@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.7.12
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/CHANGELOG.md +48 -3
- package/README.md +3 -2
- package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
- package/config/package.json +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
- package/package.json +1 -1
- package/preset/capital-generation/agent.patch.yml +6 -3
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-profile/SKILL.md +177 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-protocol/SKILL.md +11 -269
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-query/SKILL.md +109 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-equity-research/SKILL.md +2 -2
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-orchestration/SKILL.md +3 -2
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-evidence/SKILL.md +134 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-protocol/SKILL.md +10 -130
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/SKILL.md +11 -152
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/10-analysis-framework.md +75 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/11-output-and-signal.md +51 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md +44 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/SKILL.md +11 -177
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/10-scoring-framework.md +85 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/11-output-format.md +58 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/12-invalidation-and-signal.md +51 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +16 -184
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/10-catalyst-types.md +64 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/11-workflow-and-calendar.md +131 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/SKILL.md +14 -195
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/references/10-workflow.md +201 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/SKILL.md +15 -156
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/references/10-workflow.md +161 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/SKILL.md +31 -122
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{01-decision-posture.md → 01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md} +0 -119
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/01-decision-posture-D05-D09.md +123 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/02-business-economics-B01-B03.md +94 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{02-business-economics.md → 02-business-economics-B04-B07.md} +3 -93
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{03-management-governance.md → 03-management-governance-M01-M04.md} +0 -93
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/03-management-governance-M05-M08.md +97 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/04-financial-reality-F01-F03.md +95 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{04-financial-reality.md → 04-financial-reality-F04-F07.md} +3 -94
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{05-valuation.md → 05-valuation-V01-V03.md} +0 -72
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/05-valuation-V04-V06.md +76 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{06-capital-allocation.md → 06-capital-allocation-C01-C04.md} +0 -115
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/06-capital-allocation-C05-C09.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{07-risk-monitoring.md → 07-risk-monitoring-R01-R03.md} +0 -94
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/07-risk-monitoring-R04-R07.md +98 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S01-S03.md +99 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S04-S06.md +72 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S07-S09.md +74 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S10-S12.md +76 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/09-workflows.md +96 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/10-method.md +12 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/11-deterministic-router.md +11 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/SKILL.md +10 -86
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/10-workflow.md +94 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-1.md +220 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-2.md +146 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-3.md +114 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-4.md +113 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology.md +8 -521
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-1.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-2.md +82 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-3.md +158 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-4.md +123 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research.md +8 -454
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-1.md +155 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-2.md +43 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology.md +6 -180
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-1.md +114 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-2.md +180 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-3.md +92 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research.md +7 -359
- package/watchlist/package.json +1 -1
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays.md +0 -309
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The source tiers
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The source tiers in `references/10-workflow.md` (aggregator profile pages, SEC / regulator filings, annual reports) are US and overseas-listing conventions. In an A-share session the same analysis must be asked for in A-share terms instead — disclosure platforms, no Form 4 / 13F, no wash-sale rules — and that is decided by the host's retrieval channel, not by this skill.
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Do **not** ask the user for an annual report PDF or API keys.
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##
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## Read the Parts
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Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. Open a part with `read`,
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resolved against this skill's base directory; each part is sized to arrive complete in one
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`read`. If a receipt shows `[... tool result middle pruned ...]`, re-read it with `offset`
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before concluding anything is missing.
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Task Progress:
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```
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- `references/10-workflow.md` — Workflow overview; Research brief; Failure handling
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Loading this file is not reading the skill: the steps, templates, and thresholds exist only
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in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not, and never report a
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Select **Quick** or **Deep** using the routing table above.
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- **Quick:** [references/quick/web-research.md](references/quick/web-research.md)
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- **Deep:** [references/deep/web-research.md](references/deep/web-research.md)
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1. Follow the **workflow-specific** source plan, retrieval brief, stopping rule, and research brief template in `references/quick/web-research.md` or `references/deep/web-research.md`.
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2. Respect the workflow-specific default budgets unless an override in that workflow guide is triggered — the budget is how many sources you ask the channel for, not how many you go and open yourself:
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- **Quick:** practical default of 1-3 reputable aggregator sources, 2-3 retrieval queries, and 2-3 page fetches; expand only when another aggregator is needed to complete the existing Quick methodology.
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- **Deep:** 5-7 sources, 6-8 retrieval queries, 7-10 page/document fetches, with the default source set kept as small as the report can support.
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3. For **Quick**: gather the minimum viable evidence needed for a responsible SKIP / WATCHLIST / DEEP RESEARCH decision, then stop.
