@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.7.12

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (79) hide show
  1. package/CHANGELOG.md +48 -3
  2. package/README.md +3 -2
  3. package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
  4. package/config/package.json +1 -1
  5. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
  6. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
  7. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
  8. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
  9. package/package.json +1 -1
  10. package/preset/capital-generation/agent.patch.yml +6 -3
  11. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-profile/SKILL.md +177 -0
  12. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-protocol/SKILL.md +11 -269
  13. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-query/SKILL.md +109 -0
  14. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-equity-research/SKILL.md +2 -2
  15. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-orchestration/SKILL.md +3 -2
  16. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-evidence/SKILL.md +134 -0
  17. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-protocol/SKILL.md +10 -130
  18. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
  19. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/SKILL.md +11 -152
  20. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/10-analysis-framework.md +75 -0
  21. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/11-output-and-signal.md +51 -0
  22. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md +44 -0
  23. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/SKILL.md +11 -177
  24. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/10-scoring-framework.md +85 -0
  25. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/11-output-format.md +58 -0
  26. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/12-invalidation-and-signal.md +51 -0
  27. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
  28. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +16 -184
  29. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/10-catalyst-types.md +64 -0
  30. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/11-workflow-and-calendar.md +131 -0
  31. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/SKILL.md +14 -195
  32. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/references/10-workflow.md +201 -0
  33. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/SKILL.md +15 -156
  34. package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/references/10-workflow.md +161 -0
  35. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
  36. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/SKILL.md +31 -122
  37. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{01-decision-posture.md → 01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md} +0 -119
  38. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/01-decision-posture-D05-D09.md +123 -0
  39. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/02-business-economics-B01-B03.md +94 -0
  40. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{02-business-economics.md → 02-business-economics-B04-B07.md} +3 -93
  41. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{03-management-governance.md → 03-management-governance-M01-M04.md} +0 -93
  42. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/03-management-governance-M05-M08.md +97 -0
  43. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/04-financial-reality-F01-F03.md +95 -0
  44. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{04-financial-reality.md → 04-financial-reality-F04-F07.md} +3 -94
  45. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{05-valuation.md → 05-valuation-V01-V03.md} +0 -72
  46. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/05-valuation-V04-V06.md +76 -0
  47. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{06-capital-allocation.md → 06-capital-allocation-C01-C04.md} +0 -115
  48. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/06-capital-allocation-C05-C09.md +119 -0
  49. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{07-risk-monitoring.md → 07-risk-monitoring-R01-R03.md} +0 -94
  50. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/07-risk-monitoring-R04-R07.md +98 -0
  51. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S01-S03.md +99 -0
  52. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S04-S06.md +72 -0
  53. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S07-S09.md +74 -0
  54. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S10-S12.md +76 -0
  55. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/09-workflows.md +96 -0
  56. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/10-method.md +12 -0
  57. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/11-deterministic-router.md +11 -0
  58. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
  59. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/SKILL.md +10 -86
  60. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/10-workflow.md +94 -0
  61. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-1.md +220 -0
  62. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-2.md +146 -0
  63. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-3.md +114 -0
  64. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-4.md +113 -0
  65. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology.md +8 -521
  66. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-1.md +119 -0
  67. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-2.md +82 -0
  68. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-3.md +158 -0
  69. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-4.md +123 -0
  70. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research.md +8 -454
  71. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-1.md +155 -0
  72. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-2.md +43 -0
  73. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology.md +6 -180
  74. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-1.md +114 -0
  75. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-2.md +180 -0
  76. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-3.md +92 -0
  77. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research.md +7 -359
  78. package/watchlist/package.json +1 -1
  79. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays.md +0 -309
@@ -47,96 +47,20 @@ Determine the workflow from the user's message:
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  If neither a company nor ticker can be inferred from the request, ask one concise clarification question.
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- The source tiers below (aggregator profile pages, SEC / regulator filings, annual reports) are US and overseas-listing conventions. In an A-share session the same analysis must be asked for in A-share terms instead — disclosure platforms, no Form 4 / 13F, no wash-sale rules — and that is decided by the host's retrieval channel, not by this skill.
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+ The source tiers in `references/10-workflow.md` (aggregator profile pages, SEC / regulator filings, annual reports) are US and overseas-listing conventions. In an A-share session the same analysis must be asked for in A-share terms instead — disclosure platforms, no Form 4 / 13F, no wash-sale rules — and that is decided by the host's retrieval channel, not by this skill.
