alphacouncil-agent 0.9.2 → 1.0.0

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (493) hide show
  1. package/.claude/commands/alpha.md +22 -3
  2. package/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json +3 -3
  3. package/.claude-plugin/plugin.json +2 -2
  4. package/.codex-plugin/plugin.json +4 -4
  5. package/.grok/commands/alpha.md +22 -3
  6. package/.opencode/command/alpha.md +22 -3
  7. package/AGENTS.md +42 -4
  8. package/CHANGELOG.md +164 -0
  9. package/CLAUDE.md +59 -7
  10. package/README.ja.md +25 -11
  11. package/README.md +44 -12
  12. package/README.zh-CN.md +37 -12
  13. package/commands/alpha.md +22 -3
  14. package/data/authored/core-seats.mjs +808 -0
  15. package/data/authored/growth-seats.mjs +581 -0
  16. package/data/authored/index.mjs +114 -0
  17. package/data/authored/quant-seats.mjs +564 -0
  18. package/data/authored/value-seats.mjs +663 -0
  19. package/data/build-profile.v1.json +2 -1
  20. package/data/council-evaluation-protocol.v1.json +7 -4
  21. package/data/master-selector-method-locales.v1.mjs +296 -0
  22. package/data/persona-v3-ai-assisted-solo-profile.v1.json +2 -2
  23. package/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs +60 -3
  24. package/docs/INSTALL.md +43 -6
  25. package/docs/personas.md +2 -1
  26. package/docs/plans/v1.0-roadmap.md +487 -0
  27. package/docs/releases/v0.9.3.md +86 -0
  28. package/docs/releases/v0.9.4.md +79 -0
  29. package/docs/releases/v0.9.5.md +96 -0
  30. package/docs/releases/v1.0.0.md +164 -0
  31. package/docs/report-contract.md +75 -2
  32. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/a.json +13 -13
  33. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/b.json +2 -2
  34. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/c.json +2 -2
  35. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/d13.json +126 -126
  36. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/d26.json +274 -254
  37. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/e-d13.json +129 -129
  38. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/e-d26.json +277 -257
  39. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/h_ai_reference.json +278 -258
  40. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/simulation-input.json +7278 -556
  41. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/simulation-manifest.json +22 -22
  42. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_ackman/reviews/{change_value_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  43. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_ackman/reviews/{power_map.ai-review.json → owner_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  44. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_aschenbrenner/reviews/{compute_power_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  45. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_aschenbrenner/reviews/{timeline_reverse_valuation.ai-review.json → price_implied_cash_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  46. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_asness/reviews/{crowding_cost_stress.ai-review.json → nominal_earnings_yield_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  47. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_asness/reviews/{factor_decomposer.ai-review.json → real_earnings_yield_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  48. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_bogle/reviews/expected_return_over_long_bond.ai-review.json +277 -0
  49. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_bogle/reviews/fundamental_expected_return.ai-review.json +277 -0
  50. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_buffett/reviews/{incremental_returns.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  51. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_buffett/reviews/{owner_earnings_rebuilder.ai-review.json → owner_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  52. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_burry/reviews/{mispricing_carry.ai-review.json → net_current_asset_surplus_per_share.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  53. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_burry/reviews/{capital_structure_reader.ai-review.json → net_current_asset_value_per_share.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  54. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_cathie_wood/reviews/{cost_adoption_curve.ai-review.json → current_cash_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  55. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_cathie_wood/reviews/{capture_valuation_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  56. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_dalio/reviews/{debt_driver_stress.ai-review.json → policy_real_rate.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  57. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_dalio/reviews/{regime_classifier.ai-review.json → real_curve_slope.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  58. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_damodaran/reviews/{reverse_valuation.ai-review.json → implied_equity_risk_premium.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  59. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_damodaran/reviews/{story_dcf.ai-review.json → premium_versus_long_run_average.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  60. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_druckenmiller/reviews/{liquidity_revision_map.ai-review.json → liquidity_curve_impulse.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  61. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_druckenmiller/reviews/{inflection_payoff.ai-review.json → policy_real_rate.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  62. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_duan_yongping/reviews/{opportunity_cost.ai-review.json → five_year_opportunity_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  63. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_duan_yongping/reviews/{user_value_evidence.ai-review.json → margin_retention.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  64. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_fisher/reviews/{research_productivity.ai-review.json → margin_retention.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  65. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_fisher/reviews/{scuttlebutt_graph.ai-review.json → reinvestment_spread.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  66. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_forensic_short/reviews/{borrow_catalyst.ai-review.json → cash_conversion_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  67. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_forensic_short/reviews/{accounting_rebuilder.ai-review.json → cash_cover_of_leverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  68. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_graham/reviews/{asset_floor.ai-review.json → defensive_hurdle_base.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  69. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_graham/reviews/{normalized_earnings.ai-review.json → half_normalised_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  70. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_jhunjhunwala/reviews/{penetration_liquidity.ai-review.json → cash_quality_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  71. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_jhunjhunwala/reviews/{promoter_governance.ai-review.json → real_structural_growth.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  72. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_klarman/reviews/{recovery_waterfall.ai-review.json → downside_asset_coverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  73. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_klarman/reviews/{cash_catalyst_compare.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  74. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_li_lu/reviews/{promise_integrity_ledger.ai-review.json → cash_backed_decade_return.