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4. For **Deep**: follow the annual report discovery procedure in `references/deep/web-research.md` — ask for the latest full annual report on the company's investor relations site (HTML or PDF); regulator filings are the fallback.
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5. Do not ask for a separate retrieval per fiscal year for normal historical metrics. For Quick, use aggregator tables. For Deep, use the annual report, 10-K / 20-F, regulator filing, or regulator facts feed as the historical base.
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6. Do not print research narration, retrieval play-by-play, or the full research brief unless the user asks for it.
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7. Capture period, currency, units, date gathered, and source ID(s) for every important number and claim. Each source ID must resolve to a URL in the Source Ledger. Filing labels may be included, but they do not replace a ledger URL.
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### Step 5: Write report
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```
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Data gathered: YYYY-MM-DD
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## Research brief
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{full research brief markdown}
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```
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### Step 6: Append disclaimer
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## Failure handling
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- If the host's retrieval path returns nothing for a field you need: name the missing fields and stop the analysis that depends on them — do not fabricate data.
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- If the annual report cannot be found after all fallbacks in `references/deep/web-research.md`: note the gap in the research brief and proceed using other verified sources — do **not** ask the user for a PDF.
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- If a specific metric is unverified: say you do not know; do not estimate or invent numbers.
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- If live market data cannot be verified from the current source: for Quick, ask the channel for another reputable aggregator; for Deep, use the workflow's market-data fallback rules. Do not use stale or unsourced values.
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# Workflow and Research Brief
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Part 1 of 1 for `peter-lynch-skill` — the six steps, the research brief template, and failure handling
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See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
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## Workflow overview
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Copy this checklist and track progress:
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```
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Task Progress:
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- [ ] Step 3: Gather data and compile structured research brief
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- [ ] Step 4: Read workflow prompts
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- [ ] Step 5: Write report from the brief only
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- [ ] Step 6: Append disclaimer
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```
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### Step 1: Route
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Select **Quick** or **Deep** using the routing table above.
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### Step 2: Read workflow-specific web research guide
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- **Quick:** [references/quick/web-research.md](references/quick/web-research.md)
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- **Deep:** [references/deep/web-research.md](references/deep/web-research.md)
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Read [references/filing-rules.md](references/filing-rules.md) only when regulator/XBRL data, ADRs, secondary listings, specialized financial companies, or accounting-basis issues matter. Do not read it for normal Quick Research unless the Quick web guide specifically triggers it.
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### Step 3: Gather data and compile research brief
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Asking the host's own retrieval path for the data (in a host that splits roles: delegate it with the brief, do not browse from here):
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1. Follow the **workflow-specific** source plan, retrieval brief, stopping rule, and research brief template in `references/quick/web-research.md` or `references/deep/web-research.md`.
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2. Respect the workflow-specific default budgets unless an override in that workflow guide is triggered — the budget is how many sources you ask the channel for, not how many you go and open yourself:
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- **Quick:** practical default of 1-3 reputable aggregator sources, 2-3 retrieval queries, and 2-3 page fetches; expand only when another aggregator is needed to complete the existing Quick methodology.
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- **Deep:** 5-7 sources, 6-8 retrieval queries, 7-10 page/document fetches, with the default source set kept as small as the report can support.
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3. For **Quick**: gather the minimum viable evidence needed for a responsible SKIP / WATCHLIST / DEEP RESEARCH decision, then stop.
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4. For **Deep**: follow the annual report discovery procedure in `references/deep/web-research.md` — ask for the latest full annual report on the company's investor relations site (HTML or PDF); regulator filings are the fallback.
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5. Do not ask for a separate retrieval per fiscal year for normal historical metrics. For Quick, use aggregator tables. For Deep, use the annual report, 10-K / 20-F, regulator filing, or regulator facts feed as the historical base.
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6. Do not print research narration, retrieval play-by-play, or the full research brief unless the user asks for it.
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7. Capture period, currency, units, date gathered, and source ID(s) for every important number and claim. Each source ID must resolve to a URL in the Source Ledger. Filing labels may be included, but they do not replace a ledger URL.
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8. Do **not** invent financial data.
