my-markdown-library 0.1.0

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  1. checksums.yaml +7 -0
  2. data/F24LS_md/ Lecture 4 - Public.md +347 -0
  3. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 1 - Introduction and Overview.md +327 -0
  4. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 10 - Development_.md +631 -0
  5. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 11 - Econometrics.md +345 -0
  6. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 12 - Finance.md +692 -0
  7. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 13 - Environmental Economics.md +299 -0
  8. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 15 - Conclusion.md +272 -0
  9. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 2 - Demand.md +349 -0
  10. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 3 - Supply.md +329 -0
  11. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 5 - Production C-D.md +291 -0
  12. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 6 - Utility and Latex.md +440 -0
  13. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 7 - Inequality.md +607 -0
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  16. data/F24LS_md/Lecture 9 - Game Theory_.md +436 -0
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  18. data/F24Lec_MD/LecNB_summary.yaml +206 -0
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  56. data/F24Lec_MD/lec13/EmissionsTracker.md +170 -0
  57. data/F24Lec_MD/lec13/KuznetsHypothesis.md +219 -0
  58. data/F24Lec_MD/lec13/RoslingPlots.md +217 -0
  59. data/F24Lec_MD/lec15/vibecession.md +485 -0
  60. data/F24Textbook_MD/00-intro/index.md +292 -0
  61. data/F24Textbook_MD/01-demand/01-demand.md +152 -0
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  90. data/F24Textbook_MD/08-development/index.md +35 -0
  91. data/F24Textbook_MD/09-macro/CentralBanks.md +101 -0
  92. data/F24Textbook_MD/09-macro/Indicators.md +77 -0
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  110. data/F24Textbook_MD/intro.md +26 -0
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  112. data/F24Textbook_MD/summary.yaml +414 -0
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+ ---
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+ title: "Lecture 8 - Macro"
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+ type: slides
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+ week: 8
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+ source_path: "/Users/ericvandusen/Documents/Data88E-ForTraining/F24LS/Lecture 8 - Macro.pptx"
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## Slide 1: Lecture 8: Macroeconomic Policy
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+
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+ - Lecture 8: Macroeconomic Policy
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+ - Data 88E: Economic Models
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+
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+ ## Slide 2: Announcements
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+
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+ - Lab 9 will be released tonight and will be due 10/31
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+ - We realize the P/NP deadline is coming up
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+ - We are aiming to release lab 3 grades, project 2 grades, and an attendance report by Friday
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+ - We will be awarding 1 lab drop for this semester
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+ - This lab drop will be applied automatically to your lab with the lowest score at the end of the semester
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+
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+ ## Slide 3: Today’s class
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+
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+ - A crash course in Macroeconomic policy: history, theory and what’s going on today
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+ - Learning Objectives:
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+ - Understand the 4 main macro indicators and their relationships
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+ - How can you pull and play around with API data
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+ - Why is in inflation so high?
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+ - Improve macro literacy
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Mention the cheat sheet
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 4: Map of what we’ll cover today
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+
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+ - What are the 4 main macro indicators?
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+ - How can we graph the relationships between these indicators
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+ - Overview of the Federal Reserve System
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+ - Inflation in the news
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+
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+ ## Slide 5: What is this a graph of?
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Consumer Price Index
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+ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 6: Inflation
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+
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+ - Inflation measures how much prices change over time
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+ - Typically captured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which looks at a fixed basket of the same goods and sees how they go up or down relative to a base year.
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+ - Other indices include the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) or Fisher Price Index
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+ - Does anybody know what inflation is today?
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+ - In 1980, inflation was approximately 14.5%
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+ - In 2000, inflation hovered around 3.5%
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Economists literally go to the safeway on college avenue and get the same liter of coca cola, oreo pop tarts etc.
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 7: Inflation
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+
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+ - Inflation measures how much prices change over time
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+ - Typically captured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which looks at a fixed basket of the same goods and sees how they go up or down relative to a base year.
