@openfinclaw/findoo-datahub-plugin 2026.3.2 → 2026.3.10

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Files changed (67) hide show
  1. package/DESIGN.md +492 -151
  2. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/SKILL.md +192 -0
  3. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/assets/dcf_analysis_template.md +184 -0
  4. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/assets/expected_output.json +161 -0
  5. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/assets/forecast_report_template.md +177 -0
  6. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/assets/sample_financial_data.json +219 -0
  7. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/assets/variance_report_template.md +122 -0
  8. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/references/financial-ratios-guide.md +396 -0
  9. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/references/forecasting-best-practices.md +294 -0
  10. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/references/valuation-methodology.md +255 -0
  11. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py +406 -0
  12. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/scripts/dcf_valuation.py +449 -0
  13. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/scripts/forecast_builder.py +494 -0
  14. package/_vendor/claude-skills-finance/scripts/ratio_calculator.py +432 -0
  15. package/index.ts +332 -14
  16. package/openclaw.plugin.json +2 -2
  17. package/package.json +1 -1
  18. package/references/cn-market-specifics.md +165 -0
  19. package/references/crypto-analysis.md +635 -0
  20. package/references/financial-ratios-cn.md +452 -0
  21. package/references/hk-market-specifics.md +166 -0
  22. package/references/macro-cycle-cn.md +409 -0
  23. package/references/valuation-cn.md +427 -0
  24. package/skills/README.md +294 -0
  25. package/skills/a-concept-cycle/skill.md +200 -0
  26. package/skills/a-convertible-arb/skill.md +294 -0
  27. package/skills/a-dividend-king/skill.md +187 -0
  28. package/skills/a-earnings-season/skill.md +221 -0
  29. package/skills/a-index-timer/skill.md +192 -0
  30. package/skills/a-ipo-new/skill.md +297 -0
  31. package/skills/a-northbound-decoder/skill.md +185 -0
  32. package/skills/a-quant-board/skill.md +286 -0
  33. package/skills/a-share/skill.md +347 -0
  34. package/skills/a-share-radar/skill.md +185 -0
  35. package/skills/cross-asset/skill.md +202 -0
  36. package/skills/crypto/skill.md +269 -0
  37. package/skills/crypto-altseason/skill.md +208 -0
  38. package/skills/crypto-btc-cycle/skill.md +231 -0
  39. package/skills/crypto-defi-yield/skill.md +181 -0
  40. package/skills/crypto-funding-arb/skill.md +158 -0
  41. package/skills/crypto-stablecoin-flow/skill.md +149 -0
  42. package/skills/data-query/skill.md +124 -30
  43. package/skills/derivatives/skill.md +188 -35
  44. package/skills/etf-fund/skill.md +216 -0
  45. package/skills/factor-screen/skill.md +186 -0
  46. package/skills/hk-china-internet/skill.md +190 -0
  47. package/skills/hk-dividend-harvest/skill.md +192 -0
  48. package/skills/hk-hsi-pulse/skill.md +154 -0
  49. package/skills/hk-southbound-alpha/skill.md +163 -0
  50. package/skills/hk-stock/skill.md +295 -0
  51. package/skills/macro/skill.md +244 -53
  52. package/skills/risk-monitor/skill.md +171 -0
  53. package/skills/us-dividend/skill.md +162 -0
  54. package/skills/us-earnings/skill.md +149 -0
  55. package/skills/us-equity/skill.md +235 -0
  56. package/skills/us-etf/skill.md +261 -0
  57. package/skills/us-sector-rotation/skill.md +223 -0
  58. package/src/config.ts +4 -5
  59. package/src/datahub-client.test.ts +4 -7
  60. package/src/datahub-client.ts +6 -1
  61. package/src/register-tools.ts +720 -0
  62. package/src/tool-helpers.ts +89 -0
  63. package/test/e2e/l3-gateway-bootstrap.live.test.ts +339 -0
  64. package/test/e2e/l4-skill-tool-chain.live.test.ts +465 -0
  65. package/skills/crypto-defi/skill.md +0 -69
  66. package/skills/equity/skill.md +0 -64
  67. package/skills/market-radar/skill.md +0 -47
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+ # Findoo DataHub Skills Catalog
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+
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+ > 33 financial analysis skills covering A-share, HK, US, Crypto markets and cross-asset scenarios.