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### Step 4: Read workflow prompts
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+
**Quick path** — read both before writing:
|
|
51
|
+
|
|
52
|
+
- [references/quick/system-prompt.md](references/quick/system-prompt.md)
|
|
53
|
+
- [references/quick/methodology.md](references/quick/methodology.md)
|
|
54
|
+
|
|
55
|
+
**Deep path** — read both before writing:
|
|
56
|
+
|
|
57
|
+
- [references/deep/system-prompt.md](references/deep/system-prompt.md)
|
|
58
|
+
- [references/deep/methodology.md](references/deep/methodology.md)
|
|
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|
+
|
|
60
|
+
### Step 5: Write report
|
|
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|
+
|
|
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|
+
Use the research brief as the only factual context for the report. Do not include the full research brief in the final report unless the user asks for it.
|
|
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+
|
|
64
|
+
Every final report must cite sources with links:
|
|
65
|
+
|
|
66
|
+
- Any company description, financial number, valuation metric, market data point, management claim, industry claim, competitor claim, ownership claim, or news/update claim needs a source.
|
|
67
|
+
- Use source lines directly below the relevant bullet or paragraph: `source: [Source name](https://...)`.
|
|
68
|
+
- Multiple sources may be separated with semicolons.
|
|
69
|
+
- Do not cite a source that is not in the research brief Source Ledger.
|
|
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|
+
- Expand any internal source IDs from the brief into full linked `source:` lines in the final report.
|
|
71
|
+
- Source lines do not count toward Quick or Deep word limits.
|
|
72
|
+
|
|
73
|
+
Internally prefix the analysis context with:
|
|
74
|
+
|
|
75
|
+
```
|
|
76
|
+
Data gathered: YYYY-MM-DD
|
|
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|
+
|
|
78
|
+
## Research brief
|
|
79
|
+
|
|
80
|
+
{full research brief markdown}
|
|
81
|
+
```
|
|
82
|
+
|
|
83
|
+
### Step 6: Append disclaimer
|
|
84
|
+
|
|
85
|
+
Read [references/disclaimer.md](references/disclaimer.md) only when the report body is ready. After the report body, add a horizontal rule and append the full contents of the disclaimer.
|
|
86
|
+
|
|
87
|
+
## Failure handling
|
|
88
|
+
|
|
89
|
+
- If the host's retrieval path returns nothing for a field you need: name the missing fields and stop the analysis that depends on them — do not fabricate data.
|
|
90
|
+
- If a ticker cannot be resolved: inform the user clearly.
|
|
91
|
+
- If the annual report cannot be found after all fallbacks in `references/deep/web-research.md`: note the gap in the research brief and proceed using other verified sources — do **not** ask the user for a PDF.
|
|
92
|
+
- If a specific metric is unverified: say you do not know; do not estimate or invent numbers.
|
|
93
|
+
- If retrieved claims lack source ID(s) that resolve to Source Ledger URL(s): do not include them in the report.
|
|
94
|
+
- If live market data cannot be verified from the current source: for Quick, ask the channel for another reputable aggregator; for Deep, use the workflow's market-data fallback rules. Do not use stale or unsourced values.
|
package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-1.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,220 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
## 1) Business Model and Understandability
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
**Output format: maximum 400 words**
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
### 1.1 Business Model in Plain Language
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
Answer:
|
|
8
|
+
- What does the company actually sell?
|
|
9
|
+
- Who are the main customers?
|
|
10
|
+
- How does the company make money?
|
|
11
|
+
- In which geographies does the company operate?
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
Write this so a 12-year-old could understand it.
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
### 1.2 Business Structure Analysis
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
- First, analyze earnings (profit) structure by segment and product if data is available.
|
|
18
|
+
|
|
19
|
+
- If segment-level profit data is available:
|
|
20
|
+
- show % contribution to total operating income or net income
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
- If not available:
|
|
23
|
+
- fall back to revenue structure (with %)
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
- Highlight:
|
|
26
|
+
- the most profitable segment and product
|
|
27
|
+
- whether profits are concentrated or diversified
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
### 1.3 Hype Check
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
- Is the business thesis based on real business performance or just hype?
|
|
32
|
+
- If the exciting product/division is **<10% of total revenue**, question whether it can meaningfully drive EPS.
|
|
33
|
+
|
|
34
|
+
**Warning:**
|
|
35
|
+
If the thesis relies on a revolutionary technology, miracle drug, or “next big thing” narrative without meaningful current revenue contribution, apply extreme skepticism.
|
|
36
|
+
|
|
37
|
+
### 1.4 Earnings Drivers: Controllable vs External
|
|
38
|
+
|
|
39
|
+
Identify **1–4 key current earnings drivers** and the drivers expected to shape future earnings.
|
|
40
|
+
|
|
41
|
+
For each driver:
|
|
42
|
+
- briefly describe it
|
|
43
|
+
- label it as:
|
|
44
|
+
- **Mostly controllable** — mainly influenced by management decisions
|
|
45
|
+
- **Mostly external** — mainly driven by market, macro, commodity, regulation, or industry conditions
|
|
46
|
+
|
|
47
|
+
Guideline: stability and continuity of earnings drivers are preferred because they improve predictability.
