clodds 1.1.0

package/dist/acp/predictions.d.ts

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+/**
+ * ACP Predictions - Agent forecast tracking with Brier scores
+ *
+ * Features:
+ * - Submit predictions on markets (probability + rationale)
+ * - Track outcomes when markets resolve
+ * - Calculate Brier scores for accuracy ranking
+ * - Public prediction feed
+ * - Per-agent accuracy stats
+ */
+import { Database } from '../db';
+export interface Prediction {
+    id: string;
+    agentId: string;
+    marketSlug: string;
+    marketTitle: string;
+    marketCategory?: string;
+    probability: number;
+    rationale: string;
+    outcome?: number;
+    brierContribution?: number;
+    resolvedAt?: number;
+    createdAt: number;
+    updatedAt: number;
+}
+export interface PredictionStats {
+    agentId: string;
+    totalPredictions: number;
+    resolvedPredictions: number;
+    correctPredictions: number;
+    brierScore?: number;
+    brierSum: number;
+    accuracy?: number;
+    bestCategory?: string;
+    worstCategory?: string;
+    streakCurrent: number;
+    streakBest: number;
+    updatedAt: number;
+}
+export interface PredictionFeedEntry {
+    id: string;
+    agentId: string;
+    agentHandle?: string;
+    marketSlug: string;
+    marketTitle: string;
+    marketCategory?: string;
+    probability: number;
+    rationale: string;
+    createdAt: number;
+}
+export type MarketCategory = 'politics' | 'pop-culture' | 'economy' | 'crypto-tech' | 'sports' | 'other';
+export declare function initPredictions(database: Database): void;
+export interface PredictionService {
+    submit(agentId: string, market: {
+        slug: string;
+        title: string;
+        category?: MarketCategory;
+    }, probability: number, rationale: string): Promise<Prediction>;
+    get(predictionId: string): Promise<Prediction | null>;
+    getByAgent(agentId: string, limit?: number): Promise<Prediction[]>;
+    getByMarket(marketSlug: string): Promise<Prediction[]>;
+    getAgentPredictionForMarket(agentId: string, marketSlug: string): Promise<Prediction | null>;
+    getFeed(limit?: number, category?: MarketCategory): Promise<PredictionFeedEntry[]>;
+    resolve(marketSlug: string, outcome: 0 | 1): Promise<number>;
+    resolveOne(predictionId: string, outcome: 0 | 1): Promise<Prediction>;
+    getStats(agentId: string): Promise<PredictionStats | null>;
+    recalculateStats(agentId: string): Promise<PredictionStats>;
+    getLeaderboard(limit?: number): Promise<Array<PredictionStats & {
+        handle?: string;
+    }>>;
+}
+export declare function createPredictionService(): PredictionService;
+export declare function getPredictionService(): PredictionService;
+/**
+ * Calculate Brier score for a single prediction
+ * BS = (probability - outcome)²
+ *
+ * @param probability - Predicted probability (0 to 1)
+ * @param outcome - Actual outcome (0 or 1)
+ * @returns Brier score contribution (0 = perfect, 1 = worst)
+ */
+export declare function calculateBrierContribution(probability: number, outcome: 0 | 1): number;
+/**
+ * Interpret a Brier score
+ *
+ * @param score - Average Brier score
+ * @returns Human-readable interpretation
+ */
+export declare function interpretBrierScore(score: number): string;

package/dist/acp/predictions.js

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+"use strict";
+/**
+ * ACP Predictions - Agent forecast tracking with Brier scores
+ *
+ * Features:
+ * - Submit predictions on markets (probability + rationale)
+ * - Track outcomes when markets resolve
+ * - Calculate Brier scores for accuracy ranking
+ * - Public prediction feed
+ * - Per-agent accuracy stats
+ */
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+exports.initPredictions = initPredictions;
+exports.createPredictionService = createPredictionService;
+exports.getPredictionService = getPredictionService;
+exports.calculateBrierContribution = calculateBrierContribution;