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  75. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_li_lu/reviews/{ten_year_return_bridge.ai-review.json → decade_return_over_long_bond.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  76. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_lynch/reviews/{story_numbers_check.ai-review.json → growth_justified_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  77. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_lynch/reviews/{category_classifier.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  78. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_marks/reviews/{cycle_temperature.ai-review.json → credit_cycle_position.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  79. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_marks/reviews/{implied_expectations.ai-review.json → equity_over_corporate_debt.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  80. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_munger/reviews/{failure_path_graph.ai-review.json → debt_service_cushion.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  81. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_munger/reviews/{incentive_map.ai-review.json → reported_earnings_cash_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  82. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_natenberg/reviews/{surface_builder.ai-review.json → normalised_skew.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  83. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_natenberg/reviews/{greeks_payoff.ai-review.json → round_trip_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  84. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_pabrai/reviews/{downside_floor.ai-review.json → downside_floor_coverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  85. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_pabrai/reviews/{discrete_payoff.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  86. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_simons/reviews/{oos_cost_test.ai-review.json → absolute_session_move.ai-review.json} +42 -42
  87. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_simons/reviews/{leakage_audit.ai-review.json → session_move_over_implied.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  88. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_sinclair/reviews/{realized_vol_forecast.ai-review.json → round_trip_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  89. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_sinclair/reviews/{net_edge_sizer.ai-review.json → volatility_per_unit_of_width.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  90. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_soros/reviews/{reversal_monitor.ai-review.json → credit_cycle_position.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  91. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_soros/reviews/{reflexivity_graph.ai-review.json → financing_burden.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  92. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_taleb/reviews/{tail_friction.ai-review.json → debt_service_cushion.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  93. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_taleb/reviews/{payoff_ruin.ai-review.json → normalised_skew.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  94. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_thorp/reviews/{edge_recalculator.ai-review.json → edge_per_unit_of_volatility.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  95. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_thorp/reviews/{fractional_kelly.ai-review.json → net_edge.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  96. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/review-manifest.json +288 -270
  97. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-adjudications/index.json +2 -2
  98. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-extractions/index.json +2 -2
  99. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-skeptic-reviews/index.json +2 -2
  100. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-source-prereviews/index.json +6 -2
  101. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/decision_policy.json +122 -11
  102. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  103. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/manifest.json +27 -10
  104. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  105. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  106. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/tools.json +56 -30
  107. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/decision_policy.json +101 -10
  108. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  109. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/manifest.json +26 -8
  110. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  111. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  112. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/tools.json +56 -30
  113. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/decision_policy.json +89 -10
  114. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  115. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/manifest.json +25 -8
  116. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  117. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  118. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/tools.json +56 -30
  119. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/counterfactuals.jsonl +0 -0
  120. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/decision_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  121. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/decision_policy.json +170 -0
  122. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/doctrine.jsonl +14 -0
  123. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/calibration_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  124. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/experiments.json +5 -0
  125. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/golden_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  126. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/pairwise_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  127. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/failures.jsonl +0 -0
  128. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/manifest.json +141 -0
  129. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/memory_policy.json +5 -0
  130. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/provisional-index.json +41 -0
  131. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/research_policy.json +11 -0
  132. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/sources.jsonl +1 -0
  133. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/tools.json +120 -0
  134. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/voice.en.md +7 -0
  135. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/voice.zh.md +7 -0
  136. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/decision_policy.json +102 -11
  137. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  138. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/manifest.json +24 -8
  139. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  140. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  141. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/tools.json +55 -29
  142. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/decision_policy.json +102 -12
  143. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  144. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/manifest.json +26 -10
  145. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  146. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  147. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/tools.json +56 -30
  148. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/decision_policy.json +74 -12
  149. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  150. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/manifest.json +26 -10
