@ak--47/dungeon-master 1.5.4 → 1.6.1
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/.claude/skills/analyze-soup/SKILL.md +21 -12
- package/.claude/skills/create-dungeon/SKILL.md +65 -5
- package/.claude/skills/create-project/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/.claude/skills/create-project/provision.mjs +57 -10
- package/.claude/skills/powertools/SKILL.md +75 -0
- package/.claude/skills/powertools/pt.mjs +91 -0
- package/.claude/skills/powertools/snapshot-project.mjs +124 -0
- package/.claude/skills/verify-dungeon/SKILL.md +56 -25
- package/.claude/skills/verify-dungeon/references/counting-semantics.md +26 -6
- package/.claude/skills/verify-dungeon/references/report-format.md +14 -8
- package/.claude/skills/write-hooks/SKILL.md +156 -18
- package/CHANGELOG.md +224 -0
- package/HOOKS.md +566 -112
- package/README.md +30 -9
- package/docs/guides/1.3.0-upgrade-guide.md +262 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.3.1-upgrade-guide.md +328 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.4.0-upgrade-guide.md +130 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.4.1-upgrade-guide.md +125 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.4.3-upgrade-guide.md +200 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.4.4-upgrade-guide.md +95 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.5.0-upgrade-guide.md +426 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.5.1-upgrade-guide.md +178 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.5.3-upgrade-guide.md +117 -0
- package/docs/guides/1.6.0-upgrade-guide.md +204 -0
- package/dungeons/technical/stories-verify.js +152 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/README.md +154 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.js +1424 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.sql +184 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.verify.mjs +71 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/community/community.js +1589 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/community/community.sql +216 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/community/community.verify.mjs +72 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/crypto/crypto.js +1483 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/crypto/crypto.sql +194 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/crypto/crypto.verify.mjs +78 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/dating/dating.js +1540 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/dating/dating.sql +288 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/dating/dating.verify.mjs +72 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/devtools/devtools.js +1524 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/devtools/devtools.sql +161 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/devtools/devtools.verify.mjs +73 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/ecommerce/ecommerce.js +1480 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/ecommerce/ecommerce.sql +218 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/ecommerce/ecommerce.verify.mjs +70 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/education/education.js +1763 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/education/education.sql +243 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/education/education.verify.mjs +75 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/fintech/fintech.js +1410 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/fintech/fintech.sql +175 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/fintech/fintech.verify.mjs +70 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/fitness/fitness.js +1495 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/fitness/fitness.sql +206 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/fitness/fitness.verify.mjs +71 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/food-delivery/food-delivery.js +1641 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/food-delivery/food-delivery.sql +183 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/food-delivery/food-delivery.verify.mjs +75 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/gaming/gaming.js +1741 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/gaming/gaming.sql +249 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/gaming/gaming.verify.mjs +70 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/healthcare/healthcare.js +1488 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/healthcare/healthcare.sql +193 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/healthcare/healthcare.verify.mjs +72 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/insurance-application/insurance-application.js +1852 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/insurance-application/insurance-application.sql +174 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/insurance-application/insurance-application.verify.mjs +74 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/logistics/logistics.js +1541 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/logistics/logistics.sql +205 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/logistics/logistics.verify.mjs +73 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.js +1438 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.sql +148 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/marketplace/marketplace.verify.mjs +74 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/{media.js → media/media.js} +557 -58
- package/dungeons/vertical/media/media.sql +173 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/media/media.verify.mjs +74 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/real-estate/real-estate.js +1629 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/real-estate/real-estate.sql +167 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/real-estate/real-estate.verify.mjs +75 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/sass/sass.js +1733 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/sass/sass.sql +173 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/sass/sass.verify.mjs +74 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/social/social.js +1456 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/social/social.sql +160 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/social/social.verify.mjs +76 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/streaming/streaming.js +677 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/streaming/streaming.sql +101 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/streaming/streaming.verify.mjs +75 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/support-desk/support-desk.js +741 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/support-desk/support-desk.sql +137 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/support-desk/support-desk.verify.mjs +75 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/travel/travel.js +1603 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/travel/travel.sql +236 -0
- package/dungeons/vertical/travel/travel.verify.mjs +72 -0
- package/index.js +7 -3
- package/lib/core/config-validator.js +37 -2
- package/lib/core/context.js +4 -2
- package/lib/core/dungeon-loader.js +20 -15
- package/lib/core/dungeon-to-json.js +22 -4
- package/lib/core/storage.js +3 -3
- package/lib/generators/funnels.js +36 -9
- package/lib/hook-helpers/cohort.js +53 -0
- package/lib/hook-helpers/index.js +8 -0
- package/lib/hook-helpers/mutate.js +1 -1
- package/lib/hook-helpers/shape.js +319 -0
- package/lib/hook-patterns/aggregate-per-user-by-bin.js +13 -5
- package/lib/hook-patterns/attributed-by-source.js +60 -58
- package/lib/hook-patterns/frequency-by-frequency.js +14 -4
- package/lib/hook-patterns/funnel-frequency-breakdown.js +24 -12
- package/lib/hook-patterns/index.js +1 -1
- package/lib/hook-patterns/time-to-convert-by-segment.js +75 -13
- package/lib/orchestrators/user-loop.js +41 -0
- package/lib/templates/story-spec.schema.json +175 -0
- package/lib/utils/json-evaluator.js +1 -1
- package/lib/utils/utils.js +151 -59
- package/lib/verify/coerce.js +186 -0
- package/lib/verify/counting.js +270 -32
- package/lib/verify/emulate-breakdown.js +1285 -203
- package/lib/verify/first-time.js +89 -0
- package/lib/verify/flows.js +679 -0
- package/lib/verify/formula.js +259 -0
- package/lib/verify/funnel-engine.js +697 -113
- package/lib/verify/index.js +32 -4
- package/lib/verify/sessionize.js +275 -0
- package/lib/verify/story-runner.js +483 -0
- package/lib/verify/verify-dungeon.js +59 -37
- package/package.json +2 -1
- package/scripts/extract-dungeon-schema.mjs +2 -2
- package/scripts/run-many.mjs +2 -2
- package/scripts/verify-runner.mjs +2 -2
- package/scripts/verify-stories.mjs +244 -0
- package/types.d.ts +298 -30
- package/dungeons/vertical/ai-platform.js +0 -818
- package/dungeons/vertical/community.js +0 -966
- package/dungeons/vertical/crypto.js +0 -895
- package/dungeons/vertical/dating.js +0 -830
- package/dungeons/vertical/devtools.js +0 -1050
- package/dungeons/vertical/ecommerce.js +0 -811
- package/dungeons/vertical/education.js +0 -964
- package/dungeons/vertical/fintech.js +0 -946
- package/dungeons/vertical/fitness.js +0 -935
- package/dungeons/vertical/food-delivery.js +0 -934
- package/dungeons/vertical/gaming.js +0 -1120
- package/dungeons/vertical/healthcare.js +0 -945
- package/dungeons/vertical/insurance-application.js +0 -1039
- package/dungeons/vertical/logistics.js +0 -986
- package/dungeons/vertical/marketplace.js +0 -1019
- package/dungeons/vertical/real-estate.js +0 -872
- package/dungeons/vertical/sass.js +0 -995
- package/dungeons/vertical/social.js +0 -904
- package/dungeons/vertical/travel.js +0 -930
|
@@ -0,0 +1,1541 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
// ── IMPORTS ──
|
|
2
|
+
import dayjs from "dayjs";
|
|
3
|
+
import utc from "dayjs/plugin/utc.js";
|
|
4
|
+
dayjs.extend(utc);
|
|
5
|
+
import "dotenv/config";
|
|
6
|
+
import * as u from "@ak--47/dungeon-master/utils";
|
|
7
|
+
import * as v from "ak-tools";
|
|
8
|
+
/** @typedef {import("../../../types").Dungeon} Config */
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
// ── OVERVIEW ──
|
|
11
|
+
/*
|
|
12
|
+
* NAME: SupplyStack
|
|
13
|
+
* APP: B2B warehouse/inventory management SaaS for businesses to track
|
|
14
|
+
* stock levels, purchase orders, suppliers, shipments, and quality
|
|
15
|
+
* inspections across multiple warehouses. Multi-tier system with
|
|
16
|
+
* enterprise, mid-market, small business, and trial customers.
|
|
17
|
+
* SCALE: 10,000 users, ~2.0M events, 121 days (2026-01-01 → 2026-05-01)
|
|
18
|
+
* CORE LOOP: account created → inventory checked → purchase order → order received → shipment tracked
|
|
19
|
+
*
|
|
20
|
+
* EVENTS (17):
|
|
21
|
+
* inventory checked (8) > app session (7) > shipment tracked (6) > notification received (6)
|
|
22
|
+
* > stockout alert (5) > purchase order created (5) > order received (4) > report generated (4)
|
|
23
|
+
* > supplier contacted (3) > warehouse transfer (3) > invoice processed (3)
|
|
24
|
+
* > integration connected (2) > alert configured (2) > quality inspection (2)
|
|
25
|
+
* > account created (1) > support ticket (1) > account deactivated (1)
|
|
26
|
+
*
|
|
27
|
+
* FUNNELS (5):
|
|
28
|
+
* - Onboarding: account created → inventory checked → integration connected → report generated (40%)
|
|
29
|
+
* - Order Fulfillment: inventory checked → purchase order created → order received → shipment tracked (35%, reentry)
|
|
30
|
+
* - Supplier Management: supplier contacted → purchase order created → invoice processed (45%)
|
|
31
|
+
* - Integration Setup: integration connected → report generated → alert configured (30%)
|
|
32
|
+
* - Alert Response: stockout alert → purchase order created → order received (50%)
|
|
33
|
+
*
|
|
34
|
+
* USER PROPS: company_tier, warehouse_count, employee_count, industry, integration_count, Platform, subscription_plan
|
|
35
|
+
* SUPER PROPS: Platform, subscription_plan
|
|
36
|
+
* SCD PROPS: company_tier (trial/starter/professional/enterprise, monthly fuzzy, max 6)
|
|
37
|
+
* GROUPS: none
|
|
38
|
+
*/
|
|
39
|
+
|
|
40
|
+
// ── HOOK STORIES ──
|
|
41
|
+
/*
|
|
42
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
43
|
+
* 1. MONTH-END REPORTING SURGE (event hook)
|
|
44
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
45
|
+
*
|
|
46
|
+
* PATTERN: Reports generated on calendar days 28-31 have 2.5x the
|
|
47
|
+
* report_pages. Simulates end-of-month compliance and audit reporting.
|
|
48
|
+
*
|
|
49
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
50
|
+
*
|
|
51
|
+
* Report 1: Report Volume by Day of Month
|
|
52
|
+
* - Report type: Insights
|
|
53
|
+
* - Event: "report generated"
|
|
54
|
+
* - Measure: Average of "report_pages"
|
|
55
|
+
* - Breakdown: Day of month (custom formula or daily chart)
|
|
56
|
+
* - Expected: Days 28-31 should show ~2x avg report_pages vs mid-month
|
|
57
|
+
* (month-end ~40 pages, mid-month ~20 pages)
|
|
58
|
+
*
|
|
59
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Warehouse managers generate larger, more
|
|
60
|
+
* comprehensive reports at month-end for audits and compliance.
|
|
61
|
+
*
|
|
62
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
63
|
+
* 2. RUSH ORDER PREMIUM (event hook)
|
|
64
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
65
|
+
*
|
|
66
|
+
* PATTERN: Purchase orders with priority "urgent" get 1.5x unit_cost.
|
|
67
|
+
* Simulates expedited shipping and rush fulfillment surcharges.
|
|
68
|
+
*
|
|
69
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
70
|
+
*
|
|
71
|
+
* Report 1: Unit Cost by Priority
|
|
72
|
+
* - Report type: Insights
|
|
73
|
+
* - Event: "purchase order created"
|
|
74
|
+
* - Measure: Average of "unit_cost"
|
|
75
|
+
* - Breakdown: "priority"
|
|
76
|
+
* - Expected: urgent ~$75 vs standard ~$50 (1.5x ratio)
|
|
77
|
+
*
|
|
78
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Rush orders from suppliers incur premium
|
|
79
|
+
* pricing for expedited manufacturing and express shipping.
|
|
80
|
+
*
|
|
81
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
82
|
+
* 3. REORDER ACCURACY BY TIER (everything hook)
|
|
83
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
84
|
+
*
|
|
85
|
+
* PATTERN: Enterprise users have 0.9x stockout rate -- they get 10%
|
|
86
|
+
* of their "stockout alert" events removed. Better forecasting and
|
|
87
|
+
* larger safety stock reduces out-of-stock incidents.
|
|
88
|
+
*
|
|
89
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
90
|
+
*
|
|
91
|
+
* Report 1: Stockout Rate by Company Tier
|
|
92
|
+
* - Report type: Insights
|
|
93
|
+
* - Event: "stockout alert"
|
|
94
|
+
* - Measure: Total per user
|
|
95
|
+
* - Breakdown: user property "company_tier"
|
|
96
|
+
* - Expected: enterprise ~10% fewer stockout alerts per user than
|
|
97
|
+
* mid_market or small_business
|
|
98
|
+
*
|
|
99
|
+
* Report 2: Stockout-to-Order Ratio
|
|
100
|
+
* - Report type: Insights (formula)
|
|
101
|
+
* - A = "stockout alert" total, B = "purchase order created" total
|
|
102
|
+
* - Formula: A / B
|
|
103
|
+
* - Breakdown: user property "company_tier"
|
|
104
|
+
* - Expected: enterprise ratio ~0.9x vs small_business baseline
|
|
105
|
+
*
|
|
106
|
+
* Report 3: Stockout-to-Inventory-Check Ratio (NORMALIZED — recommended)
|
|
107
|
+
* - Report type: Insights (formula)
|
|
108
|
+
* - A = "stockout alert" total, B = "inventory checked" total
|
|
109
|
+
* - Formula: A / B
|
|
110
|
+
* - Breakdown: user property "company_tier"
|
|
111
|
+
* - Expected: enterprise ratio ~ 0.9x SMB ratio (10% reduction visible)
|
|
112
|
+
* - WHY THIS METRIC: per-user counts are dominated by persona event multipliers
|
|
113
|
+
* (enterprise has 5x baseline activity); ratio normalizes that out.
