autodoc-agent-kit 1.0.0

package/src/modules/product/skills/finance-based-pricing-advisor/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: finance-based-pricing-advisor
+description: Evaluate pricing changes using ARPU, conversion, churn risk, NRR, and payback. Use when deciding whether a pricing move should ship.
+intent: >-
+  Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.
+type: interactive
+best_for:
+  - "Evaluating price increases, discounts, or new packaging"
+  - "Estimating churn and conversion risk before a pricing change"
+  - "Making a go/no-go call on monetization changes"
+scenarios:
+  - "Should we raise prices 15% for new customers next quarter?"
+  - "Evaluate a new premium tier for our SaaS product"
+  - "Help me assess whether an annual discount will improve revenue"
+---
+
+
+## Purpose
+
+Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.
+
+**What this is:** Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering.
+
+**What this is NOT:** Comprehensive pricing strategy design, value-based pricing frameworks, willingness-to-pay research, competitive positioning, psychological pricing, packaging architecture, or monetization model selection. For those topics, see the future `pricing-strategy-suite` skills.
+
+This skill assumes you have a specific pricing change in mind and need to evaluate its financial viability.
+
+## Key Concepts
+
+### The Pricing Impact Framework
+
+A systematic approach to evaluate pricing changes financially:
+
+1. **Revenue Impact** — How does this change ARPU/ARPA?
+   - Direct revenue lift from price increase
+   - Revenue loss from reduced conversion or increased churn
+   - Net revenue impact
+
+2. **Conversion Impact** — How does this affect trial-to-paid or sales conversion?
+   - Higher prices may reduce conversion rate
+   - Better packaging may improve conversion
+   - Test assumptions
+
+3. **Churn Risk** — Will existing customers leave due to price change?
+   - Grandfathering strategy (protect existing customers)
+   - Churn risk by segment (SMB vs. enterprise)
+   - Churn elasticity (how sensitive are customers to price?)
+
+4. **Expansion Impact** — Does this create or block expansion opportunities?
+   - New premium tier = upsell path
+   - Usage-based pricing = expansion as customers grow
+   - Add-ons = cross-sell opportunities
+
+5. **CAC Payback Impact** — Does pricing change affect unit economics?
+   - Higher ARPU = faster payback
+   - Lower conversion = higher effective CAC
+   - Net effect on LTV:CAC ratio
+
+### Pricing Change Types
+
+**Direct monetization changes:**
+- Price increase (raise prices for all customers or new customers only)
+- New premium tier (create upsell path)
+- Paid add-on (monetize previously free feature)
+- Usage-based pricing (charge for consumption)
+
+**Discount strategies:**
+- Annual prepay discount (improve cash flow)
+- Volume discounts (larger deals)
+- Promotional pricing (temporary price reduction)
+
+**Packaging changes:**
+- Feature bundling (combine features into tiers)
+- Unbundling (separate features into add-ons)
+- Pricing metric change (seats → usage, or vice versa)
+
+### Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT)
+
+- **Not value-based pricing:** This evaluates a proposed change, not "what should we charge?"
+- **Not WTP research:** This analyzes impact, not "what will customers pay?"
+- **Not competitive positioning:** This is financial analysis, not market positioning
+- **Not packaging architecture:** This evaluates one change, not redesigning all tiers
+
+### When to Use This Framework
+
+**Use this when:**
+- You have a specific pricing change to evaluate (e.g., "Should we raise prices 20%?")
+- You need to quantify revenue, churn, and conversion trade-offs
+- You're deciding between pricing change options (test A vs. B)
+- You need to present pricing change impact to leadership or board
+
+**Don't use this when:**
+- You're designing pricing strategy from scratch (use value-based pricing frameworks)
+- You haven't validated willingness-to-pay (do customer research first)
+- You don't have baseline metrics (ARPU, churn, conversion rates)
+- Change is too small to matter (<5% price change, <10% of customers affected)
+
+---
+
+### Facilitation Source of Truth
+
+Use [`workshop-facilitation`](../workshop-facilitation/SKILL.md) as the default interaction protocol for this skill.
