alphacouncil-agent 0.9.2 → 1.0.0

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_taleb/decision_policy.json

@@ -2,7 +2,39 @@
   "abstention_policy": "fail_closed",
   "dsl_version": "1.1",
   "eligibility": {
-    "all": []
+    "all": [
+      {
+        "condition": {
+          "conditions": [
+            {
+              "op": "exists",
+              "value": {
+                "fact_id": "valuation.downside_floor"
+              }
+            },
+            {
+              "op": "exists",
+              "value": {
+                "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
+              }
+            }
+          ],
+          "op": "all"
+        },
+        "condition_id": "master_taleb.downside_is_boundable",
+        "on_false": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
+        },
+        "on_uncomputable": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
+        },
+        "source_ids": [
+          "proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"
+        ]
+      }
+    ]
   },
   "fact_gate": {
     "on_missing_critical": {
@@ -10,21 +42,100 @@
       "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
     }
   },
-  "hard_vetoes": [],
+  "hard_vetoes": [
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "left": {
+          "output_id": "risk.debt_service_cushion.master_taleb"
+        },
+        "op": "lte",
+        "right": {
+          "literal": 0
+        }
+      },
+      "on_trigger": {
+        "common_stance": "opposed",
+        "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
+      },
+      "on_uncomputable": {
+        "action": "abstain",
+        "decision": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
+        }
+      },
+      "source_ids": [
+        "proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"
+      ],
+      "veto_id": "master_taleb.absorbing_barrier"
+    },
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "left": {
+          "fact_id": "valuation.downside_floor"
+        },
+        "op": "lte",
+        "right": {
+          "literal": 0
+        }
+      },
+      "on_trigger": {
+        "common_stance": "opposed",
+        "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
+      },
+      "on_uncomputable": {
+        "action": "abstain",
+        "decision": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
+        }
+      },
+      "source_ids": [
+        "proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"
+      ],
+      "veto_id": "master_taleb.unbounded_downside"
+    },
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "left": {
+          "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
+        },
+        "op": "gt",
+        "right": {
+          "literal": 1
+        }
+      },
+      "on_trigger": {
+        "common_stance": "opposed",
+        "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
+      },
+      "on_uncomputable": {
+        "action": "abstain",
+        "decision": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_no_trade"
+        }
+      },
+      "source_ids": [
+        "proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"
+      ],
+      "veto_id": "master_taleb.leverage_is_the_fragility"
+    }
+  ],
   "native_decision_schema": "convexity_ruin_v1",
   "native_output_fields": [
     {
       "field": "metric_1",
       "on_missing": "fail",
       "value": {
-        "output_id": "risk.ruin_possible"
+        "output_id": "risk.debt_service_cushion.master_taleb"
       }
     },
     {
       "field": "metric_2",
       "on_missing": "fail",
       "value": {
-        "output_id": "options.realized_volatility"
+        "output_id": "options.normalised_skew.master_taleb"
       }
     }
   ],
@@ -52,7 +163,7 @@
     },
     {
       "decision": {
-        "common_stance": "cautious",
+        "common_stance": "constructive",
         "native_state": "provisional_convex_opportunity"
       },
       "min_ratio": 1
@@ -69,16 +180,16 @@
       {
         "condition": {
           "left": {
-            "output_id": "risk.ruin_possible"
+            "output_id": "risk.debt_service_cushion.master_taleb"
           },
-          "op": "gt",
+          "op": "gte",
           "right": {
-            "literal": 0
+            "literal": 2
           }
         },
         "coverage_weight": 1,
         "points": 1,
-        "rule_id": "proxy_score_1",
+        "rule_id": "taleb_survives_its_own_fixed_charges",
         "source_ids": [
           "proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"
         ]
@@ -86,16 +197,16 @@
       {
         "condition": {
           "left": {
-            "output_id": "options.realized_volatility"
+            "output_id": "options.normalised_skew.master_taleb"
           },
-          "op": "gt",
+          "op": "lte",
           "right": {
-            "literal": 0
+            "literal": 0.05
           }
         },
         "coverage_weight": 1,
         "points": 1,
-        "rule_id": "proxy_score_2",
+        "rule_id": "taleb_tail_not_already_bid",
         "source_ids": [
           "proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"
         ]