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+ > Each skill is a `skill.md` file that guides LLM routing, tool selection, and analysis patterns.
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+
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+ ## Quick Stats
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+
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+ | Market | Count | Skills |
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+ | ------------ | ------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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+ | A-Share | 10 | a-share, a-share-radar, a-northbound-decoder, a-index-timer, a-earnings-season, a-dividend-king, a-concept-cycle, a-convertible-arb, a-ipo-new, a-quant-board |
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+ | HK | 5 | hk-stock, hk-hsi-pulse, hk-dividend-harvest, hk-southbound-alpha, hk-china-internet |
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+ | US | 5 | us-equity, us-earnings, us-dividend, us-etf, us-sector-rotation |
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+ | Crypto | 6 | crypto, crypto-funding-arb, crypto-defi-yield, crypto-btc-cycle, crypto-stablecoin-flow, crypto-altseason |
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+ | Cross-Market | 7 | macro, derivatives, etf-fund, factor-screen, cross-asset, risk-monitor, data-query |
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+ | **Total** | **33** | |
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## A-Share (10)
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+
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+ ### fin-a-share
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+
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+ **Individual A-share deep analysis.** CAS fundamentals (income/balance/cash/ratios), chip structure (shareholders/pledge/lock-up/repurchase), policy-driven sector rotation, capital flow cross-validation.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock`, `fin_market`, `fin_index`, `fin_ta`
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+ - Triggers: A-share codes (600xxx.SH/000xxx.SZ/300xxx.SZ), Chinese company names
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+
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+ ### fin-a-share-radar
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+
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+ **Market-wide A-share monitoring.** Dragon-tiger list, limit-up/down stats, block trades, sector money flow, margin trading, Stock Connect flows, IPO calendar.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_market`
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+ - Triggers: market overview, daily recap, unusual activity, institutional flows
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+
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+ ### fin-a-northbound-decoder
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+
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+ **Northbound capital decoder.** HSGT daily flows, top 10 holdings, trend analysis, northbound vs domestic divergence, foreign ownership limits.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_market` (flow/hsgt_flow, flow/hsgt_top10)
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+ - Triggers: northbound capital, foreign buying, HSGT flows, smart money tracking
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+
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+ ### fin-a-index-timer
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+
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+ **Index valuation timer for DCA.** PE/PB percentile scoring, traffic-light signal system, dynamic dollar-cost averaging, multi-index comparison, equity-bond spread.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_index`, `fin_macro`
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+ - Triggers: index valuation, DCA timing, PE percentile, CSI 300/500 allocation
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+
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+ ### fin-a-earnings-season
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+
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+ **A-share earnings season analysis.** Earnings calendar, consensus surprise, earnings-mine detection (goodwill/receivables/cash flow), post-earnings review.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock` (fundamental/\*)
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+ - Triggers: earnings reports, financial disclosure schedule, earnings mines
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+
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+ ### fin-a-dividend-king
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+
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+ **A-share dividend strategy.** Continuous dividend history, yield screening, payout safety, dividend trap detection, tax-aware income planning (holding period tax rules).