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  Do **not** ask the user for an annual report PDF or API keys.
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- ## Workflow overview
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+ ## Read the Parts
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- Copy this checklist and track progress:
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+ Everything below the surface of this file lives in `references/`. Open a part with `read`,
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+ resolved against this skill's base directory; each part is sized to arrive complete in one
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+ `read`. If a receipt shows `[... tool result middle pruned ...]`, re-read it with `offset`
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+ before concluding anything is missing.
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- ```
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- Task Progress:
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- - [ ] Step 1: Route (quick or deep)
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- - [ ] Step 2: Read workflow-specific web research guide
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- - [ ] Step 3: Gather data and compile structured research brief
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- - [ ] Step 4: Read workflow prompts
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- - [ ] Step 5: Write report from the brief only
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- - [ ] Step 6: Append disclaimer
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- ```
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+ - `references/10-workflow.md` — Workflow overview; Research brief; Failure handling
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- ### Step 1: Route
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+ Loading this file is not reading the skill: the steps, templates, and thresholds exist only
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+ in the parts above. Say which parts you opened, name the ones you did not, and never report a
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+ step or a template you have not read in this session.
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- Select **Quick** or **Deep** using the routing table above.
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-
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- ### Step 2: Read workflow-specific web research guide
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-
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- Read only the workflow-specific web guide:
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-
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- - **Quick:** [references/quick/web-research.md](references/quick/web-research.md)
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- - **Deep:** [references/deep/web-research.md](references/deep/web-research.md)
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-
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- Read [references/filing-rules.md](references/filing-rules.md) only when regulator/XBRL data, ADRs, secondary listings, specialized financial companies, or accounting-basis issues matter. Do not read it for normal Quick Research unless the Quick web guide specifically triggers it.
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-
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- ### Step 3: Gather data and compile research brief
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-
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- Asking the host's own retrieval path for the data (in a host that splits roles: delegate it with the brief, do not browse from here):
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-
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- 1. Follow the **workflow-specific** source plan, retrieval brief, stopping rule, and research brief template in `references/quick/web-research.md` or `references/deep/web-research.md`.
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- 2. Respect the workflow-specific default budgets unless an override in that workflow guide is triggered — the budget is how many sources you ask the channel for, not how many you go and open yourself:
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- - **Quick:** practical default of 1-3 reputable aggregator sources, 2-3 retrieval queries, and 2-3 page fetches; expand only when another aggregator is needed to complete the existing Quick methodology.
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- - **Deep:** 5-7 sources, 6-8 retrieval queries, 7-10 page/document fetches, with the default source set kept as small as the report can support.
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- 3. For **Quick**: gather the minimum viable evidence needed for a responsible SKIP / WATCHLIST / DEEP RESEARCH decision, then stop.
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- 4. For **Deep**: follow the annual report discovery procedure in `references/deep/web-research.md` — ask for the latest full annual report on the company's investor relations site (HTML or PDF); regulator filings are the fallback.
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- 5. Do not ask for a separate retrieval per fiscal year for normal historical metrics. For Quick, use aggregator tables. For Deep, use the annual report, 10-K / 20-F, regulator filing, or regulator facts feed as the historical base.
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- 6. Do not print research narration, retrieval play-by-play, or the full research brief unless the user asks for it.
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- 7. Capture period, currency, units, date gathered, and source ID(s) for every important number and claim. Each source ID must resolve to a URL in the Source Ledger. Filing labels may be included, but they do not replace a ledger URL.
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- 8. Do **not** invent financial data.
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-
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- ### Step 4: Read workflow prompts
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-
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- **Quick path** — read both before writing:
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-
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- - [references/quick/system-prompt.md](references/quick/system-prompt.md)
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- - [references/quick/methodology.md](references/quick/methodology.md)
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-
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- **Deep path** — read both before writing:
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-
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- - [references/deep/system-prompt.md](references/deep/system-prompt.md)
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- - [references/deep/methodology.md](references/deep/methodology.md)
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-
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- ### Step 5: Write report
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-
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- Use the research brief as the only factual context for the report. Do not include the full research brief in the final report unless the user asks for it.
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-
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- Every final report must cite sources with links:
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-
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- - Any company description, financial number, valuation metric, market data point, management claim, industry claim, competitor claim, ownership claim, or news/update claim needs a source.
