@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.7.12

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/10-catalyst-types.md

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+> 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写（取数与凭据口径），逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md；方法论、阈值与输出模板未改。
+
+# Catalyst Types
+
+Part 1 of 2 for `china-catalyst-calendar` — the five A-share catalyst families and what each one means
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Catalyst Types (A-share Specific)
+
+### 1. Earnings & Financial Reports
+
+| Event | Typical Timing | Notes |
+|-------|---------------|-------|
+| 业绩预告 (earnings preview) | 1-4 weeks before | Mandatory if variance >50% from prior |
+| 季报 (quarterly report) | 1 month after quarter-end | 10-day grace period possible |
+| 中报 (semi-annual report) | 2 months after H1 | 15-day grace period |
+| 年报 (annual report) | 4 months after year-end | Most important event of the year |
+| 业绩说明会 (earnings call) | Same day or next trading day | 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易 |
+
+### 2. Regulatory & Policy Events
+
+| Event | Impact | Typical Timing |
+|-------|--------|---------------|
+| 央行MLF/LPR操作 | High (liquidity, rates) | 15th of each month (MLF) |
+| 央行降准/降息 | Very high | Ad-hoc, 国新办发布会 |
+| 国务院政策发布 | Sector-specific | Ad-hoc |
+| 部委监管政策 (NMPA, MIIT, etc.) | Industry-specific | Ad-hoc |
+| 集采结果 (volume-based procurement) | Pharma/medtech | Quarterly cycles |
+| 行业准入政策变化 | Sector-specific | Ad-hoc |
+| 反垄断调查 | Specific companies | Ad-hoc |
+
+### 3. Corporate Events
+
+| Event | Impact | Notes |
+|-------|--------|-------|
+| 股东大会 (AGM) | Low-medium | Voting on key items |
+| 分红/送股/转增 (dividend/rights) | Medium | Ex-dividend date matters |
+| 限售股解禁 (lock-up expiry) | Medium-high | Watch large blocks |
+| 增减持公告 (shareholder transactions) | Low-medium | 5% threshold triggers disclosure |
+| 回购 (share buyback) | Low-medium | Implementation tracking |
+| 并购重组 (M&A announcements) | High | 停牌 until announcement |
+| 增发/配股 (seasoned equity) | High | Dilution impact |
+| 可转债发行/转股 | Medium | Conversion tracking |
+
+### 4. Sector / Industry Events
+
+| Event | Example Sectors | Notes |
+|-------|----------------|-------|
+| 行业展会/论坛 | 新能源, 半导体, 医药 | Networking, product announcements |
+| 政策研讨会 | 环保, 教育, 互联网 | Policy direction signals |
+| 行业协会数据发布 | 汽车, 光伏, 风电 | Monthly/quarterly stats |
+| 国际展会 (CES, IFA, etc.) | 消费电子 | New product launches |
+
+### 5. Macro Data Releases
+
+| Indicator | Frequency | Impact |
+|-----------|-----------|--------|
+| PMI (制造业/非制造业) | Monthly (1st) | Market-wide |
+| CPI / PPI | Monthly (9-10th) | Rates, commodities |
+| 社会融资规模 / M2 | Monthly (10-15th) | Liquidity |
+| 外汇储备 | Monthly | FX sentiment |
+| 工业增加值 | Monthly | Growth indicator |
+| 零售数据 | Monthly | Consumption |
+| 就业数据 | Quarterly | Labor market |

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/11-workflow-and-calendar.md

