**: Context is critical for identifying changes
+3. **Cross-Reference with Financials**: Verify claims against actual 10-Q/10-K data
+4. **Watch for Language Patterns**: Hedging, definitiveness, evasiveness
+5. **Note What's NOT Said**: Absence of previously discussed topics is meaningful
+6. **Consider the Audience**: Different messages for different analyst types
+
+### Common Pitfalls to Avoid
+
+1. **Over-Optimism Bias**: Management is inherently promotional
+2. **Recency Bias**: One quarter doesn't make a trend
+3. **Cherry-Picking**: Consider full context, not just favorable quotes
+4. **Ignoring Tone**: What's said matters, but HOW it's said matters more
+5. **Missing Red Flags**: Defensiveness and evasion are important signals
+
+### Analyst Question Interpretation
+
+- **If analysts ask about guidance**: They may expect a beat or miss
+- **If questions focus on one issue**: It's likely a consensus concern
+- **If analysts challenge management**: Credibility may be in question
+- **If questions are softball**: Either results are stellar or relationships are managed
+
+## Usage Examples
+
+### Example 1: Basic Transcript Analysis
+```
+User: /earnings-call-analysis AAPL
+
+[Paste transcript text or provide URL]
+
+Claude analyzes the transcript and provides comprehensive report with all sections
+```
+
+### Example 2: Focused Analysis
+```
+User: /earnings-call-analysis TSLA --focus "production guidance,margin outlook"
+
+[Provide transcript]
+
+Claude emphasizes analysis of specified topics while still covering full call
+```
+
+### Example 3: Comparative Analysis
+```
+User: /earnings-call-analysis NVDA --compare Q3-2024
+
+[Provide current quarter transcript]
+
+Claude compares with prior quarter (Q3 2024) to highlight changes and trends
+```
+
+## Integration Notes
+
+- Can be used standalone or in conjunction with /stock-eval
+- Output can be fed to /report-generator for HTML/PDF export
+- Particularly valuable around earnings season (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct)
+- Best used within 1-2 days of earnings release while market is digesting information
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-call-analysis/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+# Thesis Invalidation
+
+Part 3 of 3 for `earnings-call-analysis` — Thesis Invalidation
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- management lowers full-year guidance by >10% OR CEO/CFO departure announced within 30 days
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- major earnings beat >15% AND multi-year guidance raised significantly
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/SKILL.md

@@ -38,240 +38,17 @@ Data & Sources
 
 ---
 
-## Overview
+## Read the Parts
 
-The catalog already covers earnings *after* the fact: `earnings-call-analysis` reads the transcript, `financial-report-analyst` reads the 10-Q, `catalyst-calendar` puts the date on a list. None of them answers the question a holder actually has in the week before the print: **what does the market already expect, how has this stock treated good news before, and what am I going to do in each outcome — decided now, while I am calm?**
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. **whole, with no line window** — quoting a rule or a template out of a slice of one is how a
+file gets reported as read when it was only skimmed. The file names below are the only
+addressing this entry has.
 
-This skill is that pre-commitment. It produces four things no post-call skill can:
+- `references/10-overview.md` — Overview; 1. Inputs; 2. Framework
+- `references/11-phase-4-the-implied.md` — (continued) 2. Framework
+- `references/12-output-format.md` — 3. Output Format; Example; Notes; Thesis Invalidation
+- `references/13-standard-signal-output.md` — Standard Signal Output
 
-1. **The expectation stack** — published consensus, the buy-side "whisper" above it, and management's own prior guidance, so a "beat" can be judged against the number that actually matters.
-2. **The stock's own history with beats** — eight quarters of beat/miss against the next-day move, which is where "beat and drop" patterns live.
-3. **What the price already assumes** — the growth and margin the current quote requires, so the reader knows whether a beat is *news* or merely *confirmation*.
-4. **A three-scenario grid with a rule attached to each cell** — so the reaction on print day is execution, not decision.
-
-**What it is not.** It does not predict the print. Nobody knows the number; the skill's value is in knowing what *others* expect and what *you* will do. It is also not an options strategy tool — it reads the options market for its implied move and hands strategy selection to `options-analysis`.
