@openfinclaw/findoo-datahub-plugin 2026.3.2 → 2026.3.10

package/skills/crypto-altseason/skill.md

@@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
+---
+name: fin-crypto-altseason
+description: "Crypto altseason timing — BTC dominance trend, Altseason Index (Top 50 vs BTC), ETH/BTC ratio, category rotation radar, capital rotation ladder (BTC→ETH→large ALT→mid-cap→meme). Use when: user asks about altseason, BTC dominance direction, ETH/BTC ratio, altcoin rotation, or 'should I switch from BTC to alts'. NOT for: BTC cycle analysis (use fin-crypto-btc-cycle), single coin lookup (use fin-crypto), DeFi yields (use fin-crypto-defi-yield), funding rate arbitrage (use fin-crypto-funding-arb)."
+metadata: { "openclaw": { "emoji": "🔄", "requires": { "extensions": ["findoo-datahub-plugin"] } } }
+---
+
+# Crypto Altseason Timing
+
+BTC dominance is the traffic light for altseason. This skill turns "feels like alts are pumping" into a quantifiable, actionable rotation timing system.
+
+> **Scope boundary:** This skill covers BTC→ALT capital rotation timing. For BTC's own halving cycle, use `/fin-crypto-btc-cycle`. For single-coin fundamental analysis, use `/fin-crypto`. For DeFi protocol yields, use `/fin-crypto-defi-yield`.
+
+## When to Use
+
+- "现在是山寨季吗" / "Is it altseason?"
+- "BTC dominance 在下降意味着什么" / "BTC dominance is dropping, what does it mean?"
+- "ETH/BTC 汇率怎么看" / "How is ETH/BTC doing?"
+- "该从 BTC 换到山寨了吗" / "Should I rotate from BTC to alts?"
+- "哪个赛道最近涨得好" / "Which crypto sector is pumping?"
+- "山寨季什么时候结束" / "When does altseason end?"
+- "大盘币 vs 小盘币表现" / "Large cap vs small cap crypto performance"
+
+## When NOT to Use
+
+- BTC 减半周期 / BTC halving cycle positioning → use `/fin-crypto-btc-cycle`
+- 单币查价 / 协议分析 / CEX 行情 → use `/fin-crypto`
+- DeFi 收益对比 / yield farming → use `/fin-crypto-defi-yield`
+- 资金费率套利 → use `/fin-crypto-funding-arb`
+- 稳定币资金流分析 → use `/fin-crypto-stablecoin-flow`
+- 宏观利率对 crypto 影响 → use `/fin-crypto-macro-bridge`
+- 美股行业轮动 → use `/fin-us-sector-rotation`
+
+## Tools & Parameters
+
+### fin_crypto — Core data
+
+| Parameter | Type   | Required | Format              | Default | Example           |
+| --------- | ------ | -------- | ------------------- | ------- | ----------------- |
+| endpoint  | string | Yes      | see endpoints below | —       | coin/global_stats |
+| symbol    | string | Depends  | pair / coin ID      | —       | ETH/BTC           |
+| limit     | number | No       | 1-250               | 100     | 50                |
+
+#### Key Endpoints
+
+| endpoint              | Description                  | Example                                                              |
+| --------------------- | ---------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
+| `coin/global_stats`   | BTC dominance (current snap) | `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/global_stats")`                           |
+| `coin/market`         | Top N coins by market cap    | `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/market", limit=50)`                       |
+| `coin/categories`     | Category/sector 7d% rankings | `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/categories")`                             |
+| `coin/trending`       | Trending / hot coins         | `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/trending")`                               |
+| `defi/chains`         | Chain-level TVL (ecosystem)  | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/chains")`                                 |
+| `market/funding_rate` | Funding rate (sentiment)     | `fin_crypto(endpoint="market/funding_rate", symbol="ETH/USDT:USDT")` |
+
+### fin_data_ohlcv — ETH/BTC K-line
+
+| Parameter | Type   | Required | Default | Example |
+| --------- | ------ | -------- | ------- | ------- |
+| symbol    | string | Yes      | —       | ETH/BTC |
+| market    | string | No       | crypto  | crypto  |
+| timeframe | string | No       | 1d      | 1d      |
+| limit     | number | No       | 200     | 90      |
+
+### Auxiliary Tools
+
+| tool              | use case                                         |
+| ----------------- | ------------------------------------------------ |
+| `fin_ta`          | RSI/SMA/MACD on ETH/BTC for trend confirmation   |
+| `fin_data_regime` | BTC regime (bull/bear) as altseason prerequisite |
+
+## Altseason Analysis Pattern
+
+### 1. BTC Dominance Assessment
+
+1. **BTC Dominance snapshot** `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/global_stats")` — Get current btc_dominance %
+   - ⚠️ `coin/global_stats` returns a single snapshot, NOT historical series. To assess trend, compare with known recent values or use BTC market cap / total market cap from `coin/market`
+   - 💡 BTC dominance is the single most important altseason indicator
+
+2. **BTC + market context** `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/market", limit=50)` — Top 50 coin performance
+   - Calculate: how many of Top 50 (excluding stablecoins) outperformed BTC over 7d/30d
+   - ⚠️ This is the Altseason Index calculation basis
+
+### 2. Altseason Index (Self-Calculated)
+
+```
+Count coins in Top 50 (excluding stablecoins + wrapped tokens) that outperformed BTC in 7d return.
