autodoc-agent-kit 1.0.0

package/src/modules/product/skills/acquisition-channel-advisor/examples/conversation-flow.md

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+# Example: Channel Evaluation Conversation Flow
+
+This shows a full conversation using the acquisition-channel-advisor skill.
+
+---
+
+## Scenario: Evaluating Content Marketing Channel
+
+### Step 0: Initial Request
+
+**User:**
+"Should we scale our content marketing spend? We've been investing in SEO and blog content for 6 months."
+
+---
+
+### Step 0: Context Gathering
+
+**Agent:**
+"Let's evaluate your content marketing channel. Please provide:
+
+**Channel details:**
+- Channel name: Organic content (blog, SEO)
+- How long: 6 months
+- Current monthly spend: $___
+
+**Customer acquisition:**
+- Customers acquired per month (from this channel): ___
+- CAC for this channel: $___ (if known)
+
+**Business context:**
+- Blended CAC (all channels): $___
+- Blended LTV: $___
+- Current MRR/ARR: $___
+- Target growth rate: ___% MoM or YoY
+
+You can provide estimates if you don't have exact numbers."
+
+---
+
+**User:**
+"Here's our data:
+
+**Channel:**
+- Organic content (blog + SEO)
+- 6 months running
+- Monthly spend: $15K (2 content writers + SEO contractor)
+
+**Acquisition:**
+- ~75 customers/month from organic
+- CAC: ~$200/customer
+
+**Business context:**
+- Blended CAC: $600 (across paid, outbound, organic)
+- Blended LTV: $3,000 (24-month avg lifetime, $125 ARPU, 75% margin)
+- Current ARR: $1.8M
+- Target: 10% MoM growth ($15K MRR growth/month)"
+
+---
+
+### Step 1: Unit Economics
+
+**Agent calculates:**
+```
+Channel CAC: $200
+Blended CAC: $600
+Channel is 3x more efficient than blended! ✅
+
+Channel LTV: Need to confirm if similar to blended
+Blended LTV: $3,000
+```
+
+**Agent:**
+"Great! Your content channel has CAC of $200 vs. blended $600—that's 3x more efficient.
+
+**Now let's confirm customer quality:**
+
+**Do customers from organic content have similar LTV to other channels?**
+
+1. **Similar** — They stick around ~24 months like blended average
+2. **Higher** — They churn less or expand more (longer lifetime or higher ARPU)
+3. **Lower** — They churn faster or are smaller deals
+4. **Unknown** — We need to analyze cohort retention data
+
+Choose a number."
+
+---
+
+**User:**
+"2 — Higher. Content customers tend to be better educated about our product and have lower churn. I'd estimate 30-month avg lifetime instead of 24-month."
+
+---
+
+**Agent calculates:**
+```
+Channel LTV (adjusted):
+- ARPU: $125/month
+- Lifetime: 30 months (vs. 24 blended)
+- Gross margin: 75%
+- Channel LTV = $125 × 30 × 75% = $2,812
+
+Wait, that's lower than $3,000 blended?
+Let me recalculate using the LTV formula...
+
+Actually, if lifetime is 30 months:
+LTV = $125 × 30 = $3,750 gross revenue
+LTV = $3,750 × 75% margin = $2,812 net LTV
+
+Hmm, but blended LTV was $3,000. Let me ask for clarification.
+```
+
+**Agent:**
+"Let me confirm: If content customers have 30-month lifetime vs. 24-month blended, and same $125 ARPU:
+
+- Channel LTV = $125 × 30 × 75% = $2,812
+
+But you said blended LTV is $3,000. Does blended include expansion (upsells/cross-sells) that content customers might not have as much of?"
+
+---
+
+**User:**
+"Oh right, good catch. Blended LTV includes expansion. Content customers actually stick around longer (30mo vs. 24mo) BUT they expand less. So their total LTV is about $3,200—slightly higher than $3,000 blended."
+
+---
+
+**Agent calculates:**
+```
+Channel CAC: $200
+Channel LTV: $3,200
+LTV:CAC = $3,200 / $200 = 16:1 ✅✅✅ (exceptional!)
+
+Payback Period:
+Monthly ARPU: $125
+Gross Margin: 75%
+Monthly Gross Profit: $125 × 75% = $93.75
+
+Payback = $200 / $93.75 = 2.1 months ✅✅✅ (extremely fast!)
