causantic 0.2.0

package/dist/eval/experiments/edge-decay/retrieval-ranking.js

@@ -0,0 +1,565 @@
+/**
+ * Retrieval ranking experiment for edge decay validation.
+ *
+ * Tests whether decay-weighted ranking of candidate turns
+ * correlates with actual turn-to-turn references.
+ */
+import { calculateWeight } from './decay-curves.js';
+import { MS_PER_MINUTE, MS_PER_HOUR, MS_PER_DAY } from './types.js';
+/**
+ * Filter references to focus on long-range retrieval scenarios.
+ * This simulates what the memory system actually needs to retrieve —
+ * context that's NOT in Claude's immediate context window.
+ */
+export function filterLongRangeReferences(sessions, options = {}) {
+    const { minTurnDistance = 1, minTimeGapMs = 0, excludeAdjacent = false, highConfidenceOnly = false, } = options;
+    return sessions.map(session => {
+        const filteredRefs = session.references.filter(ref => {
+            // Check turn distance
+            const turnDistance = ref.userTurnIndex - ref.referencedTurnIndex;
+            if (turnDistance < minTurnDistance)
+                return false;
+            // Check time gap
+            if (ref.timeGapMs < minTimeGapMs)
+                return false;
+            // Exclude adjacent type if requested
+            if (excludeAdjacent && ref.referenceType === 'adjacent')
+                return false;
+            // High confidence only
+            if (highConfidenceOnly && ref.confidence !== 'high')
+                return false;
+            return true;
+        });
+        return {
+            ...session,
+            references: filteredRefs,
+        };
+    });
+}
+/**
+ * Build a map from query turn to its referenced turns.
+ */
+function buildReferenceMap(references) {
+    const map = new Map();
+    for (const ref of references) {
+        if (!map.has(ref.userTurnIndex)) {
+            map.set(ref.userTurnIndex, new Set());
+        }
+        map.get(ref.userTurnIndex).add(ref.referencedTurnIndex);
+    }
+    return map;
+}
+/**
+ * Build a map from query turn to time gaps for each candidate.
+ */
+function buildTimeGapMap(references, turnCount) {
+    const map = new Map();
+    // Initialize from explicit references
+    for (const ref of references) {
+        if (!map.has(ref.userTurnIndex)) {
+            map.set(ref.userTurnIndex, new Map());
+        }
+        map.get(ref.userTurnIndex).set(ref.referencedTurnIndex, ref.timeGapMs);
+    }
+    return map;
+}
+/**
+ * Evaluate a single query turn against all candidates using a decay model.
+ */
+function evaluateQuery(queryTurnIndex, candidateTurnIndices, relevantTurns, timeGaps, decayModel) {
+    // Score each candidate
+    const candidates = candidateTurnIndices.map(turnIndex => {
+        const timeGapMs = timeGaps.get(turnIndex) ?? 0;
+        const decayWeight = calculateWeight(decayModel, timeGapMs);
+        const isRelevant = relevantTurns.has(turnIndex);
+        return {
+            turnIndex,
+            timeGapMs,
+            decayWeight,
+            isRelevant,
+        };
+    });
+    // Sort by decay weight (descending)
+    candidates.sort((a, b) => b.decayWeight - a.decayWeight);
+    // Find rank of first relevant turn
+    let firstRelevantRank = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < candidates.length; i++) {
+        if (candidates[i].isRelevant) {
+            firstRelevantRank = i + 1; // 1-indexed rank
+            break;
+        }
+    }
+    const reciprocalRank = firstRelevantRank > 0 ? 1 / firstRelevantRank : 0;
+    return {
+        queryTurnIndex,
+        relevantTurns: [...relevantTurns],
+        rankedCandidates: candidates,
+        reciprocalRank,
+        firstRelevantRank,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Run retrieval ranking experiment for a single decay model.