-
-Pairs with `earnings-call-analysis` (run it *after*, on the transcript), `options-analysis` (strategy for the implied move), `catalyst-calendar` (the date and the events around it), `thesis-tracker` (the print is a scheduled next-check — the KPIs here should be the KPIs there), and `position-ladder` (the position rules in the scenario grid should respect its share-count ceiling).
-
----
-
-## 1. Inputs
-
-| Input | Required | Default if unstated |
-|-------|----------|---------------------|
-| Ticker | ✅ | — |
-| Confirmed earnings date and time (BMO / AMC) | ✅ | fetch from company IR; if only a calendar estimate exists, say so and mark Confidence MEDIUM at best |
-| Current consensus: revenue, EPS, next-quarter / FY guidance | ✅ | fetch or ask; state the as-of date |
-| Management's prior guidance range | ✅ | from the last press release / call |
-| Current price, ATM straddle price or IV for the expiry spanning the print | ✅ | fetch or ask |
-| Last 8 quarters: reported vs. consensus, next-day move | recommended | fetch or ask; fewer than 6 quarters → note the thin sample |
-| Prior-quarter transcript or `earnings-call-analysis` output | optional | improves the KPI list and the "what management promised" line |
-| Existing `thesis-tracker` file or `stock-eval` output | optional | supplies the KPIs and thresholds that should decide the reaction |
-| Position: shares, cost basis, ceiling from `position-ladder` | optional | needed for the position rules; otherwise rules are stated generically |
-
-**Whisper numbers are estimates, and are labeled as such.** The "whisper" is the buy-side expectation sitting above (rarely below) published consensus — the number the stock actually trades against. It is inferred from sell-side note revisions, the direction of estimate changes in the last 30 days, options skew, and sentiment sources; it is never a hard figure. Report it as a range with a source, or write `whisper: not estimable` rather than inventing one.
-
----
-
-## 2. Framework
-
-### Phase 1 — The expectation stack
-
-Build the table of numbers the print will be judged against, in the order the market judges them:
-
-| Layer | Revenue | EPS | Next-Q guide | FY guide | Source · as of |
-|-------|---------|-----|--------------|----------|----------------|
-| Management's prior guidance (range and midpoint) | | | | | |
-| Published consensus | | | | | |
-| Consensus 30 / 90 days ago (direction of revisions) | | | | | |
-| Whisper (estimate, range) | | | | | |
-| **Gap: whisper − consensus** | | | | | |
-
-Rules of thumb:
-- A **rising consensus** into the print raises the bar: a beat against a number that has already been marked up is a smaller beat than it looks.
-- **Whisper gap > ~2% of revenue or > ~5% of EPS** means a consensus-level beat is likely to be treated as a miss. Say so plainly.
-- The **guide** is the number that moves the stock for most growth companies. If prior guidance exists, the market is asking "raise, hold, or cut?" — not "beat or miss?".
-
-### Phase 2 — How this stock treats beats (8-quarter history)
-
-| Quarter | Rev vs. consensus | EPS vs. consensus | Guide vs. consensus | Next-day move | Move vs. implied |
-|---------|-------------------|-------------------|---------------------|---------------|------------------|
-| Q-1 | +x.x% | +x.x% | raised / held / cut | ±x.x% | above / within / below |
-| … | | | | | |
-
-Then summarize:
-- **Beat rate** (revenue and EPS separately) and the **average / median next-day move**, with the **largest gap-up and gap-down**.
-- **The "beat and drop" count** — quarters in which both lines beat and the stock fell. Three or more in eight is a pattern: this stock is graded on the guide or on a KPI, not on the headline.
-- **Realized vs. implied** — how often the actual move exceeded the options-implied move. This is the input for Phase 4.
-
-Fewer than six quarters (recent IPO, spin-off) — say the sample is too thin for a base rate and lean on Phases 3 and 5 instead.
-
-### Phase 3 — What is priced in
-
-Borrow the reverse-DCF logic from `stock-valuation` in a lighter form:
-
-1. Take the current price and a defensible forward multiple (the stock's own 3-year median, or the peer median from `competitor-analysis`).
-2. Back out the **forward revenue / EPS the multiple requires** over the next 12 months.
