@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.8.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/SKILL.md

@@ -52,77 +52,6 @@ This is a **red-team / devil's-advocate tool by design**. It is deliberately bia
 
 Construct a rigorous short thesis for a US-listed stock: identify overvaluation, deteriorating fundamentals, accounting and quality red flags, competitive and secular threats, weak management and capital allocation, and concrete downside catalysts — then quantify the downside and define what would prove the bear wrong.
 
-## Analysis Framework
-
-### 1. Valuation Stretch — "The Price Already Assumes Too Much"
-
-The most common bear case: the market is paying for perfection.
-
-- **Multiple vs. history and peers** — Is P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, or P/FCF elevated vs. the stock's own 5-year range and vs. sector peers? By how many turns?
-- **Expectations embedded in the price** — Reverse-DCF: what growth rate / margin does today's price *require*? Is that plausible, or does it demand flawless execution for a decade?
-- **Priced for perfection** — Any deceleration, miss, or guide-down that the market has not discounted.
-- **PEG and growth-adjusted value** — Is the growth premium justified by durable growth, or by a one-time / cyclical surge?
-- **Quality of the multiple** — Is the "cheap" multiple a value trap (declining business) rather than a bargain?
-
-### 2. Deteriorating Fundamentals — "The Business Is Getting Worse"
-
-- **Revenue trajectory** — Decelerating growth, tougher comps, saturation, or outright declines.
-- **Margin compression** — Gross/operating/net margin trend breaking down; input-cost, pricing, or mix pressure.
-- **Cash flow quality** — FCF diverging from net income; rising capex intensity; negative or shrinking FCF.
-- **Balance sheet stress** — Rising leverage, near-term maturities, covenant risk, interest-coverage deterioration, rising net debt / EBITDA.
-- **Working capital red flags** — Inventory building faster than sales; receivables (DSO) rising (channel stuffing risk).
-- **Returns on capital** — Falling ROIC/ROE, especially ROIC below WACC (value-destroying growth).
-
-### 3. Accounting & Earnings-Quality Red Flags — "The Numbers May Not Be Real"
-
-Apply forensic-accounting skepticism (Hindenburg / Muddy Waters / Beneish-style lenses):
-
-- **Aggressive revenue recognition** — Bill-and-hold, percentage-of-completion abuse, related-party revenue.
-- **Non-GAAP gaming** — Large or growing gap between GAAP and "adjusted" earnings; recurring "one-time" charges; stock-based comp excluded from adjusted metrics.
-- **Cash vs. accrual divergence** — Net income up while operating cash flow lags = low earnings quality.
-- **Buyback-masked dilution** — Buybacks offsetting heavy SBC rather than reducing share count; per-share metrics flattered by financial engineering.
-- **DSO / DIO trends** — Rising days-sales-outstanding or days-inventory (Beneish DSRI/SGI signals).
-- **Auditor / disclosure issues** — Auditor changes, restatements, late filings, material-weakness disclosures, CFO turnover.
-
-### 4. Competitive & Secular Threats — "The Moat Is Eroding"
-
-- **Moat erosion** — Loss of pricing power, share loss to rivals, commoditization.
-- **Disruption / obsolescence** — New entrant, technology shift, or substitute product structurally impairing the model.
-- **Secular decline** — Industry in structural (not cyclical) contraction; TAM shrinking.
-- **Customer & supplier concentration** — Dependence on a few customers/suppliers; key-customer churn risk.
-- **Regulatory / legal overhang** — Antitrust, litigation, tariffs, pending investigations, product-liability exposure.
-
-### 5. Management & Capital Allocation — "Stewardship Is Poor"
-
-- **Capital-allocation track record** — Value-destructive M&A, buybacks at peak prices, dividends funded by debt.
-- **Insider behavior** — Heavy insider selling, option-heavy comp, misaligned incentives.
-- **Governance red flags** — Dual-class control, related-party transactions, board entrenchment, aggressive guidance history.
-- **Credibility** — Repeated guide-downs, promotional tone, or a widening gap between narrative and results.
