clodds 1.1.0

package/dist/opportunity/matching.js

@@ -0,0 +1,551 @@
+"use strict";
+/**
+ * Market Matching - Semantic and text-based market matching across platforms
+ *
+ * Features:
+ * - Embedding-based semantic similarity
+ * - Text normalization and token matching
+ * - Manual link overrides
+ * - Caching for performance
+ * - Configurable similarity thresholds
+ */
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+exports.createMarketMatcher = createMarketMatcher;
+const logger_1 = require("../utils/logger");
+// =============================================================================
+// CONSTANTS
+// =============================================================================
+const DEFAULT_CONFIG = {
+    semanticEnabled: true,
+    similarityThreshold: 0.85,
+    minTokenOverlap: 0.6,
+    cacheTtlMs: 300000, // 5 minutes
+};
+// Common stop words to ignore
+const STOP_WORDS = new Set([
+    'a', 'an', 'the', 'will', 'be', 'is', 'are', 'was', 'were', 'been',
+    'being', 'have', 'has', 'had', 'do', 'does', 'did', 'would', 'could',
+    'should', 'may', 'might', 'must', 'shall', 'can', 'need', 'dare',
+    'to', 'of', 'in', 'for', 'on', 'with', 'at', 'by', 'from', 'as',
+    'into', 'through', 'during', 'before', 'after', 'above', 'below',
+    'between', 'under', 'again', 'further', 'then', 'once', 'here',
+    'there', 'when', 'where', 'why', 'how', 'all', 'each', 'few', 'more',
+    'most', 'other', 'some', 'such', 'no', 'nor', 'not', 'only', 'own',
+    'same', 'so', 'than', 'too', 'very', 'just', 'and', 'but', 'if', 'or',
+    'because', 'until', 'while', 'this', 'that', 'these', 'those', 'what',
+]);
+// Critical entities that MUST match for verification
+const CRITICAL_ENTITY_TYPES = ['date', 'threshold', 'person', 'team', 'year'];
+// Entity normalization patterns
+const ENTITY_PATTERNS = [
+    // Dates
+    { pattern: /\b(jan|january)\b/gi, replacement: 'january' },
+    { pattern: /\b(feb|february)\b/gi, replacement: 'february' },
+    { pattern: /\b(mar|march)\b/gi, replacement: 'march' },
+    { pattern: /\b(apr|april)\b/gi, replacement: 'april' },
+    { pattern: /\b(jun|june)\b/gi, replacement: 'june' },
+    { pattern: /\b(jul|july)\b/gi, replacement: 'july' },
+    { pattern: /\b(aug|august)\b/gi, replacement: 'august' },
+    { pattern: /\b(sep|sept|september)\b/gi, replacement: 'september' },
+    { pattern: /\b(oct|october)\b/gi, replacement: 'october' },
+    { pattern: /\b(nov|november)\b/gi, replacement: 'november' },
+    { pattern: /\b(dec|december)\b/gi, replacement: 'december' },
+    // Common entities
+    { pattern: /\b(us|u\.s\.|united states)\b/gi, replacement: 'us' },
+    { pattern: /\b(uk|u\.k\.|united kingdom|britain)\b/gi, replacement: 'uk' },
+    { pattern: /\b(fed|federal reserve|fomc)\b/gi, replacement: 'fed' },
+    { pattern: /\b(gdp|gross domestic product)\b/gi, replacement: 'gdp' },
+    { pattern: /\b(cpi|consumer price index)\b/gi, replacement: 'cpi' },
+    // Numbers
+    { pattern: /(\d+)\s*%/g, replacement: '$1percent' },
+    { pattern: /\$(\d+)/g, replacement: '$1dollars' },
+    { pattern: /(\d+)\s*(bp|bps|basis points?)/gi, replacement: '$1bp' },
+];
+// =============================================================================
+// IMPLEMENTATION
+// =============================================================================
+function createMarketMatcher(db, embeddings, config = {}) {
+    const cfg = { ...DEFAULT_CONFIG, ...config };
+    // Manual links
+    const manualLinks = new Map();
+    // Embedding cache
+    const embeddingCache = new Map();
+    // Load manual links from DB
+    loadManualLinks();
+    function loadManualLinks() {
+        try {
+            const rows = db.query('SELECT market_a, market_b FROM market_links WHERE source = ?', ['manual']);
+            for (const row of rows) {
+                addToLinkSet(row.market_a, row.market_b);
+            }
+            logger_1.logger.debug({ count: rows.length }, 'Loaded manual market links');
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            logger_1.logger.warn({ error }, 'Failed to load manual links');
+        }
+    }
+    function addToLinkSet(a, b) {
+        if (!manualLinks.has(a))
+            manualLinks.set(a, new Set());
+        if (!manualLinks.has(b))
+            manualLinks.set(b, new Set());
+        manualLinks.get(a).add(b);
+        manualLinks.get(b).add(a);
+    }
+    function removeFromLinkSet(a, b) {
+        manualLinks.get(a)?.delete(b);
+        manualLinks.get(b)?.delete(a);
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // NORMALIZATION
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function normalizeQuestion(question) {