-3. Compare with consensus: is the price *above* what consensus supports (the market already assumes a beat-and-raise), *at* it, or *below* it (a plain beat is genuine news)?
-4. State the **implied growth rate** the price needs, in one line: *"At $X and 32× forward, the price needs ~Y% EPS growth; consensus is Z%."*
-
-Add the **positioning read** where data exists: short interest and days-to-cover (`short-interest`), recent insider and institutional flow (`insider-trading`, `institutional-ownership`), and the stock's move over the last 30 days relative to its sector. A stock up 20% into the print with rising estimates has already had its beat; a stock down 15% with a stable consensus has room for relief.
-
-### Phase 4 — The implied move, and whether it is fairly priced
-
-| Measure | Value | How |
-|---------|-------|-----|
-| Options-implied move (event only) | ±x.x% | ATM straddle price ÷ stock price for the **first expiry after the print**. If that expiry is more than one session past the print, strip the non-event days so the horizon matches the next-day realized move: event move² ≈ near-straddle move² − (normal daily move)² × extra sessions, where the normal daily move comes from a longer-dated expiry's IV (IV × √(1/252)). State the horizon used |
-| Realized average move (8 quarters) | ±x.x% | from Phase 2 |
-| Realized median move | ±x.x% | robust to one outlier quarter |
-| Ratio: implied ÷ realized median | x.x | > 1.2 the market is paying up for the event; < 0.8 it is complacent |
-
-Interpretation for a **stockholder** (not an options trader): the implied move is the market's estimate of the **size** of the reaction, in either direction — it says nothing about direction and is not a downside estimate. Model the miss-side downside separately in the scenario grid (the realized moves on past misses, the distance to the valuation floor from `stock-valuation`, the `bear-case` target). Then compare: if the *larger* of the implied move and the modelled miss-side downside exceeds the distance to the holder's stop or the bottom rung of the `position-ladder`, the position size is too large for the event — that is the finding, and it belongs in the grid's "miss" rule. Options strategy selection goes to `options-analysis`.
-
-### Phase 5 — The KPIs that will decide the reaction
-
-List 3–5 company-specific numbers the market will read past the headline for — segment growth (data-center, cloud, subscribers), gross margin, unit economics (ARPU, take rate, deliveries), backlog / RPO, free cash flow, and the **guidance range** itself. For each: the consensus or prior value, the threshold that would count as good or bad, and where it will appear (press release vs. call). Then name **the one number** that has driven the stock in the last four prints. If a `thesis-tracker` file exists, its KPIs and thresholds take precedence — the print is that file's scheduled check.
-
-### Phase 6 — The scenario grid
-
-Fill every cell before the print; leave nothing to be decided in the after-hours session.
-
-| Scenario | Probability | Trigger | Expected reaction | Position rule (decided now) |
-|----------|-------------|---------|-------------------|-----------------------------|
-| **Beat & raise** | — | Revenue and EPS ≥ whisper, guide midpoint above consensus | + implied move or more; fades if the stock ran into the print | Hold; add only if a `position-ladder` rung fills *and* the ceiling is not reached; never chase the gap |
-| **Beat & lower** | — | Headline beat, guide midpoint below consensus | Flat to − implied move; the most common "beat and drop" | Trim into any early strength if the guide cut touches the thesis's mechanism; otherwise hold and re-run `thesis-tracker --update` |
-| **Miss** | — | Revenue or EPS below consensus, or guide cut with no offsetting KPI | − implied move or more; larger if positioning was long | Respect the pre-set stop or the `thesis-tracker` exit trigger; do not average down inside the first two sessions |
-| **In line** (state if material) | — | All three within ±1% of consensus, guide held | Drift, then trades on the call's tone | No action; run `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript |
-
-Probabilities are the analyst's stated judgment, must sum to 100%, and must be justified by Phases 1–3 (a rising whisper lowers the "beat & raise" probability; a 15% drawdown into the print raises it). Where the user holds no position, the rules become entry rules: which scenario, at what price, would justify opening one — and which would not, regardless of price.
-
-### Phase 7 — What not to do
-
-State these every time; they are the errors this skill exists to prevent:
-
-- **Do not add size into the print on conviction.** The print is a coin with a known payout distribution (Phase 4) and an unknown outcome; conviction does not change the distribution. Size for the miss case.
