@openfinclaw/findoo-datahub-plugin 2026.3.2 → 2026.3.10

package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/references/financial-ratios-guide.md

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+# Financial Ratios Guide
+
+Comprehensive reference for financial ratio analysis covering formulas, interpretation, and industry benchmarks across five categories.
+
+## 1. Profitability Ratios
+
+Measure a company's ability to generate earnings relative to revenue, assets, or equity.
+
+### Return on Equity (ROE)
+
+**Formula:** Net Income / Total Shareholders' Equity
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures how effectively management uses equity to generate profits
+- Higher ROE indicates more efficient use of equity capital
+- Compare against cost of equity - ROE should exceed it
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Below Average | < 8% |
+| Acceptable | 8% - 15% |
+| Good | 15% - 25% |
+| Excellent | > 25% |
+
+**Caveats:** High leverage can inflate ROE. Use DuPont decomposition (ROE = Margin x Turnover x Leverage) for deeper analysis.
+
+### Return on Assets (ROA)
+
+**Formula:** Net Income / Total Assets
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures how efficiently assets generate profit
+- Asset-light businesses naturally have higher ROA
+- Compare within industry only
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Below Average | < 3% |
+| Acceptable | 3% - 6% |
+| Good | 6% - 12% |
+| Excellent | > 12% |
+
+### Gross Margin
+
+**Formula:** (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures production efficiency and pricing power
+- Declining gross margin may signal competitive pressure or cost inflation
+- Critical for evaluating business model sustainability
+
+**Benchmarks by Industry:**
+| Industry | Typical Range |
+|----------|--------------|
+| Software/SaaS | 70% - 85% |
+| Financial Services | 50% - 70% |
+| Retail | 25% - 45% |
+| Manufacturing | 20% - 40% |
+| Grocery | 25% - 30% |
+
+### Operating Margin
+
+**Formula:** Operating Income / Revenue
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures operational efficiency after all operating expenses
+- Excludes interest and taxes for better operational comparison
+- Indicates management effectiveness in controlling costs
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Below Average | < 5% |
+| Acceptable | 5% - 15% |
+| Good | 15% - 25% |
+| Excellent | > 25% |
+
+### Net Margin
+
+**Formula:** Net Income / Revenue
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Bottom-line profitability after all expenses
+- Affected by tax strategy, capital structure, and one-time items
+- Most comprehensive profitability measure
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Below Average | < 3% |
+| Acceptable | 3% - 10% |
+| Good | 10% - 20% |
+| Excellent | > 20% |
+
+## 2. Liquidity Ratios
+
+Measure a company's ability to meet short-term obligations.
+
+### Current Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Current Assets / Current Liabilities
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures short-term solvency
+- Too high may indicate inefficient asset use
+- Too low signals potential liquidity risk
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Concern | < 1.0 |
+| Acceptable | 1.0 - 1.5 |
+| Healthy | 1.5 - 3.0 |
+| Excessive | > 3.0 |
+
+### Quick Ratio (Acid Test)
+
+**Formula:** (Current Assets - Inventory) / Current Liabilities
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- More conservative than current ratio
+- Excludes inventory (least liquid current asset)
+- Critical for businesses with slow-moving inventory
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Concern | < 0.8 |
+| Acceptable | 0.8 - 1.0 |
+| Healthy | 1.0 - 2.0 |
+| Excessive | > 2.0 |
+
+### Cash Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Cash & Equivalents / Current Liabilities
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Most conservative liquidity measure
+- Indicates ability to pay obligations with cash on hand
+- Particularly important during credit crunches
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Low | < 0.2 |
+| Adequate | 0.2 - 0.5 |
+| Strong | 0.5 - 1.0 |
+| Excessive | > 1.0 |
+
+## 3. Leverage Ratios
+
+Measure the extent to which a company uses debt financing.