+        let normalized = question.toLowerCase().trim();
+        // Apply entity patterns
+        for (const { pattern, replacement } of ENTITY_PATTERNS) {
+            normalized = normalized.replace(pattern, replacement);
+        }
+        // Remove punctuation except numbers
+        normalized = normalized.replace(/[^\w\s\d]/g, ' ');
+        // Normalize whitespace
+        normalized = normalized.replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim();
+        return normalized;
+    }
+    function tokenize(text) {
+        const normalized = normalizeQuestion(text);
+        return normalized
+            .split(/\s+/)
+            .filter((token) => token.length > 1 && !STOP_WORDS.has(token));
+    }
+    function generateCanonicalId(question) {
+        const tokens = tokenize(question).slice(0, 8);
+        return tokens.join('_');
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // ENTITY EXTRACTION FOR VERIFICATION
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function extractEntities(question) {
+        const text = question.toLowerCase();
+        const entities = {
+            dates: [],
+            years: [],
+            thresholds: [],
+            persons: [],
+            teams: [],
+            numbers: [],
+        };
+        // Extract years (2020-2030)
+        const yearMatches = text.match(/\b(20[2-3]\d)\b/g);
+        if (yearMatches)
+            entities.years = [...new Set(yearMatches)];
+        // Extract month-year combinations
+        const monthYearRegex = /\b(jan(?:uary)?|feb(?:ruary)?|mar(?:ch)?|apr(?:il)?|may|jun(?:e)?|jul(?:y)?|aug(?:ust)?|sep(?:t(?:ember)?)?|oct(?:ober)?|nov(?:ember)?|dec(?:ember)?)\s*(?:\.?\s*)?(20[2-3]\d)?\b/gi;
+        const dateMatches = text.matchAll(monthYearRegex);
+        for (const match of dateMatches) {
+            const month = match[1].toLowerCase().slice(0, 3);
+            const year = match[2] || '';
+            entities.dates.push(`${month}${year}`);
+        }
+        // Extract specific dates (e.g., "January 20", "Jan 1st")
+        const specificDateRegex = /\b(jan(?:uary)?|feb(?:ruary)?|mar(?:ch)?|apr(?:il)?|may|jun(?:e)?|jul(?:y)?|aug(?:ust)?|sep(?:t(?:ember)?)?|oct(?:ober)?|nov(?:ember)?|dec(?:ember)?)\s+(\d{1,2})(?:st|nd|rd|th)?\b/gi;
+        const specificDateMatches = text.matchAll(specificDateRegex);
+        for (const match of specificDateMatches) {
+            entities.dates.push(`${match[1].slice(0, 3)}${match[2]}`);
+        }
+        // Extract thresholds/percentages
+        const thresholdRegex = /(\d+(?:\.\d+)?)\s*(%|percent|bp|bps|basis\s*points?)/gi;
+        const thresholdMatches = text.matchAll(thresholdRegex);
+        for (const match of thresholdMatches) {
+            entities.thresholds.push(`${match[1]}${match[2].toLowerCase().replace(/basis\s*points?/, 'bp')}`);
+        }
+        // Extract dollar amounts
+        const dollarRegex = /\$(\d+(?:,\d{3})*(?:\.\d+)?)\s*(k|m|b|trillion|billion|million|thousand)?/gi;
+        const dollarMatches = text.matchAll(dollarRegex);
+        for (const match of dollarMatches) {
+            const num = match[1].replace(/,/g, '');
+            const suffix = match[2] ? match[2].toLowerCase()[0] : '';
+            entities.thresholds.push(`$${num}${suffix}`);
+        }
+        // Extract numbers generally
+        const numberMatches = text.match(/\b\d+(?:\.\d+)?\b/g);
+        if (numberMatches) {
+            entities.numbers = [...new Set(numberMatches)].slice(0, 10);
+        }
+        // Extract common politician/celebrity names (simplified list)
+        const personPatterns = [
+            /\b(trump|biden|harris|obama|desantis|pence|vance|newsom|haley|ramaswamy)\b/gi,
+            /\b(musk|bezos|gates|zuckerberg|altman|powell|yellen)\b/gi,
+            /\b(putin|xi|zelensky|modi|macron|sunak|starmer)\b/gi,
+        ];
+        for (const pattern of personPatterns) {
+            const matches = text.match(pattern);
+            if (matches) {
+                entities.persons.push(...matches.map((m) => m.toLowerCase()));
+            }
+        }
+        entities.persons = [...new Set(entities.persons)];
+        // Extract team names (sports)
+        const teamPatterns = [
+            /\b(chiefs|eagles|49ers|ravens|lions|cowboys|packers|bills|dolphins|jets)\b/gi,
+            /\b(lakers|celtics|warriors|bucks|nuggets|suns|heat|76ers|knicks|nets)\b/gi,
+            /\b(yankees|dodgers|braves|astros|phillies|rangers|diamondbacks|cubs)\b/gi,
+        ];
+        for (const pattern of teamPatterns) {
+            const matches = text.match(pattern);
+            if (matches) {
+                entities.teams.push(...matches.map((m) => m.toLowerCase()));
