@monoes/monomindcli 2.15.3 → 2.15.4

package/org-skills/churn-prevention/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: churn-prevention
+description: "When the user wants to reduce churn, build cancellation flows, set up save offers, recover failed payments, or implement retention strategies."
+tags: ["marketing","product","support"]
+tools: []
+license: MIT
+source: https://github.com/coreyhaines31/marketingskills
+source_path: "skills/churn-prevention"
+source_commit: 5b2c0007766c6a1cf1d53fd8fc73e979e0821022
+---
+# Churn Prevention
+
+You are an expert in SaaS retention and churn prevention. Your goal is to help reduce both voluntary churn (customers choosing to cancel) and involuntary churn (failed payments) through well-designed cancel flows, dynamic save offers, proactive retention, and dunning strategies.
+
+## Before Starting
+
+**Check for product marketing context first:**
+If `.agents/product-marketing.md` exists (or `.claude/product-marketing.md`, or the legacy `product-marketing-context.md` filename, in older setups), read it before asking questions. Use that context and only ask for information not already covered or specific to this task.
+
+Gather this context (ask if not provided):
+
+### 1. Current Churn Situation
+- What's your monthly churn rate? (Voluntary vs. involuntary if known)
+- How many active subscribers?
+- What's the average MRR per customer?
+- Do you have a cancel flow today, or does cancel happen instantly?
+
+### 2. Billing & Platform
+- What billing provider? (Stripe, Chargebee, Paddle, Recurly, Braintree)
+- Monthly, annual, or both billing intervals?
+- Do you support plan pausing or downgrades?
+- Any existing retention tooling? (Churnkey, ProsperStack, Raaft)
+
+### 3. Product & Usage Data
+- Do you track feature usage per user?
+- Can you identify engagement drop-offs?
+- Do you have cancellation reason data from past churns?
+- What's your activation metric? (What do retained users do that churned users don't?)
+
+### 4. Constraints
+- B2B or B2C? (Affects flow design)
+- Self-serve cancellation required? (Some regulations mandate easy cancel)
+- Brand tone for offboarding? (Empathetic, direct, playful)
+
+---
+
+## How This Skill Works
+
+Churn has two types requiring different strategies:
+
+| Type | Cause | Solution |
+|------|-------|----------|
+| **Voluntary** | Customer chooses to cancel | Cancel flows, save offers, exit surveys |
+| **Involuntary** | Payment fails | Dunning emails, smart retries, card updaters |
+
+Voluntary churn is typically 50-70% of total churn. Involuntary churn is 30-50% but is often easier to fix.
+
+This skill supports three modes:
+
+1. **Build a cancel flow** — Design from scratch with survey, save offers, and confirmation
+2. **Optimize an existing flow** — Analyze cancel data and improve save rates
+3. **Set up dunning** — Failed payment recovery with retries and email sequences
+
+---
+
+## Cancel Flow Design
+
+### The Cancel Flow Structure
+
+Every cancel flow follows this sequence:
+
+```
+Trigger → Survey → Dynamic Offer → Confirmation → Post-Cancel
+```
+
+**Step 1: Trigger**
+Customer clicks "Cancel subscription" in account settings.
+
+**Step 2: Exit Survey**
+Ask why they're cancelling. This determines which save offer to show.
+
+**Step 3: Dynamic Save Offer**
+Present a targeted offer based on their reason (discount, pause, downgrade, etc.)
+
+**Step 4: Confirmation**
+If they still want to cancel, confirm clearly with end-of-billing-period messaging.
+
+**Step 5: Post-Cancel**
+Set expectations, offer easy reactivation path, trigger win-back sequence.
+
+### Exit Survey Design
+
+The exit survey is the foundation. Good reason categories:
+
+| Reason | What It Tells You |
+|--------|-------------------|
+| Too expensive | Price sensitivity, may respond to discount or downgrade |
+| Not using it enough | Low engagement, may respond to pause or onboarding help |
+| Missing a feature | Product gap, show roadmap or workaround |
+| Switching to competitor | Competitive pressure, understand what they offer |
+| Technical issues / bugs | Product quality, escalate to support |
+| Temporary / seasonal need | Usage pattern, offer pause |
+| Business closed / changed | Unavoidable, learn and let go gracefully |
+| Other | Catch-all, include free text field |
+
+**Survey best practices:**
+- 1 question, single-select with optional free text
+- 5-8 reason options max (avoid decision fatigue)
+- Put most common reasons first (review data quarterly)
+- Don't make it feel like a guilt trip
+- "Help us improve" framing works better than "Why are you leaving?"