-- **Do not hold undefined-risk short options through the event** (short straddles, strangles, naked puts). The implied move is an estimate; the realized move has exceeded it in a measurable share of quarters (Phase 2). `options-analysis` covers defined-risk alternatives.
-- **Do not react to the headline EPS before the guide and the KPI in Phase 5 are out.** Most post-print reversals happen between the press release and the end of the call.
-- **Do not treat a beat against a lowered bar as a beat.** Compare with the 90-day-ago consensus (Phase 1), not only with today's.
-- **Do not confuse the stock's reaction with the quality of the quarter.** A drop on a good quarter is positioning; a rise on a poor one is relief. Log which one it was — `thesis-tracker` needs that distinction.
-
-### Phase 8 — Earnings Setup Score (0–10)
-
-The headline number. It measures **asymmetry for a holder** — how much good news is already in the price versus how the stock has treated good news — not whether the print will be good.
-
-| Component | Weight | 10 looks like | 0 looks like |
-|-----------|--------|---------------|--------------|
-| Expectation bar (Phases 1, 3) | 35% | Consensus flat or falling into the print; price implies less growth than consensus; whisper gap ≈ 0 | Consensus marked up sharply; price needs a beat-and-raise; whisper well above consensus |
-| Beat history vs. reaction (Phase 2) | 25% | High beat rate *and* positive median move on beats (the stock rewards good news) | "Beat and drop" in ≥ 3 of 8 quarters |
-| Event pricing (Phase 4) | 20% | Implied move ≥ 1.2× realized median (downside is over-insured) | Implied move < 0.8× realized median (complacency) |
-| Positioning (Phase 3) | 10% | Stock down and de-rated into the print; short interest elevated; no crowding | Up > 15% in 30 days with estimates rising; crowded long |
-| Plan quality (Phases 5–6) | 10% | A specific KPI threshold and a rule in every cell | Generic KPIs; rules left to "see how it trades" |
-
-**A high score is not "buy before earnings."** It means the setup is asymmetric in a holder's favour: the bar is low, the stock rewards beats, the downside is insured by the options market. A low score means the opposite — good news is largely priced and the stock has a habit of falling on beats — which for a holder argues for *smaller* size into the print, not for a short. Read the direction of the business from `stock-eval`; read the odds of the *event* from here.
-
----
-
-## 3. Output Format
-
-1. **Data & Sources** header (above), including the confirmed date/time and the consensus as-of date
-2. **Setup in three lines** — the bar (consensus vs. whisper vs. prior guide), what the price assumes, and how this stock has treated beats
-3. **Expectation stack** table (Phase 1)
-4. **8-quarter history** table and its three summary lines (Phase 2)
-5. **What is priced in** — the implied-growth sentence and the positioning read (Phase 3)
-6. **Implied vs. realized move** table and the position-size finding (Phase 4)
-7. **KPIs to watch**, with the one number that decides the reaction (Phase 5)
-8. **Scenario grid** with probabilities and position rules (Phase 6)
-9. **What not to do** (Phase 7)
-10. **Thesis Invalidation** and the **Investment Signal block** (below), with the Earnings Setup Score
-11. **Hand-off line** — *"After the print: paste the release and transcript into `earnings-call-analysis`; then run `thesis-tracker --update`."*
-
----
-
-## Example
-
-```
-User: earnings-preview NVDA — reports Aug 27 after the close. I hold 40 shares at $118;
-      ladder ceiling is 60. Consensus and the last 8 quarters are pasted below. [pasted]
-
-The assistant opens with the Data & Sources header (IR page for the date, pasted
-consensus dated Aug 20, live straddle), then the setup in three lines: consensus has
-been revised up 6% in 90 days and the whisper sits ~3% above it, so a consensus-level
-beat will read as a miss; at the current price and a 3-year median forward multiple the
-stock needs ~35% forward EPS growth against a consensus of ~30%, so the price already
-assumes a beat-and-raise; the stock beat both lines in 8 of 8 quarters but fell the next
-day in 3 of them — every time the guide midpoint was below the whisper.