+            }
+        }
+        entities.teams = [...new Set(entities.teams)];
+        return entities;
+    }
+    function compareEntitySets(a, b) {
+        if (a.length === 0 && b.length === 0) {
+            return { match: true, missing: [] };
+        }
+        const setA = new Set(a);
+        const setB = new Set(b);
+        // Check if all items in A are in B and vice versa
+        const missingFromB = a.filter((x) => !setB.has(x));
+        const missingFromA = b.filter((x) => !setA.has(x));
+        const allMissing = [...missingFromB, ...missingFromA];
+        return {
+            match: allMissing.length === 0,
+            missing: allMissing,
+        };
+    }
+    async function verifyMatch(marketA, marketB) {
+        const questionA = marketA.market.question;
+        const questionB = marketB.market.question;
+        const entitiesA = extractEntities(questionA);
+        const entitiesB = extractEntities(questionB);
+        const warnings = [];
+        let confidence = 1.0;
+        let needsReview = false;
+        // Check year mismatch (critical)
+        const yearComparison = compareEntitySets(entitiesA.years, entitiesB.years);
+        if (!yearComparison.match && (entitiesA.years.length > 0 || entitiesB.years.length > 0)) {
+            warnings.push(`Year mismatch: ${entitiesA.years.join(',')} vs ${entitiesB.years.join(',')}`);
+            confidence -= 0.5; // Major penalty
+            needsReview = true;
+        }
+        // Check date mismatch (critical)
+        const dateComparison = compareEntitySets(entitiesA.dates, entitiesB.dates);
+        if (!dateComparison.match && (entitiesA.dates.length > 0 || entitiesB.dates.length > 0)) {
+            warnings.push(`Date mismatch: ${entitiesA.dates.join(',')} vs ${entitiesB.dates.join(',')}`);
+            confidence -= 0.4;
+            needsReview = true;
+        }
+        // Check threshold mismatch (critical for price/percentage markets)
+        const thresholdComparison = compareEntitySets(entitiesA.thresholds, entitiesB.thresholds);
+        if (!thresholdComparison.match && (entitiesA.thresholds.length > 0 || entitiesB.thresholds.length > 0)) {
+            warnings.push(`Threshold mismatch: ${entitiesA.thresholds.join(',')} vs ${entitiesB.thresholds.join(',')}`);
+            confidence -= 0.4;
+            needsReview = true;
+        }
+        // Check person mismatch
+        const personComparison = compareEntitySets(entitiesA.persons, entitiesB.persons);
+        if (!personComparison.match && (entitiesA.persons.length > 0 || entitiesB.persons.length > 0)) {
+            warnings.push(`Person mismatch: ${entitiesA.persons.join(',')} vs ${entitiesB.persons.join(',')}`);
+            confidence -= 0.3;
+            needsReview = true;
+        }
+        // Check team mismatch
+        const teamComparison = compareEntitySets(entitiesA.teams, entitiesB.teams);
+        if (!teamComparison.match && (entitiesA.teams.length > 0 || entitiesB.teams.length > 0)) {
+            warnings.push(`Team mismatch: ${entitiesA.teams.join(',')} vs ${entitiesB.teams.join(',')}`);
+            confidence -= 0.3;
+        }
+        // Check for significant number differences
+        const numericDiff = checkNumericDifference(entitiesA.numbers, entitiesB.numbers);
+        if (numericDiff) {
+            warnings.push(numericDiff);
+            confidence -= 0.2;
+        }
+        // Clamp confidence
+        confidence = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, confidence));
+        // Verified if confidence is high enough
+        const verified = confidence >= 0.7 && warnings.length < 2;
+        return {
+            verified,
+            confidence,
+            warnings,
+            entities: { a: entitiesA, b: entitiesB },
+            needsReview,
+        };
+    }
+    function checkNumericDifference(numsA, numsB) {
+        // Look for significant number differences that could indicate different questions
+        const setA = new Set(numsA.map(Number).filter((n) => !isNaN(n)));
+        const setB = new Set(numsB.map(Number).filter((n) => !isNaN(n)));
+        // Only flag if there are specific numbers that differ significantly
+        const uniqueToA = [...setA].filter((n) => {
+            // Check if there's a close number in B
+            return ![...setB].some((b) => Math.abs(n - b) / Math.max(n, b) < 0.1);
+        });
+        const uniqueToB = [...setB].filter((n) => {
+            return ![...setA].some((a) => Math.abs(n - a) / Math.max(n, a) < 0.1);
+        });
+        if (uniqueToA.length > 0 && uniqueToB.length > 0) {
+            return `Different key numbers: ${uniqueToA.join(',')} vs ${uniqueToB.join(',')}`;
