alphacouncil-agent 0.9.2 → 1.0.0

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (493) hide show
  1. package/.claude/commands/alpha.md +22 -3
  2. package/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json +3 -3
  3. package/.claude-plugin/plugin.json +2 -2
  4. package/.codex-plugin/plugin.json +4 -4
  5. package/.grok/commands/alpha.md +22 -3
  6. package/.opencode/command/alpha.md +22 -3
  7. package/AGENTS.md +42 -4
  8. package/CHANGELOG.md +164 -0
  9. package/CLAUDE.md +59 -7
  10. package/README.ja.md +25 -11
  11. package/README.md +44 -12
  12. package/README.zh-CN.md +37 -12
  13. package/commands/alpha.md +22 -3
  14. package/data/authored/core-seats.mjs +808 -0
  15. package/data/authored/growth-seats.mjs +581 -0
  16. package/data/authored/index.mjs +114 -0
  17. package/data/authored/quant-seats.mjs +564 -0
  18. package/data/authored/value-seats.mjs +663 -0
  19. package/data/build-profile.v1.json +2 -1
  20. package/data/council-evaluation-protocol.v1.json +7 -4
  21. package/data/master-selector-method-locales.v1.mjs +296 -0
  22. package/data/persona-v3-ai-assisted-solo-profile.v1.json +2 -2
  23. package/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs +60 -3
  24. package/docs/INSTALL.md +43 -6
  25. package/docs/personas.md +2 -1
  26. package/docs/plans/v1.0-roadmap.md +487 -0
  27. package/docs/releases/v0.9.3.md +86 -0
  28. package/docs/releases/v0.9.4.md +79 -0
  29. package/docs/releases/v0.9.5.md +96 -0
  30. package/docs/releases/v1.0.0.md +164 -0
  31. package/docs/report-contract.md +75 -2
  32. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/a.json +13 -13
  33. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/b.json +2 -2
  34. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/c.json +2 -2
  35. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/d13.json +126 -126
  36. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/d26.json +274 -254
  37. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/e-d13.json +129 -129
  38. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/e-d26.json +277 -257
  39. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/h_ai_reference.json +278 -258
  40. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/simulation-input.json +7278 -556
  41. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/simulation-manifest.json +22 -22
  42. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_ackman/reviews/{change_value_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  43. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_ackman/reviews/{power_map.ai-review.json → owner_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  44. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_aschenbrenner/reviews/{compute_power_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  45. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_aschenbrenner/reviews/{timeline_reverse_valuation.ai-review.json → price_implied_cash_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  46. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_asness/reviews/{crowding_cost_stress.ai-review.json → nominal_earnings_yield_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  47. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_asness/reviews/{factor_decomposer.ai-review.json → real_earnings_yield_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  48. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_bogle/reviews/expected_return_over_long_bond.ai-review.json +277 -0
  49. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_bogle/reviews/fundamental_expected_return.ai-review.json +277 -0
  50. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_buffett/reviews/{incremental_returns.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  51. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_buffett/reviews/{owner_earnings_rebuilder.ai-review.json → owner_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  52. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_burry/reviews/{mispricing_carry.ai-review.json → net_current_asset_surplus_per_share.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  53. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_burry/reviews/{capital_structure_reader.ai-review.json → net_current_asset_value_per_share.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  54. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_cathie_wood/reviews/{cost_adoption_curve.ai-review.json → current_cash_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  55. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_cathie_wood/reviews/{capture_valuation_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  56. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_dalio/reviews/{debt_driver_stress.ai-review.json → policy_real_rate.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  57. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_dalio/reviews/{regime_classifier.ai-review.json → real_curve_slope.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  58. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_damodaran/reviews/{reverse_valuation.ai-review.json → implied_equity_risk_premium.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  59. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_damodaran/reviews/{story_dcf.ai-review.json → premium_versus_long_run_average.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  60. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_druckenmiller/reviews/{liquidity_revision_map.ai-review.json → liquidity_curve_impulse.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  61. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_druckenmiller/reviews/{inflection_payoff.ai-review.json → policy_real_rate.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  62. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_duan_yongping/reviews/{opportunity_cost.ai-review.json → five_year_opportunity_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  63. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_duan_yongping/reviews/{user_value_evidence.ai-review.json → margin_retention.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  64. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_fisher/reviews/{research_productivity.ai-review.json → margin_retention.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  65. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_fisher/reviews/{scuttlebutt_graph.ai-review.json → reinvestment_spread.