+exports.interpretBrierScore = interpretBrierScore;
+const crypto_1 = require("crypto");
+const logger_1 = require("../utils/logger");
+// =============================================================================
+// DATABASE SETUP
+// =============================================================================
+let db = null;
+let initialized = false;
+function initPredictions(database) {
+    db = database;
+    ensureTablesExist();
+    initialized = true;
+    logger_1.logger.info('ACP Predictions initialized');
+}
+function getDb() {
+    if (!db) {
+        throw new Error('Predictions not initialized. Call initPredictions first.');
+    }
+    return db;
+}
+function ensureTablesExist() {
+    const database = getDb();
+    // Main predictions table
+    database.run(`
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS acp_predictions (
+      id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+      agent_id TEXT NOT NULL,
+      market_slug TEXT NOT NULL,
+      market_title TEXT NOT NULL,
+      market_category TEXT,
+      probability REAL NOT NULL CHECK(probability >= 0 AND probability <= 1),
+      rationale TEXT NOT NULL,
+      outcome INTEGER,
+      brier_contribution REAL,
+      resolved_at INTEGER,
+      created_at INTEGER NOT NULL,
+      updated_at INTEGER NOT NULL
+    )
+  `);
+    // Indexes for common queries
+    database.run('CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_pred_agent ON acp_predictions(agent_id)');
+    database.run('CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_pred_market ON acp_predictions(market_slug)');
+    database.run('CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_pred_created ON acp_predictions(created_at DESC)');
+    database.run('CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_pred_unresolved ON acp_predictions(outcome) WHERE outcome IS NULL');
+    // Stats cache per agent
+    database.run(`
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS acp_prediction_stats (
+      agent_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+      total_predictions INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      resolved_predictions INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      correct_predictions INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      brier_score REAL,
+      brier_sum REAL NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      accuracy REAL,
+      best_category TEXT,
+      worst_category TEXT,
+      streak_current INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      streak_best INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      updated_at INTEGER NOT NULL
+    )
+  `);
+    logger_1.logger.debug('Predictions tables ensured');
+}
+function createPredictionService() {
+    return {
+        async submit(agentId, market, probability, rationale) {
+            if (probability < 0 || probability > 1) {
+                throw new Error('Probability must be between 0 and 1');
+            }
+            if (!rationale || rationale.length < 10) {
+                throw new Error('Rationale must be at least 10 characters');
+            }
+            if (rationale.length > 800) {
+                throw new Error('Rationale must be at most 800 characters');
+            }
+            const database = getDb();
+            const now = Date.now();
+            // Check if agent already has a prediction for this market
+            const existing = await this.getAgentPredictionForMarket(agentId, market.slug);
+            if (existing) {
+                // Update existing prediction
+                if (existing.outcome !== undefined && existing.outcome !== null) {
+                    throw new Error('Cannot update prediction for resolved market');
+                }
+                database.run(`UPDATE acp_predictions
+           SET probability = ?, rationale = ?, updated_at = ?