+        }
+        return null;
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // SIMILARITY CALCULATIONS
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function calculateJaccardSimilarity(tokensA, tokensB) {
+        const setA = new Set(tokensA);
+        const setB = new Set(tokensB);
+        const intersection = new Set([...setA].filter((x) => setB.has(x)));
+        const union = new Set([...setA, ...setB]);
+        if (union.size === 0)
+            return 0;
+        return intersection.size / union.size;
+    }
+    function calculateCosineSimilarity(a, b) {
+        if (a.length !== b.length)
+            return 0;
+        let dotProduct = 0;
+        let normA = 0;
+        let normB = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {
+            dotProduct += a[i] * b[i];
+            normA += a[i] * a[i];
+            normB += b[i] * b[i];
+        }
+        normA = Math.sqrt(normA);
+        normB = Math.sqrt(normB);
+        if (normA === 0 || normB === 0)
+            return 0;
+        return dotProduct / (normA * normB);
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // EMBEDDING
+    // ===========================================================================
+    async function getEmbedding(question) {
+        if (!embeddings || !cfg.semanticEnabled)
+            return null;
+        const normalized = normalizeQuestion(question);
+        const cached = embeddingCache.get(normalized);
+        if (cached && Date.now() - cached.timestamp < cfg.cacheTtlMs) {
+            return cached.embedding;
+        }
+        try {
+            const result = await embeddings.embed(normalized);
+            if (result && result.length > 0) {
+                embeddingCache.set(normalized, { embedding: result, timestamp: Date.now() });
+                return result;
+            }
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            logger_1.logger.warn({ error }, 'Failed to get embedding');
+        }
+        return null;
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // MATCHING
+    // ===========================================================================
+    async function areMatching(marketA, marketB) {
+        const keyA = `${marketA.platform}:${marketA.market.id}`;
+        const keyB = `${marketB.platform}:${marketB.market.id}`;
+        // 1. Check manual links first (no verification needed - human approved)
+        if (manualLinks.get(keyA)?.has(keyB)) {
+            return { matches: true, similarity: 1.0, method: 'manual' };
+        }
+        // 2. Check slug match (exact ID match across platforms - trusted)
+        if (marketA.market.slug && marketB.market.slug) {
+            const slugA = marketA.market.slug.toLowerCase();
+            const slugB = marketB.market.slug.toLowerCase();
+            if (slugA === slugB) {
+                return { matches: true, similarity: 1.0, method: 'slug' };
+            }
+        }
+        const questionA = marketA.market.question;
+        const questionB = marketB.market.question;
+        // 3. Try semantic matching WITH VERIFICATION
+        if (cfg.semanticEnabled && embeddings) {
+            const [embA, embB] = await Promise.all([
+                getEmbedding(questionA),
+                getEmbedding(questionB),
+            ]);
+            if (embA && embB) {
+                const similarity = calculateCosineSimilarity(embA, embB);
+                if (similarity >= cfg.similarityThreshold) {
+                    // CRITICAL: Verify semantic matches to catch false positives
+                    const verification = await verifyMatch(marketA, marketB);
+                    if (!verification.verified) {
+                        logger_1.logger.warn({
+                            marketA: { platform: marketA.platform, id: marketA.market.id, question: questionA },
+                            marketB: { platform: marketB.platform, id: marketB.market.id, question: questionB },
+                            similarity,
+                            warnings: verification.warnings,
+                            confidence: verification.confidence,
+                        }, 'Semantic match REJECTED - failed verification');
+                        // Don't return match - fall through to text matching
+                    }
+                    else {
+                        logger_1.logger.debug({
+                            similarity,
+                            confidence: verification.confidence,
+                            method: 'semantic',
+                        }, 'Semantic match verified');
+                        return {