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock` (fundamental/dividends, fundamental/ratios)
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+ - Triggers: high-dividend A-shares, income investing, dividend tax rules
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+
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+ ### fin-a-concept-cycle
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+
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+ **Concept/theme hype cycle analysis.** Lifecycle stage detection (launch/ferment/climax/decay), leader identification, limit-up stats, decay warning.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_index` (thematic/ths\_\*), `fin_market` (market/limit_list)
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+ - Triggers: concept still tradeable, hot sector stage, theme rally duration
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+
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+ ### fin-a-convertible-arb
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+
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+ **A-share convertible bond strategy.** Double-low screening, forced-redemption timing, conversion-price reset (xia xiu) analysis, YTM debt-floor valuation, credit risk assessment. T+0 trading, A-share unique asset class.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_derivatives` (convertible/\*), `fin_stock`, `fin_ta`
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+ - Triggers: convertible bonds (codes 11xxxx.SH/12xxxx.SZ), double-low strategy, forced redemption
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+
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+ ### fin-a-ipo-new
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+
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+ **A-share IPO subscription guide.** New share calendar, quality assessment, break-even risk warning, quota calculator, post-listing tracking. Covers differences across main board / ChiNext / STAR / BSE.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_market` (discovery/new_share), `fin_stock` (profile), `fin_index`
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+ - Triggers: IPO subscription, new share calendar, quota eligibility, break-even risk
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+
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+ ### fin-a-quant-board
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+
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+ **Limit-up board quantitative analysis + theme tracking.** Board ladder (consecutive limit-up tiers), theme main-line detection, sentiment cycle positioning (ice/repair/ferment/climax/diverge/decay), leader progression forecast, dragon-tiger institutional analysis, sector rotation rhythm.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_market` (market/limit*list, market/top_list, market/top_inst), `fin_index` (thematic/ths*\*)
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+ - Triggers: limit-up counts, consecutive boards, sentiment cycle, theme main lines, leader stocks
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## Hong Kong (5)
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+
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+ ### fin-hk-stock
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+
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+ **Individual HK stock analysis.** IFRS financials, AH premium arbitrage calculation, southbound capital tracking, liquidity trap detection, dividend tax tiers (H-share 20% / red-chip 10%), HKD peg rate transmission via HIBOR.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock`, `fin_market`, `fin_macro`
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+ - Triggers: HK codes (00700.HK/09988.HK), AH premium, southbound flow
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+
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+ ### fin-hk-hsi-pulse
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+
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+ **HSI valuation pulse.** PE/PB percentile, equity risk premium (ERP = 1/PE - HIBOR), historical bottom analogy, regime overlay.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_index`, `fin_macro` (HIBOR)
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+ - Triggers: HSI valuation, Hang Seng PE percentile, bottom-fishing HK
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+
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+ ### fin-hk-dividend-harvest
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+
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+ **HK dividend strategy.** Tax-adjusted yield, dividend safety score, liquidity filter, yield trap detection. Covers 3-tier tax structure.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock` (fundamental/dividends, fundamental/ratios)
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+ - Triggers: HK high-yield stocks, dividend income, after-tax yield comparison
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+
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+ ### fin-hk-southbound-alpha
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+
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+ **Southbound capital alpha.** Daily/monthly net buy trends, accumulation signals (5-day streak, single-day spike), sector attribution, contrarian bottom-fishing indicator.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_market` (flow/ggt_daily, flow/ggt_monthly)
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+ - Triggers: southbound flow trends, mainland money into HK, Stock Connect net buy
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+
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+ ### fin-hk-china-internet
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+
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+ **China Internet sector basket.** 5-stock dashboard (Tencent/Alibaba/Meituan/JD/Bilibili), valuation band percentiles, fundamental scorecard, relative strength, regime overlay.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock`, `fin_index`
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+ - Triggers: China tech stocks, KWEB, China Internet valuation, Tencent vs Alibaba
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## US Market (5)
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+
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+ ### fin-us-equity
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+
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+ **Individual US stock analysis.** GAAP financials, earnings beat/miss with revision cycle, options strategy selection (IV/Greeks), Fed rate sensitivity, sector rotation.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock`, `fin_derivatives` (options/chains)
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+ - Triggers: US tickers (AAPL/NVDA/TSLA/MSFT), US earnings, options strategies
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+
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+ ### fin-us-earnings
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+
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+ **US earnings season analysis.** Earnings calendar, historical beat/miss patterns, pre-earnings IV/straddle pricing, post-earnings price reaction stats.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock`, `fin_derivatives`
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+ - Triggers: earnings dates, beat/miss history, earnings straddle, IV crush
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+
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+ ### fin-us-dividend
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+
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+ **US dividend strategy.** Aristocrat/Achiever/King classification, payout safety scoring, dividend yield vs Treasury spread, total shareholder yield (dividend + buyback).
