@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/10-chart-pattern-analysis.md

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+# Chart Pattern Analysis
+
+Part 1 of 6 for `technical-analysis` — Chart Pattern Analysis; Technical Indicators; Price Levels; Market Context; Moving Average Chart Analysis; Trade Recommendation from MA Analysis
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Chart Pattern Analysis
+
+1. **Trend Identification**
+   - Primary trend (uptrend, downtrend, sideways)
+   - Trend strength and momentum
+   - Support and resistance levels
+   - Trendline analysis
+
+2. **Classic Chart Patterns**
+   - Head and shoulders, inverse H&S
+   - Double/triple tops and bottoms
+   - Cup and handle
+   - Triangles (ascending, descending, symmetrical)
+   - Flags and pennants
+   - Wedges and channels
+
+3. **Candlestick Patterns**
+   - Reversal patterns (doji, hammer, shooting star, engulfing)
+   - Continuation patterns
+   - Multi-candle formations
+
+## Technical Indicators
+
+1. **Trend Indicators**
+   - Moving averages (SMA, EMA: 20, 50, 200-day)
+   - Moving average crossovers
+   - MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
+   - ADX (Average Directional Index)
+
+2. **Momentum Indicators**
+   - RSI (Relative Strength Index)
+   - Stochastic oscillator
+   - Williams %R
+   - Rate of Change (ROC)
+
+3. **Volume Indicators**
+   - Volume trends and patterns
+   - On-Balance Volume (OBV)
+   - Volume-weighted average price (VWAP)
+   - Accumulation/Distribution line
+
+4. **Volatility Indicators**
+   - Bollinger Bands
+   - Average True Range (ATR)
+   - Volatility Index correlation
+
+## Price Levels
+
+- Key support and resistance zones
+- Fibonacci retracement levels
+- Pivot points
+- Round number psychology
+- Gap analysis
+
+## Market Context
+
+- Relative strength vs. market indices
+- Sector rotation analysis
+- Market breadth indicators
+- Correlation with related assets
+
+## Moving Average Chart Analysis
+
+When given a stock ticker, always generate an MA chart and trade recommendation table as part of the analysis. This is the first required output section.
+
+### MA Chart — Markdown Format
+
+Retrieve or estimate recent price data and compute the following MAs:
+
+| MA Period | Label | Trend Role |
+|-----------|-------|------------|
+| 30-day SMA | MA30 | Short-term trend |
+| 60-day SMA | MA60 | Intermediate trend |
+| 90-day SMA | MA90 | Medium-term trend |
+| 200-day SMA | MA200 | Long-term bull/bear line |
+| 365-day SMA | MA365 | Annual trend baseline |
+
+**Required output — MA Position Table:**
+
+```
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+  MOVING AVERAGE CHART — [TICKER]          [DATE]
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+  Current Price : $[PRICE]
+
+  MA       Value      vs Price    Signal
+  ──────   ────────   ─────────   ───────────────────
+  MA30     $[val]     ▲ +X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Short-term
+  MA60     $[val]     ▲ +X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Intermediate
+  MA90     $[val]     ▲ +X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Medium-term
+  MA200    $[val]     ▼ -X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Long-term bull/bear
+  MA365    $[val]     ▼ -X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Annual baseline
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+  MA Stack: [BULLISH / BEARISH / MIXED]
+  (Bullish = MA30 > MA60 > MA90 > MA200 > MA365)
+━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
+```
+
+**ASCII Trend Chart (last ~90 trading days):**
+
+```
+Price ($)
+[HIGH] ┤         ╭──╮    ╭──╮
+       ┤    ╭────╯  ╰────╯  ╰──╮       ← Price
+       ┤────╯                   ╰──╮
+       ┤·  ·  ·  ·  ·  ·  ·  ·  · ╰──  ← MA30
+       ┤══════════════════════════════   ← MA60
+       ┤- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -   ← MA90
+[LOW]  ┤══════════════════════════════   ← MA200
+       └─┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬──→
+       -90d  -70d  -50d  -30d  -10d  Today
+
+Legend: ──── Price  · · · MA30  ════ MA60/MA200  - - - MA90
+```
+
+### MA Crossover Signals
+
+Look for and report these high-significance crossover events. The standard data set is MA30 / MA60 / MA90 / MA200 / MA365 (the position table above); **MA50 is computed in addition**, solely because the classic 50/200 cross is what the market watches — state its value when you report it:
+
+| Crossover | Type | Significance |
+|-----------|------|--------------|
+| MA30 crosses above MA60 | Golden Cross (short) | Short-term bullish momentum |
+| MA30 crosses below MA60 | Death Cross (short) | Short-term bearish reversal |
+| MA50 crosses above MA200 | Golden Cross (classic) | Major long-term bullish signal |
+| MA50 crosses below MA200 | Death Cross (classic) | Major long-term bearish signal |
+| Price reclaims MA200 from below | Breakout | Shift from bear to bull regime |
+| Price loses MA200 support | Breakdown | Shift from bull to bear regime |
+
+State: **most recent crossover event** + how many days ago it occurred.
