bmalph 1.0.0 → 2.2.1

package/bmad/bmm/testarch/knowledge/probability-impact.md

@@ -1,601 +0,0 @@
-# Probability and Impact Scale
-
-## Principle
-
-Risk scoring uses a **probability × impact** matrix (1-9 scale) to prioritize testing efforts. Higher scores (6-9) demand immediate action; lower scores (1-3) require documentation only. This systematic approach ensures testing resources focus on the highest-value risks.
-
-## Rationale
-
-**The Problem**: Without quantifiable risk assessment, teams over-test low-value scenarios while missing critical risks. Gut feeling leads to inconsistent prioritization and missed edge cases.
-
-**The Solution**: Standardize risk evaluation with a 3×3 matrix (probability: 1-3, impact: 1-3). Multiply to derive risk score (1-9). Automate classification (DOCUMENT, MONITOR, MITIGATE, BLOCK) based on thresholds. This approach surfaces hidden risks early and justifies testing decisions to stakeholders.
-
-**Why This Matters**:
-
-- Consistent risk language across product, engineering, and QA
-- Objective prioritization of test scenarios (not politics)
-- Automatic gate decisions (score=9 → FAIL until resolved)
-- Audit trail for compliance and retrospectives
-
-## Pattern Examples
-
-### Example 1: Probability-Impact Matrix Implementation (Automated Classification)
-
-**Context**: Implement a reusable risk scoring system with automatic threshold classification
-
-**Implementation**:
-
-```typescript
-// src/testing/risk-matrix.ts
-
-/**
- * Probability levels:
- * 1 = Unlikely (standard implementation, low uncertainty)
- * 2 = Possible (edge cases or partial unknowns)
- * 3 = Likely (known issues, new integrations, high ambiguity)
- */
-export type Probability = 1 | 2 | 3;
-
-/**
- * Impact levels:
- * 1 = Minor (cosmetic issues or easy workarounds)
- * 2 = Degraded (partial feature loss or manual workaround)
- * 3 = Critical (blockers, data/security/regulatory exposure)
- */
-export type Impact = 1 | 2 | 3;
-
-/**
- * Risk score (probability × impact): 1-9
- */
-export type RiskScore = 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9;
-
-/**
- * Action categories based on risk score thresholds
- */
-export type RiskAction = 'DOCUMENT' | 'MONITOR' | 'MITIGATE' | 'BLOCK';
-
-export type RiskAssessment = {
-  probability: Probability;
-  impact: Impact;
-  score: RiskScore;
-  action: RiskAction;
-  reasoning: string;
-};
-
-/**
- * Calculate risk score: probability × impact
- */
-export function calculateRiskScore(probability: Probability, impact: Impact): RiskScore {
-  return (probability * impact) as RiskScore;
-}
-
-/**
- * Classify risk action based on score thresholds:
- * - 1-3: DOCUMENT (awareness only)
- * - 4-5: MONITOR (watch closely, plan mitigations)
- * - 6-8: MITIGATE (CONCERNS at gate until mitigated)
- * - 9: BLOCK (automatic FAIL until resolved or waived)
- */
-export function classifyRiskAction(score: RiskScore): RiskAction {
-  if (score >= 9) return 'BLOCK';
-  if (score >= 6) return 'MITIGATE';
-  if (score >= 4) return 'MONITOR';
-  return 'DOCUMENT';
-}
-
-/**
- * Full risk assessment with automatic classification
- */
-export function assessRisk(params: { probability: Probability; impact: Impact; reasoning: string }): RiskAssessment {
-  const { probability, impact, reasoning } = params;
-
-  const score = calculateRiskScore(probability, impact);
-  const action = classifyRiskAction(score);
-
-  return { probability, impact, score, action, reasoning };
-}
-
-/**
- * Generate risk matrix visualization (3x3 grid)
- * Returns markdown table with color-coded scores
- */
-export function generateRiskMatrix(): string {
-  const matrix: string[][] = [];
-  const header = ['Impact \\ Probability', 'Unlikely (1)', 'Possible (2)', 'Likely (3)'];
-  matrix.push(header);
-
-  const impactLabels = ['Critical (3)', 'Degraded (2)', 'Minor (1)'];
-  for (let impact = 3; impact >= 1; impact--) {
-    const row = [impactLabels[3 - impact]];
