npm - @v587d/capital-generation - Versions diffs - 2.7.11 → 2.7.12 - Mend

@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.7.12

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package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research.md CHANGED Viewed

@@ -13,459 +13,13 @@ This file is self-contained. Read `references/filing-rules.md` only when
 regulator/XBRL data, ADRs, secondary listings, specialized financial companies,
 or accounting-basis issues matter.
-## Minimum Source Rules
+This guide is split into 4 files so each one arrives complete in a single `read`.
+Open the part you need with `read`, resolved against this skill's base directory:
-Use sources in this order:
+- `web-research-1.md` — ?; ?; ?; ?; ?
+- `web-research-2.md` — ?; ?; ?
+- `web-research-3.md` — ?; ?
+- `web-research-4.md` — ?; ?; ?; ?
-1. company investor relations, annual report, 10-K / 20-F, latest results
-2. regulatory filings, exchange filings, official announcements
-3. exchange or reputable financial data pages
-4. established financial media or reputable industry sources
-Never use anonymous blogs, forums, social media posts, or unsourced pages as the
-sole source for financial numbers.
-Every retrieval request must fill a Source Ledger slot, resolve a source conflict,
-support a triggered module, or fill a required methodology field. Do not ask for
-another source out of curiosity.
-Do not ask source-by-source per fiscal year or per metric when an annual
-report, latest results release, or filing can answer the question. Extract
-revenue, earnings per share (EPS), margins, cash, debt, interest expense,
-shares, dividends, buybacks, and cash-flow lines from the primary source.
-Before asking for a seventh source after the sixth Deep retrieval, ask internally:
-* What methodology-required fact is missing?
-* Can an existing source answer it?
-* Can the item be marked `unknown`, `not found`, or `not disclosed` without
-  lowering report completeness?
-Ask for more when the missing item is required by the methodology and cannot be
-answered from existing sources. Use `unknown`, `not found`, or `not disclosed`
-only after at least one appropriate source path has been checked, or when the
-item is not applicable.
-If sources conflict, use filings / annual reports for historical facts, market
-sources for live valuation, and the most recent official company or regulator
-source for post-period updates.
-Every important number in the research brief must include metric, period/date,
-value, currency/units, source ID(s), and label: `Reported`, `Calculated`, or
-`Inference`.
-Final report citations must use Source Ledger URLs and this format:
-`source: [Source name](https://...)`
-## Budget
-Starting budget:
-* **7-10 sources**
-* **8-12 retrieval requests**
-* **10-16 page/document fetches**
-This is a starting budget, not a hard cap. Expand it when methodology-required
-facts are still missing, identity is ambiguous, the annual report / filing is
-blocked, live market data is incomplete, sources conflict, or legal,
-regulatory, solvency, fraud, commodity, geopolitical, or technology-disruption
-risk is triggered.
-## Default Source Set
-For most public companies, start with:
-1. latest annual report / 10-K / 20-F
-2. latest quarterly, half-year, earnings release, or trading update
-3. one reputable live market-data page
-4. proxy / ownership / governance source for institutional ownership,
-   management ownership, insider purchases, and compensation alignment
-5. one external industry / competitor source for market structure, peer
-   margins, cyclicality, pricing power, and market-share context
-6. one legal, regulatory, commodity, geopolitical, or technology-risk source
-   when the annual report or business model indicates that the risk is material
-Add sources beyond this when they fill a missing methodology field, resolve a
-conflict, or support a triggered module.
-## Core Principle
-Build the report from two layers:
-1. **Annual report / filings layer**: historical financials, segments,
-   geography, debt, cash flow, shares, buybacks, dividends, risks, management
-   discussion.
-2. **External completion layer**: live valuation, industry cyclicality, market
-   share, peer margins, pricing power, competitive positioning, macro
-   sensitivity, ownership, insider activity, recession resilience,
-   forward-looking growth drivers, and special risks not fully answered by
-   filings.
-Do not use news or analyst commentary as a replacement for audited historical
-financials.
-## Phase 1: Resolve Identity
-Identify:
-* legal company name
-* ticker / primary exchange
-* country of incorporation / reporting
-* official website / investor relations URL
-* latest fiscal year end
-If identity is unclear, resolve it through official or exchange sources before
-asking for more sources.
-## Phase 2: Find Latest Full Annual Report
-Use annual-report discovery targets first — each line below is one thing to ask
-the host's retrieval channel for, worked through in order and stopped once a
-complete, current annual report or equivalent full-year filing is in the ledger:
-* `"{company name}" investor relations annual report site:{company-domain}`
-* `"{company name}" annual report {current year OR prior year} investor relations`
-* `"{company name}" 10-K site:sec.gov`
-* `"{company name}" 20-F site:sec.gov`
-* `"{ticker}" SEC 10-K 20-F annual report`
-* `"{company name}" annual report PDF`
-* `"{company name}" integrated report`
-Selection rules:
-* Must be a full annual report or equivalent full-year filing.