-
-### 6. Downside Catalysts & Timeline — "What Breaks It, and When"
-
-A bear thesis without a catalyst is just an opinion. Identify what forces repricing:
-
-- **Near-term (0–6 mo)** — Next earnings/guide-down, expiring lockup, debt maturity, product cycle miss, key data point.
-- **Medium-term (6–18 mo)** — Margin normalization, competitive launch, regulatory decision, refinancing at higher rates.
-- **Structural** — Multiple compression as growth fades; index removal; secular demand roll-over.
-- For each, note the **trigger, likely magnitude, and timing**.
-
-### 7. Downside Quantification — "How Far Can It Fall"
-
-- **Bear price target** — Apply a de-rated multiple to conservative (bear-case) estimates. Show the math.
-- **Downside scenario tree** — Base-bear vs. severe-bear (e.g., recession + multiple compression) with rough probabilities.
-- **Risk/reward from here** — Downside-to-target vs. upside-if-wrong; is the asymmetry favorable to a short / to avoiding the name?
-- **Fundamental floor** — Book value, net cash, or asset value that limits downside (honest bears state the floor).
-
-### 8. Thesis-Killers — "What Would Prove the Bear Wrong" (Mandatory)
-
-Intellectual honesty is what separates a credible bear from a permabear. Explicitly list:
-
-- The 3–5 developments that would **invalidate the short thesis** (e.g., margin re-acceleration, successful new product, deleveraging, activist/takeover interest).
-- The strongest **bull counterarguments** and why the bear still disagrees (or concedes).
-- The biggest **risk to being short**: valuation support, squeeze potential (cross-reference `/short-interest`), takeout risk, or a fundamental floor.
-
 ## Input Formats
 
 ### Format 1: Single-Stock Bear Case
@@ -146,88 +75,20 @@ User: /bear-case — challenge this stock-eval output: [paste]
 Claude takes the opposing side of the prior (likely balanced or bullish) analysis.
 ```
 
-## Output
-
-Provide a structured bear-case report:
-
-### 1. One-Sided-Disclosure Banner
-> ⚠️ This is a **deliberately one-sided bear case** built to surface counterevidence. Pair it with `/stock-eval` or a bull analysis for a balanced view.
-
-### 2. Bear Thesis in Three Sentences
-The elevator pitch for why the stock is a bad hold.
-
-### 3. Bear Case Strength Score (0–10)
-```
-Pillar                              Weight   Score
-Valuation stretch                    0–2      X.X
-Deteriorating fundamentals           0–2      X.X
-Accounting / earnings-quality flags  0–2      X.X
-Competitive & secular threats        0–2      X.X
-Management & capital allocation      0–1      X.X
-Catalyst clarity & timing            0–1      X.X
-                          BEAR CASE STRENGTH:  X.X / 10
-```
-```
-Bear Case Strength   Interpretation
-0.0–2.0              Weak — few credible negatives; bull case likely intact
-2.1–4.0              Modest — some concerns, not thesis-breaking
-4.1–6.0              Moderate — real red flags; reduce/hedge worth considering
-6.1–8.0              Strong — multiple independent negatives; avoid / short candidate
-8.1–10.0            Severe — deep impairment or fraud-risk signals; high-conviction bear
-```
-
-### 4. Detailed Findings
-Cover pillars 1–7 above, each with the evidence and its severity.
-
-### 5. Downside Target & Risk/Reward
-Bear price target with the math, scenario tree, and asymmetry assessment.
-
-### 6. Thesis-Killers
-The mandatory list of what would prove the bear wrong.
-
-## Signal Output
+## Read the Parts
 
-The Bear Case Strength Score maps to the standard signal as follows: a **stronger bear case (higher score) means a more BEARISH signal**. A strong/severe bear case → BEARISH / SELL; a weak bear case → the bear failed to make its point, leaning NEUTRAL-to-constructive. Because this skill argues one side, state the mapping explicitly so the user reads the block correctly.