|
|
114
|
+
*
|
|
115
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Enterprise operations have dedicated
|
|
116
|
+
* procurement teams and predictive analytics reducing stockouts.
|
|
117
|
+
*
|
|
118
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
119
|
+
* 4. INTEGRATION COMPLETION DRIVES RETENTION (everything hook)
|
|
120
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
121
|
+
*
|
|
122
|
+
* PATTERN: Users with 3+ "integration connected" events get cloned
|
|
123
|
+
* "report generated" events. Connected integrations produce richer
|
|
124
|
+
* reporting and deeper platform engagement.
|
|
125
|
+
*
|
|
126
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
127
|
+
*
|
|
128
|
+
* Report 1: Report Volume by Integration Count
|
|
129
|
+
* - Report type: Insights
|
|
130
|
+
* - Event: "report generated"
|
|
131
|
+
* - Measure: Total per user
|
|
132
|
+
* - Breakdown: user property "integration_count" (or filter by
|
|
133
|
+
* users who did "integration connected" 3+ times)
|
|
134
|
+
* - Expected: Users with 3+ integrations ~2x report events
|
|
135
|
+
*
|
|
136
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Businesses that integrate their ERP, shipping,
|
|
137
|
+
* and accounting systems generate more automated reports, increasing
|
|
138
|
+
* stickiness and reducing churn.
|
|
139
|
+
*
|
|
140
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
141
|
+
* 5. ALERT FATIGUE (everything hook)
|
|
142
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
143
|
+
*
|
|
144
|
+
* PATTERN: Users with >30 "stockout alert" events get increasing
|
|
145
|
+
* response_time_hours on their later alerts. The 20th+ alert has
|
|
146
|
+
* response_time scaled up by 1.5-3x based on position.
|
|
147
|
+
*
|
|
148
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
149
|
+
*
|
|
150
|
+
* Report 1: Alert Response Time Over Time
|
|
151
|
+
* - Report type: Insights
|
|
152
|
+
* - Event: "stockout alert"
|
|
153
|
+
* - Measure: Average of "response_time_hours"
|
|
154
|
+
* - Line chart by week
|
|
155
|
+
* - Filter: users with high alert volume
|
|
156
|
+
* - Expected: Response time trends upward over time for heavy-alert users
|
|
157
|
+
* (early alerts ~4h, later alerts ~8-12h)
|
|
158
|
+
*
|
|
159
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Alert fatigue is a real operational problem --
|
|
160
|
+
* too many alerts desensitize warehouse managers, slowing response.
|
|
161
|
+
*
|
|
162
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
163
|
+
* 6. TRIAL CHURN (everything hook)
|
|
164
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
165
|
+
*
|
|
166
|
+
* PATTERN: Trial-tier users lose 50% of their events after day 7
|
|
167
|
+
* (measured from their first event). Simulates trial users who briefly
|
|
168
|
+
* explore then abandon the platform.
|
|
169
|
+
*
|
|
170
|
+
* v1.6 BEHAVIOR CHANGE: v1.5 keyed this hook on record.length < 10,
|
|
171
|
+
* which at this dungeon's event rate (~145 events/user; trial persona
|
|
172
|
+
* ~58) matched only ~0.9% of users and never touched actual trial
|
|
173
|
+
* users — the documented retention read below had no engineered signal
|
|
174
|
+
* behind it. Now keyed on company_tier === "trial" so the story and
|
|
175
|
+
* the report line up.
|
|
176
|
+
*
|
|
177
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
178
|
+
*
|
|
179
|
+
* Report 1: Retention by Company Tier
|
|
180
|
+
* - Report type: Retention
|
|
181
|
+
* - Starting event: "account created"
|
|
182
|
+
* - Return event: Any event
|
|
183
|
+
* - Breakdown: user property "company_tier"
|
|
184
|
+
* - Expected: trial users show a sharp extra drop after week 1
|
|
185
|
+
* (~50% of their post-week-1 activity is removed, on top of the
|
|
186
|
+
* organic 14-day trial activity window)
|
|
187
|
+
*
|
|
188
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: SaaS trial users who don't activate within
|
|
189
|
+
* the first week rarely convert to paying customers.
|
|
190
|
+
*
|
|
191
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
192
|
+
* 7. ENTERPRISE PROFILES (user hook)
|
|
193
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
194
|
+
*
|
|
195
|
+
* PATTERN: Users with company_tier "enterprise" get warehouse_count
|
|
196
|
+
* boosted to 5-15 and employee_count to 200-2000. Enterprise ops
|
|
197
|
+
* manage significantly more infrastructure.
|
|
198
|
+
*
|
|
199
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
200
|
+
*
|
|
201
|
+
* Report 1: Warehouse Count by Tier
|
|
202
|
+
* - Report type: Insights
|
|
203
|
+
* - Measure: Profiles -> Average of "warehouse_count"
|
|
204
|
+
* - Breakdown: "company_tier"
|
|
205
|
+
* - Expected: enterprise ~10 warehouses vs small_business ~2
|
|
206
|
+
*
|
|
207
|
+
* Report 2: Employee Count Distribution
|
|
208
|
+
* - Report type: Insights
|
|
209
|
+
* - Measure: Profiles -> Average of "employee_count"
|
|
210
|
+
* - Breakdown: "company_tier"
|
|
211
|
+
* - Expected: enterprise ~1100 vs small_business ~50
|
|
212
|
+
*
|
|
213
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Enterprise customers operate multi-warehouse
|
|
214
|
+
* networks with large logistics teams, driving higher ACV.
|
|
215
|
+
*
|
|
216
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
217
|
+
* 8. SMALL-BUSINESS CONVERSION DROP (everything hook)
|
|
218
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
219
|
+
*
|
|
220
|
+
* PATTERN: Small-business users lose ~35% of "alert configured"
|
|
221
|
+
* events (last step of the Integration Setup funnel). This is
|
|
222
|
+
* implemented via event filtering in the everything hook rather
|
|
223
|
+
* than conversionRate modification in funnel-pre, so the effect
|
|
224
|
+
* is not diluted by organic (non-funnel) events.
|
|
225
|
+
*
|
|
226
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
227
|
+
*
|
|
228
|
+
* Report 1: Integration Funnel by Tier
|
|
229
|
+
* - Report type: Funnels
|
|
230
|
+
* - Steps: "integration connected" -> "report generated" -> "alert configured"
|
|
231
|
+
* - Breakdown: user property "company_tier"
|
|
232
|
+
* - Expected: small_business ~20% vs enterprise/mid_market ~30% conversion
|
|
233
|
+
*
|
|
234
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Small businesses lack dedicated IT teams,
|
|
235
|
+
* leading to incomplete integration setup and lower alert adoption.
|
|
236
|
+
*
|
|
237
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
238
|
+
* 9. INVENTORY-CHECK MAGIC NUMBER (everything hook)
|
|
239
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
240
|
+
*
|
|
241
|
+
* PATTERN: Users with 5-15 "inventory checked" events sit in the
|
|
242
|
+
* "engaged-but-focused" sweet spot — every "purchase order created"
|
|
243
|
+
* event gets quantity boosted 1.4x. Users with 16 or more inventory
|
|
244
|
+
* checks are over-engaged (paralysis); ~60% of their "purchase order
|
|
245
|
+
* created" events are dropped. No flag is stamped — discoverable only
|
|
246
|
+
* by binning users on inventory-check COUNT and comparing PO totals.
|
|
247
|
+
*
|
|
248
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
249
|
+
*
|
|
250
|
+
* Report 1: PO Quantity by Inventory-Check Bucket
|
|
251
|
+
* - Report type: Insights (with cohort)
|
|
252
|
+
* - Cohort A: users with 5-15 "inventory checked" events
|
|
253
|
+
* - Cohort B: users with 0-4 "inventory checked" events
|
|
254
|
+
* - Event: "purchase order created"
|
|
255
|
+
* - Measure: Average of "quantity"
|
|
256
|
+
* - Compare cohort A vs cohort B
|
|
257
|
+
* - Expected: cohort A ~ 1.4x higher quantity than B
|
|
258
|
+
*
|
|
259
|
+
* Report 2: POs per User by Browse Intensity
|
|
260
|
+
* - Report type: Insights (with cohort)
|
|
261
|
+
* - Cohort C: users with >= 16 "inventory checked" events
|
|
262
|
+
* - Cohort A: users with 5-15 "inventory checked" events
|
|
263
|
+
* - Event: "purchase order created"
|
|
264
|
+
* - Measure: Total events per user
|
|
265
|
+
* - Compare cohort C vs cohort A
|
|
266
|
+
* - Expected: cohort C has ~ 60% fewer POs per user
|
|
267
|
+
*
|
|
268
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: A focused operations team that monitors
|
|
269
|
+
* stock just enough places larger, more confident orders; an
|
|
270
|
+
* obsessive checker is paralysed and orders less.
|
|
271
|
+
*
|
|
272
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
273
|
+
* 10. ONBOARDING TIME-TO-CONVERT (funnel-post hook)
|
|
274
|
+
* -------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
275
|
+
*
|
|
276
|
+
* PATTERN: Enterprise-tier users complete the Onboarding funnel
|
|
277
|
+
* 1.4x faster (time gaps scaled by 0.71). Small-business and trial
|
|
278
|
+
* users complete it 1.3x slower (gaps scaled by 1.3). The hook
|
|
279
|
+
* iterates over the funnel-post event array, compresses or stretches
|
|
280
|
+
* the inter-step time gaps based on the user's company_tier from
|
|
281
|
+
* meta.profile, then rewrites each event's timestamp.
|
|
282
|
+
*
|
|
283
|
+
* v1.6: scoped to the Onboarding funnel via meta.funnel.name — v1.5
|
|
284
|
+
* applied the factor to every funnel's gaps, contradicting this
|
|
285
|
+
* documented story.
|
|
286
|
+
*
|
|
287
|
+
* HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
|
|
288
|
+
*
|
|
289
|
+
* Report 1: Onboarding TTC by Company Tier
|
|
290
|
+
* - Report type: Funnels
|
|
291
|
+
* - Steps: "account created" -> "inventory checked" -> "integration connected" -> "report generated"
|
|
292
|
+
* - Breakdown: user property "company_tier"
|
|
293
|
+
* - Metric: Median time to convert
|
|
294
|
+
* - Expected: enterprise median TTC ~ 0.71x of small_business/trial TTC
|
|
295
|
+
* (e.g., enterprise ~ 36h vs small_business ~ 66h)
|
|
296
|
+
*
|
|
297
|
+
* NOTE: This effect is visible in Mixpanel funnel median TTC and in
|
|
298
|
+
* emulateBreakdown's timeToConvert (the H10 story asserts it at a
|
|
299
|
+
* 93.6h window = 72h generative window x the 1.3 small-business
|
|
300
|
+
* stretch). Cross-event MIN->MIN SQL queries on raw events do NOT
|
|
301
|
+
* show it — greedy single-pass pairing across funnel instances
|
|
302
|
+
* buries the signal.
|
|
303
|
+
*
|
|
304
|
+
* REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Enterprise customers have dedicated IT teams
|
|
305
|
+
* and onboarding specialists who move through setup, integration,
|
|
306
|
+
* and first reporting much faster than small businesses configuring
|
|
307
|
+
* the platform themselves.