  151. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  152. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  153. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/tools.json +56 -30
  154. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/decision_policy.json +123 -16
  155. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  156. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/manifest.json +24 -8
  157. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  158. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  159. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/tools.json +56 -30
  160. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/decision_policy.json +58 -10
  161. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  162. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/manifest.json +23 -8
  163. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  164. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  165. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/tools.json +54 -28
  166. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/decision_policy.json +89 -10
  167. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  168. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/manifest.json +25 -8
  169. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  170. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  171. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/tools.json +55 -29
  172. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/decision_policy.json +138 -13
  173. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  174. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/manifest.json +31 -11
  175. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  176. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  177. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/tools.json +82 -30
  178. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/decision_policy.json +102 -11
  179. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  180. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/manifest.json +27 -10
  181. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  182. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  183. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/tools.json +58 -32
  184. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/decision_policy.json +93 -14
  185. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  186. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/manifest.json +20 -8
  187. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  188. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  189. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/tools.json +53 -27
  190. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/decision_policy.json +103 -12
  191. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  192. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/manifest.json +26 -8
  193. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  194. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  195. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/tools.json +67 -28
  196. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/decision_policy.json +77 -12
  197. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
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  410. package/schemas/persona-v3-ai-machine-simulation-v1.schema.json +1 -1
  411. package/schemas/persona-v3-build-spec-v1.schema.json +3 -3
  412. package/schemas/persona-v3-release-formula-review-evidence-v1.schema.json +3 -3
  413. package/schemas/persona-v3-release-manifest-v1.schema.json +6 -6
  414. package/schemas/persona-v3-release-source-review-evidence-v1.schema.json +3 -3
  415. package/schemas/persona-v3-tool-graph-v1.schema.json +1 -1
  416. package/schemas/persona-v3.schema.json +37 -2
  417. package/schemas/source-review-batch-v1.schema.json +9 -9
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  419. package/scripts/build-persona-v3-solo-test-packs.mjs +6 -8
  420. package/scripts/check-persona-v3-ga.mjs +1 -1
  421. package/scripts/check-persona-v3-production-candidates.mjs +1 -1
  422. package/scripts/compile-persona-v3-formulas.mjs +19 -18
  423. package/scripts/doctor.mjs +11 -9
  424. package/scripts/export-persona-source-review-batch.mjs +1 -1
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  426. package/scripts/lib/build-profile.mjs +24 -0
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  429. package/scripts/lib/packaged-host-parity.mjs +63 -8
  430. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-ai-assisted-solo-status.mjs +6 -4
  431. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-ai-formula-review.mjs +6 -5
  432. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-ai-machine-simulations.mjs +32 -4
  433. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-build-specs.mjs +3 -2
  434. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-draft-packs.mjs +2 -2
  435. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-formula-pipeline.mjs +11 -10
  436. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-production-candidates.mjs +10 -9
  437. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-solo-formula-pipeline.mjs +182 -16
  438. package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-solo-test-packs.mjs +143 -16
  439. package/scripts/package-smoke.mjs +32 -12
  440. package/scripts/report-persona-corpus-gaps.mjs +4 -1
  441. package/scripts/review-persona-v3-solo-formulas.mjs +12 -8
  442. package/scripts/run-tests.mjs +23 -2
  443. package/scripts/scaffold-persona-v3-staging.mjs +1 -1
  444. package/skills/agent-skills-governance/SKILL.md +8 -2
  445. package/skills/alphacouncil-agent/SKILL.md +60 -9
  446. package/skills/public-equity-investing/SKILL.md +17 -0
  447. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_ackman/provisional-derivations/change_value_bridge.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  448. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_ackman/provisional-derivations/power_map.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  449. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_aschenbrenner/provisional-derivations/compute_power_bridge.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  450. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_aschenbrenner/provisional-derivations/timeline_reverse_valuation.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  451. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_asness/provisional-derivations/crowding_cost_stress.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  452. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_asness/provisional-derivations/factor_decomposer.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  453. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_buffett/provisional-derivations/incremental_returns.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  454. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_buffett/provisional-derivations/owner_earnings_rebuilder.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  455. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_burry/provisional-derivations/capital_structure_reader.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  456. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_burry/provisional-derivations/mispricing_carry.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  457. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_cathie_wood/provisional-derivations/capture_valuation_bridge.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  458. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_cathie_wood/provisional-derivations/cost_adoption_curve.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  459. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_dalio/provisional-derivations/debt_driver_stress.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  460. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_dalio/provisional-derivations/regime_classifier.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  461. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_damodaran/provisional-derivations/story_dcf.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  462. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_druckenmiller/provisional-derivations/inflection_payoff.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  463. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_druckenmiller/provisional-derivations/liquidity_revision_map.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  464. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_duan_yongping/provisional-derivations/opportunity_cost.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  465. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_duan_yongping/provisional-derivations/user_value_evidence.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  466. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_fisher/provisional-derivations/research_productivity.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  467. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_fisher/provisional-derivations/scuttlebutt_graph.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  468. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_forensic_short/provisional-derivations/borrow_catalyst.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  469. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_graham/provisional-derivations/asset_floor.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  470. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_graham/provisional-derivations/normalized_earnings.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  471. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_jhunjhunwala/provisional-derivations/penetration_liquidity.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  472. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_jhunjhunwala/provisional-derivations/promoter_governance.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  473. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_klarman/provisional-derivations/cash_catalyst_compare.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  474. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_klarman/provisional-derivations/recovery_waterfall.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  475. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_li_lu/provisional-derivations/promise_integrity_ledger.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  476. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_li_lu/provisional-derivations/ten_year_return_bridge.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  477. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_lynch/provisional-derivations/category_classifier.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  478. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_lynch/provisional-derivations/story_numbers_check.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  479. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_marks/provisional-derivations/cycle_temperature.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  480. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_marks/provisional-derivations/implied_expectations.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  481. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_munger/provisional-derivations/failure_path_graph.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  482. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_munger/provisional-derivations/incentive_map.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  483. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_pabrai/provisional-derivations/discrete_payoff.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
  484. package/knowledge/solo-test/persona-v3-solo-test-formulas/master_pabrai/provisional-derivations/downside_floor.derived-proxy-evidence.json +0 -64
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@@ -16,6 +16,8 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "native_decision_schema": "out_of_sample_signal_v1",
18
18
  "optional_fact_types": [
19
+ "options.skew_25d",
20
+ "quant.sample_definition",
19
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  "quant.signal_values",
20
22
  "quant.out_of_sample_returns",
21
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  "quant.multiple_test_count",
@@ -24,7 +26,8 @@
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  "risk.drawdown"
25
27
  ],
26
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  "required_fact_types": [
27
- "quant.sample_definition"
29
+ "market.change_pct",
30
+ "options.implied_volatility"
28
31
  ]
29
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  },
30
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  "components": {
@@ -45,8 +48,8 @@
45
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  "computation": {
46
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  "dsl_version": "1.1",
47
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  "pipeline": [
48
- "master_simons.leakage_audit",
49
- "master_simons.oos_cost_test"
51
+ "master_simons.absolute_session_move",
52
+ "master_simons.session_move_over_implied"
50
53
  ]
51
54
  },
52
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  "decision": {
@@ -54,7 +57,8 @@
54
57
  "common_projection": "common_stance_v1",
55
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  "confidence_calibrator": null,
56
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  "eligibility": [
57
- "quant.sample_definition"
60
+ "market.change_pct",
61
+ "options.implied_volatility"
58
62
  ],
59
63
  "hard_vetoes": [
60
64
  "master_simons.lookahead",
@@ -77,11 +81,15 @@
77
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  "maturity": "operator_lens",
78
82
  "operator_label": {
79
83
  "en": "Simons Lens Provisional Operator Lens",
84
+ "ja": "Simons Lens 暫定オペレーター・レンズ",
85
+ "ko": "Simons Lens 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈",
80
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  "zh": "西蒙斯视角临时操作视角"
81
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  },
82
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  "persona_id": "master_simons",
83
89
  "public_label": {
84
90
  "en": "Simons Lens Solo Test",
91
+ "ja": "Simons Lens 単独テスト",
92
+ "ko": "Simons Lens 단독 테스트",
85
93
  "zh": "西蒙斯视角单人测试"
86
94
  },
87
95
  "source_cutoff": "2026-07-27"
@@ -92,7 +100,7 @@
92
100
  "leak_rule": "public_at <= as_of AND memory_created_at <= as_of",
93
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  "postmortem_horizon_days": 90
94
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  },
95
- "pack_version": "0.9.2",
103
+ "pack_version": "0.9.4",
96
104
  "research": {
97
105
  "mandatory_disconfirming_queries": [
98
106
  "Reject any result with unresolved future information in features or membership.",
@@ -109,16 +117,22 @@
109
117
  "schema_version": 3,
110
118
  "selection": {
111
119
  "best_for": {
112
- "en": "Testing deterministic behavior in systematic_signals, statistical_arbitrage, portfolio_research, execution_costs",
113
- "zh": "用于测试确定性行为:systematic_signals、statistical_arbitrage、portfolio_research、execution_costs"
120
+ "en": "Systematic signals, statistical arbitrage, portfolio research, and execution costs.",
121
+ "ja": "システマティック・シグナル、統計的裁定、ポートフォリオ研究、執行コスト。",
122
+ "ko": "체계적 신호, 통계적 차익거래, 포트폴리오 연구, 집행 비용.",
123
+ "zh": "系统化信号、统计套利、组合研究与执行成本。"
114
124
  },
115
125
  "identity": {
116
126
  "en": "Simons Lens; project-derived and not human reviewed",
127
+ "ja": "Simons Lens。プロジェクト派生で、方法帰属について人による審査を受けていない暫定オペレーター・レンズ。本人の発言や現在の見解ではない。",
128
+ "ko": "Simons Lens. 프로젝트에서 파생되었고 방법 귀속에 대한 인적 심사를 거치지 않은 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈다. 본인의 발언이나 현재 견해가 아니다.",
117
129
  "zh": "西蒙斯视角;项目派生、未经人工审定"
118
130
  },
119
131
  "method": {
120
132
  "en": "Admit only statistically testable signals that survive leakage controls, multiple testing, out-of-sample evaluation, turnover and trading costs.",
121
- "zh": "Admit only statistically testable signals that survive leakage controls, multiple testing, out-of-sample evaluation, turnover and trading costs."
