gkt-node 3.3.0

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  1. package/README.md +89 -0
  2. package/assets/.agent/brain/agent_index.json +208 -0
  3. package/assets/.agent/brain/project_context.json +31 -0
  4. package/assets/.agent/skills/ab-test-setup/SKILL.md +232 -0
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@@ -0,0 +1,231 @@
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+ ---
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+ name: mailchimp-automation
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+ description: "Automate Mailchimp email marketing including campaigns, audiences, subscribers, segments, and analytics via Rube MCP (Composio). Always search tools first for current schemas."
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+ requires:
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+ mcp: [rube]
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+ ---
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+
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+ # Mailchimp Automation via Rube MCP
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+
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+ Automate Mailchimp email marketing workflows including campaign creation and sending, audience/list management, subscriber operations, segmentation, and performance analytics through Composio's Mailchimp toolkit.
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+
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+ ## Prerequisites
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+
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+ - Rube MCP must be connected (RUBE_SEARCH_TOOLS available)
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+ - Active Mailchimp connection via `RUBE_MANAGE_CONNECTIONS` with toolkit `mailchimp`
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+ - Always call `RUBE_SEARCH_TOOLS` first to get current tool schemas
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+
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+ ## Setup
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+
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+ **Get Rube MCP**: Add `https://rube.app/mcp` as an MCP server in your client configuration. No API keys needed — just add the endpoint and it works.
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+
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+
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+ 1. Verify Rube MCP is available by confirming `RUBE_SEARCH_TOOLS` responds
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+ 2. Call `RUBE_MANAGE_CONNECTIONS` with toolkit `mailchimp`
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+ 3. If connection is not ACTIVE, follow the returned auth link to complete Mailchimp OAuth
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+ 4. Confirm connection status shows ACTIVE before running any workflows
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+
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+ ## Core Workflows
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+
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+ ### 1. Create and Send Email Campaigns
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+
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+ **When to use**: User wants to create, configure, test, and send an email campaign.
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+
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+ **Tool sequence**:
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+ 1. `MAILCHIMP_GET_LISTS_INFO` - List available audiences and get list_id [Prerequisite]
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+ 2. `MAILCHIMP_ADD_CAMPAIGN` - Create a new campaign with type, audience, subject, from name [Required]
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+ 3. `MAILCHIMP_SET_CAMPAIGN_CONTENT` - Set HTML content for the campaign [Required]
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+ 4. `MAILCHIMP_SEND_TEST_EMAIL` - Send preview to reviewers before live send [Optional]
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+ 5. `MAILCHIMP_SEND_CAMPAIGN` - Send the campaign immediately [Required]
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+ 6. `MAILCHIMP_SCHEDULE_CAMPAIGN` - Schedule for future delivery instead of immediate send [Optional]
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+
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+ **Key parameters for MAILCHIMP_ADD_CAMPAIGN**:
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+ - `type`: "regular", "plaintext", "rss", or "variate" (required)
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+ - `recipients__list__id`: Audience/list ID for recipients
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+ - `settings__subject__line`: Email subject line
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+ - `settings__from__name`: Sender display name
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+ - `settings__reply__to`: Reply-to email address (required for sending)
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+ - `settings__title`: Internal campaign title
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+ - `settings__preview__text`: Preview text shown in inbox
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+
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+ **Key parameters for MAILCHIMP_SET_CAMPAIGN_CONTENT**:
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+ - `campaign_id`: Campaign ID from creation step (required)
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+ - `html`: Raw HTML content for the email
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+ - `plain_text`: Plain-text version (auto-generated if omitted)
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+ - `template__id`: Use a pre-built template instead of raw HTML
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+
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+ **Pitfalls**:
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+ - `MAILCHIMP_SEND_CAMPAIGN` is irreversible; always send a test email first and get explicit user approval
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+ - Campaign must be in "save" (draft) status with valid audience, subject, from name, verified email, and content before sending
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+ - `MAILCHIMP_SCHEDULE_CAMPAIGN` requires a valid future datetime; past timestamps fail
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+ - Templates and HTML content must include compliant footer/unsubscribe merge tags
62
+ - Mailchimp uses double-underscore notation for nested params (e.g., `settings__subject__line`)
63
+
64
+ ### 2. Manage Audiences and Subscribers
65
+
66
+ **When to use**: User wants to view audiences, list subscribers, or check subscriber details.