-    for (let probability = 1; probability <= 3; probability++) {
-      const score = calculateRiskScore(probability as Probability, impact as Impact);
-      const action = classifyRiskAction(score);
-      const emoji = action === 'BLOCK' ? '🔴' : action === 'MITIGATE' ? '🟠' : action === 'MONITOR' ? '🟡' : '🟢';
-      row.push(`${emoji} ${score}`);
-    }
-    matrix.push(row);
-  }
-
-  return matrix.map((row) => `| ${row.join(' | ')} |`).join('\n');
-}
-```
-
-**Key Points**:
-
-- Type-safe probability/impact (1-3 enforced at compile time)
-- Automatic action classification (DOCUMENT, MONITOR, MITIGATE, BLOCK)
-- Visual matrix generation for documentation
-- Risk score formula: `probability * impact` (max = 9)
-- Threshold-based decision rules (6-8 = MITIGATE, 9 = BLOCK)
-
----
-
-### Example 2: Risk Assessment Workflow (Test Planning Integration)
-
-**Context**: Apply risk matrix during test design to prioritize scenarios
-
-**Implementation**:
-
-```typescript
-// tests/e2e/test-planning/risk-assessment.ts
-import { assessRisk, generateRiskMatrix, type RiskAssessment } from '../../../src/testing/risk-matrix';
-
-export type TestScenario = {
-  id: string;
-  title: string;
-  feature: string;
-  risk: RiskAssessment;
-  testLevel: 'E2E' | 'API' | 'Unit';
-  priority: 'P0' | 'P1' | 'P2' | 'P3';
-  owner: string;
-};
-
-/**
- * Assess test scenarios and auto-assign priority based on risk score
- */
-export function assessTestScenarios(scenarios: Omit<TestScenario, 'risk' | 'priority'>[]): TestScenario[] {
-  return scenarios.map((scenario) => {
-    // Auto-assign priority based on risk score
-    const priority = mapRiskToPriority(scenario.risk.score);
-    return { ...scenario, priority };
-  });
-}
-
-/**
- * Map risk score to test priority (P0-P3)
- * P0: Critical (score 9) - blocks release
- * P1: High (score 6-8) - must fix before release
- * P2: Medium (score 4-5) - fix if time permits
- * P3: Low (score 1-3) - document and defer
- */
-function mapRiskToPriority(score: number): 'P0' | 'P1' | 'P2' | 'P3' {
-  if (score === 9) return 'P0';
-  if (score >= 6) return 'P1';
-  if (score >= 4) return 'P2';
-  return 'P3';
-}
-
-/**
- * Example: Payment flow risk assessment
- */
-export const paymentScenarios: Array<Omit<TestScenario, 'priority'>> = [
-  {
-    id: 'PAY-001',
-    title: 'Valid credit card payment completes successfully',
-    feature: 'Checkout',
-    risk: assessRisk({
-      probability: 2, // Possible (standard Stripe integration)
-      impact: 3, // Critical (revenue loss if broken)
-      reasoning: 'Core revenue flow, but Stripe is well-tested',
-    }),
-    testLevel: 'E2E',
-    owner: 'qa-team',
-  },
-  {
-    id: 'PAY-002',
-    title: 'Expired credit card shows user-friendly error',
-    feature: 'Checkout',
-    risk: assessRisk({
-      probability: 3, // Likely (edge case handling often buggy)
-      impact: 2, // Degraded (users see error, but can retry)
-      reasoning: 'Error handling logic is custom and complex',
-    }),
-    testLevel: 'E2E',
-    owner: 'qa-team',
-  },
-  {
-    id: 'PAY-003',
-    title: 'Payment confirmation email formatting is correct',
-    feature: 'Email',
-    risk: assessRisk({
-      probability: 2, // Possible (template changes occasionally break)
-      impact: 1, // Minor (cosmetic issue, email still sent)
-      reasoning: 'Non-blocking, users get email regardless',
-    }),
-    testLevel: 'Unit',
-    owner: 'dev-team',
-  },
-  {
-    id: 'PAY-004',
-    title: 'Payment fails gracefully when Stripe is down',
-    feature: 'Checkout',
-    risk: assessRisk({
-      probability: 1, // Unlikely (Stripe has 99.99% uptime)
-      impact: 3, // Critical (complete checkout failure)
-      reasoning: 'Rare but catastrophic, requires retry mechanism',
-    }),
-    testLevel: 'API',
-    owner: 'qa-team',
-  },
-];
-
-/**
- * Generate risk assessment report with priority distribution
- */
-export function generateRiskReport(scenarios: TestScenario[]): string {