+Altseason Index = outperformers / eligible_count × 100
+
+Interpretation:
+  > 75% = Altseason confirmed (strong rotation out of BTC)
+  50-75% = Transitional (rotation beginning)
+  25-50% = Neutral (mixed signals)
+  < 25% = Bitcoin Season (BTC dominates, alts lag)
+```
+
+### 3. Rotation Ladder Detection
+
+```
+BTC → ETH → Large ALT → Mid-cap ALT → Meme → TOP signal
+
+Step 1: fin_data_ohlcv(symbol="ETH/BTC", market="crypto", timeframe="1d", limit=30) → ETH/BTC trend
+Step 2: fin_ta(indicator="rsi", symbol="ETH/BTC", market="crypto") → momentum
+Step 3: fin_crypto(coin/market, limit=50) → stratify by market cap tiers:
+  - Tier 1 (>$50B): BTC, ETH
+  - Tier 2 ($10-50B): SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOT
+  - Tier 3 ($1-10B): mid-cap alts
+  - Tier 4 (<$1B): small-cap / meme
+```
+
+Rotation signal progression:
+
+- ⚠️ ETH/BTC breaking downtrend + RSI >50 = Rotation from BTC to ETH (Phase 1)
+- ⚠️ Tier 2 avg 7d return > BTC 7d return = Large-cap rotation (Phase 2)
+- ⚠️ Tier 3 avg 7d return > Tier 2 = Mid-cap rotation (Phase 3)
+- ⚠️ Meme category 7d% > +30% = Late-stage euphoria (Phase 4 — caution!)
+- 💡 Cross-validate with funding rate: ETH funding turning positive while BTC funding neutral = capital migrating
+
+### 4. Category Rotation Radar
+
+1. **Sector rankings** `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/categories")` — 7d% by category
+   - Top 5 categories by 7d performance = current hot sectors
+   - ⚠️ If Meme category leads for 2+ consecutive weeks = late-stage warning
+   - 💡 Cross-validate with `defi/chains`: if a category's chain TVL is also growing, the rotation has fundamental support
+
+2. **Ecosystem validation** `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/chains")` — Chain-level TVL
+   - Rising TVL on alt-L1/L2 chains = capital migration to altcoin ecosystems
+   - ⚠️ TVL rising but fees flat (from `defi/fees`) = incentive-driven, not organic
+
+### 5. Altseason Health Check (Composite)
+
+```
+Combine signals into a composite score (0-5):
+
+1. BTC dom trending down (7d) .............. +1
+2. Altseason Index > 50% ................... +1
+3. ETH/BTC in uptrend (above 20d SMA) ...... +1
+4. Top category 7d% > +15% ................. +1
+5. Meme category NOT leading ............... +1
+
+Score interpretation:
+  5/5 = Strong healthy altseason (rotate aggressively)
+  3-4 = Altseason developing (start positioning)
+  1-2 = Early / mixed signals (selective, stick to large caps)
+  0   = Bitcoin Season (stay in BTC or sidelines)
+```
+
+## Signal Quick-Reference
+
+### BTC Dominance + BTC Price Matrix
+
+| BTC Dominance | BTC Price | Signal          | Action                                |
+| ------------- | --------- | --------------- | ------------------------------------- |
+| dom ↓         | BTC ↑     | Altseason onset | Rotate BTC → ETH → ALT progressively  |
+| dom ↓         | BTC ↓     | Panic exit      | Risk-off, move to stablecoins         |
+| dom ↑         | BTC ↑     | Bitcoin Season  | Concentrate in BTC, trim alts         |
+| dom ↑         | BTC ↓     | ALT hemorrhage  | Worst scenario for alts, full defense |
+
+Threshold: dom 7d change > ±0.5% = trend signal; > ±2% = strong signal.