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+> 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写（取数与凭据口径），逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md；方法论、阈值与输出模板未改。
+
+# Workflow, Calendar Format, Integration
+
+Part 2 of 2 for `china-catalyst-calendar` — building and maintaining the calendar, the output views, and how it pairs with other skills
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Define Coverage Universe
+
+Identify the stocks and sectors to track. Typical A-share coverage universe:
+- 50-200 names
+- Organized by sector/industry
+- Priority tiers (P1 = must-track, P2 = watchlist)
+
+### Step 2: Build Calendar Entries
+
+**For each catalyst, record:**
+
+```json
+{
+  "date": "2024-04-25",
+  "type": "earnings",
+  "subtype": "季报",
+  "ticker": "{{TICKER}}",
+  "company": "{{COMPANY_NAME}}",
+  "importance": "high",
+  "notes": "Q1 2024 results; watch 批价 and inventory",
+  "status": "confirmed"
+}
+```
+
+**Catalyst types in JSON:**
+- `earnings` — quarterly/semi/annual reports
+- `earnings_call` — 业绩说明会
+- `regulatory` — 监管政策发布
+- `policy` — 宏观政策 (央行, 国务院)
+- `corporate` — 公司事件 (分红, 解禁, M&A)
+- `macro_data` — 经济数据发布
+- `sector_event` — 行业展会/论坛
+- `lockup_expiry` — 限售股解禁
+
+### Step 3: Prioritize Catalysts
+
+**Importance levels:**
+- **Critical**: Likely to move stock >10% (earnings, M&A, major policy)
+- **High**: Likely to move stock 5-10% (regulatory decisions, industry data)
+- **Medium**: Watch item, context-setting (dividend, conference participation)
+- **Low**: Background noise (routine filings, minor announcements)
+
+### Step 4: Pre-Catalyst Preparation
+
+**1 week before critical catalysts:**
+- Pull latest data and consensus
+- Prepare scenario analysis
+- Draft preliminary positioning note
+- Alert stakeholders if high-impact
+
+**1 day before critical catalysts:**
+- Final data check
+- Confirm release timing (morning vs afternoon)
+- Prepare pre-market positioning note
+- Set monitoring alerts
+
+### Step 5: Post-Catalyst Update
+
+After catalyst passes:
+- Record actual outcome
+- Compare vs scenario framework
+- Update price target / thesis if material
+- Move to "completed" section
+- Flag next catalyst in queue
+
+## Calendar Format
+
+### Weekly View
+
+```
+【本周催化剂日历】[YYYY-MM-DD 至 YYYY-MM-DD]
+
+周一 [Date]
+  - [Time] [Ticker] [Company] — [Event type] — [Importance]
+  - [Time] [Macro event] — [Impact assessment]
+
+周二 [Date]
+  ...
+
+本周重点：
+- [Top 2-3 catalysts to watch]
+- [Market-wide risk events]
+```
+
+### Monthly View
+
+```
+【X月重要事件日历】
+
+财报窗口:
+- [Week 1]: [Sector] Q[X] results: [List of companies]
+- [Week 2]: [Sector] Q[X] results: [List of companies]
+
+政策窗口:
+- [Date]: [Policy event] — [Expected impact]
+
+解禁窗口:
+- [Date]: [Ticker] — [Amount] shares unlocking — [Risk assessment]
+
+宏观数据:
+- [Date]: [Indicator] — [Consensus] — [Previous]
+```
+
+### Upcoming Catalysts Table
+
+| Date | Company | Event | Importance | Watch Item |
+|------|---------|-------|------------|------------|
+| {{DATE}} | {{COMPANY_NAME}} ({{TICKER}}) | {{EVENT_TYPE}} | {{IMPORTANCE}} | {{WATCH_ITEMS}} |
+| Example | 贵州茅台 (600519) | Q1 年报 | Critical | 批价, 动销 |
+| 04-30 | 工信部 | 新能源车月度数据 | Medium | 销量, 渗透率 |
+
+## Integration with Other Skills
+
+| Related Skill | Integration Point |
+|---------------|-------------------|
+| china-earnings-analysis | Post-earnings catalyst review |
+| china-earnings-preview | Pre-earnings scenario setup |
+| china-thesis-tracker | Catalyst milestone tracking |
+| china-morning-note | Daily catalyst briefing |
+| china-market-researcher | Sector catalyst themes |
+
+A skill named above is an option for the user, not a step this role can take: only the skills the user switched on exist in this session, and what this plugin deliberately does not offer — placing or amending an order on the user's behalf — is not reachable at all. Say what you would check next and let the user decide.