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_taleb/doctrine.jsonl

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject ruin and hidden concavity first, then evaluate whether a payoff is robust or positively convex after liquidity, tail pricing and execution friction.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_1","source_ids":["proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"]}
-{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Stress payoff convexity and absorbing barriers under extreme but explicit states.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"]}
-{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Compare realized tails with the surface after bid-ask and event coverage.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Distance from the absorbing barrier, in turns of operating earnings. Coverage of one is not a safety line but the failure itself, so what matters is how far the business stands from it; a coverage level on its own does not say that.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"What the market currently charges for the downside tail, as a fraction of the volatility level it is charged against. Four volatility points of skew are a different price on a twelve-volatility name than on an eighty-volatility one, which is why the tail's price is the ratio and not the difference.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"]}
 {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject any return thesis with an unresolved absorbing loss state.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_4","source_ids":["proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"]}
 {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject hidden concavity whose tail loss is not strictly bounded.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_5","source_ids":["proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"]}
 {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject an options edge that does not survive executable round-trip costs.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_6","source_ids":["proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"]}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_taleb/manifest.json

@@ -16,15 +16,18 @@
     ],
     "native_decision_schema": "convexity_ruin_v1",
     "optional_fact_types": [
+      "valuation.downside_floor",
+      "financial.leverage",
+      "risk.ruin_possible",
       "risk.hidden_leverage",
       "payoff.convexity",
       "options.realized_volatility",
-      "options.skew_25d",
       "execution.round_trip_cost",
       "event.expiry_coverage"
     ],
     "required_fact_types": [
-      "risk.ruin_possible",
+      "financial.interest_coverage",
+      "options.skew_25d",
       "options.implied_volatility"
     ]
   },
@@ -46,8 +49,8 @@
   "computation": {
     "dsl_version": "1.1",
     "pipeline": [
-      "master_taleb.payoff_ruin",
-      "master_taleb.tail_friction"
+      "master_taleb.debt_service_cushion",
+      "master_taleb.normalised_skew"
     ]
   },
   "decision": {
@@ -55,7 +58,8 @@
     "common_projection": "common_stance_v1",
     "confidence_calibrator": null,
     "eligibility": [
-      "risk.ruin_possible",
+      "financial.interest_coverage",
+      "options.skew_25d",
       "options.implied_volatility"
     ],
     "hard_vetoes": [
@@ -79,11 +83,15 @@
     "maturity": "operator_lens",
     "operator_label": {
       "en": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails) Provisional Operator Lens",
+      "ja": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails) 暫定オペレーター・レンズ",
+      "ko": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails) 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈",
       "zh": "塔勒布视角（凸性与尾部）临时操作视角"
     },
     "persona_id": "master_taleb",
     "public_label": {
       "en": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails) Solo Test",
+      "ja": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails) 単独テスト",
+      "ko": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails) 단독 테스트",
       "zh": "塔勒布视角（凸性与尾部）单人测试"
     },
     "source_cutoff": "2026-07-27"
@@ -94,7 +102,7 @@
     "leak_rule": "public_at <= as_of AND memory_created_at <= as_of",
     "postmortem_horizon_days": 90
   },
-  "pack_version": "0.9.2",
+  "pack_version": "0.9.4",
   "research": {
     "mandatory_disconfirming_queries": [
       "Reject any return thesis with an unresolved absorbing loss state.",
@@ -111,16 +119,22 @@
   "schema_version": 3,
   "selection": {
     "best_for": {
-      "en": "Testing deterministic behavior in tail_risk, convexity, options, fragility",
-      "zh": "用于测试确定性行为：tail_risk、convexity、options、fragility"
+      "en": "Tail risk, convexity, options, and fragility analysis.",
+      "ja": "テールリスク、凸性、オプション、脆弱性分析。",
+      "ko": "꼬리위험, 볼록성, 옵션, 취약성 분석.",
+      "zh": "尾部风险、凸性、期权与脆弱性分析。"
     },
     "identity": {
       "en": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails); project-derived and not human reviewed",
+      "ja": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails)。プロジェクト派生で、方法帰属について人による審査を受けていない暫定オペレーター・レンズ。本人の発言や現在の見解ではない。",
+      "ko": "Taleb Lens (Convexity and Tails). 프로젝트에서 파생되었고 방법 귀속에 대한 인적 심사를 거치지 않은 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈다. 본인의 발언이나 현재 견해가 아니다.",
       "zh": "塔勒布视角（凸性与尾部）；项目派生、未经人工审定"
     },
     "method": {
       "en": "Reject ruin and hidden concavity first, then evaluate whether a payoff is robust or positively convex after liquidity, tail pricing and execution friction.",
-      "zh": "Reject ruin and hidden concavity first, then evaluate whether a payoff is robust or positively convex after liquidity, tail pricing and execution friction."
+      "ja": "まず破産リスクと隠れた凹性を排除し、そのうえで流動性、テール価格、執行摩擦を考慮した後もペイオフが頑健か、または正の凸性を持つか評価する。",
+      "ko": "먼저 파산 위험과 숨은 오목성을 배제한 뒤, 유동성, 꼬리위험 가격, 집행 마찰을 반영하고도 손익 구조가 견고하거나 양의 볼록성을 갖는지 평가한다.",
+      "zh": "不预测单一路径，先检查破产风险、隐藏杠杆、负凸性和极端情景下的收益形状。"
     }
   },
   "voice": {