+
+It defines:
+- session heads-up + entry mode (Guided, Context dump, Best guess)
+- one-question turns with plain-language prompts
+- progress labels (for example, Context Qx/8 and Scoring Qx/5)
+- interruption handling and pause/resume behavior
+- numbered recommendations at decision points
+- quick-select numbered response options for regular questions (include `Other (specify)` when useful)
+
+This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's domain logic.
+
+## Application
+
+This interactive skill asks **up to 4 adaptive questions**, offering **3-5 enumerated options** at decision points.
+
+---
+
+### Step 0: Gather Context
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"Let's evaluate the financial impact of your pricing change. Please provide:
+
+**Current pricing:**
+- Current ARPU or ARPA
+- Current pricing tiers (if applicable)
+- Current monthly churn rate
+- Current trial-to-paid conversion rate (if relevant)
+
+**Proposed pricing change:**
+- What change are you considering? (price increase, new tier, add-on, etc.)
+- New pricing (if known)
+- Affected customer segment (all, new only, specific tier)
+
+**Business context:**
+- Total customers (or MRR/ARR)
+- CAC (to assess payback impact)
+- NRR (to assess expansion context)
+
+You can provide estimates if you don't have exact numbers."
+
+---
+
+### Step 1: Identify Pricing Change Type
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"What type of pricing change are you considering?
+
+1. **Price increase** — Raise prices for new customers, existing customers, or both
+2. **New premium tier** — Add higher-priced tier with additional features
+3. **Paid add-on** — Monetize a new or existing feature separately
+4. **Usage-based pricing** — Charge for consumption (seats, API calls, storage, etc.)
+5. **Discount strategy** — Annual prepay discount, volume pricing, or promotional pricing
+6. **Packaging change** — Rebundle features, change pricing metric, or tier restructure
+
+Choose a number, or describe your specific pricing change."
+
+**Based on selection, agent adapts questions:**
+
+---
+
+#### If Option 1 (Price Increase):
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"**Price increase details:**
+
+- Current price: $___
+- New price: $___
+- Increase: ___%
+
+**Who is affected?**
+1. New customers only (grandfather existing)
+2. All customers (existing + new)
+3. Specific segment (e.g., SMB only, new plan only)
+
+**When would this take effect?**
+- Immediately
+- Next billing cycle
+- Gradual rollout (test first)"
+
+---
+
+#### If Option 2 (New Premium Tier):
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"**Premium tier details:**
+
+- Current top tier price: $___
+- New premium tier price: $___
+- Key features in premium tier: [list]
+
+**Expected adoption:**
+- What % of current customers might upgrade? ___%
+- What % of new customers might choose premium? ___%
+
+**Cannibalization risk:**
+- Will premium tier cannibalize current top tier?"
+
+---
+
+#### If Option 3 (Paid Add-On):
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"**Add-on details:**
+
+- Add-on name: ___
+- Price: $___ /month or /user
+- Currently free or new feature?
+
+**Expected adoption:**
+- What % of customers would pay for this? ___%
+- Is this feature currently used (if free)?
+- Will making it paid hurt retention?"
+
+---
+
+#### If Option 4 (Usage-Based Pricing):
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"**Usage pricing details:**
+
+- Usage metric: (seats, API calls, storage, transactions, etc.)
+- Pricing: $___ per [unit]
+- Free tier or minimum? (e.g., first 1,000 API calls free)
+
+**Expected impact:**
+- Average customer usage: ___ units/month
+- Expected ARPU change: $current → $new
+
+**Expansion potential:**
+- As customers grow usage, will ARPU increase?"