67
+
68
+ **Tool sequence**:
69
+ 1. `MAILCHIMP_GET_LISTS_INFO` - List all audiences with member counts [Required]
70
+ 2. `MAILCHIMP_GET_LIST_INFO` - Get details for a specific audience [Optional]
71
+ 3. `MAILCHIMP_LIST_MEMBERS_INFO` - List members with status filter and pagination [Required]
72
+ 4. `MAILCHIMP_SEARCH_MEMBERS` - Search by email or name across lists [Optional]
73
+ 5. `MAILCHIMP_GET_MEMBER_INFO` - Get detailed profile for a specific subscriber [Optional]
74
+ 6. `MAILCHIMP_LIST_SEGMENTS` - List segments within an audience [Optional]
75
+
76
+ **Key parameters for MAILCHIMP_LIST_MEMBERS_INFO**:
77
+ - `list_id`: Audience ID (required)
78
+ - `status`: "subscribed", "unsubscribed", "cleaned", "pending", "transactional", "archived"
79
+ - `count`: Records per page (default 10, max 1000)
80
+ - `offset`: Pagination offset (default 0)
81
+ - `sort_field`: "timestamp_opt", "timestamp_signup", or "last_changed"
82
+ - `fields`: Comma-separated list to limit response size
83
+
84
+ **Pitfalls**:
85
+ - `stats.avg_open_rate` and `stats.avg_click_rate` are 0-1 fractions, NOT 0-100 percentages
86
+ - Always use `status="subscribed"` to filter active subscribers; omitting returns all statuses
87
+ - Must paginate using `count` and `offset` until collected members match `total_items`
88
+ - Large list responses may be truncated; data is under `response.data.members`
89
+
90
+ ### 3. Add and Update Subscribers
91
+
92
+ **When to use**: User wants to add new subscribers, update existing ones, or bulk-manage list membership.
93
+
94
+ **Tool sequence**:
95
+ 1. `MAILCHIMP_GET_LIST_INFO` - Validate target audience exists [Prerequisite]
96
+ 2. `MAILCHIMP_SEARCH_MEMBERS` - Check if contact already exists [Optional]
97
+ 3. `MAILCHIMP_ADD_OR_UPDATE_LIST_MEMBER` - Upsert subscriber (create or update) [Required]
98
+ 4. `MAILCHIMP_ADD_MEMBER_TO_LIST` - Add new subscriber (create only) [Optional]
99
+ 5. `MAILCHIMP_BATCH_ADD_OR_REMOVE_MEMBERS` - Bulk manage segment membership [Optional]
100
+
101
+ **Key parameters for MAILCHIMP_ADD_OR_UPDATE_LIST_MEMBER**:
102
+ - `list_id`: Audience ID (required)
103
+ - `subscriber_hash`: MD5 hash of lowercase email (required)
104
+ - `email_address`: Subscriber email (required)
105
+ - `status_if_new`: Status for new subscribers: "subscribed", "pending", etc. (required)
106
+ - `status`: Status for existing subscribers
107
+ - `merge_fields`: Object with merge tag keys (e.g., `{"FNAME": "John", "LNAME": "Doe"}`)
108
+ - `tags`: Array of tag strings
109
+
110
+ **Key parameters for MAILCHIMP_ADD_MEMBER_TO_LIST**:
111
+ - `list_id`: Audience ID (required)
112
+ - `email_address`: Subscriber email (required)
113
+ - `status`: "subscribed", "pending", "unsubscribed", "cleaned", "transactional" (required)
114
+
115
+ **Pitfalls**:
116
+ - `subscriber_hash` must be MD5 of the **lowercase** email; incorrect casing causes 404s or duplicates
117
+ - Use `MAILCHIMP_ADD_OR_UPDATE_LIST_MEMBER` (upsert) instead of `MAILCHIMP_ADD_MEMBER_TO_LIST` to avoid duplicate errors
118
+ - `status_if_new` determines status only for new contacts; existing contacts use `status`
119
+ - Use `skip_merge_validation: true` to bypass required merge field validation
120
+ - `MAILCHIMP_BATCH_ADD_OR_REMOVE_MEMBERS` manages static segment membership, not list membership
121
+
122
+ ### 4. View Campaign Reports and Analytics
123
+
124
+ **When to use**: User wants to review campaign performance, open rates, click rates, or subscriber engagement.