|
|
308
|
+
*
|
|
309
|
+
* ===================================================================
|
|
310
|
+
* EXPECTED METRICS SUMMARY (Measured = full fidelity, 10K users / 2,020,201 events)
|
|
311
|
+
* ===================================================================
|
|
312
|
+
*
|
|
313
|
+
* Story id | Metric | Expected | Measured
|
|
314
|
+
* --------------------------|--------------------------------------------|---------------|---------
|
|
315
|
+
* H1-month-end-pages | organic month-end / mid-month report_pages | ≈2.47 | 2.476
|
|
316
|
+
* | placebo: clone month-end / mid-month pages | ≈1.0 | 1.002
|
|
317
|
+
* H2-rush-order-premium | urgent / standard unit_cost | ≈1.5 | 1.495
|
|
318
|
+
* | placebo: expedited / standard unit_cost | ≈1.0 | 0.999
|
|
319
|
+
* H3-stockout-by-tier | ent / smb stockout-per-inventory-check | ≈0.89 | 0.905
|
|
320
|
+
* | placebo: mid / smb ratio | ≈1.0 | 1.010
|
|
321
|
+
* H4-integration-reports | clones per integration (3+ cohort) | ≈0.637 | 0.627
|
|
322
|
+
* | <3-integration users with any clone | 0 | 0.0000
|
|
323
|
+
* H5-alert-fatigue | late-treated / control response_time | ≈2.0 | 2.002
|
|
324
|
+
* | placebo: early-untreated / control | ≈1.0 | 1.003
|
|
325
|
+
* H6-trial-churn | DiD trial wk2/wk1 rate vs small_business | ≈0.5-0.55 | 0.448
|
|
326
|
+
* | placebo: mid_market vs small_business | ≈1.0 | 1.143
|
|
327
|
+
* H7-enterprise-profiles | per-tier profile ranges in-range share | 100% | 100%
|
|
328
|
+
* H8-smb-conversion-drop | Integration Setup step2→3 smb/mid conv | ≈0.50 | 0.472
|
|
329
|
+
* | placebo: Supplier Mgmt smb/mid conv | ≈0.73 | 0.711
|
|
330
|
+
* H9-inventory-magic-number | sweet / low PO quantity | ≈1.4 | 1.388
|
|
331
|
+
* | keep_hat b16-23/b12-15 PO-per-inv (smb) | ≈0.37 | 0.379
|
|
332
|
+
* | placebo: sweet / low unit_cost | ≈1.0 | 1.005
|
|
333
|
+
* H10-onboarding-ttc | Onboarding median TTC ent/mid (93.6h win) | ≈0.62-0.74 | 0.741
|
|
334
|
+
* | Onboarding median TTC smb/mid | ≈1.1-1.2 | 1.107
|
|
335
|
+
*/
|
|
336
|
+
|
|
337
|
+
// ── SCALE ──
|
|
338
|
+
const SEED = "dm4-logistics";
|
|
339
|
+
const NUM_USERS = 10_000;
|
|
340
|
+
const DATASET_START = "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z";
|
|
341
|
+
const DATASET_END = "2026-05-01T23:59:59Z";
|
|
342
|
+
const EVENTS_PER_DAY = 1.2;
|
|
343
|
+
const token = process.env.MP_TOKEN || "your-mixpanel-token";
|
|
344
|
+
|
|
345
|
+
const chance = u.initChance(SEED);
|
|
346
|
+
|
|
347
|
+
// ── KNOBS (tweak these to reshape stories) ──
|
|
348
|
+
const MONTH_END_DAY_THRESHOLD = 28;
|
|
349
|
+
const MONTH_END_PAGES_MULT = 2.5;
|
|
350
|
+
|
|
351
|
+
const RUSH_ORDER_COST_MULT = 1.5;
|
|
352
|
+
|
|
353
|
+
const ENTERPRISE_STOCKOUT_DROP_LIKELIHOOD = 10;
|
|
354
|
+
|
|
355
|
+
const INTEGRATION_THRESHOLD = 3;
|
|
356
|
+
const INTEGRATION_REPORT_CLONE_LIKELIHOOD = 65;
|
|
357
|
+
|
|
358
|
+
const ALERT_FATIGUE_THRESHOLD = 30;
|
|
359
|
+
const ALERT_FATIGUE_START_IDX = 20;
|
|
360
|
+
const ALERT_FATIGUE_BASE_MULT = 1.5;
|
|
361
|
+
const ALERT_FATIGUE_RAMP_MULT = 1.5;
|
|
362
|
+
|
|
363
|
+
const TRIAL_CHURN_CUTOFF_DAYS = 7;
|
|
364
|
+
const TRIAL_CHURN_DROP_LIKELIHOOD = 50;
|
|
365
|
+
|
|
366
|
+
const SMB_ALERT_DROP_LIKELIHOOD = 35;
|
|
367
|
+
|
|
368
|
+
const INVENTORY_SWEET_MIN = 5;
|
|
369
|
+
const INVENTORY_SWEET_MAX = 15;
|
|
370
|
+
const INVENTORY_OVER_THRESHOLD = 16;
|
|
371
|
+
const INVENTORY_PO_QUANTITY_BOOST = 1.4;
|
|
372
|
+
const INVENTORY_OVER_PO_DROP_LIKELIHOOD = 60;
|
|
373
|
+
|
|
374
|
+
const TTC_ENTERPRISE_FACTOR = 0.71;
|
|
375
|
+
const TTC_SMB_FACTOR = 1.3;
|
|
376
|
+
|
|
377
|
+
// ── DATA ARRAYS ──
|
|
378
|
+
const warehouseIds = v.range(1, 80).map(() => `WH_${v.uid(6)}`);
|
|
379
|
+
const supplierIds = v.range(1, 150).map(() => `SUP_${v.uid(6)}`);
|
|
380
|
+
|
|
381
|
+
// ── HELPER FUNCTIONS ──
|
|
382
|
+
function handleUserHooks(record) {
|
|
383
|
+
// H7: ENTERPRISE PROFILES — large warehouse_count + employee_count by tier.
|
|
384
|
+
if (record.company_tier === "enterprise") {
|
|
385
|
+
record.warehouse_count = chance.integer({ min: 5, max: 15 });
|
|
386
|
+
record.employee_count = chance.integer({ min: 200, max: 2000 });
|
|
387
|
+
} else if (record.company_tier === "mid_market") {
|
|
388
|
+
record.warehouse_count = chance.integer({ min: 2, max: 6 });
|
|
389
|
+
record.employee_count = chance.integer({ min: 20, max: 200 });
|
|
390
|
+
} else if (record.company_tier === "small_business") {
|
|
391
|
+
record.warehouse_count = chance.integer({ min: 1, max: 3 });
|
|
392
|
+
record.employee_count = chance.integer({ min: 5, max: 80 });
|
|
393
|
+
} else if (record.company_tier === "trial") {
|
|
394
|
+
record.warehouse_count = 1;
|
|
395
|
+
record.employee_count = chance.integer({ min: 1, max: 10 });
|
|
396
|
+
}
|
|
397
|
+
return record;
|
|
398
|
+
}
|
|
399
|
+
|
|
400
|
+
function handleEventHooks(record) {
|
|
401
|
+
// H2: RUSH ORDER PREMIUM — urgent purchase orders get 1.5x unit_cost.
|
|
402
|
+
if (record.event === "purchase order created" && record.priority === "urgent") {
|
|
403
|
+
record.unit_cost = Math.floor((record.unit_cost || 50) * RUSH_ORDER_COST_MULT);
|
|
404
|
+
}
|
|
405
|
+
return record;
|
|
406
|
+
}
|
|
407
|
+
|
|
408
|
+
function handleFunnelPostHooks(record, meta) {
|
|
409
|
+
// H10: ONBOARDING TIME-TO-CONVERT — enterprise 1.4x faster (0.71);
|
|
410
|
+
// small_business + trial 1.3x slower (1.3).
|
|
411
|
+
// v1.6: scoped to the Onboarding funnel only. v1.5 applied the factor to
|
|
412
|
+
// EVERY funnel's inter-step gaps, contradicting the documented story
|
|
413
|
+
// (Onboarding TTC) and silently stretching/compressing all five funnels.
|
|
414
|
+
if (meta?.funnel?.name !== "Onboarding") return record;
|
|
415
|
+
const segment = meta?.profile?.company_tier;
|
|
416
|
+
if (Array.isArray(record) && record.length > 1) {
|
|
417
|
+
const factor = (
|
|
418
|
+
segment === "enterprise" ? TTC_ENTERPRISE_FACTOR :
|
|
419
|
+
segment === "small_business" || segment === "trial" ? TTC_SMB_FACTOR :
|
|
420
|
+
1.0
|
|
421
|
+
);
|
|
422
|
+
if (factor !== 1.0) {
|
|
423
|
+
for (let i = 1; i < record.length; i++) {
|
|
424
|
+
const prev = dayjs(record[i - 1].time);
|
|
425
|
+
const newGap = Math.round(dayjs(record[i].time).diff(prev) * factor);
|
|
426
|
+
record[i].time = prev.add(newGap, "milliseconds").toISOString();
|
|
427
|
+
}
|
|
428
|
+
}
|
|
429
|
+
}
|
|
430
|
+
return record;
|
|
431
|
+
}
|
|
432
|
+
|
|
433
|
+
function handleEverythingHooks(record, meta) {
|
|
434
|
+
if (!record.length) return record;
|
|
435
|
+
const profile = meta.profile;
|
|
436
|
+
|
|
437
|
+
// ── SUPER-PROP STAMPING ──
|
|
438
|
+
// Stamp superProps from profile so they are consistent per-user.
|
|
439
|
+
if (profile) {
|
|
440
|
+
const plat = profile.Platform;
|
|
441
|
+
const plan = profile.subscription_plan;
|
|
442
|
+
record.forEach(e => {
|
|
443
|
+
if (plat) e.Platform = plat;
|
|
444
|
+
if (plan) e.subscription_plan = plan;
|
|
445
|
+
});
|
|
446
|
+
}
|
|
447
|
+
|
|
448
|
+
// H1: MONTH-END REPORTING SURGE — reports on calendar days 28-31 get
|
|
449
|
+
// 2.5x report_pages. Runs in everything (post-sessionization) so the
|
|
450
|
+
// day-of-month tag matches the final timestamp.
|
|
451
|
+
for (const e of record) {
|
|
452
|
+
if (e.event === "report generated") {
|
|
453
|
+
const dayOfMonth = new Date(e.time).getUTCDate();
|
|
454
|
+
if (dayOfMonth >= MONTH_END_DAY_THRESHOLD) {
|
|
455
|
+
e.report_pages = Math.floor((e.report_pages || 20) * MONTH_END_PAGES_MULT);
|
|
456
|
+
}
|
|
457
|
+
}
|
|
458
|
+
}
|
|
459
|
+
|
|
460
|
+
// H8: SMALL-BUSINESS CONVERSION DROP — small_business users lose
|
|
461
|
+
// ~35% of "alert configured" events (last step of Integration Setup
|
|
462
|
+
// funnel), simulating lower conversion without dedicated IT.
|
|
463
|
+
if (profile && profile.company_tier === "small_business") {
|
|
464
|
+
record = record.filter(e => {
|
|
465
|
+
if (e.event === "alert configured" && chance.bool({ likelihood: SMB_ALERT_DROP_LIKELIHOOD })) {
|
|
466
|
+
return false;
|
|
467
|
+
}
|
|
468
|
+
return true;
|
|
469
|
+
});
|
|
470
|
+
}
|
|
471
|
+
|
|
472
|
+
// H3: REORDER ACCURACY BY TIER — enterprise users get 10% of
|
|
473
|
+
// stockout alerts removed (better forecasting + safety stock).
|
|
474
|
+
if (profile && profile.company_tier === "enterprise") {
|
|
475
|
+
for (let i = record.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
|
|
476
|
+
if (record[i].event === "stockout alert" && chance.bool({ likelihood: ENTERPRISE_STOCKOUT_DROP_LIKELIHOOD })) {
|
|
477
|
+
record.splice(i, 1);
|
|
478
|
+
}
|
|
479
|
+
}
|
|
480
|
+
}
|
|
481
|
+
|
|
482
|
+
// H6: TRIAL CHURN — trial-tier users lose 50% of events after day 7
|
|
483
|
+
// (measured from their first event; account created is isFirstEvent so
|
|
484
|
+
// record[0] is the birth event).
|
|
485
|
+
// v1.6: keyed on company_tier === "trial". v1.5 keyed on
|
|
486
|
+
// record.length < 10, which at this dungeon's event rate (~145
|
|
487
|
+
// events/user; trial persona ~58) matched only ~0.9% of users and never
|
|
488
|
+
// touched actual trial users — the documented retention read (trial
|
|
489
|
+
// drop after week 1, broken down by company_tier) had no engineered
|
|
490
|
+
// signal behind it.
|
|
491
|
+
// Runs BEFORE H4 so the 3+-integration clone cohort is defined on
|
|
492
|
+
// FINAL integration counts — otherwise churned trial users keep clones
|
|
493
|
+
// while their output count falls below the threshold (leakage).
|
|
494
|
+
if (profile && profile.company_tier === "trial" && record.length > 1) {
|
|
495
|
+
const firstTime = dayjs(record[0].time);
|
|
496
|
+
const cutoff = firstTime.add(TRIAL_CHURN_CUTOFF_DAYS, "days");
|
|
497
|
+
for (let i = record.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
|
|
498
|
+
if (dayjs(record[i].time).isAfter(cutoff) && chance.bool({ likelihood: TRIAL_CHURN_DROP_LIKELIHOOD })) {
|
|
499
|
+
record.splice(i, 1);
|
|
500
|
+
}
|
|
501
|
+
}
|
|
502
|
+
}
|
|
503
|
+
|
|
504
|
+
// H4: INTEGRATION COMPLETION DRIVES RETENTION — users with 3+
|
|
505
|
+
// "integration connected" events get cloned "report generated" events.
|
|
506
|
+
const integrationCount = record.filter(e => e.event === "integration connected").length;
|
|
507
|
+
if (integrationCount >= INTEGRATION_THRESHOLD) {
|
|
508
|
+
const templateReport = record.find(e => e.event === "report generated");
|
|
509
|
+
if (templateReport) {
|
|
510
|
+
const integrationEvents = record.filter(e => e.event === "integration connected");
|
|
511
|
+
integrationEvents.forEach(ie => {
|
|
512
|
+
if (chance.bool({ likelihood: INTEGRATION_REPORT_CLONE_LIKELIHOOD })) {
|
|
513
|
+
record.push({
|
|
514
|
+
...templateReport,
|
|
515
|
+
time: dayjs(ie.time).add(chance.integer({ min: 1, max: 5 }), "days").toISOString(),
|
|
516
|
+
user_id: ie.user_id,
|
|
517
|
+
insert_id: chance.guid(), // clones must not share the template's insert_id (Mixpanel dedup)
|
|
518
|
+
report_type: "integration_summary",
|
|
519
|
+
report_pages: chance.integer({ min: 5, max: 25 }),
|
|
520
|
+
});
|
|
521
|
+
}
|
|
522
|
+
});
|
|
523
|
+
}
|
|
524
|
+
}
|
|
525
|
+
|
|
526
|
+
// H5: ALERT FATIGUE — users with >30 stockout alerts get increasing
|
|
527
|
+
// response_time_hours starting at the 20th alert.