+
+### ETH/BTC as Leading Indicator
+
+ETH/BTC is the most reliable altseason leading indicator:
+
+- Breaking multi-month downtrend = altseason confirmation
+- New 90-day high = altseason acceleration
+- Divergence (ETH/BTC dropping while small alts pump) = unhealthy, likely reversal soon
+
+### Altseason End Signals
+
+| Signal                            | Severity | Detection                               |
+| --------------------------------- | -------- | --------------------------------------- |
+| Meme category 7d% > +50%          | High     | `coin/categories` — euphoria peak       |
+| BTC dom 7d increase > +2%         | High     | `coin/global_stats` — capital returning |
+| ETH/BTC breaking below 20d SMA    | Medium   | `fin_ta(sma)` on ETH/BTC                |
+| Funding rates > +0.10% on alts    | Medium   | `market/funding_rate` — crowded longs   |
+| Top 50 outperformance drops < 40% | Medium   | Altseason Index reversal                |
+
+## Data Notes
+
+- **BTC Dominance**: `coin/global_stats` provides a single current snapshot. There is NO historical dominance API. To track trend, the skill relies on comparing the current value against recent snapshots or computing BTC mcap / total mcap from `coin/market`.
+- **CoinGecko**: ~30 req/min rate limit. `coin/categories` updates daily. Use 7d% for rotation signals.
+- **ETH/BTC OHLCV**: Available via `fin_data_ohlcv(symbol="ETH/BTC", market="crypto")`. Sufficient for trend analysis.
+- **Category data**: CoinGecko categories may not perfectly map to investment themes. Cross-validate with TVL data from `defi/chains`.
+- **Altseason Index**: Self-calculated from `coin/market` Top 50 data. This is a simplified version of the Blockchain Center Altseason Index.
+
+## Response Guidelines
+
+### Number Formats
+
+- BTC dominance: 54.3% (1 decimal)
+- Altseason Index: 68% (integer)
+- ETH/BTC ratio: 0.0542 (4 decimals)
+- Category 7d%: +28.5% / -3.2% (always with +/- sign, 1 decimal)
+- Market cap tiers: $45.2B / $3.8B / $280M (use $B/$M)
+
+### Must Include
+
+- Data timestamp ("Data as of YYYY-MM-DD")
+- Current BTC dominance with directional context
+- Altseason Index score with interpretation
+- Rotation ladder current phase
+- At least one ⚠️ risk signal assessment
+
+### Display Format
+
+- Altseason assessment → structured sections: Dominance, Altseason Index, ETH/BTC, Category Top 5, Composite Score, Action
+- Category rotation → ranked table (category, 7d%, market cap, interpretation)
+- ETH/BTC analysis → trend direction + RSI + key levels + historical context
+- Always end with actionable recommendation tied to composite score

package/skills/crypto-btc-cycle/skill.md

@@ -0,0 +1,231 @@
+---
+name: fin-crypto-btc-cycle
+description: "BTC halving cycle analysis — cycle positioning (days since halving, historical comparison), four-phase detection (accumulation/markup/euphoria/decline), multi-signal validation (funding rate + stablecoin flow + regime). Use when: user asks about BTC cycle position, halving impact, bull/bear phase, or cycle-based timing. NOT for: general crypto market overview (use fin-crypto), funding rate arbitrage (use fin-crypto-funding-arb), DeFi yield farming (use fin-crypto-defi-yield), altseason timing (use fin-crypto, BTC Dominance Cycle)."
+metadata: { "openclaw": { "emoji": "🔄", "requires": { "extensions": ["findoo-datahub-plugin"] } } }
+---
+
+# BTC Halving Cycle Analysis
+
+BTC 减半周期定位与阶段判定。减半是加密市场最确定的供应冲击事件，4 年一轮，历史上每次减半后 12-18 个月出现价格高点。
+
+## When to Use
+
+- "BTC 现在处于什么周期" / "where are we in the BTC cycle"
+- "离减半还有多久" / "when is the next halving"
+- "该抄底吗" / "is it time to buy the dip"