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/SKILL.md

@@ -36,201 +36,6 @@ A screen is a set of conditions applied to numbers somebody else handed back, an
 这几档同样按"要哪个字段"写进 brief，由检索侧决定去哪儿取；哪一档没回来就在筛选记录里写明它缺席，
 不许凭印象把它算进或排除。北向那一档按宿主返回的口径转述——实时买卖明细已停止披露，别写成"净买入"。
 
-## Workflow
-
-### Step 1: Define Screen Criteria
-
-**Investment philosophy alignment:**
-- Value vs Growth vs GARP vs Momentum
-- Market cap preference (large / mid / small)
-- Sector focus or sector-agnostic
-- Liquidity requirements (turnover threshold)
-- Risk tolerance (volatility, leverage, earnings stability)
-
-**Screen parameters (A-share specific):**
-
-| Parameter | Typical Range | Notes |
-|-----------|--------------|-------|
-| PE (TTM) | 5-50x | Avoid negative PE |
-| PB | 0.5-5x | <1x may indicate distress |
-| PS | 0.5-5x | For high-growth unprofitable |
-| Market cap | >50亿 | Liquidity threshold |
-| Daily turnover | >5000万 | Tradability |
-| ROE | >10% | Quality filter |
-| Debt/Equity | <100% | Financial health |
-| Revenue growth | >10% | Growth filter |
-| EPS growth | >15% | Earnings momentum |
-
-### Step 2: Quantitative Screens
-
-**Screen 1: Deep Value (深度价值)**
-
-```
-Filters:
-- PE (TTM) < 15x AND PB < 1.5x
-- ROE > 10% (past 3 years average)
-- Debt/Equity < 80%
-- Revenue growth > 0% (not declining)
-- Market cap > 30亿
-
-Output: Value candidates with potential mispricing
-```
-
-**Screen 2: Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP)**
-
-```
-Filters:
-- PEG < 1.0 (PE / growth rate)
-- Revenue growth > 20%
-- Gross margin > 30%
-- ROE > 15%
-- Market cap > 100亿
-
-Output: Quality growth at reasonable multiples
-```
-
-**Screen 3: Momentum (趋势跟踪)**
-
-```
-Filters:
-- Price above 20-day MA AND 60-day MA
-- Price within 10% of 52-week high
-- Volume above 20-day average
-- RSI between 40-70 (not overbought)
-- Upward earnings revision
-
-Output: Momentum names in uptrends
-```
-
-**Screen 4: Turnaround (困境反转)**
-
-```
-Filters:
-- Recent loss or margin compression
-- New management / strategy announced
-- Order book recovering
-- Debt restructuring completed
-- Insiders buying
-
-Output: Potential turnaround candidates
-```
-
-**Screen 5: Dividend Yield (高股息)**
-
-```
-Filters:
-- Dividend yield > 3%
-- Payout ratio < 60%
-- FCF positive and stable
-- Debt/Equity < 100%
-- Stable earnings history
-
-Output: High-quality income names
-```
-
-**Screen 6: Special Situations (事件驱动)**
-
-```
-Filters:
-- Lock-up expiry within 3 months (限售解禁)
-- M&A announcement pending
-- Regulatory catalyst (集采结果, etc.)
-- Index inclusion/exclusion
-- STAR/ChiNext eligibility
-
-Output: Event-driven opportunities
-```
-
-### Step 3: Thematic Research
-
-**Identify emerging themes:**
-
-| Theme Type | Examples (A-share) | Data Sources |
-|-----------|-------------------|-------------|
-| Policy-driven | 国产替代, 新基建, 双碳 | 政策文件, 部委公告 |