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- Fundamentals deteriorate: margin compression, decelerating revenue, or a guide-down
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- Margin or revenue growth re-accelerates and beats consensus with a guidance raise
-- A thesis-killer fires: successful new product, deleveraging, activist/takeover interest, or a short squeeze
-- Valuation compresses to a level that already prices in the bear case (downside exhausted)
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
-- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
-- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
-
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. Open a part with `read`,
+resolved against this skill's base directory, and open it **whole — with no line window**:
+reporting a rule or a template out of a slice of a part is how a file gets described as read
+when it was only skimmed. Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`. If a receipt
+shows `[... tool result middle pruned ...]`, re-read it with `offset` before concluding
+anything is missing.
 
-Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+- `references/10-analysis-framework.md` — Analysis Framework
+- `references/11-output-and-signal.md` — Output; Signal Output
+- `references/12-thesis-invalidation.md` — Thesis Invalidation
 
-**Note:** The Score above uses the standard bullish scale for cross-skill comparability. A strong bear case produces a LOW score (bearish). Because this analysis is deliberately one-sided, always pair it with `/stock-eval` before acting.
+Loading this file is not reading the skill: the steps, templates, and thresholds exist only
+in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not, and never report a
+step or a template you have not read in this session.
 
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/10-analysis-framework.md

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+# Analysis Framework
+
+Part 1 of 3 for `bear-case` — the eight bear angles with their questions and evidence tests
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+### 1. Valuation Stretch — "The Price Already Assumes Too Much"
+
+The most common bear case: the market is paying for perfection.
+
+- **Multiple vs. history and peers** — Is P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, or P/FCF elevated vs. the stock's own 5-year range and vs. sector peers? By how many turns?
+- **Expectations embedded in the price** — Reverse-DCF: what growth rate / margin does today's price *require*? Is that plausible, or does it demand flawless execution for a decade?
+- **Priced for perfection** — Any deceleration, miss, or guide-down that the market has not discounted.
+- **PEG and growth-adjusted value** — Is the growth premium justified by durable growth, or by a one-time / cyclical surge?
+- **Quality of the multiple** — Is the "cheap" multiple a value trap (declining business) rather than a bargain?
+
+### 2. Deteriorating Fundamentals — "The Business Is Getting Worse"
+
+- **Revenue trajectory** — Decelerating growth, tougher comps, saturation, or outright declines.
+- **Margin compression** — Gross/operating/net margin trend breaking down; input-cost, pricing, or mix pressure.
+- **Cash flow quality** — FCF diverging from net income; rising capex intensity; negative or shrinking FCF.
+- **Balance sheet stress** — Rising leverage, near-term maturities, covenant risk, interest-coverage deterioration, rising net debt / EBITDA.
+- **Working capital red flags** — Inventory building faster than sales; receivables (DSO) rising (channel stuffing risk).
+- **Returns on capital** — Falling ROIC/ROE, especially ROIC below WACC (value-destroying growth).
+
+### 3. Accounting & Earnings-Quality Red Flags — "The Numbers May Not Be Real"
+
+Apply forensic-accounting skepticism (Hindenburg / Muddy Waters / Beneish-style lenses):
+
+- **Aggressive revenue recognition** — Bill-and-hold, percentage-of-completion abuse, related-party revenue.
+- **Non-GAAP gaming** — Large or growing gap between GAAP and "adjusted" earnings; recurring "one-time" charges; stock-based comp excluded from adjusted metrics.
+- **Cash vs. accrual divergence** — Net income up while operating cash flow lags = low earnings quality.
+- **Buyback-masked dilution** — Buybacks offsetting heavy SBC rather than reducing share count; per-share metrics flattered by financial engineering.
+- **DSO / DIO trends** — Rising days-sales-outstanding or days-inventory (Beneish DSRI/SGI signals).
+- **Auditor / disclosure issues** — Auditor changes, restatements, late filings, material-weakness disclosures, CFO turnover.
+
+### 4. Competitive & Secular Threats — "The Moat Is Eroding"
+
+- **Moat erosion** — Loss of pricing power, share loss to rivals, commoditization.
+- **Disruption / obsolescence** — New entrant, technology shift, or substitute product structurally impairing the model.
+- **Secular decline** — Industry in structural (not cyclical) contraction; TAM shrinking.