125
+
126
+ **Tool sequence**:
127
+ 1. `MAILCHIMP_LIST_CAMPAIGNS` - List sent campaigns with report summaries [Required]
128
+ 2. `MAILCHIMP_SEARCH_CAMPAIGNS` - Find campaigns by name, subject, or content [Optional]
129
+ 3. `MAILCHIMP_GET_CAMPAIGN_REPORT` - Get detailed performance report for a campaign [Required]
130
+ 4. `MAILCHIMP_LIST_CAMPAIGN_REPORTS` - Bulk fetch reports across multiple campaigns [Optional]
131
+ 5. `MAILCHIMP_LIST_CAMPAIGN_DETAILS` - Get link-level click statistics [Optional]
132
+ 6. `MAILCHIMP_GET_CAMPAIGN_LINK_DETAILS` - Drill into specific link click data [Optional]
133
+ 7. `MAILCHIMP_LIST_CLICKED_LINK_SUBSCRIBERS` - See who clicked a specific link [Optional]
134
+ 8. `MAILCHIMP_GET_SUBSCRIBER_EMAIL_ACTIVITY` - Get per-subscriber campaign activity [Optional]
135
+ 9. `MAILCHIMP_GET_CAMPAIGN_CONTENT` - Retrieve campaign HTML content [Optional]
136
+
137
+ **Key parameters for MAILCHIMP_LIST_CAMPAIGNS**:
138
+ - `status`: "save", "paused", "schedule", "sending", "sent"
139
+ - `count` / `offset`: Pagination (default 10, max 1000)
140
+ - `since_send_time` / `before_send_time`: ISO 8601 date range filter
141
+ - `sort_field`: "create_time" or "send_time"
142
+ - `fields`: Limit response fields for performance
143
+
144
+ **Key parameters for MAILCHIMP_GET_CAMPAIGN_REPORT**:
145
+ - `campaign_id`: Campaign ID (required)
146
+ - Returns: opens, clicks, bounces, unsubscribes, timeseries, industry_stats
147
+
148
+ **Pitfalls**:
149
+ - `MAILCHIMP_LIST_CAMPAIGNS` only returns high-level `report_summary`; use `MAILCHIMP_GET_CAMPAIGN_REPORT` for detailed metrics
150
+ - Draft/unsent campaigns lack meaningful report data
151
+ - When using `fields` parameter on LIST_CAMPAIGNS, explicitly request `send_time` and `report_summary` subfields
152
+ - Pagination defaults are low (10 records); iterate with `count` and `offset` until `total_items` is covered
153
+ - `send_time` is ISO 8601 with timezone; parse carefully
154
+
155
+ ## Common Patterns
156
+
157
+ ### ID Resolution
158
+ Always resolve names to IDs before operations:
159
+ - **Audience name -> list_id**: `MAILCHIMP_GET_LISTS_INFO` and match by name
160
+ - **Subscriber email -> subscriber_hash**: Compute MD5 of lowercase email in code
161
+ - **Campaign name -> campaign_id**: `MAILCHIMP_SEARCH_CAMPAIGNS` with query
162
+ - **Segment name -> segment_id**: `MAILCHIMP_LIST_SEGMENTS` with list_id
163
+
164
+ ### Pagination
165
+ Mailchimp uses offset-based pagination:
166
+ - Use `count` (page size, max 1000) and `offset` (skip N records)
167
+ - Continue until collected records match `total_items` from the response
168
+ - Default `count` is 10; always set explicitly for bulk operations
169
+ - Search endpoints max at 10 pages (300 results for 30/page)
170
+
171
+ ### Subscriber Hash
172
+ Many endpoints require `subscriber_hash` (MD5 of lowercase email):
173
+ ```
174
+ import hashlib
175
+ subscriber_hash = hashlib.md5(email.lower().encode()).hexdigest()
176
+ ```
177
+
178
+ ## Known Pitfalls
179
+
180
+ ### ID Formats
181
+ - `list_id` (audience ID) is a short alphanumeric string (e.g., "abc123def4")
182
+ - `campaign_id` is an alphanumeric string
183
+ - `subscriber_hash` is an MD5 hex string (32 characters)
184
+ - Segment IDs are integers
185
+
186
+ ### Rate Limits
187
+ - Mailchimp enforces API rate limits; use batching for bulk subscriber operations
188
+ - High-volume use of GET_MEMBER_INFO and ADD_OR_UPDATE_LIST_MEMBER can trigger throttling