-* Prefer the most recent completed fiscal year.
-* Do not use quarterly or interim reports unless no annual report exists.
-* The company name must match the entity being researched.
-If found:
-* record title, fiscal year, format, URL, sections used, and fetch limitations
-* have the host's retrieval path read the document — in a host that splits
-  roles, hand over the URL and work from the text that comes back (a PDF is
-  parsed by the retrieval role, not opened from here)
-* extract all normal historical financial facts before external gap-fill requests
-* do not fetch separate annual-report pages for each year unless the latest
-  annual report lacks a required historical table
-* do not ask for separate sources per statement line, ratio,
-  dividend, buyback, or historical year already covered by the annual report
-If not found after the reasonable source paths above:
-* note `Annual report: not found`
-* continue with regulator filings and verified market sources
-* do not ask the user to upload a PDF
-If a PDF cannot be fetched, prefer HTML annual report, XBRL filing, SEC filing
-page, exchange filing page, or investor-relations annual-report landing page.
-## Phase 3: Extract Annual-Report Base
-Extract targeted sections first:
-* business overview
-* segment and geography data
-* income statement
-* balance sheet
-* cash flow statement
-* debt, liquidity, lease, pension, and goodwill notes when material
-* share count, buyback, dividend, and capital-allocation notes
-* management discussion and analysis
-* risk factors relevant to triggered concerns
-Record report-ready facts:
-* identity and business description
-* revenue, gross profit, operating income, net income, EPS
-* operating cash flow, capital expenditures, free cash flow
-* cash, debt, equity, liabilities, shares outstanding
-* segment revenue and segment profit if disclosed
-* geography breakdown if disclosed
-* dividend history
-* buybacks / repurchases
-* share issuance / dilution
-* principal risks and management commentary
-Use filings and annual reports as the primary source for historical financial
-facts. Do not replace them with third-party data unless official sources are
-missing or unclear.
-## Annual-Report Base Template
-Use this internal template:
-```md
-## Annual-Report Base
-### Identity
-- Legal company name:
-- Ticker / exchange:
-- Country of incorporation / reporting:
-- Reporting currency:
-- Fiscal year end:
-- Investor relations URL:
-### Annual Report / Filing Details
-- Title:
-- Fiscal year:
-- Format:
-- URL:
-- Filing form/accession/section:
-- Sections used:
-- Fetch limitations:
-### Business Description
-- Business model:
-- Products/services:
-- Customers:
-- Geographies:
-- Segments:
-- Source ID(s):
-### Historical Financials
-| Metric | Period | Value | Currency/units | Label | Source ID(s) |
-|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|
-| Revenue | | | | Reported | |
-| Gross profit | | | | Reported | |
-| Operating income | | | | Reported | |
-| Net income | | | | Reported | |
-| Diluted EPS | | | | Reported | |
-### Cash Flow
-| Metric | Period | Value | Currency/units | Label | Source ID(s) |
-|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|
-| Operating cash flow | | | | Reported | |
-| Capital expenditures | | | | Reported | |
-| Free cash flow | | | | Calculated | |
-### Balance Sheet
-| Metric | Period | Value | Currency/units | Label | Source ID(s) |
-|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|
-| Cash and equivalents | | | | Reported | |
-| Short-term borrowings | | | | Reported | |
-| Current portion of long-term debt | | | | Reported | |
-| Long-term debt | | | | Reported | |
-| Total interest-bearing debt | | | | Calculated | |
-| Shareholders' equity | | | | Reported | |
-| Diluted shares outstanding | | | | Reported | |
-### Segment and Geography Data
-- Segment revenue/profit:
-- Geography revenue/profit:
-- Concentration notes:
-- Source ID(s):
-### Capital Allocation
-- Dividends:
-- Buybacks:
-- Share issuance/dilution:
-- Major capital expenditure:
-- Source ID(s):
-### Management Commentary and Risks
-- Growth drivers:
-- Margin drivers:
-- Principal risks:
-- Invalidation points:
-- Source ID(s):
-### Methodology Coverage Checklist
-- Business model, segments, geography, hype check:
-- Diagnostic profile inputs: cyclicality, turnaround, growth profile, maturity, asset angle:
-- Track record: revenue, EPS, predictability, margins, ROE, share count:
-- Balance sheet: debt, net debt, interest coverage, current ratio, receivables, inventory, net cash, pensions, leases, goodwill:
-- Cash flow: net income vs operating cash flow, free cash flow, capex, dividends:
-- Growth: drivers, contribution %, duplication model, whitespace, unit economics:
-- Competition: industry structure, competitors, peer margins, market share, pricing power:
-- Ownership: institutional ownership, management ownership, insider buying:
-- Valuation: share price, market cap, trailing P/E, forward P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, dividend yield, 52-week range, historical comparison if available:
-- Triggered modules: cyclicality, turnaround, asset angle, stalwart resilience, fast-growth quality, mature income:
-- Final score inputs:
-### Missing Methodology Items
-- [item] — [not disclosed / not found / not applicable] — [source path checked]
-```
-Keep one evolving research brief. Do not create duplicate annual-report briefs.