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+ - Other indices include the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) or Fisher Price Index
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+ - Does anybody know what inflation is today? 3.7%
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+ - In 1980, inflation was approximately 14.5%
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+ - In 2000, inflation hovered around 3.5%
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+ - Thought questions:
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+ - How have you noticed rising inflation affecting your life?
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+ - Who does inflation benefit?
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Economists literally go to the safeway on college avenue and get the same liter of coca cola, oreo pop tarts etc.
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 8: Inflation over the Past 4 Years
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 9: What is this a graph of?
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Unemployment Rate
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 10: Unemployment Rate
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+
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+ - The unemployment rate tells us the percentage of people in the labour force who are willing and able to work but can’t find a job
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+ - Unemployment hit a record high during the heart of the coronavirus pandemic
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+ - Data is collected by the Bureau of Labour Statistics
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+ - On the first Friday of every month, the BLS releases employment statistics
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+ - It has huuuuge impacts on bond markets, inflationary pressures, and GDP forecasts
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+ - Surprise effect is what it is important!
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+ - NAIRU = Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Full time students, people who are retired, people who arent looking for a job
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 11: What is this a graph of?
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Real GDP
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 12: Gross Domestic Product
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+
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+ - Captures how much a given country produces in a given year
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+ - Output = Consumption + Investment + Government expenditures + Net exports
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+ - Y = C + I + G + NX
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+ - We are most interested in analyzing Real GDP. What does “real” mean?
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+ - What is the United States GDP? China?
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+ - What are the GDP’s of developing countries like Chad?
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ US 21 trillion. Cares Act was a 2.2 trillion package, so about 10% of US GDP
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+ China 15 trillion
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+ Chad 10 billion
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 13: What is this a graph of?
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Federal Funds Rate
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 14: Federal Funds Rate
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+
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+ - Two intuitive ways to think about interest rates
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+ - - Represent the cost of borrowing
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+ - Can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of holding cash
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+ - Adjusting the target FFR is one of the main ways that central banks enact monetary policy. We’ll touch more on this later
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+ - Go down to “heat up” the economy, and go up to “cool it off”
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+ - This is what’s known as expansionary vs contractionary monetary policy
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+ - Fisher equation: real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation
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+
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+ ## Slide 15: How interest rates affects output, unemployment and inflation
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+
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+ - Federal Funds Rate (FFR)
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+ - What happens to investment if the FFR decreases? Think cost of borrowing
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+ - What happens to savings if the FFR decreases?
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+ - How do we expect output to change if the FFR decreases?
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+ - Recall our formula for GDP Y=C+I+G+NX
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+
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+ ## Slide 16: How interest rates affect output, unemployment and inflation
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+
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+ - What happens to investment if the FFR decreases? Increases!
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+ - What happens to saving if the FFR decreases? Decreases!
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+ - How do we expect output to change if the FFR decreases? Increases!
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+ - Without any external events (ceteris paribus):
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+ - Fed decreases FFR → real interest rate r decreases (Fisher equation)
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+ - → Investment increases and savings decrease (it becomes cheaper to borrow and less attractive to save)
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+ - → Output inputs and unemployment decreases (investment sparks production, creating jobs)
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+ - → Wage inflation increases (firms must raise wages to attract workers in a competitive labour market) → Inflation increases
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+ - TLDR: ↓r → ↑ Y → ↓u →↑𝜋
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+
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+ ## Slide 17: Federal Funds Rate Cartoon
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+
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+ ## Slide 18: Updated cartoon
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+
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+ ## Slide 19: Macro Indicators in the News (April 2022)
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ Matt
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 20: We see these indicators all over the news today!
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+
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+ ## Slide 21: Terms you might hear in the news
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+
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+ - Hawks vs Doves:
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+ - Hawks favor high interest rates to keep inflation under control
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+ - Doves worry that high rates can induce a recession. They want to keep rates low to encourage spending in the economy
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+ - Paul Volcker: He was the Fed Chair from 1979-1987. He is a Hawk and famous for hiking interest rates in the 80s, and also being really tall. People draw comparisons between him and Jay Powell as of late
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+ - Pivot: When the Fed shifts its monetary policy from contractionary to expansionary and vice versa
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+ - Soft Landing: A gradual decline in production and activity that avoids triggering a recession. This is the Federal Reserve’s goal!
