tech-hub-skills 1.0.0

package/tech_hub_skills/roles/product-designer/skills/05-product-market-fit/README.md

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+# pd-05: Product-Market Fit Analysis
+
+> **Find Your Market**: Validate that your product solves a real problem for a viable market before scaling.
+
+---
+
+## Overview
+
+| Attribute | Value |
+|-----------|-------|
+| **Skill ID** | pd-05 |
+| **Role** | Product Designer |
+| **Complexity** | Advanced |
+| **Dependencies** | pd-01, pd-02 |
+| **Outputs** | Market Analysis, Value Proposition, MVP Definition |
+
+---
+
+## Core Frameworks
+
+### 1. Product-Market Fit Definition
+
+```yaml
+pmf_definition:
+  marc_andreessen: |
+    "Product-market fit means being in a good market with a product
+    that can satisfy that market."
+
+  indicators_of_pmf:
+    strong_signals:
+      - "Users would be very disappointed without your product (>40%)"
+      - "Organic word-of-mouth growth"
+      - "High retention rates"
+      - "Users pay without heavy discounting"
+      - "Usage increases over time"
+
+    weak_signals:
+      - "High churn rates"
+      - "Constant feature requests"
+      - "Users don't recommend"
+      - "Heavy discounting needed"
+      - "Flat or declining usage"
+
+  pmf_survey:
+    question: "How would you feel if you could no longer use [Product]?"
+    scale:
+      - "Very disappointed"
+      - "Somewhat disappointed"
+      - "Not disappointed"
+    benchmark: ">40% 'Very disappointed' = PMF achieved"
+```
+
+### 2. Market Opportunity Assessment
+
+```yaml
+market_assessment:
+  tam_sam_som:
+    tam:
+      name: "Total Addressable Market"
+      definition: "Total revenue opportunity if 100% market share"
+      calculation: "Total potential customers × Average revenue per customer"
+
+    sam:
+      name: "Serviceable Addressable Market"
+      definition: "Portion of TAM you can realistically reach"
+      factors:
+        - "Geographic limitations"
+        - "Product fit limitations"
+        - "Channel access"
+
+    som:
+      name: "Serviceable Obtainable Market"
+      definition: "Realistic market share in near term"
+      factors:
+        - "Competition"
+        - "Resources"
+        - "Go-to-market capability"
+
+  market_sizing_methods:
+    top_down:
+      approach: "Start with industry data, narrow down"
+      sources:
+        - "Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester)"
+        - "Government statistics"
+        - "Public company filings"
+
+    bottom_up:
+      approach: "Build from individual customer data"
+      calculation: |
+        Number of potential customers ×
+        Conversion rate ×
+        Average deal size ×
+        Purchase frequency
+
+  market_attractiveness:
+    factors:
+      - size: "Is the market big enough?"
+      - growth: "Is the market growing?"
+      - profitability: "Can we make money here?"
+      - competition: "How intense is competition?"
+      - barriers: "Can we enter and defend?"
+```
+
+### 3. Value Proposition Canvas
+
+```yaml
+value_proposition_canvas:
+  customer_profile:
+    jobs:
+      functional: "Tasks they're trying to complete"
+      social: "How they want to be perceived"
+      emotional: "How they want to feel"
+
+    pains:
+      obstacles: "What prevents them from getting the job done?"
+      risks: "What could go wrong?"
+      negative_outcomes: "What do they want to avoid?"
+
+    gains:
+      required: "Basic expectations"
+      expected: "Standard features"
+      desired: "Things they'd love but don't expect"
+      unexpected: "Delighters"
+
+  value_map:
+    products_services:
+      - "Core product features"
+      - "Supporting services"
+      - "Add-ons and extras"
+
+    pain_relievers:
+      - "How do we eliminate/reduce pains?"
+      - "Which pains do we address?"
+
+    gain_creators:
+      - "How do we create gains?"
+      - "Which gains do we create?"
+
+  fit_assessment:
+    questions:
+      - "Does our product address the most important jobs?"
+      - "Do we relieve the most severe pains?"
+      - "Do we create meaningful gains?"
+      - "Is our solution better than alternatives?"