-| Technology | AI应用, 自动驾驶, 机器人 | 技术进展, 订单公告 |
-| Demographics | 老龄化, 少子化 | 人口数据, 消费数据 |
-| Consumption | 消费升级, 国货崛起 | 零售数据, 品牌调研 |
-| Industrial | 高端制造, 专精特新 | 行业数据, 政策 |
-
-**Thematic screening approach:**
-1. Define theme and investable universe
-2. Map A-share companies to theme
-3. Rank by exposure and quality
-4. Identify pure-plays vs beneficiaries
-
-### Step 4: Technical Analysis
-
-**A-share technical considerations:**
-
-| Indicator | Use |
-|-----------|-----|
-| 均线 (Moving averages) | Trend direction (5/10/20/60/120 day) |
-| MACD | Momentum and trend changes |
-| RSI | Overbought/oversold |
-| KDJ | Short-term momentum |
-| 成交量 (Volume) | Confirmation of moves |
-| 龙虎榜 | Institutional activity |
-| 北向资金 | Foreign flows |
-
-**Chart patterns to watch:**
-- 突破 (breakout) — above resistance
-- 回踩 (pullback to support) — entry opportunity
-- 双底/头肩 (double bottom/head & shoulders) — reversal signals
-- 量价背离 (volume-price divergence) — trend exhaustion
-
-### Step 5: Fundamental Deep Dive
-
-**For each candidate:**
-
-1. **Business model review**: How does company make money?
-2. **Financial health**: Balance sheet, cash flow, earnings quality
-3. **Competitive position**: Market share, moat, pricing power
-4. **Management quality**: Track record, capital allocation
-5. **Valuation**: vs peers, vs history, vs international peers
-6. **Catalyst**: What could re-rate the stock?
-
-**Red flag checklist:**
-- 商誉占比过高 (>30% of equity)
-- 应收账款增速 > 收入增速
-- 经营现金流持续为负
-- 大股东质押比例过高 (>50%)
-- 审计意见非标准无保留
-- 频繁变更会计师事务所
-- 关联交易占比高
-
-### Step 6: Build the Ideas List
-
-**Standard format:**
-
-| Rank | Ticker | Company | Sector | Idea Type | Thesis | Catalyst | Risk | Conviction |
-|------|--------|---------|-------|-----------|--------|----------|------|------------|
-| {{RANK}} | {{TICKER}} | {{COMPANY_NAME}} | {{SECTOR}} | {{DIRECTION}} | {{THESIS}} | {{CATALYST}} | {{RISK}} | {{CONVICTION}} |
-| Example | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 白酒 | Long | 批价稳+动销旺+分红高 | Q1业绩超预期 | 批价下行 | High |
-| 2 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
-
-**Conviction levels:**
-- **High**: Strong thesis, clear catalyst, limited downside
-- **Medium**: Good thesis, catalyst timeline uncertain
-- **Low**: Exploratory, needs more research
-
-清单里的 Idea Type（Long / Short）、信念档与后面那条仓位设想，是把筛选结果写成一个结论的**推演练习**：
-本插件没有券商接口，不据它下单，也不会替你建任何一笔仓；它同样不去替你决定这笔做不做。
-
-### Step 7: Monitor & Update
-
-**Ongoing tracking:**
-- Weekly price and news updates
-- Catalyst tracking（事件日期与是否落地，逐条复查）
-- Thesis validation / invalidation
-- Position sizing recommendations（若使用者要一个仓位，按宿主的风险预算口径把算式写出来给他看，不落成订单）
-
-**Update triggers:**
-- Earnings results
-- Material news (M&A, guidance, regulation)
-- Price moves >15% in a week
-- Thesis breaking or confirming
-
 ## China-Specific Screening Considerations
 