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- - Use source lines directly below the relevant bullet or paragraph: `source: [Source name](https://...)`.
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- - Multiple sources may be separated with semicolons.
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- - Do not cite a source that is not in the research brief Source Ledger.
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- - Expand any internal source IDs from the brief into full linked `source:` lines in the final report.
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- - Source lines do not count toward Quick or Deep word limits.
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-
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- Internally prefix the analysis context with:
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-
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- ```
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- Data gathered: YYYY-MM-DD
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-
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- ## Research brief
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-
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- {full research brief markdown}
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- ```
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-
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- ### Step 6: Append disclaimer
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-
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- Read [references/disclaimer.md](references/disclaimer.md) only when the report body is ready. After the report body, add a horizontal rule and append the full contents of the disclaimer.
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-
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- ## Failure handling
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-
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- - If the host's retrieval path returns nothing for a field you need: name the missing fields and stop the analysis that depends on them — do not fabricate data.
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- - If a ticker cannot be resolved: inform the user clearly.
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- - If the annual report cannot be found after all fallbacks in `references/deep/web-research.md`: note the gap in the research brief and proceed using other verified sources — do **not** ask the user for a PDF.
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- - If a specific metric is unverified: say you do not know; do not estimate or invent numbers.
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- - If retrieved claims lack source ID(s) that resolve to Source Ledger URL(s): do not include them in the report.
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- - If live market data cannot be verified from the current source: for Quick, ask the channel for another reputable aggregator; for Deep, use the workflow's market-data fallback rules. Do not use stale or unsourced values.
@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
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+ # Workflow and Research Brief
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+
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+ Part 1 of 1 for `peter-lynch-skill` — the six steps, the research brief template, and failure handling
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+ See `SKILL.md` for what to read and when; this part is procedure, not routing.
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+
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+ ## Workflow overview
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+
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+ Copy this checklist and track progress:
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+
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+ ```
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+ Task Progress:
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+ - [ ] Step 1: Route (quick or deep)
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+ - [ ] Step 2: Read workflow-specific web research guide
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+ - [ ] Step 3: Gather data and compile structured research brief
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+ - [ ] Step 4: Read workflow prompts
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+ - [ ] Step 5: Write report from the brief only
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+ - [ ] Step 6: Append disclaimer
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+ ```
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+
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+ ### Step 1: Route
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+
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+ Select **Quick** or **Deep** using the routing table above.
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+
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+ ### Step 2: Read workflow-specific web research guide
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+
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+ Read only the workflow-specific web guide:
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+
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+ - **Quick:** [references/quick/web-research.md](references/quick/web-research.md)
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+ - **Deep:** [references/deep/web-research.md](references/deep/web-research.md)
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+
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+ Read [references/filing-rules.md](references/filing-rules.md) only when regulator/XBRL data, ADRs, secondary listings, specialized financial companies, or accounting-basis issues matter. Do not read it for normal Quick Research unless the Quick web guide specifically triggers it.
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+
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+ ### Step 3: Gather data and compile research brief
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+
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+ Asking the host's own retrieval path for the data (in a host that splits roles: delegate it with the brief, do not browse from here):
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+
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+ 1. Follow the **workflow-specific** source plan, retrieval brief, stopping rule, and research brief template in `references/quick/web-research.md` or `references/deep/web-research.md`.
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+ 2. Respect the workflow-specific default budgets unless an override in that workflow guide is triggered — the budget is how many sources you ask the channel for, not how many you go and open yourself:
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+ - **Quick:** practical default of 1-3 reputable aggregator sources, 2-3 retrieval queries, and 2-3 page fetches; expand only when another aggregator is needed to complete the existing Quick methodology.
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+ - **Deep:** 5-7 sources, 6-8 retrieval queries, 7-10 page/document fetches, with the default source set kept as small as the report can support.
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+ 3. For **Quick**: gather the minimum viable evidence needed for a responsible SKIP / WATCHLIST / DEEP RESEARCH decision, then stop.
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+ 4. For **Deep**: follow the annual report discovery procedure in `references/deep/web-research.md` — ask for the latest full annual report on the company's investor relations site (HTML or PDF); regulator filings are the fallback.
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+ 5. Do not ask for a separate retrieval per fiscal year for normal historical metrics. For Quick, use aggregator tables. For Deep, use the annual report, 10-K / 20-F, regulator filing, or regulator facts feed as the historical base.