+- **Customer & supplier concentration** — Dependence on a few customers/suppliers; key-customer churn risk.
+- **Regulatory / legal overhang** — Antitrust, litigation, tariffs, pending investigations, product-liability exposure.
+
+### 5. Management & Capital Allocation — "Stewardship Is Poor"
+
+- **Capital-allocation track record** — Value-destructive M&A, buybacks at peak prices, dividends funded by debt.
+- **Insider behavior** — Heavy insider selling, option-heavy comp, misaligned incentives.
+- **Governance red flags** — Dual-class control, related-party transactions, board entrenchment, aggressive guidance history.
+- **Credibility** — Repeated guide-downs, promotional tone, or a widening gap between narrative and results.
+
+### 6. Downside Catalysts & Timeline — "What Breaks It, and When"
+
+A bear thesis without a catalyst is just an opinion. Identify what forces repricing:
+
+- **Near-term (0–6 mo)** — Next earnings/guide-down, expiring lockup, debt maturity, product cycle miss, key data point.
+- **Medium-term (6–18 mo)** — Margin normalization, competitive launch, regulatory decision, refinancing at higher rates.
+- **Structural** — Multiple compression as growth fades; index removal; secular demand roll-over.
+- For each, note the **trigger, likely magnitude, and timing**.
+
+### 7. Downside Quantification — "How Far Can It Fall"
+
+- **Bear price target** — Apply a de-rated multiple to conservative (bear-case) estimates. Show the math.
+- **Downside scenario tree** — Base-bear vs. severe-bear (e.g., recession + multiple compression) with rough probabilities.
+- **Risk/reward from here** — Downside-to-target vs. upside-if-wrong; is the asymmetry favorable to a short / to avoiding the name?
+- **Fundamental floor** — Book value, net cash, or asset value that limits downside (honest bears state the floor).
+
+### 8. Thesis-Killers — "What Would Prove the Bear Wrong" (Mandatory)
+
+Intellectual honesty is what separates a credible bear from a permabear. Explicitly list:
+
+- The 3–5 developments that would **invalidate the short thesis** (e.g., margin re-acceleration, successful new product, deleveraging, activist/takeover interest).
+- The strongest **bull counterarguments** and why the bear still disagrees (or concedes).
+- The biggest **risk to being short**: valuation support, squeeze potential (cross-reference `/short-interest`), takeout risk, or a fundamental floor.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/11-output-and-signal.md

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+# Output and Signal
+
+Part 2 of 3 for `bear-case` — the output sections, the scoring block, and the machine-readable signal shape
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Output
+
+Provide a structured bear-case report:
+
+### 1. One-Sided-Disclosure Banner
+> ⚠️ This is a **deliberately one-sided bear case** built to surface counterevidence. Pair it with `/stock-eval` or a bull analysis for a balanced view.
+
+### 2. Bear Thesis in Three Sentences
+The elevator pitch for why the stock is a bad hold.
+
+### 3. Bear Case Strength Score (0–10)
+```
+Pillar                              Weight   Score
+Valuation stretch                    0–2      X.X
+Deteriorating fundamentals           0–2      X.X
+Accounting / earnings-quality flags  0–2      X.X
+Competitive & secular threats        0–2      X.X
+Management & capital allocation      0–1      X.X
+Catalyst clarity & timing            0–1      X.X
+                          BEAR CASE STRENGTH:  X.X / 10
+```
+```
+Bear Case Strength   Interpretation
+0.0–2.0              Weak — few credible negatives; bull case likely intact
+2.1–4.0              Modest — some concerns, not thesis-breaking
+4.1–6.0              Moderate — real red flags; reduce/hedge worth considering
+6.1–8.0              Strong — multiple independent negatives; avoid / short candidate
+8.1–10.0            Severe — deep impairment or fraud-risk signals; high-conviction bear
+```
+
+### 4. Detailed Findings
+Cover pillars 1–7 (in `10-analysis-framework.md`), each with the evidence and its severity.
+
+### 5. Downside Target & Risk/Reward
+Bear price target with the math, scenario tree, and asymmetry assessment.