|
|
528
|
+
const alertEvents = record.filter(e => e.event === "stockout alert");
|
|
529
|
+
if (alertEvents.length > ALERT_FATIGUE_THRESHOLD) {
|
|
530
|
+
alertEvents.forEach((alert, idx) => {
|
|
531
|
+
if (idx >= ALERT_FATIGUE_START_IDX) {
|
|
532
|
+
const fatigueMultiplier = ALERT_FATIGUE_BASE_MULT + ((idx - ALERT_FATIGUE_START_IDX) / alertEvents.length) * ALERT_FATIGUE_RAMP_MULT;
|
|
533
|
+
alert.response_time_hours = Math.floor((alert.response_time_hours || 4) * fatigueMultiplier);
|
|
534
|
+
}
|
|
535
|
+
});
|
|
536
|
+
}
|
|
537
|
+
|
|
538
|
+
// H9: INVENTORY-CHECK MAGIC NUMBER (no flags) — sweet 5-15 inventory
|
|
539
|
+
// checks → PO quantity x1.4; over 16+ → drop 60% of PO created events.
|
|
540
|
+
const invCheckCount = record.filter(e => e.event === "inventory checked").length;
|
|
541
|
+
if (invCheckCount >= INVENTORY_SWEET_MIN && invCheckCount <= INVENTORY_SWEET_MAX) {
|
|
542
|
+
record.forEach(e => {
|
|
543
|
+
if (e.event === "purchase order created" && typeof e.quantity === "number") {
|
|
544
|
+
e.quantity = Math.round(e.quantity * INVENTORY_PO_QUANTITY_BOOST);
|
|
545
|
+
}
|
|
546
|
+
});
|
|
547
|
+
} else if (invCheckCount >= INVENTORY_OVER_THRESHOLD) {
|
|
548
|
+
for (let i = record.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
|
|
549
|
+
if (record[i].event === "purchase order created" && chance.bool({ likelihood: INVENTORY_OVER_PO_DROP_LIKELIHOOD })) {
|
|
550
|
+
record.splice(i, 1);
|
|
551
|
+
}
|
|
552
|
+
}
|
|
553
|
+
}
|
|
554
|
+
|
|
555
|
+
return record;
|
|
556
|
+
}
|
|
557
|
+
|
|
558
|
+
// ── CONFIG ──
|
|
559
|
+
/** @type {Config} */
|
|
560
|
+
const config = {
|
|
561
|
+
version: 2,
|
|
562
|
+
seed: SEED,
|
|
563
|
+
datasetStart: DATASET_START,
|
|
564
|
+
datasetEnd: DATASET_END,
|
|
565
|
+
avgEventsPerUserPerDay: EVENTS_PER_DAY,
|
|
566
|
+
numUsers: NUM_USERS,
|
|
567
|
+
format: "json",
|
|
568
|
+
gzip: true,
|
|
569
|
+
credentials: {
|
|
570
|
+
token,
|
|
571
|
+
},
|
|
572
|
+
switches: {
|
|
573
|
+
hasSessionIds: true,
|
|
574
|
+
alsoInferFunnels: false,
|
|
575
|
+
hasLocation: true,
|
|
576
|
+
hasAndroidDevices: false,
|
|
577
|
+
hasIOSDevices: false,
|
|
578
|
+
hasDesktopDevices: true,
|
|
579
|
+
hasBrowser: true,
|
|
580
|
+
hasCampaigns: false,
|
|
581
|
+
isAnonymous: false,
|
|
582
|
+
hasAdSpend: false,
|
|
583
|
+
hasAvatar: true,
|
|
584
|
+
},
|
|
585
|
+
identity: {
|
|
586
|
+
avgDevicePerUser: 2,
|
|
587
|
+
},
|
|
588
|
+
concurrency: 1,
|
|
589
|
+
writeToDisk: false,
|
|
590
|
+
scdProps: {
|
|
591
|
+
company_tier: {
|
|
592
|
+
values: ["trial", "starter", "professional", "enterprise"],
|
|
593
|
+
frequency: "month",
|
|
594
|
+
timing: "fuzzy",
|
|
595
|
+
max: 6
|
|
596
|
+
}
|
|
597
|
+
},
|
|
598
|
+
mirrorProps: {},
|
|
599
|
+
lookupTables: [],
|
|
600
|
+
|
|
601
|
+
// -- Events (17) --------------------------------------------------
|
|
602
|
+
events: [
|
|
603
|
+
{
|
|
604
|
+
event: "account created",
|
|
605
|
+
weight: 1,
|
|
606
|
+
isFirstEvent: true,
|
|
607
|
+
isAuthEvent: true,
|
|
608
|
+
properties: {
|
|
609
|
+
referral_source: ["organic", "partner_referral", "google_search", "trade_show", "linkedin"],
|
|
610
|
+
},
|
|
611
|
+
},
|
|
612
|
+
{
|
|
613
|
+
event: "inventory checked",
|
|
614
|
+
weight: 8,
|
|
615
|
+
isStrictEvent: false,
|
|
616
|
+
properties: {
|
|
617
|
+
warehouse_id: chance.pickone.bind(chance, warehouseIds),
|
|
618
|
+
sku_category: ["electronics", "apparel", "food_beverage", "pharma", "raw_materials", "packaging", "automotive_parts"],
|
|
619
|
+
stock_level: u.weighNumRange(0, 5000, 0.4, 500),
|
|
620
|
+
reorder_point: u.weighNumRange(10, 500, 0.5, 100),
|
|
621
|
+
reorder_method: ["manual"],
|
|
622
|
+
},
|
|
623
|
+
},
|
|
624
|
+
{
|
|
625
|
+
event: "stockout alert",
|
|
626
|
+
weight: 5,
|
|
627
|
+
isStrictEvent: false,
|
|
628
|
+
properties: {
|
|
629
|
+
warehouse_id: chance.pickone.bind(chance, warehouseIds),
|
|
630
|
+
sku_category: ["electronics", "apparel", "food_beverage", "pharma", "raw_materials", "packaging"],
|
|
631
|
+
items_affected: u.weighNumRange(1, 50, 0.4, 5),
|
|
632
|
+
severity: ["low", "medium", "medium", "high", "critical"],
|
|
633
|
+
response_time_hours: u.weighNumRange(0.5, 48, 0.3, 4),
|
|
634
|
+
},
|
|
635
|
+
},
|
|
636
|
+
{
|
|
637
|
+
event: "purchase order created",
|
|
638
|
+
weight: 5,
|
|
639
|
+
isStrictEvent: false,
|
|
640
|
+
properties: {
|
|
641
|
+
supplier_id: chance.pickone.bind(chance, supplierIds),
|
|
642
|
+
sku_category: ["electronics", "apparel", "food_beverage", "pharma", "raw_materials", "packaging", "automotive_parts"],
|
|
643
|
+
quantity: u.weighNumRange(10, 5000, 0.3, 200),
|
|
644
|
+
unit_cost: u.weighNumRange(5, 200, 0.4, 50),
|
|
645
|
+
priority: ["standard", "standard", "standard", "expedited", "urgent"],
|
|
646
|
+
estimated_delivery_days: u.weighNumRange(1, 30, 0.4, 7),
|
|
647
|
+
},
|
|
648
|
+
},
|
|
649
|
+
{
|
|
650
|
+
event: "order received",
|
|
651
|
+
weight: 4,
|
|
652
|
+
properties: {
|
|
653
|
+
warehouse_id: chance.pickone.bind(chance, warehouseIds),
|
|
654
|
+
supplier_id: chance.pickone.bind(chance, supplierIds),
|
|
655
|
+
quantity_received: u.weighNumRange(10, 5000, 0.3, 200),
|
|
656
|
+
quantity_damaged: u.weighNumRange(0, 20, 0.2),
|
|
657
|
+
receiving_time_hours: u.weighNumRange(0.5, 8, 0.5, 2),
|
|
658
|
+
},
|
|
659
|
+
},
|
|
660
|
+
{
|
|
661
|
+
event: "shipment tracked",
|
|
662
|
+
weight: 6,
|
|
663
|
+
properties: {
|
|
664
|
+
carrier: ["fedex", "ups", "dhl", "usps", "freight_line", "regional_courier"],
|
|
665
|
+
shipment_status: ["in_transit", "in_transit", "in_transit", "delivered", "delayed", "exception"],
|
|
666
|
+
origin_warehouse: chance.pickone.bind(chance, warehouseIds),
|
|
667
|
+
estimated_days: u.weighNumRange(1, 14, 0.4, 3),
|
|
668
|
+
weight_kg: u.weighNumRange(1, 2000, 0.3, 50),
|
|
669
|
+
},
|
|
670
|
+
},
|
|
671
|
+
{
|
|
672
|
+
event: "supplier contacted",
|
|
673
|
+
weight: 3,
|
|
674
|
+
properties: {
|
|
675
|
+
supplier_id: chance.pickone.bind(chance, supplierIds),
|
|
676
|
+
contact_reason: ["price_negotiation", "order_status", "quality_issue", "new_product", "contract_renewal", "returns"],
|
|
677
|
+
contact_method: ["email", "email", "phone", "portal"],
|
|
678
|
+
supplier_access: ["email_only"],
|
|
679
|
+
},
|
|
680
|
+
},
|
|
681
|
+
{
|
|
682
|
+
event: "integration connected",
|
|
683
|
+
weight: 2,
|
|
684
|
+
isStrictEvent: false,
|
|
685
|
+
properties: {
|
|
686
|
+
integration_type: ["erp", "accounting", "shipping", "ecommerce", "crm", "bi_tool"],
|
|
687
|
+
integration_name: ["SAP", "QuickBooks", "ShipStation", "Shopify", "Salesforce", "NetSuite", "Xero"],
|
|
688
|
+
setup_time_minutes: u.weighNumRange(5, 120, 0.4, 30),
|
|
689
|
+
},
|
|
690
|
+
},
|
|
691
|
+
{
|
|
692
|
+
event: "report generated",
|
|
693
|
+
weight: 4,
|
|
694
|
+
isStrictEvent: false,
|
|
695
|
+
properties: {
|
|
696
|
+
report_type: ["inventory_summary", "order_history", "supplier_performance", "cost_analysis", "forecast", "compliance"],
|
|
697
|
+
report_pages: u.weighNumRange(1, 50, 0.4, 20),
|
|
698
|
+
export_format: ["pdf", "csv", "xlsx"],
|
|
699
|
+
time_range_days: [7, 14, 30, 30, 90],
|
|
700
|
+
},
|
|
701
|
+
},
|
|
702
|
+
{
|
|
703
|
+
event: "alert configured",
|
|
704
|
+
weight: 2,
|
|
705
|
+
isStrictEvent: false,
|
|
706
|
+
properties: {
|
|
707
|
+
alert_type: ["low_stock", "delivery_delay", "price_change", "quality_threshold", "expiry_warning"],
|
|
708
|
+
threshold_value: u.weighNumRange(1, 500, 0.4, 50),
|
|
709
|
+
notification_channel: ["email", "email", "sms", "push", "slack"],
|
|
710
|
+
},
|
|
711
|
+
},
|
|
712
|
+
{
|
|
713
|
+
event: "warehouse transfer",
|
|
714
|
+
weight: 3,
|
|
715
|
+
properties: {
|
|
716
|
+
from_warehouse: chance.pickone.bind(chance, warehouseIds),
|
|
717
|
+
to_warehouse: chance.pickone.bind(chance, warehouseIds),
|
|
718
|
+
sku_category: ["electronics", "apparel", "food_beverage", "pharma", "raw_materials"],
|
|
719
|
+
transfer_quantity: u.weighNumRange(10, 1000, 0.4, 100),
|
|
720
|
+
transfer_reason: ["rebalance", "demand_shift", "consolidation", "overflow", "seasonal"],
|
|
721
|
+
},
|
|
722
|
+
},
|
|
723
|
+
{
|
|
724
|
+
event: "quality inspection",
|
|
725
|
+
weight: 2,
|
|
726
|
+
properties: {
|
|
727
|
+
warehouse_id: chance.pickone.bind(chance, warehouseIds),
|
|
728
|
+
inspection_result: ["pass", "pass", "pass", "pass", "minor_issue", "major_issue", "fail"],
|
|
729
|
+
items_inspected: u.weighNumRange(10, 500, 0.4, 50),
|
|
730
|
+
defect_rate_pct: u.weighNumRange(0, 15, 0.3, 2),
|
|
731
|
+
},
|
|
732
|
+
},
|
|
733
|
+
{
|
|
734
|
+
event: "invoice processed",
|
|
735
|
+
weight: 3,
|
|
736
|
+
properties: {
|
|
737
|
+
supplier_id: chance.pickone.bind(chance, supplierIds),
|
|
738
|
+
invoice_amount: u.weighNumRange(100, 50000, 0.3, 2500),
|
|
739
|
+
payment_terms: ["net_30", "net_30", "net_60", "net_15", "on_receipt"],
|
|
740
|
+
payment_status: ["paid", "paid", "paid", "pending", "overdue"],
|
|
741
|
+
},
|
|
742
|
+
},
|
|
743
|
+
{
|
|
744
|
+
event: "notification received",
|
|
745
|
+
weight: 6,
|
|
746
|
+
properties: {
|
|
747
|
+
notification_type: ["low_stock_alert", "low_stock_alert", "delivery_update", "order_confirmation", "invoice_due", "system_update"],
|
|
748
|
+
channel: ["email", "email", "push", "sms"],
|
|
749
|
+
opened: [true, true, true, false],
|
|
750
|
+
},
|
|
751
|
+
},
|
|
752
|
+
{
|
|
753
|
+
event: "support ticket",
|
|
754
|
+
weight: 1,
|
|
755
|
+
properties: {
|
|
756
|
+
category: ["billing", "technical", "integration", "data_import", "feature_request", "training"],
|
|
757
|
+
priority: ["low", "low", "medium", "medium", "high"],
|
|
758
|
+