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+ 6. Do not print research narration, retrieval play-by-play, or the full research brief unless the user asks for it.
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+ 7. Capture period, currency, units, date gathered, and source ID(s) for every important number and claim. Each source ID must resolve to a URL in the Source Ledger. Filing labels may be included, but they do not replace a ledger URL.
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+ 8. Do **not** invent financial data.
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+
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+ ### Step 4: Read workflow prompts
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+
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+ **Quick path** — read both before writing:
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+
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+ - [references/quick/system-prompt.md](references/quick/system-prompt.md)
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+ - [references/quick/methodology.md](references/quick/methodology.md)
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+
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+ **Deep path** — read both before writing:
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+
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+ - [references/deep/system-prompt.md](references/deep/system-prompt.md)
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+ - [references/deep/methodology.md](references/deep/methodology.md)
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+
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+ ### Step 5: Write report
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+
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+ Use the research brief as the only factual context for the report. Do not include the full research brief in the final report unless the user asks for it.
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+
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+ Every final report must cite sources with links:
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+
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+ - Any company description, financial number, valuation metric, market data point, management claim, industry claim, competitor claim, ownership claim, or news/update claim needs a source.
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+ - Use source lines directly below the relevant bullet or paragraph: `source: [Source name](https://...)`.
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+ - Multiple sources may be separated with semicolons.
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+ - Do not cite a source that is not in the research brief Source Ledger.
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+ - Expand any internal source IDs from the brief into full linked `source:` lines in the final report.
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+ - Source lines do not count toward Quick or Deep word limits.
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+
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+ Internally prefix the analysis context with:
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+
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+ ```
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+ Data gathered: YYYY-MM-DD
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+
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+ ## Research brief
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+
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+ {full research brief markdown}
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+ ```
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+
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+ ### Step 6: Append disclaimer
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+
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+ Read [references/disclaimer.md](references/disclaimer.md) only when the report body is ready. After the report body, add a horizontal rule and append the full contents of the disclaimer.
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+
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+ ## Failure handling
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+
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+ - If the host's retrieval path returns nothing for a field you need: name the missing fields and stop the analysis that depends on them — do not fabricate data.
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+ - If a ticker cannot be resolved: inform the user clearly.
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+ - If the annual report cannot be found after all fallbacks in `references/deep/web-research.md`: note the gap in the research brief and proceed using other verified sources — do **not** ask the user for a PDF.
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+ - If a specific metric is unverified: say you do not know; do not estimate or invent numbers.
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+ - If retrieved claims lack source ID(s) that resolve to Source Ledger URL(s): do not include them in the report.
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+ - If live market data cannot be verified from the current source: for Quick, ask the channel for another reputable aggregator; for Deep, use the workflow's market-data fallback rules. Do not use stale or unsourced values.
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+ ## 1) Business Model and Understandability
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+
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+ **Output format: maximum 400 words**
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+
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+ ### 1.1 Business Model in Plain Language
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+
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+ Answer:
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+ - What does the company actually sell?
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+ - Who are the main customers?
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+ - How does the company make money?
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+ - In which geographies does the company operate?
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+
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+ Write this so a 12-year-old could understand it.
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+
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+ ### 1.2 Business Structure Analysis
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+
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+ - First, analyze earnings (profit) structure by segment and product if data is available.
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+
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+ - If segment-level profit data is available:
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+ - show % contribution to total operating income or net income
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+
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+ - If not available:
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+ - fall back to revenue structure (with %)
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+
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+ - Highlight:
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+ - the most profitable segment and product
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+ - whether profits are concentrated or diversified
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+
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+ ### 1.3 Hype Check
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+
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+ - Is the business thesis based on real business performance or just hype?
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+ - If the exciting product/division is **<10% of total revenue**, question whether it can meaningfully drive EPS.
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+
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+ **Warning:**
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+ If the thesis relies on a revolutionary technology, miracle drug, or “next big thing” narrative without meaningful current revenue contribution, apply extreme skepticism.
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+
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+ ### 1.4 Earnings Drivers: Controllable vs External
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+
39
+ Identify **1–4 key current earnings drivers** and the drivers expected to shape future earnings.
40
+
41
+ For each driver:
42
+ - briefly describe it
43
+ - label it as:
44
+ - **Mostly controllable** — mainly influenced by management decisions
45
+ - **Mostly external** — mainly driven by market, macro, commodity, regulation, or industry conditions
46
+
47
+ Guideline: stability and continuity of earnings drivers are preferred because they improve predictability.