+
+### 6. Thesis-Killers
+The mandatory list of what would prove the bear wrong.
+
+## Signal Output
+
+The Bear Case Strength Score maps to the standard signal as follows: a **stronger bear case (higher score) means a more BEARISH signal**. A strong/severe bear case → BEARISH / SELL; a weak bear case → the bear failed to make its point, leaning NEUTRAL-to-constructive. Because this skill argues one side, state the mapping explicitly so the user reads the block correctly.
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+# Thesis Invalidation
+
+Part 3 of 3 for `bear-case` — the invalidation contract and what retires a bear thesis
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- Fundamentals deteriorate: margin compression, decelerating revenue, or a guide-down
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- Margin or revenue growth re-accelerates and beats consensus with a guidance raise
+- A thesis-killer fires: successful new product, deleveraging, activist/takeover interest, or a short squeeze
+- Valuation compresses to a level that already prices in the bear case (downside exhausted)
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Note:** The Score in `11-output-and-signal.md` uses the standard bullish scale for cross-skill comparability. A strong bear case produces a LOW score (bearish). Because this analysis is deliberately one-sided, always pair it with `/stock-eval` before acting.
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md

@@ -38,290 +38,16 @@ Data & Sources
 
 ---
 
-## Persona
+## Read the Parts
 
-You are an expert event-driven analyst specializing in catalyst identification and event-driven investment strategies. Your role is to systematically map every material event on the horizon, score its likely price impact, and translate that map into actionable positioning guidance.
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. **whole, with no line window** — quoting a rule or a template out of a slice of one is how a
+file gets reported as read when it was only skimmed. The file names below are the only
+addressing this entry has.
 
----
-
-## Overview
-
-The **Catalyst Calendar** skill identifies and scores upcoming catalysts over a configurable window (default 90 days) for one or more tickers. It surfaces the full event landscape — earnings, macro releases, corporate actions, regulatory decisions, and index events — and ranks each by probability and expected price impact so investors can plan entries, exits, and hedges with precision.
-
----
-
-## Input
-
-```
-[TICKER] [--days 90] [--focus earnings|macro|corporate|all]
-```
-
-- `TICKER` — single ticker (e.g., `AAPL`) or comma-separated list (e.g., `AAPL,MSFT,NVDA`)
-- `--days` — look-ahead window in days (default: 90; max: 180)
-- `--focus` — filter to a catalyst category (default: `all`)
-
-**Example invocations:**
-- `/catalyst-calendar TSLA` — full 90-day calendar for Tesla
-- `/catalyst-calendar MRNA --focus earnings` — earnings catalysts only for Moderna
-- `/catalyst-calendar AAPL,MSFT --days 60` — 60-day calendar comparing Apple and Microsoft
-
----
-
-## Section A — Earnings Events
-
-Earnings are typically the highest-impact recurring catalyst. Analyze the following:
-
-### A1. Next Estimated Earnings Date
-- Confirm the next earnings date and reporting quarter (e.g., Q2 FY2026, expected late July)
-- Note whether the date is confirmed by the company or is an analyst estimate
-- Flag if date has shifted from prior guidance (early/late reporting is itself a signal)
-
-### A2. Consensus Estimates
-- **EPS estimate**: consensus, high, and low analyst estimates
-- **Revenue estimate**: consensus, high, and low analyst estimates
-- **Year-over-year growth implied** by consensus (EPS growth %, revenue growth %)
-- Note estimate revision trend over last 30/60/90 days (rising, falling, stable)
-
-### A3. Historical Beat/Miss Rate (Last 8 Quarters)
-Present as a table:
-
-| Quarter | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Beat/Miss | Revenue Est | Revenue Actual | Beat/Miss |
-|---------|---------|------------|-----------|-------------|----------------|-----------|
-
-- Compute beat rate: X/8 quarters
-- Note magnitude of surprises (average upside/downside %)
-- Highlight any streak (e.g., 6 consecutive beats)
-
-### A4. Options-Implied Move
-- Estimate the at-the-money straddle price for the nearest expiry bracketing earnings
