@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/11-pattern-recognition.md

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+# Analysis Framework(continued)
+
+Part 2 of 3 for `insider-trading` — Analysis Framework; Input Formats; Output
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+### 8. Pattern Recognition
+
+Identify meaningful patterns in trading activity:
+
+**Bullish Patterns**
+- Clustered buying by multiple insiders within 1-2 weeks
+- First-time purchases by long-tenured executives
+- Buying during period of stock weakness or negative sentiment
+- Insiders increasing position size significantly (>25%)
+- CEO making largest purchase of tenure
+
+**Bearish Patterns**
+- Clustered selling by multiple insiders
+- CEO or CFO selling large percentage of holdings
+- First-time sells by insiders who previously only bought
+- Selling despite stock decline (urgency to exit)
+- Executive departures followed by sales
+
+**Neutral Patterns**
+- Regular quarterly option exercises and sells
+- Small percentage sells for diversification (<5% of holdings)
+- Tax payment share forfeitures
+- Routine 10b5-1 plan executions
+- Gift transfers to family trusts
+
+### 9. Red Flags & Warning Signs
+
+Identify concerning patterns:
+
+**High-Severity Red Flags**
+- CEO or CFO selling >50% of holdings
+- Clustered selling before earnings miss or guidance cut
+- Trading during blackout window
+- Late Form 4 filing (>2 days) without explanation
+- Pattern of selling before negative news
+
+**Medium-Severity Red Flags**
+- Increasing rate of insider selling
+- Multiple executives selling simultaneously
+- Selling despite recent insider buying by others
+- Large sales shortly after option vesting
+- Board member resignations followed by sales
+
+**Context Matters**
+- Insider selling is common and often benign
+- Check for 10b5-1 plans (pre-arranged sales)
+- Consider personal circumstances (divorce, estate planning)
+- Look at historical patterns for that individual
+- Assess whether selling is proportional to holdings
+
+### 10. Data Sources & Research Tools
+
+Reference the following sources for insider trading data:
+
+**Primary Source - SEC EDGAR**
+- Form 4 filings: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=4&company=[TICKER]
+- Form 3 filings: Initial beneficial ownership
+- Form 5 filings: Annual statements
+- File within 2 business days of transaction (Form 4)
+
+**Aggregator Websites**
+- **OpenInsider.com**: Free, comprehensive database with filters
+  - Cluster analysis tools
+  - Screeners for significant transactions
+  - Historical data back 10+ years
+
+- **SEC Form 4 Tracker**: Real-time Form 4 monitoring
+- **Finviz Insider**: Basic insider data with visualizations
+- **GuruFocus Insider**: Premium insider analysis
+
+**Premium Tools**
+- **Bloomberg Terminal**: Comprehensive insider data and analytics
+- **FactSet**: Insider transaction database
+- **S&P Capital IQ**: Detailed ownership and transaction data
+
+**Key Data Points to Extract**
+- Insider name and title
+- Transaction date and filing date
+- Shares bought/sold
+- Price per share
+- Shares owned after transaction
+- Transaction code (P, S, M, etc.)
