clodds 1.1.0

package/dist/opportunity/scoring.js

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+"use strict";
+/**
+ * Opportunity Scoring - Liquidity-adjusted opportunity scoring and ranking
+ *
+ * Features:
+ * - Liquidity-adjusted profitability
+ * - Slippage estimation
+ * - Kelly criterion integration
+ * - Execution risk assessment
+ * - Multi-factor scoring
+ */
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+exports.createOpportunityScorer = createOpportunityScorer;
+const logger_1 = require("../utils/logger");
+const execution_1 = require("../execution");
+const kelly_1 = require("../trading/kelly");
+// =============================================================================
+// CONSTANTS
+// =============================================================================
+const DEFAULT_CONFIG = {
+    minLiquidity: 100,
+    edgeWeight: 0.35,
+    liquidityWeight: 0.25,
+    confidenceWeight: 0.25,
+    executionWeight: 0.15,
+    maxSlippage: 5,
+};
+// Platform-specific slippage factors (higher = more slippage)
+const PLATFORM_SLIPPAGE_FACTORS = {
+    polymarket: 0.8, // Good liquidity
+    kalshi: 1.0, // Moderate
+    manifold: 1.5, // Less liquid
+    predictit: 1.2,
+    metaculus: 2.0, // Least liquid
+    drift: 0.9,
+    betfair: 0.6, // Best liquidity
+    smarkets: 0.7,
+};
+// Platform execution reliability (0-1)
+const PLATFORM_RELIABILITY = {
+    polymarket: 0.95,
+    kalshi: 0.95,
+    manifold: 0.85,
+    predictit: 0.80,
+    metaculus: 0.70, // Manual resolution
+    drift: 0.90,
+    betfair: 0.98,
+    smarkets: 0.95,
+};
+// =============================================================================
+// IMPLEMENTATION
+// =============================================================================
+function createOpportunityScorer(config = {}, initialBankroll = 10000) {
+    const cfg = { ...DEFAULT_CONFIG, ...config };
+    // Initialize dynamic Kelly calculator
+    const kellyCalculator = (0, kelly_1.createDynamicKellyCalculator)(initialBankroll, {
+        baseMultiplier: 0.25,
+        maxKelly: 0.25,
+        maxDrawdown: 0.15,
+        volatilityScaling: true,
+    });
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // SLIPPAGE ESTIMATION
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function estimateSlippage(liquidity, size, spreadPct) {
+        if (liquidity <= 0 || size <= 0)
+            return 0;
+        // Base slippage from size/liquidity ratio
+        const sizeRatio = size / liquidity;
+        // Square root model for market impact
+        const impactSlippage = Math.sqrt(sizeRatio) * 2;
+        // Add half the spread
+        const spreadSlippage = (spreadPct || 1) / 2;
+        // Total slippage
+        return Math.min(impactSlippage + spreadSlippage, 50);
+    }
+    function estimatePlatformSlippage(platform, liquidity, size, spreadPct) {
+        const base = estimateSlippage(liquidity, size, spreadPct);
+        const factor = PLATFORM_SLIPPAGE_FACTORS[platform] || 1.0;
+        return base * factor;
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // KELLY CRITERION
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function calculateKelly(edge, confidence, winRate) {
+        // edge is already in decimal form (e.g., 0.05 for 5%)
+        const effectiveEdge = edge * confidence;
+        // Use win rate if provided, otherwise estimate from edge
+        const p = winRate || 0.5 + effectiveEdge / 2;
+        const q = 1 - p;
+        // Assuming even money odds (b = 1)
+        // Kelly = (bp - q) / b = p - q = 2p - 1
+        const fullKelly = 2 * p - 1;
+        // Apply safety factor based on confidence
+        const safetyFactor = 0.25 * confidence; // Quarter Kelly at full confidence
+        const kelly = Math.max(0, fullKelly * safetyFactor);
+        return Math.min(kelly, 0.25); // Cap at 25%
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // SCORING
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function score(opportunity) {
+        const penalties = [];
+        // 1. Edge Score (0-40)
+        const normalizedEdge = Math.min(opportunity.edgePct / 10, 1); // 10% edge = max
+        let edgeScore = normalizedEdge * 40;
+        // 2. Liquidity Score (0-25)
+        const liquidityK = opportunity.totalLiquidity / 1000;
+        const normalizedLiquidity = Math.min(liquidityK / 50, 1); // $50k = max
+        let liquidityScore = normalizedLiquidity * 25;
+        // 3. Confidence Score (0-25)
+        let confidenceScore = opportunity.confidence * 25;