|
|
48
|
+
|
|
49
|
+
### 1.5 Business Understandability Check
|
|
50
|
+
|
|
51
|
+
Classify business complexity:
|
|
52
|
+
|
|
53
|
+
- **Easy** — simple business model; revenue drivers and risks are clear
|
|
54
|
+
- **Moderate** — some industry-specific metrics or dynamics require extra work
|
|
55
|
+
- **Hard** — complexity, regulation, accounting, or technical factors materially affect valuation
|
|
56
|
+
|
|
57
|
+
If classified as **Hard**, explicitly state what must be understood before investing.
|
|
58
|
+
|
|
59
|
+
### 1.6 Investment Story & Invalidation Conditions
|
|
60
|
+
|
|
61
|
+
- What is the one-sentence thesis for this business?
|
|
62
|
+
- What are **2–3 conditions** that would kill the thesis? Use a numeric list.
|
|
63
|
+
- How will you track whether the story is unfolding?
|
|
64
|
+
|
|
65
|
+
## 2) Diagnostic Profile (No Single Category)
|
|
66
|
+
|
|
67
|
+
**Output format: maximum 250 words**
|
|
68
|
+
|
|
69
|
+
Report the following traits independently.
|
|
70
|
+
For each trait, give:
|
|
71
|
+
- **State**
|
|
72
|
+
- **Conviction**: Low / Medium / High
|
|
73
|
+
- **Evidence**: 1 short sentence
|
|
74
|
+
|
|
75
|
+
Use this compact bullet format:
|
|
76
|
+
|
|
77
|
+
- Cyclicality: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
|
|
78
|
+
- Turnaround status: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
|
|
79
|
+
- Growth profile: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
|
|
80
|
+
- Business maturity: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
|
|
81
|
+
- Asset angle: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
|
|
82
|
+
- Dominant analytical lenses: [list up to 2 traits that should dominate the rest of the analysis]
|
|
83
|
+
|
|
84
|
+
### 2.1 Cyclicality
|
|
85
|
+
|
|
86
|
+
States:
|
|
87
|
+
- **High**
|
|
88
|
+
- **Moderate**
|
|
89
|
+
- **Low**
|
|
90
|
+
|
|
91
|
+
Rules:
|
|
92
|
+
- **High** if:
|
|
93
|
+
- at least **2 full EPS cycles** in the last 10 years (**peak → trough → peak**),
|
|
94
|
+
- peaks had positive EPS,
|
|
95
|
+
- swings were **≥30%**
|
|
96
|
+
- **Moderate** if:
|
|
97
|
+
- 1 clear cycle, or
|
|
98
|
+
- repeated earnings swings of roughly **15–30%**, or
|
|
99
|
+
- the industry is clearly cyclical but the financial history is too short for a High rating
|
|
100
|
+
- **Low** otherwise
|
|
101
|
+
|
|
102
|
+
### 2.2 Turnaround Status
|
|
103
|
+
|
|
104
|
+
States:
|
|
105
|
+
- **None**
|
|
106
|
+
- **Active**
|
|
107
|
+
- **Recovering**
|
|
108
|
+
|
|
109
|
+
Rules:
|
|
110
|
+
- **Active** if any of the following are true:
|
|
111
|
+
- EPS declined **2+ consecutive years**
|
|
112
|
+
- revenue contracted **>5%** and margins compressed
|
|
113
|
+
- EPS is **≥30% below prior peak**
|
|
114
|
+
- and the deterioration is **not mainly normal cyclicality**
|
|
115
|
+
- **Recovering** if the business recently met Active criteria but revenue, margins, or EPS have now stabilized or started improving
|
|
116
|
+
- **None** otherwise
|
|
117
|
+
|
|
118
|
+
### 2.3 Growth Profile
|
|
119
|
+
|
|
120
|
+
States:
|
|
121
|
+
- **Fast**
|
|
122
|
+
- **Stalwart-like**
|
|
123
|
+
- **Slow**
|
|
124
|
+
- **Moderate/Other**
|
|
125
|
+
- **Declining**
|
|
126
|
+
|
|
127
|
+
Rules:
|
|
128
|
+
- **Fast** if:
|
|
129
|
+
- **2Y EPS CAGR ≥20%**
|
|
130
|
+
- revenue growth confirms
|
|
131
|
+
- growth is **not mainly a cyclical rebound**
|
|
132
|
+
- growth is **not merely recovery from a distressed base**
|
|
133
|
+
- **Stalwart-like** if:
|
|
134
|
+
- **2Y EPS CAGR = 8–12%**
|
|
135
|
+
- margins are stable
|
|
136
|
+
- no 2-year EPS decline
|
|
137
|
+
- no revenue contraction >5%
|
|
138
|
+
- and cyclicality is **not High**
|
|
139
|
+
- **Slow** if:
|
|
140
|
+
- **2Y EPS CAGR = 2–5%**
|
|
141
|
+
- and the business appears **large/mature**
|
|
142
|
+
- and there is no obvious distress
|
|
143
|
+
- **Moderate/Other** if results fall between bands or are mixed
|
|
144
|
+
- **Declining** if EPS CAGR is below 2% or negative
|
|
145
|
+
|
|
146
|
+
**Guardrail:** If EPS growth is mostly from buybacks, cost cutting, or recovery off a depressed base, say growth quality is weaker.