+- "这轮牛市还能涨多久" / "how much longer will this bull run last"
+- "对比历次减半后的表现" / "compare post-halving performance"
+- "BTC 周期到顶了吗" / "has BTC topped this cycle"
+
+## When NOT to Use
+
+- 加密市场全景概览 (行情/DeFi/赛道) → use `/fin-crypto`
+- 资金费率套利策略 → use `/fin-crypto-funding-arb`
+- DeFi 收益优化 → use `/fin-crypto-defi-yield`
+- 山寨季择时 (BTC dom 轮动) → use `/fin-crypto` (BTC Dominance Cycle pattern)
+- A 股 / 美股 / 港股 → use `/fin-a-share` / `/fin-us-equity` / `/fin-hk-stock`
+- 宏观经济数据 → use `/fin-macro`
+
+## Tools & Parameters
+
+### fin_crypto — 市场数据
+
+| Parameter  | Type   | Required | Format                  | Default | Example         |
+| ---------- | ------ | -------- | ----------------------- | ------- | --------------- |
+| endpoint   | string | Yes      | see endpoint table      | —       | coin/historical |
+| symbol     | string | Depends  | coin ID or trading pair | —       | bitcoin         |
+| limit      | number | No       | 1-250                   | 100     | 20              |
+| start_date | string | No       | YYYY-MM-DD              | —       | 2020-01-01      |
+| end_date   | string | No       | YYYY-MM-DD              | —       | 2026-03-07      |
+
+#### Key Endpoints
+
+| endpoint              | Description            | Example                                                                                                    |
+| --------------------- | ---------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
+| `coin/historical`     | BTC historical prices  | `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/historical", symbol="bitcoin", start_date="2020-01-01", end_date="2026-03-07")` |
+| `coin/global_stats`   | Total mcap, BTC dom    | `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/global_stats")`                                                                 |
+| `coin/market`         | Top coins by mcap      | `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/market", limit=5)`                                                              |
+| `market/funding_rate` | Perpetual funding rate | `fin_crypto(endpoint="market/funding_rate", symbol="BTC/USDT:USDT")`                                       |
+| `defi/stablecoins`    | Stablecoin market data | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/stablecoins")`                                                                  |
+
+### fin_data_regime — 市场体制检测
+
+Returns: bull / bear / sideways / volatile / crisis
+
+### fin_ta — 技术指标
+
+Indicators: sma, ema, rsi, macd, bbands
+
+### fin_macro — 宏观叠加
+
+| endpoint      | Description        | Example                             |
+| ------------- | ------------------ | ----------------------------------- |
+| `treasury_us` | US Treasury yields | `fin_macro(endpoint="treasury_us")` |
+
+## BTC Halving History (Hardcoded Reference)
+
+| Halving  | Date       | Block     | Reward       | Pre-Halving Price | Cycle Peak        | Peak Multiplier | Days to Peak |
+| -------- | ---------- | --------- | ------------ | ----------------- | ----------------- | --------------- | ------------ |
+| #1       | 2012-11-28 | 210,000   | 50→25        | ~$12              | $1,163 (2013-12)  | ~97x            | ~365         |
+| #2       | 2016-07-09 | 420,000   | 25→12.5      | ~$650             | $19,783 (2017-12) | ~30x            | ~525         |
+| #3       | 2020-05-11 | 630,000   | 12.5→6.25    | ~$8,500           | $69,000 (2021-11) | ~8x             | ~550         |
+| #4       | 2024-04-20 | 840,000   | 6.25→3.125   | ~$64,000          | TBD               | TBD             | TBD          |
+| #5 (est) | ~2028-04   | 1,050,000 | 3.125→1.5625 | TBD               | TBD               | TBD             | TBD          |