+
+---
+
+#### If Option 5 (Discount Strategy):
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"**Discount details:**
+
+- Discount type: (annual prepay, volume, promotional)
+- Discount amount: ___% off
+- Duration: (ongoing, limited time)
+
+**Trade-off:**
+- Lower price vs. improved cash flow (annual prepay)
+- Lower price vs. larger deal size (volume)
+- Lower price vs. urgency (promotional)"
+
+---
+
+#### If Option 6 (Packaging Change):
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"**Packaging change details:**
+
+- What are you changing? (bundling, unbundling, pricing metric)
+- Current packaging: [describe]
+- New packaging: [describe]
+
+**Expected impact:**
+- ARPU change: $current → $new
+- Conversion change: ___% → ___%
+- Churn risk: (low, medium, high)"
+
+---
+
+### Step 2: Assess Expected Impact
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"Now let's quantify the impact. Based on your pricing change, estimate:
+
+**Revenue impact:**
+- Current ARPU: $___
+- Expected new ARPU: $___
+- ARPU lift: ___%
+
+**Conversion impact:**
+- Current conversion rate: ___%
+- Expected new conversion rate: ___%
+- Conversion change: [increase / decrease / no change]
+
+**Churn risk:**
+- Current monthly churn: ___%
+- Expected churn after change: ___%
+- Churn risk: [low / medium / high]
+
+**Expansion impact:**
+- Does this create expansion opportunities? (new tier to upgrade to, usage growth)
+- Expected NRR change: ___% → ___%
+
+You can provide estimates. We'll model scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic)."
+
+---
+
+### Step 3: Evaluate Current State
+
+**Agent asks:**
+
+"To assess whether this pricing change makes sense, I need your current baseline:
+
+**Current metrics:**
+- MRR or ARR: $___
+- Number of customers: ___
+- ARPU/ARPA: $___
+- Monthly churn rate: ___%
+- NRR: ___%
+- CAC: $___
+- LTV: $___
+
+**Growth context:**
+- Current growth rate: ___% MoM or YoY
+- Target growth rate: ___%
+
+**Competitive context:**
+- Are you priced below, at, or above market?
+- Competitive pressure: (low, medium, high)"
+
+---
+
+### Step 4: Deliver Recommendations
+
+**Agent synthesizes:**
+- Revenue impact (ARPU lift × customer base)
+- Conversion impact (new customers affected)
+- Churn impact (existing customers affected)
+- Net revenue impact
+- CAC payback impact
+- Risk assessment
+
+**Agent offers 3-4 recommendations:**
+
+---
+
+#### Recommendation Pattern 1: Implement Broadly
+
+**When:**
+- Net revenue impact clearly positive (>10% ARPU lift, <5% churn risk)
+- Minimal conversion impact
+- Strong value justification
+
+**Recommendation:**
+
+"**Implement this pricing change** — Strong financial case
+
+**Revenue Impact:**
+- Current MRR: $___
+- ARPU lift: ___% ($current → $new)
+- Expected MRR increase: +$___/month (+___%)
+
+**Churn Risk: Low**
+- Expected churn increase: ___% → ___% (+___% points)
+- Churn-driven MRR loss: -$___/month
+- **Net MRR impact: +$___/month** ✅
+
+**Conversion Impact:**
+- Current conversion: ___%
+- Expected conversion: ___% (___% change)
+- Impact on new customer acquisition: [minimal / manageable]
+
+**CAC Payback Impact:**
+- Current payback: ___ months
+- New payback: ___ months (faster due to higher ARPU)
+
+**Why this works:**
+[Specific reasoning based on numbers]
+
+**How to implement:**
+1. **Grandfather existing customers** (if raising prices)
+   - Protect current base from churn
+   - New pricing for new customers only
+2. **Communicate value**
+   - Emphasize features, outcomes, ROI
+   - Justify price with value delivered
+3. **Monitor metrics (first 30-60 days)**
+   - Conversion rate (should stay within ___%)
+   - Churn rate (should stay <___%)
+   - Customer feedback
+
+**Expected timeline:**
+- Month 1: +$___ MRR from new customers
+- Month 3: +$___ MRR (cumulative)
+- Month 6: +$___ MRR
+- Year 1: +$___ ARR
+
+**Success criteria:**
+- Conversion rate stays >___%
+- Churn rate stays <___%
+- NRR improves to >___%"
+
+---
+
+#### Recommendation Pattern 2: Test First (A/B Test)
+
