@ak--47/dungeon-master 1.5.4 → 1.6.1

package/dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
+-- ============================================================
+-- marketplace.sql — human-eyeball inspection queries (v1.6)
+-- ============================================================
+-- Mirrors the story reads in marketplace.js `stories`. Run after:
+--   node scripts/verify-runner.mjs dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.js verify-marketplace
+--
+-- Derivation notes:
+-- - H1 uses the hook's exact cutoff (time > 2026-02-15T00:00:00Z), not
+--   date_diff day bucketing — day-45 events straddle the boundary.
+-- - H3/H8 read purchases-per-add-to-cart ratio-of-ratios: normalizing by
+--   carts cancels the persona activity gap (power 5.0x vs casual 1.5x
+--   eventMultiplier); the residual is the engineered clone lift (H3
+--   x1.65) or retention edge (H8 4/3).
+-- - H4's clean read is per-user purchases: raw category counts carry the
+--   engine's seeded favored-index popularity skew.
+-- - H5's fast/slow split replicates the hook's charCode hash:
+--   (ascii(first char) + ascii(last char)) % 5 < 2.
+-- - H9 is NOT visible in cross-event SQL — funnel-post scales gaps within
+--   one Browse-to-Purchase instance per user, invisible to MIN→MIN
+--   queries over the full event history. See the emulator timeToConvert
+--   assertion in marketplace.js stories (48-HOUR window, matching the
+--   funnel's timeToConvert; longer windows admit cross-instance chains).
+-- - H10's cohort is total message-sent count — exactly reproducible from
+--   output because H10 runs last and nothing after it drops messages.
+
+-- Hook 1: FEE CHANGE IMPACT — avg listing_fee steps ~x1.26 after day 45
+-- (x1.3 knob, Math.floor shaves ~4%)
+SELECT (time::TIMESTAMP > TIMESTAMP '2026-02-15 00:00:00') AS post_d45,
+  COUNT(*) AS n, ROUND(AVG(listing_fee), 2) AS avg_fee
+FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true)
+WHERE event = 'listing created' AND listing_fee IS NOT NULL
+GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY post_d45;
+
+-- Hook 2: WEEKEND SHOPPING SURGE — Sat/Sun avg total_amount ~1.21x weekday
+SELECT
+  CASE WHEN dayofweek(time::TIMESTAMP) IN (0, 6) THEN 'weekend' ELSE 'weekday' END AS bucket,
+  COUNT(*) AS n, ROUND(AVG(total_amount), 1) AS avg_amount
+FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true)
+WHERE event = 'purchase completed' AND total_amount IS NOT NULL
+GROUP BY (CASE WHEN dayofweek(time::TIMESTAMP) IN (0, 6) THEN 'weekend' ELSE 'weekday' END);
+
+-- Hook 3 + Hook 8: purchases-per-cart by segment. Power/casual RoR ~1.67
+-- (H3 x1.65 clones); frequent/casual RoR ~1.33 (H8 4/3 retention edge).
+-- Raw purchases/user power/casual ~6x = clone lift x activity gap.