-## Phase 4: External Gap-Fill Searches
-After the annual-report base is built, map the brief against the Methodology
-Coverage Checklist. Ask the host's retrieval channel for targeted external
-sources covering any methodology-required gap that the annual report or filing
-did not answer:
-* `"{company name}" latest quarterly results guidance`
-* `"{ticker}" market cap PE forward PE PEG EV EBITDA 52 week range`
-* `"{company name}" insider buying institutional ownership`
-* `"{company name}" market share competitors industry outlook`
-* `"{company name}" pricing power margins competitors`
-* `"{company name}" dividend buyback share repurchase`
-* `"{company name}" recession EPS dividend history`
-* `"{company name}" peer margins competitors operating margin`
-* `"{company name}" market share industry report`
-Do not run this pack automatically. Ask only for the sources needed to complete
-the methodology coverage checklist.
-Use external sources for questions not fully covered by the annual report:
-* industry cyclicality
-* competitor comparison
-* market share trends
-* pricing power
-* customer retention / churn if relevant
-* macro sensitivity
-* regulatory changes
-* technology disruption risk
-* expected industry growth
-* insider transactions
-* institutional ownership
-* management ownership and compensation alignment
-* recession resilience
-* peer margins
-* live valuation metrics
-For ownership, check the annual report or filing package first. If ownership is
-missing or incomplete there, use proxy, governance, regulator, exchange, or
-reputable ownership data sources.
-Do not add external sources for historical financial facts, segment facts, cash
-flow, debt, dividends, buybacks, or management discussion when the annual report
-or filing already covers them.
-Competitor, market-share, industry, ownership, and peer-valuation requests are
-required when those fields are not already covered by the existing source
-ledger. Keep them targeted and stop when the methodology field has enough
-evidence for a concise judgment.
-For latest quarterly or interim results, use this fallback order:
-1. company earnings release or trading update
-2. quarterly / half-year report
-3. regulator filing or exchange announcement
-4. reputable financial news only if primary sources are blocked, unavailable,
-   or do not contain the required decision-critical item
-Do not use news or analyst commentary for recent financial numbers when a
-company or regulator source is available.
-## Phase 5: Live Market Data
-Use one market-data source first.
-Gather:
-* current share price
-* market cap
-* trailing P/E
-* forward P/E
-* PEG
-* EV/EBITDA
-* dividend yield
-* 52-week range
-Fallback order:
-1. primary exchange quote page
-2. company investor-relations stock quote page
-3. major financial data publisher
-4. another reputable market-data source
-Add a second market-data source if the first is missing a methodology-required
-metric, appears stale, conflicts with another source, or cannot be fetched.
-If forward P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, or another valuation metric remains unavailable
-after one reputable market-data source and one reasonable fallback, mark it
-`not found` and record the sources checked.