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_taleb/provisional-index.json

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
   ],
   "experiment_pass_count": 0,
   "formula_approval_binding_count": 0,
-  "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:7265b10a67bd0437af02572176793ef0b8529e48437edc5a2e0b1b1b9fbe73d0",
+  "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:fc8afd469d9cafccccc4221622ccde5061167c538ab6472eecaaf65efce5461b",
   "method_model_eligible": false,
   "native_states": [
     "provisional_no_trade",
@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@
   ],
   "persona_id": "master_taleb",
   "planned_tool_ids": [
-    "master_taleb.payoff_ruin",
-    "master_taleb.tail_friction"
+    "master_taleb.debt_service_cushion",
+    "master_taleb.normalised_skew"
   ],
   "production_eligible": false,
   "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_taleb/sources.jsonl

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:8116fcce4aa3827d943562527fa0613cbb0e1ee528068d6fe53b7cfc55b03b7c","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_taleb"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:678e17ab8610dd057","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_taleb","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}
+{"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:9b5de8e8d33b9e9f95a73b8dce95c73d192607fdeb5f3e80b16aeb457502fd12","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_taleb"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:678e17ab8610dd057","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_taleb","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_taleb/tools.json

@@ -1,12 +1,22 @@
 [
   {
     "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
-    "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:f05c53064213d82908514be6909726fa7353df2f1320b5d01dfc80079a306e67",
-    "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:149d3d3b9e0b2a3c7402bf8f228267112fd1ee604991ad773302c5c87c0e308c",
-    "derivation_spec_id": "master_taleb.payoff_ruin.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
+    "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:3289b24b65e14cbd73a54701c6b3227f25d0b813a8831666a0c6d9fb47246161",
+    "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:5b78e79b939648a637fbf773b55890a54eadf081fe1c22c36935f296ce103744",
+    "derivation_spec_id": "master_taleb.debt_service_cushion.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
     "dsl_version": "1.1",
-    "id": "master_taleb.payoff_ruin",
+    "id": "master_taleb.debt_service_cushion",
     "input_contracts": [
+      {
+        "on_missing": "fail",
+        "period": {
+          "alignment": "as_of",
+          "basis": "duration",
+          "window": "ANY"
+        },
+        "unit": "multiple",
+        "value_kind": "ratio"
+      },
       {
         "on_missing": "fail",
         "period": {
@@ -18,41 +28,54 @@
         "value_kind": "scalar"
       }
     ],
-    "input_schema_hash": "sha256:12fb560fd63cc244e30ade64d5cb0d65e74a6d4d01b4f16f8e33cb4ba21cc188",
+    "input_schema_hash": "sha256:d44ace009dce55e64366e358c09de5e650f0c5c6ccdfa4f4b846b40a63610097",
     "inputs": [
       {
-        "fact_id": "risk.ruin_possible"
+        "fact_id": "financial.interest_coverage"
+      },
+      {
+        "literal": 1
       }
     ],
     "intended_use": "local_test_only",
-    "kind": "transform",
+    "kind": "recomputation",