+
+---
+
+## Trade Recommendation from MA Analysis
+
+After computing MAs, output a clear, specific trade recommendation table:
+
+```
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              MA-BASED TRADE RECOMMENDATION — [TICKER]           ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║  Current Price : $[PRICE]                                       ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║  OPERATION      │ ENTRY PRICE   │ TARGET        │ STOP-LOSS     ║
+║  ───────────────┼───────────────┼───────────────┼────────────── ║
+║  [BUY/SELL/HOLD]│ $[price]      │ $[price]      │ $[price]      ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║  Rationale: [1-sentence MA-based reason]                        ║
+║  Basis:     MA[X] = $[val] acting as [support/resistance]       ║
+║  R/R Ratio: 1 : [X.X]                                          ║
+║  Horizon:   [SHORT / SWING / LONG-TERM]                         ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Examples of well-formed recommendations:**
+- "$185 is a good BUY entry for AAPL — price pulled back to MA90 ($183) which held as support, targeting MA resistance at $198 with stop below MA200 ($175). R/R 1:2.1."
+- "$310 is a good SELL/SHORT entry for TSLA — price rejected MA60 ($312) as resistance while MA30 crossed below MA60, targeting $275 with stop at $320. R/R 1:2.5."
+- "HOLD for MSFT — price is compressing between MA30 ($415) and MA60 ($420); wait for a confirmed break above MA60 before adding."
+
+**Decision rules:**
+- Price above all 5 MAs in bullish stack → BUY on MA30/MA60 dips
+- Price below MA200 but reclaiming MA90 → speculative BUY with tight stop
+- Price below all 5 MAs → SELL/AVOID; short only if MA30 < MA60 confirmed
+- Price between MAs with no clear stack → HOLD, wait for resolution
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/11-chart-visualization-support.md

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+# Chart Visualization Support
+
+Part 2 of 6 for `technical-analysis` — Chart Visualization Support
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Chart Visualization Support
+
+When `--chart` flag is used, include chart specifications and data tables:
+
+### 1. Price Chart with Moving Averages
+**Chart Type**: Candlestick chart with overlay lines
+**Data Table**:
+```
+Date        Open      High      Low       Close     Volume      SMA_30    SMA_60    SMA_200
+2024-01-01  [price]   [price]   [price]   [price]   [volume]    [price]   [price]   [price]
+2024-01-02  [price]   [price]   [price]   [price]   [volume]    [price]   [price]   [price]
+...
+[Last 90 trading days for detailed view]
+```
+
+**Visual Specifications**:
+- Candlesticks: Green for up days, red for down days
+- SMA 30: Blue line (short-term trend)
+- SMA 60: Orange line (intermediate trend)
+- SMA 200: Purple line (long-term trend)
+- Support/resistance: Horizontal dashed lines with labels
+
+### 2. Volume Bars
+**Chart Type**: Bar chart (synchronized with price chart)
+**Data Table**:
+```
+Date        Volume      Avg_Volume_20    Above_Avg    Color
+2024-01-01  [volume]    [volume]         [Yes/No]     [Green/Red]
+2024-01-02  [volume]    [volume]         [Yes/No]     [Green/Red]
+...