+           WHERE id = ?`, [probability, rationale, now, existing.id]);
+                logger_1.logger.info({ agentId, market: market.slug, probability }, 'Prediction updated');
+                return {
+                    ...existing,
+                    probability,
+                    rationale,
+                    updatedAt: now,
+                };
+            }
+            // Create new prediction
+            const id = `pred_${(0, crypto_1.randomBytes)(12).toString('hex')}`;
+            database.run(`INSERT INTO acp_predictions
+         (id, agent_id, market_slug, market_title, market_category, probability, rationale, created_at, updated_at)
+         VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`, [id, agentId, market.slug, market.title, market.category || null, probability, rationale, now, now]);
+            // Update stats
+            await this.recalculateStats(agentId);
+            logger_1.logger.info({ agentId, market: market.slug, probability }, 'Prediction submitted');
+            return {
+                id,
+                agentId,
+                marketSlug: market.slug,
+                marketTitle: market.title,
+                marketCategory: market.category,
+                probability,
+                rationale,
+                createdAt: now,
+                updatedAt: now,
+            };
+        },
+        async get(predictionId) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            const rows = database.query('SELECT * FROM acp_predictions WHERE id = ?', [predictionId]);
+            return rows.length > 0 ? rowToPrediction(rows[0]) : null;
+        },
+        async getByAgent(agentId, limit = 50) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            const rows = database.query('SELECT * FROM acp_predictions WHERE agent_id = ? ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT ?', [agentId, limit]);
+            return rows.map(rowToPrediction);
+        },
+        async getByMarket(marketSlug) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            const rows = database.query('SELECT * FROM acp_predictions WHERE market_slug = ? ORDER BY created_at DESC', [marketSlug]);
+            return rows.map(rowToPrediction);
+        },
+        async getAgentPredictionForMarket(agentId, marketSlug) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            const rows = database.query('SELECT * FROM acp_predictions WHERE agent_id = ? AND market_slug = ?', [agentId, marketSlug]);
+            return rows.length > 0 ? rowToPrediction(rows[0]) : null;
+        },
+        async getFeed(limit = 50, category) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            let sql = `
+        SELECT p.*, h.handle as agent_handle
+        FROM acp_predictions p
+        LEFT JOIN acp_handles h ON p.agent_id = h.agent_id
+      `;
+            const params = [];
+            if (category) {
+                sql += ' WHERE p.market_category = ?';
+                params.push(category);
+            }
+            sql += ' ORDER BY p.created_at DESC LIMIT ?';
+            params.push(limit);
+            const rows = database.query(sql, params);
+            return rows.map(row => ({
+                id: row.id,
+                agentId: row.agent_id,
+                agentHandle: row.agent_handle || undefined,
+                marketSlug: row.market_slug,
+                marketTitle: row.market_title,
+                marketCategory: row.market_category || undefined,
+                probability: row.probability,
+                rationale: row.rationale,
+                createdAt: row.created_at,
+            }));
+        },
+        async resolve(marketSlug, outcome) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            const now = Date.now();
+            // Get all unresolved predictions for this market
+            const predictions = database.query('SELECT * FROM acp_predictions WHERE market_slug = ? AND outcome IS NULL', [marketSlug]);
+            if (predictions.length === 0) {
+                return 0;
+            }
+            // Update each prediction with outcome and Brier contribution
+            for (const row of predictions) {
+                const brierContribution = Math.pow(row.probability - outcome, 2);
+                database.run(`UPDATE acp_predictions
+           SET outcome = ?, brier_contribution = ?, resolved_at = ?, updated_at = ?
+           WHERE id = ?`, [outcome, brierContribution, now, now, row.id]);
+                // Recalculate agent stats
+                await this.recalculateStats(row.agent_id);
+            }
+            logger_1.logger.info({ marketSlug, outcome, count: predictions.length }, 'Market predictions resolved');
+            return predictions.length;
+        },
+        async resolveOne(predictionId, outcome) {
+            const prediction = await this.get(predictionId);
+            if (!prediction) {
+                throw new Error('Prediction not found');
+            }
+            if (prediction.outcome !== undefined && prediction.outcome !== null) {
+                throw new Error('Prediction already resolved');
+            }
+            const database = getDb();
+            const now = Date.now();
+            const brierContribution = Math.pow(prediction.probability - outcome, 2);
+            database.run(`UPDATE acp_predictions
+         SET outcome = ?, brier_contribution = ?, resolved_at = ?, updated_at = ?