+**When:**
+- Uncertain impact (wide range between conservative and optimistic)
+- Moderate churn or conversion risk
+- Large customer base (can test with subset)
+
+**Recommendation:**
+
+"**Test with a segment before broad rollout** — Impact is uncertain
+
+**Why test:**
+- ARPU lift estimate: ___% (wide confidence interval)
+- Churn risk: Medium (___% → ___%)
+- Conversion impact: Uncertain (___% → ___% estimated)
+
+**Test design:**
+
+**Cohort A (Control):**
+- Current pricing: $___
+- Size: ___% of new customers (or ___ customers)
+
+**Cohort B (Test):**
+- New pricing: $___
+- Size: ___% of new customers (or ___ customers)
+
+**Duration:** 60-90 days (need statistical significance)
+
+**Metrics to track:**
+- Conversion rate (A vs. B)
+- ARPU (A vs. B)
+- 30-day retention (A vs. B)
+- 90-day churn (A vs. B)
+- NRR (A vs. B)
+
+**Decision criteria:**
+
+**Roll out broadly if:**
+- Conversion rate (B) >___% of control (A)
+- Churn rate (B) <___% higher than control
+- Net revenue (B) >___% higher than control
+
+**Don't roll out if:**
+- Conversion drops >___%
+- Churn increases >___%
+- Net revenue impact negative
+
+**Expected timeline:**
+- Week 1-2: Launch test
+- Week 8-12: Enough data for statistical significance
+- Month 3: Decision to roll out or kill
+
+**Risk:** Medium. Test mitigates risk before broad rollout."
+
+---
+
+#### Recommendation Pattern 3: Modify Approach
+
+**When:**
+- Original proposal has significant risk
+- Better alternative exists
+- Need to adjust pricing change to improve outcomes
+
+**Recommendation:**
+
+"**Modify your approach** — Original proposal has risks
+
+**Original Proposal:**
+- [Price increase / New tier / Add-on / etc.]
+- Expected ARPU lift: ___%
+- Churn risk: High (___% → ___%)
+- Net revenue impact: Uncertain or negative
+
+**Problem:**
+[Specific issue: e.g., "20% price increase will likely cause 10% churn, wiping out revenue gains"]
+
+**Alternative Approach:**
+
+**Option 1: Smaller price increase**
+- Instead of ___% increase, try ___%
+- Lower churn risk (___% vs. ___%)
+- Still positive net revenue: +$___/month
+
+**Option 2: Grandfather existing, raise for new only**
+- Protect current base (zero churn risk)
+- Higher prices for new customers only
+- Gradual ARPU improvement over time
+
+**Option 3: Value-based pricing (charge more for high-value segments)**
+- Keep SMB pricing flat
+- Raise enterprise pricing ___%
+- Lower churn risk (enterprise is stickier)
+
+**Recommended:**
+[Specific option with reasoning]
+
+**Why this is better:**
+- Lower churn risk
+- Comparable revenue upside
+- Easier to communicate
+
+**How to implement:**
+[Specific steps for alternative approach]"
+
+---
+
+#### Recommendation Pattern 4: Don't Change Pricing
+
+**When:**
+- Net revenue impact negative or marginal
+- High churn risk without offsetting gains
+- Competitive or strategic reasons to hold pricing
+
+**Recommendation:**
+
+"**Don't change pricing** — Risks outweigh benefits
+
+**Why:**
+- Expected revenue lift: +$___/month (___%)
+- Expected churn impact: -$___/month (___%)
+- **Net revenue impact: -$___/month** 🚨 or marginal
+
+**Problem:**
+[Specific issue: e.g., "Churn-driven revenue loss exceeds price increase gains"]
+
+**What would need to change:**
+
+**For price increase to work:**
+- Churn rate must stay below ___% (currently ___%)
+- OR conversion rate must stay above ___% (currently ___%)
+- OR you need to reduce CAC to offset lower conversion
+
+**Alternative strategies:**
+
+**Instead of raising prices:**
+1. **Improve retention** — Reduce churn from ___% to ___% (same revenue impact as price increase, lower risk)
+2. **Expand within base** — Increase NRR from ___% to ___% via upsells
+3. **Reduce CAC** — More efficient acquisition (better than pricing)
+
+**When to revisit pricing:**
+- After improving retention (churn <___%)
+- After validating willingness-to-pay (WTP research)
+- After competitive landscape changes
+
+**Decision:** Hold pricing for now, focus on [retention / expansion / acquisition efficiency]."