+
+### Debt-to-Equity Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Total Debt / Total Shareholders' Equity
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures financial leverage and risk
+- Higher ratio = more reliance on debt financing
+- Industry norms vary significantly (utilities vs tech)
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Conservative | < 0.3 |
+| Moderate | 0.3 - 0.8 |
+| Elevated | 0.8 - 2.0 |
+| High Risk | > 2.0 |
+
+### Interest Coverage Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Operating Income (EBIT) / Interest Expense
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures ability to service debt from operating earnings
+- Below 1.5x is a red flag for lenders
+- Critical for credit analysis
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Distressed | < 2.0 |
+| Adequate | 2.0 - 5.0 |
+| Strong | 5.0 - 10.0 |
+| Very Strong | > 10.0 |
+
+### Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
+
+**Formula:** Operating Cash Flow / Total Debt Service
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Cash-based measure of debt servicing capacity
+- Includes principal repayments (unlike interest coverage)
+- Required by many loan covenants
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Default Risk | < 1.0 |
+| Minimum | 1.0 - 1.5 |
+| Comfortable | 1.5 - 2.5 |
+| Strong | > 2.5 |
+
+## 4. Efficiency Ratios
+
+Measure how effectively a company uses its assets and manages operations.
+
+### Asset Turnover
+
+**Formula:** Revenue / Total Assets
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures revenue generated per dollar of assets
+- Higher indicates more efficient asset utilization
+- Inversely related to profit margins (DuPont)
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Industry | Typical Range |
+|----------|--------------|
+| Retail | 2.0 - 3.0 |
+| Manufacturing | 0.8 - 1.5 |
+| Utilities | 0.3 - 0.5 |
+| Technology | 0.5 - 1.0 |
+
+### Inventory Turnover
+
+**Formula:** COGS / Average Inventory
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures how quickly inventory is sold
+- Low turnover suggests overstock or obsolescence risk
+- High turnover may indicate strong sales or thin inventory
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Slow | < 4x |
+| Average | 4x - 8x |
+| Efficient | 8x - 12x |
+| Very Efficient | > 12x |
+
+### Receivables Turnover
+
+**Formula:** Revenue / Accounts Receivable
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Measures efficiency of credit and collections
+- Higher turnover means faster collections
+- Monitor trends for credit policy changes
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Slow | < 6x |
+| Average | 6x - 10x |
+| Efficient | 10x - 15x |
+| Very Efficient | > 15x |
+
+### Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
+
+**Formula:** 365 / Receivables Turnover
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Average days to collect payment after a sale
+- Lower DSO = faster cash conversion
+- Compare against payment terms
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Excellent | < 30 days |
+| Good | 30 - 45 days |
+| Acceptable | 45 - 60 days |
+| Concern | > 60 days |
+
+## 5. Valuation Ratios
+
+Measure a company's market value relative to financial metrics.
+
+### Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Share Price / Earnings Per Share
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Most widely used valuation metric
+- High P/E suggests growth expectations or overvaluation
+- Use trailing (TTM) and forward P/E for comparison
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Value | < 10x |
+| Fair | 10x - 20x |
+| Growth | 20x - 35x |
+| Premium | > 35x |
+
+### Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Share Price / Book Value Per Share
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Compares market value to accounting value
+- Below 1.0 may indicate undervaluation or distress
+- Most useful for asset-heavy industries
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Undervalued | < 1.0 |
+| Fair | 1.0 - 2.5 |
+| Premium | 2.5 - 5.0 |
+| Rich | > 5.0 |
+
+### Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Market Cap / Revenue
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Useful for companies without positive earnings
+- Compare within industry only
+- Lower = potentially better value
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Value | < 1.0 |
+| Fair | 1.0 - 3.0 |
+| Growth | 3.0 - 8.0 |
+| Premium | > 8.0 |
+
+### EV/EBITDA
+
+**Formula:** Enterprise Value / EBITDA
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Capital-structure-neutral valuation metric
+- Preferred for M&A analysis and leveraged buyouts
+- More comparable across capital structures than P/E
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Value | < 6x |
+| Fair | 6x - 12x |
+| Growth | 12x - 20x |
+| Premium | > 20x |
+
+### PEG Ratio
+
+**Formula:** P/E Ratio / Earnings Growth Rate (%)
+
+**Interpretation:**
+
+- Growth-adjusted P/E ratio
+- PEG of 1.0 suggests fair valuation relative to growth
+- Below 1.0 may indicate undervaluation
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Undervalued | < 0.5 |
+| Fair | 0.5 - 1.0 |
+| Fully Valued | 1.0 - 2.0 |
+| Overvalued | > 2.0 |
+
+## Ratio Analysis Best Practices
+
+1. **Compare within industry** - Ratios vary significantly across sectors
+2. **Analyze trends** - A single period snapshot is insufficient; look at 3-5 year trends
+3. **Use multiple ratios** - No single ratio tells the complete story
+4. **Consider context** - Accounting policies, business cycle, and company stage matter
+5. **DuPont decomposition** - Break ROE into margin, turnover, and leverage components
+6. **Peer comparison** - Compare against direct competitors, not just broad benchmarks
+7. **Watch for manipulation** - Revenue recognition changes, off-balance-sheet items, and one-time adjustments can distort ratios

package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/references/forecasting-best-practices.md

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+# Forecasting Best Practices
+
+Comprehensive reference for financial forecasting including driver-based models, rolling forecasts, accuracy improvement techniques, and scenario planning.