+         WHERE id = ?`, [outcome, brierContribution, now, now, predictionId]);
+            await this.recalculateStats(prediction.agentId);
+            return {
+                ...prediction,
+                outcome,
+                brierContribution,
+                resolvedAt: now,
+                updatedAt: now,
+            };
+        },
+        async getStats(agentId) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            const rows = database.query('SELECT * FROM acp_prediction_stats WHERE agent_id = ?', [agentId]);
+            return rows.length > 0 ? rowToStats(rows[0]) : null;
+        },
+        async recalculateStats(agentId) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            const now = Date.now();
+            // Get all predictions for agent
+            const predictions = database.query('SELECT * FROM acp_predictions WHERE agent_id = ? ORDER BY created_at ASC', [agentId]);
+            const totalPredictions = predictions.length;
+            const resolved = predictions.filter(p => p.outcome !== null);
+            const resolvedPredictions = resolved.length;
+            // Calculate Brier score
+            let brierSum = 0;
+            let correctPredictions = 0;
+            let streakCurrent = 0;
+            let streakBest = 0;
+            let currentStreak = 0;
+            // Category tracking
+            const categoryStats = {};
+            for (const p of resolved) {
+                const brier = p.brier_contribution ?? Math.pow(p.probability - p.outcome, 2);
+                brierSum += brier;
+                // Correct if prediction aligned with outcome (>50% when YES, <50% when NO)
+                const predictedYes = p.probability >= 0.5;
+                const actualYes = p.outcome === 1;
+                const isCorrect = predictedYes === actualYes;
+                if (isCorrect) {
+                    correctPredictions++;
+                    currentStreak++;
+                    if (currentStreak > streakBest) {
+                        streakBest = currentStreak;
+                    }
+                }
+                else {
+                    currentStreak = 0;
+                }
+                // Track by category
+                const cat = p.market_category || 'other';
+                if (!categoryStats[cat]) {
+                    categoryStats[cat] = { sum: 0, count: 0 };
+                }
+                categoryStats[cat].sum += brier;
+                categoryStats[cat].count++;
+            }
+            streakCurrent = currentStreak;
+            const brierScore = resolvedPredictions > 0 ? brierSum / resolvedPredictions : undefined;
+            const accuracy = resolvedPredictions > 0 ? correctPredictions / resolvedPredictions : undefined;
+            // Find best/worst category
+            let bestCategory;
+            let worstCategory;
+            let bestBrier = Infinity;
+            let worstBrier = -Infinity;
+            for (const [cat, stats] of Object.entries(categoryStats)) {
+                if (stats.count >= 3) { // Minimum 3 predictions to count
+                    const avgBrier = stats.sum / stats.count;
+                    if (avgBrier < bestBrier) {
+                        bestBrier = avgBrier;
+                        bestCategory = cat;
+                    }
+                    if (avgBrier > worstBrier) {
+                        worstBrier = avgBrier;
+                        worstCategory = cat;
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+            // Upsert stats
+            database.run(`INSERT INTO acp_prediction_stats
+         (agent_id, total_predictions, resolved_predictions, correct_predictions,
+          brier_score, brier_sum, accuracy, best_category, worst_category,
+          streak_current, streak_best, updated_at)
+         VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
+         ON CONFLICT(agent_id) DO UPDATE SET
+           total_predictions = excluded.total_predictions,
+           resolved_predictions = excluded.resolved_predictions,
+           correct_predictions = excluded.correct_predictions,
+           brier_score = excluded.brier_score,
+           brier_sum = excluded.brier_sum,
+           accuracy = excluded.accuracy,
+           best_category = excluded.best_category,
+           worst_category = excluded.worst_category,
+           streak_current = excluded.streak_current,
+           streak_best = excluded.streak_best,
+           updated_at = excluded.updated_at`, [agentId, totalPredictions, resolvedPredictions, correctPredictions,