 ### Market Structure
@@ -279,3 +84,17 @@ Before delivering ideas list:
 - [ ] Regulatory/compliance review passed
 
 > 取数档位（接哪家数据服务、用哪个密钥）由宿主的凭据域决定：这份选股清单不配置它，也不向使用者索取凭据。
+
+## Read the Parts
+
+Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. Open a part with `read`,
+resolved against this skill's base directory; each part is sized to arrive complete in one
+`read`. If a receipt shows `[... tool result middle pruned ...]`, re-read it with `offset`
+before concluding anything is missing.
+
+- `references/10-workflow.md` — Workflow
+
+Loading this file is not reading the skill: the steps, templates, and thresholds exist only
+in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not, and never report a
+step or a template you have not read in this session.
+

package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/references/10-workflow.md

@@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
+> 本文件相对上游 `d7585ca` 快照做过合规改写（取数与凭据口径），逐条记在快照根目录的 UPSTREAM.md；方法论、阈值与输出模板未改。
+
+# Workflow
+
+Part 1 of 1 for `china-idea-generation` — the seven screening steps, from defining the universe to maintaining the ideas list
+See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Define Screen Criteria
+
+**Investment philosophy alignment:**
+- Value vs Growth vs GARP vs Momentum
+- Market cap preference (large / mid / small)
+- Sector focus or sector-agnostic
+- Liquidity requirements (turnover threshold)
+- Risk tolerance (volatility, leverage, earnings stability)
+
+**Screen parameters (A-share specific):**
+
+| Parameter | Typical Range | Notes |
+|-----------|--------------|-------|
+| PE (TTM) | 5-50x | Avoid negative PE |
+| PB | 0.5-5x | <1x may indicate distress |
+| PS | 0.5-5x | For high-growth unprofitable |
+| Market cap | >50亿 | Liquidity threshold |
+| Daily turnover | >5000万 | Tradability |
+| ROE | >10% | Quality filter |
+| Debt/Equity | <100% | Financial health |
+| Revenue growth | >10% | Growth filter |
+| EPS growth | >15% | Earnings momentum |
+
+### Step 2: Quantitative Screens
+
+**Screen 1: Deep Value (深度价值)**
+
+```
+Filters:
+- PE (TTM) < 15x AND PB < 1.5x
+- ROE > 10% (past 3 years average)
+- Debt/Equity < 80%
+- Revenue growth > 0% (not declining)
+- Market cap > 30亿
+
+Output: Value candidates with potential mispricing
+```
+
+**Screen 2: Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP)**
+
+```
+Filters:
+- PEG < 1.0 (PE / growth rate)
+- Revenue growth > 20%
+- Gross margin > 30%
+- ROE > 15%
+- Market cap > 100亿
+
+Output: Quality growth at reasonable multiples
+```
+
+**Screen 3: Momentum (趋势跟踪)**
+
+```
+Filters:
+- Price above 20-day MA AND 60-day MA
+- Price within 10% of 52-week high
+- Volume above 20-day average
+- RSI between 40-70 (not overbought)
+- Upward earnings revision
+
+Output: Momentum names in uptrends
+```
+
+**Screen 4: Turnaround (困境反转)**
+
+```
+Filters:
+- Recent loss or margin compression
+- New management / strategy announced
+- Order book recovering
+- Debt restructuring completed
+- Insiders buying
+
+Output: Potential turnaround candidates
+```
+
+**Screen 5: Dividend Yield (高股息)**
+
+```
+Filters:
+- Dividend yield > 3%
+- Payout ratio < 60%
+- FCF positive and stable
+- Debt/Equity < 100%
+- Stable earnings history
+
+Output: High-quality income names