+```
+
+**Visual Specifications**:
+- Green bars: Volume on up days
+- Red bars: Volume on down days
+- Dashed line: 20-day average volume
+- Highlight bars exceeding 2x average volume
+
+### 3. RSI Indicator Panel
+**Chart Type**: Line chart with overbought/oversold zones
+**Data Table**:
+```
+Date        RSI_14    Overbought_70    Oversold_30    Signal
+2024-01-01  [value]   70               30             [Neutral/OB/OS]
+2024-01-02  [value]   70               30             [Neutral/OB/OS]
+...
+```
+
+**Visual Specifications**:
+- RSI line: Blue
+- Overbought zone (>70): Red shaded area
+- Oversold zone (<30): Green shaded area
+- Midline (50): Dashed gray line
+- Divergence annotations if present
+
+### 4. MACD Indicator Panel
+**Chart Type**: Line chart with histogram
+**Data Table**:
+```
+Date        MACD      Signal    Histogram    Crossover
+2024-01-01  [value]   [value]   [value]      [None/Bullish/Bearish]
+2024-01-02  [value]   [value]   [value]      [None/Bullish/Bearish]
+...
+```
+
+**Visual Specifications**:
+- MACD line: Blue
+- Signal line: Red
+- Histogram: Green (positive), Red (negative)
+- Zero line: Black dashed
+- Crossover markers: Arrows or dots
+
+### 5. Bollinger Bands
+**Chart Type**: Overlay on price chart
+**Data Table**:
+```
+Date        Price     BB_Upper    BB_Middle    BB_Lower    %B       Bandwidth
+2024-01-01  [price]   [price]     [price]      [price]     [value]  [value]
+2024-01-02  [price]   [price]     [price]      [price]     [value]  [value]
+...
+```
+
+**Visual Specifications**:
+- Upper band: Red dashed line
+- Middle band (20 SMA): Blue solid line
+- Lower band: Green dashed line
+- Shaded area between bands: Light gray
+- Price line: Black candlesticks
+
+### 6. Support & Resistance Levels
+**Annotation Overlay**:
+```
+Level Type       Price      Strength    Touches    Last Test    Notes
+Resistance       $[price]   Strong      5          [date]       Historical high
+Resistance       $[price]   Medium      3          [date]       Recent rejection
+Support          $[price]   Strong      4          [date]       Key accumulation zone
+Support          $[price]   Weak        2          [date]       Minor bounce level
+Fibonacci 61.8%  $[price]   N/A         -          -            Retracement level
+```
+
+### 7. Pattern Recognition Annotations
+**Chart Overlays**:
+```
+Pattern Type              Start Date    End Date      Status        Target        Risk/Reward
+Head & Shoulders          2024-01-15    2024-02-10    Confirmed     $[price]      1:3.2
+Ascending Triangle        2024-02-01    Current       Forming       $[price]      1:2.5
+Flag Pattern             2024-02-05    2024-02-08    Complete      $[price]      1:2.8
+```
+
+**Visual Elements**:
+- Pattern boundaries: Colored rectangles or polygons
+- Trendlines: Dashed connecting lines
+- Breakout points: Arrows indicating direction
+- Target levels: Horizontal lines with labels
+
+### ASCII Chart Example (Terminal Display)
+
+```
+Technical Chart: AAPL (Last 30 Days)
+
+Price ($)
+180 ┤                                    ╭─╮
+175 ┤                              ╭─────╯ ╰─╮
+170 ┤                        ╭─────╯         ╰──╮
+165 ┤                  ╭─────╯                  ╰─╮  ← Current: $172.50
+160 ┤            ╭─────╯                          ╰──
+155 ┤      ╭─────╯                                      SMA 30: $168.23
+150 ┤──────╯                                            SMA 60: $165.80
+    └──┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬──          ══════ Resistance: $178
+     1/15  1/22  1/29  2/05  2/12  2/19  2/26          ══════ Support: $155
+
+RSI (14)
+ 70 ┤                                    ● ← 68 (approaching OB)
+ 50 ┤                        ●     ●
+ 30 ┤            ●
+    └──┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬──
+
+Volume (M)
+100M┤                                    █
+ 75M┤                              █     █
+ 50M┤            █     █     █     █  █  █  █
+ 25M┤      █  █  █  █  █  █  █  █  █  █  █  █
