@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.11 → 2.7.12

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-1.md

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+# Deep Web Research Workflow
+
+Deep Research is full due diligence. Source gathering must be complete enough
+to support every section of `references/deep/methodology.md`.
+
+The annual report / filing layer is the factual base, but it is not expected to
+answer every methodology question. Use targeted external sources to fill
+methodology-required gaps such as live valuation, peer context, ownership,
+insider activity, industry structure, recession resilience, and recent
+post-period updates.
+
+This file is self-contained. Read `references/filing-rules.md` only when
+regulator/XBRL data, ADRs, secondary listings, specialized financial companies,
+or accounting-basis issues matter.
+
+## Minimum Source Rules
+
+Use sources in this order:
+
+1. company investor relations, annual report, 10-K / 20-F, latest results
+2. regulatory filings, exchange filings, official announcements
+3. exchange or reputable financial data pages
+4. established financial media or reputable industry sources
+
+Never use anonymous blogs, forums, social media posts, or unsourced pages as the
+sole source for financial numbers.
+
+Every retrieval request must fill a Source Ledger slot, resolve a source conflict,
+support a triggered module, or fill a required methodology field. Do not ask for
+another source out of curiosity.
+
+Do not ask source-by-source per fiscal year or per metric when an annual
+report, latest results release, or filing can answer the question. Extract
+revenue, earnings per share (EPS), margins, cash, debt, interest expense,
+shares, dividends, buybacks, and cash-flow lines from the primary source.
+
+Before asking for a seventh source after the sixth Deep retrieval, ask internally:
+
+* What methodology-required fact is missing?
+* Can an existing source answer it?
+* Can the item be marked `unknown`, `not found`, or `not disclosed` without
+  lowering report completeness?
+
+Ask for more when the missing item is required by the methodology and cannot be
+answered from existing sources. Use `unknown`, `not found`, or `not disclosed`
+only after at least one appropriate source path has been checked, or when the
+item is not applicable.
+
+If sources conflict, use filings / annual reports for historical facts, market
+sources for live valuation, and the most recent official company or regulator
+source for post-period updates.
+
+Every important number in the research brief must include metric, period/date,
+value, currency/units, source ID(s), and label: `Reported`, `Calculated`, or
+`Inference`.
+
+Final report citations must use Source Ledger URLs and this format:
+
+`source: [Source name](https://...)`
+
+## Budget
+
+Starting budget:
+
+* **7-10 sources**
+* **8-12 retrieval requests**
+* **10-16 page/document fetches**
+
+This is a starting budget, not a hard cap. Expand it when methodology-required
+facts are still missing, identity is ambiguous, the annual report / filing is
+blocked, live market data is incomplete, sources conflict, or legal,
+regulatory, solvency, fraud, commodity, geopolitical, or technology-disruption
+risk is triggered.
+
+## Default Source Set
+
+For most public companies, start with:
+
+1. latest annual report / 10-K / 20-F
+2. latest quarterly, half-year, earnings release, or trading update
+3. one reputable live market-data page
+4. proxy / ownership / governance source for institutional ownership,
+   management ownership, insider purchases, and compensation alignment
+5. one external industry / competitor source for market structure, peer
+   margins, cyclicality, pricing power, and market-share context
+6. one legal, regulatory, commodity, geopolitical, or technology-risk source
+   when the annual report or business model indicates that the risk is material
+
+Add sources beyond this when they fill a missing methodology field, resolve a
+conflict, or support a triggered module.
+
+## Core Principle
+
+Build the report from two layers:
+
+1. **Annual report / filings layer**: historical financials, segments,
+   geography, debt, cash flow, shares, buybacks, dividends, risks, management
+   discussion.
+2. **External completion layer**: live valuation, industry cyclicality, market
+   share, peer margins, pricing power, competitive positioning, macro
+   sensitivity, ownership, insider activity, recession resilience,
+   forward-looking growth drivers, and special risks not fully answered by
+   filings.
+
+Do not use news or analyst commentary as a replacement for audited historical
+financials.
+
+## Phase 1: Resolve Identity
+
+Identify:
+
+* legal company name
+* ticker / primary exchange
+* country of incorporation / reporting
+* official website / investor relations URL
+* latest fiscal year end
+
+If identity is unclear, resolve it through official or exchange sources before
+asking for more sources.