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  66. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_forensic_short/reviews/{borrow_catalyst.ai-review.json → cash_conversion_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  67. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_forensic_short/reviews/{accounting_rebuilder.ai-review.json → cash_cover_of_leverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  68. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_graham/reviews/{asset_floor.ai-review.json → defensive_hurdle_base.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  69. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_graham/reviews/{normalized_earnings.ai-review.json → half_normalised_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  70. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_jhunjhunwala/reviews/{penetration_liquidity.ai-review.json → cash_quality_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  71. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_jhunjhunwala/reviews/{promoter_governance.ai-review.json → real_structural_growth.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  72. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_klarman/reviews/{recovery_waterfall.ai-review.json → downside_asset_coverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  73. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_klarman/reviews/{cash_catalyst_compare.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  74. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_li_lu/reviews/{promise_integrity_ledger.ai-review.json → cash_backed_decade_return.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  75. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_li_lu/reviews/{ten_year_return_bridge.ai-review.json → decade_return_over_long_bond.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  76. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_lynch/reviews/{story_numbers_check.ai-review.json → growth_justified_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  77. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_lynch/reviews/{category_classifier.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  78. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_marks/reviews/{cycle_temperature.ai-review.json → credit_cycle_position.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  79. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_marks/reviews/{implied_expectations.ai-review.json → equity_over_corporate_debt.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  80. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_munger/reviews/{failure_path_graph.ai-review.json → debt_service_cushion.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  81. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_munger/reviews/{incentive_map.ai-review.json → reported_earnings_cash_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  82. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_natenberg/reviews/{surface_builder.ai-review.json → normalised_skew.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  83. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_natenberg/reviews/{greeks_payoff.ai-review.json → round_trip_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  84. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_pabrai/reviews/{downside_floor.ai-review.json → downside_floor_coverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  85. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_pabrai/reviews/{discrete_payoff.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  86. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_simons/reviews/{oos_cost_test.ai-review.json → absolute_session_move.ai-review.json} +42 -42
  87. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_simons/reviews/{leakage_audit.ai-review.json → session_move_over_implied.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  88. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_sinclair/reviews/{realized_vol_forecast.ai-review.json → round_trip_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  89. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_sinclair/reviews/{net_edge_sizer.ai-review.json → volatility_per_unit_of_width.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  90. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_soros/reviews/{reversal_monitor.ai-review.json → credit_cycle_position.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  91. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_soros/reviews/{reflexivity_graph.ai-review.json → financing_burden.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  92. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_taleb/reviews/{tail_friction.ai-review.json → debt_service_cushion.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  93. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_taleb/reviews/{payoff_ruin.ai-review.json → normalised_skew.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  94. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_thorp/reviews/{edge_recalculator.ai-review.json → edge_per_unit_of_volatility.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  95. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_thorp/reviews/{fractional_kelly.ai-review.json → net_edge.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  96. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/review-manifest.json +288 -270
  97. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-adjudications/index.json +2 -2
  98. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-extractions/index.json +2 -2
  99. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-skeptic-reviews/index.json +2 -2
  100. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-source-prereviews/index.json +6 -2
  101. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/decision_policy.json +122 -11
  102. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  103. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/manifest.json +27 -10
  104. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  105. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  106. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/tools.json +56 -30
  107. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/decision_policy.json +101 -10