+    └──┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬──
+
+Signals:
+↗ Bullish: Price above SMA 30 & 60
+● RSI approaching overbought (68) - potential pullback
+📊 Volume increasing on up days - healthy uptrend
+🎯 Target: $178 (resistance), Stop: $165 (below SMA 60)
+```
+
+### Integration with Report Generator
+
+When `--chart` flag is used, output is optimized for `/report-generator`:
+- All chart data tables formatted for Chart.js/Plotly
+- Color schemes specified for consistent visualization
+- Annotations and overlays clearly defined
+- Time axis formatting (date range, granularity)
+- Y-axis scaling recommendations (log scale for long-term charts)
+
+### Chart Configuration Recommendations
+
+**Timeframe Selection**:
+- **Day Trading**: 1-minute to 1-hour candles, last 5-10 days
+- **Swing Trading**: 4-hour to daily candles, last 3-6 months
+- **Position Trading**: Daily to weekly candles, last 1-3 years
+
+**Indicator Combinations**:
+- **Trend Following**: SMA 50/200 + MACD + ADX
+- **Mean Reversion**: Bollinger Bands + RSI + Stochastic
+- **Momentum**: RSI + MACD + Volume
+- **Breakout**: Bollinger Bands + Volume + Pattern Recognition
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/12-multi-timeframe-analysis-mtf.md

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+# Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF)
+
+Part 3 of 6 for `technical-analysis` — Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF); Volume Profile Analysis
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF)
+
+### Framework
+
+Analyze 3 timeframes simultaneously — higher timeframe establishes the trend, primary timeframe identifies the setup, lower timeframe refines the entry. Trade only in the direction of the higher timeframe trend.
+
+### Trading Setups by Approach
+
+| Approach          | Higher TF (Trend) | Primary TF (Setup) | Lower TF (Entry) |
+|-------------------|--------------------|---------------------|------------------|
+| Day Trading       | Weekly             | Daily               | 1-Hour           |
+| Swing Trading     | Monthly            | Weekly              | Daily            |
+| Position Trading  | Quarterly          | Monthly             | Weekly           |
+
+### MTF Alignment Scoring
+
+| Alignment Score | Interpretation                                                    |
+|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|
+| 3/3 Bullish     | Strong long setup — all timeframes confirm uptrend               |
+| 3/3 Bearish     | Strong short setup — all timeframes confirm downtrend            |
+| 2/3 Aligned     | Moderate setup — primary direction clear, minor conflict         |
+| 1/3 Aligned     | Weak/conflicting — avoid new positions, wait for clarity         |
+| 0/3 Aligned     | Contradiction across all timeframes — no trade                   |
+
+### MTF Confluence Table
+
+| Timeframe  | Trend Direction | Key Signal          | Support | Resistance | Alignment |
+|------------|-----------------|---------------------|---------|------------|-----------|
+| Higher TF  |                 |                     |         |            |           |
+| Primary TF |                 |                     |         |            |           |
+| Lower TF   |                 |                     |         |            |           |
+| **Overall**|                 | **Score: X/3**      |         |            |           |
+
+### MTF Integration with `--chart` Flag
+
+When `--chart` is used, MTF analysis adds the following data tables for report generation:
+
+```
+MTF Summary Table:
+Timeframe   Candle   MA Trend    RSI     MACD       Volume Trend   Signal
+Weekly      [data]   [Up/Down]   [val]   [Bull/Bear] [Rising/Fall]  [Bullish/Bearish/Neutral]
+Daily       [data]   [Up/Down]   [val]   [Bull/Bear] [Rising/Fall]  [Bullish/Bearish/Neutral]
+4-Hour      [data]   [Up/Down]   [val]   [Bull/Bear] [Rising/Fall]  [Bullish/Bearish/Neutral]
+Alignment Score: X/3
+```
+
+**Rule**: Never take a trade rated 1/3 or lower on MTF alignment. Wait for 2/3 minimum before entry.