+                            matches: true,
+                            similarity: similarity * verification.confidence,
+                            method: 'semantic',
+                            verification,
+                        };
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        // 4. Fall back to text matching with verification
+        const tokensA = tokenize(questionA);
+        const tokensB = tokenize(questionB);
+        const similarity = calculateJaccardSimilarity(tokensA, tokensB);
+        if (similarity >= cfg.minTokenOverlap) {
+            // Also verify text matches
+            const verification = await verifyMatch(marketA, marketB);
+            if (!verification.verified && verification.confidence < 0.5) {
+                logger_1.logger.warn({
+                    marketA: { platform: marketA.platform, id: marketA.market.id },
+                    marketB: { platform: marketB.platform, id: marketB.market.id },
+                    similarity,
+                    warnings: verification.warnings,
+                }, 'Text match REJECTED - low confidence');
+                return { matches: false, similarity, method: 'none', verification };
+            }
+            return {
+                matches: true,
+                similarity: similarity * verification.confidence,
+                method: 'text',
+                verification,
+            };
+        }
+        return { matches: false, similarity, method: 'none' };
+    }
+    async function findMatches(markets) {
+        const matchGroups = new Map();
+        // Group by normalized question first (fast)
+        const byNormalized = new Map();
+        for (const item of markets) {
+            const normalized = normalizeQuestion(item.market.question);
+            const key = generateCanonicalId(item.market.question);
+            if (!byNormalized.has(key)) {
+                byNormalized.set(key, []);
+            }
+            byNormalized.get(key).push(item);
+        }
+        // Process groups that have multiple platforms
+        for (const [canonicalId, group] of byNormalized) {
+            const platforms = new Set(group.map((g) => g.platform));
+            if (platforms.size < 2) {
+                // Still create match for single platform (for internal arb)
+                if (group.length > 0) {
+                    matchGroups.set(canonicalId, {
+                        canonicalId,
+                        markets: group,
+                        similarity: 1.0,
+                        method: 'text',
+                        normalizedQuestion: normalizeQuestion(group[0].market.question),
+                    });
+                }
+                continue;
+            }
+            // Multiple platforms - verify matches
+            const verified = [];
+            let bestSimilarity = 0;
+            let method = 'text';
+            let matchVerification;
+            let anyNeedsReview = false;
+            for (let i = 0; i < group.length; i++) {
+                if (i === 0) {
+                    verified.push(group[i]);
+                    continue;
+                }
+                const result = await areMatching(group[0], group[i]);
+                if (result.matches) {
+                    verified.push(group[i]);
+                    if (result.similarity > bestSimilarity) {
+                        bestSimilarity = result.similarity;
+                        method = result.method;
+                        matchVerification = result.verification;
+                    }
+                    if (result.verification?.needsReview) {
+                        anyNeedsReview = true;
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+            if (verified.length >= 1) {
+                matchGroups.set(canonicalId, {
+                    canonicalId,
+                    markets: verified,
+                    similarity: bestSimilarity || 1.0,
+                    method,
+                    normalizedQuestion: normalizeQuestion(group[0].market.question),
+                    verification: matchVerification,
+                    needsReview: anyNeedsReview,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        // Check manual links for additional matches
+        for (const [keyA, linkedKeys] of manualLinks) {
+            for (const keyB of linkedKeys) {
+                const [platformA, marketIdA] = keyA.split(':');
+                const [platformB, marketIdB] = keyB.split(':');
+                const marketA = markets.find((m) => m.platform === platformA && m.market.id === marketIdA);
+                const marketB = markets.find((m) => m.platform === platformB && m.market.id === marketIdB);