resolution_hours: u.weighNumRange(1, 72, 0.4, 12),
|
|
759
|
+
},
|
|
760
|
+
},
|
|
761
|
+
{
|
|
762
|
+
event: "app session",
|
|
763
|
+
weight: 7,
|
|
764
|
+
properties: {
|
|
765
|
+
session_duration_sec: u.weighNumRange(30, 3600, 0.4, 300),
|
|
766
|
+
pages_viewed: u.weighNumRange(1, 20, 0.5, 5),
|
|
767
|
+
},
|
|
768
|
+
},
|
|
769
|
+
{
|
|
770
|
+
event: "account deactivated",
|
|
771
|
+
weight: 1,
|
|
772
|
+
isChurnEvent: true,
|
|
773
|
+
returnLikelihood: 0.10,
|
|
774
|
+
isStrictEvent: true,
|
|
775
|
+
properties: {
|
|
776
|
+
reason: ["too_expensive", "switched_competitor", "business_closed", "missing_features", "poor_support"],
|
|
777
|
+
},
|
|
778
|
+
},
|
|
779
|
+
],
|
|
780
|
+
|
|
781
|
+
// -- Funnels (5) --------------------------------------------------
|
|
782
|
+
funnels: [
|
|
783
|
+
{
|
|
784
|
+
name: "Onboarding",
|
|
785
|
+
sequence: ["account created", "inventory checked", "integration connected", "report generated"],
|
|
786
|
+
conversionRate: 40,
|
|
787
|
+
order: "sequential",
|
|
788
|
+
isFirstFunnel: true,
|
|
789
|
+
timeToConvert: 72,
|
|
790
|
+
weight: 3,
|
|
791
|
+
},
|
|
792
|
+
{
|
|
793
|
+
name: "Order Fulfillment",
|
|
794
|
+
sequence: ["inventory checked", "purchase order created", "order received", "shipment tracked"],
|
|
795
|
+
conversionRate: 35,
|
|
796
|
+
order: "sequential",
|
|
797
|
+
timeToConvert: 168,
|
|
798
|
+
weight: 5,
|
|
799
|
+
reentry: true,
|
|
800
|
+
},
|
|
801
|
+
{
|
|
802
|
+
name: "Supplier Management",
|
|
803
|
+
sequence: ["supplier contacted", "purchase order created", "invoice processed"],
|
|
804
|
+
conversionRate: 45,
|
|
805
|
+
order: "sequential",
|
|
806
|
+
timeToConvert: 336,
|
|
807
|
+
weight: 3,
|
|
808
|
+
},
|
|
809
|
+
{
|
|
810
|
+
name: "Integration Setup",
|
|
811
|
+
sequence: ["integration connected", "report generated", "alert configured"],
|
|
812
|
+
conversionRate: 30,
|
|
813
|
+
order: "sequential",
|
|
814
|
+
timeToConvert: 48,
|
|
815
|
+
weight: 2,
|
|
816
|
+
},
|
|
817
|
+
{
|
|
818
|
+
name: "Alert Response",
|
|
819
|
+
sequence: ["stockout alert", "purchase order created", "order received"],
|
|
820
|
+
conversionRate: 50,
|
|
821
|
+
order: "sequential",
|
|
822
|
+
timeToConvert: 120,
|
|
823
|
+
weight: 3,
|
|
824
|
+
},
|
|
825
|
+
],
|
|
826
|
+
|
|
827
|
+
// -- SuperProps ----------------------------------------------------
|
|
828
|
+
superProps: {
|
|
829
|
+
Platform: ["web", "web", "desktop_app"],
|
|
830
|
+
subscription_plan: ["free_trial", "free_trial", "starter", "starter", "professional", "enterprise"],
|
|
831
|
+
},
|
|
832
|
+
|
|
833
|
+
// -- UserProps -----------------------------------------------------
|
|
834
|
+
userProps: {
|
|
835
|
+
company_tier: ["small_business"],
|
|
836
|
+
warehouse_count: u.weighNumRange(1, 10, 0.4, 2),
|
|
837
|
+
employee_count: u.weighNumRange(1, 500, 0.3, 25),
|
|
838
|
+
industry: ["retail", "manufacturing", "food_beverage", "pharma", "electronics"],
|
|
839
|
+
integration_count: [0],
|
|
840
|
+
Platform: ["web", "web", "desktop_app"],
|
|
841
|
+
subscription_plan: ["free_trial", "free_trial", "starter", "starter", "professional", "enterprise"],
|
|
842
|
+
},
|
|
843
|
+
|
|
844
|
+
// -- Phase 2: Personas --------------------------------------------
|
|
845
|
+
personas: [
|
|
846
|
+
{
|
|
847
|
+
name: "enterprise_ops",
|
|
848
|
+
weight: 15,
|
|
849
|
+
eventMultiplier: 5.0,
|
|
850
|
+
conversionModifier: 1.5,
|
|
851
|
+
churnRate: 0.01,
|
|
852
|
+
properties: {
|
|
853
|
+
company_tier: "enterprise",
|
|
854
|
+
segment: "enterprise_ops",
|
|
855
|
+
},
|
|
856
|
+
},
|
|
857
|
+
{
|
|
858
|
+
name: "mid_market",
|
|
859
|
+
weight: 35,
|
|
860
|
+
eventMultiplier: 1.5,
|
|
861
|
+
conversionModifier: 1.0,
|
|
862
|
+
churnRate: 0.05,
|
|
863
|
+
properties: {
|
|
864
|
+
company_tier: "mid_market",
|
|
865
|
+
segment: "mid_market",
|
|
866
|
+
},
|
|
867
|
+
},
|
|
868
|
+
{
|
|
869
|
+
name: "small_business",
|
|
870
|
+
weight: 40,
|
|
871
|
+
eventMultiplier: 0.8,
|
|
872
|
+
conversionModifier: 0.7,
|
|
873
|
+
churnRate: 0.10,
|
|
874
|
+
properties: {
|
|
875
|
+
company_tier: "small_business",
|
|
876
|
+
segment: "small_business",
|
|
877
|
+
},
|
|
878
|
+
},
|
|
879
|
+
{
|
|
880
|
+
name: "trial_explorer",
|
|
881
|
+
weight: 10,
|
|
882
|
+
eventMultiplier: 0.4,
|
|
883
|
+
conversionModifier: 0.3,
|
|
884
|
+
churnRate: 0.4,
|
|
885
|
+
properties: {
|
|
886
|
+
company_tier: "trial",
|
|
887
|
+
segment: "trial_explorer",
|
|
888
|
+
},
|
|
889
|
+
activeWindow: { maxDays: 14 },
|
|
890
|
+
},
|
|
891
|
+
],
|
|
892
|
+
|
|
893
|
+
// -- Phase 2: World Events ----------------------------------------
|
|
894
|
+
worldEvents: [
|
|
895
|
+
{
|
|
896
|
+
name: "supply_chain_disruption",
|
|
897
|
+
type: "outage",
|
|
898
|
+
startDay: 35,
|
|
899
|
+
duration: 5,
|
|
900
|
+
volumeMultiplier: 3.0,
|
|
901
|
+
affectsEvents: ["stockout alert"],
|
|
902
|
+
injectProps: { disruption: "supply_chain_disruption" },
|
|
903
|
+
aftermath: { duration: 5, volumeMultiplier: 1.5 },
|
|
904
|
+
},
|
|
905
|
+
{
|
|
906
|
+
name: "holiday_surge",
|
|
907
|
+
type: "campaign",
|
|
908
|
+
startDay: 70,
|
|
909
|
+
duration: 7,
|
|
910
|
+
volumeMultiplier: 2.0,
|
|
911
|
+
affectsEvents: ["purchase order created", "order received", "shipment tracked"],
|
|
912
|
+
injectProps: { surge: "holiday_prep" },
|
|
913
|
+
},
|
|
914
|
+
],
|
|
915
|
+
|
|
916
|
+
hook(record, type, meta) {
|
|
917
|
+
if (type === "user") return handleUserHooks(record);
|
|
918
|
+
if (type === "event") return handleEventHooks(record);
|
|
919
|
+
if (type === "funnel-post") return handleFunnelPostHooks(record, meta);
|
|
920
|
+
if (type === "everything") return handleEverythingHooks(record, meta);
|
|
921
|
+
return record;
|
|
922
|
+
},
|
|
923
|
+
};
|
|
924
|
+
|
|
925
|
+
export default config;
|
|
926
|
+
|
|
927
|
+
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
|
928
|
+
// STORIES — v1.6 machine-checkable verification contract
|
|
929
|
+
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
|
930
|
+
//
|
|
931
|
+
// Measurement doctrine (why each read is shaped the way it is):
|
|
932
|
+
//
|
|
933
|
+
// - IDENTITY. avgDevicePerUser: 2, and "account created" is both
|
|
934
|
+
// isAuthEvent and isFirstEvent, so born users auth on their first
|
|
935
|
+
// event. The ID_CTE resolves device-only rows through the profile
|
|
936
|
+
// device pool (stored under the legacy "anonymousIds" key).
|
|
937
|
+
//
|
|
938
|
+
// - CLONE EXCLUSION (H1 vs H4). H4's cloned reports carry
|
|
939
|
+
// report_type = 'integration_summary' — a value outside the organic
|
|
940
|
+
// pool — and uniform report_pages [5, 25] stamped AFTER H1's
|
|
941
|
+
// month-end multiplier runs. Clones therefore dilute any pooled
|
|
942
|
+
// month-end read; H1 filters them out (and uses them as its placebo
|
|
943
|
+
// arm: their day-of-month page ratio must be ~1.0).
|
|
944
|
+
//
|
|
945
|
+
// - ONE-SIDED DELETIONS. Stockout alerts are deleted only for
|
|
946
|
+
// enterprise (H3), alert-configured only for small_business (H8),
|
|
947
|
+
// POs only for 16+ inventory checkers (H9), trial events only after
|
|
948
|
+
// day 7 (H6). H6 runs BEFORE both count-threshold hooks (H4, H9), so
|
|
949
|
+
// output integration-connected and inventory-check counts equal the
|
|
950
|
+
// hook-time counts those thresholds keyed on — cohort membership is
|
|
951
|
+
// exactly recoverable from the output.
|
|
952
|
+
//
|
|
953
|
+
// - ACTIVITY COUPLING (H9 volume read). Inventory-check count is
|
|
954
|
+
// coupled to total activity, so cross-arm PO-per-user levels are
|
|
955
|
+
// meaningless. The read uses PO-per-inventory-check within the
|
|
956
|
+
// small_business tier only (constant conversionModifier), and reads
|
|
957
|
+
// the treated cliff against the adjacent untreated bin, with a
|
|
958
|
+
// flatness guard on the pre-cliff bins (measured organic gradient:
|
|
959
|
+
// 1.62 → 1.62 → 1.46 across bins 4-7/8-11/12-15).
|
|
960
|
+
//
|
|
961
|
+
// - RELATIVE-DAY DiD (H6). Trial users lose 50% of events after day 7
|
|
962
|
+
// from first event. Cross-tier LEVELS differ (activeWindow 14d,
|
|
963
|
+
// multipliers), but each tier's own rate(day 8-13)/rate(day 1-6)
|
|
964
|
+
// cancels its level; small_business is the untreated comparator.
|
|
965
|
+
// Derivation: DiD = 0.5 x (organic trial ratio / organic smb ratio);
|
|
966
|
+
// the organic composition term is bounded [0.9, 1.2] (smb measured
|
|
967
|
+
// 0.91, mid 0.96, enterprise 1.06 — flat-to-mild-decline across
|
|
968
|
+
// personas), giving [0.45, 0.60]; band [0.44, 0.62].
|
|
969
|
+
//
|
|
970
|
+
// - EMULATOR TTC (H8, H10). Funnel-step conversion and TTC reads go
|
|
971
|
+
// through emulateBreakdown's timeToConvert (Mixpanel-aligned greedy
|
|
972
|
+
// in-window pairing). H10's window = 72h generative x 1.3 max
|
|
973
|
+
// stretch = 93.6h so slow-arm conversions are not right-censored
|
|
974
|
+
// into a fake speedup. Only born-in-dataset users (~12%) have
|
|
975
|
+
// "account created" inside the window — cohorts are structurally
|
|
976
|
+
// ~1/8 of numUsers; minCohort reflects that.
|
|
977
|
+
//
|
|
978
|
+
// - PERSONA CONVERSION GAP (H8). small_business carries an organic
|
|
979
|
+
// conversionModifier gap vs mid_market on EVERY funnel. The placebo
|
|
980
|
+
// assertion pins that organic gap on the untreated Supplier
|
|
981
|
+
// Management funnel (measured 0.73; Alert Response cross-check
|
|
982
|
+
// 0.85); the treated Integration Setup ratio must sit at
|
|
983
|
+
// 0.65 x organic [0.73, 0.85] x multi-candidate attenuation
|
|
984
|
+
// [1.0, 1.12] = [0.47, 0.62].