+
+---
+
+## Volume Profile Analysis
+
+### Key Concepts
+
+- **Point of Control (POC)**: The price level with the highest volume traded over the selected period. Acts as a magnetic price level — markets frequently return to and consolidate around the POC.
+- **Value Area (VA)**: The price range where approximately 70% of total volume was traded. Defines the "fair value zone" as agreed upon by market participants.
+- **Value Area High (VAH)**: Upper boundary of the Value Area. Strong resistance when price is approaching from below.
+- **Value Area Low (VAL)**: Lower boundary of the Value Area. Strong support when price is approaching from above.
+- **Low Volume Node (LVN)**: A price range with minimal volume. Price passes through LVNs quickly — acts as a gap zone.
+- **High Volume Node (HVN)**: A price range with dense volume. Price is magnetically attracted and consolidates around HVNs.
+
+### Volume Profile Shapes
+
+| Shape                | Description                                         | Implication                                         |
+|----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|
+| Normal (Bell Curve)  | Symmetric distribution, clear POC in the middle    | Balanced, range-bound market — fair value accepted  |
+| P-Shape              | High volume at top, thin tail at bottom             | Buying tail below = short-covering rally, bullish   |
+| b-Shape              | High volume at bottom, thin tail at top             | Selling tail above = distribution/top, bearish      |
+| Double Distribution  | Two high-volume nodes with low-volume gap between  | Market in transition — break of LVN is directional  |
+| Thin Profile         | Volume evenly spread, no clear POC                  | Trending market — follow the trend, no anchoring    |
+
+### Volume Profile Trading Rules
+
+| Scenario                        | Interpretation                                          | Action                                    |
+|---------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|
+| Price > VAH (above Value Area)  | Bullish — market accepted higher prices, strong trend  | Buy breakouts above VAH with volume       |
+| Price < VAL (below Value Area)  | Bearish — market rejected higher prices, breakdown     | Sell breakdowns below VAL with volume     |
+| Price at POC                    | High acceptance zone — balanced, range-bound likely    | Fade edges of range; buy VAL, sell VAH    |
+| Price enters LVN (thin area)    | Fast move — price moves quickly through low-volume gap | Expect acceleration; don't fade momentum  |
+| Price at HVN                    | Magnetic zone — consolidation, range trade likely      | Mean-reversion strategies appropriate     |
+
+### Session vs. Composite Profile
+
+- **Session Profile**: Volume profile for a single trading day or week. Identifies intraday POC, VAH, VAL.
+- **Composite Profile**: Aggregated over weeks, months, or custom date range. Identifies major structural levels.
+- **Integration rule**: Composite HVNs = major structural support/resistance levels. LVNs = breakout acceleration zones. Session POC = short-term magnet.
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/13-advanced-indicators-ichimoku-cloud.md

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+# Advanced Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud
+
+Part 4 of 6 for `technical-analysis` — Advanced Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Advanced Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud
+
+### Five Components
+
+| Component     | Calculation                                     | Default Period | Purpose                              |
+|---------------|-------------------------------------------------|----------------|--------------------------------------|
+| Tenkan-sen    | (9-period High + 9-period Low) / 2              | 9 periods      | Short-term trend / momentum line     |
+| Kijun-sen     | (26-period High + 26-period Low) / 2            | 26 periods     | Medium-term trend / baseline         |
+| Senkou Span A | (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 ahead | Leading        | Fast cloud boundary                  |
+| Senkou Span B | (52-period High + 52-period Low) / 2, plotted 26 ahead | 52 periods | Slow cloud boundary              |
+| Chikou Span   | Current close plotted 26 periods back           | Lagging        | Confirms trend vs. historical price  |
+
+The shaded area between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B is the **Kumo (Cloud)**.