-
-The implied move is ±7.8% against a realized median of ±6.1% (ratio 1.28 — the event is
-over-insured). The KPI that decides the reaction is data-center revenue growth versus
-the ~40% whisper, then the next-quarter guide midpoint; gross margin is the tiebreaker.
-
-Scenario grid: beat & raise 45% (hold; no add — the ladder's next rung is $105, far
-below), beat & lower 35% (trim 10 shares into strength only if the guide cut names
-demand, not supply), miss 20% (the exit trigger is the thesis-tracker file's ≥40% DC
-growth KPI, not a price). What not to do: no adding into the print at 40 shares with a
-60 ceiling and an implied move that reaches $112 on the downside.
-
-Earnings Setup Score 4.6 / 10 — NEUTRAL: the bar is high and largely priced, but the
-stock has rewarded beats and the downside is over-insured. Signal block, then the
-hand-off to earnings-call-analysis and thesis-tracker --update.
-```
-
----
-
-## Notes
-
-- **Confirm the date from the company, not a calendar aggregator.** Estimated dates are wrong often enough to matter — an implied move measured on the wrong expiry is meaningless.
-- **Consensus is a moving target.** Restate the as-of date next to every consensus figure; a number from three weeks ago is not the bar the stock will trade against.
-- **Whisper is labeled an estimate every time it appears.** A range with a rationale beats a false-precision point.
-- **The score is about the event, not the company.** A great business can have a poor setup (crowded, fully priced) and a mediocre one a good setup (washed out, low bar). Say which is which; do not blend them.
-- **Position rules must respect `position-ladder`'s ceiling and `thesis-tracker`'s triggers** when those exist. This skill never raises a ceiling or overrides an exit trigger.
-- **After the print, close the loop.** `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript, then `thesis-tracker --update`, then record in its decision log which scenario occurred and whether the pre-set rule was followed. That log is what makes the next preview better.
-
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH (asymmetric setup for a holder) — the read breaks if:**
-- Consensus or the whisper is revised up by more than ~3% (EPS) in the final week — the bar has moved and Phases 1 and 3 must be redone
-- The stock rallies more than the implied move *before* the print (a pre-announcement, a peer's blowout, a sector re-rating) — the relief has been taken in advance
-- A peer reports first and reveals the KPI in Phase 5 is deteriorating industry-wide
-
-**If signal is BEARISH (good news fully priced, poor beat history) — the read breaks if:**
-- The stock sells off into the print by more than the implied move on no company news — the bar has been reset lower
-- Consensus is cut ahead of the print (the company or its peers guided down) — a beat against a lowered bar is not the same setup, and Phase 7's warning applies in reverse
-- Short interest rises sharply into the event — positioning has flipped and the reaction distribution with it
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] The print itself — this analysis expires at the release; run `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript and `thesis-tracker --update` on the numbers
-- [ ] Consensus, the guide, or the confirmed date changes
-- [ ] The stock moves more than half the implied move before the event
-- [ ] A direct peer reports
-- [ ] The options-implied move changes by more than 20% relative (repricing of the event)
-
-## Standard Signal Output
-
-This skill measures **the asymmetry of the earnings setup for a holder, not the direction of the business or the likely outcome of the print**, so state the mapping explicitly: `Signal: BULLISH` means the bar is low, the stock rewards beats, and the downside is over-insured — the setup favours holding through the event at the current size; `NEUTRAL` means the setup is balanced or mixed — hold at current size, no adding; `BEARISH` means good news is largely priced and the stock has a habit of falling on beats — for a holder this argues for a smaller position into the print, **not for a short**. `Action: BUY` here means "the setup supports holding, and adding only via a pre-planned `position-ladder` rung"; `Action: SELL` means "reduce size into the event", never "short the print." Read the direction of the stock from `stock-eval` or `bear-case`, not from this block.
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
-
-**Note:** The Score above is the Earnings Setup Score, mapped onto the standard scale for cross-skill comparability. It rates *how asymmetric the event is for a holder* — not how attractive the stock is and not the likelihood of a beat. Horizon is SHORT-TERM by construction: the analysis expires at the print. Confidence is capped at MEDIUM when the earnings date is unconfirmed, the whisper is not estimable, or fewer than six quarters of history exist.