48
+
49
+ ### 1.5 Business Understandability Check
50
+
51
+ Classify business complexity:
52
+
53
+ - **Easy** — simple business model; revenue drivers and risks are clear
54
+ - **Moderate** — some industry-specific metrics or dynamics require extra work
55
+ - **Hard** — complexity, regulation, accounting, or technical factors materially affect valuation
56
+
57
+ If classified as **Hard**, explicitly state what must be understood before investing.
58
+
59
+ ### 1.6 Investment Story & Invalidation Conditions
60
+
61
+ - What is the one-sentence thesis for this business?
62
+ - What are **2–3 conditions** that would kill the thesis? Use a numeric list.
63
+ - How will you track whether the story is unfolding?
64
+
65
+ ## 2) Diagnostic Profile (No Single Category)
66
+
67
+ **Output format: maximum 250 words**
68
+
69
+ Report the following traits independently.
70
+ For each trait, give:
71
+ - **State**
72
+ - **Conviction**: Low / Medium / High
73
+ - **Evidence**: 1 short sentence
74
+
75
+ Use this compact bullet format:
76
+
77
+ - Cyclicality: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
78
+ - Turnaround status: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
79
+ - Growth profile: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
80
+ - Business maturity: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
81
+ - Asset angle: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
82
+ - Dominant analytical lenses: [list up to 2 traits that should dominate the rest of the analysis]
83
+
84
+ ### 2.1 Cyclicality
85
+
86
+ States:
87
+ - **High**
88
+ - **Moderate**
89
+ - **Low**
90
+
91
+ Rules:
92
+ - **High** if:
93
+ - at least **2 full EPS cycles** in the last 10 years (**peak → trough → peak**),
94
+ - peaks had positive EPS,
95
+ - swings were **≥30%**
96
+ - **Moderate** if:
97
+ - 1 clear cycle, or
98
+ - repeated earnings swings of roughly **15–30%**, or
99
+ - the industry is clearly cyclical but the financial history is too short for a High rating
100
+ - **Low** otherwise
101
+
102
+ ### 2.2 Turnaround Status
103
+
104
+ States:
105
+ - **None**
106
+ - **Active**
107
+ - **Recovering**
108
+
109
+ Rules:
110
+ - **Active** if any of the following are true:
111
+ - EPS declined **2+ consecutive years**
112
+ - revenue contracted **>5%** and margins compressed
113
+ - EPS is **≥30% below prior peak**
114
+ - and the deterioration is **not mainly normal cyclicality**
115
+ - **Recovering** if the business recently met Active criteria but revenue, margins, or EPS have now stabilized or started improving
116
+ - **None** otherwise
117
+
118
+ ### 2.3 Growth Profile
119
+
120
+ States:
121
+ - **Fast**
122
+ - **Stalwart-like**
123
+ - **Slow**
124
+ - **Moderate/Other**
125
+ - **Declining**
126
+
127
+ Rules:
128
+ - **Fast** if:
129
+ - **2Y EPS CAGR ≥20%**
130
+ - revenue growth confirms
131
+ - growth is **not mainly a cyclical rebound**
132
+ - growth is **not merely recovery from a distressed base**
133
+ - **Stalwart-like** if:
134
+ - **2Y EPS CAGR = 8–12%**
135
+ - margins are stable
136
+ - no 2-year EPS decline
137
+ - no revenue contraction >5%
138
+ - and cyclicality is **not High**
139
+ - **Slow** if:
140
+ - **2Y EPS CAGR = 2–5%**
141
+ - and the business appears **large/mature**
142
+ - and there is no obvious distress
143
+ - **Moderate/Other** if results fall between bands or are mixed
144
+ - **Declining** if EPS CAGR is below 2% or negative
145
+
146
+ **Guardrail:** If EPS growth is mostly from buybacks, cost cutting, or recovery off a depressed base, say growth quality is weaker.