+WITH pu AS (
+  SELECT e.user_id::VARCHAR AS uid, ANY_VALUE(u.segment) AS segment,
+    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE e.event = 'purchase completed') AS purch,
+    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE e.event = 'add to cart') AS carts
+  FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true) e
+  JOIN read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-USERS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true) u
+    ON e.user_id::VARCHAR = u.distinct_id::VARCHAR
+  GROUP BY 1
+)
+SELECT segment, COUNT(*) AS users,
+  ROUND(AVG(purch), 3) AS purch_pu,
+  ROUND(SUM(purch)::DOUBLE / NULLIF(SUM(carts), 0), 4) AS purch_per_cart
+FROM pu GROUP BY segment ORDER BY purch_per_cart DESC;
+
+-- Hook 4: ELECTRONICS CATEGORY LIFT — elec-searchers ~1.22x purchases/user
+WITH pu AS (
+  SELECT user_id::VARCHAR AS uid,
+    BOOL_OR(event = 'item searched' AND category = 'electronics') AS elec,
+    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'purchase completed') AS purch
+  FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true)
+  GROUP BY 1
+)
+SELECT elec, COUNT(*) AS users, ROUND(AVG(purch), 3) AS purch_pu
+FROM pu GROUP BY elec ORDER BY elec;
+
+-- Hook 5: RESPONSE TIME → CONVERSION — fast hash cohort ~10x accepts/user;
+-- avg response_time_hours ~2.25h vs ~22h on message sent
+WITH pu AS (
+  SELECT user_id::VARCHAR AS uid,
+    (ascii(substr(user_id::VARCHAR, 1, 1)) + ascii(substr(user_id::VARCHAR, -1, 1))) % 5 < 2 AS is_fast,
+    BOOL_OR(event = 'message sent') AS has_msg,
+    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'offer accepted') AS accepts
+  FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true)
+  GROUP BY 1
+)
+SELECT is_fast, COUNT(*) AS users, ROUND(AVG(accepts), 3) AS accepts_pu
+FROM pu WHERE has_msg GROUP BY is_fast ORDER BY is_fast;
+
+SELECT
+  (ascii(substr(user_id::VARCHAR, 1, 1)) + ascii(substr(user_id::VARCHAR, -1, 1))) % 5 < 2 AS is_fast,
+  COUNT(*) AS n, ROUND(AVG(response_time_hours), 2) AS avg_rt
+FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true)
+WHERE event = 'message sent' AND response_time_hours IS NOT NULL
+GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY is_fast;
+
+-- Hook 6: NEW SELLER CHURN — new_seller post/pre(+14d) event ratio ~0.5x rest
+-- (50% drop stacked on the persona's 28-day activeWindow)
+WITH pu AS (
+  SELECT e.user_id::VARCHAR AS uid, ANY_VALUE(u.segment) AS segment, MIN(e.time::TIMESTAMP) AS t0
+  FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true) e
+  JOIN read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-USERS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true) u
+    ON e.user_id::VARCHAR = u.distinct_id::VARCHAR
+  GROUP BY 1
+), flags AS (
+  SELECT p.uid, p.segment,
+    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE e.time::TIMESTAMP <= p.t0 + INTERVAL 14 DAY) AS pre,
+    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE e.time::TIMESTAMP > p.t0 + INTERVAL 14 DAY) AS post
+  FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true) e
+  JOIN pu p ON e.user_id::VARCHAR = p.uid
+  GROUP BY 1, 2
+)
+SELECT (segment = 'new_seller') AS is_new_seller, COUNT(*) AS users,
+  ROUND(AVG(post::DOUBLE / NULLIF(pre, 0)), 4) AS avg_post_pre
+FROM flags WHERE pre > 0
+GROUP BY (segment = 'new_seller') ORDER BY is_new_seller;
+
+-- Hook 7: POWER SELLER PROFILES — tx means 300 / 27.5 / 1.5; ratings
+-- 4.75 / 3.75 / 0; buyers keep the [0] default tx
+SELECT segment, COUNT(*) AS users,
+  ROUND(AVG(total_transactions), 1) AS avg_tx,
+  ROUND(AVG(seller_rating), 2) AS avg_rating
+FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-USERS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true)
+GROUP BY segment ORDER BY avg_tx DESC;
+
+-- Hook 9: BROWSE-TO-PURCHASE TTC — not visible here; emulator-only read.
+-- See derivation notes above and the timeToConvert assertion in
+-- marketplace.js stories (48h window: frequent/casual ~0.61,
+-- window/casual ~1.12, power/casual ~0.64).
+
+-- Hook 10: MESSAGE-COUNT MAGIC NUMBER — per-user avg offer_amount by
+-- total-message cohort: sweet(2-5)/low(0-1) ~1.30x, over(6+)/low ~0.83x
+WITH pu AS (
+  SELECT user_id::VARCHAR AS uid,
+    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'message sent') AS msgs,
+    AVG(offer_amount) FILTER (WHERE event = 'offer received') AS avg_offer
+  FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true)
+  GROUP BY 1
+)
+SELECT
+  CASE WHEN msgs BETWEEN 2 AND 5 THEN 'sweet' WHEN msgs >= 6 THEN 'over' ELSE 'low' END AS bucket,
+  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE avg_offer IS NOT NULL) AS users,
+  ROUND(AVG(avg_offer), 1) AS avg_offer
+FROM pu
+GROUP BY (CASE WHEN msgs BETWEEN 2 AND 5 THEN 'sweet' WHEN msgs >= 6 THEN 'over' ELSE 'low' END)
+ORDER BY bucket;
+
+-- Identity invariants: uid coverage 1.0 (auth event is Buyer Onboarding
+-- step 1 — no device-only prefix), device coverage ~0.999, devices/user
+-- ~2.06 (avgDevicePerUser: 2)
+SELECT
+  ROUND(AVG((user_id IS NOT NULL)::INT), 4) AS uid_share,
+  ROUND(AVG((device_id IS NOT NULL)::INT), 4) AS device_share,
+  ROUND(COUNT(DISTINCT device_id)::DOUBLE / COUNT(DISTINCT user_id), 2) AS devices_per_user
+FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-marketplace-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true);

package/dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.verify.mjs

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+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * marketplace.verify.mjs — thin wrapper around the story runner.