189
+ - Use `MAILCHIMP_BATCH_ADD_OR_REMOVE_MEMBERS` for bulk segment operations
190
+
191
+ ### Parameter Quirks
192
+ - Nested parameters use double-underscore notation: `settings__subject__line`, `recipients__list__id`
193
+ - `avg_open_rate` and `avg_click_rate` are 0-1 fractions, not percentages
194
+ - `status_if_new` only applies to new contacts in upsert operations
195
+ - `subscriber_hash` must be MD5 of lowercase email; wrong casing creates phantom records
196
+ - Campaign `type` is required for creation; most common is "regular"
197
+ - `MAILCHIMP_SEND_CAMPAIGN` returns HTTP 204 on success (no body)
198
+
199
+ ### Content and Compliance
200
+ - Campaign HTML must include unsubscribe link and physical address (merge tags)
201
+ - Content must be set via `MAILCHIMP_SET_CAMPAIGN_CONTENT` before sending
202
+ - Test emails require campaign to have content already set
203
+
204
+ ## Quick Reference
205
+
206
+ | Task | Tool Slug | Key Params |
207
+ |------|-----------|------------|
208
+ | List audiences | `MAILCHIMP_GET_LISTS_INFO` | `count`, `offset` |
209
+ | Get audience details | `MAILCHIMP_GET_LIST_INFO` | `list_id` |
210
+ | Create campaign | `MAILCHIMP_ADD_CAMPAIGN` | `type`, `recipients__list__id`, `settings__subject__line` |
211
+ | Set campaign content | `MAILCHIMP_SET_CAMPAIGN_CONTENT` | `campaign_id`, `html` |
212
+ | Send test email | `MAILCHIMP_SEND_TEST_EMAIL` | `campaign_id`, `test_emails` |
213
+ | Send campaign | `MAILCHIMP_SEND_CAMPAIGN` | `campaign_id` |
214
+ | Schedule campaign | `MAILCHIMP_SCHEDULE_CAMPAIGN` | `campaign_id`, `schedule_time` |
215
+ | Get campaign info | `MAILCHIMP_GET_CAMPAIGN_INFO` | `campaign_id` |
216
+ | Search campaigns | `MAILCHIMP_SEARCH_CAMPAIGNS` | `query` |
217
+ | List campaigns | `MAILCHIMP_LIST_CAMPAIGNS` | `status`, `count`, `offset` |
218
+ | Replicate campaign | `MAILCHIMP_REPLICATE_CAMPAIGN` | `campaign_id` |
219
+ | List subscribers | `MAILCHIMP_LIST_MEMBERS_INFO` | `list_id`, `status`, `count`, `offset` |
220
+ | Search members | `MAILCHIMP_SEARCH_MEMBERS` | `query`, `list_id` |
221
+ | Get member info | `MAILCHIMP_GET_MEMBER_INFO` | `list_id`, `subscriber_hash` |
222
+ | Add subscriber | `MAILCHIMP_ADD_MEMBER_TO_LIST` | `list_id`, `email_address`, `status` |
223
+ | Upsert subscriber | `MAILCHIMP_ADD_OR_UPDATE_LIST_MEMBER` | `list_id`, `subscriber_hash`, `email_address`, `status_if_new` |
224
+ | Batch members | `MAILCHIMP_BATCH_ADD_OR_REMOVE_MEMBERS` | `list_id`, `segment_id` |
225
+ | List segments | `MAILCHIMP_LIST_SEGMENTS` | `list_id` |
226
+ | Campaign report | `MAILCHIMP_GET_CAMPAIGN_REPORT` | `campaign_id` |
227
+ | All reports | `MAILCHIMP_LIST_CAMPAIGN_REPORTS` | `count`, `offset` |
228
+ | Link click details | `MAILCHIMP_LIST_CAMPAIGN_DETAILS` | `campaign_id`, `count` |
229
+ | Subscriber activity | `MAILCHIMP_GET_SUBSCRIBER_EMAIL_ACTIVITY` | `campaign_id`, `subscriber_hash` |
230
+ | Member recent activity | `MAILCHIMP_VIEW_RECENT_ACTIVITY` | `list_id`, `subscriber_hash` |
231
+ | Campaign content | `MAILCHIMP_GET_CAMPAIGN_CONTENT` | `campaign_id` |
@@ -0,0 +1,425 @@
1
+ ---
2
+ name: market-sizing-analysis
3
+ description: This skill should be used when the user asks to "calculate TAM",
4
+ "determine SAM", "estimate SOM", "size the market", "calculate market
5
+ opportunity", "what's the total addressable market", or requests market sizing
6
+ analysis for a startup or business opportunity.