-
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice. Earnings outcomes are unknowable in advance; probabilities and scenario rules are a pre-commitment framework under stated assumptions, not a forecast or a trade instruction.
+Loading this file is not reading the skill: the steps, templates, and thresholds exist only
+in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not, and never report a
+step or a template you have not read in this session.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/10-overview.md

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+# Overview
+
+Part 1 of 4 for `earnings-preview` — Overview; 1. Inputs; 2. Framework
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Overview
+
+The catalog already covers earnings *after* the fact: `earnings-call-analysis` reads the transcript, `financial-report-analyst` reads the 10-Q, `catalyst-calendar` puts the date on a list. None of them answers the question a holder actually has in the week before the print: **what does the market already expect, how has this stock treated good news before, and what am I going to do in each outcome — decided now, while I am calm?**
+
+This skill is that pre-commitment. It produces four things no post-call skill can:
+
+1. **The expectation stack** — published consensus, the buy-side "whisper" above it, and management's own prior guidance, so a "beat" can be judged against the number that actually matters.
+2. **The stock's own history with beats** — eight quarters of beat/miss against the next-day move, which is where "beat and drop" patterns live.
+3. **What the price already assumes** — the growth and margin the current quote requires, so the reader knows whether a beat is *news* or merely *confirmation*.
+4. **A three-scenario grid with a rule attached to each cell** — so the reaction on print day is execution, not decision.
+
+**What it is not.** It does not predict the print. Nobody knows the number; the skill's value is in knowing what *others* expect and what *you* will do. It is also not an options strategy tool — it reads the options market for its implied move and hands strategy selection to `options-analysis`.
+
+Pairs with `earnings-call-analysis` (run it *after*, on the transcript), `options-analysis` (strategy for the implied move), `catalyst-calendar` (the date and the events around it), `thesis-tracker` (the print is a scheduled next-check — the KPIs here should be the KPIs there), and `position-ladder` (the position rules in the scenario grid should respect its share-count ceiling).
+
+---
+
+## 1. Inputs
+
+| Input | Required | Default if unstated |
+|-------|----------|---------------------|
+| Ticker | ✅ | — |
+| Confirmed earnings date and time (BMO / AMC) | ✅ | fetch from company IR; if only a calendar estimate exists, say so and mark Confidence MEDIUM at best |
+| Current consensus: revenue, EPS, next-quarter / FY guidance | ✅ | fetch or ask; state the as-of date |
+| Management's prior guidance range | ✅ | from the last press release / call |
+| Current price, ATM straddle price or IV for the expiry spanning the print | ✅ | fetch or ask |
+| Last 8 quarters: reported vs. consensus, next-day move | recommended | fetch or ask; fewer than 6 quarters → note the thin sample |
+| Prior-quarter transcript or `earnings-call-analysis` output | optional | improves the KPI list and the "what management promised" line |
+| Existing `thesis-tracker` file or `stock-eval` output | optional | supplies the KPIs and thresholds that should decide the reaction |
+| Position: shares, cost basis, ceiling from `position-ladder` | optional | needed for the position rules; otherwise rules are stated generically |
+
+**Whisper numbers are estimates, and are labeled as such.** The "whisper" is the buy-side expectation sitting above (rarely below) published consensus — the number the stock actually trades against. It is inferred from sell-side note revisions, the direction of estimate changes in the last 30 days, options skew, and sentiment sources; it is never a hard figure. Report it as a range with a source, or write `whisper: not estimable` rather than inventing one.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Framework
+
+### Phase 1 — The expectation stack
+
+Build the table of numbers the print will be judged against, in the order the market judges them:
+
+| Layer | Revenue | EPS | Next-Q guide | FY guide | Source · as of |
+|-------|---------|-----|--------------|----------|----------------|
+| Management's prior guidance (range and midpoint) | | | | | |
+| Published consensus | | | | | |
+| Consensus 30 / 90 days ago (direction of revisions) | | | | | |
+| Whisper (estimate, range) | | | | | |
+| **Gap: whisper − consensus** | | | | | |
+
+Rules of thumb:
+- A **rising consensus** into the print raises the bar: a beat against a number that has already been marked up is a smaller beat than it looks.
+- **Whisper gap > ~2% of revenue or > ~5% of EPS** means a consensus-level beat is likely to be treated as a miss. Say so plainly.