-- **Implied move % = (ATM call price + ATM put price) / stock price**
-- Compare to average realized post-earnings move over last 8 quarters
-- Flag if implied move is elevated vs. historical (suggests hedging demand or uncertainty)
-
-### A5. Pre-Earnings Drift Pattern
-- Typical drift direction in the 2 weeks before earnings (positive/negative/flat)
-- Average magnitude of pre-earnings drift
-- Whether the stock tends to be bought into earnings or distributed (institutional behavior)
-
-### A6. Post-Earnings Reaction Guide
-- **Beat + raise guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., +8%)
-- **Beat + maintain guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., +2%)
-- **In-line + maintain**: historical average reaction (e.g., -1%)
-- **Miss + cut guidance**: historical average reaction (e.g., -12%)
-- Identify whether the stock is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" name vs. momentum-driven
-
----
-
-## Section B — Macro Catalyst Calendar
-
-Macro events create sector-wide and market-wide price dislocations. Map the following within the look-ahead window:
-
-### B1. FOMC Meeting Dates
-- List all FOMC meeting dates in window
-- Current market expectation for each meeting (hold/cut/hike, basis points)
-- **Rate sensitivity assessment for this stock:**
-  - Is the stock rate-sensitive? (high-growth tech, REITs, utilities are most sensitive)
-  - Direction of impact: higher rates = negative/positive/neutral for this ticker
-  - Historical correlation: how has the stock moved on prior FOMC days?
-
-### B2. CPI / PCE Release Dates
-- List CPI and core PCE release dates in window
-- **Inflation sensitivity for this sector:**
-  - Does the company benefit from inflation (commodity producers, pricing-power names)?
-  - Does the company suffer from inflation (thin-margin retailers, manufacturers with input cost exposure)?
-  - Historical reaction to hot vs. cool CPI prints
-
-### B3. Jobs Report (NFP) Dates
-- List Non-Farm Payroll release dates in window
-- **Cyclical vs. defensive classification:**
-  - Strong jobs = risk-on: bullish for cyclicals, bearish for defensives
-  - Weak jobs = risk-off: bearish for cyclicals, neutral-to-bullish for defensives
-  - Classify this ticker accordingly
-
-### B4. Treasury Auction Dates
-- Note major Treasury auction dates (10Y, 30Y) in window
-- Relevant primarily for rate-sensitive equities (financials, REITs, utilities, high-duration tech)
-- Flag if auction is expected to have unusual supply or demand dynamics
-
----
-
-## Section C — Company-Specific Catalysts
-
-Beyond earnings and macro, company-level events often produce the largest idiosyncratic moves:
-
-### C1. Analyst / Investor Day
-- Typical cadence (annual, biannual, ad hoc)
-- Date of last Investor Day and key announcements made
-- Whether an Investor Day is expected within the window (positive: management engagement; risk: guidance reset)
-
-### C2. Product Launches & Major Announcements
-- Known or expected product launches, version releases, or platform announcements
-- Conference appearances where new product reveals are customary (e.g., Apple WWDC, NVIDIA GTC)
-- Expected launch dates and potential revenue contribution
-
-### C3. FDA Approvals / Regulatory Decisions *(Biotech & Pharma Only)*
-- PDUFA dates (FDA action dates) within window
-- Probability of approval (analyst consensus, prior CRL history)
-- Binary impact estimates (approval: +X%, rejection: -Y%)
-- Any advisory committee (AdCom) meetings preceding the decision
-
-### C4. Index Rebalancing Eligibility
-- Is the stock a candidate for S&P 500, Russell 2000/1000, or MSCI inclusion/exclusion?
-- Next rebalancing date for relevant indices
-- Estimated passive fund buying or selling flows upon inclusion/exclusion
-- Historical index inclusion premium for comparable stocks
-
-### C5. Lock-Up Expiration Dates
-- Applicable if IPO or secondary offering occurred within last 18 months
-- Lock-up expiration date and total shares becoming eligible for sale
-- Insider/sponsor ownership as % of float (higher % = greater overhang risk)
-- Historical price behavior in the 2–4 weeks surrounding lock-up expirations
-
-### C6. Debt Maturity / Refinancing Windows
-- Any significant debt maturities within the window
-- Current credit conditions and refinancing cost vs. existing rate
-- Refinancing risk (can the company refinance at acceptable terms?)