7
+ metadata:
8
+ version: 1.0.0
9
+ ---
10
+
11
+ # Market Sizing Analysis
12
+
13
+ Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.
14
+
15
+ ## Use this skill when
16
+
17
+ - Working on market sizing analysis tasks or workflows
18
+ - Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market sizing analysis
19
+
20
+ ## Do not use this skill when
21
+
22
+ - The task is unrelated to market sizing analysis
23
+ - You need a different domain or tool outside this scope
24
+
25
+ ## Instructions
26
+
27
+ - Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
28
+ - Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
29
+ - Provide actionable steps and verification.
30
+ - If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.
31
+
32
+ ## Overview
33
+
34
+ Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).
35
+
36
+ ## Core Concepts
37
+
38
+ ### The Three-Tier Market Framework
39
+
40
+ **TAM (Total Addressable Market)**
41
+ - Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
42
+ - Defines the universe of potential customers
43
+ - Used for long-term vision and market validation
44
+ - Example: All email marketing software revenue globally
45
+
46
+ **SAM (Serviceable Available Market)**
47
+ - Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
48
+ - Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
49
+ - Represents realistic addressable opportunity
50
+ - Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America
51
+
52
+ **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)**
53
+ - Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
54
+ - Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
55
+ - Used for financial projections and fundraising
56
+ - Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape
57
+
58
+ ### When to Use Each Methodology
59
+
60
+ **Top-Down Analysis**
61
+ - Use when established market research exists
62
+ - Best for mature, well-defined markets
63
+ - Validates market existence and growth
64
+ - Starts with industry reports and narrows down
65
+
66
+ **Bottom-Up Analysis**
67
+ - Use when targeting specific customer segments
68
+ - Best for new or niche markets
69
+ - Most credible for investors
70
+ - Builds from customer data and pricing
71
+
72
+ **Value Theory**
73
+ - Use when creating new market categories
74
+ - Best for disruptive innovations
75
+ - Estimates based on value creation
76
+ - Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution
77
+
78
+ ## Three-Methodology Framework
79
+
80
+ ### Methodology 1: Top-Down Analysis
81
+
82
+ Start with total market size and narrow to addressable segments.
83
+
84
+ **Process:**
85
+ 1. Identify total market category from research reports
86
+ 2. Apply geographic filters (target regions)
87
+ 3. Apply segment filters (target industries/customers)
88
+ 4. Calculate competitive positioning adjustments
89
+
90
+ **Formula:**
91
+ ```
92
+ TAM = Total Market Category Size
93
+ SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Segment %
94
+ SOM = SAM × Realistic Capture Rate (2-5%)
95
+ ```
96
+
97
+ **When to use:** Established markets with available research (e.g., SaaS, fintech, e-commerce)
98
+
99
+ **Strengths:** Quick, uses credible data, validates market existence
100
+
101
+ **Limitations:** May overestimate for new categories, less granular
102
+
103
+ ### Methodology 2: Bottom-Up Analysis
104
+
105
+ Build market size from customer segment calculations.