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock` (fundamental/dividends, fundamental/ratios)
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+ - Triggers: dividend stocks, passive income, payout safety, ex-dividend dates
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+
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+ ### fin-us-etf
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+
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+ **US ETF analysis.** SPY/QQQ/VOO/VTI/SCHD comparison, expense ratio + AUM + tracking error framework, core-satellite portfolio construction, sector ETF rotation, DCA simulation.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_index`, `fin_stock`
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+ - Triggers: US ETF selection, passive investing, ETF comparison, sector ETFs
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+
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+ ### fin-us-sector-rotation
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+
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+ **US sector rotation.** GICS 11-sector ETF scoreboard (XLK/XLF/XLE...), economic cycle positioning, sector vs SPY relative strength, valuation by sector.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_index`, `fin_stock`, `fin_macro`
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+ - Triggers: sector rotation, which industry to buy, economic cycle stage
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## Crypto (6)
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+
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+ ### fin-crypto
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+
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+ **General crypto analysis.** CEX market data (ticker/orderbook/funding rate), DeFi protocols (TVL/fees/yields/stablecoins via DefiLlama), market metrics (CoinGecko). 21 DataHub endpoints.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_crypto`
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+ - Triggers: crypto prices, DeFi protocols, funding rates, stablecoin flows, token valuation
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+
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+ ### fin-crypto-funding-arb
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+
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+ **Funding rate arbitrage.** Perpetual funding rates, delta-neutral yield, cross-exchange rate spread, annualized return calculator.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_crypto` (market/funding_rate, market/ticker)
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+ - Triggers: funding rate, delta-neutral strategy, basis trading, perpetual vs spot arb
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+
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+ ### fin-crypto-defi-yield
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+
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+ **DeFi yield analysis.** Yield farming opportunities, protocol safety scoring, TVL trend verification, risk-adjusted return comparison across chains.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_crypto` (defi/\*)
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+ - Triggers: DeFi yields, staking APY, lending rates, protocol safety
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+
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+ ### fin-crypto-btc-cycle
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+
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+ **BTC halving cycle analysis.** Cycle positioning (days since halving), four-phase detection (accumulation/markup/euphoria/decline), multi-signal validation.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_crypto`, `fin_data_ohlcv`, `fin_data_regime`
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+ - Triggers: BTC cycle position, halving impact, bull/bear phase
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+
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+ ### fin-crypto-stablecoin-flow
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+
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+ **Stablecoin capital flow analysis.** USDT/USDC/DAI market cap trends, 4-week rolling inflow as leading indicator, chain distribution, stablecoin-to-total-market ratio.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_crypto` (defi/stablecoins, market/tickers)
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+ - Triggers: stablecoin supply, capital inflow/outflow, OTC demand
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+
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+ ### fin-crypto-altseason
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+
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+ **Altseason timing.** BTC dominance trend, Altseason Index (Top 50 vs BTC), ETH/BTC ratio, category rotation radar, capital rotation ladder.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_crypto` (market/ticker, market/tickers)
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+ - Triggers: altseason, BTC dominance, ETH/BTC ratio, altcoin rotation
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## Cross-Market (7)
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+
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+ ### fin-macro
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+
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+ **Macroeconomic analysis.** China GDP/CPI/PPI/PMI/M2/social financing, interest rates (Shibor/LPR/Libor/Hibor), CN/US treasury yields, FX rates, economic calendar.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_macro`
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+ - Triggers: economic indicators, monetary policy, rate differentials, yield curve
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+
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+ ### fin-derivatives
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+
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+ **Derivatives analysis.** Futures (daily/holdings/settlement/curve), options (basic/daily/chains with Greeks), convertible bonds. 12 DataHub endpoints.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_derivatives`
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+ - Triggers: futures prices, term structure, options strategies, Greeks
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+
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+ ### fin-etf-fund