+- The **guide** is the number that moves the stock for most growth companies. If prior guidance exists, the market is asking "raise, hold, or cut?" — not "beat or miss?".
+
+### Phase 2 — How this stock treats beats (8-quarter history)
+
+| Quarter | Rev vs. consensus | EPS vs. consensus | Guide vs. consensus | Next-day move | Move vs. implied |
+|---------|-------------------|-------------------|---------------------|---------------|------------------|
+| Q-1 | +x.x% | +x.x% | raised / held / cut | ±x.x% | above / within / below |
+| … | | | | | |
+
+Then summarize:
+- **Beat rate** (revenue and EPS separately) and the **average / median next-day move**, with the **largest gap-up and gap-down**.
+- **The "beat and drop" count** — quarters in which both lines beat and the stock fell. Three or more in eight is a pattern: this stock is graded on the guide or on a KPI, not on the headline.
+- **Realized vs. implied** — how often the actual move exceeded the options-implied move. This is the input for Phase 4.
+
+Fewer than six quarters (recent IPO, spin-off) — say the sample is too thin for a base rate and lean on Phases 3 and 5 instead.
+
+### Phase 3 — What is priced in
+
+Borrow the reverse-DCF logic from `stock-valuation` in a lighter form:
+
+1. Take the current price and a defensible forward multiple (the stock's own 3-year median, or the peer median from `competitor-analysis`).
+2. Back out the **forward revenue / EPS the multiple requires** over the next 12 months.
+3. Compare with consensus: is the price *above* what consensus supports (the market already assumes a beat-and-raise), *at* it, or *below* it (a plain beat is genuine news)?
+4. State the **implied growth rate** the price needs, in one line: *"At $X and 32× forward, the price needs ~Y% EPS growth; consensus is Z%."*
+
+Add the **positioning read** where data exists: short interest and days-to-cover (`short-interest`), recent insider and institutional flow (`insider-trading`, `institutional-ownership`), and the stock's move over the last 30 days relative to its sector. A stock up 20% into the print with rising estimates has already had its beat; a stock down 15% with a stable consensus has room for relief.
+
+
+This section is not finished here: `2. Framework` continues in `references/11-phase-4-the-implied.md`.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/references/11-phase-4-the-implied.md

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+# 2. Framework(continued)
+
+Part 2 of 4 for `earnings-preview` — 2. Framework
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+### Phase 4 — The implied move, and whether it is fairly priced
+
+| Measure | Value | How |
+|---------|-------|-----|
+| Options-implied move (event only) | ±x.x% | ATM straddle price ÷ stock price for the **first expiry after the print**. If that expiry is more than one session past the print, strip the non-event days so the horizon matches the next-day realized move: event move² ≈ near-straddle move² − (normal daily move)² × extra sessions, where the normal daily move comes from a longer-dated expiry's IV (IV × √(1/252)). State the horizon used |
+| Realized average move (8 quarters) | ±x.x% | from Phase 2 |
+| Realized median move | ±x.x% | robust to one outlier quarter |
+| Ratio: implied ÷ realized median | x.x | > 1.2 the market is paying up for the event; < 0.8 it is complacent |
+
+Interpretation for a **stockholder** (not an options trader): the implied move is the market's estimate of the **size** of the reaction, in either direction — it says nothing about direction and is not a downside estimate. Model the miss-side downside separately in the scenario grid (the realized moves on past misses, the distance to the valuation floor from `stock-valuation`, the `bear-case` target). Then compare: if the *larger* of the implied move and the modelled miss-side downside exceeds the distance to the holder's stop or the bottom rung of the `position-ladder`, the position size is too large for the event — that is the finding, and it belongs in the grid's "miss" rule. Options strategy selection goes to `options-analysis`.
+
+### Phase 5 — The KPIs that will decide the reaction
+
+List 3–5 company-specific numbers the market will read past the headline for — segment growth (data-center, cloud, subscribers), gross margin, unit economics (ARPU, take rate, deliveries), backlog / RPO, free cash flow, and the **guidance range** itself. For each: the consensus or prior value, the threshold that would count as good or bad, and where it will appear (press release vs. call). Then name **the one number** that has driven the stock in the last four prints. If a `thesis-tracker` file exists, its KPIs and thresholds take precedence — the print is that file's scheduled check.