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+ - Hard Landing: Think airplane. Occurs when there is a sudden harsh decline in growth and production. There is worry that we are headed towards one
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+
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+ ## Slide 22: SF Fed - How much will interest rates affect inflation?
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+
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+ - https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/supply-and-demand-driven-pce-inflation/
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+
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+ ## Slide 23: Macroeconomic Laws
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+
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+ - Inflation (π)
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+ - Unemployment (u)
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+ - Real interest rate (r)
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+ - Output/GDP (Y)
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+
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+ ## Slide 24: IS Curve
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+
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+ - IS curve (“investment–saving” curve), an important macroeconomics model that characterizes the relationship between real interest rates and output. The IS curve is downward sloping.
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+ - r
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+ - real interest rate
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+ - output
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+
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+ ## Slide 25: IS Curve
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+
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+ - Why downward sloping?
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+ - Will you spend more or spend less when real interest rates are high?
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+
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+ ## Slide 26: IS Curve
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+
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+ - Why downward sloping?
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+ - Will you spend more or spend less when real interest rates are high?
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+ - Suppose the daily interest rate is 100%, and you have $1,000 income. How much would you spend and save?
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+
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+ ## Slide 27: IS Curve
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+
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+ - Why downward sloping?
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+ - Will you spend more or spend less when real interest rates are high?
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+ - Suppose the daily interest rate is 10%, and you have $1,000 income. How much would you spend and save?
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+
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+ ## Slide 28: IS Curve
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+
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+ - Why downward sloping?
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+ - Will you spend more or spend less when real interest rates are high?
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+ - Suppose the daily interest rate is -10%, and you have $1,000 income. How much would you spend and save?
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+
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+ ## Slide 29: IS Curve
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+
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+ - Why downward sloping?
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+ - Will you spend more or spend less when real interest rates are high?
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+ - Spend less and save more.
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+ - Will you invest more or invest less when real interest rates are high?
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+
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+ ## Slide 30: IS Curve
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+
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+ - Why downward sloping?
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+ - Will you spend more or spend less when real interest rates are high?
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+ - Spend less and save more.
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+ - Will you invest more or invest less when real interest rates are high?
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+ - Invest less and save more.
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+
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+ ## Slide 31: IS Curve
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+
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+ - Why downward sloping?
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+ - Will you spend more or spend less when real interest rates are high?
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+ - Spend less and save more.
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+ - Will you invest more or invest less when real interest rates are high?
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+ - Invest less and save more.
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+ - Y = C + I + G + NX
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+ - GDP = Consumption + Investment
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+ - + Government Spending + Net Export
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+
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+ ## Slide 32: Derivation of IS Curve
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+
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+ - Keynesian Cross
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+ - The Keynesian cross diagram, determines the equilibrium level of real GDP by the point where the aggregate demand in the economy is equal to the aggregate output produced.
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+ - Aggregate Demand
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+ - Aggregate Output
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ See the textbook for answer!
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 33: Derivation of IS Curve
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+
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+ - Keynesian Cross
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+ - The Keynesian cross diagram, determines the equilibrium level of real GDP by the point where the aggregate demand in the economy is equal to the aggregate output produced.
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+ - Why is the slope of the aggregate output equal to 1?
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+ - Why is the slope of the aggregate demand line less than 1, and the intercept greater than 0?
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+ - Aggregate Demand
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+ - Aggregate Output
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ See the textbook for answer!
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 34: Derivation of IS Curve
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+
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+ - Keynesian Cross
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+ - The Keynesian cross diagram, determines the equilibrium level of real GDP by the point where the aggregate demand in the economy is equal to the aggregate output produced.
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+ - Why is the slope of the aggregate output equal to 1?