+```
+
+### 4. MVP Definition
+
+```yaml
+mvp_framework:
+  definition: "Minimum Viable Product - smallest thing that tests your hypothesis"
+
+  mvp_types:
+    landing_page:
+      purpose: "Test demand and messaging"
+      build_time: "1-3 days"
+      example: "Dropbox video MVP"
+
+    wizard_of_oz:
+      purpose: "Test experience without building backend"
+      build_time: "1-2 weeks"
+      example: "Manual processes behind automated facade"
+
+    concierge:
+      purpose: "Deliver value manually to learn"
+      build_time: "None"
+      example: "Personal service before productizing"
+
+    single_feature:
+      purpose: "Test core value proposition"
+      build_time: "2-4 weeks"
+      example: "One killer feature only"
+
+    piecemeal:
+      purpose: "Combine existing tools"
+      build_time: "Days"
+      example: "Zapier + Typeform + Airtable"
+
+  mvp_canvas: |
+    ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
+    │                       MVP CANVAS                            │
+    ├──────────────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────┤
+    │ HYPOTHESIS                   │ SUCCESS METRICS              │
+    │ We believe [target users]    │ We'll know we're right if:   │
+    │ will [behavior]              │ • [Metric 1] > [Target]      │
+    │ because [reason]             │ • [Metric 2] > [Target]      │
+    ├──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┤
+    │ MUST HAVE                    │ MUST NOT HAVE                │
+    │ • [Feature 1]                │ • [Feature A]                │
+    │ • [Feature 2]                │ • [Feature B]                │
+    │ • [Feature 3]                │ • [Feature C]                │
+    ├──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┤
+    │ BUILD TIME                   │ LEARN BY                     │
+    │ [X weeks]                    │ [Date]                       │
+    └──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+### 5. Go-to-Market Strategy
+
+```yaml
+gtm_strategy:
+  positioning:
+    formula: |
+      For [target customer]
+      Who [statement of need]
+      [Product] is a [category]
+      That [key benefit]
+      Unlike [competition]
+      Our product [differentiator]
+
+    example: |
+      For busy professionals
+      Who struggle to find time for learning
+      LearnFast is a micro-learning platform
+      That delivers 5-minute lessons on the go
+      Unlike traditional courses
+      Our product uses AI to personalize content to your schedule
+
+  channel_strategy:
+    owned:
+      - "Website/app"
+      - "Email list"
+      - "Blog content"
+      - "Social media"
+
+    earned:
+      - "Word of mouth"
+      - "PR/media coverage"
+      - "Reviews"
+      - "SEO"
+
+    paid:
+      - "Search ads"
+      - "Social ads"
+      - "Sponsorships"
+      - "Influencer partnerships"
+
+  launch_phases:
+    phase_1_alpha:
+      audience: "Internal team, close friends"
+      goal: "Find major bugs, validate core value"
+      duration: "1-2 weeks"
+
+    phase_2_beta:
+      audience: "Waitlist, early adopters"
+      goal: "Gather feedback, iterate"
+      duration: "4-8 weeks"
+
+    phase_3_limited:
+      audience: "Broader invite-only"
+      goal: "Test scale, refine messaging"
+      duration: "2-4 weeks"
+
+    phase_4_public:
+      audience: "General availability"
+      goal: "Growth and optimization"
+      duration: "Ongoing"
+```
+
+### 6. Pricing Strategy
+
+```yaml
+pricing_analysis:
+  pricing_models:
+    freemium:
+      description: "Free tier with paid upgrades"
+      when_to_use: "High volume, low marginal cost"
+      example: "Slack, Dropbox"
+
+    subscription:
+      description: "Recurring payment for access"
+      when_to_use: "Ongoing value delivery"
+      example: "Netflix, SaaS products"
+
+    usage_based:
+      description: "Pay per use"
+      when_to_use: "Variable consumption"
+      example: "AWS, Twilio"
+
+    one_time:
+      description: "Single purchase"
+      when_to_use: "Standalone products"
+      example: "Software licenses"
+
+    tiered:
+      description: "Multiple packages at price points"
+      when_to_use: "Diverse customer segments"
+      example: "Most SaaS products"
+
+  van_westendorp:
+    questions:
+      - "At what price would it be too expensive?"
+      - "At what price would it be so cheap you'd question quality?"
+      - "At what price does it start to feel expensive but worth it?"
+      - "At what price is it a bargain?"
+
+    analysis: "Plot responses to find optimal price range"
+
+  competitive_pricing:
+    positions:
+      premium: "Higher than market, justify with value"
+      parity: "Match market rates"
+      penetration: "Lower to gain share"
+```
+
+---
+
+## PMF Measurement Dashboard
+
+```markdown
+## Product-Market Fit Dashboard
+
+### Leading Indicators
+
+| Metric | Current | Target | Status |
+|--------|---------|--------|--------|
+| PMF Survey Score (Very Disappointed) | X% | >40% | 🟡 |
+| Weekly Active Users (WAU) | X | +X% MoM | 🟢 |
+| Activation Rate | X% | >50% | 🔴 |
+| NPS Score | X | >50 | 🟡 |
+
+### Retention Metrics
+
+| Cohort | Week 1 | Week 4 | Week 8 | Week 12 |
+|--------|--------|--------|--------|---------|
+| Jan '25 | 100% | X% | X% | X% |
+| Feb '25 | 100% | X% | X% | - |
+| Mar '25 | 100% | X% | - | - |
+
+### Growth Metrics
+
+| Channel | Acquisition | Conversion | CAC | LTV |
+|---------|-------------|------------|-----|-----|
+| Organic | X | X% | $X | $X |
+| Paid | X | X% | $X | $X |
+| Referral | X | X% | $X | $X |
+
+### Qualitative Signals
+- User feedback themes: [List]
+- Top feature requests: [List]
+- Churn reasons: [List]
+```
+
+---
+
+## Quick Wins
+
+### 15-Minute Market Sizing
+1. Define your target customer (3 min)
+2. Estimate total potential customers (5 min)
+3. Estimate conversion and pricing (5 min)
+4. Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM (2 min)
+
+### 30-Minute Value Prop
+1. List top 3 customer jobs (5 min)
+2. List top 3 pains (5 min)
+3. List top 3 gains they want (5 min)
+4. Map your features to jobs/pains/gains (10 min)
+5. Write positioning statement (5 min)
+
+### 1-Hour PMF Assessment
+1. Create PMF survey (10 min)
+2. Send to 50+ users (5 min)
+3. Analyze retention cohorts (15 min)
+4. Review qualitative feedback (15 min)
+5. Identify top 3 improvement areas (15 min)
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+
+- **pd-01**: Define requirements based on market needs
+- **pd-02**: Conduct market research
+- **ds-05**: Analyze customer data
+- **ds-07**: Design pricing experiments
+- **fo-01**: Model revenue and costs