+        // 4. Execution Score (0-10)
+        let executionScore = calculateExecutionScore(opportunity);
+        // Apply penalties
+        // - Low liquidity penalty
+        if (opportunity.totalLiquidity < cfg.minLiquidity * 5) {
+            const penalty = 5 * (1 - opportunity.totalLiquidity / (cfg.minLiquidity * 5));
+            penalties.push({ reason: 'Low liquidity', amount: penalty });
+            liquidityScore -= penalty;
+        }
+        // - Cross-platform complexity penalty
+        if (opportunity.type === 'cross_platform') {
+            const platforms = new Set(opportunity.markets.map((m) => m.platform));
+            if (platforms.size > 1) {
+                const penalty = 3 * (platforms.size - 1);
+                penalties.push({ reason: 'Cross-platform execution', amount: penalty });
+                executionScore -= penalty;
+            }
+        }
+        // - High slippage penalty
+        const avgSlippage = calculateAverageSlippage(opportunity, 100);
+        if (avgSlippage > 2) {
+            const penalty = Math.min(5, (avgSlippage - 2) * 2);
+            penalties.push({ reason: 'High slippage', amount: penalty });
+            edgeScore -= penalty;
+        }
+        // - Edge vs fair value uncertainty penalty
+        if (opportunity.type === 'edge' && opportunity.confidence < 0.7) {
+            const penalty = 5 * (1 - opportunity.confidence);
+            penalties.push({ reason: 'Low fair value confidence', amount: penalty });
+            confidenceScore -= penalty;
+        }
+        // Ensure scores are non-negative
+        edgeScore = Math.max(0, edgeScore);
+        liquidityScore = Math.max(0, liquidityScore);
+        confidenceScore = Math.max(0, confidenceScore);
+        executionScore = Math.max(0, executionScore);
+        const totalScore = edgeScore + liquidityScore + confidenceScore + executionScore;
+        // Calculate adjusted edge
+        const adjustedEdge = opportunity.edgePct - avgSlippage;
+        // Calculate Kelly
+        const kellyFraction = calculateKelly(opportunity.edgePct / 100, opportunity.confidence);
+        return {
+            score: Math.round(totalScore * 10) / 10,
+            adjustedEdge: Math.round(adjustedEdge * 100) / 100,
+            estimatedSlippage: Math.round(avgSlippage * 100) / 100,
+            kellyFraction: Math.round(kellyFraction * 1000) / 1000,
+            executionScore: executionScore / 10,
+            breakdown: {
+                edgeScore: Math.round(edgeScore * 10) / 10,
+                liquidityScore: Math.round(liquidityScore * 10) / 10,
+                confidenceScore: Math.round(confidenceScore * 10) / 10,
+                executionScore: Math.round(executionScore * 10) / 10,
+                penalties,
+            },
+        };
+    }
+    function calculateExecutionScore(opportunity) {
+        let score = 10;
+        for (const market of opportunity.markets) {
+            const reliability = PLATFORM_RELIABILITY[market.platform] || 0.8;
+            score *= reliability;
+        }
+        // Penalize if selling is required (not all platforms support)
+        const hasSell = opportunity.markets.some((m) => m.action === 'sell');
+        if (hasSell) {
+            score *= 0.9;
+        }
+        return score;
+    }
+    function calculateAverageSlippage(opportunity, size) {
+        if (opportunity.markets.length === 0)
+            return 0;
+        const perMarketSize = size / opportunity.markets.length;
+        let totalSlippage = 0;
+        for (const market of opportunity.markets) {
+            const slippage = estimatePlatformSlippage(market.platform, market.liquidity, perMarketSize, market.spreadPct);
+            totalSlippage += slippage;
+        }
+        return totalSlippage / opportunity.markets.length;
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // EXECUTION PLANNING
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function estimateExecution(opportunity, size) {
+        const perMarketSize = size / opportunity.markets.length;
+        const steps = [];
+        const warnings = [];
+        let totalCost = 0;
+        let estimatedProfit = 0;
+        let maxRisk = 'low';
+        for (let i = 0; i < opportunity.markets.length; i++) {
+            const market = opportunity.markets[i];
+            const slippage = estimatePlatformSlippage(market.platform, market.liquidity, perMarketSize, market.spreadPct);
+            // Adjust price for slippage
+            const adjustedPrice = market.action === 'buy'