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+ - Why is the slope of the aggregate demand line less than 1, and the intercept greater than 0?
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+ - Aggregate Demand
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+ - Aggregate Output
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+
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+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
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+
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+ See the textbook for answer!
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+
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+ </details>
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+
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+ ## Slide 35: Macroeconomic Laws
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+
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+ - Inflation (π)
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+ - Unemployment (u)
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+ - Real interest rate (r)
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+ - Output/GDP (Y)
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+ - –
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+ - IS Curve
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+
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+ ## Slide 36: Phillips Curve
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+
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+ - Phillips Curve describes the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment: Inflation is higher when unemployment is low and lower when unemployment is high.
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+ - where is the inflation rate, is
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+ - the unemployment gap.
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+ - The original curve drawn for pre-WW1 data (1851-1913) by A.W. Phillips
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+
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+ ## Slide 37: Phillips Curve
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+
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+ - Why?
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+ - In the labor market, firms demand for labor, and workers supply labor. What will happen if demand for labor increases? Will firms pay more in order to hire new workers?
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+
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+ ## Slide 38: Phillips Curve
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+
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+ - Why?
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+ - In the labor market, firms demand for labor, and workers supply labor. What will happen if demand for labor increases? Will firms pay more in order to hire new workers?
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+
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+ ## Slide 39: Phillips Curve
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+
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+ - Why?
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+ - When the demand for labor increases, the pool of unemployed workers subsequently decreases and companies increase wages to compete and attract a smaller talent pool. The cost of wages increases and companies pass along those costs to consumers in the form of price increases. Thus, a lower unemployment rate ultimately translates to a higher inflation.
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+
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+ ## Slide 40: Phillips Curve
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+
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+ - Think about the opposite direction.
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+ - What will happen if the demand of labor decreases? Will the equilibrium wages increase or decrease? How will this affect the price of goods?
349
+
350
+ ## Slide 41: Phillips Curve
351
+
352
+ - Let’s see some data we can work with!
353
+
354
+ ## Slide 42: Phillips Curve
355
+
356
+ - Let’s see some data we can work with!
357
+
358
+ ## Slide 43: Phillips Curve
359
+
360
+ - Let’s see some data we can work with!
361
+
362
+ ## Slide 44: Phillips Curve
363
+
364
+ - Let’s see some data we can work with!
365
+
366
+ ## Slide 45: Phillips Curve
367
+
368
+ - Let’s see some data we can work with!
369
+
370
+ ## Slide 46: Phillips Curve
371
+
372
+ - How will the “Phillips Curve” look like if we use data for the recent decade?
373
+
374
+ ## Slide 47: Phillips Curve
375
+
376
+ - How will the “Phillips Curve” look like if we use data for the recent decade?
377
+
378
+ ## Slide 48: Phillips Curve
379
+
380
+ - Many call this the “flattening of the Phillips Curve”.
381
+
382
+ ## Slide 49: Expectation-Augmented Phillips Curve
383
+
384
+ - What economists initially failed to realize in constructing the Phillips curve was that people and firms take the expected level of inflation into account when deciding how much to produce and how much to consume. When workers expect prices to rise, they demand higher wages. When firms expect costs to rise, they set higher prices.
385
+ - where is the inflation rate, is the expected inflation rate, is the unemployment gap.
386
+
387
+ ## Slide 50: Expectation-Augmented Phillips Curve
388
+
389
+ - Intuitions:
390
+ - Current the inflation rate is 3.7% (CPI, Oct 2023).
391
+ - When making labor contracts, would you take into account this expected rising living cost and demand higher wages?
392
+ - When making investments, would you take into account this expected inflation and demand higher nominal returns (for example, demand higher nominal interest rate for deposits)?
393
+
394
+ ## Slide 51: Expectation-Augmented Phillips Curve
395
+
396
+ - How will this impact policy to combat inflation?
397
+ - To control inflation, we need to “anchor” people’s inflation expectation first.
398
+
399
+ ## Slide 52: Expectation-Augmented Phillips Curve
400
+
401
+ - How does this hold in reality?