     "on_missing": "fail",
-    "operation": "identity",
-    "output_id": "risk.ruin_possible",
+    "operation": "subtract",
+    "output_id": "risk.debt_service_cushion.master_taleb",
     "output_period": {
       "alignment": "as_of",
       "basis": "instant",
       "window": null
     },
-    "output_schema_hash": "sha256:52eebed527c01c6979b45d06879ddc98fedc159a459bb3b097fa6e6823bb6abd",
+    "output_schema_hash": "sha256:675e87057b3cd9e59f2e66dae38cf5fc55ae74baff48d398c9e7ba4e6564d88e",
     "production_eligible": false,
     "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
     "schema_version": 1,
     "source_ids": [
       "proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"
     ],
-    "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
-    "value_kind": "scalar",
-    "version": "0.1.0"
+    "unit": "multiple",
+    "value_kind": "ratio",
+    "version": "0.2.0"
   },
   {
     "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
-    "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:c52d6265a127d5f7bafdd20680860021f11203211e924642508f34c7a11e02e8",
-    "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:4cc0fc13ae85ded9e8d4d8df020da285f5c03ccd03b070e813f0c55a7d2b3a5a",
-    "derivation_spec_id": "master_taleb.tail_friction.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
+    "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:f6bcc23d1175c84de9fdb866499c869436b14f18c48391b5eac08e0a02862430",
+    "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:88bc4482c18c31314609170fbc6d8ffe0168e5e2476a8f54a48596694958b0c7",
+    "derivation_spec_id": "master_taleb.normalised_skew.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
     "dsl_version": "1.1",
-    "id": "master_taleb.tail_friction",
+    "id": "master_taleb.normalised_skew",
     "input_contracts": [
+      {
+        "on_missing": "fail",
+        "period": {
+          "alignment": "as_of",
+          "basis": "instant",
+          "window": null
+        },
+        "unit": "decimal_volatility_difference",
+        "value_kind": "ratio"
+      },
       {
         "on_missing": "fail",
         "period": {
@@ -64,31 +87,34 @@
         "value_kind": "ratio"
       }
     ],
-    "input_schema_hash": "sha256:afa118abfc7dda071b0644ad6132f728554053e467d9444e9f7e08d3e6d43716",
+    "input_schema_hash": "sha256:9b2fb251c417eafcb6e2367d54d6dc0396ffbd007eb615ec1cfa9b5abf156f90",
     "inputs": [
+      {
+        "fact_id": "options.skew_25d"
+      },
       {
         "fact_id": "options.implied_volatility"
       }
     ],
     "intended_use": "local_test_only",
-    "kind": "transform",
+    "kind": "recomputation",
     "on_missing": "fail",
-    "operation": "identity",
-    "output_id": "options.realized_volatility",
+    "operation": "divide",
+    "output_id": "options.normalised_skew.master_taleb",
     "output_period": {
       "alignment": "as_of",
       "basis": "instant",
       "window": null
     },
-    "output_schema_hash": "sha256:35a126af9ea890b3f07c5d48600324007e53d980e9530198346c9749c391aef8",
+    "output_schema_hash": "sha256:168906d4c10d311d53007a251d0b5239ac681c6c1d81921c7230b2f246c5443a",
     "production_eligible": false,
     "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
     "schema_version": 1,
     "source_ids": [
       "proxy:678e17ab8610dd057"
     ],
-    "unit": "decimal_annualized_volatility",
+    "unit": "decimal",
     "value_kind": "ratio",
-    "version": "0.1.0"
+    "version": "0.2.0"
   }
 ]