133
+ "ja": "情報漏洩の統制、多重検定、サンプル外評価、回転率、取引コストを通過した、統計的に検証可能なシグナルだけを採用する。",
134
+ "ko": "정보 누출 통제, 다중 검정, 표본 외 평가, 회전율, 거래비용을 통과한 통계적으로 검증 가능한 신호만 채택한다.",
135
+ "zh": "优先检查样本量、样本外稳定性、多重检验、换手和交易成本。"
122
136
  }
123
137
  },
124
138
  "voice": {
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "experiment_pass_count": 0,
18
18
  "formula_approval_binding_count": 0,
19
- "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:7265b10a67bd0437af02572176793ef0b8529e48437edc5a2e0b1b1b9fbe73d0",
19
+ "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:fc8afd469d9cafccccc4221622ccde5061167c538ab6472eecaaf65efce5461b",
20
20
  "method_model_eligible": false,
21
21
  "native_states": [
22
22
  "provisional_invalid_test",
@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@
26
26
  ],
27
27
  "persona_id": "master_simons",
28
28
  "planned_tool_ids": [
29
- "master_simons.leakage_audit",
30
- "master_simons.oos_cost_test"
29
+ "master_simons.absolute_session_move",
30
+ "master_simons.session_move_over_implied"
31
31
  ],
32
32
  "production_eligible": false,
33
33
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
@@ -1 +1 @@
1
- {"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:5c87c7d65f23a93f138158345950afdb0170ad963f5b23bfa186a9924d7d774d","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_simons"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:640bd638960790aab","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_simons","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}
1
+ {"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:6df57c7a07f6d45decc48315ca7062ea98b6c91828a9a91faaf7f5334a448363","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_simons"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:640bd638960790aab","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_simons","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}
@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
1
1
  [
2
2
  {
3
3
  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
4
- "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:a900ed0f54e1f4bd095b9ffae85c323d144ea1fa4a01e1d9470d4816e7e36308",
5
- "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:0c451ec63612421c6fe99842f7626637dd90e3b3e8619257f60f4fca21bdc4e2",
6
- "derivation_spec_id": "master_simons.leakage_audit.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
4
+ "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:2d201abdb47012d24388a65f9c58601d2910df10f22b91e60491e1c13b88ffe2",
5
+ "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:ff6b81460c97e1e04f0c765d6018c6e4ad3239c764604a25ec932a6724a81035",
6
+ "derivation_spec_id": "master_simons.absolute_session_move.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
7
7
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
8
- "id": "master_simons.leakage_audit",
8
+ "id": "master_simons.absolute_session_move",
9
9
  "input_contracts": [
10
10
  {
11
11
  "on_missing": "fail",
@@ -14,44 +14,44 @@
14
14
  "basis": "instant",
15
15
  "window": null
16
16
  },
17
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
18
- "value_kind": "scalar"
17
+ "unit": "decimal",
18
+ "value_kind": "ratio"
19
19
  }
20
20
  ],
21
- "input_schema_hash": "sha256:0772cf6ee5c4697ca67588e3be5d00954c89d4ba146f1c99fe024b06a33caac7",
21
+ "input_schema_hash": "sha256:5b4f7b4cf01b116ad292bd24ac380e4a6f3c9c0493b2f8b3e91221143765a274",
22
22
  "inputs": [
23
23
  {
24
- "fact_id": "quant.sample_definition"
24
+ "fact_id": "market.change_pct"
25
25
  }
26
26
  ],
27
27
  "intended_use": "local_test_only",
28
- "kind": "transform",
28
+ "kind": "recomputation",
29
29
  "on_missing": "fail",
30
- "operation": "identity",
31
- "output_id": "quant.leakage_flags",
30
+ "operation": "abs",
31
+ "output_id": "market.absolute_session_move.master_simons",
32
32
  "output_period": {
33
33
  "alignment": "as_of",
34
34
  "basis": "instant",
35
35
  "window": null
36
36
  },
37
- "output_schema_hash": "sha256:79c132a8b4d8ef887293abcaa88844e7600e9607137476747eefc8a04535420c",
37
+ "output_schema_hash": "sha256:b378b29f5fd24e8cab440b9ca454ca790f0911cc534622e625d97b8f2a0c4bb3",
38
38
  "production_eligible": false,
39
39
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
40
40
  "schema_version": 1,
41
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  "source_ids": [
42
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  "proxy:640bd638960790aab"
43
43
  ],
44
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
45
- "value_kind": "scalar",
46
- "version": "0.1.0"
44
+ "unit": "decimal",
45
+ "value_kind": "ratio",
46
+ "version": "0.2.0"
47
47
  },
48
48
  {
49
49
  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
50
- "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:078e355a7a7a7055a4bd6cbcd40853664e7d740e556e803012e2f0e5ab65b3bf",
51