+
+### Dynamic Save Offers
+
+The key insight: **match the offer to the reason.** A discount won't save someone who isn't using the product. A feature roadmap won't save someone who can't afford it.
+
+**Offer-to-reason mapping:**
+
+| Cancel Reason | Primary Offer | Fallback Offer |
+|---------------|---------------|----------------|
+| Too expensive | Discount (20-30% for 2-3 months) | Downgrade to lower plan |
+| Not using it enough | Pause (1-3 months) | Free onboarding session |
+| Missing feature | Roadmap preview + timeline | Workaround guide |
+| Switching to competitor | Competitive comparison + discount | Feedback session |
+| Technical issues | Escalate to support immediately | Credit + priority fix |
+| Temporary / seasonal | Pause subscription | Downgrade temporarily |
+| Business closed | Skip offer (respect the situation) | — |
+
+### Save Offer Types
+
+**Discount**
+- 20-30% off for 2-3 months is the sweet spot
+- Avoid 50%+ discounts (trains customers to cancel for deals)
+- Time-limit the offer ("This offer expires when you leave this page")
+- Show the dollar amount saved, not just the percentage
+
+**Pause subscription**
+- 1-3 month pause maximum (longer pauses rarely reactivate)
+- 60-80% of pausers eventually return to active
+- Auto-reactivation with advance notice email
+- Keep their data and settings intact
+
+**Plan downgrade**
+- Offer a lower tier instead of full cancellation
+- Show what they keep vs. what they lose
+- Position as "right-size your plan" not "downgrade"
+- Easy path back up when ready
+
+**Feature unlock / extension**
+- Unlock a premium feature they haven't tried
+- Extend trial of a higher tier
+- Works best for "not getting enough value" reasons
+
+**Personal outreach**
+- For high-value accounts (top 10-20% by MRR)
+- Route to customer success for a call
+- Personal email from founder for smaller companies
+
+### Cancel Flow UI Patterns
+
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
+│  We're sorry to see you go          │
+│                                     │
+│  What's the main reason you're      │
+│  cancelling?                        │
+│                                     │
+│  ○ Too expensive                    │
+│  ○ Not using it enough              │
+│  ○ Missing a feature I need         │
+│  ○ Switching to another tool        │
+│  ○ Technical issues                 │
+│  ○ Temporary / don't need right now │
+│  ○ Other: [____________]            │
+│                                     │
+│  [Continue]                         │
+│  [Never mind, keep my subscription] │
+└─────────────────────────────────────┘
+         ↓ (selects "Too expensive")
+┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
+│  What if we could help?             │
+│                                     │
+│  We'd love to keep you. Here's a    │
+│  special offer:                     │
+│                                     │
+│  ┌───────────────────────────────┐  │
+│  │  25% off for the next 3 months│  │
+│  │  Save $XX/month               │  │
+│  │                               │  │
+│  │  [Accept Offer]               │  │
+│  └───────────────────────────────┘  │
+│                                     │
+│  Or switch to [Basic Plan] at       │
+│  $X/month →                         │
+│                                     │
+│  [No thanks, continue cancelling]   │
+└─────────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+**UI principles:**
+- Keep the "continue cancelling" option visible (no dark patterns)
+- One primary offer + one fallback, not a wall of options
+- Show specific dollar savings, not abstract percentages
+- Use the customer's name and account data when possible
+- Mobile-friendly (many cancellations happen on mobile)
+
+For detailed cancel flow patterns by industry and billing provider, see [references/cancel-flow-patterns.md](references/cancel-flow-patterns.md).
+
+---
+
+## Churn Prediction & Proactive Retention
+
+The best save happens before the customer ever clicks "Cancel."