  108. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  109. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/manifest.json +26 -8
  110. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  111. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  112. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/tools.json +56 -30
  113. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/decision_policy.json +89 -10
  114. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  115. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/manifest.json +25 -8
  116. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  117. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  118. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/tools.json +56 -30
  119. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/counterfactuals.jsonl +0 -0
  120. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/decision_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  121. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/decision_policy.json +170 -0
  122. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/doctrine.jsonl +14 -0
  123. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/calibration_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  124. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/experiments.json +5 -0
  125. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/golden_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  126. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/pairwise_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  127. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/failures.jsonl +0 -0
  128. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/manifest.json +141 -0
  129. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/memory_policy.json +5 -0
  130. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/provisional-index.json +41 -0
  131. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/research_policy.json +11 -0
  132. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/sources.jsonl +1 -0
  133. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/tools.json +120 -0
  134. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/voice.en.md +7 -0
  135. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/voice.zh.md +7 -0
  136. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/decision_policy.json +102 -11
  137. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  138. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/manifest.json +24 -8
  139. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  140. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  141. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/tools.json +55 -29
  142. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/decision_policy.json +102 -12
  143. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  144. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/manifest.json +26 -10
  145. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  146. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  147. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/tools.json +56 -30
  148. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/decision_policy.json +74 -12
  149. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  150. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/manifest.json +26 -10
  151. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  152. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  153. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/tools.json +56 -30
  154. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/decision_policy.json +123 -16
  155. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  156. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/manifest.json +24 -8
  157. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  158. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  159. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/tools.json +56 -30
  160. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/decision_policy.json +58 -10
  161. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  162. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/manifest.json +23 -8
  163. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  164. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  165. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/tools.json +54 -28
  166. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/decision_policy.json +89 -10
  167. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  168. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/manifest.json +25 -8
  169. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  170. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  171. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/tools.json +55 -29
  172. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/decision_policy.json +138 -13
  173. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  174. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/manifest.json +31 -11
  175. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  176. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  177. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/tools.json +82 -30
  178. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/decision_policy.json +102 -11
  179. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  180. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/manifest.json +27 -10
  181. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  182. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  183. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/tools.json +58 -32
  184. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/decision_policy.json +93 -14
  185. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  186. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/manifest.json +20 -8
  187. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  188. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  189. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/tools.json +53 -27
  190. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/decision_policy.json +103 -12
  191. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  192. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/manifest.json +26 -8