-- Relevant if leverage is elevated (Net Debt/EBITDA > 3×)
-
-### C7. Contract Renewals / Government Budget Cycles
-- Applicable for defense contractors, government IT, healthcare services
-- Key contract renewal dates and estimated contract value
-- Government fiscal year-end effects (accelerated spending in Q4 FY = Sep 30)
-- Continuing resolution or budget uncertainty risk
-
-### C8. Management Conference Presentations
-- Upcoming presentations at major industry conferences (e.g., JPM Healthcare Conference, CES, Mobile World Congress, Goldman Sachs Communacopia)
-- Management tone and guidance updates historically provided at these events
-- Whether management has a history of pre-announcing or guiding at conferences
-
----
-
-## Section D — Catalyst Impact Scoring Table
-
-Synthesize all identified catalysts into a unified scoring table. For each catalyst:
-
-| Est. Date | Event | Probability | Bull Impact | Bear Impact | Net Bias | Pre-event Action |
-|-----------|-------|-------------|-------------|-------------|----------|-----------------|
-| YYYY-MM-DD | [Event name] | High/Med/Low | +X% | -Y% | Bullish/Bearish/Binary/Neutral | Buy dip before / Reduce ahead / Hold / Hedge |
-
-**Scoring Guidance:**
-- **Probability**: High (>70%), Medium (40–70%), Low (<40%) of the bullish outcome occurring
-- **Bull Impact**: Expected % upside in the bullish scenario
-- **Bear Impact**: Expected % downside in the bearish scenario (express as negative)
-- **Net Bias**: Overall directional lean given probability-weighted outcomes
-  - Bullish: probability-weighted EV clearly positive
-  - Bearish: probability-weighted EV clearly negative
-  - Binary: roughly equal bull/bear outcomes with high magnitude
-  - Neutral: low magnitude or offsetting scenarios
-- **Pre-event Action**: recommended positioning ahead of the event
-
-**Rank catalysts** by absolute expected value (probability × average of |bull| and |bear| impacts) to identify the highest-priority events.
-
----
-
-## Section E — Event-Driven Strategy Suggestions
-
-Translate the catalyst map into actionable playbooks:
-
-### E1. Pre-Event Positioning Playbook
-- **High beat-rate earnings (>65%)**: Consider initiating or adding to position 10–15 trading days before earnings; scale out 1–2 days before if implied move is elevated (IV crush risk)
-- **Known positive catalysts (FDA, index inclusion)**: Build position in 4–6 week advance window; use limit orders on any dips
-- **Macro tailwinds**: Align sector positioning with upcoming FOMC/CPI if macro bias is clear
-- **Conference presentations**: Monitor for pre-conference guidance updates; light positioning ahead of known presenter history
-
-### E2. Post-Event Reaction Guide
-- **IV Crush after earnings**: If IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) > 70 heading into earnings, short straddle or iron condor captures elevated premium; exit immediately after event
-- **Buy the dip on good numbers**: If stock drops despite a beat (typical for high-valuation names), treat as accumulation opportunity within 3 sessions post-earnings
-- **Sell the rip on binary events**: For FDA decisions or index inclusions, partial profit-taking on the opening gap is prudent — anticipation premium often fully priced in
-
-### E3. Binary Event Hedges
-- **Protective puts**: For high-probability binary events (FDA decision, regulatory ruling), buy puts 1–2 strikes out-of-the-money, expiring shortly after the event date. Cost: typically 2–5% of position value.