+
+**Key observation**: Peak multiplier is diminishing (~97x → ~30x → ~8x), cycle duration slightly increasing.
+
+## Cycle Analysis Pattern
+
+### 1. Cycle Positioning (周期定位)
+
+```
+Step 1: 计算当前日期距最近减半 (2024-04-20) 的天数
+  days_since_halving = current_date - 2024-04-20
+  progress_pct = days_since_halving / (4 * 365) × 100%
+
+Step 2: fin_crypto(coin/historical, symbol="bitcoin", start_date=halving_date, end_date=today)
+  → 本轮减半后价格走势
+
+Step 3: 历史同期对比
+  2012 周期: 减半后 N 天 BTC 价格 vs 最终 peak
+  2016 周期: 减半后 N 天 BTC 价格 vs 最终 peak
+  2020 周期: 减半后 N 天 BTC 价格 vs 最终 peak
+  → 当前对标哪个周期的同期位置
+
+  ⚠️ Peak multiplier 递减趋势 — 不要简单外推历史涨幅
+  💡 2024 周期与 2020 周期的关键差异: ETF 资金流 + 机构参与度 + 宏观利率环境
+```
+
+### 2. Four-Phase Detection (四阶段判定)
+
+```
+Phase 1 — 积累期 (Accumulation): 减半前 6M ~ 减半后 6M
+  特征: 价格横盘或缓慢上涨, funding rate 低且稳定, 稳定币缓慢流入
+  regime: sideways 或 early bull
+
+Phase 2 — 上升期 (Markup): 减半后 6M ~ 12M
+  特征: 价格趋势性上涨, funding rate 温和正值 (+0.03~0.08%), 稳定币加速流入
+  regime: bull
+
+Phase 3 — 狂热期 (Euphoria): 减半后 12M ~ 18M
+  特征: 价格加速上涨, funding rate 极端正值 (>0.10%), 稳定币增量创新高
+  regime: bull (late stage)
+  ⚠️ 这是历史上最危险的阶段 — 收益最大但距顶部也最近
+
+Phase 4 — 衰退期 (Decline): 减半后 18M ~ 48M
+  特征: 价格从峰值持续下跌 30-80%, funding rate 持续为负, 稳定币流出
+  regime: bear 或 crisis
+
+阶段判定逻辑:
+  days = days_since_halving
+  ├─ days < 180 → Phase 1 (积累期)
+  ├─ 180 ≤ days < 365 → Phase 2 (上升期) — 确认: regime = bull
+  ├─ 365 ≤ days < 550 → Phase 3 (狂热期) — 确认: funding >0.08% + 稳定币 4w >$2B
+  └─ days ≥ 550 → Phase 4 (衰退期) — 确认: 价格距 ATH 跌 >30%
+
+  ⚠️ 天数仅为初始分类, 必须用多维信号交叉验证
+  💡 如果天数指向 Phase 3 但 regime = sideways → 周期可能延长 (结构性差异)
+```
+
+### 3. Multi-Signal Validation (多维验证)
+
+```
+Signal 1 — Price Momentum:
+  fin_crypto(coin/historical) → 30d/90d/180d 涨幅
+  fin_ta(sma, symbol="BTC/USDT", period=200) → 价格 vs 200 SMA
+  ├─ 价格 > 200SMA + 30d 涨幅 >20% → bullish momentum
+  ├─ 价格 > 200SMA + 30d 涨幅 <5% → sideways above trend
+  └─ 价格 < 200SMA → bearish structure
+
+Signal 2 — Funding Rate Sentiment:
+  fin_crypto(market/funding_rate, symbol="BTC/USDT:USDT")
+  ├─ > +0.10% → 极端多头拥挤 → 清算瀑布风险
+  ├─ +0.03~+0.10% → 健康牛市 → 趋势延续
+  ├─ -0.01~+0.03% → 中性 → 无方向信号
+  ├─ -0.05~-0.01% → 偏空 → 轧空可能
+  └─ < -0.05% → 极端恐慌 → 反弹信号
+
+Signal 3 — Stablecoin Flow (资金代理):
+  fin_crypto(defi/stablecoins) → USDT + USDC 总量 4 周变化
+  ├─ 4w 增量 > $2B → 强资金流入 (领先 2-4 周)
+  ├─ 4w 增量 $0 ~ $2B → 温和流入
+  ├─ 4w 增量 < -$1B → 资金流出防御
+
+Signal 4 — Market Regime:
+  fin_data_regime(symbol="BTC/USDT", market="crypto")
+  → bull / bear / sideways / volatile / crisis
+
+Signal 5 — BTC Dominance:
+  fin_crypto(coin/global_stats) → btc_dominance
+  ├─ dom > 60% → BTC season (风险偏好低, 资金集中)
+  ├─ 50-60% → 均衡
+  └─ dom < 50% → 山寨季 (风险偏好高, 周期后段)
+
+Cross-Validation Matrix:
+  ├─ Phase + Price + Funding + Stablecoin 四维共振 → 高置信度
+  ├─ 三维共振 → 中等置信度
+  ├─ 二维或信号矛盾 → 低置信度, 建议等待
+  └─ 多个信号指向 Phase 转换 → 重要转折点
+
+  💡 与 fin_macro(treasury_us) 叠加: 实际利率下行 + 减半后 12M = 历史最佳组合
+  ⚠️ 宏观逆风 (10Y > 5% + DXY 强势) 可能延迟/压制周期涨幅
+```
+
+### 4. Cycle Exit Signal Checklist (退出信号清单)
+
+```
+Top Signal Detection (判断周期见顶):
+
+1. Funding Rate 极端: > +0.15%/8h 持续 3+ 天
+2. 稳定币流出: 4 周增量转负 (资金撤退)
+3. BTC Dom 快速下降: 7d 变化 > -2% (山寨末期疯狂)
+4. Regime 转 volatile/crisis
+5. 价格距 200SMA 偏离 > +100% (极端泡沫)
+6. 减半后天数 > 500 天 (历史顶部区间)
+
+评分: 每个信号 1 分, 总分 0-6
+  ├─ 0-1 → 周期中段, 持有
+  ├─ 2-3 → 周期后段, 开始减仓
+  ├─ 4-5 → 高危区域, 大幅减仓
+  └─ 6 → 极端信号, 建议只保留核心仓位
+
+  ⚠️ 历史上没有一次见顶时全部 6 个信号同时亮起 — 通常 4 个就足够警惕
+  💡 "This time is different" 永远是最危险的想法
+```
+
+## Data Notes
+
+- **CoinGecko**: 免费 API ~30 req/min 速率限制; `coin/historical` 需传 `start_date`/`end_date`
+- **减半日期**: 硬编码 (2012.11.28 / 2016.07.09 / 2020.05.11 / 2024.04.20)，误差 <1 天