+                brierScore ?? null, brierSum, accuracy ?? null, bestCategory || null, worstCategory || null,
+                streakCurrent, streakBest, now]);
+            return {
+                agentId,
+                totalPredictions,
+                resolvedPredictions,
+                correctPredictions,
+                brierScore,
+                brierSum,
+                accuracy,
+                bestCategory,
+                worstCategory,
+                streakCurrent,
+                streakBest,
+                updatedAt: now,
+            };
+        },
+        async getLeaderboard(limit = 20) {
+            const database = getDb();
+            // Only include agents with at least 5 resolved predictions
+            const rows = database.query(`SELECT s.*, h.handle
+         FROM acp_prediction_stats s
+         LEFT JOIN acp_handles h ON s.agent_id = h.agent_id
+         WHERE s.resolved_predictions >= 5
+         ORDER BY s.brier_score ASC
+         LIMIT ?`, [limit]);
+            return rows.map(row => ({
+                ...rowToStats(row),
+                handle: row.handle || undefined,
+            }));
+        },
+    };
+}
+function rowToPrediction(row) {
+    return {
+        id: row.id,
+        agentId: row.agent_id,
+        marketSlug: row.market_slug,
+        marketTitle: row.market_title,
+        marketCategory: row.market_category || undefined,
+        probability: row.probability,
+        rationale: row.rationale,
+        outcome: row.outcome ?? undefined,
+        brierContribution: row.brier_contribution ?? undefined,
+        resolvedAt: row.resolved_at ?? undefined,
+        createdAt: row.created_at,
+        updatedAt: row.updated_at,
+    };
+}
+function rowToStats(row) {
+    return {
+        agentId: row.agent_id,
+        totalPredictions: row.total_predictions,
+        resolvedPredictions: row.resolved_predictions,
+        correctPredictions: row.correct_predictions,
+        brierScore: row.brier_score ?? undefined,
+        brierSum: row.brier_sum,
+        accuracy: row.accuracy ?? undefined,
+        bestCategory: row.best_category || undefined,
+        worstCategory: row.worst_category || undefined,
+        streakCurrent: row.streak_current,
+        streakBest: row.streak_best,
+        updatedAt: row.updated_at,
+    };
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// SINGLETON
+// =============================================================================
+let predictionService = null;
+function getPredictionService() {
+    if (!predictionService) {
+        predictionService = createPredictionService();
+    }
+    return predictionService;
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// BRIER SCORE UTILITIES
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Calculate Brier score for a single prediction
+ * BS = (probability - outcome)²
+ *
+ * @param probability - Predicted probability (0 to 1)
+ * @param outcome - Actual outcome (0 or 1)
+ * @returns Brier score contribution (0 = perfect, 1 = worst)
+ */
+function calculateBrierContribution(probability, outcome) {
+    return Math.pow(probability - outcome, 2);
+}
+/**
+ * Interpret a Brier score
+ *
+ * @param score - Average Brier score
+ * @returns Human-readable interpretation
+ */
+function interpretBrierScore(score) {
+    if (score < 0.1)
+        return 'Excellent (near-perfect calibration)';
+    if (score < 0.15)
+        return 'Very Good';
+    if (score < 0.2)
+        return 'Good';
+    if (score < 0.25)
+        return 'Average (random guessing = 0.25)';
+    if (score < 0.3)
+        return 'Below Average';
+    if (score < 0.4)
+        return 'Poor';
+    return 'Very Poor';
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=predictions.js.map

package/dist/acp/predictions.js.map

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package/dist/acp/registry.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
+/**
+ * Agent Registry for Agent Commerce Protocol
+ *
+ * Registry for agents to list and discover services:
+ * - Register agent capabilities
+ * - List services with pricing
+ * - Search by capability/price/reputation
+ * - Track service history and ratings
+ */
+export type AgentStatus = 'active' | 'inactive' | 'suspended';
+export type ServiceCategory = 'compute' | 'data' | 'analytics' | 'trading' | 'content' | 'research' | 'automation' | 'other';
+export interface AgentCapability {
+    id: string;
+    name: string;
+    description: string;
+    category: ServiceCategory;
+    version?: string;
+}