|
|
985
|
+
|
|
986
|
+
const ID_CTE = `
|
|
987
|
+
us AS (SELECT * FROM read_json_auto('{{PREFIX}}-USERS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true)),
|
|
988
|
+
dm AS (SELECT unnest("anonymousIds") AS device_id, distinct_id FROM us),
|
|
989
|
+
ev AS (SELECT coalesce(m.distinct_id::VARCHAR, e.user_id::VARCHAR, e.device_id::VARCHAR) AS uid,
|
|
990
|
+
e.time::TIMESTAMP AS t, e.*
|
|
991
|
+
FROM read_json_auto('{{PREFIX}}-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true) e
|
|
992
|
+
LEFT JOIN dm m ON e.device_id = m.device_id)`;
|
|
993
|
+
|
|
994
|
+
const PU_CTE = `
|
|
995
|
+
pu AS (SELECT uid, count(*) AS total,
|
|
996
|
+
count(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'inventory checked') AS inv,
|
|
997
|
+
count(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'purchase order created') AS po,
|
|
998
|
+
count(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'stockout alert') AS so,
|
|
999
|
+
count(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'integration connected') AS ic,
|
|
1000
|
+
count(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'report generated' AND report_type = 'integration_summary') AS clones,
|
|
1001
|
+
min(t) AS first_t
|
|
1002
|
+
FROM ev GROUP BY 1)`;
|
|
1003
|
+
|
|
1004
|
+
const cellsOf = (rows, key) => Object.fromEntries((rows || []).map((r) => [r[key], r]));
|
|
1005
|
+
|
|
1006
|
+
export const stories = [
|
|
1007
|
+
{
|
|
1008
|
+
id: "H1-month-end-pages",
|
|
1009
|
+
hook: "H1",
|
|
1010
|
+
archetype: "temporal-inflection",
|
|
1011
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1012
|
+
`Reports on calendar days >= ${MONTH_END_DAY_THRESHOLD} get report_pages x${MONTH_END_PAGES_MULT} ` +
|
|
1013
|
+
"(floored). The read excludes H4's clones (report_type 'integration_summary' — stamped after " +
|
|
1014
|
+
"H1 runs, with uniform [5, 25] pages regardless of day). Organic pool mean ~22 pages, so the " +
|
|
1015
|
+
`floor costs ~1%: expected ratio ~${(MONTH_END_PAGES_MULT - 0.03).toFixed(2)}, band [2.25, 2.65]. ` +
|
|
1016
|
+
"The clones themselves are the placebo arm: their day-of-month ratio must sit in [0.88, 1.12].",
|
|
1017
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1018
|
+
{
|
|
1019
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1020
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1021
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}
|
|
1022
|
+
SELECT CASE WHEN extract(day FROM t) >= ${MONTH_END_DAY_THRESHOLD} THEN 'me' ELSE 'mid' END AS bucket,
|
|
1023
|
+
count(*)::BIGINT AS user_count, avg(report_pages) AS pages
|
|
1024
|
+
FROM ev WHERE event = 'report generated' AND report_type <> 'integration_summary'
|
|
1025
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1026
|
+
},
|
|
1027
|
+
select: {
|
|
1028
|
+
me: { where: { bucket: "me" } },
|
|
1029
|
+
mid: { where: { bucket: "mid" } },
|
|
1030
|
+
},
|
|
1031
|
+
expect: { metric: "me.pages / mid.pages", op: "between", target: [2.25, 2.65] },
|
|
1032
|
+
minCohort: 5000,
|
|
1033
|
+
},
|
|
1034
|
+
{
|
|
1035
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1036
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1037
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}
|
|
1038
|
+
SELECT CASE WHEN extract(day FROM t) >= ${MONTH_END_DAY_THRESHOLD} THEN 'me' ELSE 'mid' END AS bucket,
|
|
1039
|
+
count(*)::BIGINT AS user_count, avg(report_pages) AS pages
|
|
1040
|
+
FROM ev WHERE event = 'report generated' AND report_type = 'integration_summary'
|
|
1041
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1042
|
+
},
|
|
1043
|
+
select: {
|
|
1044
|
+
me: { where: { bucket: "me" } },
|
|
1045
|
+
mid: { where: { bucket: "mid" } },
|
|
1046
|
+
},
|
|
1047
|
+
expect: { metric: "me.pages / mid.pages", op: "between", target: [0.88, 1.12] },
|
|
1048
|
+
minCohort: 4000,
|
|
1049
|
+
},
|
|
1050
|
+
],
|
|
1051
|
+
},
|
|
1052
|
+
{
|
|
1053
|
+
id: "H2-rush-order-premium",
|
|
1054
|
+
hook: "H2",
|
|
1055
|
+
archetype: "cohort-prop-scale",
|
|
1056
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1057
|
+
`'purchase order created' with priority 'urgent' gets unit_cost x${RUSH_ORDER_COST_MULT}, floored. ` +
|
|
1058
|
+
"unit_cost is an iid pool draw (organic mean ~93), priority is an iid 3:1:1 pool, and no other " +
|
|
1059
|
+
"hook touches unit_cost — the urgent/standard mean ratio reads the knob within floor loss " +
|
|
1060
|
+
"(<1%). Band [1.42, 1.58]. 'expedited' is untreated: placebo band [0.94, 1.06].",
|
|
1061
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1062
|
+
{
|
|
1063
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1064
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1065
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}
|
|
1066
|
+
SELECT priority, count(*)::BIGINT AS user_count, avg(unit_cost) AS cost
|
|
1067
|
+
FROM ev WHERE event = 'purchase order created' AND priority IN ('urgent', 'standard')
|
|
1068
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1069
|
+
},
|
|
1070
|
+
select: {
|
|
1071
|
+
urg: { where: { priority: "urgent" } },
|
|
1072
|
+
std: { where: { priority: "standard" } },
|
|
1073
|
+
},
|
|
1074
|
+
expect: { metric: "urg.cost / std.cost", op: "between", target: [1.42, 1.58] },
|
|
1075
|
+
minCohort: 20000,
|
|
1076
|
+
},
|
|
1077
|
+
{
|
|
1078
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1079
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1080
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}
|
|
1081
|
+
SELECT priority, count(*)::BIGINT AS user_count, avg(unit_cost) AS cost
|
|
1082
|
+
FROM ev WHERE event = 'purchase order created' AND priority IN ('expedited', 'standard')
|
|
1083
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1084
|
+
},
|
|
1085
|
+
select: {
|
|
1086
|
+
exp: { where: { priority: "expedited" } },
|
|
1087
|
+
std: { where: { priority: "standard" } },
|
|
1088
|
+
},
|
|
1089
|
+
expect: { metric: "exp.cost / std.cost", op: "between", target: [0.94, 1.06] },
|
|
1090
|
+
minCohort: 20000,
|
|
1091
|
+
},
|
|
1092
|
+
],
|
|
1093
|
+
},
|
|
1094
|
+
{
|
|
1095
|
+
id: "H3-stockout-by-tier",
|
|
1096
|
+
hook: "H3",
|
|
1097
|
+
archetype: "cohort-count-scale",
|
|
1098
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1099
|
+
`Enterprise users get ${ENTERPRISE_STOCKOUT_DROP_LIKELIHOOD}% of stockout alerts removed. ` +
|
|
1100
|
+
"Per-user LEVELS are dominated by persona event multipliers (enterprise 5x), so the read is " +
|
|
1101
|
+
"the stockout-per-inventory-check ratio — both counts scale with the same multiplier, and " +
|
|
1102
|
+
"the supply-chain worldEvent (x3 stockouts, days 35-40) hits all tiers alike and cancels " +
|
|
1103
|
+
"cross-tier. Expected enterprise/small_business = 0.90 x organic composition (~0.98 measured), " +
|
|
1104
|
+
"band [0.83, 0.95]; mid_market placebo [0.93, 1.07].",
|
|
1105
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1106
|
+
{
|
|
1107
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1108
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1109
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}, ${PU_CTE}
|
|
1110
|
+
SELECT u.company_tier AS tier, count(*)::BIGINT AS user_count,
|
|
1111
|
+
sum(p.so)::DOUBLE / sum(p.inv) AS ratio
|
|
1112
|
+
FROM pu p JOIN us u ON u.distinct_id::VARCHAR = p.uid
|
|
1113
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1114
|
+
},
|
|
1115
|
+
select: {
|
|
1116
|
+
ent: { where: { tier: "enterprise" } },
|
|
1117
|
+
smb: { where: { tier: "small_business" } },
|
|
1118
|
+
},
|
|
1119
|
+
expect: { metric: "ent.ratio / smb.ratio", op: "between", target: [0.83, 0.95] },
|
|
1120
|
+
minCohort: 1000,
|
|
1121
|
+
},
|
|
1122
|
+
{
|
|
1123
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1124
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1125
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}, ${PU_CTE}
|
|
1126
|
+
SELECT u.company_tier AS tier, count(*)::BIGINT AS user_count,
|
|
1127
|
+
sum(p.so)::DOUBLE / sum(p.inv) AS ratio
|
|
1128
|
+
FROM pu p JOIN us u ON u.distinct_id::VARCHAR = p.uid
|
|
1129
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1130
|
+
},
|
|
1131
|
+
select: {
|
|
1132
|
+
mid: { where: { tier: "mid_market" } },
|
|
1133
|
+
smb: { where: { tier: "small_business" } },
|
|
1134
|
+
},
|
|
1135
|
+
expect: { metric: "mid.ratio / smb.ratio", op: "between", target: [0.93, 1.07] },
|
|
1136
|
+
minCohort: 2500,
|
|
1137
|
+
},
|
|
1138
|
+
],
|
|
1139
|
+
},
|
|
1140
|
+
{
|
|
1141
|
+
id: "H4-integration-reports",
|
|
1142
|
+
hook: "H4",
|
|
1143
|
+
archetype: "cohort-count-scale",
|
|
1144
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1145
|
+
`Users with >= ${INTEGRATION_THRESHOLD} 'integration connected' events get a cloned ` +
|
|
1146
|
+
`'report generated' per integration at ${INTEGRATION_REPORT_CLONE_LIKELIHOOD}% likelihood, ` +
|
|
1147
|
+
"+1-5 days after the integration, tagged report_type 'integration_summary'. H6 (the only " +
|
|
1148
|
+
"hook that deletes integrations) runs BEFORE H4, so output integration counts equal H4's " +
|
|
1149
|
+
"hook-time counts exactly — the clone cohort is defined on final counts. Clones landing " +
|
|
1150
|
+
"past dataset end are killed by the future-time guard: expected rate = 0.65 x (1 - ~2% " +
|
|
1151
|
+
"edge loss) = 0.637 (measured 0.6315 at iteration). Band [0.58, 0.70]. Users below the " +
|
|
1152
|
+
"threshold must have ZERO clones — leakage is structural, not statistical.",
|
|
1153
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1154
|
+
{
|
|
1155
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1156
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1157
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}, ${PU_CTE}
|
|
1158
|
+
SELECT count(*)::BIGINT AS users, sum(p.clones)::DOUBLE / sum(p.ic) AS rate
|
|
1159
|
+
FROM pu p WHERE p.ic >= ${INTEGRATION_THRESHOLD}`,
|
|
1160
|
+
},
|
|
1161
|
+
assert: (rows) => {
|
|
1162
|
+
const r = rows?.[0];
|
|
1163
|
+
if (!r || Number(r.users) < 5000) {
|
|
1164
|
+
return { verdict: "WEAK", detail: `cohort too small: users=${r?.users ?? 0}` };
|
|
1165
|
+
}
|
|
1166
|
+
const rate = Number(r.rate);
|
|
1167
|
+
const detail = `clones-per-integration=${rate.toFixed(4)} (knob ${INTEGRATION_REPORT_CLONE_LIKELIHOOD}% x ~0.98 future-guard survival; n=${r.users})`;
|
|
1168
|
+
if (rate >= 0.58 && rate <= 0.70) return { verdict: "NAILED", detail };
|
|
1169
|
+
if (rate >= 0.54 && rate <= 0.74) return { verdict: "STRONG", detail };
|
|
1170
|
+
if (rate >= 0.30) return { verdict: "WEAK", detail };
|
|
1171
|
+
return { verdict: "NONE", detail };
|
|
1172
|
+
},
|
|
1173
|
+
},
|
|
1174
|
+
{
|
|
1175
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1176
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1177
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}, ${PU_CTE}