+                ? market.price * (1 + slippage / 100)
+                : market.price * (1 - slippage / 100);
+            steps.push({
+                order: i + 1,
+                platform: market.platform,
+                marketId: '', // Will be filled in by caller
+                action: market.action,
+                outcome: '', // Will be filled in by caller
+                price: Math.round(adjustedPrice * 10000) / 10000,
+                size: perMarketSize,
+                orderType: slippage > 1 ? 'limit' : 'market',
+            });
+            if (market.action === 'buy') {
+                totalCost += adjustedPrice * perMarketSize;
+            }
+            // Assess risk
+            if (slippage > 3) {
+                maxRisk = 'high';
+                warnings.push(`High slippage expected on ${market.platform} (${slippage.toFixed(1)}%)`);
+            }
+            else if (slippage > 1.5) {
+                if (maxRisk === 'low')
+                    maxRisk = 'medium';
+            }
+            // Check liquidity
+            if (perMarketSize > market.liquidity * 0.1) {
+                warnings.push(`Order size is >10% of ${market.platform} liquidity`);
+            }
+        }
+        // Estimate profit
+        const adjustedEdge = opportunity.edgePct - calculateAverageSlippage(opportunity, size);
+        estimatedProfit = (adjustedEdge / 100) * size;
+        // Time sensitivity
+        let timeSensitivity = 60; // Default 60 seconds
+        if (opportunity.type === 'cross_platform') {
+            timeSensitivity = 15;
+        }
+        if (maxRisk === 'high') {
+            timeSensitivity = Math.max(5, timeSensitivity / 2);
+        }
+        // Add warnings for cross-platform
+        if (opportunity.type === 'cross_platform') {
+            const platforms = new Set(opportunity.markets.map((m) => m.platform));
+            if (platforms.size > 1) {
+                warnings.push('Requires accounts on multiple platforms');
+                warnings.push('Prices may move between executions');
+            }
+        }
+        return {
+            steps,
+            totalCost: Math.round(totalCost * 100) / 100,
+            estimatedProfit: Math.round(estimatedProfit * 100) / 100,
+            timeSensitivity,
+            risk: maxRisk,
+            warnings,
+        };
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // OPTIMAL SIZING (DYNAMIC KELLY)
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function getOptimalSize(opportunity, bankroll) {
+        // Update Kelly calculator with current bankroll
+        kellyCalculator.updateBankroll(bankroll);
+        // Get dynamic Kelly recommendation
+        const kellyResult = kellyCalculator.calculate(opportunity.edgePct / 100, opportunity.confidence, {
+            category: opportunity.type, // Use opportunity type as category
+        });
+        // Dynamic Kelly-based size (already accounts for drawdown, streaks, volatility)
+        const kellySize = kellyResult.positionSize;
+        // Liquidity-based max (don't take more than 5% of liquidity)
+        const liquidityMax = opportunity.totalLiquidity * 0.05;
+        // Slippage-based max (keep slippage under 2%)
+        let slippageMax = Infinity;
+        for (let size = 10; size <= bankroll; size += 10) {
+            const slippage = calculateAverageSlippage(opportunity, size);
+            if (slippage > 2) {
+                slippageMax = size - 10;
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+        // Apply additional reduction if Kelly has warnings
+        let warningReduction = 1;
+        if (kellyResult.warnings.length > 0) {
+            warningReduction = 0.75;
+            logger_1.logger.debug({ warnings: kellyResult.warnings }, 'Kelly sizing warnings - reducing size');
+        }
+        // Take minimum of all constraints
+        const optimalSize = Math.min(kellySize * warningReduction, liquidityMax, slippageMax, bankroll * 0.1 // Never more than 10% of bankroll regardless
+        );
+        logger_1.logger.debug({
+            kellyFraction: kellyResult.kelly,
+            kellySize,
+            liquidityMax,
+            slippageMax,
+            finalSize: optimalSize,
+            kellyAdjustments: kellyResult.adjustments.length,
+        }, 'Optimal size calculated');
+        return Math.max(0, Math.round(optimalSize * 100) / 100);
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // ORDERBOOK IMBALANCE ANALYSIS
+    // ===========================================================================