+- Form 4 footnotes (10b5-1 plan indicator)
+
+## Input Formats
+
+### Format 1: Ticker Symbol
+```
+User: /insider-trading AAPL
+
+Claude retrieves recent Form 4 data from SEC EDGAR and analyzes
+```
+
+### Format 2: Specific Time Period
+```
+User: /insider-trading TSLA --period 2024-Q4
+
+Claude focuses on Q4 2024 insider transactions
+```
+
+### Format 3: Custom Data Paste
+```
+User: /insider-trading --data
+
+[Paste Form 4 data table or CSV from OpenInsider/SEC]
+
+Claude analyzes provided data
+```
+
+## Output
+
+Provide comprehensive insider trading analysis report with:
+
+### 1. Executive Summary
+- **Overall Insider Sentiment**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
+- **Confidence Level**: High / Medium / Low
+- **Key Takeaways**: 3-5 most important findings
+- **Investment Signal**: Buy / Hold / Sell indication
+- **Time Period Analyzed**: [Date range]
+
+### 2. Transaction Summary Table
+```
+Period: Last 6 Months
+Total Transactions: [N]
+Total Buy Transactions: [N] ($[Amount])
+Total Sell Transactions: [N] ($[Amount])
+Net Insider Activity: $[Amount]
+Net Sentiment Score: [+0.XX or -0.XX]
+```
+
+### 3. Significant Transactions (Top 10)
+Detailed table with context for each major transaction
+
+### 4. Insider Category Breakdown
+Analysis by executive officers, board members, and major shareholders
+
+### 5. Ownership Trend Analysis
+Current ownership % and historical trend (4 quarters)
+
+### 6. Timing & Pattern Analysis
+- Stock price context during trading periods
+- Identified bullish or bearish patterns
+- Seasonal or cyclical factors
+
+### 7. Red Flags & Concerns
+- List any identified warning signs
+- Severity assessment
+- Recommended monitoring
+
+### 8. Comparison to Peers
+Brief comparison of insider sentiment vs. industry peers (if available)
+
+### 9. Historical Context
+- How current activity compares to historical baseline
+- Notable changes in behavior
+- Track record of insider signals
+
+### 10. Investment Implications
+- Overall assessment and confidence level
+- Key bullish factors from insider activity
+- Key bearish factors or concerns
+- Recommended action
+- Monitoring plan for future activity
+
+### 11. Data Sources Used
+- SEC EDGAR filings referenced
+- Date range of analysis
+- Number of Form 4 filings reviewed
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/insider-trading/references/12-interpretation-guidelines.md

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+# Interpretation Guidelines
+
+Part 3 of 3 for `insider-trading` — Interpretation Guidelines; Usage Examples; Integration Notes; Standard Signal Output; Thesis Invalidation
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Interpretation Guidelines
+
+### When Insider Buying is STRONGLY Bullish
+1. Multiple insiders buying in 1-2 week period
+2. CEO making unusually large purchase
+3. Buying after significant stock decline (>20%)
+4. Insiders buying with personal cash (not option exercises)
+5. First-time buyers or return to buying after long gap
+
+### When Insider Buying is MODERATELY Bullish
+1. Single insider making meaningful purchase
+2. Regular accumulation pattern
+3. Buying at all-time highs (conviction in further growth)
+4. Board member purchases
+
+### When Insider Selling is LESS Concerning
+1. 10b5-1 pre-arranged plan sales
+2. Small percentage of holdings (<5%)
+3. Regular quarterly pattern
+4. Diversification after large stock appreciation
+5. Tax payments or estate planning
+
+### When Insider Selling is CONCERNING
+1. Clustered selling by multiple executives
+2. CEO/CFO selling >25% of holdings
+3. Selling despite stock decline
+4. No 10b5-1 plan indicated
+5. Selling shortly before negative news
+
+### Signal Reliability Factors
+- **Sample size**: More insiders trading = stronger signal
+- **Magnitude**: Larger $ amounts = stronger signal
+- **Timing**: Unusual timing = stronger signal
+- **Context**: Contrarian trades (buying weakness) = stronger signal
+- **Track record**: Historically accurate insiders = stronger signal
+
+## Usage Examples
+
+### Example 1: Basic Analysis
+```
+User: /insider-trading NVDA
+
+Claude: Pulls the last 6 months of NVDA Form 4 filings and reports net
+open-market buys vs. sells, separates 10b5-1 plan sales from discretionary
+trades, flags clustered buying, and closes with the signal block.
+```
+
+### Example 2: Before Earnings
+```
+User: /insider-trading AAPL --period "before-earnings"
+
+Claude: Examines trading in the 30–60 days before the most recent earnings
+release and states whether anything beyond scheduled 10b5-1 sales occurred.
+```
+
+### Example 3: Red Flag Detection
+```
+User: /insider-trading ABC --focus red-flags
+
+Claude: Checks each red-flag pattern above (large % of holdings sold,
+clustered director exits, selling into a decline) and reports which fired,
+with the filing dates that support each.
+```
+
+## Integration Notes
+
+- Combine with /stock-eval for complete due diligence
+- Use /institutional-ownership for full insider + institutional picture
+- Feed analysis to /report-generator for visual charts of insider activity
+- Best used monthly or after significant insider filing activity
+- Particularly valuable when analyzing small-mid cap stocks (insiders have more edge)
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- 3+ insiders file Form 4 sells within a 30-day window OR CEO sells >5% of holdings
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- CEO/CFO initiate new purchases >$1M within 30 days
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+
+