+- **链上指标**: MVRV / NUPL / 交易所余额 / Hash Ribbon 等链上估值指标 DataHub 不覆盖，需 Glassnode/CryptoQuant; 本 skill 使用 funding rate + stablecoin + regime 作为代理信号
+- **DefiLlama**: 无认证，稳定币数据约 10 分钟刷新
+- **BTC Dominance**: `coin/global_stats` 仅返回当前快照，无历史时序; 趋势判断需定期记录
+- **历史周期数据**: 基于 CoinGecko 历史价格 + 硬编码减半日期回溯计算
+
+## Response Guidelines
+
+### 数字格式
+
+- BTC 价格: $67,432 (到个位, 千位逗号)
+- 天数: "距减半已过 701 天" / "距下次减半约 730 天"
+- 涨幅: +320% / -65% (始终带 +/- 符号)
+- 倍数: 8.1x (1 位小数)
+- Funding rate: +0.08%/8h (明确标注 per 8h)
+- 稳定币: $168B / 4 周增量 +$3.2B
+- Dominance: 52.3%
+
+### 必须包含
+
+- 当前距减半天数 + 周期阶段判定
+- 历史同期对比 (至少 2012/2016/2020 三个周期)
+- Peak multiplier 递减趋势提醒 (不要让用户盲目外推)
+- 多维信号验证结果 (不能只看天数)
+- 退出信号清单当前亮灯数
+
+### 展示方式
+
+- 周期定位 → 进度条式描述 ("减半后第 23/48 个月, 进度 48%")
+- 历史对比 → 表格 (columns: 周期/减半后N天价格/涨幅/最终峰值/峰值倍数)
+- 多维信号 → 逐一列出 + 方向 + 综合结论
+- 退出信号 → checklist 格式 (亮/灭 + 当前值)
+- 始终给出 "当前最可能的阶段" + "置信度" + "需要关注的转折信号"

package/skills/crypto-defi-yield/skill.md

@@ -0,0 +1,181 @@
+---
+name: fin-crypto-defi-yield
+description: "DeFi yield analysis — yield farming opportunities, protocol safety scoring, TVL trend verification, risk-adjusted return comparison across chains. Use when: user asks about DeFi yields, staking APY, lending rates, protocol safety, yield farming risks, or DeFi vs TradFi returns. NOT for: CEX funding rate arb (use fin-crypto-funding-arb), spot crypto prices (use fin-crypto), macro rates (use fin-macro)."
+metadata: { "openclaw": { "emoji": "🌾", "requires": { "extensions": ["findoo-datahub-plugin"] } } }
+---
+
+# DeFi Yield Analysis
+
+DeFi 收益评估与风险分层 — 跨链 yield 对比、协议安全评分、收益可持续性检测。通过 `fin_crypto` 访问 DefiLlama 全量数据。
+
+> **核心理念:** APY 越高不等于越好。DeFi yield = 真实收入 yield + 代币补贴 yield + 风险溢价。本 skill 帮助拆解收益来源，区分"蓝筹固收"和"庞氏高息"。
+
+## When to Use
+
+- "USDC 哪里利息最高" / "best USDC yield"
+- "Aave 安全吗" / "is Aave safe"
+- "这个 200% APY 靠谱吗" / "is this 200% APY sustainable"
+- "DeFi 理财推荐" / "DeFi yield recommendations"
+- "Arbitrum 上最好的收益" / "best yields on Arbitrum"
+- "DeFi 和银行存款比哪个好" / "DeFi vs bank deposit"
+- "哪个协议 TVL 最高" / "top DeFi protocols by TVL"
+- "Pendle 收益怎么样" / "Pendle yield analysis"
+
+## When NOT to Use
+
+- CEX 资金费率套利 / funding rate → use `/fin-crypto-funding-arb`
+- 现货价格 / 代币信息 / 市值排名 → use `/fin-crypto`
+- 宏观利率 / GDP / CPI → use `/fin-macro`
+- 期货期权 / 传统衍生品 → use `/fin-derivatives`
+- A 股 / 港股 / 美股 → use `/fin-equity`
+
+## Tools & Parameters
+
+### fin_crypto — DeFi Data (DefiLlama)
+
+| Parameter | Type   | Required | Format              | Default | Example     |
+| --------- | ------ | -------- | ------------------- | ------- | ----------- |
+| endpoint  | string | Yes      | see endpoints below | —       | defi/yields |
+| symbol    | string | Depends  | protocol slug       | —       | aave        |
+| limit     | number | No       | 1-250               | 100     | 50          |
+
+#### Endpoints
+
+| endpoint            | Description                 | Example                                                   |
+| ------------------- | --------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------- |
+| `defi/yields`       | Yield farming opportunities | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/yields")`                      |
+| `defi/protocols`    | Protocol TVL ranking        | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/protocols", limit=50)`         |
+| `defi/protocol_tvl` | Single protocol TVL history | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/protocol_tvl", symbol="aave")` |
+| `defi/fees`         | Protocol fees / revenue     | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/fees")`                        |