106
+
107
+ **Process:**
108
+ 1. Define target customer segments
109
+ 2. Estimate number of potential customers per segment
110
+ 3. Determine average revenue per customer
111
+ 4. Calculate realistic penetration rates
112
+
113
+ **Formula:**
114
+ ```
115
+ TAM = Σ (Segment Size × Annual Revenue per Customer)
116
+ SAM = TAM × (Segments You Can Serve / Total Segments)
117
+ SOM = SAM × Realistic Penetration Rate (Year 3-5)
118
+ ```
119
+
120
+ **When to use:** B2B, niche markets, specific customer segments
121
+
122
+ **Strengths:** Most credible for investors, granular, defensible
123
+
124
+ **Limitations:** Requires detailed customer research, time-intensive
125
+
126
+ ### Methodology 3: Value Theory
127
+
128
+ Calculate based on value created and willingness to pay.
129
+
130
+ **Process:**
131
+ 1. Identify problem being solved
132
+ 2. Quantify current cost of problem (time, money, inefficiency)
133
+ 3. Calculate value of solution (savings, gains, efficiency)
134
+ 4. Estimate willingness to pay (typically 10-30% of value)
135
+ 5. Multiply by addressable customer base
136
+
137
+ **Formula:**
138
+ ```
139
+ Value per Customer = Problem Cost × % Solved by Solution
140
+ Price per Customer = Value × Willingness to Pay % (10-30%)
141
+ TAM = Total Potential Customers × Price per Customer
142
+ SAM = TAM × % Meeting Buy Criteria
143
+ SOM = SAM × Realistic Adoption Rate
144
+ ```
145
+
146
+ **When to use:** New categories, disruptive innovations, unclear existing markets
147
+
148
+ **Strengths:** Shows value creation, works for new markets
149
+
150
+ **Limitations:** Requires assumptions, harder to validate
151
+
152
+ ## Step-by-Step Process
153
+
154
+ ### Step 1: Define the Market
155
+
156
+ Clearly specify what market is being measured.
157
+
158
+ **Questions to answer:**
159
+ - What problem is being solved?
160
+ - Who are the target customers?
161
+ - What's the product/service category?
162
+ - What's the geographic scope?
163
+ - What's the time horizon?
164
+
165
+ **Example:**
166
+ - Problem: E-commerce companies struggle with email marketing automation
167
+ - Customers: E-commerce stores with >$1M annual revenue
168
+ - Category: AI-powered email marketing software
169
+ - Geography: North America initially, global expansion
170
+ - Horizon: 3-5 year opportunity
171
+
172
+ ### Step 2: Gather Data Sources
173
+
174
+ Identify credible data for calculations.
175
+
176
+ **Top-Down Sources:**
177
+ - Industry research reports (Gartner, Forrester, IDC)
178
+ - Government statistics (Census, BLS, trade associations)
179
+ - Public company filings and earnings
180
+ - Market research firms (Statista, CB Insights, PitchBook)
181
+
182
+ **Bottom-Up Sources:**
183
+ - Customer interviews and surveys
184
+ - Sales data and CRM records
185
+ - Industry databases (LinkedIn, ZoomInfo, Crunchbase)
186
+ - Competitive intelligence
187
+ - Academic research
188
+
189
+ **Value Theory Sources:**
190
+ - Customer problem quantification
191
+ - Time/cost studies
192
+ - ROI case studies
193
+ - Pricing research and willingness-to-pay surveys
194
+
195
+ ### Step 3: Calculate TAM
196
+
197
+ Apply chosen methodology to determine total market.