  193. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  194. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  195. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/tools.json +67 -28
  196. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/decision_policy.json +77 -12
  197. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
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  414. package/schemas/persona-v3-release-source-review-evidence-v1.schema.json +3 -3
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  416. package/schemas/persona-v3.schema.json +37 -2
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  423. package/scripts/doctor.mjs +11 -9
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  432. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-ai-machine-simulations.mjs +32 -4
  433. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-build-specs.mjs +3 -2
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  437. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-solo-formula-pipeline.mjs +182 -16
  438. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-solo-test-packs.mjs +143 -16
  439. package/scripts/package-smoke.mjs +32 -12
  440. package/scripts/report-persona-corpus-gaps.mjs +4 -1
  441. package/scripts/review-persona-v3-solo-formulas.mjs +12 -8
  442. package/scripts/run-tests.mjs +23 -2
  443. package/scripts/scaffold-persona-v3-staging.mjs +1 -1
  444. package/skills/agent-skills-governance/SKILL.md +8 -2
  445. package/skills/alphacouncil-agent/SKILL.md +60 -9
  446. package/skills/public-equity-investing/SKILL.md +17 -0
  447. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_ackman/provisional-derivations/change_value_bridge.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  448. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_ackman/provisional-derivations/power_map.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  449. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_aschenbrenner/provisional-derivations/compute_power_bridge.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
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  451. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_asness/provisional-derivations/crowding_cost_stress.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  452. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_asness/provisional-derivations/factor_decomposer.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  453. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_buffett/provisional-derivations/incremental_returns.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  454. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_buffett/provisional-derivations/owner_earnings_rebuilder.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  455. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_burry/provisional-derivations/capital_structure_reader.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  456. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_burry/provisional-derivations/mispricing_carry.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  457. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_cathie_wood/provisional-derivations/capture_valuation_bridge.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  458. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_cathie_wood/provisional-derivations/cost_adoption_curve.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  459. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_dalio/provisional-derivations/debt_driver_stress.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  460. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_dalio/provisional-derivations/regime_classifier.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  461. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_damodaran/provisional-derivations/story_dcf.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  462. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_druckenmiller/provisional-derivations/inflection_payoff.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  463. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_druckenmiller/provisional-derivations/liquidity_revision_map.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  464. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_duan_yongping/provisional-derivations/opportunity_cost.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  465. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_duan_yongping/provisional-derivations/user_value_evidence.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  466. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_fisher/provisional-derivations/research_productivity.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  467. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_fisher/provisional-derivations/scuttlebutt_graph.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  468. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_forensic_short/provisional-derivations/borrow_catalyst.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  469. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_graham/provisional-derivations/asset_floor.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  470. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_graham/provisional-derivations/normalized_earnings.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  471. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_jhunjhunwala/provisional-derivations/penetration_liquidity.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  472. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_jhunjhunwala/provisional-derivations/promoter_governance.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  473. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_klarman/provisional-derivations/cash_catalyst_compare.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  474. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_klarman/provisional-derivations/recovery_waterfall.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  475. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_li_lu/provisional-derivations/promise_integrity_ledger.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  476. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_li_lu/provisional-derivations/ten_year_return_bridge.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  477. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_lynch/provisional-derivations/category_classifier.