+| `defi/chains`       | Blockchain TVL comparison   | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/chains")`                      |
+| `defi/stablecoins`  | Stablecoin market data      | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/stablecoins")`                 |
+| `defi/dex_volumes`  | DEX trading volumes         | `fin_crypto(endpoint="defi/dex_volumes")`                 |
+| `coin/info`         | Token detail (governance)   | `fin_crypto(endpoint="coin/info", symbol="aave")`         |
+
+## DeFi Yield Analysis Pattern
+
+1. **Yield Scan** `fin_crypto(defi/yields)` — 获取全市场 yield farming 机会
+   - 按用户指定资产(USDC/ETH/BTC)或链(Ethereum/Arbitrum)过滤
+   - ⚠️ 如果 APY >100% 且项目上线 <3 个月 → 高风险警告：可能是代币补贴驱动的短期高息
+   - 💡 按 TVL 加权排序比纯 APY 排序更有参考价值
+
+2. **Protocol Safety Scoring** `fin_crypto(defi/protocol_tvl, symbol="X")` + `fin_crypto(defi/fees)` — 协议安全评估
+   - **TVL 趋势**: protocol_tvl 显示历史 TVL，稳定增长 = 健康；骤降 >20% = 预警
+   - **收入真实性**: fees/TVL ratio > 0.1% = 有真实收入支撑；ratio ~0 = 纯代币补贴
+   - ⚠️ 如果 TVL 大但 fees 接近 0 → "TVL 可能是激励驱动的虚胖，一旦激励停止将快速流失"
+   - ⚠️ 如果 TVL 单周跌幅 >10% → "资金撤离信号，即使 APY 仍高也应规避"
+   - 💡 交叉验证：TVL 增长 + fees 增长 = 真实需求增长；TVL 增长 + fees 平 = 激励驱动
+
+3. **Risk Tier Classification** — 综合评分
+
+   ```
+   Tier 1 (Blue-chip): TVL >$1B, 运行 >2 年, fees/TVL >0.1%, 无安全事故
+     → Aave, Compound, MakerDAO, Lido, Curve
+   Tier 2 (Established): TVL $100M-$1B, 运行 >1 年, 有审计
+     → Morpho, Pendle, Yearn, Convex
+   Tier 3 (Emerging): TVL $10M-$100M, 运行 <1 年
+     → 需逐一评估，APY >50% 需额外审慎
+   Tier 4 (High-risk): TVL <$10M 或运行 <3 个月
+     → ⚠️ 极高风险，不建议大额配置
+   ```
+
+4. **Cross-Chain Yield Comparison** `fin_crypto(defi/chains)` — 链级别收益对比
+   - 同一协议在不同链上的 yield 差异(如 Aave ETH mainnet vs Arbitrum vs Optimism)
+   - ⚠️ L2 上 yield 通常更高(Gas 低 → 小额也划算)，但流动性可能更薄
+   - 💡 交叉验证链健康度：chain TVL 增长 + bridge 净流入 = 生态向好 = yield 可持续
+
+5. **Sustainability Detection** — 收益可持续性判断
+   - ⚠️ APY >100% + TVL 下降 = **死亡螺旋预警**（代币价格跌 → APY 虚高 → 资金撤离 → 更跌）
+   - ⚠️ APY 大幅波动(7d 方差 >50%) = 不稳定收益，不适合长期配置
+   - 💡 APY 5-20% + TVL 上升 + fees 增长 = 蓝筹DeFi最佳信号
+   - 💡 对比 US Treasury yield (fin_macro)：DeFi yield < Treasury = crypto risk premium 不足
+
+6. **DeFi vs TradFi Comparison** — 风险调整后收益对比
+   - 💡 切换 `/fin-macro` 查 US Treasury yield 作为无风险基准
+   - Spread = DeFi yield - Treasury yield = crypto risk premium
+   - ⚠️ 如果 spread < 2% → "承担智能合约风险但几乎没有超额收益，不如直接买国债"
+
+## Protocol Safety Quick-Reference
+
+### Blue-Chip Protocol Indicators
+
+| Metric   | Healthy         | Warning                   | Danger                   |
+| -------- | --------------- | ------------------------- | ------------------------ |
+| TVL      | >$1B, stable    | $100M-$1B, volatile       | <$100M or declining fast |
+| Runtime  | >2 years        | 1-2 years                 | <6 months                |
+| Fees/TVL | >0.1%           | 0.01-0.1%                 | ~0% (pure incentive)     |
+| Security | No incidents    | Minor incidents, resolved | Major hack history       |
+| Audit    | Multiple audits | Single audit              | No audit                 |
+
+### Yield Sustainability Signals
+
+| Signal                                | Implication                                 | Confidence |
+| ------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------- | ---------- |
+| APY 5-20% + TVL rising + fees growing | Sustainable blue-chip                       | High       |
+| APY 20-50% + TVL stable + some fees   | Moderate risk, possibly sustainable         | Medium     |
+| APY 50-100% + TVL flat + low fees     | Incentive-driven, monitor closely           | Low        |
+| APY >100% + TVL declining             | Death spiral risk                           | Very Low   |