+
+---
+
+### Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis (Optional)
+
+**Agent offers:**
+
+"Want to see what-if scenarios?
+
+1. **Optimistic case** — Higher ARPU lift, lower churn
+2. **Pessimistic case** — Lower ARPU lift, higher churn
+3. **Breakeven analysis** — What churn rate makes this neutral?
+
+Or ask any follow-up questions."
+
+**Agent can provide:**
+- Scenario modeling (optimistic/pessimistic/breakeven)
+- Sensitivity tables (if churn is X%, revenue impact is Y)
+- Comparison to alternative pricing strategies
+
+---
+
+## Examples
+
+See `examples/` folder for sample conversation flows. Mini examples below:
+
+### Example 1: Price Increase (Good Case)
+
+**Scenario:** 20% price increase for new customers only
+
+**Current state:**
+- ARPU: $100/month
+- Customers: 1,000
+- MRR: $100K
+- Churn: 3%/month
+- New customers/month: 50
+
+**Proposed change:**
+- New customer pricing: $120/month (+20%)
+- Existing customers: Grandfathered at $100
+
+**Impact:**
+- New customer ARPU: $120 (+20%)
+- Churn risk: Low (existing protected)
+- Conversion impact: Minimal (<5% drop estimated)
+
+**Recommendation:** Implement. Net revenue impact +$12K/year with low risk.
+
+---
+
+### Example 2: Price Increase (Risky)
+
+**Scenario:** 30% price increase for all customers
+
+**Current state:**
+- ARPU: $50/month
+- Customers: 5,000
+- MRR: $250K
+- Churn: 5%/month (already high)
+
+**Proposed change:**
+- All customers: $65/month (+30%)
+
+**Impact:**
+- ARPU lift: +30% = +$75K MRR
+- Churn risk: High (5% → 8% estimated)
+- Churn-driven loss: 3% × 5,000 × $65 = -$9.75K MRR/month
+
+**Net impact:** +$75K - $9.75K = +$65K MRR (but accelerating churn problem)
+
+**Recommendation:** Don't change. Fix retention first (reduce 5% churn), then raise prices.
+
+---
+
+### Example 3: New Premium Tier
+
+**Scenario:** Add $500/month premium tier
+
+**Current state:**
+- Top tier: $200/month (500 customers)
+- ARPA: $200
+
+**Proposed change:**
+- New tier: $500/month with advanced features
+- Expected adoption: 10% of current top tier (50 customers)
+
+**Impact:**
+- Upsell revenue: 50 × ($500 - $200) = +$15K MRR
+- Cannibalization risk: Low (features justify premium)
+- NRR impact: Increases from 105% to 110%
+
+**Recommendation:** Implement. Creates expansion path, minimal cannibalization risk.
+
+---
+
+## Common Pitfalls
+
+### Pitfall 1: Ignoring Churn Impact
+**Symptom:** "We'll raise prices 30% and make $X more!" (no churn modeling)
+
+**Consequence:** Churn wipes out revenue gains. Net impact negative.
+
+**Fix:** Model churn scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic). Factor churn-driven revenue loss into net impact.
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 2: Not Grandfathering Existing Customers
+**Symptom:** "We're raising prices for everyone effective immediately"
+
+**Consequence:** Massive churn spike from existing customers who feel betrayed.
+
+**Fix:** Grandfather existing customers. Raise prices for new customers only.
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 3: Testing Without Statistical Power
+**Symptom:** "We tested on 10 customers and it worked!"
+
+**Consequence:** 10 customers isn't statistically significant. Results are noise.