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-2.md

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+# Deep Web Research Workflow · Part 2 of 4
+
+Part 2/4 of `references/deep/web-research.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/deep/web-research-1.md` for the whole guide.
+
+## Phase 2: Find Latest Full Annual Report
+
+Use annual-report discovery targets first — each line below is one thing to ask
+the host's retrieval channel for, worked through in order and stopped once a
+complete, current annual report or equivalent full-year filing is in the ledger:
+
+* `"{company name}" investor relations annual report site:{company-domain}`
+* `"{company name}" annual report {current year OR prior year} investor relations`
+* `"{company name}" 10-K site:sec.gov`
+* `"{company name}" 20-F site:sec.gov`
+* `"{ticker}" SEC 10-K 20-F annual report`
+* `"{company name}" annual report PDF`
+* `"{company name}" integrated report`
+
+Selection rules:
+
+* Must be a full annual report or equivalent full-year filing.
+* Prefer the most recent completed fiscal year.
+* Do not use quarterly or interim reports unless no annual report exists.
+* The company name must match the entity being researched.
+
+If found:
+
+* record title, fiscal year, format, URL, sections used, and fetch limitations
+* have the host's retrieval path read the document — in a host that splits
+  roles, hand over the URL and work from the text that comes back (a PDF is
+  parsed by the retrieval role, not opened from here)
+* extract all normal historical financial facts before external gap-fill requests
+* do not fetch separate annual-report pages for each year unless the latest
+  annual report lacks a required historical table
+* do not ask for separate sources per statement line, ratio,
+  dividend, buyback, or historical year already covered by the annual report
+
+If not found after the reasonable source paths above:
+
+* note `Annual report: not found`
+* continue with regulator filings and verified market sources
+* do not ask the user to upload a PDF
+
+If a PDF cannot be fetched, prefer HTML annual report, XBRL filing, SEC filing
+page, exchange filing page, or investor-relations annual-report landing page.
+
+## Phase 3: Extract Annual-Report Base
+
+Extract targeted sections first:
+
+* business overview
+* segment and geography data
+* income statement
+* balance sheet
+* cash flow statement
+* debt, liquidity, lease, pension, and goodwill notes when material
+* share count, buyback, dividend, and capital-allocation notes
+* management discussion and analysis
+* risk factors relevant to triggered concerns
+
+Record report-ready facts:
+
+* identity and business description
+* revenue, gross profit, operating income, net income, EPS
+* operating cash flow, capital expenditures, free cash flow
+* cash, debt, equity, liabilities, shares outstanding
+* segment revenue and segment profit if disclosed
+* geography breakdown if disclosed
+* dividend history
+* buybacks / repurchases
+* share issuance / dilution
+* principal risks and management commentary
+
+Use filings and annual reports as the primary source for historical financial
+facts. Do not replace them with third-party data unless official sources are
+missing or unclear.
+
+## Annual-Report Base Template
+
+Use this internal template:
+
+```md