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  478. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_lynch/provisional-derivations/story_numbers_check.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  479. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_marks/provisional-derivations/cycle_temperature.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  480. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_marks/provisional-derivations/implied_expectations.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  481. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_munger/provisional-derivations/failure_path_graph.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  482. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_munger/provisional-derivations/incentive_map.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  483. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_pabrai/provisional-derivations/discrete_payoff.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  484. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_pabrai/provisional-derivations/downside_floor.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
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@@ -16,14 +16,18 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "native_decision_schema": "cycle_risk_posture_v1",
18
18
  "optional_fact_types": [
19
+ "index.aggregate_pe_ttm",
20
+ "cycle.valuation_percentile",
19
21
  "cycle.credit_conditions",
20
22
  "cycle.investor_behavior",
23
+ "expectations.consensus",
21
24
  "valuation.implied_expectations",
22
25
  "risk.permanent_loss"
23
26
  ],
24
27
  "required_fact_types": [
25
- "cycle.valuation_percentile",
26
- "expectations.consensus"
28
+ "macro.credit_spread",
29
+ "index.aggregate_earnings_yield",
30
+ "macro.aaa_corporate_yield"
27
31
  ]
28
32
  },
29
33
  "components": {
@@ -44,8 +48,8 @@
44
48
  "computation": {
45
49
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
46
50
  "pipeline": [
47
- "master_marks.cycle_temperature",
48
- "master_marks.implied_expectations"
51
+ "master_marks.credit_cycle_position",
52
+ "master_marks.equity_over_corporate_debt"
49
53
  ]
50
54
  },
51
55
  "decision": {
@@ -53,8 +57,9 @@
53
57
  "common_projection": "common_stance_v1",
54
58
  "confidence_calibrator": null,
55
59
  "eligibility": [
56
- "cycle.valuation_percentile",
57
- "expectations.consensus"
60
+ "macro.credit_spread",
61
+ "index.aggregate_earnings_yield",
62
+ "macro.aaa_corporate_yield"
58
63
  ],
59
64
  "hard_vetoes": [
60
65
  "master_marks.euphoria",
@@ -77,11 +82,15 @@
77
82
  "maturity": "operator_lens",
78
83
  "operator_label": {
79
84
  "en": "Howard Marks Lens Provisional Operator Lens",
85
+ "ja": "Howard Marks Lens 暫定オペレーター・レンズ",
86
+ "ko": "Howard Marks Lens 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈",
80
87
  "zh": "霍华德·马克斯视角临时操作视角"
81
88
  },
82
89
  "persona_id": "master_marks",
83
90
  "public_label": {
84
91
  "en": "Howard Marks Lens Solo Test",
92
+ "ja": "Howard Marks Lens 単独テスト",
93
+ "ko": "Howard Marks Lens 단독 테스트",
85
94
  "zh": "霍华德·马克斯视角单人测试"
86
95
  },
87
96
  "source_cutoff": "2026-07-27"
@@ -92,7 +101,7 @@
92
101
  "leak_rule": "public_at <= as_of AND memory_created_at <= as_of",
93
102
  "postmortem_horizon_days": 90
94
103
  },
95
- "pack_version": "0.9.2",
104
+ "pack_version": "0.9.4",
96
105
  "research": {
97
106
  "mandatory_disconfirming_queries": [
98
107
  "Block aggressive posture when reviewed credit and behavior evidence indicate euphoria.",
@@ -109,16 +118,22 @@
109
118
  "schema_version": 3,
110
119
  "selection": {
111
120
  "best_for": {
112
- "en": "Testing deterministic behavior in credit_cycles, distressed_value, market_psychology, risk_posture",
113
- "zh": "用于测试确定性行为:credit_cycles、distressed_value、market_psychology、risk_posture"
121
+ "en": "Credit cycles, distressed value, market psychology, and risk posture.",
122
+ "ja": "信用サイクル、ディストレスト・バリュー、市場心理、リスク姿勢。",
123
+ "ko": "신용 사이클, 부실 자산 가치, 시장 심리, 위험 태도.",
124
+ "zh": "信用周期、困境价值、市场心理与风险姿态。"
114
125
  },
115
126
  "identity": {
116
127
  "en": "Howard Marks Lens; project-derived and not human reviewed",
128
+ "ja": "Howard Marks Lens。プロジェクト派生で、方法帰属について人による審査を受けていない暫定オペレーター・レンズ。本人の発言や現在の見解ではない。",
129
+ "ko": "Howard Marks Lens. 프로젝트에서 파생되었고 방법 귀속에 대한 인적 심사를 거치지 않은 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈다. 본인의 발언이나 현재 견해가 아니다.",
117
130
  "zh": "霍华德·马克斯视角;项目派生、未经人工审定"
118
131
  },
119
132
  "method": {
120
133
  "en": "Calibrate aggressiveness to cycle temperature, consensus, price-implied expectations, credit conditions and permanent-loss risk rather than point forecasting.",
121
- "zh": "Calibrate aggressiveness to cycle temperature, consensus, price-implied expectations, credit conditions and permanent-loss risk rather than point forecasting."
134
+ "ja": "一点予測ではなく、サイクルの過熱度、市場コンセンサス、価格に織り込まれた期待、信用環境、永久損失リスクに合わせて投資姿勢の積極度を調整する。",
135
+ "ko": "단일 시점 예측 대신 사이클의 과열 정도, 시장 합의, 가격에 내재된 기대, 신용 여건, 영구 손실 위험에 맞춰 투자 자세의 공격성을 조절한다.",
136
+ "zh": "判断周期温度、市场共识、价格隐含预期和永久损失风险。"
122
137
  }
123
138
  },
124
139
  "voice": {
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "experiment_pass_count": 0,
18
18
  "formula_approval_binding_count": 0,
19
- "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:7265b10a67bd0437af02572176793ef0b8529e48437edc5a2e0b1b1b9fbe73d0",
19
+ "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:fc8afd469d9cafccccc4221622ccde5061167c538ab6472eecaaf65efce5461b",
20
20
  "method_model_eligible": false,
21
21
  "native_states": [
22
22
  "provisional_cycle_unknown",
@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@
26
26
  ],
27
27
  "persona_id": "master_marks",
28
28
  "planned_tool_ids": [
29
- "master_marks.cycle_temperature",
30
- "master_marks.implied_expectations"
29
+ "master_marks.credit_cycle_position",
30
+ "master_marks.equity_over_corporate_debt"
31
31
  ],
32
32
  "production_eligible": false,
33
33
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
@@ -1 +1 @@
1
- {"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:dbe48aacb0fe195df5ff90c933b69c1e8c13a7b9dc7e40de22e20e06726e0af4","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_marks"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:08cfa8347347faed7","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_marks","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}
1