198
+
199
+ **For Top-Down:**
200
+ 1. Find total category size from research
201
+ 2. Document data source and year
202
+ 3. Apply growth rate if needed
203
+ 4. Validate with multiple sources
204
+
205
+ **For Bottom-Up:**
206
+ 1. Count total potential customers
207
+ 2. Calculate average annual revenue per customer
208
+ 3. Multiply to get TAM
209
+ 4. Break down by segment
210
+
211
+ **For Value Theory:**
212
+ 1. Quantify total addressable customer base
213
+ 2. Calculate value per customer
214
+ 3. Estimate pricing based on value
215
+ 4. Multiply for TAM
216
+
217
+ ### Step 4: Calculate SAM
218
+
219
+ Narrow TAM to serviceable addressable market.
220
+
221
+ **Apply Filters:**
222
+ - Geographic constraints (regions you can serve)
223
+ - Product limitations (features you currently have)
224
+ - Customer requirements (size, industry, use case)
225
+ - Distribution channel access
226
+ - Regulatory or compliance restrictions
227
+
228
+ **Formula:**
229
+ ```
230
+ SAM = TAM × (% matching all filters)
231
+ ```
232
+
233
+ **Example:**
234
+ - TAM: $10B global email marketing
235
+ - Geographic filter: 40% (North America)
236
+ - Product filter: 30% (e-commerce focus)
237
+ - Feature filter: 60% (need AI capabilities)
238
+ - SAM = $10B × 0.40 × 0.30 × 0.60 = $720M
239
+
240
+ ### Step 5: Calculate SOM
241
+
242
+ Determine realistic obtainable market share.
243
+
244
+ **Consider:**
245
+ - Current market share of competitors
246
+ - Typical market share for new entrants (2-5%)
247
+ - Resources available (funding, team, time)
248
+ - Go-to-market effectiveness
249
+ - Competitive advantages
250
+ - Time to achieve (3-5 years typically)
251
+
252
+ **Conservative Approach:**
253
+ ```
254
+ SOM (Year 3) = SAM × 2%
255
+ SOM (Year 5) = SAM × 5%
256
+ ```
257
+
258
+ **Example:**
259
+ - SAM: $720M
260
+ - Year 3 SOM: $720M × 2% = $14.4M
261
+ - Year 5 SOM: $720M × 5% = $36M
262
+
263
+ ### Step 6: Validate and Triangulate
264
+
265
+ Cross-check using multiple methods.
266
+
267
+ **Validation Techniques:**
268
+ 1. Compare top-down and bottom-up results (should be within 30%)
269
+ 2. Check against public company revenues in space
270
+ 3. Validate customer count assumptions
271
+ 4. Sense-check pricing assumptions
272
+ 5. Review with industry experts
273
+ 6. Compare to similar market categories
274
+
275
+ **Red Flags:**
276
+ - TAM that's too small (< $1B for VC-backed startups)
277
+ - TAM that's too large (unsupported by data)
278
+ - SOM that's too aggressive (> 10% in 5 years for new entrant)
279
+ - Inconsistency between methodologies (> 50% difference)
280
+
281
+ ## Industry-Specific Considerations
282
+
283
+ ### SaaS Markets
284
+
285
+ **Key Metrics:**
286
+ - Number of potential businesses in target segment
287
+ - Average contract value (ACV)
288
+ - Typical market penetration rates
289
+ - Expansion revenue potential
290
+
291
+ **TAM Calculation:**
292
+ ```
293
+ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average ACV × (1 + Expansion Rate)
294
+ ```
295
+
296
+ ### Marketplace Markets
297
+
298
+ **Key Metrics:**
299
+ - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of category
300
+ - Take rate (% of GMV you capture)
301
+ - Total transactions or users
302
+
303
+ **TAM Calculation:**
304
+ ```
305
+ TAM = Total Category GMV × Expected Take Rate
306
+ ```
307
+
308
+ ### Consumer Markets
309
+
310
+ **Key Metrics:**
311
+ - Total addressable users/households
312
+ - Average revenue per user (ARPU)
313
+ - Engagement frequency
314
+
315
+ **TAM Calculation:**
316
+ ```
317
+ TAM = Total Users × ARPU × Purchase Frequency per Year
318
+ ```
319
+
320
+ ### B2B Services
321
+
322
+ **Key Metrics:**
323
+ - Number of target companies by size/industry
324
+ - Average project value or retainer
325
+ - Typical buying frequency
326
+
327
+ **TAM Calculation:**
328
+ ```
329
+ TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
330
+ ```
331
+
332
+ ## Presenting Market Sizing
333
+
334
+ ### For Investors
335
+
336
+ **Structure:**
337
+ 1. Market definition and problem scope
338
+ 2. TAM/SAM/SOM with methodology
339
+ 3. Data sources and assumptions
340
+ 4. Growth projections and drivers
341
+ 5. Competitive landscape context
342
+
343
+ **Key Points:**
344
+ - Lead with bottom-up calculation (most credible)
345
+ - Show triangulation with top-down
346
+ - Explain conservative assumptions
347
+ - Link to revenue projections
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+ - Highlight market growth rate
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+
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+ ### For Strategy
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+
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+ **Structure:**
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+ 1. Addressable customer segments
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+ 2. Prioritization by opportunity size
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+ 3. Entry strategy by segment
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+ 4. Expected penetration timeline
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+ 5. Resource requirements