+ */
+export function evaluateRetrievalRanking(sessions, decayModel) {
+    const evaluations = [];
+    let totalRR = 0;
+    let queriesWithRelevant = 0;
+    const rankDistribution = {
+        rank1: 0,
+        rank2_5: 0,
+        rank6_10: 0,
+        rank11_plus: 0,
+    };
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        const referenceMap = buildReferenceMap(session.references);
+        const timeGapMap = buildTimeGapMap(session.references, session.turnCount);
+        // For each query turn that has references
+        for (const [queryTurnIndex, relevantTurns] of referenceMap) {
+            // Skip if no relevant turns
+            if (relevantTurns.size === 0)
+                continue;
+            // Candidates are all turns before the query
+            const candidateTurnIndices = Array.from({ length: queryTurnIndex }, (_, i) => i);
+            if (candidateTurnIndices.length === 0)
+                continue;
+            // Get time gaps for this query
+            const timeGaps = timeGapMap.get(queryTurnIndex) ?? new Map();
+            // For candidates without explicit time gaps, estimate from reference data
+            // (This shouldn't happen often since we extract time gaps during reference extraction)
+            for (const candidateIdx of candidateTurnIndices) {
+                if (!timeGaps.has(candidateIdx)) {
+                    // Find a reference with known time gap to estimate
+                    const knownRef = session.references.find(r => r.userTurnIndex === queryTurnIndex && r.referencedTurnIndex !== candidateIdx);
+                    if (knownRef) {
+                        // Estimate based on turn distance ratio
+                        const refTurnDist = queryTurnIndex - knownRef.referencedTurnIndex;
+                        const thisTurnDist = queryTurnIndex - candidateIdx;
+                        const estimatedGap = (knownRef.timeGapMs / refTurnDist) * thisTurnDist;
+                        timeGaps.set(candidateIdx, estimatedGap);
+                    }
+                    else {
+                        // Default to 5 minutes per turn distance
+                        timeGaps.set(candidateIdx, (queryTurnIndex - candidateIdx) * 5 * MS_PER_MINUTE);
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+            const evaluation = evaluateQuery(queryTurnIndex, candidateTurnIndices, relevantTurns, timeGaps, decayModel);
+            evaluations.push(evaluation);
+            totalRR += evaluation.reciprocalRank;
+            if (evaluation.firstRelevantRank > 0) {
+                queriesWithRelevant++;
+                if (evaluation.firstRelevantRank === 1) {
+                    rankDistribution.rank1++;
+                }
+                else if (evaluation.firstRelevantRank <= 5) {
+                    rankDistribution.rank2_5++;
+                }
+                else if (evaluation.firstRelevantRank <= 10) {
+                    rankDistribution.rank6_10++;
+                }
+                else {
+                    rankDistribution.rank11_plus++;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    const mrr = evaluations.length > 0 ? totalRR / evaluations.length : 0;
+    return {
+        modelId: decayModel.id,
+        modelName: decayModel.name,
+        mrr,
+        queryCount: evaluations.length,
+        queriesWithRelevant,
+        rankDistribution,
+        evaluations,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Run retrieval ranking experiment for multiple decay models.
+ */
+export function compareRetrievalRanking(sessions, decayModels, verbose = true) {
+    const results = [];
+    for (const model of decayModels) {
+        if (verbose) {
+            console.log(`  Evaluating ${model.name}...`);
+        }
+        const result = evaluateRetrievalRanking(sessions, model);
+        results.push(result);
+        if (verbose) {
+            console.log(`    MRR: ${result.mrr.toFixed(3)}, Queries: ${result.queryCount}`);
+        }
+    }
+    return results;
+}
+/**
+ * Time offset bins for correlation analysis.
+ */
+const TIME_OFFSET_BINS = [
+    { label: '0-5min', minMs: 0, maxMs: 5 * MS_PER_MINUTE },
+    { label: '5-30min', minMs: 5 * MS_PER_MINUTE, maxMs: 30 * MS_PER_MINUTE },
+    { label: '30min-1h', minMs: 30 * MS_PER_MINUTE, maxMs: MS_PER_HOUR },
+    { label: '1-4h', minMs: MS_PER_HOUR, maxMs: 4 * MS_PER_HOUR },
+    { label: '4-24h', minMs: 4 * MS_PER_HOUR, maxMs: MS_PER_DAY },
+    { label: '1-7d', minMs: MS_PER_DAY, maxMs: 7 * MS_PER_DAY },
+];
+/**
+ * Compute Spearman rank correlation between two arrays.