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+
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+ **ETF and fund analysis.** NAV, holdings, manager track record, fees, index tracking, adjusted NAV.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_index`, `fin_stock`
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+ - Triggers: ETF selection, fund comparison, portfolio construction
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+
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+ ### fin-factor-screen
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+ **Multi-factor stock screening.** Value (PE/PB/dividend), quality (ROE/ROIC/OCF), growth (revenue/earnings), momentum (price/RSI/SMA), capital flow factors.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_stock`, `fin_index`, `fin_ta`
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+ - Triggers: screen stocks by criteria, factor portfolios, stock ranking
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+
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+ ### fin-cross-asset
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+ **Cross-asset correlation and allocation.** Stock-bond-FX-commodity linkage, Merrill Clock positioning, risk parity signals.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_macro`, `fin_index`, `fin_market`, `fin_derivatives`
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+ - Triggers: asset allocation, cross-market correlation, stock-bond relationship
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+
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+ ### fin-risk-monitor
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+ **Risk monitoring dashboard.** Market regime detection, rate risk (Shibor/treasury spread), leverage risk (margin), foreign capital flows, macro warning signals.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_data_regime`, `fin_macro`, `fin_market`, `fin_index`
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+ - Triggers: market risk assessment, stress signals, hedging recommendations
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+
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+ ### fin-data-query
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+
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+ **Generic DataHub query fallback.** Access any of 168+ financial data endpoints by path. OHLCV candle data with caching, market regime detection, supported markets listing.
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+
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+ - Tools: `fin_data_ohlcv`, `fin_data_regime`, `fin_query`
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+ - Triggers: uncommon endpoints, raw data access, edge-case queries
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## Routing Architecture
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+
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+ ```
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+ User Query
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+ |
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+ v
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+ LLM reads skill descriptions (name + "Use when" + "NOT for")
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+ |
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+ v
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+ Selects best-match skill.md
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+ |
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+ v
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+ Follows Analysis Patterns (step-by-step with tool calls)
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+ |
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+ v
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+ Applies Response Guidelines (format, disclaimers, data sources)
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+ ```
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+
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+ **Design Principles:**
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+
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+ 1. **Decision Map** — Each skill has numbered analysis steps with conditional branches
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+ 2. **Precise Routing** — `When to Use` + `When NOT to Use` prevent misrouting
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+ 3. **Financial Intelligence** — Domain-specific knowledge embedded (tax rules, trading rules, risk models)
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+ 4. **Guide LLM Behavior** — Analysis patterns with warning/insight annotations guide reasoning
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+ 5. **Data Transparency** — Data Notes section documents latency, update frequency, and limitations
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+ ---
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+ name: fin-a-concept-cycle
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+ description: "A-share concept/theme hype cycle analysis — lifecycle stage detection (launch/ferment/climax/decay), leader identification, limit-up statistics, decay warning. Use when: user asks if a concept/theme is still tradeable, what stage a hot sector is in, which concepts are trending, or how long a theme rally lasts. NOT for: individual stock deep analysis (use fin-a-share), policy-to-sector mapping (use fin-a-policy-alpha), market-wide sentiment/limit-up board (use fin-a-quant-board), factor screening (use fin-factor-screen)."
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+ metadata:
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+ {
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+ "openclaw":
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+ { "emoji": "\ud83c\udf00", "requires": { "extensions": ["findoo-datahub-plugin"] } },
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+ }
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+ ---
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+
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+ # A-Share Concept Hype Cycle
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+
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+ Use **fin_index** (thematic endpoints) and **fin_market** to quantify concept/theme speculation lifecycle in A-shares. Core insight: concept hype follows a predictable 4-stage lifecycle (launch -> ferment -> climax -> decay), and each stage has measurable signals.