-- **Collars**: For large existing positions, sell a covered call to finance a protective put — capping upside while limiting downside around the binary event
-- **Straddle (long)**: When implied move is below historical realized move (options are "cheap"), a long straddle profits from a larger-than-expected move in either direction
-
-### E4. Catalyst Stacking — Convergence Windows
-- Identify 2-week windows where 2 or more catalysts converge (e.g., earnings + FOMC in same week)
-- **Stacked bullish catalysts**: If both events lean bullish, the combined setup is high-conviction — size up accordingly
-- **Stacked binary or offsetting catalysts**: Increased volatility expected; reduce position sizing or hedge both directions
-- **Catalyst fatigue**: After a string of positive catalysts resolves, upside may be limited until the next catalyst cycle — consider trimming into strength
-
----
-
-## Section F — 90-Day Catalyst Heat Map
-
-Visualize catalyst density across the look-ahead window as an ASCII weekly calendar. Use block shading to indicate event intensity:
-
-```
-░░░ = Low (0–1 minor catalysts)
-██  = Medium (1–2 moderate catalysts)
-████ = HIGH (3+ catalysts or 1 major binary event)
-```
-
-**Example output format:**
-
-```
-90-Day Catalyst Heat Map — [TICKER]
-════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-
-Week 1  (Jun 23 – Jun 27):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
-Week 2  (Jun 30 – Jul  4):  ████ HIGH      — Earnings + FOMC
-Week 3  (Jul  7 – Jul 11):  ██   Medium    — CPI release
-Week 4  (Jul 14 – Jul 18):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
-Week 5  (Jul 21 – Jul 25):  ██   Medium    — Investor Day
-Week 6  (Jul 28 – Aug  1):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
-Week 7  (Aug  4 – Aug  8):  ██   Medium    — Jobs Report + FOMC minutes
-Week 8  (Aug 11 – Aug 15):  ████ HIGH      — FDA PDUFA + CPI
-Week 9  (Aug 18 – Aug 22):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
-Week 10 (Aug 25 – Aug 29):  ░░░  Low       — Quiet period
-Week 11 (Sep  1 – Sep  5):  ██   Medium    — Jobs Report
-Week 12 (Sep  8 – Sep 12):  ██   Medium    — Conference presentation
-Week 13 (Sep 15 – Sep 19):  ████ HIGH      — FOMC + index rebalancing
-
-════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-Peak Risk Window:  Jul 1 – Jul 11 (earnings + macro overlap)
-Quietest Window:   Jul 14 – Jul 25 (low catalyst density, favorable for accumulation)
-```
-
-Adjust weeks and labels to match the actual look-ahead window and identified catalysts.
-
----
-
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-**If catalyst outlook is BULLISH — it breaks if:**
-- Earnings miss by >10% AND guidance lowered
-- FOMC surprise rate hike >25bps above consensus
-- Key product launch delayed >1 quarter
-- FDA rejection or Complete Response Letter (CRL) issued
-- Index inclusion candidate excluded from rebalancing
-
-**If catalyst outlook is BEARISH — it breaks if:**
-- Major earnings beat with raised guidance
-- Positive regulatory surprise (FDA approval, contract win)
-- Index inclusion announcement
-- Activist investor disclosure or buyout rumor
-- Macro surprise (emergency rate cut, strong CPI miss to downside)
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Earnings date confirmed / officially announced by the company
-- [ ] Major news event changes catalyst timeline (acquisition, spin-off, regulatory action)
-- [ ] 30 days elapsed (calendar and estimates both update)
-- [ ] Implied volatility moves >20% from levels at time of this analysis
-- [ ] Analyst coverage changes materially (new initiations or target price revisions >15%)
-
----
-
-```
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║         INVESTMENT SIGNAL — CATALYST CALENDAR             ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Next Catalyst:   [EVENT] on [DATE]           ║
-║ 30-Day Bias:     BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH ║
-║ Catalyst Density: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Highest Impact:  [EVENT] — [±X%] expected    ║
-║ Risk Window:     [DATE RANGE]                ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
+- `references/10-persona.md` — Persona; Overview; Input; Section A — Earnings Events; Section B — Macro Catalyst Calendar
+- `references/11-section-c-company-specific.md` — Section C — Company-Specific Catalysts; Section D — Catalyst Impact Scoring Table; Section E — Event-Driven Strategy Suggestions
+- `references/12-section-f-90-day.md` — Section F — 90-Day Catalyst Heat Map; Thesis Invalidation
 
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
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