|
|
147
|
+
|
|
148
|
+
### 2.4 Business Maturity
|
|
149
|
+
|
|
150
|
+
States:
|
|
151
|
+
- **Early**
|
|
152
|
+
- **Scaling**
|
|
153
|
+
- **Mature**
|
|
154
|
+
|
|
155
|
+
Rules:
|
|
156
|
+
- **Early** — still proving the model; concentrated geography/product; evidence base limited
|
|
157
|
+
- **Scaling** — model proven and expanding into more markets/products; meaningful whitespace remains
|
|
158
|
+
- **Mature** — broad penetration, lower whitespace, and capital allocation/dividends/buybacks matter more
|
|
159
|
+
|
|
160
|
+
### 2.5 Asset Angle
|
|
161
|
+
|
|
162
|
+
States:
|
|
163
|
+
- **None**
|
|
164
|
+
- **Possible**
|
|
165
|
+
- **Strong**
|
|
166
|
+
|
|
167
|
+
Rules:
|
|
168
|
+
- **Strong** if verifiable after-tax asset value exceeds market cap by **≥30%**
|
|
169
|
+
- **Possible** if hidden assets appear meaningful but valuation or catalyst is incomplete
|
|
170
|
+
- **None** otherwise
|
|
171
|
+
|
|
172
|
+
### 2.6 Dominant Analytical Lenses
|
|
173
|
+
|
|
174
|
+
Choose **up to 2** traits that should dominate the rest of the analysis.
|
|
175
|
+
Examples:
|
|
176
|
+
- High cyclicality
|
|
177
|
+
- Active turnaround
|
|
178
|
+
- Recovering turnaround
|
|
179
|
+
- Fast growth
|
|
180
|
+
- Strong asset angle
|
|
181
|
+
- Mature slow-growth economics
|
|
182
|
+
|
|
183
|
+
## 3) Long-Term Track Record
|
|
184
|
+
|
|
185
|
+
**Output format: maximum 220 words**
|
|
186
|
+
|
|
187
|
+
### 3.1 Revenue & EPS Trend
|
|
188
|
+
|
|
189
|
+
Summarize:
|
|
190
|
+
- revenue direction and rough CAGR band
|
|
191
|
+
- earnings per share (EPS) consistency and volatility
|
|
192
|
+
- major drops or spikes
|
|
193
|
+
|
|
194
|
+
### 3.2 Earnings Predictability
|
|
195
|
+
|
|
196
|
+
Rate one:
|
|
197
|
+
- **Rock steady** — net income grows or holds in 4–5 of 5 years; no single year drops more than ~20%; operating cash flow confirms
|
|
198
|
+
- **Moderate fluctuation** — net income swings roughly ±20–50%, or net income is noisy but operating cash flow is steadier
|
|
199
|
+
- **Highly volatile** — net income swings more than 50% in multiple years, or both net income and operating cash flow are erratic
|
|
200
|
+
|
|
201
|
+
If volatility is mainly due to cyclicality, say so explicitly rather than treating it as a generic red flag.
|
|
202
|
+
|
|
203
|
+
### 3.3 Profitability
|
|
204
|
+
|
|
205
|
+
Primary metric:
|
|
206
|
+
|
|
207
|
+
- **Pretax profit margin** (rising, stable, falling?)
|
|
208
|
+
|
|
209
|
+
Secondary:
|
|
210
|
+
|
|
211
|
+
- Return on Equity (ROE) (direction and stability)
|
|
212
|
+
|
|
213
|
+
Avoid reliance on ROIC unless clearly labeled as supplemental.