+ *
+ * All verification logic lives in the `stories` export of
+ * ./marketplace.js; this script just streams the shards and
+ * delegates. It is equivalent to:
+ *
+ *   node scripts/verify-stories.mjs dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.js --data-prefix verify-marketplace
+ *
+ * Generate first:
+ *   node scripts/verify-runner.mjs dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.js verify-marketplace
+ * Run:
+ *   node dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.verify.mjs [prefix]   # default verify-marketplace
+ */
+import fs from 'node:fs';
+import path from 'node:path';
+import readline from 'node:readline';
+import { execFile } from 'node:child_process';
+import { promisify } from 'node:util';
+import { buildIdentityMap, evaluateStories, VERDICT_RANK } from '@ak--47/dungeon-master/verify';
+import config, { stories } from './marketplace.js';
+
+const PREFIX = process.argv[2] || 'verify-marketplace';
+const prefixPath = path.join('data', PREFIX);
+
+async function loadShards(suffix) {
+	// streaming load: full-fidelity EVENTS shards exceed the readFileSync cap
+	const dir = path.dirname(prefixPath), base = path.basename(prefixPath);
+	const out = [];
+	if (!fs.existsSync(dir)) return out;
+	for (const f of fs.readdirSync(dir).filter(f => f.startsWith(`${base}-${suffix}`) && f.endsWith('.json')).sort()) {
+		const rl = readline.createInterface({ input: fs.createReadStream(path.join(dir, f)), crlfDelay: Infinity });
+		for await (const line of rl) {
+			if (line.trim()) out.push(JSON.parse(line));
+		}
+	}
+	return out;
+}
+
+const events = await loadShards('EVENTS');
+const profiles = await loadShards('USERS');
+if (!events.length) {
+	console.error(`no shards at ${prefixPath}-EVENTS*.json — run: node scripts/verify-runner.mjs dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.js ${PREFIX}`);
+	process.exit(1);
+}
+console.log(`marketplace — events=${events.length} users=${profiles.length} (${prefixPath})`);
+
+const execFileP = promisify(execFile);
+const runSql = async (sql) => {
+	const { stdout } = await execFileP('duckdb', ['-json', '-c', sql.replaceAll('{{PREFIX}}', prefixPath)], { maxBuffer: 64 * 1024 * 1024 });
+	return stdout.trim() ? JSON.parse(stdout) : [];
+};
+
+// Nine stories are DuckDB-backed (behavioral cohorts + purchases-per-cart
+// ratio-of-ratios reads that cancel persona activity confounds); H9
+// dispatches to emulateBreakdown's timeToConvert at a 48-HOUR window —
+// funnel-post gap scaling is invisible to cross-event SQL, and longer
+// windows admit cross-instance chains that contaminate the fast tail.
+const results = await evaluateStories(stories, events, {
+	profiles,
+	funnels: config.funnels,
+	identityMap: buildIdentityMap(profiles),
+	runSql,
+});
+
+let worst = 'NAILED';
+for (const r of results) {
+	console.log(`${r.verdict.padEnd(7)} ${r.id}`);
+	for (const a of r.assertions) console.log(`        ${a.verdict.padEnd(7)} ${a.detail}`);
+	if (VERDICT_RANK[r.verdict] < VERDICT_RANK[worst]) worst = r.verdict;
+}
+console.log(`\nworst verdict: ${worst}`);
+process.exit(VERDICT_RANK[worst] >= VERDICT_RANK.STRONG ? 0 : 1);