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_thorp/decision_policy.json

@@ -2,7 +2,28 @@
   "abstention_policy": "fail_closed",
   "dsl_version": "1.1",
   "eligibility": {
-    "all": []
+    "all": [
+      {
+        "condition": {
+          "op": "exists",
+          "value": {
+            "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
+          }
+        },
+        "condition_id": "master_thorp.ruin_constraint_evaluable",
+        "on_false": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
+        },
+        "on_uncomputable": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
+        },
+        "source_ids": [
+          "proxy:1366952123de20fc8"
+        ]
+      }
+    ]
   },
   "fact_gate": {
     "on_missing_critical": {
@@ -10,21 +31,48 @@
       "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
     }
   },
-  "hard_vetoes": [],
+  "hard_vetoes": [
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "left": {
+          "output_id": "trade.net_edge.master_thorp"
+        },
+        "op": "lte",
+        "right": {
+          "fact_id": "execution.bid_ask"
+        }
+      },
+      "on_trigger": {
+        "common_stance": "opposed",
+        "native_state": "provisional_no_measurable_edge"
+      },
+      "on_uncomputable": {
+        "action": "abstain",
+        "decision": {
+          "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
+          "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
+        }
+      },
+      "source_ids": [
+        "proxy:1366952123de20fc8"
+      ],
+      "veto_id": "master_thorp.edge_inside_the_friction"
+    }
+  ],
   "native_decision_schema": "edge_sizing_v1",
   "native_output_fields": [
     {
       "field": "metric_1",
       "on_missing": "fail",
       "value": {
-        "output_id": "trade.edge"
+        "output_id": "trade.net_edge.master_thorp"
       }
     },
     {
       "field": "metric_2",
       "on_missing": "fail",
       "value": {
-        "output_id": "position.fraction"
+        "output_id": "trade.edge_per_unit_of_volatility.master_thorp"
       }
     }
   ],
@@ -52,7 +100,7 @@
     },
     {
       "decision": {
-        "common_stance": "cautious",
+        "common_stance": "constructive",
         "native_state": "provisional_fractional_position"
       },
       "min_ratio": 1
@@ -69,16 +117,16 @@
       {
         "condition": {
           "left": {
-            "output_id": "trade.edge"
+            "output_id": "trade.edge_per_unit_of_volatility.master_thorp"
           },
-          "op": "gt",
+          "op": "gte",
           "right": {
-            "literal": 0
+            "literal": 0.063
           }
         },
         "coverage_weight": 1,
         "points": 1,
-        "rule_id": "proxy_score_1",
+        "rule_id": "thorp_edge_beyond_one_session_sigma",
         "source_ids": [
           "proxy:1366952123de20fc8"
         ]
@@ -86,16 +134,16 @@
       {
         "condition": {
           "left": {
-            "output_id": "position.fraction"
+            "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
           },
-          "op": "gt",
+          "op": "lte",
           "right": {
-            "literal": 0
+            "literal": 1
           }
         },
         "coverage_weight": 1,
         "points": 1,
-        "rule_id": "proxy_score_2",
+        "rule_id": "thorp_loss_cannot_exceed_the_stake",
         "source_ids": [
           "proxy:1366952123de20fc8"
         ]

package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_thorp/doctrine.jsonl

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Independently estimate edge and odds, then constrain Kelly-style sizing by estimation error, dependence, liquidity and risk of ruin.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_1","source_ids":["proxy:1366952123de20fc8"]}
-{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Recompute expected payoff from explicit outcomes and probability ranges.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:1366952123de20fc8"]}
-{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Calculate a conservative sizing range after uncertainty, dependence and ruin limits.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:1366952123de20fc8"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"The observable move with one crossing of the market taken out of it. His objection to a gross edge is that it is never the number anyone actually receives, so the cost of transacting belongs inside the estimate rather than in a footnote to it.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:1366952123de20fc8"]}
+{"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"The Kelly intuition in the only form these facts support: an edge means nothing until it is set against the dispersion of the thing being bet on. The criterion itself divides by the variance; this divides by an annualised volatility, so it ranks edges rather than sizing them.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:1366952123de20fc8"]}
 {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject when edge cannot be independently recomputed from explicit outcomes.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_4","source_ids":["proxy:1366952123de20fc8"]}
 {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject sizing that permits an absorbing loss under plausible dependence.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_5","source_ids":["proxy:1366952123de20fc8"]}
 {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject a theoretical size that cannot be entered and exited at modeled costs.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_6","source_ids":["proxy:1366952123de20fc8"]}