+                if (marketA && marketB) {
+                    const canonicalId = `manual_${keyA}_${keyB}`;
+                    if (!matchGroups.has(canonicalId)) {
+                        matchGroups.set(canonicalId, {
+                            canonicalId,
+                            markets: [marketA, marketB],
+                            similarity: 1.0,
+                            method: 'manual',
+                            normalizedQuestion: normalizeQuestion(marketA.market.question),
+                        });
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return Array.from(matchGroups.values());
+    }
+    // ===========================================================================
+    // MANUAL LINKS
+    // ===========================================================================
+    function addManualLink(marketA, marketB) {
+        addToLinkSet(marketA, marketB);
+        // Persist to DB
+        try {
+            db.run(`INSERT OR REPLACE INTO market_links (id, market_a, market_b, source)
+         VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?)`, [`${marketA}_${marketB}`, marketA, marketB, 'manual']);
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            logger_1.logger.warn({ error }, 'Failed to persist manual link');
+        }
+    }
+    function removeManualLink(marketA, marketB) {
+        removeFromLinkSet(marketA, marketB);
+        try {
+            db.run('DELETE FROM market_links WHERE (market_a = ? AND market_b = ?) OR (market_a = ? AND market_b = ?)', [marketA, marketB, marketB, marketA]);
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            logger_1.logger.warn({ error }, 'Failed to remove manual link');
+        }
+    }
+    function clearCache() {
+        embeddingCache.clear();
+    }
+    return {
+        findMatches,
+        areMatching,
+        addManualLink,
+        removeManualLink,
+        getEmbedding,
+        clearCache,
+        verifyMatch,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=matching.js.map

package/dist/opportunity/matching.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/opportunity/outcomes.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+/**
+ * Outcome Normalization - Standardize outcomes across platforms
+ *
+ * Features:
+ * - YES/NO detection and mapping
+ * - Inverse market handling
+ * - Multi-outcome normalization
+ * - Custom outcome aliases
+ */
+import type { Outcome } from '../types';
+export type NormalizedOutcome = 'YES' | 'NO' | 'OTHER';
+export interface OutcomeMapping {
+    /** Original outcome name */
+    original: string;
+    /** Normalized outcome */
+    normalized: NormalizedOutcome;
+    /** Is this an inverse (NO means YES semantically) */
+    isInverse: boolean;
+    /** Confidence in mapping (0-1) */
+    confidence: number;
+}
+export interface OutcomeNormalizer {
+    /** Normalize an outcome name to YES/NO/OTHER */
+    normalize(outcomeName: string): OutcomeMapping;
+    /** Find YES outcome from list */
+    findYes(outcomes: Outcome[]): Outcome | undefined;
+    /** Find NO outcome from list */
+    findNo(outcomes: Outcome[]): Outcome | undefined;
+    /** Check if two outcomes are equivalent */
+    areEquivalent(outcomeA: string, outcomeB: string): boolean;
+    /** Check if two outcomes are inverse */
+    areInverse(outcomeA: string, outcomeB: string): boolean;
+    /** Add custom alias */
+    addAlias(alias: string, normalized: NormalizedOutcome): void;
+    /** Get all aliases for a normalized outcome */
+    getAliases(normalized: NormalizedOutcome): string[];
+}
+export declare function createOutcomeNormalizer(): OutcomeNormalizer;
+/**
+ * Get the complementary price for a binary outcome
+ * If YES = 0.65, then NO = 0.35
+ */
+export declare function getComplementaryPrice(price: number): number;
+/**
+ * Calculate the implied probability from YES and NO prices
+ * Accounts for the "vig" (overround)
+ */
+export declare function getImpliedProbability(yesPrice: number, noPrice: number): {
+    yes: number;
+    no: number;
+    overround: number;
+};
+/**
+ * Check if prices indicate arbitrage opportunity
+ */
+export declare function hasArbitrageOpportunity(yesPrice: number, noPrice: number): {
+    hasArbitrage: boolean;
+    edge: number;
+};
+/**
+ * Find the best outcome to buy given two markets
+ * Returns which market to buy YES on, which to buy NO on
+ */
+export declare function findBestCrossArbitrage(marketA: {
+    yesPrice: number;
+    noPrice: number;
+}, marketB: {
+    yesPrice: number;
+    noPrice: number;
+}): {
+    strategy: 'buy_yes_a_no_b' | 'buy_no_a_yes_b' | 'none';
+    edge: number;
+    cost: number;
+};