402
+ - Source: Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreño, Emi Nakamura, Jón Steinsson, “The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2022
403
+ - This is an ongoing research field!
404
+
405
+ ## Slide 53: Macroeconomic Laws
406
+
407
+ - Inflation (π)
408
+ - Unemployment (u)
409
+ - Real interest rate (r)
410
+ - Output/GDP (Y)
411
+ - –
412
+ - –
413
+ - IS Curve
414
+ - Phillips Curve
415
+
416
+ ## Slide 54: Taylor Rule
417
+
418
+ - If you were the Fed chair now, what would you do if you see high inflation?
419
+ - Raise interest rates
420
+ - Lower interest rates
421
+
422
+ ## Slide 55: Taylor Rule
423
+
424
+ - If you were the Fed chair now, what would you do if you see high inflation?
425
+ - Raise interest rates
426
+ - Lower interest rates
427
+
428
+ ## Slide 56: Taylor Rule
429
+
430
+ - The Taylor rule (sometimes referred to as Taylor's rule or Taylor principle) is a model that describes the relationship between Federal Reserve operating targets and the rates of inflation and gross domestic product growth.
431
+ - Or empirically,
432
+
433
+ ## Slide 57: Taylor Rule
434
+
435
+ - The Taylor rule (sometimes referred to as Taylor's rule or Taylor principle) is a model that describes the relationship between Federal Reserve operating targets and the rates of inflation and gross domestic product growth.
436
+ - Or empirically,
437
+
438
+ ## Slide 58: Taylor Rule
439
+
440
+ - The Taylor rule (sometimes referred to as Taylor's rule or Taylor principle) is a model that describes the relationship between Federal Reserve operating targets and the rates of inflation and gross domestic product growth.
441
+ - We’ll see how Fed works more in depth later.
442
+
443
+ ## Slide 59: Taylor Rule
444
+
445
+ - Does it match actual interest rate?
446
+
447
+ ## Slide 60: Macroeconomic Laws
448
+
449
+ - Inflation (π)
450
+ - Unemployment (u)
451
+ - Real interest rate (r)
452
+ - Output/GDP (Y)
453
+ - –
454
+ - –
455
+ - IS Curve
456
+ - Phillips Curve
457
+ - Taylor Rule
458
+ - +
459
+
460
+ ## Slide 61: Okun’s Law
461
+
462
+ - Okun's Law describes the relationship between unemployment and output gap. It was proposed in 1962 by Yale professor Arthur Okun who studied the relationship between unemployment and production.
463
+
464
+ ## Slide 62: Okun’s Law
465
+
466
+ ## Slide 63: Taylor Rule and Okun’s Law
467
+
468
+ - Previously we saw the Taylor Rule can be written as:
469
+
470
+ ## Slide 64: Taylor Rule and Okun’s Law
471
+
472
+ - Previously we saw the Taylor Rule can be written as:
473
+ - Now, adding in the Okun’s Law:
474
+
475
+ ## Slide 65: Macroeconomic Laws
476
+
477
+ - Inflation (π)
478
+ - Unemployment (u)
479
+ - Real interest rate (r)
480
+ - Output/GDP (Y)
481
+ - –
482
+ - –
483
+ - IS Curve
484
+ - Phillips Curve
485
+ - Taylor Rule
486
+ - Okun’s Law
487
+ - –
488
+ - +
489
+
490
+ ## Slide 66: Revisiting the headlines today
491
+
492
+ - Phillips Curve
493
+ - Taylor Rule
494
+
495
+ ## Slide 67: Questions
496
+
497
+ - Any questions so far?
498
+
499
+ ## Slide 68: Central Banks and Monetary Policy
500
+
501
+ - Central banks
502
+ - The financial institution that oversees how much money circulates throughout a given country’s economy
503
+ - Their core tool is monetary policy via adjusting interest rates
504
+ - Central banks are (in theory) politically independent
505
+ - Government legislation typically in charge of fiscal policy
506
+ - What are some key functions that central banks carry out?