-## Deep Research Brief
-Before writing, compile a structured internal brief:
-```md
-## Deep Research Brief
-### Source Ledger
-- [S1] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
-- [S2] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
-- [S3] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
-- [S4] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
-- [S5] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
-- [S6 optional] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
-### Annual-Report Base
-- Summary from Annual-Report Base:
-- Key verified financial facts:
-- Key verified business facts:
-- Key management risks:
-### Live Valuation Facts
-- Data gathered:
-- Share price:
-- Market cap:
-- Trailing P/E:
-- Forward P/E:
-- PEG:
-- EV/EBITDA:
-- Dividend yield:
-- 52-week range:
-- Source ID(s):
-### External Interpretation Findings
-- Industry cyclicality:
-- Competitors / market share:
-- Peer margins:
-- Pricing power:
-- Macro sensitivity:
-- Regulatory or technology disruption risk:
-- Insider transactions:
-- Institutional ownership:
-- Management ownership:
-- Recession resilience:
-- Source ID(s):
-### Methodology Coverage
-- Section 1 Business model and understandability:
-- Section 2 Diagnostic profile:
-- Section 3 Long-term track record:
-- Section 4 Balance sheet and financial safety:
-- Section 5 Cash flow and earnings quality:
-- Section 6 Growth drivers and room to grow:
-- Section 7 Competitive position:
-- Section 8 Valuation:
-- Section 9 Triggered special modules:
-- Section 10 Final score inputs:
-### Calculations and Inferences
-- [calculation or inference]:
-- Inputs:
-- Formula / reasoning:
-- Source ID(s):
-### Source Conflicts
-- [conflict or none]:
-- Resolution:
-### Unknowns and Lower-Conviction Areas
-- [item]:
-- Sources checked:
-```
-## Deep Validation Before Writing
-Confirm:
-* company identity verified from official or exchange source
-* latest full annual report located, or the gap explicitly noted
-* every important number and claim has source ID(s)
-* every methodology section has enough evidence for a concise answer
-* historical facts came from filings / annual report first
-* live valuation came from market source, not filing
-* no figures invented to fill gaps
-* interpretation claims are grounded in evidence
-When evidence is incomplete, say `unknown`, `not disclosed`, or `not found`,
-and record the source path checked. Do not omit a methodology-required item
-silently.
+This index is not the guide: name which parts you opened, and never report a step, a
+threshold, or a template you have not read in this session.

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-1.md ADDED Viewed

@@ -0,0 +1,155 @@
+## 1) Understandability & Growth Story
+- **How it makes money**: Explain the business model in 1-2 sentences
+- **Specific growth driver**: Identify ONE concrete driver for earnings growth over 3-5 years (e.g., more stores, new product cycle, cost cuts, market share gains, recovery from specific issue)
+- **Controllable vs. external**: Is growth driven by company execution or external factors (commodities, macro, hype)?
+**Red flags → SKIP:**
+- Cannot explain the business simply
+- No credible path to higher earnings
+- Growth depends entirely on uncontrollable external factors
+***
+## 2) Diagnostic Profile (No Single Category)
+Report the following traits independently.
+For each trait, give:
+- **State**
+- **Conviction**: Low / Medium / High
+- **Evidence**: 1 short sentence
+Use this compact bullet format:
+- Cyclicality: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
+- Turnaround status: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
+- Growth profile: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
+- Business maturity: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
+- Asset angle: [state] | Conviction: [Low/Medium/High] | Evidence: ...
+- Dominant analytical lenses: [list up to 2 traits that should dominate the rest of the analysis]
+### 2.1 Cyclicality
+States:
+- **High**
+- **Moderate**
+- **Low**
+Rules:
+- **High** if:
+  - at least **2 full EPS cycles** in the last 10 years (**peak → trough → peak**),
+  - peaks had positive EPS,
+  - swings were **≥30%**
+- **Moderate** if:
+  - 1 clear cycle, or
+  - repeated earnings swings of roughly **15–30%**, or
+  - the industry is clearly cyclical but the financial history is too short for a High rating
+- **Low** otherwise
+### 2.2 Turnaround Status
+States:
+- **None**
+- **Active**
+- **Recovering**
+Rules:
+- **Active** if any of the following are true:
+  - EPS declined **2+ consecutive years**
+  - revenue contracted **>5%** and margins compressed
+  - EPS is **≥30% below prior peak**
+  - and the deterioration is **not mainly normal cyclicality**
+- **Recovering** if the business recently met Active criteria but revenue, margins, or EPS have now stabilized or started improving
+- **None** otherwise
+### 2.3 Growth Profile
+States:
+- **Fast**
+- **Stalwart-like**
+- **Slow**
+- **Moderate/Other**
+- **Declining**
+Rules:
+- **Fast** if:
+  - **2Y EPS CAGR ≥20%**
+  - revenue growth confirms
+  - growth is **not mainly a cyclical rebound**
+  - growth is **not merely recovery from a distressed base**
+- **Stalwart-like** if:
+  - **2Y EPS CAGR = 8–12%**
+  - margins are stable
+  - no 2-year EPS decline
+  - no revenue contraction >5%
+  - and cyclicality is **not High**
+- **Slow** if:
+  - **2Y EPS CAGR = 2–5%**
+  - and the business appears **large/mature**
+  - and there is no obvious distress
+- **Moderate/Other** if results fall between bands or are mixed (treat with caution — weaker conviction category)
+- **Declining** if EPS CAGR is below 2% or negative
+**Guardrail:** If EPS growth is mostly from buybacks, cost cutting, or recovery off a depressed base, say growth quality is weaker.