+
+### Risk Signals
+
+Track these leading indicators of churn:
+
+| Signal | Risk Level | Timeframe |
+|--------|-----------|-----------|
+| Login frequency drops 50%+ | High | 2-4 weeks before cancel |
+| Key feature usage stops | High | 1-3 weeks before cancel |
+| Support tickets spike then stop | High | 1-2 weeks before cancel |
+| Email open rates decline | Medium | 2-6 weeks before cancel |
+| Billing page visits increase | High | Days before cancel |
+| Team seats removed | High | 1-2 weeks before cancel |
+| Data export initiated | Critical | Days before cancel |
+| NPS score drops below 6 | Medium | 1-3 months before cancel |
+
+### Health Score Model
+
+Build a simple health score (0-100) from weighted signals:
+
+```
+Health Score = (
+  Login frequency score × 0.30 +
+  Feature usage score   × 0.25 +
+  Support sentiment     × 0.15 +
+  Billing health        × 0.15 +
+  Engagement score      × 0.15
+)
+```
+
+| Score | Status | Action |
+|-------|--------|--------|
+| 80-100 | Healthy | Upsell opportunities |
+| 60-79 | Needs attention | Proactive check-in |
+| 40-59 | At risk | Intervention campaign |
+| 0-39 | Critical | Personal outreach |
+
+### Proactive Interventions
+
+**Before they think about cancelling:**
+
+| Trigger | Intervention |
+|---------|-------------|
+| Usage drop >50% for 2 weeks | "We noticed you haven't used [feature]. Need help?" email |
+| Approaching plan limit | Upgrade nudge (not a wall — paywalls handles this) |
+| No login for 14 days | Re-engagement email with recent product updates |
+| NPS detractor (0-6) | Personal follow-up within 24 hours |
+| Support ticket unresolved >48h | Escalation + proactive status update |
+| Annual renewal in 30 days | Value recap email + renewal confirmation |
+
+---
+
+## Involuntary Churn: Payment Recovery
+
+Failed payments cause 30-50% of all churn but are the most recoverable.
+
+### The Dunning Stack
+
+```
+Pre-dunning → Smart retry → Dunning emails → Grace period → Hard cancel
+```
+
+### Pre-Dunning (Prevent Failures)
+
+- **Card expiry alerts**: Email 30, 15, and 7 days before card expires
+- **Backup payment method**: Prompt for a second payment method at signup
+- **Card updater services**: Visa/Mastercard auto-update programs (reduces hard declines 30-50%)
+- **Pre-billing notification**: Email 3-5 days before charge for annual plans
+
+### Smart Retry Logic
+
+Not all failures are the same. Retry strategy by decline type:
+
+| Decline Type | Examples | Retry Strategy |
+|-------------|----------|----------------|
+| Soft decline (temporary) | Insufficient funds, processor timeout | Retry 3-5 times over 7-10 days |
+| Hard decline (permanent) | Card stolen, account closed | Don't retry — ask for new card |
+| Authentication required | 3D Secure, SCA | Send customer to update payment |
+
+**Retry timing best practices:**
+- Retry 1: 24 hours after failure
+- Retry 2: 3 days after failure
+- Retry 3: 5 days after failure
+- Retry 4: 7 days after failure (with dunning email escalation)
+- After 4 retries: Hard cancel with reactivation path
+
+**Smart retry tip:** Retry on the day of the month the payment originally succeeded (if Day 1 worked before, retry on Day 1). Stripe Smart Retries handles this automatically.
+
+### Dunning Email Sequence
+
+| Email | Timing | Tone | Content |
+|-------|--------|------|---------|
+| 1 | Day 0 (failure) | Friendly alert | "Your payment didn't go through. Update your card." |
+| 2 | Day 3 | Helpful reminder | "Quick reminder — update your payment to keep access." |
+| 3 | Day 7 | Urgency | "Your account will be paused in 3 days. Update now." |
+| 4 | Day 10 | Final warning | "Last chance to keep your account active." |
+
+**Dunning email best practices:**
+- Direct link to payment update page (no login required if possible)
+- Show what they'll lose (their data, their team's access)
+- Don't blame ("your payment failed" not "you failed to pay")
+- Include support contact for help
+- Plain text performs better than designed emails for dunning
+
+### Recovery Benchmarks
+
+| Metric | Poor | Average | Good |
+|--------|------|---------|------|
+| Soft decline recovery | <40% | 50-60% | 70%+ |
+| Hard decline recovery | <10% | 20-30% | 40%+ |
+| Overall payment recovery | <30% | 40-50% | 60%+ |
+| Pre-dunning prevention | None | 10-15% | 20-30% |
+
+For the complete dunning playbook with provider-specific setup, see [references/dunning-playbook.md](references/dunning-playbook.md).
+
+---
+
+## Metrics & Measurement
+
+### Key Churn Metrics
+
+| Metric | Formula | Target |
+|--------|---------|--------|
+| Monthly churn rate | Churned customers / Start-of-month customers | <5% B2C, <2% B2B |
+| Revenue churn (net) | (Lost MRR - Expansion MRR) / Start MRR | Negative (net expansion) |
+| Cancel flow save rate | Saved / Total cancel sessions | 25-35% |
+| Offer acceptance rate | Accepted offers / Shown offers | 15-25% |
+| Pause reactivation rate | Reactivated / Total paused | 60-80% |
+| Dunning recovery rate | Recovered / Total failed payments | 50-60% |
+| Time to cancel | Days from first churn signal to cancel | Track trend |
+
+### Cohort Analysis
+
+Segment churn by:
+- **Acquisition channel** — Which channels bring stickier customers?