-  const priorityCounts = scenarios.reduce(
-    (acc, s) => {
-      acc[s.priority] = (acc[s.priority] || 0) + 1;
-      return acc;
-    },
-    {} as Record<string, number>,
-  );
-
-  const actionCounts = scenarios.reduce(
-    (acc, s) => {
-      acc[s.risk.action] = (acc[s.risk.action] || 0) + 1;
-      return acc;
-    },
-    {} as Record<string, number>,
-  );
-
-  return `
-# Risk Assessment Report
-
-## Risk Matrix
-${generateRiskMatrix()}
-
-## Priority Distribution
-- **P0 (Blocker)**: ${priorityCounts.P0 || 0} scenarios
-- **P1 (High)**: ${priorityCounts.P1 || 0} scenarios
-- **P2 (Medium)**: ${priorityCounts.P2 || 0} scenarios
-- **P3 (Low)**: ${priorityCounts.P3 || 0} scenarios
-
-## Action Required
-- **BLOCK**: ${actionCounts.BLOCK || 0} scenarios (auto-fail gate)
-- **MITIGATE**: ${actionCounts.MITIGATE || 0} scenarios (concerns at gate)
-- **MONITOR**: ${actionCounts.MONITOR || 0} scenarios (watch closely)
-- **DOCUMENT**: ${actionCounts.DOCUMENT || 0} scenarios (awareness only)
-
-## Scenarios by Risk Score (Highest First)
-${scenarios
-  .sort((a, b) => b.risk.score - a.risk.score)
-  .map((s) => `- **[${s.priority}]** ${s.id}: ${s.title} (Score: ${s.risk.score} - ${s.risk.action})`)
-  .join('\n')}
-`.trim();
-}
-```
-
-**Key Points**:
-
-- Risk score → Priority mapping (P0-P3 automated)
-- Report generation with priority/action distribution
-- Scenarios sorted by risk score (highest first)
-- Visual matrix included in reports
-- Reusable across projects (extract to shared library)
-
----
-
-### Example 3: Dynamic Risk Re-Assessment (Continuous Evaluation)
-
-**Context**: Recalculate risk scores as project evolves (requirements change, mitigations implemented)
-
-**Implementation**:
-
-```typescript
-// src/testing/risk-tracking.ts
-import { type RiskAssessment, assessRisk, type Probability, type Impact } from './risk-matrix';
-
-export type RiskHistory = {
-  timestamp: Date;
-  assessment: RiskAssessment;
-  changedBy: string;
-  reason: string;
-};
-
-export type TrackedRisk = {
-  id: string;
-  title: string;
-  feature: string;
-  currentRisk: RiskAssessment;
-  history: RiskHistory[];
-  mitigations: string[];
-  status: 'OPEN' | 'MITIGATED' | 'WAIVED' | 'RESOLVED';
-};
-
-export class RiskTracker {
-  private risks: Map<string, TrackedRisk> = new Map();
-
-  /**
-   * Add new risk to tracker
-   */
-  addRisk(params: {
-    id: string;
-    title: string;
-    feature: string;
-    probability: Probability;
-    impact: Impact;
-    reasoning: string;
-    changedBy: string;
-  }): TrackedRisk {
-    const { id, title, feature, probability, impact, reasoning, changedBy } = params;
-
-    const assessment = assessRisk({ probability, impact, reasoning });
-
-    const risk: TrackedRisk = {
-      id,
-      title,
-      feature,
-      currentRisk: assessment,
-      history: [
-        {
-          timestamp: new Date(),
-          assessment,
-          changedBy,
-          reason: 'Initial assessment',
-        },
-      ],
-      mitigations: [],
-      status: 'OPEN',
-    };
-
-    this.risks.set(id, risk);
-    return risk;
-  }
-
-  /**
-   * Reassess risk (probability or impact changed)
-   */
-  reassessRisk(params: {
-    id: string;
-    probability?: Probability;
-    impact?: Impact;
-    reasoning: string;
-    changedBy: string;
-  }): TrackedRisk | null {
-    const { id, probability, impact, reasoning, changedBy } = params;
-    const risk = this.risks.get(id);
-    if (!risk) return null;
-
-    // Use existing values if not provided
-    const newProbability = probability ?? risk.currentRisk.probability;
-    const newImpact = impact ?? risk.currentRisk.impact;
-
-    const newAssessment = assessRisk({
-      probability: newProbability,
-      impact: newImpact,
-      reasoning,
-    });
-
-    risk.currentRisk = newAssessment;
-    risk.history.push({
-      timestamp: new Date(),
-      assessment: newAssessment,
-      changedBy,
-      reason: reasoning,