+| APY spikes suddenly >3x               | Likely short-term promotion or manipulation | Very Low   |
+
+### Common DeFi Risk Categories
+
+| Risk Type             | Description               | Mitigation                          |
+| --------------------- | ------------------------- | ----------------------------------- |
+| Smart Contract        | Code bugs, exploits       | Stick to Tier 1-2 protocols         |
+| Impermanent Loss (IL) | LP token value divergence | Prefer stablecoin pools             |
+| Oracle Manipulation   | Price feed attacks        | Use protocols with Chainlink        |
+| Governance Attack     | Malicious proposals       | Check governance token distribution |
+| Depeg Risk            | Stablecoin loses peg      | Diversify across USDC/USDT/DAI      |
+
+## Stablecoin Yield Matrix
+
+> Most common DeFi entry: deposit stablecoins for "fixed income" style returns.
+
+| Protocol        | Chain      | Typical APY | Tier | Notes                             |
+| --------------- | ---------- | ----------- | ---- | --------------------------------- |
+| Aave V3         | ETH/ARB/OP | 3-8%        | 1    | Gold standard, variable rate      |
+| Compound V3     | ETH/ARB    | 3-6%        | 1    | Simple, battle-tested             |
+| MakerDAO (sDAI) | ETH        | 4-5%        | 1    | Backed by RWA + T-bills           |
+| Morpho          | ETH        | 4-10%       | 2    | Optimized rates, newer            |
+| Pendle (PT)     | ETH/ARB    | 5-15%       | 2    | Fixed-term, maturity date matters |
+
+> Note: Rates are illustrative ranges based on typical market conditions; always verify current rates via `defi/yields`.
+
+## Data Notes
+
+- **DefiLlama**: No auth required, data refreshes ~10 minutes; most comprehensive DeFi data aggregator
+- **Yield Data**: `defi/yields` returns current snapshot; no historical APY time series (track manually)
+- **TVL Accuracy**: TVL counts may differ between protocols' own dashboards and DefiLlama due to methodology
+- **Fees Data**: `defi/fees` covers major protocols; smaller protocols may have incomplete data
+- **IL Calculation**: No built-in impermanent loss calculator; use formula `IL = 2*sqrt(r)/(1+r) - 1` where r = price ratio change
+- **Audit Status**: Not available via API; rely on protocol runtime + TVL as proxy for safety
+- **Gas Costs**: Not included in yield calculation; L2 gas negligible (<$0.05), ETH mainnet can be $5-50 per tx
+
+## Response Guidelines
+
+### Number Formatting
+
+- APY/APR: 1 decimal place (5.2% APY)
+- TVL: $B/$M notation ($12.3B, $450M)
+- Fee revenue: $M/day or $M/year ($2.1M/day)
+- Protocol age: years + months (2y 4m)
+- Gas cost: $ estimate per transaction ($0.02 on Arbitrum, $12 on ETH mainnet)
+- Risk score: use Tier 1-4 classification
+
+### Must Include
+
+- Risk tier for every protocol mentioned (Tier 1/2/3/4)
+- Net yield estimate (APY - estimated gas cost for typical deposit size)
+- TVL trend direction (growing/stable/declining)
+- Fees/TVL ratio when evaluating sustainability
+- Comparison with at least one benchmark (US Treasury or Aave baseline)
+- Data timestamp ("yield data as of 2026-03-07")
+- Disclaimer: "DeFi yields are variable and carry smart contract risk; past returns do not guarantee future performance"
+
+### Display Format
+
+- Single protocol deep-dive → structured narrative with safety scorecard
+- Multi-protocol yield comparison → table (columns: protocol / chain / APY / TVL / Tier / fees/TVL)
+- Risk assessment → bullet points with Tier classification
+- Yield recommendation → ranked by risk-adjusted return, not raw APY
+- Always lead with risk tier before mentioning APY