+- **Plan type** — Which plans churn most?
+- **Tenure** — When do most cancellations happen? (30, 60, 90 days?)
+- **Cancel reason** — Which reasons are growing?
+- **Save offer type** — Which offers work best for which segments?
+
+### Cancel Flow A/B Tests
+
+Test one variable at a time:
+
+| Test | Hypothesis | Metric |
+|------|-----------|--------|
+| Discount % (20% vs 30%) | Higher discount saves more | Save rate, LTV impact |
+| Pause duration (1 vs 3 months) | Longer pause increases return rate | Reactivation rate |
+| Survey placement (before vs after offer) | Survey-first personalizes offers | Save rate |
+| Offer presentation (modal vs full page) | Full page gets more attention | Save rate |
+| Copy tone (empathetic vs direct) | Empathetic reduces friction | Save rate |
+
+**How to run cancel flow experiments:** Use the **ab-testing** skill to design statistically rigorous tests. PostHog is a good fit for cancel flow experiments — its feature flags can split users into different flows server-side, and its funnel analytics track each step of the cancel flow (survey → offer → accept/decline → confirm). See the [PostHog integration guide](../../tools/integrations/posthog.md) for setup.
+
+---
+
+## Common Mistakes
+
+- **No cancel flow at all** — Instant cancel leaves money on the table. Even a simple survey + one offer saves 10-15%
+- **Making cancellation hard to find** — Hidden cancel buttons breed resentment and bad reviews. Many jurisdictions require easy cancellation (FTC Click-to-Cancel rule)
+- **Same offer for every reason** — A blanket discount doesn't address "missing feature" or "not using it"
+- **Discounts too deep** — 50%+ discounts train customers to cancel-and-return for deals
+- **Ignoring involuntary churn** — Often 30-50% of total churn and the easiest to fix
+- **No dunning emails** — Letting payment failures silently cancel accounts
+- **Guilt-trip copy** — "Are you sure you want to abandon us?" damages brand trust
+- **Not tracking save offer LTV** — A "saved" customer who churns 30 days later wasn't really saved
+- **Pausing too long** — Pauses beyond 3 months rarely reactivate. Set limits.
+- **No post-cancel path** — Make reactivation easy and trigger win-back emails, because some churned users will want to come back
+
+---
+
+## Tool Integrations
+
+For implementation, see the [tools registry](../../tools/REGISTRY.md).
+
+### Retention Platforms
+
+| Tool | Best For | Key Feature |
+|------|----------|-------------|
+| **Churnkey** | Full cancel flow + dunning | AI-powered adaptive offers, 34% avg save rate |
+| **ProsperStack** | Cancel flows with analytics | Advanced rules engine, Stripe/Chargebee integration |
+| **Raaft** | Simple cancel flow builder | Easy setup, good for early-stage |
+| **Chargebee Retention** | Chargebee customers | Native integration, was Brightback |
+
+### Billing Providers (Dunning)
+
+| Provider | Smart Retries | Dunning Emails | Card Updater |
+|----------|:------------:|:--------------:|:------------:|
+| **Stripe** | Built-in (Smart Retries) | Built-in | Automatic |
+| **Chargebee** | Built-in | Built-in | Via gateway |
+| **Paddle** | Built-in | Built-in | Managed |
+| **Recurly** | Built-in | Built-in | Built-in |
+| **Braintree** | Manual config | Manual | Via gateway |
+
+### Related CLI Tools
+
+| Tool | Use For |
+|------|---------|
+| `stripe` | Subscription management, dunning config, payment retries |
+| `customer-io` | Dunning email sequences, retention campaigns |
+| `posthog` | Cancel flow A/B tests via feature flags, funnel analytics |
+| `mixpanel` / `ga4` | Usage tracking, churn signal analysis |
+| `segment` | Event routing for health scoring |
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+
+- **emails**: For win-back email sequences after cancellation
+- **paywalls**: For in-app upgrade moments and trial expiration
+- **pricing**: For plan structure and annual discount strategy
+- **onboarding**: For activation to prevent early churn
+- **analytics**: For setting up churn signal events
+- **ab-testing**: For testing cancel flow variations with statistical rigor