147
+
148
+ ### 2.4 Business Maturity
149
+
150
+ States:
151
+ - **Early**
152
+ - **Scaling**
153
+ - **Mature**
154
+
155
+ Rules:
156
+ - **Early** — still proving the model; concentrated geography/product; evidence base limited
157
+ - **Scaling** — model proven and expanding into more markets/products; meaningful whitespace remains
158
+ - **Mature** — broad penetration, lower whitespace, and capital allocation/dividends/buybacks matter more
159
+
160
+ ### 2.5 Asset Angle
161
+
162
+ States:
163
+ - **None**
164
+ - **Possible**
165
+ - **Strong**
166
+
167
+ Rules:
168
+ - **Strong** if verifiable after-tax asset value exceeds market cap by **≥30%**
169
+ - **Possible** if hidden assets appear meaningful but valuation or catalyst is incomplete
170
+ - **None** otherwise
171
+
172
+ ### 2.6 Dominant Analytical Lenses
173
+
174
+ Choose **up to 2** traits that should dominate the rest of the analysis.
175
+ Examples:
176
+ - High cyclicality
177
+ - Active turnaround
178
+ - Recovering turnaround
179
+ - Fast growth
180
+ - Strong asset angle
181
+ - Mature slow-growth economics
182
+
183
+ ## 3) Long-Term Track Record
184
+
185
+ **Output format: maximum 220 words**
186
+
187
+ ### 3.1 Revenue & EPS Trend
188
+
189
+ Summarize:
190
+ - revenue direction and rough CAGR band
191
+ - earnings per share (EPS) consistency and volatility
192
+ - major drops or spikes
193
+
194
+ ### 3.2 Earnings Predictability
195
+
196
+ Rate one:
197
+ - **Rock steady** — net income grows or holds in 4–5 of 5 years; no single year drops more than ~20%; operating cash flow confirms
198
+ - **Moderate fluctuation** — net income swings roughly ±20–50%, or net income is noisy but operating cash flow is steadier
199
+ - **Highly volatile** — net income swings more than 50% in multiple years, or both net income and operating cash flow are erratic
200
+
201
+ If volatility is mainly due to cyclicality, say so explicitly rather than treating it as a generic red flag.
202
+
203
+ ### 3.3 Profitability
204
+
205
+ Primary metric:
206
+
207
+ - **Pretax profit margin** (rising, stable, falling?)
208
+
209
+ Secondary:
210
+
211
+ - Return on Equity (ROE) (direction and stability)
212
+
213
+ Avoid reliance on ROIC unless clearly labeled as supplemental.
214
+
215
+ ### 3.4 Share Dilution
216
+
217
+ State whether share count is:
218
+ - materially shrinking
219
+ - stable
220
+ - heavily diluting
@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
1
+ # references/deep/methodology.md · Part 2 of 4
2
+
3
+ Part 2/4 of `references/deep/methodology.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/deep/methodology-1.md` for the whole guide.
4
+
5
+ ## 4) Balance Sheet & Financial Safety
6
+
7
+ **Output format: maximum 220 words**
8
+
9
+ ### 4.1 Leverage
10
+
11
+ Discuss:
12
+ - debt-to-equity trend
13
+ - net debt trend
14
+ - interest coverage = EBIT ÷ interest expense
15
+
16
+ Standard benchmark:
17
+ - below **3x** interest coverage = monitor closely
18
+ - below **1.5x** = red flag
19
+
20
+
21
+ Use **interest‑bearing debt only**: short‑term borrowings + long‑term debt + current portion of long‑term debt.
22
+ Do NOT use total liabilities. It will distort brokers, banks, insurers, and high working‑capital businesses.
23
+
24
+ **warning thresholds:**
25
+ - If **Growth profile = Fast** → **D/E > 33%** = red flag
26
+ - If **Turnaround status = Active or Recovering** OR **Cyclicality = High** → **D/E > 50%** = red flag
27
+ - All others → **D/E > 80%** = red flag
28
+
29
+ ### 4.2 Liquidity
30
+
31
+ - Current ratio = current assets ÷ current liabilities.
32
+ Below 1.0 means the company cannot cover near-term obligations
33
+ from current assets alone — flag it.
34
+
35
+ - Receivables check: if receivables grow significantly faster than
36
+ revenue, it may signal customers are slow to pay or that sales are
37
+ being pulled forward artificially.
38
+ - Inventory vs revenue growth: if inventory grows faster than revenue → warning. For cyclical businesses this is a high-priority red flag. For turnarounds and fast growers, note that additional context is needed before drawing conclusions.
39
+
40
+ ### 4.3 Net Cash Cushion
41
+
42
+ Net cash = cash and short-term investments − total interest-bearing debt.