|
|
214
|
+
|
|
215
|
+
### 3.4 Share Dilution
|
|
216
|
+
|
|
217
|
+
State whether share count is:
|
|
218
|
+
- materially shrinking
|
|
219
|
+
- stable
|
|
220
|
+
- heavily diluting
|
package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-2.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# references/deep/methodology.md · Part 2 of 4
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Part 2/4 of `references/deep/methodology.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/deep/methodology-1.md` for the whole guide.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
## 4) Balance Sheet & Financial Safety
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
**Output format: maximum 220 words**
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
### 4.1 Leverage
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
Discuss:
|
|
12
|
+
- debt-to-equity trend
|
|
13
|
+
- net debt trend
|
|
14
|
+
- interest coverage = EBIT ÷ interest expense
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
Standard benchmark:
|
|
17
|
+
- below **3x** interest coverage = monitor closely
|
|
18
|
+
- below **1.5x** = red flag
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
|
|
21
|
+
Use **interest‑bearing debt only**: short‑term borrowings + long‑term debt + current portion of long‑term debt.
|
|
22
|
+
Do NOT use total liabilities. It will distort brokers, banks, insurers, and high working‑capital businesses.
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
**warning thresholds:**
|
|
25
|
+
- If **Growth profile = Fast** → **D/E > 33%** = red flag
|
|
26
|
+
- If **Turnaround status = Active or Recovering** OR **Cyclicality = High** → **D/E > 50%** = red flag
|
|
27
|
+
- All others → **D/E > 80%** = red flag
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
### 4.2 Liquidity
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
- Current ratio = current assets ÷ current liabilities.
|
|
32
|
+
Below 1.0 means the company cannot cover near-term obligations
|
|
33
|
+
from current assets alone — flag it.
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
- Receivables check: if receivables grow significantly faster than
|
|
36
|
+
revenue, it may signal customers are slow to pay or that sales are
|
|
37
|
+
being pulled forward artificially.
|
|
38
|
+
- Inventory vs revenue growth: if inventory grows faster than revenue → warning. For cyclical businesses this is a high-priority red flag. For turnarounds and fast growers, note that additional context is needed before drawing conclusions.
|
|
39
|
+
|
|
40
|
+
### 4.3 Net Cash Cushion
|
|
41
|
+
|
|
42
|
+
Net cash = cash and short-term investments − total interest-bearing debt.
|
|
43
|
+
Total interest-bearing debt = long-term debt + current portion of
|
|
44
|
+
long-term debt + short-term borrowings.
|
|
45
|
+
|
|
46
|
+
Net cash per share = net cash ÷ diluted shares outstanding.
|
|
47
|
+
|
|
48
|
+
- If **positive**: state the net cash per share and note that it lowers
|
|
49
|
+
the effective purchase price (stock price − net cash per share = true
|
|
50
|
+
cost of the business) and reduces bankruptcy risk.
|
|
51
|
+
- If **negative**: flag the shortfall, state the amount, and note its
|
|
52
|
+
size relative to annual operating cash flow.
|
|
53
|
+
|
|
54
|
+
### 4.4 Off-Balance-Sheet Risks
|
|
55
|
+
|
|
56
|
+
Check:
|
|
57
|
+
- **Pension liabilities**: note whether funded or underfunded.
|
|
58
|
+
- **Operating leases**: note total commitment if material relative to
|
|
59
|
+
operating income.
|
|
60
|
+
- **Goodwill**: if goodwill exceeds 25% of total assets, investigate
|
|
61
|
+
acquisition history — check whether past acquisitions generated
|
|
62
|
+
earnings growth or resulted in write-downs, and whether new
|
|
63
|
+
acquisitions are still being made.
|
|
64
|
+
|
|
65
|
+
### 4.5 Turnaround Survival
|
|
66
|
+
|
|
67
|
+
**Only if Turnaround status = Active or Recovering**
|
|
68
|
+
|
|
69
|
+
Can cash + FCF likely cover **12–24 months**?
|
|
70
|
+
Prefer turnarounds with low or no debt.