- "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:50ebe908b77b3ed2e0cfd7664189a2fd5cfffb1d267a07e186d9da1baf450dc5",
52
- "derivation_spec_id": "master_simons.oos_cost_test.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
50
+ "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:84fad3eb5760b2c9d658505d852e674f61ee725cdb0a66a6b7f25913608b0758",
51
+ "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:e361609896735f3499bce98748b9d23217791003e4e47da707cc07e23f9acc94",
52
+ "derivation_spec_id": "master_simons.session_move_over_implied.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
53
53
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
54
- "id": "master_simons.oos_cost_test",
54
+ "id": "master_simons.session_move_over_implied",
55
55
  "input_contracts": [
56
56
  {
57
57
  "on_missing": "fail",
@@ -60,35 +60,48 @@
60
60
  "basis": "instant",
61
61
  "window": null
62
62
  },
63
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
64
- "value_kind": "scalar"
63
+ "unit": "decimal",
64
+ "value_kind": "ratio"
65
+ },
66
+ {
67
+ "on_missing": "fail",
68
+ "period": {
69
+ "alignment": "as_of",
70
+ "basis": "instant",
71
+ "window": null
72
+ },
73
+ "unit": "decimal_annualized_volatility",
74
+ "value_kind": "ratio"
65
75
  }
66
76
  ],
67
- "input_schema_hash": "sha256:e781ffb053b181a20f10404c45768d3e8b73a850d2471cd584bea80011751510",
77
+ "input_schema_hash": "sha256:88636c697efa548ca6ed11678ca66245d4d57c53824e283ebc62146412bcc4f3",
68
78
  "inputs": [
69
79
  {
70
- "fact_id": "quant.sample_definition"
80
+ "output_id": "market.absolute_session_move.master_simons"
81
+ },
82
+ {
83
+ "fact_id": "options.implied_volatility"
71
84
  }
72
85
  ],
73
86
  "intended_use": "local_test_only",
74
- "kind": "transform",
87
+ "kind": "recomputation",
75
88
  "on_missing": "fail",
76
- "operation": "identity",
77
- "output_id": "quant.out_of_sample_returns",
89
+ "operation": "divide",
90
+ "output_id": "market.session_move_over_implied.master_simons",
78
91
  "output_period": {
79
92
  "alignment": "as_of",
80
93
  "basis": "instant",
81
94
  "window": null
82
95
  },
83
- "output_schema_hash": "sha256:0413b7e4ab51dedba541ce92cb5a837742980b7d204663a98d1ce778b77d01bb",
96
+ "output_schema_hash": "sha256:cc53eaf4ca42fae378fa6905dc235c10527d1c16f526229f8257b47a75b4915e",
84
97
  "production_eligible": false,
85
98
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
86
99
  "schema_version": 1,
87
100
  "source_ids": [
88
101
  "proxy:640bd638960790aab"
89
102
  ],
90
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
91
- "value_kind": "scalar",
92
- "version": "0.1.0"
103
+ "unit": "decimal",
104
+ "value_kind": "ratio",
105
+ "version": "0.2.0"
93
106
  }
94
107
  ]
@@ -2,7 +2,28 @@
2
2
  "abstention_policy": "fail_closed",
3
3
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
4
4
  "eligibility": {
5
- "all": []
5
+ "all": [
6
+ {
7
+ "condition": {
8
+ "op": "exists",
9
+ "value": {
10
+ "fact_id": "options.skew_25d"
11
+ }
12
+ },
13
+ "condition_id": "master_sinclair.surface_has_a_shape",
14
+ "on_false": {
15
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
16
+ "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_inputs"
17
+ },
18
+ "on_uncomputable": {
19
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
20
+ "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_inputs"
21
+ },
22
+ "source_ids": [
23
+ "proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"
24
+ ]
25
+ }
26
+ ]
6
27
  },
7
28
  "fact_gate": {
8
29
  "on_missing_critical": {
@@ -10,21 +31,48 @@
10
31
  "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_inputs"
11
32
  }
12
33
  },
13
- "hard_vetoes": [],
34
+ "hard_vetoes": [
35
+ {
36
+ "condition": {
37
+ "left": {
38
+ "output_id": "execution.round_trip_cost.master_sinclair"
39
+ },
40
+ "op": "gte",
41
+ "right": {
42
+ "fact_id": "options.implied_volatility"
43
+ }
44
+ },
45
+ "on_trigger": {
46
+ "common_stance": "opposed",
47
+ "native_state": "provisional_no_net_edge"
48
+ },
49
+ "on_uncomputable": {
50
+ "action": "abstain",
51
+ "decision": {
52
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
53
+ "native_state": "provisional_insufficient_inputs"
54
+ }
55
+ },
56
+ "source_ids": [
57
+ "proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"
58
+ ],
59
+ "veto_id": "master_sinclair.edge_dies_in_the_spread"
60
+ }
61
+ ],
14
62
  "native_decision_schema": "volatility_edge_v1",
15
63
  "native_output_fields": [
16
64
  {
17
65
  "field": "metric_1",
18
66
  "on_missing": "fail",
19
67
  "value": {
20
- "output_id": "options.realized_volatility_forecast"
68
+ "output_id": "execution.round_trip_cost.master_sinclair"
21
69
  }
22
70
  },
23
71
  {
24
72
  "field": "metric_2",
25
73
  "on_missing": "fail",
26
74
  "value": {
27
- "output_id": "options.volatility_risk_premium"
75
+ "output_id": "options.volatility_per_unit_of_width.master_sinclair"
28
76
  }
29
77
  }
30
78
  ],
@@ -52,7 +100,7 @@
52