+```
+
+**Screen 6: Special Situations (事件驱动)**
+
+```
+Filters:
+- Lock-up expiry within 3 months (限售解禁)
+- M&A announcement pending
+- Regulatory catalyst (集采结果, etc.)
+- Index inclusion/exclusion
+- STAR/ChiNext eligibility
+
+Output: Event-driven opportunities
+```
+
+### Step 3: Thematic Research
+
+**Identify emerging themes:**
+
+| Theme Type | Examples (A-share) | Data Sources |
+|-----------|-------------------|-------------|
+| Policy-driven | 国产替代, 新基建, 双碳 | 政策文件, 部委公告 |
+| Technology | AI应用, 自动驾驶, 机器人 | 技术进展, 订单公告 |
+| Demographics | 老龄化, 少子化 | 人口数据, 消费数据 |
+| Consumption | 消费升级, 国货崛起 | 零售数据, 品牌调研 |
+| Industrial | 高端制造, 专精特新 | 行业数据, 政策 |
+
+**Thematic screening approach:**
+1. Define theme and investable universe
+2. Map A-share companies to theme
+3. Rank by exposure and quality
+4. Identify pure-plays vs beneficiaries
+
+### Step 4: Technical Analysis
+
+**A-share technical considerations:**
+
+| Indicator | Use |
+|-----------|-----|
+| 均线 (Moving averages) | Trend direction (5/10/20/60/120 day) |
+| MACD | Momentum and trend changes |
+| RSI | Overbought/oversold |
+| KDJ | Short-term momentum |
+| 成交量 (Volume) | Confirmation of moves |
+| 龙虎榜 | Institutional activity |
+| 北向资金 | Foreign flows |
+
+**Chart patterns to watch:**
+- 突破 (breakout) — above resistance
+- 回踩 (pullback to support) — entry opportunity
+- 双底/头肩 (double bottom/head & shoulders) — reversal signals
+- 量价背离 (volume-price divergence) — trend exhaustion
+
+### Step 5: Fundamental Deep Dive
+
+**For each candidate:**
+
+1. **Business model review**: How does company make money?
+2. **Financial health**: Balance sheet, cash flow, earnings quality
+3. **Competitive position**: Market share, moat, pricing power
+4. **Management quality**: Track record, capital allocation
+5. **Valuation**: vs peers, vs history, vs international peers
+6. **Catalyst**: What could re-rate the stock?
+
+**Red flag checklist:**
+- 商誉占比过高 (>30% of equity)
+- 应收账款增速 > 收入增速
+- 经营现金流持续为负
+- 大股东质押比例过高 (>50%)
+- 审计意见非标准无保留
+- 频繁变更会计师事务所
+- 关联交易占比高
+
+### Step 6: Build the Ideas List
+
+**Standard format:**
+
+| Rank | Ticker | Company | Sector | Idea Type | Thesis | Catalyst | Risk | Conviction |
+|------|--------|---------|-------|-----------|--------|----------|------|------------|
+| {{RANK}} | {{TICKER}} | {{COMPANY_NAME}} | {{SECTOR}} | {{DIRECTION}} | {{THESIS}} | {{CATALYST}} | {{RISK}} | {{CONVICTION}} |
+| Example | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 白酒 | Long | 批价稳+动销旺+分红高 | Q1业绩超预期 | 批价下行 | High |
+| 2 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Conviction levels:**
+- **High**: Strong thesis, clear catalyst, limited downside
+- **Medium**: Good thesis, catalyst timeline uncertain
+- **Low**: Exploratory, needs more research
+
+清单里的 Idea Type（Long / Short）、信念档与后面那条仓位设想，是把筛选结果写成一个结论的**推演练习**：
+本插件没有券商接口，不据它下单，也不会替你建任何一笔仓；它同样不去替你决定这笔做不做。
+
+### Step 7: Monitor & Update
+
+**Ongoing tracking:**
+- Weekly price and news updates
+- Catalyst tracking（事件日期与是否落地，逐条复查）
+- Thesis validation / invalidation
+- Position sizing recommendations（若使用者要一个仓位，按宿主的风险预算口径把算式写出来给他看，不落成订单）
+
+**Update triggers:**
+- Earnings results
+- Material news (M&A, guidance, regulation)
+- Price moves >15% in a week
+- Thesis breaking or confirming