+
+**Fix:** Test with large enough sample (100+ customers per cohort) for 60-90 days.
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 4: Pricing Changes Without Value Justification
+**Symptom:** "We're raising prices because we need more revenue"
+
+**Consequence:** Customers see price increase without corresponding value increase. Churn.
+
+**Fix:** Tie price increases to value improvements (new features, better support, outcomes delivered).
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 5: Ignoring CAC Payback Impact
+**Symptom:** "Higher ARPU is always better!"
+
+**Consequence:** If conversion drops 30%, effective CAC increases dramatically. Payback period explodes.
+
+**Fix:** Calculate CAC payback impact. Higher ARPU with lower conversion might make payback worse, not better.
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 6: Annual Discounts That Hurt Margin
+**Symptom:** "30% discount for annual prepay!" (improves cash but destroys LTV)
+
+**Consequence:** Customers lock in low prices for a year. Revenue per customer decreases.
+
+**Fix:** Limit annual discounts to 10-15%. Balance cash flow improvement with LTV protection.
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 7: Copycat Pricing (Competitor-Based)
+**Symptom:** "Competitor raised prices, so should we"
+
+**Consequence:** Your customers, value prop, and cost structure are different. What works for them may not work for you.
+
+**Fix:** Use competitors as data points, not decisions. Make pricing decisions based on your unit economics.
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 8: Premature Optimization
+**Symptom:** "Let's A/B test 47 different price points!"
+
+**Consequence:** Analysis paralysis. Spending months on 5% pricing optimizations while missing 50% growth opportunities elsewhere.
+
+**Fix:** Big pricing changes (tiers, packaging, add-ons) matter more than micro-optimizations. Start there.
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 9: Forgetting Expansion Revenue
+**Symptom:** "We're maximizing ARPU at acquisition"
+
+**Consequence:** High upfront pricing prevents landing customers. Miss expansion opportunities.
+
+**Fix:** Consider "land and expand" strategy. Lower entry price, higher expansion revenue via upsells.
+
+---
+
+### Pitfall 10: No Pricing Change Communication Plan
+**Symptom:** "We're raising prices next month" (no customer communication)
+
+**Consequence:** Surprised customers churn. Poor reviews. Reputation damage.
+
+**Fix:** Communicate pricing changes 30-60 days in advance. Emphasize value, not just price.
+
+---
+
+## References
+
+### Related Skills
+- `saas-revenue-growth-metrics` — ARPU, ARPA, churn, NRR metrics used in pricing analysis
+- `saas-economics-efficiency-metrics` — CAC payback impact of pricing changes
+- `finance-metrics-quickref` — Quick lookup for pricing-related formulas
+- `feature-investment-advisor` — Evaluates whether to build features that enable pricing changes
+- `business-health-diagnostic` — Broader business context for pricing decisions
+
+### External Frameworks (Comprehensive Pricing Strategy)
+These are OUTSIDE the scope of this skill but relevant for broader pricing work:
+
+- **Value-Based Pricing** — Price based on value delivered, not cost
+- **Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity** — WTP research methodology
+- **Conjoint Analysis** — Feature-to-price trade-off research
+- **Good-Better-Best Packaging** — Tier architecture design
+- **Price Anchoring & Decoy Pricing** — Psychological pricing tactics
+- **Patrick Campbell (ProfitWell):** Pricing research and benchmarks
+
+### Future Skills (Comprehensive Pricing)
+For topics NOT covered here, see future `pricing-strategy-suite`:
+- `value-based-pricing-framework` — How to price based on value
+- `willingness-to-pay-research` — WTP research methods
+- `packaging-architecture-advisor` — Tier and bundle design
+- `pricing-psychology-guide` — Anchoring, decoys, framing
+- `monetization-model-advisor` — Seat-based vs. usage vs. outcome pricing
+
+### Provenance
+- Adapted from `research/finance/Finance_For_PMs.Putting_It_Together_Synthesis.md` (Decision Framework #3)
+- Pricing scenarios from `research/finance/Finance for Product Managers.md`