+```
+
+**Agent:**
+"Excellent! Here are your unit economics for organic content:
+
+**Unit Economics:**
+- CAC: $200
+- LTV: $3,200
+- **LTV:CAC: 16:1** ✅✅✅ (exceptional—well above 3:1 threshold)
+- **Payback: 2.1 months** ✅✅✅ (extremely fast—well under 12-month target)
+
+This channel has outstanding unit economics. Let's check customer quality next."
+
+---
+
+### Step 2: Customer Quality
+
+**Agent:**
+"You mentioned content customers stick around longer (30mo vs. 24mo). Let's confirm quality metrics:
+
+**1. What's the churn rate for customers from organic content?**
+
+1. **Lower than blended** — They stick around longer (you mentioned 30mo vs. 24mo, so this is likely)
+2. **Same as blended** — No difference
+3. **Higher than blended** — They churn faster
+4. **Unknown** — Need cohort analysis
+
+**2. What's the NRR for customers from this channel?**
+
+1. **Higher than blended** — They expand more
+2. **Same as blended** — No difference
+3. **Lower than blended** — They expand less (you mentioned this earlier)
+4. **Unknown**
+
+**3. What's the customer profile?**
+
+1. **Ideal customer profile (ICP)** — Perfect fit
+2. **Close to ICP** — Mostly good fit
+3. **Off ICP** — Many poor-fit customers
+4. **Unknown**"
+
+---
+
+**User:**
+"1. Lower churn—monthly churn is ~2% vs. blended 2.8%
+2. Lower NRR—about 95% vs. blended 105% (they don't expand as much)
+3. Close to ICP—mostly mid-market companies, which is our sweet spot"
+
+---
+
+**Agent analyzes:**
+```
+Customer Quality Assessment:
+
+Retention: Lower churn (2% vs. 2.8%) ✅
+- 30-month lifetime vs. 24-month blended
+- They stick around longer = higher quality
+
+NRR: Lower (95% vs. 105%) ⚠️
+- Less expansion/upsell
+- But still >90% (acceptable)
+- Offset by better retention
+
+ICP Fit: Close to ICP ✅
+- Mid-market is sweet spot
+- Good product-channel fit
+
+Overall: High Quality ✅
+```
+
+**Agent:**
+"**Customer Quality: High** ✅
+
+**Retention:** Lower churn (2% vs. 2.8%) — content customers stick around 25% longer
+**Expansion:** Lower NRR (95% vs. 105%) — less upsell, but acceptable
+**ICP Fit:** Close to ICP (mid-market focus)
+
+**Assessment:** High-quality customers. Better retention offsets lower expansion. Overall LTV is higher.
+
+Now let's evaluate scalability."
+
+---
+
+### Step 3: Scalability
+
+**Agent:**
+"Can you scale this channel to meet your growth targets?
+
+**1. What's the S&M efficiency (Magic Number) for this channel?**
+
+Let me calculate:
+- New MRR from channel per month: 75 customers × $125 ARPU = $9,375
+- Channel S&M spend: $15,000/month
+- Magic Number = ($9,375 × 4) / $15,000 = $37,500 / $15,000 = 2.5 ✅✅
+
+That's exceptional (>0.75 is efficient).
+
+**2. What's the addressable volume for this channel?**
+
+1. **Large** — Can scale 10x+ (lots of keyword opportunities, TAM is huge)
+2. **Medium** — Can scale 2-5x (some saturation risk)
+3. **Small** — Near saturation, maybe 1.5x
+4. **Unknown**
+
+**3. What's the CAC trend?**
+
+1. **Decreasing** — Getting more efficient (content compounds over time)
+2. **Stable** — Consistent CAC around $200
+3. **Increasing** — Diminishing returns
+4. **Unknown**"
+
+---
+
+**User:**
+"Addressable volume: 1 — Large. We've barely scratched the surface on keyword opportunities. SEO takes time but TAM is massive.
+
+CAC trend: 1 — Decreasing. CAC was $300 in month 3, now $200 in month 6. Content compounds—old articles still drive traffic."