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+
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+ ## When to Use
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+
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+ - "AI概念还能追吗" / "is the AI concept still tradeable"
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+ - "机器人板块到什么阶段了" / "what stage is the robotics sector in"
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+ - "概念股炒作周期怎么看" / "how to read concept hype cycles"
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+ - "现在什么概念最热" / "which concepts are hottest right now"
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+ - "这个题材还能持续多久" / "how long will this theme last"
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+ - "龙头是哪只" / "which stock is the leader"
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+ - "板块要退潮了吗" / "is the sector about to fade"
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+
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+ ## When NOT to Use
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+
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+ - 个股基本面/筹码/技术面分析 -> use `/fin-a-share`
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+ - 政策出台到板块映射 -> use `/fin-a-policy-alpha`
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+ - 涨停板/情绪周期/赚钱效应 -> use `/fin-a-quant-board`
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+ - 北向资金方向 -> use `/fin-a-northbound-decoder`
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+ - 量化多因子选股 -> use `/fin-factor-screen`
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+ - 市场整体雷达/复盘 -> use `/fin-a-share-radar`
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+ - 高股息/红利策略 -> use `/fin-a-dividend-king`
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+ - 宏观经济数据 -> use `/fin-macro`
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+
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+ ## Tools & Parameters
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+
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+ ### fin_index -- Concept/Theme Data
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+
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+ | Parameter | Type | Required | Format | Default | Example |
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+ | ---------- | ------ | -------- | -------------------- | ------- | ------------------ |
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+ | symbol | string | Depends | THS code `XXXXXX.TI` | -- | 885760.TI |
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+ | endpoint | string | Yes | see table below | -- | thematic/ths_index |
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+ | start_date | string | No | YYYY-MM-DD | -- | 2026-02-01 |
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+ | end_date | string | No | YYYY-MM-DD | -- | 2026-03-07 |
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+ | limit | number | No | 1-5000 | 200 | 30 |
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+
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+ #### Endpoints
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+
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+ | endpoint | Description | Example |
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+ | --------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
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+ | `thematic/ths_index` | All THS concept indices | `fin_index(endpoint="thematic/ths_index")` |
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+ | `thematic/ths_daily` | Concept daily OHLCV | `fin_index(symbol="885760.TI", endpoint="thematic/ths_daily", limit=20)` |
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+ | `thematic/ths_member` | Concept constituent stocks | `fin_index(symbol="885760.TI", endpoint="thematic/ths_member")` |
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+
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+ ### fin_market -- Limit-Up & Institutional Flow
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+