+
+### Bullish Ichimoku Signals
+
+| Signal                    | Condition                                               | Strength |
+|---------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|----------|
+| Price above Cloud         | Price above both Span A and Span B                      | Base condition |
+| Green Cloud               | Span A > Span B (cloud is green/bullish)                | Trend support |
+| TK Cross (Bullish)        | Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen                      | Medium signal |
+| TK Cross above Cloud      | Bullish TK cross while price is above the cloud         | Strong signal |
+| Chikou above price        | Chikou Span is above historical price 26 periods ago    | Confirms uptrend |
+| All 5 elements aligned    | All conditions bullish simultaneously                   | Strongest signal |
+
+### Bearish Ichimoku Signals
+
+| Signal                    | Condition                                               | Strength |
+|---------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|----------|
+| Price below Cloud         | Price below both Span A and Span B                      | Base condition |
+| Red Cloud                 | Span B > Span A (cloud is red/bearish)                  | Trend resistance |
+| TK Cross (Bearish)        | Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen                      | Medium signal |
+| TK Cross below Cloud      | Bearish TK cross while price is below the cloud         | Strong signal |
+| Chikou below price        | Chikou Span is below historical price 26 periods ago    | Confirms downtrend |
+| All 5 elements aligned    | All conditions bearish simultaneously                   | Strongest signal |
+
+### Kumo Twist
+
+- A **Kumo Twist** occurs when Senkou Span A and Span B cross — changing the cloud color from green to red (bearish twist) or red to green (bullish twist).
+- The cloud is plotted 26 periods ahead, so a Kumo Twist is an early warning signal visible in advance.
+- **Thin cloud**: Weak support/resistance — price can break through easily.
+- **Thick cloud**: Strong support/resistance — price will struggle to penetrate.
+
+### Ichimoku Signal Strength Matrix
+
+| # Bullish Conditions Met | Signal Grade           | Suggested Bias    |
+|--------------------------|------------------------|-------------------|
+| 5/5                      | Maximum Bullish        | Strong long bias  |
+| 4/5                      | Strong Bullish         | Long bias         |
+| 3/5                      | Moderate Bullish       | Lean long         |
+| 2/5                      | Mixed / Transitioning  | Neutral           |
+| 1/5 or 0/5               | Bearish                | Short bias        |
+
+---
+
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/14-options-flow-integration.md

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+# Options Flow Integration
+
+Part 5 of 6 for `technical-analysis` — Options Flow Integration; Output; Standard Signal Output
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Options Flow Integration
+
+### Put/Call Ratio Interpretation
+
+The Put/Call ratio measures options market sentiment — the ratio of put volume to call volume on a given day.
+
+| P/C Ratio   | Interpretation                                                    |
+|-------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|
+| < 0.6       | Extreme bullishness / complacency — contrarian warning (overbought)|
+| 0.6–0.7     | Bullish — call buyers dominating, positive sentiment              |
+| 0.7–1.0     | Neutral — balanced activity                                       |
+| 1.0–1.3     | Bearish fear — put buyers dominating, defensive hedging           |
+| > 1.3       | Extreme fear — potential contrarian buy signal (maximum bearishness)|
+
+**CBOE Total P/C vs. Equity-Only P/C**: Equity-only P/C more directly reflects retail/institutional directional bets (excludes index hedging).