|
|
1178
|
+
SELECT count(*)::BIGINT AS users, avg((p.clones > 0)::INT) AS leak
|
|
1179
|
+
FROM pu p WHERE p.ic < ${INTEGRATION_THRESHOLD}`,
|
|
1180
|
+
},
|
|
1181
|
+
assert: (rows) => {
|
|
1182
|
+
const r = rows?.[0];
|
|
1183
|
+
if (!r || Number(r.users) < 800) {
|
|
1184
|
+
return { verdict: "WEAK", detail: `cohort too small: users=${r?.users ?? 0}` };
|
|
1185
|
+
}
|
|
1186
|
+
const leak = Number(r.leak);
|
|
1187
|
+
const detail = `share of <${INTEGRATION_THRESHOLD}-integration users with any clone=${leak.toFixed(4)} (n=${r.users})`;
|
|
1188
|
+
if (leak <= 0.01) return { verdict: "NAILED", detail };
|
|
1189
|
+
if (leak <= 0.03) return { verdict: "STRONG", detail };
|
|
1190
|
+
return { verdict: "NONE", detail };
|
|
1191
|
+
},
|
|
1192
|
+
},
|
|
1193
|
+
],
|
|
1194
|
+
},
|
|
1195
|
+
{
|
|
1196
|
+
id: "H5-alert-fatigue",
|
|
1197
|
+
hook: "H5",
|
|
1198
|
+
archetype: "temporal-inflection",
|
|
1199
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1200
|
+
`Users with > ${ALERT_FATIGUE_THRESHOLD} stockout alerts get response_time_hours scaled on ` +
|
|
1201
|
+
`alerts from index ${ALERT_FATIGUE_START_IDX} on: x(1.5 + 1.5 x (idx-20)/n). Hook index is ` +
|
|
1202
|
+
"record order, read index is time order — iteration showed the alignment is exact (early-arm " +
|
|
1203
|
+
"placebo 1.000). Reading indexes >= 25 (margin past the boundary), aggregate multiplier ~2.0 " +
|
|
1204
|
+
"for the observed n distribution. Control = users with 20-30 alerts (never treated, same iid " +
|
|
1205
|
+
"response_time pool, mean ~25h). Bands: treated-late/control [1.75, 2.25]; treated-early " +
|
|
1206
|
+
"(idx <= 14, untreated) placebo [0.88, 1.12].",
|
|
1207
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1208
|
+
{
|
|
1209
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1210
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1211
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE},
|
|
1212
|
+
al AS (SELECT uid, response_time_hours AS rt,
|
|
1213
|
+
row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY uid ORDER BY t) - 1 AS idx,
|
|
1214
|
+
count(*) OVER (PARTITION BY uid) AS n
|
|
1215
|
+
FROM ev WHERE event = 'stockout alert')
|
|
1216
|
+
SELECT 'late' AS cell, count(DISTINCT uid)::BIGINT AS user_count, avg(rt) AS rt
|
|
1217
|
+
FROM al WHERE n > ${ALERT_FATIGUE_THRESHOLD} AND idx >= 25
|
|
1218
|
+
UNION ALL
|
|
1219
|
+
SELECT 'ctl', count(DISTINCT uid)::BIGINT, avg(rt)
|
|
1220
|
+
FROM al WHERE n BETWEEN 20 AND ${ALERT_FATIGUE_THRESHOLD}`,
|
|
1221
|
+
},
|
|
1222
|
+
select: {
|
|
1223
|
+
late: { where: { cell: "late" } },
|
|
1224
|
+
ctl: { where: { cell: "ctl" } },
|
|
1225
|
+
},
|
|
1226
|
+
expect: { metric: "late.rt / ctl.rt", op: "between", target: [1.75, 2.25] },
|
|
1227
|
+
minCohort: 500,
|
|
1228
|
+
},
|
|
1229
|
+
{
|
|
1230
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1231
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1232
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE},
|
|
1233
|
+
al AS (SELECT uid, response_time_hours AS rt,
|
|
1234
|
+
row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY uid ORDER BY t) - 1 AS idx,
|
|
1235
|
+
count(*) OVER (PARTITION BY uid) AS n
|
|
1236
|
+
FROM ev WHERE event = 'stockout alert')
|
|
1237
|
+
SELECT 'early' AS cell, count(DISTINCT uid)::BIGINT AS user_count, avg(rt) AS rt
|
|
1238
|
+
FROM al WHERE n > ${ALERT_FATIGUE_THRESHOLD} AND idx <= 14
|
|
1239
|
+
UNION ALL
|
|
1240
|
+
SELECT 'ctl', count(DISTINCT uid)::BIGINT, avg(rt)
|
|
1241
|
+
FROM al WHERE n BETWEEN 20 AND ${ALERT_FATIGUE_THRESHOLD}`,
|
|
1242
|
+
},
|
|
1243
|
+
select: {
|
|
1244
|
+
early: { where: { cell: "early" } },
|
|
1245
|
+
ctl: { where: { cell: "ctl" } },
|
|
1246
|
+
},
|
|
1247
|
+
expect: { metric: "early.rt / ctl.rt", op: "between", target: [0.88, 1.12] },
|
|
1248
|
+
minCohort: 500,
|
|
1249
|
+
},
|
|
1250
|
+
],
|
|
1251
|
+
},
|
|
1252
|
+
{
|
|
1253
|
+
id: "H6-trial-churn",
|
|
1254
|
+
hook: "H6",
|
|
1255
|
+
archetype: "retention-divergence",
|
|
1256
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1257
|
+
`Trial-tier users lose ${TRIAL_CHURN_DROP_LIKELIHOOD}% of events after day ` +
|
|
1258
|
+
`${TRIAL_CHURN_CUTOFF_DAYS} from their first event (v1.6 behavior change: v1.5 keyed on ` +
|
|
1259
|
+
"record.length < 10, which matched ~0.9% of users and never touched trials). Cross-tier " +
|
|
1260
|
+
"levels are incomparable (activeWindow 14d, 0.4x multiplier), so the read is a relative-day " +
|
|
1261
|
+
"DiD: each tier's own rate(day 8-13)/rate(day 1-6) cancels its level. Derivation: DiD = " +
|
|
1262
|
+
"0.5 x (organic trial ratio / organic smb ratio), organic term bounded [0.9, 1.2] from the " +
|
|
1263
|
+
"untreated tiers' spread (smb 0.91, mid 0.96, ent 1.06) => band [0.44, 0.62]. Placebo " +
|
|
1264
|
+
"mid_market/smb [0.92, 1.15].",
|
|
1265
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1266
|
+
{
|
|
1267
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1268
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1269
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE},
|
|
1270
|
+
fe AS (SELECT uid, min(t) AS f FROM ev GROUP BY 1),
|
|
1271
|
+
rd AS (SELECT e.uid, date_diff('day', fe.f, e.t) AS d FROM ev e JOIN fe ON fe.uid = e.uid)
|
|
1272
|
+
SELECT u.company_tier AS tier, count(DISTINCT r.uid)::BIGINT AS user_count,
|
|
1273
|
+
count(*) FILTER (WHERE d BETWEEN 8 AND 13)::DOUBLE / count(*) FILTER (WHERE d BETWEEN 1 AND 6) AS ratio
|
|
1274
|
+
FROM rd r JOIN us u ON u.distinct_id::VARCHAR = r.uid
|
|
1275
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1276
|
+
},
|
|
1277
|
+
select: {
|
|
1278
|
+
trial: { where: { tier: "trial" } },
|
|
1279
|
+
smb: { where: { tier: "small_business" } },
|
|
1280
|
+
},
|
|
1281
|
+
expect: { metric: "trial.ratio / smb.ratio", op: "between", target: [0.44, 0.62] },
|
|
1282
|
+
minCohort: 500,
|
|
1283
|
+
},
|
|
1284
|
+
{
|
|
1285
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1286
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1287
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE},
|
|
1288
|
+
fe AS (SELECT uid, min(t) AS f FROM ev GROUP BY 1),
|
|
1289
|
+
rd AS (SELECT e.uid, date_diff('day', fe.f, e.t) AS d FROM ev e JOIN fe ON fe.uid = e.uid)
|
|
1290
|
+
SELECT u.company_tier AS tier, count(DISTINCT r.uid)::BIGINT AS user_count,
|
|
1291
|
+
count(*) FILTER (WHERE d BETWEEN 8 AND 13)::DOUBLE / count(*) FILTER (WHERE d BETWEEN 1 AND 6) AS ratio
|
|
1292
|
+
FROM rd r JOIN us u ON u.distinct_id::VARCHAR = r.uid
|
|
1293
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1294
|
+
},
|
|
1295
|
+
select: {
|
|
1296
|
+
mid: { where: { tier: "mid_market" } },
|
|
1297
|
+
smb: { where: { tier: "small_business" } },
|
|
1298
|
+
},
|
|
1299
|
+
expect: { metric: "mid.ratio / smb.ratio", op: "between", target: [0.92, 1.15] },
|
|
1300
|
+
minCohort: 2500,
|
|
1301
|
+
},
|
|
1302
|
+
],
|
|
1303
|
+
},
|
|
1304
|
+
{
|
|
1305
|
+
id: "H7-enterprise-profiles",
|
|
1306
|
+
hook: "H7",
|
|
1307
|
+
archetype: "cohort-prop-scale",
|
|
1308
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1309
|
+
"The user hook overwrites warehouse_count and employee_count per tier with disjoint uniform " +
|
|
1310
|
+
"ranges: enterprise wh [5, 15] emp [200, 2000]; mid_market wh [2, 6] emp [20, 200]; " +
|
|
1311
|
+
"small_business wh [1, 3] emp [5, 80]; trial wh = 1 emp [1, 10]. Personas cover 100% of " +
|
|
1312
|
+
"users, so every profile is overwritten and the ranges are EXACT — min/max per tier must sit " +
|
|
1313
|
+
"inside the knob ranges with zero out-of-range profiles for NAILED.",
|
|
1314
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1315
|
+
{
|
|
1316
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1317
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1318
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}
|
|
1319
|
+
SELECT company_tier AS tier, count(*)::BIGINT AS user_count,
|
|
1320
|
+
avg((CASE company_tier
|
|
1321
|
+
WHEN 'enterprise' THEN (warehouse_count BETWEEN 5 AND 15 AND employee_count BETWEEN 200 AND 2000)
|
|
1322
|
+
WHEN 'mid_market' THEN (warehouse_count BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AND employee_count BETWEEN 20 AND 200)
|
|
1323
|
+
WHEN 'small_business' THEN (warehouse_count BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AND employee_count BETWEEN 5 AND 80)
|
|
1324
|
+
WHEN 'trial' THEN (warehouse_count = 1 AND employee_count BETWEEN 1 AND 10)
|
|
1325
|
+
END)::INT) AS in_range
|
|
1326
|
+
FROM us GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1327
|
+
},
|
|
1328
|
+
assert: (rows) => {
|
|
1329
|
+
const by = cellsOf(rows, "tier");
|
|
1330
|
+
const ent = by.enterprise, mid = by.mid_market, smb = by.small_business, tri = by.trial;
|
|
1331
|
+
if (!ent || !mid || !smb || !tri ||
|
|
1332
|
+
Number(ent.user_count) < 800 || Number(mid.user_count) < 2000 ||
|
|
1333
|
+
Number(smb.user_count) < 2000 || Number(tri.user_count) < 400) {
|
|
1334
|
+
return { verdict: "WEAK", detail: `cohort too small: ent=${ent?.user_count ?? 0} mid=${mid?.user_count ?? 0} smb=${smb?.user_count ?? 0} trial=${tri?.user_count ?? 0}` };
|
|
1335
|
+
}
|
|
1336
|
+
const shares = [ent, mid, smb, tri].map((c) => Number(c.in_range));
|
|
1337
|
+
const detail = `in-range shares ent=${shares[0].toFixed(4)} mid=${shares[1].toFixed(4)} smb=${shares[2].toFixed(4)} trial=${shares[3].toFixed(4)}`;
|
|
1338
|
+
if (shares.every((s) => s === 1)) return { verdict: "NAILED", detail };
|
|
1339
|
+
if (shares.every((s) => s >= 0.99)) return { verdict: "STRONG", detail };
|
|
1340
|
+
if (shares.every((s) => s >= 0.9)) return { verdict: "WEAK", detail };
|
|
1341
|
+
return { verdict: "NONE", detail };
|
|
1342
|
+
},
|
|
1343
|
+
},
|
|
1344
|
+
],
|
|
1345
|
+
},
|
|
1346
|
+
{
|
|
1347
|
+
id: "H8-smb-conversion-drop",
|
|
1348
|
+
hook: "H8",
|
|
1349
|
+
archetype: "funnel-conversion-by-segment",
|
|
1350
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1351
|
+
`small_business users lose ${SMB_ALERT_DROP_LIKELIHOOD}% of 'alert configured' events — the ` +
|
|
1352
|
+
"last step of Integration Setup. Read through the emulator's greedy in-window pairing " +
|
|
1353
|
+
"(step2->step3 conditional conversion). small_business ALSO carries an organic " +
|
|
1354
|
+
"conversionModifier gap vs mid_market on every funnel, so the treated ratio is " +
|
|
1355
|
+
"0.65 x organic [0.73, 0.85] x multi-candidate attenuation [1.0, 1.12] = [0.47, 0.62] " +
|
|
1356
|
+
"(measured 0.505 at iteration); band [0.44, 0.62]. The untreated Supplier Management funnel " +
|
|
1357
|
+
"pins the organic gap itself: [0.68, 0.90] (measured 0.73; Alert Response cross-check 0.85). " +
|
|
1358
|
+
"The two bands are disjoint — the gap between them IS the engineered effect.",
|
|
1359