+export interface ServicePricing {
+    model: 'per_request' | 'per_minute' | 'per_token' | 'flat' | 'custom';
+    amount: string;
+    currency: string;
+    minimumCharge?: string;
+    maximumCharge?: string;
+}
+export interface ServiceListing {
+    id: string;
+    agentId: string;
+    capability: AgentCapability;
+    pricing: ServicePricing;
+    description: string;
+    endpoint?: string;
+    sla?: {
+        availabilityPercent: number;
+        maxResponseTimeMs: number;
+        maxThroughput?: number;
+    };
+    enabled: boolean;
+    createdAt: number;
+    updatedAt: number;
+}
+export interface AgentProfile {
+    id: string;
+    address: string;
+    name: string;
+    description?: string;
+    avatar?: string;
+    website?: string;
+    capabilities: AgentCapability[];
+    services: ServiceListing[];
+    status: AgentStatus;
+    reputation: AgentReputation;
+    metadata?: Record<string, unknown>;
+    createdAt: number;
+    updatedAt: number;
+}
+export interface AgentReputation {
+    totalTransactions: number;
+    successfulTransactions: number;
+    averageRating: number;
+    totalRatings: number;
+    responseTimeAvgMs: number;
+    disputeRate: number;
+}
+export interface ServiceRating {
+    id: string;
+    serviceId: string;
+    raterAddress: string;
+    rating: number;
+    review?: string;
+    transactionId?: string;
+    createdAt: number;
+}
+export interface SearchFilters {
+    category?: ServiceCategory;
+    capabilities?: string[];
+    maxPrice?: string;
+    minRating?: number;
+    minTransactions?: number;
+    status?: AgentStatus;
+    query?: string;
+}
+export interface RegistryService {
+    registerAgent(profile: Omit<AgentProfile, 'id' | 'reputation' | 'createdAt' | 'updatedAt'>): Promise<AgentProfile>;
+    getAgent(agentId: string): Promise<AgentProfile | null>;
+    getAgentByAddress(address: string): Promise<AgentProfile | null>;
+    updateAgent(agentId: string, updates: Partial<AgentProfile>): Promise<AgentProfile>;
+    deactivateAgent(agentId: string): Promise<void>;
+    listService(agentId: string, service: Omit<ServiceListing, 'id' | 'agentId' | 'createdAt' | 'updatedAt'>): Promise<ServiceListing>;
+    getService(serviceId: string): Promise<ServiceListing | null>;
+    updateService(serviceId: string, updates: Partial<ServiceListing>): Promise<ServiceListing>;
+    removeService(serviceId: string): Promise<void>;
+    searchAgents(filters: SearchFilters): Promise<AgentProfile[]>;
+    searchServices(filters: SearchFilters): Promise<ServiceListing[]>;
+    getTopAgents(category?: ServiceCategory, limit?: number): Promise<AgentProfile[]>;
+    getServicesByCapability(capability: string): Promise<ServiceListing[]>;
+    rateService(serviceId: string, raterAddress: string, rating: number, review?: string, transactionId?: string): Promise<ServiceRating>;
+    getServiceRatings(serviceId: string): Promise<ServiceRating[]>;
+    getAgentRatings(agentId: string): Promise<ServiceRating[]>;
+    recordTransaction(agentId: string, success: boolean, responseTimeMs?: number): Promise<void>;
+    getStats(): Promise<RegistryStats>;
+}
+export interface RegistryStats {
+    totalAgents: number;
+    activeAgents: number;
+    totalServices: number;
+    activeServices: number;
+    totalTransactions: number;
+    byCategory: Record<ServiceCategory, number>;
+}
+export declare function createRegistryService(): RegistryService;
+export declare function getRegistryService(): RegistryService;
+/**
+ * Create a capability definition
+ */
+export declare function createCapability(name: string, category: ServiceCategory, description: string, version?: string): AgentCapability;
+/**
+ * Create pricing configuration
+ */
+export declare function createPricing(model: ServicePricing['model'], amount: string, currency?: string): ServicePricing;
+/**
+ * Common capabilities
+ */
+export declare const CommonCapabilities: {
+    llmInference: AgentCapability;
+    imageGeneration: AgentCapability;
+    codeExecution: AgentCapability;
+    priceFeeds: AgentCapability;
+    onChainData: AgentCapability;
+    socialData: AgentCapability;
+    technicalAnalysis: AgentCapability;
+    sentimentAnalysis: AgentCapability;
+    riskAnalysis: AgentCapability;
+    orderExecution: AgentCapability;
+    copyTrading: AgentCapability;
+    arbitrage: AgentCapability;
+    contentGeneration: AgentCapability;
+    translation: AgentCapability;
+    marketResearch: AgentCapability;
+    tokenResearch: AgentCapability;
+    alerts: AgentCapability;
+    scheduling: AgentCapability;
+};