+
+---
+
+**Agent calculates:**
+```
+Scalability Assessment:
+
+Magic Number: 2.5 ✅✅✅
+- Well above 0.75 threshold
+- For every $1 in content spend, $2.50 in new ARR
+- Extremely efficient
+
+Addressable Volume: Large ✅
+- Keyword opportunities abundant
+- TAM supports 10x+ scale
+
+CAC Trend: Decreasing ✅✅
+- $300 → $200 (33% improvement in 3 months)
+- Content compounds (old posts keep working)
+- Efficiency improving over time
+
+Overall: Highly Scalable ✅✅✅
+```
+
+**Agent:**
+"**Scalability: Highly Scalable** ✅✅✅
+
+**Magic Number:** 2.5 (exceptional—way above 0.75 threshold)
+**Addressable Volume:** Large (10x+ potential)
+**CAC Trend:** Decreasing ($300 → $200 in 3 months)
+
+**Key insight:** Content compounds. Old articles continue driving traffic without additional spend. CAC will likely keep decreasing as you scale.
+
+Let me check your growth targets..."
+
+---
+
+**Agent calculates:**
+```
+Target Growth: 10% MoM
+Current MRR: $150K ($1.8M ARR / 12)
+Target MRR Growth: $15K/month
+
+Current contribution from content:
+75 customers × $125 ARPU = $9,375 MRR/month
+
+Gap: $15,000 - $9,375 = $5,625 MRR needed from other channels
+
+Content covers 62.5% of growth target!
+```
+
+**Agent:**
+"**Growth Target Analysis:**
+
+You need $15K MRR growth/month (10% of $150K MRR).
+Content currently delivers $9.4K MRR/month.
+**Content covers 62.5% of your growth target!**
+
+Other channels need to deliver $5.6K MRR/month.
+
+Ready for my recommendation?"
+
+---
+
+**User:**
+"Yes! Should we scale content?"
+
+---
+
+### Step 4: Recommendation
+
+**Agent:**
+"## ✅ Recommendation: **Scale Content Aggressively**
+
+---
+
+### Why This Is a No-Brainer
+
+**Unit Economics: Exceptional**
+- LTV:CAC: 16:1 (5x better than 3:1 threshold)
+- Payback: 2.1 months (6x faster than 12-month target)
+- CAC: $200 (3x better than $600 blended)
+
+**Customer Quality: High**
+- Lower churn: 2% vs. 2.8% blended
+- 30-month lifetime vs. 24-month blended
+- Close to ICP (mid-market sweet spot)
+
+**Scalability: Highly Scalable**
+- Magic Number: 2.5 (exceptional S&M efficiency)
+- Addressable volume: Large (10x+ potential)
+- CAC decreasing: $300 → $200 (content compounds)
+
+**Strategic Fit:**
+- Covers 62.5% of growth target already
+- Capital-efficient (low CAC, fast payback)
+- Defensible (SEO moats build over time)
+
+---
+
+### How to Scale
+
+**Phase 1: Double Spend (Month 1-3)**
+- Current: $15K/month
+- Target: $30K/month
+- Hire 2 more content writers + expand SEO effort
+
+**Expected Impact:**
+- Customers/month: 75 → 150 (if linear scaling)
+- MRR impact: $9.4K → $18.8K/month
+- CAC: $200 → potentially $180 (economies of scale)
+
+**Covers 125% of growth target! You'd overshoot by $3.8K MRR/month.**
+
+---
+
+**Phase 2: Triple Spend (Month 4-6)**
+- Current: $15K/month
+- Target: $45K/month
+- Add video content, expand to new verticals
+
+**Expected Impact:**
+- Customers/month: 75 → 225
+- MRR impact: $28K/month
+- Covers 187% of growth target
+
+---
+
+### What to Monitor Weekly
+
+**Must-track metrics:**
+1. **CAC by month** — Should stay <$250
+   - If CAC increases >20%, slow down scaling
+2. **Magic Number** — Should stay >1.5
+   - If drops <1.0, optimize before scaling further
+3. **Customer quality** — Churn rate, NRR, ICP fit
+   - Make sure quality doesn't degrade with scale
+4. **Content ROI** — Track which topics/keywords drive best customers
+
+**Warning signs to watch:**
+- CAC increasing >20% month-over-month
+- Magic Number dropping <1.0
+- Churn rate for new content customers >3%
+- Quality degradation (more off-ICP customers)
+
+---
+
+### Recommended Scaling Plan
+