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1360
|
+
{
|
|
1361
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1362
|
+
type: "timeToConvert",
|
|
1363
|
+
steps: ["integration connected", "report generated", "alert configured"],
|
|
1364
|
+
breakdownByUserProperty: "company_tier",
|
|
1365
|
+
conversionWindowMs: 48 * 3600 * 1000,
|
|
1366
|
+
},
|
|
1367
|
+
assert: (rows) => {
|
|
1368
|
+
const by = cellsOf(rows, "segment_value");
|
|
1369
|
+
const mid = by.mid_market, smb = by.small_business;
|
|
1370
|
+
const midAtt = Number(mid?.step_counts?.[1] ?? 0), smbAtt = Number(smb?.step_counts?.[1] ?? 0);
|
|
1371
|
+
if (midAtt < 1500 || smbAtt < 1500) {
|
|
1372
|
+
return { verdict: "WEAK", detail: `step-2 cohorts too small: mid=${midAtt} smb=${smbAtt}` };
|
|
1373
|
+
}
|
|
1374
|
+
const convM = Number(mid.step_counts[2]) / midAtt;
|
|
1375
|
+
const convS = Number(smb.step_counts[2]) / smbAtt;
|
|
1376
|
+
const ratio = convS / convM;
|
|
1377
|
+
const detail = `step2->3 conv smb=${convS.toFixed(4)} mid=${convM.toFixed(4)} ratio=${ratio.toFixed(3)} (attempts ${smbAtt}/${midAtt})`;
|
|
1378
|
+
if (ratio >= 0.44 && ratio <= 0.62) return { verdict: "NAILED", detail };
|
|
1379
|
+
if (ratio >= 0.38 && ratio <= 0.70) return { verdict: "STRONG", detail };
|
|
1380
|
+
if (ratio < 0.85) return { verdict: "WEAK", detail };
|
|
1381
|
+
return { verdict: ratio >= 1 ? "INVERSE" : "NONE", detail };
|
|
1382
|
+
},
|
|
1383
|
+
},
|
|
1384
|
+
{
|
|
1385
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1386
|
+
type: "timeToConvert",
|
|
1387
|
+
steps: ["supplier contacted", "purchase order created", "invoice processed"],
|
|
1388
|
+
breakdownByUserProperty: "company_tier",
|
|
1389
|
+
conversionWindowMs: 336 * 3600 * 1000,
|
|
1390
|
+
},
|
|
1391
|
+
assert: (rows) => {
|
|
1392
|
+
const by = cellsOf(rows, "segment_value");
|
|
1393
|
+
const mid = by.mid_market, smb = by.small_business;
|
|
1394
|
+
const midAtt = Number(mid?.step_counts?.[1] ?? 0), smbAtt = Number(smb?.step_counts?.[1] ?? 0);
|
|
1395
|
+
if (midAtt < 2000 || smbAtt < 2000) {
|
|
1396
|
+
return { verdict: "WEAK", detail: `step-2 cohorts too small: mid=${midAtt} smb=${smbAtt}` };
|
|
1397
|
+
}
|
|
1398
|
+
const convM = Number(mid.step_counts[2]) / midAtt;
|
|
1399
|
+
const convS = Number(smb.step_counts[2]) / smbAtt;
|
|
1400
|
+
const ratio = convS / convM;
|
|
1401
|
+
const detail = `placebo (untreated funnel) step2->3 conv smb=${convS.toFixed(4)} mid=${convM.toFixed(4)} ratio=${ratio.toFixed(3)} (attempts ${smbAtt}/${midAtt})`;
|
|
1402
|
+
if (ratio >= 0.68 && ratio <= 0.90) return { verdict: "NAILED", detail };
|
|
1403
|
+
if (ratio >= 0.60 && ratio <= 0.98) return { verdict: "STRONG", detail };
|
|
1404
|
+
if (ratio >= 0.50) return { verdict: "WEAK", detail };
|
|
1405
|
+
return { verdict: "NONE", detail };
|
|
1406
|
+
},
|
|
1407
|
+
},
|
|
1408
|
+
],
|
|
1409
|
+
},
|
|
1410
|
+
{
|
|
1411
|
+
id: "H9-inventory-magic-number",
|
|
1412
|
+
hook: "H9",
|
|
1413
|
+
archetype: "frequency-sweet-spot",
|
|
1414
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1415
|
+
`Sweet spot ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MIN}-${INVENTORY_SWEET_MAX} inventory checks => PO quantity ` +
|
|
1416
|
+
`x${INVENTORY_PO_QUANTITY_BOOST}; ${INVENTORY_OVER_THRESHOLD}+ checks => ` +
|
|
1417
|
+
`${INVENTORY_OVER_PO_DROP_LIKELIHOOD}% of POs dropped. Output inventory-check counts equal ` +
|
|
1418
|
+
"hook-time counts (H9 reads them after H6, nothing later mutates them). Value read: " +
|
|
1419
|
+
"quantity is an iid pool draw, so sweet/low mean ratio reads the knob [1.30, 1.50]; " +
|
|
1420
|
+
"unit_cost placebo [0.94, 1.07]. Volume read: PO count is activity-coupled, so the read is " +
|
|
1421
|
+
"PO-per-inventory-check within small_business only, treated cliff bin 16-23 vs adjacent " +
|
|
1422
|
+
"untreated 12-15: keep_hat = 0.4 x organic gradient [0.83, 1.0] => band [0.31, 0.44] " +
|
|
1423
|
+
"(measured 0.372), guarded by pre-cliff flatness (8-11 vs 4-7 in [0.85, 1.10]).",
|
|
1424
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1425
|
+
{
|
|
1426
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1427
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1428
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}, ${PU_CTE}
|
|
1429
|
+
SELECT CASE WHEN p.inv BETWEEN ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MIN} AND ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MAX} THEN 'sweet'
|
|
1430
|
+
WHEN p.inv <= ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MIN - 1} THEN 'low' END AS arm,
|
|
1431
|
+
count(DISTINCT p.uid)::BIGINT AS user_count, avg(e.quantity) AS qty
|
|
1432
|
+
FROM pu p JOIN ev e ON e.uid = p.uid AND e.event = 'purchase order created'
|
|
1433
|
+
WHERE p.inv <= ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MAX}
|
|
1434
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1435
|
+
},
|
|
1436
|
+
select: {
|
|
1437
|
+
sweet: { where: { arm: "sweet" } },
|
|
1438
|
+
low: { where: { arm: "low" } },
|
|
1439
|
+
},
|
|
1440
|
+
expect: { metric: "sweet.qty / low.qty", op: "between", target: [1.30, 1.50] },
|
|
1441
|
+
minCohort: 400,
|
|
1442
|
+
},
|
|
1443
|
+
{
|
|
1444
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1445
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1446
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}, ${PU_CTE}
|
|
1447
|
+
SELECT CASE WHEN p.inv BETWEEN 4 AND 7 THEN 'b04'
|
|
1448
|
+
WHEN p.inv BETWEEN 8 AND 11 THEN 'b08'
|
|
1449
|
+
WHEN p.inv BETWEEN 12 AND ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MAX} THEN 'b12'
|
|
1450
|
+
WHEN p.inv BETWEEN ${INVENTORY_OVER_THRESHOLD} AND 23 THEN 'b16' END AS bin,
|
|
1451
|
+
count(*)::BIGINT AS user_count, sum(p.po)::DOUBLE / sum(p.inv) AS ppi
|
|
1452
|
+
FROM pu p JOIN us u ON u.distinct_id::VARCHAR = p.uid
|
|
1453
|
+
WHERE u.company_tier = 'small_business' AND p.inv BETWEEN 4 AND 23
|
|
1454
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1455
|
+
},
|
|
1456
|
+
assert: (rows) => {
|
|
1457
|
+
const by = cellsOf(rows, "bin");
|
|
1458
|
+
const b04 = by.b04, b08 = by.b08, b12 = by.b12, b16 = by.b16;
|
|
1459
|
+
if (!b04 || !b08 || !b12 || !b16 ||
|
|
1460
|
+
Number(b04.user_count) < 250 || Number(b08.user_count) < 500 ||
|
|
1461
|
+
Number(b12.user_count) < 500 || Number(b16.user_count) < 800) {
|
|
1462
|
+
return { verdict: "WEAK", detail: `bins too small: ${[b04, b08, b12, b16].map((b) => b?.user_count ?? 0).join("/")}` };
|
|
1463
|
+
}
|
|
1464
|
+
const flat = Number(b08.ppi) / Number(b04.ppi);
|
|
1465
|
+
if (flat < 0.85 || flat > 1.10) {
|
|
1466
|
+
return { verdict: "NONE", detail: `pre-cliff gradient assumption broken: b08/b04=${flat.toFixed(3)} outside [0.85, 1.10]` };
|
|
1467
|
+
}
|
|
1468
|
+
const keep = Number(b16.ppi) / Number(b12.ppi);
|
|
1469
|
+
const detail = `keep_hat=${keep.toFixed(3)} (b16-23 ppi ${Number(b16.ppi).toFixed(3)} / b12-15 ppi ${Number(b12.ppi).toFixed(3)}; knob 0.4 x organic gradient [0.83, 1.0]; pre-cliff flat=${flat.toFixed(3)})`;
|
|
1470
|
+
if (keep >= 0.31 && keep <= 0.44) return { verdict: "NAILED", detail };
|
|
1471
|
+
if (keep >= 0.26 && keep <= 0.50) return { verdict: "STRONG", detail };
|
|
1472
|
+
if (keep < 0.70) return { verdict: "WEAK", detail };
|
|
1473
|
+
return { verdict: keep >= 1 ? "INVERSE" : "NONE", detail };
|
|
1474
|
+
},
|
|
1475
|
+
},
|
|
1476
|
+
{
|
|
1477
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1478
|
+
type: "duckdb",
|
|
1479
|
+
sql: `WITH ${ID_CTE}, ${PU_CTE}
|
|
1480
|
+
SELECT CASE WHEN p.inv BETWEEN ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MIN} AND ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MAX} THEN 'sweet'
|
|
1481
|
+
WHEN p.inv <= ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MIN - 1} THEN 'low' END AS arm,
|
|
1482
|
+
count(DISTINCT p.uid)::BIGINT AS user_count, avg(e.unit_cost) AS cost
|
|
1483
|
+
FROM pu p JOIN ev e ON e.uid = p.uid AND e.event = 'purchase order created'
|
|
1484
|
+
WHERE p.inv <= ${INVENTORY_SWEET_MAX}
|
|
1485
|
+
GROUP BY 1`,
|
|
1486
|
+
},
|
|
1487
|
+
select: {
|
|
1488
|
+
sweet: { where: { arm: "sweet" } },
|
|
1489
|
+
low: { where: { arm: "low" } },
|
|
1490
|
+
},
|
|
1491
|
+
expect: { metric: "sweet.cost / low.cost", op: "between", target: [0.94, 1.07] },
|
|
1492
|
+
minCohort: 400,
|
|
1493
|
+
},
|
|
1494
|
+
],
|
|
1495
|
+
},
|
|
1496
|
+
{
|
|
1497
|
+
id: "H10-onboarding-ttc",
|
|
1498
|
+
hook: "H10",
|
|
1499
|
+
archetype: "funnel-ttc-by-segment",
|
|
1500
|
+
narrative:
|
|
1501
|
+
`funnel-post scales Onboarding inter-step gaps: enterprise x${TTC_ENTERPRISE_FACTOR}, ` +
|
|
1502
|
+
`small_business/trial x${TTC_SMB_FACTOR}, mid_market untouched (v1.6 scopes the hook to ` +
|
|
1503
|
+
"Onboarding only). Cross-event SQL cannot see this (greedy single-pass pairing — the " +
|
|
1504
|
+
"documented v1.5 limitation), so both reads use the emulator's timeToConvert at " +
|
|
1505
|
+
`72h x ${TTC_SMB_FACTOR} = 93.6h — the generative window times the max stretch, so ` +
|
|
1506
|
+
"slow-arm conversions are not right-censored into a fake speedup. Only born-in-dataset " +
|
|
1507
|
+
"users (~12%) have 'account created' in-window, so converter cohorts are ~1/8 scale: " +
|
|
1508
|
+
"minCohort 120. Window censoring and converter selection compress ratios toward 1 " +
|
|
1509
|
+
"(iteration: ent/mid 0.62, smb/mid 1.18): bands [0.50, 0.80] and [1.04, 1.40].",
|
|
1510
|
+
assertions: [
|
|
1511
|
+
{
|
|
1512
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1513
|
+
type: "timeToConvert",
|
|
1514
|
+
steps: ["account created", "inventory checked", "integration connected", "report generated"],
|
|
1515
|
+
breakdownByUserProperty: "company_tier",
|
|
1516
|
+
conversionWindowMs: Math.round(72 * TTC_SMB_FACTOR * 3600 * 1000),
|
|
1517
|
+
},
|
|
1518
|
+
select: {
|
|
1519
|
+
ent: { where: { segment_value: "enterprise" } },
|
|
1520
|
+
mid: { where: { segment_value: "mid_market" } },
|
|
1521
|
+
},
|
|
1522
|
+
expect: { metric: "ent.median_ttc_ms / mid.median_ttc_ms", op: "between", target: [0.50, 0.80] },
|
|
1523
|
+
minCohort: 120,
|
|
1524
|
+
},
|
|
1525
|
+
{
|
|
1526
|
+
breakdown: {
|
|
1527
|
+
type: "timeToConvert",
|
|
1528
|
+
steps: ["account created", "inventory checked", "integration connected", "report generated"],
|
|
1529
|
+
breakdownByUserProperty: "company_tier",
|
|
1530
|
+
conversionWindowMs: Math.round(72 * TTC_SMB_FACTOR * 3600 * 1000),
|
|
1531
|
+
},
|
|
1532
|
+
select: {
|
|
1533
|
+
smb: { where: { segment_value: "small_business" } },
|
|
1534
|
+
mid: { where: { segment_value: "mid_market" } },
|
|
1535
|
+
},
|
|
1536
|
+
expect: { metric: "smb.median_ttc_ms / mid.median_ttc_ms", op: "between", target: [1.04, 1.40] },
|
|
1537
|
+
minCohort: 120,
|
|
1538
|
+
},
|
|
1539
|
+
],
|
|
1540
|
+
},
|
|
1541
|
+
];
|