100
  },
53
101
  {
54
102
  "decision": {
55
- "common_stance": "cautious",
103
+ "common_stance": "constructive",
56
104
  "native_state": "provisional_executable_edge"
57
105
  },
58
106
  "min_ratio": 1
@@ -69,16 +117,16 @@
69
117
  {
70
118
  "condition": {
71
119
  "left": {
72
- "output_id": "options.realized_volatility_forecast"
120
+ "output_id": "options.volatility_per_unit_of_width.master_sinclair"
73
121
  },
74
- "op": "gt",
122
+ "op": "gte",
75
123
  "right": {
76
- "literal": 0
124
+ "literal": 20
77
125
  }
78
126
  },
79
127
  "coverage_weight": 1,
80
128
  "points": 1,
81
- "rule_id": "proxy_score_1",
129
+ "rule_id": "sinclair_round_trip_leaves_room_for_an_edge",
82
130
  "source_ids": [
83
131
  "proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"
84
132
  ]
@@ -86,7 +134,7 @@
86
134
  {
87
135
  "condition": {
88
136
  "left": {
89
- "output_id": "options.volatility_risk_premium"
137
+ "fact_id": "options.skew_25d"
90
138
  },
91
139
  "op": "gt",
92
140
  "right": {
@@ -95,7 +143,7 @@
95
143
  },
96
144
  "coverage_weight": 1,
97
145
  "points": 1,
98
- "rule_id": "proxy_score_2",
146
+ "rule_id": "sinclair_premium_sits_in_the_puts",
99
147
  "source_ids": [
100
148
  "proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"
101
149
  ]
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
1
1
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Forecast realized volatility, compare it with implied volatility, subtract spreads and slippage, and size only a robust executable edge.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_1","source_ids":["proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"]}
2
- {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Produce a versioned realized-volatility forecast with out-of-sample error.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"]}
3
- {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Subtract executable costs and size the residual volatility edge conservatively.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"]}
2
+ {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"The width is crossed twice, once to get the position on and once to get it off. Every edge has to clear the round trip, and the round trip is where most of the volatility edges he examines stop existing.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"]}
3
+ {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"How many times the quoted width fits inside the volatility being traded. The gross edge is some fraction of that volatility and is not computable from these facts, so the number of widths available is the strongest statement this pack supports about whether any residual edge could survive execution.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"]}
4
4
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject an edge based on an unvalidated realized-volatility forecast.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_4","source_ids":["proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"]}
5
5
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject when spread and slippage erase the gross volatility difference.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_5","source_ids":["proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"]}
6
6
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject when forecast error is material relative to estimated net edge.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_6","source_ids":["proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c"]}
@@ -16,15 +16,16 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "native_decision_schema": "volatility_edge_v1",
18
18
  "optional_fact_types": [
19
- "options.implied_volatility",
19
+ "options.skew_25d",
20
+ "options.realized_volatility_forecast",
20
21
  "options.volatility_risk_premium",
21
- "execution.bid_ask",
22
22
  "execution.slippage",
23
23
  "risk.forecast_error",
24
24
  "position.fraction"
25
25
  ],
26
26
  "required_fact_types": [
27
- "options.realized_volatility_forecast"
27
+ "execution.bid_ask",
28
+ "options.implied_volatility"
28
29
  ]
29
30
  },
30
31
  "components": {
@@ -45,8 +46,8 @@
45
46
  "computation": {
46
47
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
47
48
  "pipeline": [
48
- "master_sinclair.realized_vol_forecast",
49
- "master_sinclair.net_edge_sizer"
49
+ "master_sinclair.round_trip_cost",
50
+ "master_sinclair.volatility_per_unit_of_width"
50
51
  ]
51
52
  },
52
53
  "decision": {
@@ -54,7 +55,8 @@
54
55
  "common_projection": "common_stance_v1",
55
56
  "confidence_calibrator": null,
56
57
  "eligibility": [
57
- "options.realized_volatility_forecast"
58
+ "execution.bid_ask",
59
+ "options.implied_volatility"
58
60
  ],
59
61
  "hard_vetoes": [
60
62
  "master_sinclair.no_oos_forecast",
@@ -77,11 +79,15 @@
77
79
  "maturity": "operator_lens",
78
80
  "operator_label": {
79
81