+
+### Unusual Options Activity (UOA) Signals
+
+- **Large block trades**: Single orders of 500+ contracts, especially OTM (out-of-the-money)
+- **OTM sweeps**: Aggressive market orders sweeping multiple exchanges at ask — directional conviction
+- **Dark pool prints**: Large, off-exchange block prints can signal institutional accumulation/distribution
+- **Short-dated OTM calls on takeover candidates**: One of the most reliable pre-announcement signals
+- **Key UOA filters**: Volume > 5x open interest, expiry within 30 days, OTM strike, market order execution
+
+### Implied Volatility (IV) vs. Historical Volatility (HV)
+
+| Condition   | Description                                              | Options Strategy Implication        |
+|-------------|----------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|
+| IV >> HV    | Options are expensive — market pricing elevated moves   | Premium selling opportunity (write options) |
+| IV ≈ HV     | Options fairly priced                                    | No directional vol edge             |
+| IV << HV    | Options are cheap — market underpricing moves           | Buying options (long vol opportunity)|
+
+- **IV Rank (IVR)**: Current IV relative to its 52-week range. IVR > 50 = elevated; IVR < 25 = depressed.
+- **IV Percentile**: % of days in the past year where IV was lower than current. More robust than IV Rank.
+
+### Max Pain Theory
+
+- **Max Pain** = The strike price at which the total value of all outstanding options (puts and calls) would expire worthless — the price that causes maximum loss for option buyers.
+- Near expiration, market prices have a tendency to gravitate toward the max pain level (due to dealer hedging flows).
+- Most useful in the final 5–7 days before monthly options expiration (OPEX).
+- **Application**: If stock is significantly above max pain near OPEX, short-term mean reversion is possible.
+
+### Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Spot Price Impact
+
+- **Gamma** measures how much a dealer's delta changes per $1 move in the underlying.
+- **Positive GEX (Dealer Long Gamma)**: Dealers buy into dips and sell into rallies — suppresses volatility, market stays range-bound.
+- **Negative GEX (Dealer Short Gamma)**: Dealers sell into dips and buy into rallies — amplifies moves, increases volatility.
+- **GEX Flip Level**: The price at which market transitions from positive to negative gamma — crossing this level can accelerate directional moves.
+- **Practical rule**: Low realized volatility + tightening range = likely high positive GEX environment. Breakouts become more powerful when negative GEX zone is entered.
+
+> **Note**: This section provides interpretive framework. Actual real-time options flow data, IV readings, and GEX levels must be sourced from the user's options data provider (e.g., Market Chameleon, Unusual Whales, SpotGamma, Thinkorswim).
+
+---
+
+## Output
+
+Provide technical analysis report with:
+- Current trend and momentum assessment
+- Key chart patterns identified
+- Support and resistance levels
+- Technical indicator signals
+- Volume and volatility analysis
+- Entry/exit points and price targets
+- Stop-loss recommendations
+- Risk/reward ratio for trade setups
+- Time horizon (short-term, swing, position trading)
+- MTF alignment score and summary table
+- Ichimoku Cloud status (price above/below/inside cloud)
+- Volume Profile POC, VAH, VAL levels
+
+### Enhanced Output (with --chart flag)
+- All standard output sections above
+- Chart data tables for price, volume, and indicators
+- MTF confluence table with signal direction per timeframe
+- ASCII charts for terminal display
+- Pattern recognition overlays with annotations
+- Support/resistance level visualizations
+- Volume Profile data (POC, VA, LVN/HVN zones)
+- Technical indicator panels (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku)
+- Chart specifications for HTML report generation
+- Color-coded signals (bullish/bearish/neutral)
+
+Keep analysis objective and data-driven, avoiding emotional bias.
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/technical-analysis/references/15-thesis-invalidation.md

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+# Thesis Invalidation
+
+Part 6 of 6 for `technical-analysis` — Thesis Invalidation
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- Price closes below the MA200 / key support level identified in this analysis on above-average volume
+- MA30 crosses below MA60 (death cross) AND RSI drops below 40
+- Macro regime shift: Fed pivots hawkish unexpectedly, recession probability >60%
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- Price closes above key resistance / MA200 level with volume confirmation
+- price reclaims MA200 AND MA30 turns up AND volume confirms
+- Fundamental improvement: surprise earnings beat >20% with guidance raise
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
+
+