+
+## 1. Driver-Based Forecasting
+
+### Overview
+
+Driver-based forecasting models financial outcomes based on key business drivers rather than extrapolating from historical trends alone. This approach creates more transparent, actionable, and accurate forecasts.
+
+### Identifying Key Drivers
+
+**Revenue Drivers:**
+
+| Business Model        | Primary Drivers                      |
+| --------------------- | ------------------------------------ |
+| SaaS/Subscription     | Customers x ARPU x Retention Rate    |
+| E-commerce            | Visitors x Conversion Rate x AOV     |
+| Manufacturing         | Units x Price per Unit               |
+| Professional Services | Headcount x Utilization x Bill Rate  |
+| Retail                | Stores x Revenue per Store (or sqft) |
+| Marketplace           | GMV x Take Rate                      |
+
+**Cost Drivers:**
+
+| Category          | Common Drivers                                         |
+| ----------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ |
+| COGS              | Revenue x (1 - Gross Margin) or Units x Unit Cost      |
+| Headcount Costs   | Employees x Average Compensation x (1 + Benefits Rate) |
+| Sales & Marketing | Revenue x S&M % or CAC x New Customers                 |
+| R&D               | Engineering Headcount x Avg Salary                     |
+| G&A               | Headcount-based + fixed costs                          |
+| CapEx             | Revenue x CapEx Intensity or Project-based             |
+
+### Building a Driver-Based Model
+
+**Step 1: Map the value chain**
+
+- Revenue = f(volume drivers, pricing drivers, mix drivers)
+- Costs = f(variable drivers, fixed components, step functions)
+
+**Step 2: Establish driver relationships**
+
+- Linear: Revenue = Units x Price
+- Non-linear: Revenue = Base x (1 + Growth Rate)^t
+- Step function: Facilities costs that jump at capacity thresholds
+
+**Step 3: Validate driver assumptions**
+
+- Compare driver values to historical actuals
+- Benchmark against industry data
+- Stress-test extreme values
+
+**Step 4: Build sensitivity**
+
+- Identify which drivers have the largest impact on output
+- Quantify the range of reasonable values for each driver
+- Create scenario combinations
+
+### Driver Sensitivity Matrix
+
+Rank drivers by impact and uncertainty:
+
+|                      | High Impact                           | Low Impact                   |
+| -------------------- | ------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- |
+| **High Uncertainty** | Model these carefully, run scenarios  | Monitor but don't over-model |
+| **Low Uncertainty**  | Get these right; high accuracy needed | Use simple assumptions       |
+
+## 2. Rolling Forecasts
+
+### What Is a Rolling Forecast?
+
+A rolling forecast continuously extends the forecast horizon as each period closes. Unlike a static annual budget, a rolling forecast always looks forward the same number of periods (typically 12-18 months).