+ {"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:26c59510de5656ea491bb72f59604cb46bb916c29bae0be15d7845f576213adc","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_marks"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:08cfa8347347faed7","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_marks","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}
@@ -1,12 +1,22 @@
1
1
  [
2
2
  {
3
3
  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
4
- "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:fc5731e8512ce0a16ba1c00ac9c3f718d5f1f4b70969f3e7d0665398880330a5",
5
- "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:669beef679dd4c9a0193096ac367849e8e7cfb66ceeede65f277a89b04625f81",
6
- "derivation_spec_id": "master_marks.cycle_temperature.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
4
+ "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:7fa3102a8ff54e44ea3cf29dd9e34d4ae08d830f050b71b732a76ced5f8daf29",
5
+ "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:6a651ebcd2f6cd204cef99cab0e2ab363b5bcb1ea9b19447b4d562050856aa3f",
6
+ "derivation_spec_id": "master_marks.credit_cycle_position.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
7
7
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
8
- "id": "master_marks.cycle_temperature",
8
+ "id": "master_marks.credit_cycle_position",
9
9
  "input_contracts": [
10
+ {
11
+ "on_missing": "fail",
12
+ "period": {
13
+ "alignment": "as_of",
14
+ "basis": "instant",
15
+ "window": null
16
+ },
17
+ "unit": "decimal",
18
+ "value_kind": "ratio"
19
+ },
10
20
  {
11
21
  "on_missing": "fail",
12
22
  "period": {
@@ -18,40 +28,43 @@
18
28
  "value_kind": "scalar"
19
29
  }
20
30
  ],
21
- "input_schema_hash": "sha256:016aec2fd07c92dd7ed6f7d264498f565f9aef99338daa3075dc190d57ecd0e1",
31
+ "input_schema_hash": "sha256:a83a44211f3b8a86162f1061156588545de04a6ca5ec9d8cf3fb81f84725ec60",
22
32
  "inputs": [
23
33
  {
24
- "fact_id": "cycle.valuation_percentile"
34
+ "fact_id": "macro.credit_spread"
35
+ },
36
+ {
37
+ "literal": 0.05
25
38
  }
26
39
  ],
27
40
  "intended_use": "local_test_only",
28
- "kind": "transform",
41
+ "kind": "recomputation",
29
42
  "on_missing": "fail",
30
- "operation": "identity",
31
- "output_id": "cycle.valuation_percentile",
43
+ "operation": "subtract",
44
+ "output_id": "macro.credit_spread_gap.master_marks",
32
45
  "output_period": {
33
46
  "alignment": "as_of",
34
47
  "basis": "instant",
35
48
  "window": null
36
49
  },
37
- "output_schema_hash": "sha256:9a0bad8dd31ead6f8e5fef43c00eea682c6515fe3ac5f018d72a7c9d8baebd1e",
50
+ "output_schema_hash": "sha256:9ee3b94d5a29436bd49d3ca773e533eec15c60b21899cc71a3be49ba5d931555",
38
51
  "production_eligible": false,
39
52
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
40
53
  "schema_version": 1,
41
54
  "source_ids": [
42
55
  "proxy:08cfa8347347faed7"
43
56
  ],
44
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
45
- "value_kind": "scalar",
46
- "version": "0.1.0"
57
+ "unit": "decimal",
58
+ "value_kind": "ratio",
59
+ "version": "0.2.0"
47
60
  },
48
61
  {
49
62
  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
50
- "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:f74dc4c22edda2e6998afc39dd9b009edd0d7291ed61f714015d609fabc6c767",
51
- "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:9c10a628bbb736683d6ed57868b9e36160d96855cf61d20ebc71f3c2c0823949",
52
- "derivation_spec_id": "master_marks.implied_expectations.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
63
+ "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:284ce394de5332330d2c8e70b7e600b08496e027208c47ba7fcd3093442be7da",
64
+ "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:d2b8904110e22abd95fd6221802e62b82b411d310acc5e167cbb17d8ac9ddb7b",
65
+ "derivation_spec_id": "master_marks.equity_over_corporate_debt.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
53
66
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
54
- "id": "master_marks.implied_expectations",
67
+ "id": "master_marks.equity_over_corporate_debt",
55
68
  "input_contracts": [
56
69
  {
57
70
  "on_missing": "fail",
@@ -60,35 +73,48 @@
60
73
  "basis": "instant",
61
74
  "window": null
62
75
  },
63
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
64
- "value_kind": "scalar"
76
+ "unit": "decimal",
77
+ "value_kind": "ratio"
78
+ },
79
+ {
80
+ "on_missing": "fail",
81
+ "period": {
82
+ "alignment": "as_of",
83
+ "basis": "instant",
84
+ "window": null
85
+ },
86
+ "unit": "decimal",
87
+ "value_kind": "ratio"
65
88
  }
66
89
  ],
67
- "input_schema_hash": "sha256:aad6ca170bc456ad5dc6afc3022831545b9371545383a6ac473364b15d62cc9d",
90
+ "input_schema_hash": "sha256:a6ef5f524282508a56f6dced355eac7e4d9267a236346d555f005383b544e519",
68
91
  "inputs": [
69
92
  {
70
- "fact_id": "expectations.consensus"
93
+ "fact_id": "index.aggregate_earnings_yield"
94
+ },
95
+ {
96
+ "fact_id": "macro.aaa_corporate_yield"
71
97
  }
72
98
  ],
73
99
  "intended_use": "local_test_only",
74
- "kind": "transform",
100
+ "kind": "recomputation",
75
101
  "on_missing": "fail",
76
- "operation": "identity",
77
- "output_id": "valuation.implied_expectations",
102
+ "operation": "subtract",
103
+ "output_id": "index.equity_over_corporate_debt_premium.master_marks",
78
104
  "output_period": {
79
105
  "alignment": "as_of",
80
106
  "basis": "instant",
81
107
  "window": null
82
108
  },
83
- "output_schema_hash": "sha256:b1e1388df98faba85d0dc4703433e11a9acc1c1513256149780a8cb0a265ab63",
109
+ "output_schema_hash": "sha256:825e5c775afeddaf6dbb225429d5e587ba84558050f98e1d6f1328e076588467",
84
110
  "production_eligible": false,
85
111
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
86
112
  "schema_version": 1,
87
113
  "source_ids": [
88
114
  "proxy:08cfa8347347faed7"
89
115
  ],
90
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
91
- "value_kind": "scalar",
92
- "version": "0.1.0"
116
+ "unit": "decimal",
117
+ "value_kind": "ratio",
118
+ "version": "0.2.0"
93
119
  }
94
120
  ]
@@ -2,7 +2,48 @@
2
2
  "abstention_policy": "fail_closed",
3
3
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
4
4
  "eligibility": {
5
- "all": []
5
+ "all": [
6
+ {
7
+ "condition": {
8
+ "op": "exists",
9
+ "value": {
10
+ "fact_id": "financial.incremental_return_on_capital"
11
+ }
12
+ },
13
+ "condition_id": "master_munger.economics_can_be_stated",
14
+ "on_false": {
15
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
16
+ "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