507
+
508
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
509
+
510
+ Matt
511
+
512
+ </details>
513
+
514
+ ## Slide 69: Central Banks and Monetary Policy
515
+
516
+ - What are some key functions that central banks carry out?
517
+ - Maintaining smooth changes in prices
518
+ - Achieving maximum employment
519
+ - Setting interest rates
520
+ - Stimulating economy in times of recession
521
+ - Acting as a lender of last resort
522
+
523
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
524
+
525
+ Matt
526
+
527
+ </details>
528
+
529
+ ## Slide 70: The Federal Reserve System
530
+
531
+ - Structure
532
+ - Founded in 1913
533
+ - 12 Regional Banks
534
+ - Federal Chairman: Jerome Powell
535
+ - Regional Bank Presidents
536
+ - Board of Governors (Team of 7)
537
+ - Federal Open Market Committee comprised of the Board and 5 of the the regional presidents
538
+ - FOMC meets about 8 times a year and guides monetary policy decisions (calendar)
539
+ - Jerome Powell
540
+
541
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
542
+
543
+ Matt
544
+
545
+ </details>
546
+
547
+ ## Slide 71: The Federal Reserve
548
+
549
+ - Dual mandate:
550
+ - Price stability + full employment
551
+ - Taylor Rule:
552
+ - “The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.” - FOMC press releases
553
+
554
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
555
+
556
+ Matt
557
+
558
+ </details>
559
+
560
+ ## Slide 72: Federal Open Market Committee (March 2022)
561
+
562
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
563
+
564
+ Matt
565
+
566
+ </details>
567
+
568
+ ## Slide 73: Federal Open Market Committee - Sep 2024
569
+
570
+ - Key takeaways
571
+ - Expectations for future rate cuts: With markets anticipating another 0.25% reduction in upcoming meetings, aligning with the Fed’s gradual easing strategy
572
+ - Labor Market Resilience: Despite slower job growth, the labor market remains strong, supporting the rate cut​
573
+ - Cautious Growth Outlook: Optimism about economic growth persists, but concerns about geopolitical risks remain​
574
+
575
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
576
+
577
+ Important takeaways:
578
+ Rhetoric is intentionally kept very simple and digestible
579
+ Emphasize the dual mandate
580
+ Give people and markets a heads up of what they intend to do at the next meeting
581
+ Use strong language to anchor people’s expectations
582
+
583
+ </details>
584
+
585
+ ## Slide 74: Federal Open Market Committee - Sep 2023
586
+
587
+ ## Slide 75: Federal Open Market Committee - Sep 2022
588
+
589
+ - Important takeaways:
590
+ - Rhetoric is intentionally kept very simple and digestible
591
+ - Emphasize the dual mandate
592
+ - Give people and markets a heads up of what they intend to do at the next meeting
593
+ - Use strong language to anchor people’s expectations
594
+
595
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
596
+
597
+ Matt
598
+
599
+ </details>
600
+
601
+ ## Slide 76: What we learned today
602
+
603
+ - GDP, Inflation, Unemployment and Real interest rates are the 4 main macro indicators
604
+ - IS curve illustrates the \_\_\_\_\_\_ relationship between \_\_\_\_ and \_\_\_\_\_
605
+ - Phillips curve illustrates the \_\_\_\_\_ relationship between \_\_\_\_ and \_\_\_\_
606
+ - The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is to maximize \_\_\_\_\_ and maintain \_\_\_\_\_\_\_. Adjusting the money supply such that they change interest rates is their main way of doing so
607
+
608
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
609
+
610
+ Mention the cheat sheet
611
+
612
+ </details>
613
+
614
+ ## Slide 77: What we learned today
615
+
616
+ - GDP, Inflation, Unemployment and Real interest rates are the 4 main macro indicators
617
+ - IS curve illustrates the negative relationship between interest rates and output
618
+ - Phillips curve illustrates the negative relationship between unemployment and inflation
619
+ - The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is to maximize employment and maintain stable prices. Adjusting the money supply such that they change interest rates is their main way of doing so
620
+
621
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
622
+
623
+ Mention the cheat sheet
624
+
625
+ </details>
626
+
627
+ ## Slide 78: The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. […] The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
628
+
629
+ Federal Open Market Committee, 11/5/20
630
+
631
+ - The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. […] The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
632
+ - Federal Open Market Committee, 11/5/20
633
+
634
+ ## Slide 79: What tools aside from changing the FFR does the Fed have to combat an economic downturn?