+
+### Rolling Forecast vs Annual Budget
+
+| Feature          | Annual Budget      | Rolling Forecast       |
+| ---------------- | ------------------ | ---------------------- |
+| Time Horizon     | Fixed (Jan-Dec)    | Rolling (12-18 months) |
+| Update Frequency | Once per year      | Monthly or quarterly   |
+| Detail Level     | Very detailed      | Driver-level           |
+| Preparation Time | 3-6 months         | 2-5 days per cycle     |
+| Relevance        | Declines over time | Stays current          |
+| Flexibility      | Rigid              | Adaptive               |
+
+### Implementation Steps
+
+1. **Select the horizon** - 12 months rolling is most common (some use 18 months for CapEx planning)
+2. **Define update cadence** - Monthly for volatile businesses; quarterly for stable ones
+3. **Choose the right detail** - Driver-level, not line-item detail
+4. **Automate data feeds** - Reduce manual effort per cycle
+5. **Separate actuals from forecast** - Clear delineation between reported and projected periods
+6. **Track forecast accuracy** - Measure MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) over time
+
+### 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast
+
+A specialized rolling forecast for liquidity management:
+
+**Structure:**
+
+- Week-by-week cash inflows and outflows
+- Opening and closing cash balances
+- Minimum cash threshold alerts
+
+**Key Components:**
+| Inflows | Outflows |
+|---------|----------|
+| Customer collections (by aging) | Payroll (fixed cadence) |
+| Other receivables | Rent / Lease payments |
+| Asset sales | Vendor payments (by terms) |
+| Financing proceeds | Debt service |
+| Tax refunds | Tax payments |
+| Other income | Capital expenditures |
+
+**Collection Modeling:**
+
+- Apply collection rates by customer segment or aging bucket
+- Model DSO trends to project collection timing
+- Account for seasonal patterns in payment behavior
+
+## 3. Accuracy Improvement
+
+### Measuring Forecast Accuracy
+
+**Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE):**
+
+```
+MAPE = (1/n) x Sum of |Actual - Forecast| / |Actual| x 100%
+```
+
+**Accuracy Benchmarks:**
+| MAPE | Rating |
+|------|--------|
+| < 5% | Excellent |
+| 5% - 10% | Good |
+| 10% - 20% | Acceptable |
+| > 20% | Needs improvement |
+
+**Weighted MAPE (WMAPE):**
+Use when line items vary significantly in magnitude - weights errors by actual values.
+
+### Techniques to Improve Accuracy
+
+**1. Bias Detection and Correction**
+
+- Track directional bias (consistently over or under forecasting)
+- Calculate mean signed error to detect systematic bias
+- Adjust driver assumptions to correct persistent bias
+
+**2. Variance Analysis Loop**
+
+- After each period closes, compare actual vs forecast
+- Identify root causes of significant variances
+- Update driver assumptions based on learnings
+- Document what changed and why
+
+**3. Ensemble Approach**
+
+- Combine multiple forecasting methods
+- Blend statistical (trend) with judgmental (management input)
+- Weight methods by their historical accuracy
+
+**4. Granularity Optimization**
+
+- Forecast at the right level of detail - not too aggregated, not too granular
+- Product/segment level usually more accurate than single top-line
+- Aggregate bottom-up forecasts for total, then adjust
+
+**5. Leading Indicators**
+
+- Identify metrics that predict financial outcomes 1-3 months ahead
+- Pipeline/bookings predict revenue
+- Hiring plans predict headcount costs
+- Customer churn signals predict retention revenue
+
+### Common Accuracy Killers
+
+1. **Anchoring bias** - Over-relying on last year's numbers
+2. **Optimism bias** - Systematic overestimation of growth
+3. **Lack of accountability** - No one tracks forecast vs actual
+4. **Stale assumptions** - Not updating for market changes
+5. **Missing data** - Forecasting without key driver inputs
+6. **Over-precision** - False precision in uncertain environments
+
+## 4. Scenario Planning
+
+### Three-Scenario Framework
+
+| Scenario      | Description                                     | Probability |
+| ------------- | ----------------------------------------------- | ----------- |