+ */
+function spearmanCorrelation(x, y) {
+    if (x.length !== y.length || x.length < 2)
+        return 0;
+    const n = x.length;
+    // Compute ranks
+    const rankX = computeRanks(x);
+    const rankY = computeRanks(y);
+    // Compute d^2
+    let sumD2 = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const d = rankX[i] - rankY[i];
+        sumD2 += d * d;
+    }
+    // Spearman formula: 1 - (6 * sum(d^2)) / (n * (n^2 - 1))
+    return 1 - (6 * sumD2) / (n * (n * n - 1));
+}
+/**
+ * Compute ranks for an array of values.
+ */
+function computeRanks(values) {
+    const indexed = values.map((v, i) => ({ value: v, index: i }));
+    indexed.sort((a, b) => a.value - b.value);
+    const ranks = new Array(values.length);
+    for (let i = 0; i < indexed.length; i++) {
+        ranks[indexed[i].index] = i + 1;
+    }
+    return ranks;
+}
+/**
+ * Run time-offset correlation experiment.
+ */
+export function evaluateTimeOffsetCorrelation(sessions, decayModels) {
+    // Initialize bins
+    const bins = TIME_OFFSET_BINS.map(b => ({
+        ...b,
+        pairCount: 0,
+        referenceRate: 0,
+        meanDecayWeights: {},
+    }));
+    // For each model, accumulate decay weights per bin
+    const decayWeightSums = {};
+    for (const model of decayModels) {
+        decayWeightSums[model.id] = bins.map(() => 0);
+    }
+    // Count references in each bin
+    const referenceCounts = bins.map(() => 0);
+    const pairCounts = bins.map(() => 0);
+    // Process all references
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        for (const ref of session.references) {
+            // Find which bin this reference falls into
+            const binIndex = bins.findIndex(b => ref.timeGapMs >= b.minMs && ref.timeGapMs < b.maxMs);
+            if (binIndex >= 0) {
+                referenceCounts[binIndex]++;
+                pairCounts[binIndex]++;
+                // Accumulate decay weights
+                for (const model of decayModels) {
+                    const weight = calculateWeight(model, ref.timeGapMs);
+                    decayWeightSums[model.id][binIndex] += weight;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    // Compute mean decay weights and reference rates
+    for (let i = 0; i < bins.length; i++) {
+        bins[i].pairCount = pairCounts[i];
+        bins[i].referenceRate = pairCounts[i] > 0 ? referenceCounts[i] / pairCounts[i] : 0;
+        for (const model of decayModels) {
+            bins[i].meanDecayWeights[model.id] = pairCounts[i] > 0
+                ? decayWeightSums[model.id][i] / pairCounts[i]
+                : 0;
+        }
+    }
+    // Compute correlations
+    const correlations = {};
+    const referenceRates = bins.map(b => b.referenceRate);
+    for (const model of decayModels) {
+        const decayWeights = bins.map(b => b.meanDecayWeights[model.id]);
+        correlations[model.id] = spearmanCorrelation(referenceRates, decayWeights);
+    }
+    return { bins, correlations };
+}
+/**
+ * Format retrieval ranking results as a comparison table.