635
+
636
+ ## Slide 80: Quantitative Easing (QE)
637
+
638
+ - “In addition, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.”
639
+
640
+ ## Slide 81: What is QE?
641
+
642
+ - Goal: Increase the money supply and provide banks with liquidity, allowing them to increase lending, while decreasing risk (lower risk premia) and uncertainty in the market
643
+
644
+ <details><summary>Speaker notes</summary>
645
+
646
+ https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ES\_20190517\_AmpleReserves\_fig1.png
647
+
648
+ https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/80420000/gif/\_80420417\_quantitative\_easing\_v4\_624in.gif
649
+
650
+ </details>
651
+
652
+ ## Slide 82: Forward Guidance
653
+
654
+ - “The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.“
655
+ - Federal Open Market Committee, 11/5/20
656
+ - Lower expected future short rates → lower current long rates (long rates are average of expected future short rates) → cheaper credit → higher spending
657
+
658
+ ## Slide 83: Fiscal Policy
659
+
660
+ - Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)
661
+ - Multiplier Effect: The total change in output is greater than the initial change because of further rounds of spending
662
+ - Automatic stabilizers = Social Welfare Net
663
+ - Unemployment insurance, social security payments
664
+
665
+ ## Slide 84: Terms you might hear in the news
666
+
667
+ - Hawks vs Doves:
668
+ - Hawks favor high interest rates to keep inflation under control
669
+ - Doves worry that high rates can induce a recession. They want to keep rates low to encourage spending in the economy
670
+ - Paul Volcker: He was the Fed Chair from 1979-1987. He is a Hawk and famous for hiking interest rates in the 80s, and also being really tall. People draw comparisons between him and Jay Powell as of late
671
+ - Pivot: When the Fed shifts its monetary policy from contractionary to expansionary and vice versa
672
+ - Soft Landing: A gradual decline in production and activity that avoids triggering a recession. This is the Federal Reserve’s goal!
673
+ - Hard Landing: Think airplane. Occurs when there is a sudden harsh decline in growth and production. There is potential worry that we could be headed towards one if rate hikes go on for too long
674
+
675
+ ## Slide 85: Topics we didn’t get to cover but wish we could’ve!
676
+
677
+ - Unconventional monetary policy
678
+ - Quantitative easing
679
+ - Forward guidance
680
+ - Fiscal Policy
681
+ - The 2008 Great Recession
682
+ - Volcker Disinflation in the 1980s
683
+ - Classical vs Keynesian thought
684
+
685
+ ## Slide 86: Some great resources to stay in the loop
686
+
687
+ - Berkeley students get free subscriptions to New York Times and Wall Street Journal
688
+ - Lots of great articles and daily briefings straight to your inbox
689
+ - Here is a schedule of FOMC meetings and press releases.
690
+ - Finance journalist John Authers has a really cool newsletter that you can subscribe to for free. He writes about markets, inflation trends, the Federal Reserve and lots of other important news in the macro world.
691
+ - If you’re interested in what’s going on beyond the United States, Money Talks from The Economist is a great podcast to stay updated on macro news at the international level.
692
+
693
+ ## Slide 87: Attendance
694
+
695
+ ## Slide 88: How to use the FRED API
696
+
697
+ - The mystery graphs we showed at the beginning can be easily reproduced on the FRED website
698
+ - If we want to do more complex data analysis, we could download CSVs, but there’s also a way to set up an API so that you can retrieve the most up to date data in real time.
699
+ - On to the the Jupyter notebook!
700
+