58
+ | Parameter | Type | Required | Format | Default | Example |
59
+ | ---------- | ------ | -------- | ---------- | ------- | ----------------- |
60
+ | endpoint | string | Yes | see table | -- | market/limit_list |
61
+ | trade_date | string | Depends | YYYY-MM-DD | -- | 2026-03-07 |
62
+ | date | string | Depends | YYYY-MM-DD | -- | 2026-03-07 |
63
+
64
+ #### Endpoints
65
+
66
+ | endpoint | Description | Example |
67
+ | -------------------- | ------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
68
+ | `market/limit_list` | Limit-up/down stats | `fin_market(endpoint="market/limit_list", trade_date="2026-03-07")` |
69
+ | `market/top_list` | Dragon-tiger list | `fin_market(endpoint="market/top_list", date="2026-03-07")` |
70
+ | `market/top_inst` | Institutional seats | `fin_market(endpoint="market/top_inst", date="2026-03-07")` |
71
+ | `moneyflow/industry` | Sector capital flow | `fin_market(endpoint="moneyflow/industry", trade_date="2026-03-07")` |
72
+
73
+ ### fin_stock -- Individual Stock Validation
74
+
75
+ | Parameter | Type | Required | Format | Default | Example |
76
+ | --------- | ------ | -------- | -------------- | ------- | ---------------- |
77
+ | symbol | string | Yes | `{code}.SH/SZ` | -- | 300024.SZ |
78
+ | endpoint | string | Yes | see table | -- | price/historical |
79
+ | limit | number | No | 1-5000 | 200 | 20 |
80
+
81
+ #### Endpoints
82
+
83
+ | endpoint | Description | Example |
84
+ | ------------------ | ----------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- |
85
+ | `price/historical` | Stock daily OHLCV | `fin_stock(symbol="300024.SZ", endpoint="price/historical", limit=20)` |
86
+
87
+ ## Concept Lifecycle Model
88
+
89
+ ```
90
+ Stage 1: LAUNCH (Day 1-2)
91
+ Catalyst: news/policy/event triggers initial interest
92
+ Signals: 1-3 stocks limit-up, concept index +1-3%, low volume
93
+ Leader: first stock to hit limit-up = proto-leader
94
+ Action: early entry opportunity, small position
95
+
96
+ Stage 2: FERMENT (Day 3-5)
97
+ Signals: 5-15 stocks limit-up, concept index +3-8% cumulative,
98
+ volume 2-3x normal, dragon-tiger shows institutional buying
99
+ Leader: 2-4 consecutive limit-ups, highest recognition
100
+ Action: follow the leader, add on confirmation
101
+
102
+ Stage 3: CLIMAX (Day 6-8)
103
+ Signals: 15+ stocks limit-up, concept index acceleration slows,
104
+ turnover rate peaks (>8%), laggards start catching up
105
+ Leader: may show first "open limit-up" (封板后打开)
106
+ Action: DANGER ZONE -- do not chase, take partial profit
107
+
108
+ Stage 4: DECAY (Day 9+)
109
+ Signals: leader breaks consecutive limit-ups,
110
+ concept index falls while laggards still rise (divergence),
111
+ "大面" appears (limit-up to limit-down same day),
112
+ turnover drops sharply
113
+ Leader: drops while 2nd/3rd tier stocks have final spike
114
+ Action: EXIT -- concept is exhausted
115
+ ```
116
+
117
+ ## Concept Cycle Analysis Pattern
118
+
119
+ 1. **Identify the Concept** `fin_index(thematic/ths_index)` -- Find the THS concept code
120
+ - Search concept list by keyword (e.g., "机器人", "AI", "新能源")
121
+ - Note the concept code (e.g., 885760.TI) for subsequent queries
122
+ - If user mentions a stock, use `fin_index(thematic/ths_member)` to find which concepts it belongs to
123
+
124
+ 2. **Assess Current Stage** `fin_index(thematic/ths_daily, symbol=concept_code, limit=20)` -- Lifecycle positioning
125
+ - Calculate: cumulative gain from trough, daily gain slope, volume trend
126
+ - Day count: identify start date (first day of consecutive gains after flat period)
127
+ - Turnover rate trend: rising = still in play; peaking = climax; falling = decay
128
+ - Compare against lifecycle model above to determine current stage
129
+
130
+ 3. **Limit-Up Validation** `fin_market(market/limit_list, trade_date=recent_dates)` -- Breadth and momentum
131
+ - Count limit-up stocks related to this concept across last 3-5 days
132
+ - Trend: expanding (ferment) vs stable (climax) vs contracting (decay)
133
+ - Consecutive limit-up distribution: how many are 2-board, 3-board, etc.