+    async function getImbalance(platform, marketIdOrTokenId) {
+        return (0, execution_1.getOrderbookImbalance)(platform, marketIdOrTokenId);
+    }
+    async function scoreWithImbalance(opportunity) {
+        const baseScored = score(opportunity);
+        const imbalanceSignals = [];
+        // Fetch imbalance for each market
+        for (const market of opportunity.markets) {
+            let imbalance = market.imbalance;
+            // Fetch if not pre-provided
+            if (!imbalance) {
+                const platform = market.platform;
+                if (platform === 'polymarket' && market.tokenId) {
+                    imbalance = await (0, execution_1.getOrderbookImbalance)('polymarket', market.tokenId) || undefined;
+                }
+                else if (platform === 'kalshi' && market.marketId) {
+                    imbalance = await (0, execution_1.getOrderbookImbalance)('kalshi', market.marketId) || undefined;
+                }
+            }
+            if (imbalance) {
+                // Determine if imbalance aligns with trade direction
+                // For buying: bullish imbalance is favorable (more bids pushing price up)
+                // For selling: bearish imbalance is favorable (more asks pushing price down)
+                const aligned = (market.action === 'buy' && imbalance.signal === 'bullish') ||
+                    (market.action === 'sell' && imbalance.signal === 'bearish');
+                imbalanceSignals.push({
+                    platform: market.platform,
+                    signal: imbalance.signal,
+                    imbalanceScore: imbalance.imbalanceScore,
+                    confidence: imbalance.confidence,
+                    aligned,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        // Calculate imbalance adjustment
+        // Favorable imbalance: +5 to +15 points
+        // Unfavorable imbalance: -5 to -15 points
+        // Neutral: 0
+        let imbalanceAdjustment = 0;
+        let favorableCount = 0;
+        let unfavorableCount = 0;
+        for (const signal of imbalanceSignals) {
+            if (signal.aligned) {
+                favorableCount++;
+                // Boost score based on imbalance magnitude and confidence
+                imbalanceAdjustment += Math.abs(signal.imbalanceScore) * signal.confidence * 15;
+            }
+            else if (signal.signal !== 'neutral') {
+                unfavorableCount++;
+                // Penalize for adverse imbalance
+                imbalanceAdjustment -= Math.abs(signal.imbalanceScore) * signal.confidence * 10;
+            }
+        }
+        // Determine overall alignment
+        let overallAlignment = 'neutral';
+        if (favorableCount > unfavorableCount) {
+            overallAlignment = 'favorable';
+        }
+        else if (unfavorableCount > favorableCount) {
+            overallAlignment = 'unfavorable';
+        }
+        // Timing recommendation
+        let timingRecommendation = 'monitor';
+        if (overallAlignment === 'favorable' && imbalanceAdjustment > 5) {
+            timingRecommendation = 'execute_now';
+        }
+        else if (overallAlignment === 'unfavorable' && imbalanceAdjustment < -5) {
+            timingRecommendation = 'wait';
+        }
+        const adjustedScore = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, baseScored.score + imbalanceAdjustment));
+        return {
+            baseScore: baseScored.score,
+            imbalanceAdjustment: Math.round(imbalanceAdjustment * 100) / 100,
+            adjustedScore: Math.round(adjustedScore * 10) / 10,
+            imbalanceSignals,
+            overallAlignment,
+            timingRecommendation,
+        };
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // DYNAMIC KELLY INTEGRATION
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function calculateDynamicKelly(edge, confidence, options) {
+        return kellyCalculator.calculate(edge, confidence, options);
+    }
+    function recordTrade(trade) {
+        kellyCalculator.recordTrade({
+            ...trade,
+            timestamp: new Date(),
+        });
+    }
+    function updateBankroll(bankroll) {
+        kellyCalculator.updateBankroll(bankroll);
+    }
+    function getKellyCalculator() {
+        return kellyCalculator;
+    }
+    return {
+        score,
+        scoreWithImbalance,
+        estimateSlippage,
+        calculateKelly,
+        calculateDynamicKelly,
+        recordTrade,
+        updateBankroll,