17
+ },
18
+ "on_uncomputable": {
19
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
20
+ "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
21
+ },
22
+ "source_ids": [
23
+ "proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"
24
+ ]
25
+ },
26
+ {
27
+ "condition": {
28
+ "op": "exists",
29
+ "value": {
30
+ "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
31
+ }
32
+ },
33
+ "condition_id": "master_munger.capital_structure_readable",
34
+ "on_false": {
35
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
36
+ "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
37
+ },
38
+ "on_uncomputable": {
39
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
40
+ "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
41
+ },
42
+ "source_ids": [
43
+ "proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"
44
+ ]
45
+ }
46
+ ]
6
47
  },
7
48
  "fact_gate": {
8
49
  "on_missing_critical": {
@@ -10,21 +51,88 @@
10
51
  "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
11
52
  }
12
53
  },
13
- "hard_vetoes": [],
54
+ "hard_vetoes": [
55
+ {
56
+ "condition": {
57
+ "conditions": [
58
+ {
59
+ "left": {
60
+ "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
61
+ },
62
+ "op": "gt",
63
+ "right": {
64
+ "literal": 1
65
+ }
66
+ },
67
+ {
68
+ "left": {
69
+ "output_id": "risk.debt_service_cushion.master_munger"
70
+ },
71
+ "op": "lt",
72
+ "right": {
73
+ "literal": 2
74
+ }
75
+ }
76
+ ],
77
+ "op": "all"
78
+ },
79
+ "on_trigger": {
80
+ "common_stance": "opposed",
81
+ "native_state": "provisional_fatal_path"
82
+ },
83
+ "on_uncomputable": {
84
+ "action": "abstain",
85
+ "decision": {
86
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
87
+ "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
88
+ }
89
+ },
90
+ "source_ids": [
91
+ "proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"
92
+ ],
93
+ "veto_id": "master_munger.coupled_debt_failure"
94
+ },
95
+ {
96
+ "condition": {
97
+ "left": {
98
+ "output_id": "accounting.reported_earnings_cash_gap.master_munger"
99
+ },
100
+ "op": "lt",
101
+ "right": {
102
+ "literal": -0.5
103
+ }
104
+ },
105
+ "on_trigger": {
106
+ "common_stance": "opposed",
107
+ "native_state": "provisional_fatal_path"
108
+ },
109
+ "on_uncomputable": {
110
+ "action": "abstain",
111
+ "decision": {
112
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
113
+ "native_state": "provisional_out_of_scope"
114
+ }
115
+ },
116
+ "source_ids": [
117
+ "proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"
118
+ ],
119
+ "veto_id": "master_munger.reported_earnings_are_not_cash"
120
+ }
121
+ ],
14
122
  "native_decision_schema": "failure_path_verdict_v1",
15
123
  "native_output_fields": [
16
124
  {
17
125
  "field": "metric_1",
18
126
  "on_missing": "fail",
19
127
  "value": {
20
- "output_id": "governance.incentive_structure"
128
+ "output_id": "accounting.reported_earnings_cash_gap.master_munger"
21
129
  }
22
130
  },
23
131
  {
24
132
  "field": "metric_2",
25
133
  "on_missing": "fail",
26
134
  "value": {
27
- "output_id": "risk.failure_paths"
135
+ "output_id": "risk.debt_service_cushion.master_munger"
28
136
  }
29
137
  }
30
138
  ],
@@ -45,21 +153,21 @@
45
153
  },
46
154
  {
47
155
  "decision": {
48
- "common_stance": "opposed",
49
- "native_state": "provisional_no_fatal_path_found"
156
+ "common_stance": "cautious",
157
+ "native_state": "provisional_monitor"
50
158
  },
51
159
  "min_ratio": 0.5
52
160
  },
53
161
  {
54
162
  "decision": {
55
- "common_stance": "cautious",
56
- "native_state": "provisional_monitor"
163
+ "common_stance": "constructive",
164
+ "native_state": "provisional_no_fatal_path_found"
57
165
  },
58
166
  "min_ratio": 1
59
167
  }
60
168
  ],
61
169
  "scoring": {
62
- "max_score": 2,
170
+ "max_score": 3,
63
171
  "min_coverage": 1,
64
172
  "on_insufficient_coverage": {
65
173
  "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
@@ -69,16 +177,16 @@
69
177
  {
70
178
  "condition": {
71
179
  "left": {
72
- "output_id": "governance.incentive_structure"
180
+ "output_id": "accounting.reported_earnings_cash_gap.master_munger"
73
181
  },
74
- "op": "gt",
182
+ "op": "gte",
75
183
  "right": {
76
184
  "literal": 0
77
185
  }
78
186
  },
79
187
  "coverage_weight": 1,
80
188
  "points": 1,
81
- "rule_id": "proxy_score_1",
189
+ "rule_id": "munger_earnings_arrive_as_cash",
82
190
  "source_ids": [
83
191
  "proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"
84
192
  ]
@@ -86,16 +194,33 @@
86
194
  {
87
195
  "condition": {
88
196
  "left": {
89
- "output_id": "risk.failure_paths"
197
+ "output_id": "risk.debt_service_cushion.master_munger"
90
198
  },
91
- "op": "gt",
199
+ "op": "gte",
92
200
  "right": {
93
- "literal": 0
201
+ "literal": 4
202
+ }
203
+ },
204
+ "coverage_weight": 1,
205
+ "points": 1,
206
+ "rule_id": "munger_debt_service_has_a_cushion",
207
+ "source_ids": [
208
+ "proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"
209
+ ]
210
+ },
211
+ {
212
+ "condition": {
213
+ "left": {
214
+ "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
215
+ },
216
+ "op": "lte",
217
+ "right": {
218
+ "literal": 1
94
219
  }
95
220
  },
96
221
  "coverage_weight": 1,
97
222
  "points": 1,
98
- "rule_id": "proxy_score_2",
223
+ "rule_id": "munger_no_leverage_dependency",
99
224
  "source_ids": [
100
225
  "proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"
101
226
  ]
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
1
1
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Invert the thesis, map permanent-loss paths, audit incentives and test coupled risks using cross-disciplinary causal models.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_1","source_ids":["proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"]}
2
- {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Map compensation and control rights to potentially destructive operating choices.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"]}
3
- {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Model interacting failure paths and permanent-loss severity.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"]}
2
+ {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"The accounting failure path, measured as a distance rather than a level. Operating cash flow equal to reported net income is a gap of zero; everything below that is the part of the earnings that exists only on the income statement.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"]}