43
+ Total interest-bearing debt = long-term debt + current portion of
44
+ long-term debt + short-term borrowings.
45
+
46
+ Net cash per share = net cash ÷ diluted shares outstanding.
47
+
48
+ - If **positive**: state the net cash per share and note that it lowers
49
+ the effective purchase price (stock price − net cash per share = true
50
+ cost of the business) and reduces bankruptcy risk.
51
+ - If **negative**: flag the shortfall, state the amount, and note its
52
+ size relative to annual operating cash flow.
53
+
54
+ ### 4.4 Off-Balance-Sheet Risks
55
+
56
+ Check:
57
+ - **Pension liabilities**: note whether funded or underfunded.
58
+ - **Operating leases**: note total commitment if material relative to
59
+ operating income.
60
+ - **Goodwill**: if goodwill exceeds 25% of total assets, investigate
61
+ acquisition history — check whether past acquisitions generated
62
+ earnings growth or resulted in write-downs, and whether new
63
+ acquisitions are still being made.
64
+
65
+ ### 4.5 Turnaround Survival
66
+
67
+ **Only if Turnaround status = Active or Recovering**
68
+
69
+ Can cash + FCF likely cover **12–24 months**?
70
+ Prefer turnarounds with low or no debt.
71
+
72
+ ---
73
+
74
+ ## 5) Cash Flow & Earnings Quality
75
+
76
+ **Output format: maximum 220 words**
77
+
78
+ ### 5.1 Do Reported Profits Match Cash Generation?
79
+
80
+ - Compare net income to operating cash flow over at least 3 years.
81
+ A persistent gap where operating cash flow is less than half of net
82
+ income needs a specific explanation (depreciation, stock-based
83
+ compensation, working capital changes). Unexplained gaps are a warning.
84
+ - Is free cash flow positive? If negative, identify whether it is driven
85
+ by high capital expenditure (investment phase — requires context) or
86
+ by weak operating cash flow (structural concern — red flag).
87
+
88
+ Red flags:
89
+ - Rising net income with flat or declining operating cash flow over
90
+ multiple years
91
+ - Repeated "one-time" charges or adjustments that recur every year
92
+ - Free cash flow persistently negative while net income is reported positive
93
+
94
+ ### 5.2 Capex Logic
95
+
96
+ - High capex acceptable if tied to real expansion
97
+ - Low capex despite bold growth story → suspicious
98
+
99
+ ### 5.3 Dividend Policy
100
+
101
+ - Dividend policy (stable, growing, cut?)
102
+
103
+ Interpretation by profile:
104
+ - **Slow + Mature** → dividends and payout safety matter
105
+ - **Fast or Scaling/Early** → reinvestment is usually preferable
106
+ - **Stalwart-like / mature non-cyclical** → balanced mix is acceptable
107
+
108
+ ## 6) Growth Drivers & “Room to Grow”
109
+
110
+ **Output format: maximum 220 words**
111
+
112
+ ### 6.1 Specific Growth Drivers
113
+
114
+ List 1–4 main growth drivers.
115
+
116
+ For each:
117
+
118
+ - Evidence in numbers
119
+ - Revenue contribution % (if available)
120
+ - Scalability
121
+
122
+ ### 6.2 Duplication Model Test
123
+
124
+ Is growth driven by:
125
+ - replication of a proven model (preferred), or
126
+ - constant reinvention (riskier)?
127
+
128
+ ### 6.3 Expansion Possibility
129
+
130
+ Discuss:
131
+ - whitespace remaining
132
+ - geographic penetration
133
+ - store/location/product saturation
134
+ - whether the company is still early in market penetration or already broadly present
135
+
136
+ If most markets already penetrated → growth may slow.
137
+
138
+ ### 6.4 Unit Economics
139
+
140
+ Discuss:
141
+
142
+ - Gross margin trend
143
+ - Pretax margin by segment
144
+ - Basic unit profitability logic
145
+
146
+ Judge: Strong / Acceptable / Weak
@@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
1
+ # references/deep/methodology.md · Part 3 of 4
2
+
3
+ Part 3/4 of `references/deep/methodology.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/deep/methodology-1.md` for the whole guide.
4
+
5
+ ## 7) Competitive Position
6
+
7
+ **Output format: maximum 250 words**
8
+
9
+ Avoid generic "moat" language. State specifically whether the company is a cost leader, niche specialist, brand-driven, or undifferentiated competitor, and what evidence supports that label. If competitor margin data is available, compare directly; if not, note the absence.