  "en": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution) Provisional Operator Lens",
82
+ "ja": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution) 暫定オペレーター・レンズ",
83
+ "ko": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution) 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈",
80
84
  "zh": "辛克莱视角(波动率交易与执行)临时操作视角"
81
85
  },
82
86
  "persona_id": "master_sinclair",
83
87
  "public_label": {
84
88
  "en": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution) Solo Test",
89
+ "ja": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution) 単独テスト",
90
+ "ko": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution) 단독 테스트",
85
91
  "zh": "辛克莱视角(波动率交易与执行)单人测试"
86
92
  },
87
93
  "source_cutoff": "2026-07-27"
@@ -92,7 +98,7 @@
92
98
  "leak_rule": "public_at <= as_of AND memory_created_at <= as_of",
93
99
  "postmortem_horizon_days": 90
94
100
  },
95
- "pack_version": "0.9.2",
101
+ "pack_version": "0.9.4",
96
102
  "research": {
97
103
  "mandatory_disconfirming_queries": [
98
104
  "Reject an edge based on an unvalidated realized-volatility forecast.",
@@ -109,16 +115,22 @@
109
115
  "schema_version": 3,
110
116
  "selection": {
111
117
  "best_for": {
112
- "en": "Testing deterministic behavior in volatility_forecasting, options_execution, edge_measurement, position_sizing",
113
- "zh": "用于测试确定性行为:volatility_forecasting、options_execution、edge_measurement、position_sizing"
118
+ "en": "Volatility forecasting, options execution, edge measurement, and position sizing.",
119
+ "ja": "ボラティリティ予測、オプション執行、優位性の測定、ポジション量。",
120
+ "ko": "변동성 예측, 옵션 집행, 우위 측정, 포지션 규모 결정.",
121
+ "zh": "波动率预测、期权执行、优势度量与仓位管理。"
114
122
  },
115
123
  "identity": {
116
124
  "en": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution); project-derived and not human reviewed",
125
+ "ja": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution)。プロジェクト派生で、方法帰属について人による審査を受けていない暫定オペレーター・レンズ。本人の発言や現在の見解ではない。",
126
+ "ko": "Sinclair Lens (Volatility Trading and Execution). 프로젝트에서 파생되었고 방법 귀속에 대한 인적 심사를 거치지 않은 임시 오퍼레이터 렌즈다. 본인의 발언이나 현재 견해가 아니다.",
117
127
  "zh": "辛克莱视角(波动率交易与执行);项目派生、未经人工审定"
118
128
  },
119
129
  "method": {
120
130
  "en": "Forecast realized volatility, compare it with implied volatility, subtract spreads and slippage, and size only a robust executable edge.",
121
- "zh": "Forecast realized volatility, compare it with implied volatility, subtract spreads and slippage, and size only a robust executable edge."
131
+ "ja": "実現ボラティリティを予測してインプライド・ボラティリティと比較し、スプレッドとスリッページを差し引いた後も堅牢で実行可能な優位性だけに応じてポジションを決める。",
132
+ "ko": "실현변동성을 예측해 내재변동성과 비교하고, 스프레드와 슬리피지를 차감한 뒤에도 견고하고 실행 가능한 우위에만 포지션 규모를 배정한다.",
133
+ "zh": "比较实现波动预测与隐含波动,扣除价差、滑点和仓位风险后判断优势是否仍存在。"
122
134
  }
123
135
  },
124
136
  "voice": {
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "experiment_pass_count": 0,
18
18
  "formula_approval_binding_count": 0,
19
- "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:7265b10a67bd0437af02572176793ef0b8529e48437edc5a2e0b1b1b9fbe73d0",
19
+ "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:fc8afd469d9cafccccc4221622ccde5061167c538ab6472eecaaf65efce5461b",
20
20
  "method_model_eligible": false,
21
21
  "native_states": [
22
22
  "provisional_insufficient_inputs",
@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@
26
26
  ],
27
27
  "persona_id": "master_sinclair",
28
28
  "planned_tool_ids": [
29
- "master_sinclair.realized_vol_forecast",
30
- "master_sinclair.net_edge_sizer"
29
+ "master_sinclair.round_trip_cost",
30
+ "master_sinclair.volatility_per_unit_of_width"
31
31
  ],
32
32
  "production_eligible": false,
33
33
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
@@ -1 +1 @@
1
- {"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:f9ccc38c47177fcd2ed16c94711404d2f047b2ef20fc825efa25253ae1a306e5","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_sinclair"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_sinclair","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}
1
+ {"adjudication":{"notes":"No human review, no named-method attribution, no production effect.","reviewer_ids":[],"status":"pending"},"author":"AlphaCouncil project build specification","content_hash":"sha256:e5acb0972c01c00368960d59ceefea938f5482863f3b3d612aee74b156a3d527","grade":"E","known_at":"2026-07-27","locator":{"section":"master_sinclair"},"public_at":"2026-07-27","published_at":"2026-07-27","retrieved_at":"2026-07-27","schema_version":1,"source_id":"proxy:514255b4bf1696d6c","source_kind":"derived_proxy","summary":"Project-authored provisional proxy used only to exercise the deterministic solo-test build; it is not source approval or method attribution.","supports":["solo_test_structure","deterministic_execution_only"],"title":"Provisional project-derived method hypothesis for master_sinclair","url":"https://github.com/Zhao73/alphacouncil-agent/blob/main/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs"}