3
+ {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"The debt failure path, measured the same way. One times coverage is not a safety threshold, it is the point of failure itself -- the interest bill consuming the operating earnings whole -- so the useful number is the distance from it.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"]}
4
4
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject when incentives reward a documented path to permanent business damage.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_4","source_ids":["proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"]}
5
5
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject when several required assumptions fail through one shared cause.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_5","source_ids":["proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"]}
6
6
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject when a plausible failure path creates unbounded permanent loss.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_6","source_ids":["proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129"]}
@@ -16,14 +16,18 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "native_decision_schema": "failure_path_verdict_v1",
18
18
  "optional_fact_types": [
19
+ "financial.incremental_return_on_capital",
20
+ "financial.leverage",
21
+ "governance.incentive_structure",
22
+ "risk.failure_paths",
19
23
  "risk.permanent_loss",
20
24
  "business.complexity",
21
25
  "capital_allocation.history",
22
26
  "decision.coupled_assumptions"
23
27
  ],
24
28
  "required_fact_types": [
25
- "governance.incentive_structure",
26
- "risk.failure_paths"
29
+ "accounting.cash_conversion",
30
+ "financial.interest_coverage"
27
31
  ]
28
32
  },
29
33
  "components": {
@@ -44,8 +48,8 @@
44
48
  "computation": {
45
49
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
46
50
  "pipeline": [
47
- "master_munger.incentive_map",
48
- "master_munger.failure_path_graph"
51
+ "master_munger.reported_earnings_cash_gap",
52
+ "master_munger.debt_service_cushion"
49
53
  ]
50
54
  },
51
55
  "decision": {
@@ -53,8 +57,8 @@
53
57
  "common_projection": "common_stance_v1",
54
58
  "confidence_calibrator": null,
55
59
  "eligibility": [
56
- "governance.incentive_structure",
57
- "risk.failure_paths"
60
+ "accounting.cash_conversion",
61
+ "financial.interest_coverage"
58
62
  ],
59
63
  "hard_vetoes": [
60
64
  "master_munger.fatal_incentive",
@@ -77,11 +81,15 @@
77
81
  "maturity": "operator_lens",
78
82
  "operator_label": {
79
83
  "en": "Munger Lens Provisional Operator Lens",
84
+ "ja": "Munger Lens 暫定オペレーター・レンズ",
85
+ "ko": "Munger Lens 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈",
80
86
  "zh": "芒格视角临时操作视角"
81
87
  },
82
88
  "persona_id": "master_munger",
83
89
  "public_label": {
84
90
  "en": "Munger Lens Solo Test",
91
+ "ja": "Munger Lens 単独テスト",
92
+ "ko": "Munger Lens 단독 테스트",
85
93
  "zh": "芒格视角单人测试"
86
94
  },
87
95
  "source_cutoff": "2026-07-27"
@@ -92,7 +100,7 @@
92
100
  "leak_rule": "public_at <= as_of AND memory_created_at <= as_of",
93
101
  "postmortem_horizon_days": 90
94
102
  },
95
- "pack_version": "0.9.2",
103
+ "pack_version": "0.9.4",
96
104
  "research": {
97
105
  "mandatory_disconfirming_queries": [
98
106
  "Reject when incentives reward a documented path to permanent business damage.",
@@ -109,16 +117,22 @@
109
117
  "schema_version": 3,
110
118
  "selection": {
111
119
  "best_for": {
112
- "en": "Testing deterministic behavior in business_quality, incentives, failure_analysis, capital_allocation",
113
- "zh": "用于测试确定性行为:business_quality、incentives、failure_analysis、capital_allocation"
120
+ "en": "Business quality, incentives, failure analysis, and capital allocation.",
121
+ "ja": "事業の質、インセンティブ、失敗分析、資本配分。",
122
+ "ko": "사업의 질, 유인 구조, 실패 분석, 자본 배분.",
123
+ "zh": "商业质量、激励机制、失败分析与资本配置。"
114
124
  },
115
125
  "identity": {
116
126
  "en": "Munger Lens; project-derived and not human reviewed",
127
+ "ja": "Munger Lens。プロジェクト派生で、方法帰属について人による審査を受けていない暫定オペレーター・レンズ。本人の発言や現在の見解ではない。",
128
+ "ko": "Munger Lens. 프로젝트에서 파생되었고 방법 귀속에 대한 인적 심사를 거치지 않은 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈다. 본인의 발언이나 현재 견해가 아니다.",
117
129
  "zh": "芒格视角;项目派生、未经人工审定"
118
130
  },
119
131
  "method": {
120
132
  "en": "Invert the thesis, map permanent-loss paths, audit incentives and test coupled risks using cross-disciplinary causal models.",
121
- "zh": "Invert the thesis, map permanent-loss paths, audit incentives and test coupled risks using cross-disciplinary causal models."
133
+ "ja": "投資仮説を逆から検討し、永久損失に至る経路を洗い出し、インセンティブを監査し、分野横断的な因果モデルで複合リスクを検証する。",
134
+ "ko": "투자 가설을 거꾸로 검토하고 영구 손실 경로를 도식화하며, 유인을 점검하고 여러 학문 분야의 인과 모델로 결합 위험을 검증한다.",
135
+ "zh": "从激励、复杂性和永久损失路径出发,优先寻找必须放弃的原因。"
122
136
  }
123
137
  },
124
138
  "voice": {
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "experiment_pass_count": 0,
18
18
  "formula_approval_binding_count": 0,
19
- "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:7265b10a67bd0437af02572176793ef0b8529e48437edc5a2e0b1b1b9fbe73d0",
19
+ "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:fc8afd469d9cafccccc4221622ccde5061167c538ab6472eecaaf65efce5461b",
20
20
  "method_model_eligible": false,
21
21
  "native_states": [
22
22
  "provisional_out_of_scope",
@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@
26
26
  ],
27
27
  "persona_id": "master_munger",
28
28
  "planned_tool_ids": [
29
- "master_munger.incentive_map",
30
- "master_munger.failure_path_graph"
29
+ "master_munger.reported_earnings_cash_gap",
30
+ "master_munger.debt_service_cushion"
31
31
  ],
32
32
  "production_eligible": false,
33
33
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
@@ -1 +1 @@
1
- {"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:d9d77cc4b9f25734a28cec8e8b047e7e8806e8f555bb759b374039e3c609d04e","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_munger"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_munger","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}
1
+ {"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:bcb3837fef3f4b8009c4b4c84e05c3e167696d6535e0ff068f940d6b90cdc965","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_munger"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:d4d52af8b246f7129","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_munger","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}