134
+ - "Big face" count (涨停后炸板 or 天地板): >2 per day = decay signal
135
+
136
+ 4. **Leader Identification** `fin_index(thematic/ths_member)` + `fin_stock(price/historical)` -- Who leads
137
+ - Get concept constituent stocks
138
+ - Filter: first to limit-up + most consecutive limit-ups + highest total gain
139
+ - Leader traits: earliest start + highest board count + strongest recognition + volume holds
140
+ - If leader breaks board (断板): concept likely entering climax/decay transition
141
+
142
+ 5. **Capital Flow Cross-Check** `fin_market(moneyflow/industry)` + `fin_market(market/top_list)` -- Smart money direction
143
+ - Sector capital flow: net inflow = concept has real money backing; net outflow = fading
144
+ - Dragon-tiger list: institutional seats buying = institutional participation (longer cycle)
145
+ - Dragon-tiger list: only retail/游资 seats = pure speculation (shorter cycle, faster decay)
146
+ - Northbound flow into concept stocks (optional): `fin_market(flow/hsgt_top10)` -- foreign participation extends cycle
147
+
148
+ 6. **Decay Warning Synthesis** -- Combine all signals
149
+ - Leader breaks consecutive boards + concept index gain narrows + limit-up count drops 50% = DECAY CONFIRMED
150
+ - Laggards rising while leaders falling = final divergence phase (exit immediately)
151
+ - Turnover rate > 15% on concept index = exhaustion imminent
152
+ - All sector fund flow turns negative for 2+ consecutive days = funds exiting
153
+
154
+ ## Historical Concept Duration Reference
155
+
156
+ | Concept Type | Typical Duration | Leader Gain | Example |
157
+ | ----------------- | ---------------- | ----------- | --------------------------- |
158
+ | Policy-driven | 8-15 days | 50-100% | New energy 2021, Chips 2023 |
159
+ | Event-driven | 3-7 days | 30-60% | ChatGPT Feb 2023 |
160
+ | Earnings surprise | 5-10 days | 20-40% | Sector-wide beat |
161
+ | Pure speculation | 2-5 days | 20-50% | Meme-style themes |
162
+ | Tech revolution | 15-30 days | 80-200% | AI/Robotics 2024-2025 |
163
+
164
+ Duration affected by: policy reinforcement (extends), market regime (bull extends, bear shortens), institutional participation (extends), pure retail (shortens).
165
+
166
+ ## Data Notes
167
+
168
+ - **THS concept index**: Tonghuashun (iFinD) concept indices, updated EOD ~18:00 CST
169
+ - **Concept list**: `ths_index` returns all THS concepts (400+), filter by keyword
170
+ - **Limit-up data**: `limit_list` available T+1 after close
171
+ - **Dragon-tiger list**: only on days with unusual moves (not every day for every stock)
172
+ - **Day count**: manual calculation from concept daily data; no explicit "hype start date" field
173
+ - **Turnover rate**: available in `ths_daily` data for concept index level
174
+
175
+ ## Response Guidelines
176
+
177
+ ### Number Format
178
+
179
+ - Concept index gain: +12.5% (cumulative), +3.2% (daily)
180
+ - Limit-up count: 15 stocks (integer)
181
+ - Consecutive boards: 5-board (integer + "board/连板")
182
+ - Turnover rate: 8.3% (1 decimal)
183
+ - Day count: Day 5 of cycle (integer)
184
+ - Capital flow: net inflow 8.2 yi RMB
185
+
186
+ ### Must Include
187
+
188
+ - Current lifecycle stage (Launch/Ferment/Climax/Decay) with day count
189
+ - Leader stock name + board count + today's status
190
+ - Limit-up count trend (last 3 days minimum)
191
+ - At least one decay warning signal assessment
192
+ - Historical duration reference for similar concept type
193
+ - Clear action recommendation (enter/hold/exit/avoid)
194
+
195
+ ### Display Format
196
+
197
+ - Single concept analysis: stage diagram + leader + signals + recommendation
198
+ - Hot concept ranking: table (columns: concept / 5-day gain / stage / leader / limit-up count / recommendation)
199
+ - Always show the 4-stage lifecycle with current position marked
200
+ - Use directional language: "momentum building" / "peak approaching" / "fading fast"