+| Month | Monthly Spend | New Customers | MRR Impact | CAC Target | Magic Number Target |
+|-------|---------------|---------------|------------|------------|---------------------|
+| Current | $15K | 75 | $9.4K | $200 | 2.5 |
+| Month 1 | $20K | 100 | $12.5K | $200 | 2.5 |
+| Month 2 | $25K | 125 | $15.6K | $200 | 2.5 |
+| Month 3 | $30K | 150 | $18.8K | $200 | 2.5 |
+
+**Gradual scaling minimizes risk while testing assumptions.**
+
+---
+
+### Budget Reallocation (Optional)
+
+If you scale content 2x and it's working, consider:
+
+**Reallocate from underperforming channels:**
+- Example: If you have a channel with LTV:CAC <2:1
+- Move that budget to content (LTV:CAC 16:1)
+
+**Impact:**
+- Reallocating $10K from a 1.5:1 channel to content (16:1)
+- Frees up $10K → invest in content = ~50 more customers/month
+- MRR impact: +$6.25K/month
+
+---
+
+### Risk Assessment
+
+**Risk Level: Very Low** ✅
+
+**Why:**
+- Proven channel (6 months data, 450+ customers)
+- Improving efficiency (CAC decreasing)
+- Fast payback (2.1 months) = low cash risk
+- High-quality customers (lower churn)
+
+**Biggest risk:**
+- Scaling too fast and diluting quality (hiring bad writers)
+- Solution: Scale gradually (25-50% increase/month), not 100%
+
+---
+
+### Timeline & Milestones
+
+**Month 1:**
+- Increase spend $15K → $20K
+- Hire 1 additional content writer
+- Target: 100 customers, $12.5K MRR
+
+**Month 2:**
+- If Month 1 hits target: increase to $25K
+- Expand SEO to new keywords
+- Target: 125 customers, $15.6K MRR
+
+**Month 3:**
+- If Month 2 hits target: increase to $30K
+- Test video content (blog posts → YouTube)
+- Target: 150 customers, $18.8K MRR
+
+**Month 6:**
+- Re-evaluate: Are we still at 16:1 LTV:CAC?
+- If yes: continue scaling to $50K/month
+- If no: optimize before further scaling
+
+---
+
+### Comparison to Other Channels
+
+Just for context, how does content compare to your other channels?
+
+| Channel | CAC | LTV:CAC | Payback | Magic Number | Recommendation |
+|---------|-----|---------|---------|--------------|----------------|
+| **Content (Organic)** | **$200** | **16:1** | **2.1mo** | **2.5** | **Scale 2-3x** ✅ |
+| Blended (All Channels) | $600 | 5:1 | 6.4mo | ? | Improve mix |
+| [Other Channels?] | ? | ? | ? | ? | [Need data] |
+
+**Content is your most efficient channel by far.**
+
+If you have data on other channels (Google Ads, outbound, etc.), I can compare them and recommend budget reallocation.
+
+---
+
+## Summary
+
+**Decision: Scale content spend from $15K → $30K/month over 3 months**
+
+**Expected Outcome:**
+- Customers/month: 75 → 150
+- MRR impact: +$9.4K/month additional growth
+- Total MRR from content: $18.8K/month
+- **Covers 125% of your 10% MoM growth target**
+
+**Why it works:**
+- Best channel economics (16:1 LTV:CAC)
+- Fastest payback (2.1 months)
+- Content compounds (old posts keep working)
+- High-quality, long-lived customers
+
+**Risk: Very Low**
+
+**Next step:** Approve budget increase and hire 1-2 content writers.
+
+---
+
+Want to discuss:
+1. Budget reallocation from other channels?
+2. Content strategy (topics, keywords, formats)?
+3. How to compare this to other acquisition channels?"
+
+---
+
+**User:**
+"This is perfect. One question: Should we also compare this to our Google Ads channel?"
+
+**Agent:**
+"Absolutely! Share your Google Ads metrics and I'll run a side-by-side comparison:
+
+- Monthly spend
+- Customers acquired/month
+- CAC
+- LTV (or similar to blended?)
+- Churn/NRR (if different from blended)
+- Magic Number (if known)
+
+Then I'll recommend optimal budget allocation between content and Google Ads."
+
+---
+
+[Conversation could continue with multi-channel optimization...]