-    });
-
-    this.risks.set(id, risk);
-    return risk;
-  }
-
-  /**
-   * Mark risk as mitigated (probability reduced)
-   */
-  mitigateRisk(params: { id: string; newProbability: Probability; mitigation: string; changedBy: string }): TrackedRisk | null {
-    const { id, newProbability, mitigation, changedBy } = params;
-    const risk = this.reassessRisk({
-      id,
-      probability: newProbability,
-      reasoning: `Mitigation implemented: ${mitigation}`,
-      changedBy,
-    });
-
-    if (risk) {
-      risk.mitigations.push(mitigation);
-      if (risk.currentRisk.action === 'DOCUMENT' || risk.currentRisk.action === 'MONITOR') {
-        risk.status = 'MITIGATED';
-      }
-    }
-
-    return risk;
-  }
-
-  /**
-   * Get risks requiring action (MITIGATE or BLOCK)
-   */
-  getRisksRequiringAction(): TrackedRisk[] {
-    return Array.from(this.risks.values()).filter(
-      (r) => r.status === 'OPEN' && (r.currentRisk.action === 'MITIGATE' || r.currentRisk.action === 'BLOCK'),
-    );
-  }
-
-  /**
-   * Generate risk trend report (show changes over time)
-   */
-  generateTrendReport(riskId: string): string | null {
-    const risk = this.risks.get(riskId);
-    if (!risk) return null;
-
-    return `
-# Risk Trend Report: ${risk.id}
-
-**Title**: ${risk.title}
-**Feature**: ${risk.feature}
-**Status**: ${risk.status}
-
-## Current Assessment
-- **Probability**: ${risk.currentRisk.probability}
-- **Impact**: ${risk.currentRisk.impact}
-- **Score**: ${risk.currentRisk.score}
-- **Action**: ${risk.currentRisk.action}
-- **Reasoning**: ${risk.currentRisk.reasoning}
-
-## Mitigations Applied
-${risk.mitigations.length > 0 ? risk.mitigations.map((m) => `- ${m}`).join('\n') : '- None'}
-
-## History (${risk.history.length} changes)
-${risk.history
-  .reverse()
-  .map((h) => `- **${h.timestamp.toISOString()}** by ${h.changedBy}: Score ${h.assessment.score} (${h.assessment.action}) - ${h.reason}`)
-  .join('\n')}
-`.trim();
-  }
-}
-```
-
-**Key Points**:
-
-- Historical tracking (audit trail for risk changes)
-- Mitigation impact tracking (probability reduction)
-- Status lifecycle (OPEN → MITIGATED → RESOLVED)
-- Trend reports (show risk evolution over time)
-- Re-assessment triggers (requirements change, new info)
-
----
-
-### Example 4: Risk Matrix in Gate Decision (Integration with Trace Workflow)
-
-**Context**: Use probability-impact scores to drive gate decisions (PASS/CONCERNS/FAIL/WAIVED)
-
-**Implementation**:
-
-```typescript
-// src/testing/gate-decision.ts
-import { type RiskScore, classifyRiskAction, type RiskAction } from './risk-matrix';
-import { type TrackedRisk } from './risk-tracking';
-
-export type GateDecision = 'PASS' | 'CONCERNS' | 'FAIL' | 'WAIVED';
-
-export type GateResult = {
-  decision: GateDecision;
-  blockers: TrackedRisk[]; // Score=9, action=BLOCK
-  concerns: TrackedRisk[]; // Score 6-8, action=MITIGATE
-  monitored: TrackedRisk[]; // Score 4-5, action=MONITOR
-  documented: TrackedRisk[]; // Score 1-3, action=DOCUMENT
-  summary: string;
-};
-
-/**
- * Evaluate gate based on risk assessments
- */
-export function evaluateGateFromRisks(risks: TrackedRisk[]): GateResult {
-  const blockers = risks.filter((r) => r.currentRisk.action === 'BLOCK' && r.status === 'OPEN');
-  const concerns = risks.filter((r) => r.currentRisk.action === 'MITIGATE' && r.status === 'OPEN');
-  const monitored = risks.filter((r) => r.currentRisk.action === 'MONITOR');
-  const documented = risks.filter((r) => r.currentRisk.action === 'DOCUMENT');
-
-  let decision: GateDecision;
-
-  if (blockers.length > 0) {
-    decision = 'FAIL';
-  } else if (concerns.length > 0) {
-    decision = 'CONCERNS';
-  } else {
-    decision = 'PASS';
-  }
-
-  const summary = generateGateSummary({ decision, blockers, concerns, monitored, documented });
-
-  return { decision, blockers, concerns, monitored, documented, summary };
-}
-
-/**
- * Generate gate decision summary
- */