+ */
+export function formatRetrievalRankingTable(results) {
+    const lines = [];
+    // Header
+    lines.push('='.repeat(90));
+    lines.push('  RETRIEVAL RANKING COMPARISON (Mean Reciprocal Rank)');
+    lines.push('='.repeat(90));
+    const header = [
+        'Model'.padEnd(25),
+        'MRR'.padEnd(10),
+        'Queries'.padEnd(10),
+        'Rank@1'.padEnd(10),
+        'Rank@2-5'.padEnd(10),
+        'Rank@6-10'.padEnd(10),
+        'Rank@11+'.padEnd(10),
+    ].join(' | ');
+    lines.push(header);
+    lines.push('-'.repeat(90));
+    // Sort by MRR descending
+    const sorted = [...results].sort((a, b) => b.mrr - a.mrr);
+    for (const result of sorted) {
+        const row = [
+            result.modelName.slice(0, 25).padEnd(25),
+            result.mrr.toFixed(3).padEnd(10),
+            result.queryCount.toString().padEnd(10),
+            result.rankDistribution.rank1.toString().padEnd(10),
+            result.rankDistribution.rank2_5.toString().padEnd(10),
+            result.rankDistribution.rank6_10.toString().padEnd(10),
+            result.rankDistribution.rank11_plus.toString().padEnd(10),
+        ].join(' | ');
+        lines.push(row);
+    }
+    lines.push('='.repeat(90));
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+/**
+ * Format time-offset correlation results.
+ */
+export function formatTimeOffsetTable(result, decayModels) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push('='.repeat(100));
+    lines.push('  TIME-OFFSET CORRELATION');
+    lines.push('='.repeat(100));
+    // Header
+    const modelHeaders = decayModels.map(m => m.name.slice(0, 12).padEnd(12)).join(' | ');
+    const header = `${'Time Bin'.padEnd(12)} | ${'Pairs'.padEnd(8)} | ${'Ref Rate'.padEnd(8)} | ${modelHeaders}`;
+    lines.push(header);
+    lines.push('-'.repeat(100));
+    // Rows
+    for (const bin of result.bins) {
+        const weights = decayModels.map(m => bin.meanDecayWeights[m.id].toFixed(3).padEnd(12)).join(' | ');
+        const row = [
+            bin.label.padEnd(12),
+            bin.pairCount.toString().padEnd(8),
+            bin.referenceRate.toFixed(3).padEnd(8),
+            weights,
+        ].join(' | ');
+        lines.push(row);
+    }
+    lines.push('-'.repeat(100));
+    // Correlations
+    const corrValues = decayModels.map(m => result.correlations[m.id].toFixed(3).padEnd(12)).join(' | ');
+    lines.push(`${'Correlation'.padEnd(12)} | ${''.padEnd(8)} | ${''.padEnd(8)} | ${corrValues}`);
+    lines.push('='.repeat(100));
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+// ============================================================
+// FORWARD QUERY EVALUATION
+// ============================================================
+//
+// Forward queries ask: "Given this turn, which FUTURE turns will reference it?"
+// This is a prediction task - we don't know what's coming.
+// Hypothesis: Exponential decay better models prediction uncertainty.
+/**
+ * Build a map from source turn to future turns that reference it.
+ * This is the reverse of the backward reference map.
+ *
+ * Backward: userTurnIndex → referencedTurnIndex (what past turns did I reference?)
+ * Forward: referencedTurnIndex → userTurnIndex (what future turns will reference me?)
+ */
+function buildForwardReferenceMap(references) {
+    const map = new Map();
+    for (const ref of references) {
+        // Key is the referenced turn (source), value is set of future turns that reference it
+        if (!map.has(ref.referencedTurnIndex)) {
+            map.set(ref.referencedTurnIndex, new Set());
+        }
+        map.get(ref.referencedTurnIndex).add(ref.userTurnIndex);
+    }
+    return map;
+}
+/**
+ * Build time gap map for forward queries.
+ * Maps source turn → future turn → time gap.
+ */
+function buildForwardTimeGapMap(references) {
+    const map = new Map();
+    for (const ref of references) {
+        if (!map.has(ref.referencedTurnIndex)) {
+            map.set(ref.referencedTurnIndex, new Map());
+        }
+        map.get(ref.referencedTurnIndex).set(ref.userTurnIndex, ref.timeGapMs);
+    }
+    return map;
+}
+/**
+ * Evaluate forward prediction for a single source turn.
+ * Given turn T, predict which future turns will reference it.