+| **Base Case** | Most likely outcome based on current trajectory | 50-60%      |
+| **Bull Case** | Favorable conditions, upside realization        | 15-25%      |
+| **Bear Case** | Adverse conditions, downside risks              | 15-25%      |
+
+### Scenario Construction
+
+**Base Case:**
+
+- Continuation of current trends
+- Management's operational plan
+- Market consensus assumptions
+- Normal competitive dynamics
+
+**Bull Case (apply selectively, not uniformly):**
+
+- Faster customer acquisition or market adoption
+- Successful product launch or expansion
+- Favorable macro conditions
+- Competitor weakness or exit
+- Margin expansion from operating leverage
+
+**Bear Case (be realistic, not catastrophic):**
+
+- Slower growth or market contraction
+- Increased competition or pricing pressure
+- Key customer or contract loss
+- Supply chain disruption
+- Regulatory headwinds
+
+### Scenario Variables
+
+Map each scenario to specific driver values:
+
+| Driver              | Bear | Base | Bull |
+| ------------------- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
+| Revenue Growth      | +2%  | +8%  | +15% |
+| Gross Margin        | 35%  | 40%  | 43%  |
+| Customer Churn      | 8%   | 5%   | 3%   |
+| New Customers/Month | 50   | 100  | 180  |
+| Price Increase      | 0%   | 3%   | 5%   |
+
+### Presenting Scenarios
+
+1. **Show the range** - Management needs to see the potential outcomes
+2. **Quantify the gap** - Dollar impact of bull vs bear on key metrics
+3. **Identify triggers** - What conditions would cause each scenario
+4. **Define actions** - What levers to pull in each scenario
+5. **Assign probabilities** - Not all scenarios are equally likely
+
+## 5. Forecast Communication
+
+### Stakeholder Needs
+
+| Audience         | Needs                                                   |
+| ---------------- | ------------------------------------------------------- |
+| Board            | High-level scenarios, key risks, strategic implications |
+| CEO/CFO          | Detailed drivers, variance explanations, action items   |
+| Department Heads | Their specific budget vs forecast, headcount plans      |
+| Investors        | Revenue guidance, margin trajectory, capital allocation |
+| Operations       | Weekly/monthly targets, resource requirements           |
+
+### Presentation Framework
+
+1. **Executive summary** - Key metrics, direction of travel, confidence level
+2. **Variance bridge** - Walk from budget/prior forecast to current forecast
+3. **Driver analysis** - What changed and why
+4. **Scenario comparison** - Range of outcomes
+5. **Key risks and opportunities** - What could change the forecast
+6. **Action items** - Decisions needed based on forecast
+
+### Forecast Cadence
+
+| Activity                 | Frequency | Time Required |
+| ------------------------ | --------- | ------------- |
+| 13-week cash flow update | Weekly    | 1-2 hours     |
+| Rolling forecast update  | Monthly   | 1-2 days      |
+| Full reforecast          | Quarterly | 3-5 days      |
+| Annual budget/plan       | Annually  | 4-8 weeks     |
+| Board reporting          | Quarterly | 2-3 days      |
+
+## 6. Industry-Specific Considerations
+
+### SaaS Metrics in Forecasting
+
+- **MRR/ARR decomposition:** New, expansion, contraction, churn
+- **Cohort-based forecasting:** Forecast by customer cohort for retention accuracy
+- **Rule of 40:** Revenue growth % + Profit margin % should exceed 40%
+- **Net Revenue Retention:** Target > 110% for healthy SaaS
+- **CAC Payback:** Should be < 18 months
+
+### Retail Forecasting
+
+- **Same-store sales growth** as primary organic growth metric
+- **Seasonal decomposition** for accurate monthly/weekly forecasts
+- **Markdown optimization** impact on gross margin
+- **Inventory turns** drive working capital forecasts
+
+### Manufacturing Forecasting
+
+- **Order backlog** as a leading indicator
+- **Capacity constraints** creating step-function cost increases
+- **Raw material price forecasts** for COGS
+- **Maintenance CapEx vs growth CapEx** distinction
+- **Utilization rates** driving unit cost projections