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-3.md

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+# Deep Web Research Workflow · Part 3 of 4
+
+Part 3/4 of `references/deep/web-research.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/deep/web-research-1.md` for the whole guide.
+
+## Annual-Report Base
+
+### Identity
+- Legal company name:
+- Ticker / exchange:
+- Country of incorporation / reporting:
+- Reporting currency:
+- Fiscal year end:
+- Investor relations URL:
+
+### Annual Report / Filing Details
+- Title:
+- Fiscal year:
+- Format:
+- URL:
+- Filing form/accession/section:
+- Sections used:
+- Fetch limitations:
+
+### Business Description
+- Business model:
+- Products/services:
+- Customers:
+- Geographies:
+- Segments:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Historical Financials
+| Metric | Period | Value | Currency/units | Label | Source ID(s) |
+|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|
+| Revenue | | | | Reported | |
+| Gross profit | | | | Reported | |
+| Operating income | | | | Reported | |
+| Net income | | | | Reported | |
+| Diluted EPS | | | | Reported | |
+
+### Cash Flow
+| Metric | Period | Value | Currency/units | Label | Source ID(s) |
+|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|
+| Operating cash flow | | | | Reported | |
+| Capital expenditures | | | | Reported | |
+| Free cash flow | | | | Calculated | |
+
+### Balance Sheet
+| Metric | Period | Value | Currency/units | Label | Source ID(s) |
+|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|
+| Cash and equivalents | | | | Reported | |
+| Short-term borrowings | | | | Reported | |
+| Current portion of long-term debt | | | | Reported | |
+| Long-term debt | | | | Reported | |
+| Total interest-bearing debt | | | | Calculated | |
+| Shareholders' equity | | | | Reported | |
+| Diluted shares outstanding | | | | Reported | |
+
+### Segment and Geography Data
+- Segment revenue/profit:
+- Geography revenue/profit:
+- Concentration notes:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Capital Allocation
+- Dividends:
+- Buybacks:
+- Share issuance/dilution:
+- Major capital expenditure:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Management Commentary and Risks
+- Growth drivers:
+- Margin drivers:
+- Principal risks:
+- Invalidation points:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Methodology Coverage Checklist
+- Business model, segments, geography, hype check:
+- Diagnostic profile inputs: cyclicality, turnaround, growth profile, maturity, asset angle:
+- Track record: revenue, EPS, predictability, margins, ROE, share count:
+- Balance sheet: debt, net debt, interest coverage, current ratio, receivables, inventory, net cash, pensions, leases, goodwill:
+- Cash flow: net income vs operating cash flow, free cash flow, capex, dividends:
+- Growth: drivers, contribution %, duplication model, whitespace, unit economics:
+- Competition: industry structure, competitors, peer margins, market share, pricing power:
+- Ownership: institutional ownership, management ownership, insider buying:
+- Valuation: share price, market cap, trailing P/E, forward P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, dividend yield, 52-week range, historical comparison if available:
+- Triggered modules: cyclicality, turnaround, asset angle, stalwart resilience, fast-growth quality, mature income:
+- Final score inputs:
+
+### Missing Methodology Items
+- [item] — [not disclosed / not found / not applicable] — [source path checked]
+```
+
+Keep one evolving research brief. Do not create duplicate annual-report briefs.
+
+## Phase 4: External Gap-Fill Searches
+
+After the annual-report base is built, map the brief against the Methodology
+Coverage Checklist. Ask the host's retrieval channel for targeted external
+sources covering any methodology-required gap that the annual report or filing
+did not answer:
+
+* `"{company name}" latest quarterly results guidance`
+* `"{ticker}" market cap PE forward PE PEG EV EBITDA 52 week range`
+* `"{company name}" insider buying institutional ownership`
+* `"{company name}" market share competitors industry outlook`
+* `"{company name}" pricing power margins competitors`
+* `"{company name}" dividend buyback share repurchase`
+* `"{company name}" recession EPS dividend history`
+* `"{company name}" peer margins competitors operating margin`
+* `"{company name}" market share industry report`
+
+Do not run this pack automatically. Ask only for the sources needed to complete
+the methodology coverage checklist.
+
+Use external sources for questions not fully covered by the annual report:
+
+* industry cyclicality
+* competitor comparison
+* market share trends
+* pricing power
+* customer retention / churn if relevant
+* macro sensitivity
+* regulatory changes
+* technology disruption risk
+* expected industry growth
+* insider transactions
+* institutional ownership
+* management ownership and compensation alignment
+* recession resilience
+* peer margins
+* live valuation metrics
+
+For ownership, check the annual report or filing package first. If ownership is
+missing or incomplete there, use proxy, governance, regulator, exchange, or
+reputable ownership data sources.
+
+Do not add external sources for historical financial facts, segment facts, cash
+flow, debt, dividends, buybacks, or management discussion when the annual report
+or filing already covers them.
+
+Competitor, market-share, industry, ownership, and peer-valuation requests are
+required when those fields are not already covered by the existing source
+ledger. Keep them targeted and stop when the methodology field has enough
+evidence for a concise judgment.
+
+For latest quarterly or interim results, use this fallback order:
+
+1. company earnings release or trading update
+2. quarterly / half-year report
+3. regulator filing or exchange announcement
+4. reputable financial news only if primary sources are blocked, unavailable,
+   or do not contain the required decision-critical item
+
+Do not use news or analyst commentary for recent financial numbers when a
+company or regulator source is available.