+ */
+function evaluateForwardQuery(sourceTurnIndex, candidateFutureTurns, actualReferencingTurns, timeGaps, decayModel) {
+    // Score each candidate future turn
+    const candidates = candidateFutureTurns.map(futureTurnIndex => {
+        const timeGapMs = timeGaps.get(futureTurnIndex) ?? 0;
+        const decayWeight = calculateWeight(decayModel, timeGapMs);
+        const isRelevant = actualReferencingTurns.has(futureTurnIndex);
+        return {
+            turnIndex: futureTurnIndex,
+            timeGapMs,
+            decayWeight,
+            isRelevant,
+        };
+    });
+    // Sort by decay weight (descending) - higher weight = more likely to reference
+    candidates.sort((a, b) => b.decayWeight - a.decayWeight);
+    // Find rank of first relevant (actually referencing) turn
+    let firstRelevantRank = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < candidates.length; i++) {
+        if (candidates[i].isRelevant) {
+            firstRelevantRank = i + 1;
+            break;
+        }
+    }
+    const reciprocalRank = firstRelevantRank > 0 ? 1 / firstRelevantRank : 0;
+    return {
+        queryTurnIndex: sourceTurnIndex,
+        relevantTurns: [...actualReferencingTurns],
+        rankedCandidates: candidates,
+        reciprocalRank,
+        firstRelevantRank,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Run forward prediction experiment for a single decay model.
+ *
+ * For each turn that gets referenced by future turns:
+ * - Predict which future turns will reference it (using decay weights)
+ * - Measure if actual referencing turns rank highly
+ */
+export function evaluateForwardPrediction(sessions, decayModel) {
+    const evaluations = [];
+    let totalRR = 0;
+    let queriesWithRelevant = 0;
+    const rankDistribution = {
+        rank1: 0,
+        rank2_5: 0,
+        rank6_10: 0,
+        rank11_plus: 0,
+    };
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        const forwardMap = buildForwardReferenceMap(session.references);
+        const timeGapMap = buildForwardTimeGapMap(session.references);
+        // For each source turn that has future references
+        for (const [sourceTurnIndex, referencingTurns] of forwardMap) {
+            if (referencingTurns.size === 0)
+                continue;
+            // Candidates are all turns after the source
+            const candidateFutureTurns = Array.from({ length: session.turnCount - sourceTurnIndex - 1 }, (_, i) => sourceTurnIndex + 1 + i);
+            if (candidateFutureTurns.length === 0)
+                continue;
+            // Get time gaps for this source turn
+            const timeGaps = timeGapMap.get(sourceTurnIndex) ?? new Map();
+            // Estimate time gaps for candidates without explicit references
+            for (const futureIdx of candidateFutureTurns) {
+                if (!timeGaps.has(futureIdx)) {
+                    // Find a reference with known time gap to estimate
+                    const knownRef = session.references.find(r => r.referencedTurnIndex === sourceTurnIndex && r.userTurnIndex !== futureIdx);
+                    if (knownRef) {
+                        const refTurnDist = knownRef.userTurnIndex - sourceTurnIndex;
+                        const thisTurnDist = futureIdx - sourceTurnIndex;
+                        const estimatedGap = (knownRef.timeGapMs / refTurnDist) * thisTurnDist;
+                        timeGaps.set(futureIdx, estimatedGap);
+                    }
+                    else {
+                        // Default to 5 minutes per turn distance
+                        timeGaps.set(futureIdx, (futureIdx - sourceTurnIndex) * 5 * MS_PER_MINUTE);
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+            const evaluation = evaluateForwardQuery(sourceTurnIndex, candidateFutureTurns, referencingTurns, timeGaps, decayModel);
+            evaluations.push(evaluation);
+            totalRR += evaluation.reciprocalRank;
+            if (evaluation.firstRelevantRank > 0) {
+                queriesWithRelevant++;
+                if (evaluation.firstRelevantRank === 1) {
+                    rankDistribution.rank1++;
+                }
+                else if (evaluation.firstRelevantRank <= 5) {
+                    rankDistribution.rank2_5++;
+                }
+                else if (evaluation.firstRelevantRank <= 10) {
+                    rankDistribution.rank6_10++;
+                }
+                else {
+                    rankDistribution.rank11_plus++;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    const mrr = evaluations.length > 0 ? totalRR / evaluations.length : 0;
+    return {
+        modelId: decayModel.id,
+        modelName: decayModel.name,
+        mrr,
+        queryCount: evaluations.length,
+        queriesWithRelevant,
+        rankDistribution,
+        evaluations,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Run forward prediction experiment for multiple decay models.