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
---
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
## 5) Cash Flow & Earnings Quality
|
|
75
|
+
|
|
76
|
+
**Output format: maximum 220 words**
|
|
77
|
+
|
|
78
|
+
### 5.1 Do Reported Profits Match Cash Generation?
|
|
79
|
+
|
|
80
|
+
- Compare net income to operating cash flow over at least 3 years.
|
|
81
|
+
A persistent gap where operating cash flow is less than half of net
|
|
82
|
+
income needs a specific explanation (depreciation, stock-based
|
|
83
|
+
compensation, working capital changes). Unexplained gaps are a warning.
|
|
84
|
+
- Is free cash flow positive? If negative, identify whether it is driven
|
|
85
|
+
by high capital expenditure (investment phase — requires context) or
|
|
86
|
+
by weak operating cash flow (structural concern — red flag).
|
|
87
|
+
|
|
88
|
+
Red flags:
|
|
89
|
+
- Rising net income with flat or declining operating cash flow over
|
|
90
|
+
multiple years
|
|
91
|
+
- Repeated "one-time" charges or adjustments that recur every year
|
|
92
|
+
- Free cash flow persistently negative while net income is reported positive
|
|
93
|
+
|
|
94
|
+
### 5.2 Capex Logic
|
|
95
|
+
|
|
96
|
+
- High capex acceptable if tied to real expansion
|
|
97
|
+
- Low capex despite bold growth story → suspicious
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
### 5.3 Dividend Policy
|
|
100
|
+
|
|
101
|
+
- Dividend policy (stable, growing, cut?)
|
|
102
|
+
|
|
103
|
+
Interpretation by profile:
|
|
104
|
+
- **Slow + Mature** → dividends and payout safety matter
|
|
105
|
+
- **Fast or Scaling/Early** → reinvestment is usually preferable
|
|
106
|
+
- **Stalwart-like / mature non-cyclical** → balanced mix is acceptable
|
|
107
|
+
|
|
108
|
+
## 6) Growth Drivers & “Room to Grow”
|
|
109
|
+
|
|
110
|
+
**Output format: maximum 220 words**
|
|
111
|
+
|
|
112
|
+
### 6.1 Specific Growth Drivers
|
|
113
|
+
|
|
114
|
+
List 1–4 main growth drivers.
|
|
115
|
+
|
|
116
|
+
For each:
|
|
117
|
+
|
|
118
|
+
- Evidence in numbers
|
|
119
|
+
- Revenue contribution % (if available)
|
|
120
|
+
- Scalability
|
|
121
|
+
|
|
122
|
+
### 6.2 Duplication Model Test
|
|
123
|
+
|
|
124
|
+
Is growth driven by:
|
|
125
|
+
- replication of a proven model (preferred), or
|
|
126
|
+
- constant reinvention (riskier)?
|
|
127
|
+
|
|
128
|
+
### 6.3 Expansion Possibility
|
|
129
|
+
|
|
130
|
+
Discuss:
|
|
131
|
+
- whitespace remaining
|
|
132
|
+
- geographic penetration
|
|
133
|
+
- store/location/product saturation
|
|
134
|
+
- whether the company is still early in market penetration or already broadly present
|
|
135
|
+
|
|
136
|
+
If most markets already penetrated → growth may slow.
|
|
137
|
+
|
|
138
|
+
### 6.4 Unit Economics
|
|
139
|
+
|
|
140
|
+
Discuss:
|
|
141
|
+
|
|
142
|
+
- Gross margin trend
|
|
143
|
+
- Pretax margin by segment
|
|
144
|
+
- Basic unit profitability logic
|
|
145
|
+
|
|
146
|
+
Judge: Strong / Acceptable / Weak
|
package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-3.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# references/deep/methodology.md · Part 3 of 4
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Part 3/4 of `references/deep/methodology.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/deep/methodology-1.md` for the whole guide.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
## 7) Competitive Position
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
**Output format: maximum 250 words**
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
Avoid generic "moat" language. State specifically whether the company is a cost leader, niche specialist, brand-driven, or undifferentiated competitor, and what evidence supports that label. If competitor margin data is available, compare directly; if not, note the absence.
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
### 7.1 Industry Structure
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
- Fragmented or consolidated? Name the 2–3 largest competitors.
|
|
14
|
+
- Are margins in the industry rising, stable, or under pressure?
|
|
15
|
+
- Structural tailwinds or headwinds?
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
Use competitors and industry context already disclosed in the annual report,
|
|
18
|
+
latest results, or existing research brief first. Do not ask for a separate
|
|
19
|
+
external source only to make this subsection look complete.
|
|
20
|
+
|
|
21
|
+
Ask the host's retrieval channel for competitor or industry material only when
|
|
22
|
+
it can change the investment conclusion, such as when competitive pressure,
|
|
23
|
+
market-share loss, peer margins, industry cyclicality, regulation, or structural
|
|
24
|
+
industry change is central to the thesis.
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
If peer margin data is not already available from the existing source ledger
|
|
27
|
+
and is not thesis-critical, write `not available` rather than asking for another
|
|
28
|
+
source only to complete this subsection.