-function generateGateSummary(result: Omit<GateResult, 'summary'>): string {
-  const { decision, blockers, concerns, monitored, documented } = result;
-
-  const lines: string[] = [`## Gate Decision: ${decision}`];
-
-  if (decision === 'FAIL') {
-    lines.push(`\n**Blockers** (${blockers.length}): Automatic FAIL until resolved or waived`);
-    blockers.forEach((r) => {
-      lines.push(`- **${r.id}**: ${r.title} (Score: ${r.currentRisk.score})`);
-      lines.push(`  - Probability: ${r.currentRisk.probability}, Impact: ${r.currentRisk.impact}`);
-      lines.push(`  - Reasoning: ${r.currentRisk.reasoning}`);
-    });
-  }
-
-  if (concerns.length > 0) {
-    lines.push(`\n**Concerns** (${concerns.length}): Address before release`);
-    concerns.forEach((r) => {
-      lines.push(`- **${r.id}**: ${r.title} (Score: ${r.currentRisk.score})`);
-      lines.push(`  - Mitigations: ${r.mitigations.join(', ') || 'None'}`);
-    });
-  }
-
-  if (monitored.length > 0) {
-    lines.push(`\n**Monitored** (${monitored.length}): Watch closely`);
-    monitored.forEach((r) => lines.push(`- **${r.id}**: ${r.title} (Score: ${r.currentRisk.score})`));
-  }
-
-  if (documented.length > 0) {
-    lines.push(`\n**Documented** (${documented.length}): Awareness only`);
-  }
-
-  lines.push(`\n---\n`);
-  lines.push(`**Next Steps**:`);
-  if (decision === 'FAIL') {
-    lines.push(`- Resolve blockers or request formal waiver`);
-  } else if (decision === 'CONCERNS') {
-    lines.push(`- Implement mitigations for high-risk scenarios (score 6-8)`);
-    lines.push(`- Re-run gate after mitigations`);
-  } else {
-    lines.push(`- Proceed with release`);
-  }
-
-  return lines.join('\n');
-}
-```
-
-**Key Points**:
-
-- Gate decision driven by risk scores (not gut feeling)
-- Automatic FAIL for score=9 (blockers)
-- CONCERNS for score 6-8 (requires mitigation)
-- PASS only when no blockers/concerns
-- Actionable summary with next steps
-- Integration with trace workflow (Phase 2)
-
----
-
-## Probability-Impact Threshold Summary
-
-| Score | Action   | Gate Impact          | Typical Use Case                       |
-| ----- | -------- | -------------------- | -------------------------------------- |
-| 1-3   | DOCUMENT | None                 | Cosmetic issues, low-priority bugs     |
-| 4-5   | MONITOR  | None (watch closely) | Edge cases, partial unknowns           |
-| 6-8   | MITIGATE | CONCERNS at gate     | High-impact scenarios needing coverage |
-| 9     | BLOCK    | Automatic FAIL       | Critical blockers, must resolve        |
-
-## Risk Assessment Checklist
-
-Before deploying risk matrix:
-
-- [ ] **Probability scale defined**: 1 (unlikely), 2 (possible), 3 (likely) with clear examples
-- [ ] **Impact scale defined**: 1 (minor), 2 (degraded), 3 (critical) with concrete criteria
-- [ ] **Threshold rules documented**: Score → Action mapping (1-3 = DOCUMENT, 4-5 = MONITOR, 6-8 = MITIGATE, 9 = BLOCK)
-- [ ] **Gate integration**: Risk scores drive gate decisions (PASS/CONCERNS/FAIL/WAIVED)
-- [ ] **Re-assessment process**: Risks re-evaluated as project evolves (requirements change, mitigations applied)
-- [ ] **Audit trail**: Historical tracking for risk changes (who, when, why)
-- [ ] **Mitigation tracking**: Link mitigations to probability reduction (quantify impact)
-- [ ] **Reporting**: Risk matrix visualization, trend reports, gate summaries
-
-## Integration Points
-
-- **Used in workflows**: `*test-design` (initial risk assessment), `*trace` (gate decision Phase 2), `*nfr-assess` (security/performance risks)
-- **Related fragments**: `risk-governance.md` (risk scoring matrix, gate decision engine), `test-priorities-matrix.md` (P0-P3 mapping), `nfr-criteria.md` (impact assessment for NFRs)
-- **Tools**: TypeScript for type safety, markdown for reports, version control for audit trail
-
-_Source: Murat risk model summary, gate decision patterns from production systems, probability-impact matrix from risk governance practices_