+
+### Phase 6 — The scenario grid
+
+Fill every cell before the print; leave nothing to be decided in the after-hours session.
+
+| Scenario | Probability | Trigger | Expected reaction | Position rule (decided now) |
+|----------|-------------|---------|-------------------|-----------------------------|
+| **Beat & raise** | — | Revenue and EPS ≥ whisper, guide midpoint above consensus | + implied move or more; fades if the stock ran into the print | Hold; add only if a `position-ladder` rung fills *and* the ceiling is not reached; never chase the gap |
+| **Beat & lower** | — | Headline beat, guide midpoint below consensus | Flat to − implied move; the most common "beat and drop" | Trim into any early strength if the guide cut touches the thesis's mechanism; otherwise hold and re-run `thesis-tracker --update` |
+| **Miss** | — | Revenue or EPS below consensus, or guide cut with no offsetting KPI | − implied move or more; larger if positioning was long | Respect the pre-set stop or the `thesis-tracker` exit trigger; do not average down inside the first two sessions |
+| **In line** (state if material) | — | All three within ±1% of consensus, guide held | Drift, then trades on the call's tone | No action; run `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript |
+
+Probabilities are the analyst's stated judgment, must sum to 100%, and must be justified by Phases 1–3 (a rising whisper lowers the "beat & raise" probability; a 15% drawdown into the print raises it). Where the user holds no position, the rules become entry rules: which scenario, at what price, would justify opening one — and which would not, regardless of price.
+
+### Phase 7 — What not to do
+
+State these every time; they are the errors this skill exists to prevent:
+
+- **Do not add size into the print on conviction.** The print is a coin with a known payout distribution (Phase 4) and an unknown outcome; conviction does not change the distribution. Size for the miss case.
+- **Do not hold undefined-risk short options through the event** (short straddles, strangles, naked puts). The implied move is an estimate; the realized move has exceeded it in a measurable share of quarters (Phase 2). `options-analysis` covers defined-risk alternatives.
+- **Do not react to the headline EPS before the guide and the KPI in Phase 5 are out.** Most post-print reversals happen between the press release and the end of the call.
+- **Do not treat a beat against a lowered bar as a beat.** Compare with the 90-day-ago consensus (Phase 1), not only with today's.
+- **Do not confuse the stock's reaction with the quality of the quarter.** A drop on a good quarter is positioning; a rise on a poor one is relief. Log which one it was — `thesis-tracker` needs that distinction.
+
+### Phase 8 — Earnings Setup Score (0–10)
+
+The headline number. It measures **asymmetry for a holder** — how much good news is already in the price versus how the stock has treated good news — not whether the print will be good.
+
+| Component | Weight | 10 looks like | 0 looks like |
+|-----------|--------|---------------|--------------|
+| Expectation bar (Phases 1, 3) | 35% | Consensus flat or falling into the print; price implies less growth than consensus; whisper gap ≈ 0 | Consensus marked up sharply; price needs a beat-and-raise; whisper well above consensus |
+| Beat history vs. reaction (Phase 2) | 25% | High beat rate *and* positive median move on beats (the stock rewards good news) | "Beat and drop" in ≥ 3 of 8 quarters |
+| Event pricing (Phase 4) | 20% | Implied move ≥ 1.2× realized median (downside is over-insured) | Implied move < 0.8× realized median (complacency) |
+| Positioning (Phase 3) | 10% | Stock down and de-rated into the print; short interest elevated; no crowding | Up > 15% in 30 days with estimates rising; crowded long |
+| Plan quality (Phases 5–6) | 10% | A specific KPI threshold and a rule in every cell | Generic KPIs; rules left to "see how it trades" |
+
+**A high score is not "buy before earnings."** It means the setup is asymmetric in a holder's favour: the bar is low, the stock rewards beats, the downside is insured by the options market. A low score means the opposite — good news is largely priced and the stock has a habit of falling on beats — which for a holder argues for *smaller* size into the print, not for a short. Read the direction of the business from `stock-eval`; read the odds of the *event* from here.
+
+---
+
+