+### 2.4 Business Maturity
+States:
+- **Early**
+- **Scaling**
+- **Mature**
+Rules:
+- **Early** — still proving the model; concentrated geography/product; evidence base limited
+- **Scaling** — model proven and expanding into more markets/products; meaningful whitespace remains
+- **Mature** — broad penetration, lower whitespace, and capital allocation/dividends/buybacks matter more
+### 2.5 Asset Angle
+States:
+- **None**
+- **Possible**
+- **Strong**
+Rules:
+- **Strong** if verifiable after-tax asset value exceeds market cap by **≥30%**
+- **Possible** if hidden assets appear meaningful but valuation or catalyst is incomplete
+- **None** otherwise
+### 2.6 Dominant Analytical Lenses
+Choose **up to 2** traits that should dominate the rest of the analysis.
+Examples:
+- High cyclicality
+- Active turnaround
+- Recovering turnaround
+- Fast growth
+- Strong asset angle
+- Mature slow-growth economics
+## 3) Fatal Flaw Check
+Look for **dealbreakers only**:
+1. **EPS trend**: Is the 5-year direction acceptable for the category?
+    - Reject if: fast growth company with flat EPS, slow-growth company trading at high P/E, cyclical company at peak earnings without margin of safety
+2. **Debt danger**: Debt-to-Equity ratio
+    - **Fast growth company**: D/E > 33% — red flag (debt constrains growth flexibility)
+    - **Turnaround company / Cyclical business**: D/E > 50% — red flag (debt can kill recovery or amplify cycle damage)
+    - **All others**: D/E > 80% — red flag
+    Use **interest‑bearing debt only**: short‑term borrowings + long‑term debt + current portion of long‑term debt. Do NOT use total liabilities. It will distort brokers, banks, insurers,
+    and high working‑capital businesses.
+3. **Valuation**: Current P/E ÷ expected growth rate (PEG)
+    - Reject if: PEG >2.5, or P/E >40 without exceptional growth story
+    - Perfect for fast growth company is P/E at or near the growth rate (PEG ~1.0)
+4. **Recent trend break**: Any significant deterioration in last 2 quarters that contradicts the 5-year story?
+5. **Cash flow red flag**: Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow − Capex) persistently lags net income, OR net income rises while OCF/FCF weakens
+   - This suggests potential earnings quality issues or accounting games
+6. **Dividend**: IF slow growth company: Reject if no dividend or dividend has been cut in the last 5 years.
+7. **Growth risk**: Growth >25% annually: proceed with extra caution (hot industry risk, unsustainable pace).
+**If any metric is disqualifying, explain and mark SKIP.**
+***

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-2.md ADDED Viewed

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+# references/quick/methodology.md · Part 2 of 2
+Part 2/2 of `references/quick/methodology.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/quick/methodology-1.md` for the whole guide.
+## 4) Category specific check
+- **Skip** this section for Stalwart-like companies unless an obvious concern exists.
+- **Required** for Cyclicals, Turnarounds, and Asset Plays:
+  - Cyclical: Are we at cycle peak with full valuation?
+  - Turnaround:
+        1. Does the balance sheet support 12+ months without profit?
+        2. A turnaround trading at a depressed Low P/E (or negative earnings) is the classic setup. A company with turnaround-level problems but a sky-high P/E is a **valuation mismatch** the market is already pricing in a successful company before evidence exists. Flag this as a major risk: you are paying fast-grower prices for turnaround fundamentals.
+  - Asset Play: Is the hidden asset confirmed, quantified, and not already priced in the share value?
+  - Slow growth companies:
+        1. Have little interest in these unless deeply undervalued.
+        2. Pays generous, consistent dividends (the main reason to own it)
+***
+## 5) Bonus Points
+Note if ANY of these apply (each adds conviction):
+- Recent **corporate insider** buying (officers, directors, or >10%
+  shareholders — not institutional or political disclosures) in last 6 months
+- Active share buyback program reducing share count
+- Low institutional ownership (<30%)
+- Company buying back stock near 52-week lows
+- Stock price near or below net cash per share (cash minus total debt, divided by shares outstanding).
+***
+## 6) Decision
+Choose ONE:
+- **SKIP** — Not investable now. State the single most important dealbreaker (1 sentence).
+- **WATCHLIST** — Potentially attractive but currently not investable due to one missing element.
+    - State what is missing (1 sentence)
+    - Define a clear trigger for revisit (e.g., next earnings, valuation level, margin stabilization)
+- **DEEP RESEARCH** — Passes all filters and warrants full analysis.
+    - State the strongest reason (1 sentence)
+    - State category fit (e.g., Fast Growth, Turnaround, Cyclical, Asset Play)