+ */
+export function compareForwardPrediction(sessions, decayModels, verbose = true) {
+    const results = [];
+    for (const model of decayModels) {
+        if (verbose) {
+            console.log(`  Evaluating ${model.name}...`);
+        }
+        const result = evaluateForwardPrediction(sessions, model);
+        results.push(result);
+        if (verbose) {
+            console.log(`    MRR: ${result.mrr.toFixed(3)}, Queries: ${result.queryCount}`);
+        }
+    }
+    return results;
+}
+/**
+ * Format comparison of backward vs forward results.
+ */
+export function formatDirectionalComparison(backwardResults, forwardResults) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push('='.repeat(100));
+    lines.push('  DIRECTIONAL COMPARISON: Backward (Retrieval) vs Forward (Prediction)');
+    lines.push('='.repeat(100));
+    const header = [
+        'Model'.padEnd(25),
+        'Backward MRR'.padEnd(14),
+        'Forward MRR'.padEnd(14),
+        'Δ'.padEnd(10),
+        'Better For'.padEnd(15),
+    ].join(' | ');
+    lines.push(header);
+    lines.push('-'.repeat(100));
+    // Match results by model ID
+    for (const backward of backwardResults) {
+        const forward = forwardResults.find(f => f.modelId === backward.modelId);
+        if (!forward)
+            continue;
+        const delta = forward.mrr - backward.mrr;
+        const betterFor = delta > 0.01 ? 'Forward' : delta < -0.01 ? 'Backward' : 'Similar';
+        const row = [
+            backward.modelName.slice(0, 25).padEnd(25),
+            backward.mrr.toFixed(3).padEnd(14),
+            forward.mrr.toFixed(3).padEnd(14),
+            (delta >= 0 ? '+' : '') + delta.toFixed(3).padEnd(9),
+            betterFor.padEnd(15),
+        ].join(' | ');
+        lines.push(row);
+    }
+    lines.push('='.repeat(100));
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=retrieval-ranking.js.map

package/dist/eval/experiments/edge-decay/retrieval-ranking.js.map

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package/dist/eval/experiments/edge-decay/run-experiments.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+/**
+ * Main experiment runner for edge decay validation.
+ */
+import type { DecayModelConfig } from './types.js';
+import type { EdgeDecayExperimentResults } from './reference-types.js';
+import { type SessionSource } from './reference-extractor.js';
+export interface ExperimentOptions {
+    /** Decay models to evaluate. Defaults to all presets. */
+    decayModels?: DecayModelConfig[];
+    /** Whether to run time-offset correlation experiment. */
+    runTimeOffsetCorrelation?: boolean;
+    /** Whether to run stratified analysis by context distance. */
+    runStratifiedAnalysis?: boolean;
+    /** Whether to run forward prediction experiment (directional comparison). */
+    runDirectionalAnalysis?: boolean;
+    /** Verbose output. */
+    verbose?: boolean;
+}
+/**
+ * Run the complete edge decay validation experiment.
+ */
+export declare function runEdgeDecayExperiments(sessions: SessionSource[], options?: ExperimentOptions): Promise<EdgeDecayExperimentResults>;
+export { extractReferences, computeReferenceStats } from './reference-extractor.js';
+export { compareRetrievalRanking, evaluateTimeOffsetCorrelation } from './retrieval-ranking.js';
+//# sourceMappingURL=run-experiments.d.ts.map

package/dist/eval/experiments/edge-decay/run-experiments.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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