package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-4.md

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+# Deep Web Research Workflow · Part 4 of 4
+
+Part 4/4 of `references/deep/web-research.md` — split so each part arrives complete in one `read`; see `references/deep/web-research-1.md` for the whole guide.
+
+## Phase 5: Live Market Data
+
+Use one market-data source first.
+
+Gather:
+
+* current share price
+* market cap
+* trailing P/E
+* forward P/E
+* PEG
+* EV/EBITDA
+* dividend yield
+* 52-week range
+
+Fallback order:
+
+1. primary exchange quote page
+2. company investor-relations stock quote page
+3. major financial data publisher
+4. another reputable market-data source
+
+Add a second market-data source if the first is missing a methodology-required
+metric, appears stale, conflicts with another source, or cannot be fetched.
+
+If forward P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, or another valuation metric remains unavailable
+after one reputable market-data source and one reasonable fallback, mark it
+`not found` and record the sources checked.
+
+## Deep Research Brief
+
+Before writing, compile a structured internal brief:
+
+```md
+
+## Deep Research Brief
+
+### Source Ledger
+- [S1] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+- [S2] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+- [S3] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+- [S4] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+- [S5] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+- [S6 optional] [source label]: [URL] — [period/date] — [what it supports] — [quality]
+
+### Annual-Report Base
+- Summary from Annual-Report Base:
+- Key verified financial facts:
+- Key verified business facts:
+- Key management risks:
+
+### Live Valuation Facts
+- Data gathered:
+- Share price:
+- Market cap:
+- Trailing P/E:
+- Forward P/E:
+- PEG:
+- EV/EBITDA:
+- Dividend yield:
+- 52-week range:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### External Interpretation Findings
+- Industry cyclicality:
+- Competitors / market share:
+- Peer margins:
+- Pricing power:
+- Macro sensitivity:
+- Regulatory or technology disruption risk:
+- Insider transactions:
+- Institutional ownership:
+- Management ownership:
+- Recession resilience:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Methodology Coverage
+- Section 1 Business model and understandability:
+- Section 2 Diagnostic profile:
+- Section 3 Long-term track record:
+- Section 4 Balance sheet and financial safety:
+- Section 5 Cash flow and earnings quality:
+- Section 6 Growth drivers and room to grow:
+- Section 7 Competitive position:
+- Section 8 Valuation:
+- Section 9 Triggered special modules:
+- Section 10 Final score inputs:
+
+### Calculations and Inferences
+- [calculation or inference]:
+- Inputs:
+- Formula / reasoning:
+- Source ID(s):
+
+### Source Conflicts
+- [conflict or none]:
+- Resolution:
+
+### Unknowns and Lower-Conviction Areas
+- [item]:
+- Sources checked:
+```
+
+## Deep Validation Before Writing
+
+Confirm:
+
+* company identity verified from official or exchange source
+* latest full annual report located, or the gap explicitly noted
+* every important number and claim has source ID(s)
+* every methodology section has enough evidence for a concise answer
+* historical facts came from filings / annual report first
+* live valuation came from market source, not filing
+* no figures invented to fill gaps
+* interpretation claims are grounded in evidence
+
+When evidence is incomplete, say `unknown`, `not disclosed`, or `not found`,
+and record the source path checked. Do not omit a methodology-required item
+silently.