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+
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+ **Key Points:**
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+ - Focus on SAM and SOM
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+ - Show segment-level detail
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+ - Connect to go-to-market plan
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+ - Identify expansion opportunities
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+ - Discuss competitive positioning
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+
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+ ## Common Mistakes to Avoid
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+
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+ **Mistake 1: Confusing TAM with SAM**
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+ - Don't claim entire market as addressable
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+ - Apply realistic product/geographic constraints
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+ - Be honest about serviceable market
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+
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+ **Mistake 2: Overly Aggressive SOM**
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+ - New entrants rarely capture > 5% in 5 years
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+ - Account for competition and resources
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+ - Show realistic ramp timeline
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+
378
+ **Mistake 3: Using Only Top-Down**
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+ - Investors prefer bottom-up validation
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+ - Top-down alone lacks credibility
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+ - Always triangulate with multiple methods
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+
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+ **Mistake 4: Cherry-Picking Data**
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+ - Use consistent, recent data sources
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+ - Don't mix methodologies inappropriately
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+ - Document all assumptions clearly
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+
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+ **Mistake 5: Ignoring Market Dynamics**
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+ - Account for market growth/decline
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+ - Consider competitive intensity
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+ - Factor in switching costs and barriers
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+
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+ ## Additional Resources
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+
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+ ### Reference Files
396
+
397
+ For detailed methodologies and frameworks:
398
+ - **`references/methodology-deep-dive.md`** - Comprehensive guide to each methodology with step-by-step worksheets
399
+ - **`references/data-sources.md`** - Curated list of market research sources, databases, and tools
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+ - **`references/industry-templates.md`** - Specific templates for SaaS, marketplace, consumer, B2B, and fintech markets
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+
402
+ ### Example Files
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+
404
+ Working examples with complete calculations:
405
+ - **`examples/saas-market-sizing.md`** - Complete TAM/SAM/SOM for a B2B SaaS product
406
+ - **`examples/marketplace-sizing.md`** - Marketplace platform market opportunity calculation
407
+ - **`examples/value-theory-example.md`** - Value-based market sizing for disruptive innovation
408
+
409
+ Use these examples as templates for your own market sizing analysis. Each includes real numbers, data sources, and assumptions documented clearly.
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+
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+ ## Quick Start
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+
413
+ To perform market sizing analysis:
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+
415
+ 1. **Define the market** - Problem, customers, category, geography
416
+ 2. **Choose methodology** - Bottom-up (preferred) or top-down + triangulation
417
+ 3. **Gather data** - Industry reports, customer data, competitive intelligence
418
+ 4. **Calculate TAM** - Apply methodology formula
419
+ 5. **Narrow to SAM** - Apply product, geographic, segment filters
420
+ 6. **Estimate SOM** - 2-5% realistic capture rate
421
+ 7. **Validate** - Cross-check with alternative methods
422
+ 8. **Document** - Show methodology, sources, assumptions
423
+ 9. **Present** - Structure for audience (investors, strategy, operations)
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+
425
+ For detailed step-by-step guidance on each methodology, reference the files in `references/` directory. For complete worked examples, see `examples/` directory.