10
+
11
+ ### 7.1 Industry Structure
12
+
13
+ - Fragmented or consolidated? Name the 2–3 largest competitors.
14
+ - Are margins in the industry rising, stable, or under pressure?
15
+ - Structural tailwinds or headwinds?
16
+
17
+ Use competitors and industry context already disclosed in the annual report,
18
+ latest results, or existing research brief first. Do not ask for a separate
19
+ external source only to make this subsection look complete.
20
+
21
+ Ask the host's retrieval channel for competitor or industry material only when
22
+ it can change the investment conclusion, such as when competitive pressure,
23
+ market-share loss, peer margins, industry cyclicality, regulation, or structural
24
+ industry change is central to the thesis.
25
+
26
+ If peer margin data is not already available from the existing source ledger
27
+ and is not thesis-critical, write `not available` rather than asking for another
28
+ source only to complete this subsection.
29
+
30
+ ### 7.2 Diworsification Check
31
+
32
+ Have recent acquisitions or strategy moved outside core competency?
33
+
34
+ If yes → assess risk.
35
+
36
+ ### 7.3 Institutional Ownership
37
+
38
+ - % held by institutions
39
+ - Lower ownership may allow re-rating potential.
40
+
41
+ Use only if available from the existing source ledger or quickly available from
42
+ the proxy / ownership source already gathered. If not available, write
43
+ `unknown`; do not add a new source unless ownership could materially change the
44
+ investment conclusion.
45
+
46
+ ### 7.4 Management Ownership
47
+
48
+ Distinct from insider *buying* signals, this is
49
+ a one-time baseline criterion:
50
+
51
+ - Does management (CEO, CFO, key executives) hold a meaningful
52
+ equity stake relative to their compensation?
53
+ - Is the ownership stake a result of open-market purchases or
54
+ purely from option grants?
55
+
56
+ Open-market purchases by management → strong alignment signal.
57
+ Ownership purely from grants/options → weaker alignment.
58
+ Negligible personal ownership → flag; management benefits mainly
59
+ from salary, not stock performance.
60
+
61
+ Use the proxy / ownership source if it is already in the ledger or if governance
62
+ is thesis-critical. If management ownership is not disclosed or not gathered,
63
+ write `unknown` and lower conviction where appropriate; do not ask for extra
64
+ ownership sources merely to complete this subsection.
65
+
66
+ ## 8) Valuation
67
+
68
+ **Output format: maximum 220 words**
69
+
70
+ Use the valuation lens that matches the Diagnostic Profile.
71
+
72
+ ### 8.1 Valuation Lens by Profile
73
+
74
+ Apply the most relevant lens:
75
+ - **High cyclicality** → use normalized or mid-cycle earnings; low P/E at peak can be dangerous, high P/E at trough can be opportunity
76
+ - **Active/Recovering turnaround** → P/E may be misleading; focus more on survival, dilution, and normalized earning power
77
+ - **Fast growth** → PEG/PEGY, runway, and growth durability matter most
78
+ - **Strong asset angle** → asset value, catalyst, and downside floor may matter more than P/E
79
+ - **Stalwart-like / Slow / Mature** → P/E, dividend yield, and earnings line are more informative
80
+
81
+ ### 8.2 Core Metrics
82
+
83
+ State:
84
+ - trailing P/E
85
+ - growth expectation band
86
+ - dividend yield
87
+
88
+ Compare to:
89
+ - own history
90
+ - the most relevant diagnostic lens
91
+
92
+ If earnings are negative or distorted, say P/E is not meaningful.
93
+
94
+ ### 8.3 PEG & PEGY
95
+
96
+ PEG = P/E ÷ growth rate
97
+ PEGY = P/E ÷ (growth rate + dividend yield)
98
+
99
+ Use percentage terms (e.g. 15, not 0.15)
100
+
101
+ Interpretation:
102
+ - **<1** → cheap
103
+ - **≈1** → fair
104
+ - **1–1.5** → acceptable
105
+ - **>1.5–2** → expensive unless exceptional
106
+
107
+ ### 8.4 Net Cash Adjustment
108
+
109
+ Adjusted price = stock price − net cash per share
110
+ Recalculate effective P/E if appropriate.
111
+
112
+ ### 8.5 Earnings Line Check
113
+
114
+ Does price sit far above or below the earnings trend?