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
### 7.2 Diworsification Check
|
|
31
|
+
|
|
32
|
+
Have recent acquisitions or strategy moved outside core competency?
|
|
33
|
+
|
|
34
|
+
If yes → assess risk.
|
|
35
|
+
|
|
36
|
+
### 7.3 Institutional Ownership
|
|
37
|
+
|
|
38
|
+
- % held by institutions
|
|
39
|
+
- Lower ownership may allow re-rating potential.
|
|
40
|
+
|
|
41
|
+
Use only if available from the existing source ledger or quickly available from
|
|
42
|
+
the proxy / ownership source already gathered. If not available, write
|
|
43
|
+
`unknown`; do not add a new source unless ownership could materially change the
|
|
44
|
+
investment conclusion.
|
|
45
|
+
|
|
46
|
+
### 7.4 Management Ownership
|
|
47
|
+
|
|
48
|
+
Distinct from insider *buying* signals, this is
|
|
49
|
+
a one-time baseline criterion:
|
|
50
|
+
|
|
51
|
+
- Does management (CEO, CFO, key executives) hold a meaningful
|
|
52
|
+
equity stake relative to their compensation?
|
|
53
|
+
- Is the ownership stake a result of open-market purchases or
|
|
54
|
+
purely from option grants?
|
|
55
|
+
|
|
56
|
+
Open-market purchases by management → strong alignment signal.
|
|
57
|
+
Ownership purely from grants/options → weaker alignment.
|
|
58
|
+
Negligible personal ownership → flag; management benefits mainly
|
|
59
|
+
from salary, not stock performance.
|
|
60
|
+
|
|
61
|
+
Use the proxy / ownership source if it is already in the ledger or if governance
|
|
62
|
+
is thesis-critical. If management ownership is not disclosed or not gathered,
|
|
63
|
+
write `unknown` and lower conviction where appropriate; do not ask for extra
|
|
64
|
+
ownership sources merely to complete this subsection.
|
|
65
|
+
|
|
66
|
+
## 8) Valuation
|
|
67
|
+
|
|
68
|
+
**Output format: maximum 220 words**
|
|
69
|
+
|
|
70
|
+
Use the valuation lens that matches the Diagnostic Profile.
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
### 8.1 Valuation Lens by Profile
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
Apply the most relevant lens:
|
|
75
|
+
- **High cyclicality** → use normalized or mid-cycle earnings; low P/E at peak can be dangerous, high P/E at trough can be opportunity
|
|
76
|
+
- **Active/Recovering turnaround** → P/E may be misleading; focus more on survival, dilution, and normalized earning power
|
|
77
|
+
- **Fast growth** → PEG/PEGY, runway, and growth durability matter most
|
|
78
|
+
- **Strong asset angle** → asset value, catalyst, and downside floor may matter more than P/E
|
|
79
|
+
- **Stalwart-like / Slow / Mature** → P/E, dividend yield, and earnings line are more informative
|
|
80
|
+
|
|
81
|
+
### 8.2 Core Metrics
|
|
82
|
+
|
|
83
|
+
State:
|
|
84
|
+
- trailing P/E
|
|
85
|
+
- growth expectation band
|
|
86
|
+
- dividend yield
|
|
87
|
+
|
|
88
|
+
Compare to:
|
|
89
|
+
- own history
|
|
90
|
+
- the most relevant diagnostic lens
|
|
91
|
+
|
|
92
|
+
If earnings are negative or distorted, say P/E is not meaningful.
|
|
93
|
+
|
|
94
|
+
### 8.3 PEG & PEGY
|
|
95
|
+
|
|
96
|
+
PEG = P/E ÷ growth rate
|
|
97
|
+
PEGY = P/E ÷ (growth rate + dividend yield)
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
Use percentage terms (e.g. 15, not 0.15)
|
|
100
|
+
|
|
101
|
+
Interpretation:
|
|
102
|
+
- **<1** → cheap
|
|
103
|
+
- **≈1** → fair
|
|
104
|
+
- **1–1.5** → acceptable
|
|
105
|
+
- **>1.5–2** → expensive unless exceptional
|
|
106
|
+
|
|
107
|
+
### 8.4 Net Cash Adjustment
|
|
108
|
+
|
|
109
|
+
Adjusted price = stock price − net cash per share
|
|
110
|
+
Recalculate effective P/E if appropriate.
|
|
111
|
+
|
|
112
|
+
### 8.5 Earnings Line Check
|
|
113
|
+
|
|
114
|
+
Does price sit far above or below the earnings trend?
|