+        estimateExecution,
+        getOptimalSize,
+        getImbalance,
+        getKellyCalculator,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=scoring.js.map

package/dist/opportunity/scoring.js.map

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package/dist/pairing/index.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+/**
+ * Pairing Service - Clawdbot-style DM access control
+ *
+ * Features:
+ * - 8-char codes, uppercase, no ambiguous chars (0, O, 1, I)
+ * - 1 hour expiry
+ * - Max 3 pending requests per channel
+ * - Persistent storage in DB
+ * - Trust levels: owner > paired > stranger
+ * - Auto-approve local connections
+ * - Tailscale/Tailnet integration
+ */
+import { Database } from '../db/index';
+/** Check if an IP/hostname is local */
+declare function isLocalConnection(remoteAddress?: string): boolean;
+/** Tailscale status info */
+interface TailscaleStatus {
+    available: boolean;
+    selfIP?: string;
+    selfHostname?: string;
+    peers: Map<string, {
+        hostname: string;
+        online: boolean;
+        userId?: string;
+    }>;
+}
+/** Get Tailscale network status */
+declare function getTailscaleStatus(): TailscaleStatus;
+/** Check if an IP is a Tailscale peer */
+declare function isTailscalePeer(remoteAddress?: string): {
+    isPeer: boolean;
+    peerInfo?: {
+        hostname: string;
+        online: boolean;
+    };
+};
+export { isLocalConnection, isTailscalePeer, getTailscaleStatus };
+/** Trust levels (higher = more trusted) */
+export type TrustLevel = 'owner' | 'paired' | 'stranger';
+export interface PairingRequest {
+    code: string;
+    channel: string;
+    userId: string;
+    username?: string;
+    createdAt: Date;
+    expiresAt: Date;
+}
+export interface PairedUser {
+    channel: string;
+    userId: string;
+    username?: string;
+    pairedAt: Date;
+    pairedBy: 'code' | 'allowlist' | 'auto' | 'owner';
+    /** Whether this user is an owner (can approve pairings) */
+    isOwner: boolean;
+}
+/** Pairing service configuration */
+export interface PairingConfig {
+    /** Auto-approve connections from localhost */
+    autoApproveLocal?: boolean;
+    /** Auto-approve connections from Tailscale peers */
+    autoApproveTailscale?: boolean;
+    /** Trust level for auto-approved local connections */
+    localTrustLevel?: TrustLevel;
+    /** Trust level for auto-approved Tailscale peers */
+    tailscaleTrustLevel?: TrustLevel;
+}
+export interface PairingService {
+    /** Generate a new pairing code for a pending user */
+    createPairingRequest(channel: string, userId: string, username?: string): Promise<string | null>;
+    /** Validate and consume a pairing code */
+    validateCode(code: string): Promise<PairingRequest | null>;
+    /** Approve a pending request (by owner) */
+    approveRequest(channel: string, code: string): Promise<boolean>;
+    /** Check if connection should be auto-approved (local or tailscale) */
+    checkAutoApprove(channel: string, userId: string, remoteAddress?: string): {
+        approved: boolean;
+        reason?: 'local' | 'tailscale';
+        peerInfo?: {
+            hostname: string;
+        };
+    };
+    /** Reject a pending request */
+    rejectRequest(channel: string, code: string): Promise<boolean>;
+    /** Check if a user is paired */
+    isPaired(channel: string, userId: string): boolean;
+    /** Get user's trust level */
+    getTrustLevel(channel: string, userId: string): TrustLevel;
+    /** Check if user is an owner */
+    isOwner(channel: string, userId: string): boolean;
+    /** Add a user to paired list (for allowlist entries) */
+    addPairedUser(channel: string, userId: string, username?: string, method?: 'code' | 'allowlist' | 'auto' | 'owner'): void;
+    /** Set a user as owner */
+    setOwner(channel: string, userId: string, username?: string): void;
+    /** Remove owner status */
+    removeOwner(channel: string, userId: string): void;
+    /** Remove a user from paired list */
+    removePairedUser(channel: string, userId: string): void;
+    /** List all pending requests for a channel */
+    listPendingRequests(channel: string): PairingRequest[];
+    /** List all paired users for a channel */
+    listPairedUsers(channel: string): PairedUser[];
+    /** List all owners for a channel */
+    listOwners(channel: string): PairedUser[];
+    /** Cleanup expired requests */
+    cleanupExpired(): void;
+}
+export declare function createPairingService(db: Database, configInput?: PairingConfig): PairingService;